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DOE OSTI2026

A Nonparametric Method for the Inference of Halo Occupation Distributions

The galaxy–halo connection traces processes by which galaxies form and evolve. The halo occupation distribution (HOD) describes the relationship between galaxies and their host dark matter haloes. Measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function (2PCF) allow us to extract information about the HODs of observed galaxy samples. Several parametric HOD models have been proposed in the literature, but the choice of parameterization restricts the space of possible HODs. To resolve this issue, we introduce a nonparametric HOD fitting method in which we train an emulator to learn the mappings among the galaxy 2PCF, physical properties used to select galaxy samples, and the HOD, all obtained from simulated past light cones constructed with the Santa Cruz semianalytic model. Implementing this emulator within a likelihood analysis framework, we derive constraints on the HOD of a galaxy sample when provided with a measurement of its 2PCF. Using the emulator to accelerate likelihood evaluations, we test the nonparametric HOD approach on a set of 2PCFs for mock galaxy samples drawn from the TNG100-1 simulation and selected above threshold values of stellar mass and star formation rate. Our framework is able to recover TNG100-1 HODs within 0.2 dex. We use the TNG100-1 mocks to tune the reported uncertainties to estimate those expected in the analysis of observations. Comparing to parametric HOD modelling routines applied to the same mock galaxy samples, our approach consistently infers the HOD with comparable or greater precision and accuracy.

Kennedy, Jacob [Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Compound Poisson Generator Approach to Point-source Inference in Astrophysics

Abstract The identification and description of point sources is one of the oldest problems in astronomy, yet even today the correct statistical treatment for point sources remains one of the field’s hardest problems. For dim or crowded sources, likelihood-based inference methods are required to estimate the uncertainty on the characteristics of the source population. In this work, a new parametric likelihood is constructed for this problem using compound Poisson generator (CPG) functionals that incorporate instrumental effects from first principles. We demonstrate that the CPG approach exhibits a number of advantages over non-Poissonian template fitting (NPTF)—an existing method—in a series of test scenarios in the context of X-ray astronomy. These demonstrations show that the effect of the point-spread function, effective area, and choice of point-source spatial distribution cannot, generally, be factorized as they are in NPTF, while the new CPG construction is validated in these scenarios. Separately, an examination of the diffuse-flux emission limit is used to show that most simple choices of priors on the standard parameterization of the population model can result in unexpected biases: when a model comprising both a point-source population and diffuse component is applied to this limit, nearly all observed flux will be assigned to either the population or to the diffuse component. A new parameterization is presented for these priors that properly estimates the uncertainties in this limit. In this choice of priors, CPG correctly identifies that the fraction of flux assigned to the population model cannot be constrained by the data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. I. Photometric Methods, Light-curve Distributions, and Trans-Neptunian Binaries

We report the methods of and initial scientific inferences from the extraction of precision photometric information for the >800 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered in the images of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Scene-modeling photometry is used to obtain shot-noise-limited flux measures for each exposure of each TNO, with background sources subtracted. Comparison of double-source fits to the pixel data with single-source fits are used to identify and characterize two binary TNO systems. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method samples the joint likelihood of the intrinsic colors of each source as well as the amplitude of its flux variation, given the time series of multiband flux measurements and their uncertainties. A catalog of these colors and light-curve amplitudes A is included with this publication. We show how to assign a likelihood to the distribution q(A) of light-curve amplitudes in any subpopulation. Using this method, we find decisive evidence (i.e., evidence ratio <0.01) that cold classical (CC) TNOs with absolute magnitude 6 < H$_{r}$ < 8.2 are more variable than the hot classical (HC) population of the same H$_{r}$, reinforcing theories that the former form in situ and the latter arise from a different physical population. Resonant and scattering TNOs in this H$_{r}$ range have variability consistent with either the HCs or CCs. DES TNOs with H$_{r}$ < 6 are seen to be decisively less variable than higher-H$_{r}$ members of any dynamical group, as expected. More surprising is that detached TNOs are decisively less variable than scattering TNOs, which requires them to have distinct source regions or some subsequent differential processing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

