Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “lifetime prediction models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Milky Way Satellite Census. IV. Constraints on Decaying Dark Matter from Observations of Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

Abstract We use a recent census of the Milky Way (MW) satellite galaxy population to constrain the lifetime of particle dark matter (DM). We consider two-body decaying dark matter (DDM) in which a heavy DM particle decays with lifetime τ comparable to the age of the universe to a lighter DM particle (with mass splitting ϵ ) and to a dark radiation species. These decays impart a characteristic “kick velocity,” V kick = ϵ c , on the DM daughter particles, significantly depleting the DM content of low-mass subhalos and making them more susceptible to tidal disruption. We fit the suppression of the present-day DDM subhalo mass function (SHMF) as a function of τ and V kick using a suite of high-resolution zoom-in simulations of MW-mass halos, and we validate this model on new DDM simulations of systems specifically chosen to resemble the MW. We implement our DDM SHMF predictions in a forward model that incorporates inhomogeneities in the spatial distribution and detectability of MW satellites and uncertainties in the mapping between galaxies and DM halos, the properties of the MW system, and the disruption of subhalos by the MW disk using an empirical model for the galaxy–halo connection. By comparing to the observed MW satellite population, we conservatively exclude DDM models with τ < 18 Gyr (29 Gyr) for V kick = 20 kms −1 (40 kms −1 ) at 95% confidence. These constraints are among the most stringent and robust small-scale structure limits on the DM particle lifetime and strongly disfavor DDM models that have been proposed to alleviate the Hubble and S 8 tensions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observable proton decay in flipped SU(5)

We explore proton decay in a class of realistic supersymmetric flipped SU(5) models supplemented by a U(1) R symmetry which plays an essential role in implementing hybrid inflation. Two distinct neutrino mass models, based on inverse seesaw and type I seesaw, are identified, with the latter arising from the breaking of U(1) R by nonrenormalizable superpotential terms. Depending on the neutrino mass model an appropriate set of intermediate scale color triplets from the Higgs superfields play a key role in proton decay channels that include p → (e + , μ + ) π 0 , p → (e + , μ + ) K 0 , p → $\bar v$π + , and p → $\bar v$K + . We identify regions of the parameter space that yield proton lifetime estimates which are testable at Hyper-Kamiokande and other next generation experiments. We discuss how gauge coupling unification in the presence of intermediate scale particles is realized, and a Z 4 symmetry is utilized to show how such intermediate scales can arise in flipped SU(5). Finally, we compare our predictions for proton decay with previous work based on SU(5) and flipped SU(5).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atmospheric ice nucleation

Atmospheric ice nucleation is crucial for global precipitation and affects the structure, lifetime and reflectivity of clouds, thereby impacting climate. Ice nucleates in various ways from aerosol particles, termed ice-nucleating particles, over an extensive temperature and humidity range. Quantifying the kinetic and thermodynamic regimes of nucleation is necessary to relate fundamental physics to theoretically based predictions of ice formation for implementation in cloud and climate models. We review how the molecular picture of ice nucleation has advanced in recent years and consequential impacts on the interpretation and parameterization of ice nucleation. Advances include the role of interfacial free energy and pressure on ice nucleation rates, mobility regions of water that generate the critical ice nucleus, classical and non-classical pathways of nucleation, the type of ice polymorph that forms, the impact of solutes on freezing and the role of nanopores as surface features promoting ice nucleation. We also introduce currently debated and evaluated freezing parameterizations for application in model environments. Finally, we outline what we believe are the current needs for improving predictive understanding of ice nucleation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relic neutrino decay solution to the excess radio background

Abstract The excess radio background detected by ARCADE 2 represents a puzzle within the standard cosmological model. There is no clear viable astrophysical solution, and therefore, it might indicate the presence of new physics. Radiative decays of a relic neutrino ν_i (either i=1, or i=2, or i=3) into a sterile neutrino ν_ s, assumed to be quasi-degenerate, provide a solution that currently evades all constraints posed by different cosmological observations and reproduces very well the ARCADE 2 data. We find a very good fit to the ARCADE 2 data with best fit values τ_i = 1.46 × 10^21 s and Δ m_i = 4.0 × 10^-5 eV, where τ_i is the lifetime and Δ m_i is the mass difference between the decaying active neutrino and the sterile neutrino. On the other hand, if relic neutrino decays do not explain ARCADE 2 data, then these place a stringent constraint Δ m_i^3/2τ_i ≳ 2 × 10^14 eV^3/2 s in the range 1.4 × 10^-5 eV<Δ m_i < 2.5 × 10^-4 eV. The solution also predicts a stronger 21 cm absorption global signal than the predicted one from the ΛCDM model, with a contrast brightness temperature T_21 = -238^+21_-20 mK (99% C.L.) at redshift z≃ 17. This is in mild tension with the even stronger signal found by the EDGES collaboration, T_21 = - 500^+200_-500 mK, suggesting that this might have been overestimated, possibly receiving a contribution from some unidentified foreground source.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

First application of a liquid argon time projection chamber for the search for intranuclear neutron-antineutron transitions and annihilation in 40 Ar using the MicroBooNE detector

We present a novel methodology to search for intranuclear neutron-antineutron transition (n→n̅) followed by n̅-nucleon annihilation within an 40 Ar nucleus, using the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector. A discovery of n→n̅ transition or a new best limit on the lifetime of this process would either constitute physics beyond the Standard Model or greatly constrain theories of baryogenesis, respectively. The approach presented in this paper makes use of deep learning methods to select n→n̅ events based on their unique features and differentiate them from cosmogenic backgrounds. The achieved signal and background efficiencies are (70.22 ± 6.04)% and (0.0020 ± 0.0003)%, respectively. A demonstration of a search is performed with a data set corresponding to an exposure of 3.32 ×10 26 neutron-years, and where the background rate is constrained through direct measurement, assuming the presence of a negligible signal. With this approach, no excess of events over the background prediction is observed, setting a demonstrative lower bound on the n→n̅ lifetime in 40 Ar of τ m ≳ 1.1×10 26 years, and on the free n→n̅ transition time of τ n→n̅ ≳ 2.6×10 5 s, each at the 90% confidence level. This analysis represents a first-ever proof-of-principle demonstration of the ability to search for this rare process in LArTPCs with high efficiency and low background.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tutorial: Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence in Batteries

Machine learning (ML) promises to compress the time needed to characterize battery performance, lifetime and safety. By coupling ML with physical models and metrics, that learning can bridge across materials, chemistries and cell designs. This tutorial will discuss the most popular ML techniques and resources and review recent work in the electrochemical literature. Applications include materials discovery, image recognition for quantitative microscopy analysis, fast charge algorithm development and life prediction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Build-To-Replace Strategy to Reduce O&M Costs of Advanced Reactors

This paper targets the goal of reducing fixed operations and maintenance (O&M) costs to $2/MWh for advanced reactor (AR) designs, an order of magnitude reduction from current nuclear fleets. Such goal will be severely constrained if the underlying assumptions of O&M approaches and practices are not questioned and reexamined, especially today when changes can be implemented effectively and efficiently. Achieving a 90% reduction in AR O&M costs requires a completely new way of thinking – a paradigm shift – not through incremental, technology-focused approaches alone. Here, we address this challenge by evaluating the impact of moving to shorter design life for major structures, systems and components (SSCs) and shorter, more predictable refurbishment cycles as modeled by the commercial airline industry. This paper provides a brief overview of this different mindset to O&M applied to ARs: the build-to-replace approach. We provide a direct example of analysis of a build-to-replace scenario by identifying and evaluating scenarios for reduced system and component lifetimes and associated replacement and refurbishment schedules to evaluate impacts on O&M costs and other lifecycle elements such as SSC reliability.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Shape evolution of neutron-rich 106,108,110 Mo isotopes in the triaxial degree of freedom