A NICER View of the Massive Pulsar PSR J0740+6620 Informed by Radio Timing and XMM-Newton Spectroscopy

We report on Bayesian estimation of the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray Timing Instrument event data. We condition on informative pulsar mass, distance, and orbital inclination priors derived from the joint North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves and Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Pulsar wideband radio timing measurements of Fonseca et al. We use XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera spectroscopic event data to inform our X-ray likelihood function. The prior support of the pulsar radius is truncated at 16 km to ensure coverage of current dense matter models. We assume conservative priors on instrument calibration uncertainty. We constrain the equatorial radius and mass of PSR J0740+6620 to be ${12.39}_{-0.98}^{+1.30}$ km and ${2.072}_{-0.066}^{+0.067}$ M ⊙ respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the 16% and 84% quantiles, conditional on surface hot regions that are non-overlapping spherical caps of fully ionized hydrogen atmosphere with uniform effective temperature; a posteriori, the temperature is ${\mathrm{log}}_{10}(T\,[{\rm{K}}])={5.99}_{-0.06}^{+0.05}$ for each hot region. All software for the X-ray modeling framework is open-source and all data, model, and sample information is publicly available, including analysis notebooks and model modules in the Python language. Furthermore, our marginal likelihood function of mass and equatorial radius is proportional to the marginal joint posterior density of those parameters (within the prior support) and can thus be computed from the posterior samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using predictions of outcomes of cache memory access requests for controlling whether a request generator sends memory access requests to a memory in parallel with cache memory access requests

An electronic device handles memory access requests for data in a memory. The electronic device includes a memory controller for the memory, a last-level cache memory, a request generator, and a predictor. The predictor determines a likelihood that a cache memory access request for data at a given address will hit in the last-level cache memory. Based on the likelihood, the predictor determines: whether a memory access request is to be sent by the request generator to the memory controller for the data in parallel with the cache memory access request being resolved in the last-level cache memory, and, when the memory access request is to be sent, a type of memory access request that is to be sent. When the memory access request is to be sent, the predictor causes the request generator to send a memory request of the type to the memory controller.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven delta-generalized labeled multi-bernoulli tracker

A system and method for tracking a plurality of objects. Unlabeled measurement data identifying a plurality of targets corresponding to the plurality of objects is received. A multi-target likelihood function is generated using a persistent target density, a birth target density, and a clutter density. The multi-target likelihood function is used to associate persistent targets with the unlabeled measurement data to update persistent tracks and to initiate a new track for each target in the plurality of targets in the measurement data that is not associated with a persistent target.

LeGrand, Keith Allen↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design Readiness And Maturity Assessment (DRAMA) Tool for Advanced Reactors

Abstract – This research is developing a formal, repeatable method to assess the readiness and maturity of an advanced nuclear reactor design for licensing and deployment. This design readiness and maturity assessment (DRAMA) tool will be capable of determining the readiness of the design and of all parties needed to bring a particular advanced reactor design to fruition. Beneficiaries and stakeholders include the design team, research organizations (required to collect needed data and develop design tools), standards organizations, research facilities to support gathering of needed data, supply chain and construction organizations, and everyone responsible for legal and regulatory infrastructure (including defining import-export requirements). Recent experience has shown that even the most experienced engineering and construction organizations, with decades of experience in the nuclear power business, have had significant challenges in bringing designs to completion, licensing the designs, and constructing new plants. For new entries into the field, simply understanding the unique environmental and regulatory requirements have been daunting. A significant part of the challenge is that new entries into the market do not know what they don't know. This tool will provide design teams a better understanding of their readiness to proceed to licensing (and other steps in the process), while at the same time providing a valuable metric for other interested organizations, such as funding agencies, national regulators, and international markets. The DRAMA tool will provide an assessment of the likelihood of successfully completing licensing and deployment and will also create the capability to assess the ability of regulatory infrastructure and the supply chain to support the deployment of any design or class of designs. It will also help prioritize research and policy efforts to improve the likelihood of deployment of the next generation of advanced reactors.

Arndt, Steven↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dihadron beam spin asymmetries on an unpolarized hydrogen target with CLAS12

The semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering process, where an electron scatters off a proton target at high enough energy that the process can be described by the scattering off a single constituent particle, offers targeted access to the internal structure of the nucleon. The process can be described in two phases by parton distribution functions (PDFs), which describe the likelihood of finding a quark or gluon in a particular state inside of the nucleon and then by fragmentation functions (FFs) which describe the likelihood of forming a particular final state particle.

Hayward, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of 3-Flavour Neutrino Oscillation Parameters in the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment consisting of two functionally identical tracking calorimeters, a Near and Far Detector, that measure neutrino interactions induced by the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory’s NuMI beam at baselines of 1 km and 810 km, respectively. The NuMI beam can be configured to produce either a primary ν µ neutrino or $\bar{ν}$ µ anti-neutrino beam. Neutrino oscillations are observed and measured by the analysis of ν µ + $\bar{ν}$ µ disappearance and νe + $\bar{ν}$ e appearance in the beam, comparing the neutrino energy spectra in the Near and Far detectors means that neutrino oscillation parameters sin 2 θ 23 , |Δ$m^2_{32}$|, and δ CP can be constrained. This thesis presents the 2018 NOvA ν µ +$\bar{ν}$ µ disappearance, ν e +$\bar{ν}$ e appearance, and combined analyses using both neutrino and anti-neutrino data, where oscillation fits have been performed, where possible, on an event-by-event basis rather than on a bin-by-bin basis as has conventionally been used in NOvA oscillation analyses. This allows for better precision in applying both neutrino oscillation probabilities and systematic uncertainties. Furthermore, oscillation analyses for the disappearance, appearance, and combined channels are presented using an unbinned likelihood fit and compared with the equivalent binned χ 2 likelihood fit used in the standard analysis. The 14 ktonne detector equivalent beam exposures used for this thesis are 8.85 × 10 20 and 6.91 × 10 20 protons on target for neutrino and antineutrino data respectively, corresponding to 5 years of NOvA data taking. A combined ν µ + $\bar{ν}$ µ disappearance and ν e + $\bar{ν}$ e appearance fit to the Far Detector data, assuming normal mass ordering and using the event-by-event oscillation and unbinned fitting methodologies, produces oscillation parameter constraints of Δ$m^2_{32}$ = (2.50$^{+0.08}_{-0.06}$) × 10 -3 eV 2 , sin 2 θ 23 = 0.59$^{+0.02}_{-0.04}$, and δ CP = 0.72$^{+0.5}_{-0.9}$π.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilidad de que los murcielagos sufran barotraumatismo cerca de palas de aerogeneradores en movimiento (Spanish)

In October 2018, the International Energy Agency Wind Task 34 - Working Together to Resolve the Environmental Effects of Wind Energy (WREN) - organized a virtual forum to discuss the likelihood of bats experiencing barotrauma when flying near moving wind turbine blades. The forum included experts in bat biology and physiology, bat and wind turbine interactions, wind turbine technology, and atmospheric sciences. This educational brief summarizes the discussion during the forum and written comments from those who could not attend. Relevant literature was used to provide additional context when needed. Possible explanations regarding the direct cause of bat mortality at operating wind turbines are (1) blunt force trauma caused by turbine blades striking individual bats, often referred to as collisions, and (2) barotrauma, resulting from exposure to pressure changes located near the surface of moving wind turbine blades. While collision- related mortality is easily understood, the mechanism causing barotrauma is more complex. Fast-moving wind turbine blades create regions of high- and low-pressure variations along the blade surfaces. If bats fly within these regions, the rapid change in pressure may cause internal bleeding, damage to lungs or other organs, and damage to the inner ear. However, sufficient data demonstrating barotrauma as a common cause of bat mortality at wind turbines are lacking. Moreover, the pressure variation necessary to cause barotrauma in bats is so close to the surface of turbine blades that there is a higher probability of direct contact with the blades than of solely experiencing barotrauma. Regardless of the cause, bats are interacting with fast-moving wind turbine blades, and these interactions are resulting in fatalities. Resolving this issue will require a better understanding of bat behavior and cost-effective measures to reduce interactions between bats and wind turbines. This is the Spanish translation of NREL/FS-5000-84749, "The Likelihood of Bats Experiencing Barotrauma Near Moving Wind Turbine Blades."