Background: Neutron-rich nuclei with mass number between 100 and 110 attract much attention, since several kinds of shapes, such as spherical, prolate, oblate, and triaxial shapes, are predicted. In particular, for neutron-rich Mo isotopes, different models predict different magnitudes and rigidity of triaxial deformation. Previous interpretations of experimental results based solely on low-lying $2^+_2$ states are insufficient to distinguish between the rigid triaxial shape, $\gamma$ vibration, or $\gamma$-soft rotor. Purpose: The shape evolution of 106 Mo, 108 Mo, and 110 Mo is investigated through their $2^+_1$-state lifetimes, decay-branching ratios of the $2^+_2$ state, and energies of the low-lying collective excited states with $K^π = 0^+, 2^+$, and $4^+$. Method: $\beta$-delayed $\gamma$-ray spectroscopy was employed for neutron-rich Nb and Zr isotopes produced at the RIKEN RI Beam Factory to populate excited states in 106 Mo, 108 Mo, and 110 Mo. The EUroball-RIKEN Cluster Array was used for high-resolution $\gamma$-ray detection and lifetimes of the $2^+_1$ states were determined using the UK fast-timing array of LaBr 3 (Ce) detectors. Results: New $\gamma$-ray transitions and levels are reported, including newly assigned $0^+_2$ states in 108,110 Mo. Quadrupole deformations were obtained for 106,108,110 Mo from their $2^+_1$ energies and lifetimes. The $\beta$-delayed neutron-emission probabilities of 108 Nb and 110 Nb were determined by examining the $\gamma$ rays of their respective daughter decays. Conclusions: In this work, the even-odd energy staggering in the $2^+_2$ band was compared with typical patterns of the $\gamma$-vibrational band, rigid triaxial rotor, and $\gamma$-soft rotor. The very small even-odd staggering of 106 Mo, 108 Mo, and 110 Mo favors a $\gamma$-vibrational band assignment. The kinematic moment of inertia for the $2^+_2$ band showed a trend similar to the ground-state band, which is as expected for the $\gamma$-vibrational band. Beyond-mean-field calculations employing the constrained Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov and local quasiparticle-random-phase approximation method using the SLy5 + T interaction reproduced the ground and $2^+_2$ bands in 106 Mo and 108 Mo. The collective wave functions are consistent with the interpretation of the $2^+_2$ band as the $\gamma$-vibrational band of the prolate shape. However, the staggering pattern observed in 110 Mo differs from the one suggested in the calculations which predict a $\gamma$-soft rotor. There was no experimental indication of the oblate shape or the $\gamma$-soft rotor predicted in these Mo isotopes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Battery Performance, Thermal, and Life Modeling for Southern California Edison (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

The objective of this project is to develop battery performance models, thermal models and life models for SCE to use in simulation and analysis of grid services involving energy storage. NREL will fit the models to three separate chemistries using test data provided by SCE. The dataset for each chemistry will include electrical, thermal and aging response to different temperatures and cycling conditions, measured under a variety of cell-level and module-level experiments described in SCE test protocol documents. Once tuned to a test dataset, the battery system model software will provide predictions of battery energy and power loss, and thus cycle and calendar life, for any energy storage grid service power profile of interest to SCE. The automated battery life modeling and simulation tool can also be applied to any other grid battery systems as long as necessary input data is available to accelerate battery model development and battery lifetime analysis.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Demonstration of a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber Based Search for Intranuclear Neutron-Antineutron Transitions and Annihilation in $^{40}$Ar using the MicroBooNE Detector

We present a novel methodology to search for intranuclear neutron-antineutron transition ($n\rightarrow\bar{n}$) followed by $\bar{n}$-nucleon annihilation within an $^{40}$Ar nucleus, using the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector. A discovery of $n\rightarrow\bar{n}$ transition or a new best limit on the lifetime of this process would either constitute physics beyond the Standard Model or greatly constrain theories of baryogenesis, respectively. The approach presented in this paper makes use of deep learning methods to select $n\rightarrow\bar{n}$ events based on their unique features and differentiate them from cosmogenic backgrounds. The achieved signal and background efficiencies are (70.22$\pm$6.04)\% and (0.0020$\pm$0.0003)\%, respectively. A demonstration of a search is performed with a data set corresponding to an exposure of $3.32 \times10^{26}\,$neutron-years, and where the background rate is constrained through direct measurement, assuming the presence of a negligible signal. With this approach, no excess of events over the background prediction is observed, setting a demonstrative lower bound on the $n\rightarrow\bar{n}$ lifetime in $^{40}$Ar of $\tau_{\textrm{m}} \gtrsim 1.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating Various Failure Models on Commercial Silicon Carbide