barotrauma↗

DOE OSTI2026

HDSense: An efficient method for ranking observable sensitivity

Identifying which observables most effectively constrain model parameters can be computationally prohibitive when considering full likelihoods of many correlated observables. This is especially important for, e.g., hadronization models, where high precision is required to interpret the results of collider experiments. We introduce the High-Dimensional Sensitivity (HDSense) score, a computationally efficient metric for ranking observable sets using only one-dimensional histograms. Derived by profiling over unknown correlations in the Fisher information framework, the score balances total information content against redundancy between observables. We apply HDSense to rank a set observables in terms of their constraining power with respect to five parameters of the Lund string model of hadronization implemented in Pythia using simulated leptonic collider events at the $Z$ pole. Validation against machine-learning--based full-likelihood approximations demonstrates that HDSense successfully identifies near-optimal observable subsets. The framework naturally handles data from multiple experiments with different acceptances and incorporates detector effects. While demonstrated on hadronization models, the methodology applies broadly to generic parameter estimation problems where correlations are unknown or difficult to model.

Assi, Benoît [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:00000003092433↗

DOE OSTI2026

Smokescreen: A Python package for data vector blinding and encryption in cosmological analyses

Smokescreen is an open-source Python library for data-vector concealment (blinding) in cosmological analyses. Data-vector blinding works by applying cosmology-dependent shifts to the observed data vector, moving it away from the true cosmological signal without affecting its statistical properties, so that analysts cannot infer the true result until the analysis is frozen and the blinding is lifted. The package computes these shifts using Firecrown likelihoods applied to data vectors stored in the SACC format, ensuring that the theoretical model used for blinding is identical to that used for inference whilst remaining agnostic to the specific observable being blinded. To prevent accidental unblinding, the original SACC file, containing the true cosmology, is encrypted. Although developed for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Smokescreen is applicable to any experiment using Firecrown likelihoods and the SACC data format.

Loureiro, Arthur [Stockholm U., OKC; Imperial Coll↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strong Lensing Cosmology with Population-level Calibrated Neural Ratio Estimation

Strong gravitational lensing contains key information about cosmic acceleration. Modern and next-generation galaxy imaging surveys are expected to provide high-quality data on $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ galaxy-galaxy lensing systems. The plethora and complexity of the data are likely to present computational challenges for parameter inference methods for fitting high-dimensional likelihoods, which are often analytically intractable. Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE) efficiently computes individual likelihood ratios that can be combined into population-level posteriors. We use simulations to study the capacity of NRE to jointly predict the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$ and the total matter density $Ω_{m}$ from lensing images and companion spectroscopic information. We also introduce a post hoc posterior coverage calibration procedure that mitigates the model overconfidence that is typically found in neural density estimation applications. Our experiments show that the errors on both parameters decrease with increasing inference population sizes. In particular, for 100 lenses in a standard $Λ$CDM Universe, our calibrated NRE model achieves median fractional uncertainty of $22.8\%$ in $w$ and $2.9\%$ in $Ω_{m}$. This proof of concept demonstrates a potentially scalable approach for efficient cosmological parameter inference with large populations of galaxy-scale lenses observed in future surveys.

Jarugula, Sreevani [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000253867↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reconstructing the Position and Intensity of Multiple Gamma-Ray Point Sources with a Sparse Parametric Algorithm

IEEE We present an experimental demonstration of Additive Point Source Localization (APSL), a sparse parametric imaging algorithm that reconstructs the 3D positions and activities of multiple gamma-ray point sources. Using a handheld gamma-ray detector array and up to four 8 μCi 137 Cs gamma-ray sources, we performed both source-search and source-separation experiments in an indoor laboratory environment. In the majority of the source-search measurements, APSL reconstructed the correct number of sources with position accuracies of ~20 cm and activity accuracies (unsigned) of ~20%, given measurement times of two to three minutes and distances of closest approach (to any source) of ~20 cm. In source-separation measurements where the detector could be moved freely about the environment, APSL was able to resolve two sources separated by 75 cm or more given only ~60 s of measurement time. In these source-separation measurements, APSL produced larger total activity errors of ~40%, but obtained source separation distances accurate to within 15 cm. We also compare our APSL results against traditional Maximum Likelihood-Expectation Maximization (ML-EM) reconstructions, and demonstrate improved image accuracy and interpretability using APSL over ML-EM. These results indicate that APSL is capable of accurately reconstructing gamma-ray source positions and activities using measurements from existing detector hardware.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effect of thermal conditioning on the initiation threshold of secondary high‐explosives

While most performance metrics of high–explosive (HE) based devices like detonation velocity, detonation pressure, and energy output are expected to degrade over time, the evolution of initiation threshold appears less clear, with claims of both increasing and decreasing trends in threshold having been made in the literature. This work analyzes D–optimally designed sequential binary test data for a few thermally conditioned porous–powder and polymer–bonded HE initiator systems using a Bayesian likelihood method employing the probit regression model. Here we find that in most cases the initiation threshold decreases (i.e., sensitivity increases) upon accelerated thermal conditioning. However, such results are nuanced and influenced by factors like the contact area of initiating stimulus, HE characteristics like density and specific surface area, as well as possible thermally induced changes to other materials and interfaces involved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fitting Matérn smoothness parameters using automatic differentiation

The Mat$\acute{e}$rn covariance function is ubiquitous in the application of Gaussian processes to spatial statistics and beyond. Perhaps the most important reason for this is that the smoothness parameter $\nu$ gives complete control over the mean-square differentiability of the process, which has significant implications for the behavior of estimated quantities such as interpolants and forecasts. Unfortunately, derivatives of the Mat$\acute{e}$rn covariance function with respect to $\nu$ require derivatives of the modified second-kind Bessel function $K$ $\nu$ with respect to $\nu$. While closed form expressions of these derivatives do exist, they are prohibitively difficult and expensive to compute. For this reason, many software packages require fixing $\nu$ as opposed to estimating it, and all existing software packages that attempt to offer the functionality of estimating $\nu$ use finite difference estimates for $\partial$ $\nu$ $K$ $\nu$ . In this work, we introduce a new implementation of $K$$\nu$ that has been designed to provide derivatives via automatic differentiation (AD), and whose resulting derivatives are significantly faster and more accurate than those computed using finite differences. Here, we provide comprehensive testing for both speed and accuracy and show that our AD solution can be used to build accurate Hessian matrices for second-order maximum likelihood estimation in settings where Hessians built with finite difference approximations completely fail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

CMPLE: Correlation Modeling to Decode Photosynthesis Using the Minorize–Maximize Algorithm

In plant genomic experiments, correlations among various biological traits (phenotypes) give new insights into how genetic diversity may have tuned biological processes to enhance fitness under diverse conditions. Consequently, knowing how the correlations are affected by genetic (G) and environmental (E) factors helps develop climate-resilient plants. However, the current literature lacks any method for assessing the effect of predictors on pairwise correlations among multiple phenotypes together with easily interpretable model parameters. To address this need, we propose to model pairwise correlations directly in terms of G and E and develop a computationally efficient inference procedure. Two major novelties in our methodology are (1) the use of a composite pairwise likelihood method to avoid the positive definiteness restriction on the correlation matrix and (2) the use of a novel Minorize–Maximize (MM) algorithm for the efficient estimation of a large number of parameters. The proposed method shows excellent numerical performance on synthetic datasets. Here, the analysis of the motivating data on cowpea reveals that the rates of solar energy storage by photosynthesis (the aggregate trait) are differentially affected by different genetic loci through two distinct processes: “photoinhibition” which results from photodamage caused by excess light, and “photoprotection” which protects plants from photodamage but also results in energy loss.

Correlation modeling↗