Structures and components made from ceramic materials are often brittle and can fail by the unstable growth of existing flaws such as voids and cracks. There have been several failure criteria developed for ceramics, in the past and they are broadly categorized based on their dependency on crack geometry. The present work implements eight failure criteria using an open-source software package – srlife, which predicts the lifetime or failure probability of concentrated solar power (CSP) structural components. The present work also checks the viability of building a ceramic CSP receiver, by analyzing the reliability predictions from srlife for a SiC ceramic. The reliability predictions for a biaxial loading problem indicated the Shetty Mixed-Mode criterion gives the most conservative predictions. Whereas, in case of the CSP receiver, the predictions show that the co-planar strain energy criterion gives the most conservative predictions as it is agnostic towards the type of stress, and therefore, is not recommended to be used designing ceramic receivers.

Chaugule, Pawan (ORCID:0000000275706572)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lifetimes of low-lying levels in 158 Gd

The low-lying structure of the well-deformed nucleus 158 Gd has been revisited to elucidate the nature of the low-lying states in 158 Gd. Earlier (p, t) studies identified numerous 0 + states below 4.3 MeV, prompting questions about whether these states correspond to collective vibrations or shape coexistence. New and previously reported (n, n' γ) measurements are combined, including γ-γ coincidences, excitation functions, and angular distributions, to extract lifetimes and transition probabilities for 44 excited states up to 2.7 MeV, including 32 previously unmeasured levels. Our results confirm or revise γ-ray placements and provide detailed transition strengths, revealing both weakly collective and strongly enhanced B(E2) and B(E1) transition probabilities. In particular, a tentative 0 + state at 2437.8 keV exhibits a strong interband B(E2) transition, which may be a candidate for a possible two-phonon (ββ) excitation. Systematic comparisons with neighboring Gd isotopes, Hartree–Fock–Bogoliubov, and interacting-boson model predictions suggest that the first excited 0 + state in 158 Gd is predicted to be a β-vibration, although it is weakly collective.

158Gd↗
DOE OSTI2022

Early-time measure in eternal inflation

In a situation like eternal inflation, where our data is replicated at infinitely-many other space-time events, it is necessary to make a prior assumption about our location to extract predictions. The principle of mediocrity entails that we live at asymptotic late times, when the occupational probabilities of vacua has settled to a near-equilibrium distribution. In this paper we further develop the idea that we instead exist during the approach to equilibrium, much earlier than the exponentially-long mixing time. In this case we are most likely to reside in vacua that are easily accessed dynamically. Using first-passage statistics, we prove that vacua that maximize their space-time volume at early times have: 1. maximal ever-hitting probability; 2. minimal mean first-passage time; and 3. minimal decay rate. These requirements are succinctly captured by an early-time measure. The idea that we live at early times is a predictive guiding principle, with many phenomenological implications. First, our vacuum should lie deep in a funneled region, akin to folding energy landscapes of proteins. Second, optimal landscape regions are characterized by relatively short-lived vacua, with lifetime of order the de Sitter Page time. For our vacuum, this lifetime is ~ 10 130 years, which is consistent with the Standard Model estimate due to Higgs metastability. Third, the measure favors vacua with small, positive vacuum energy. This can address the cosmological constant problem, provided there are sufficiently many vacua in the entire ensemble of funnels. As a concrete example, we study the Bousso-Polchinski lattice of flux vacua, and find that the early-time measure favors lattices with the fewest number of flux dimensions. This favors compactifications with a large hierarchy between the lightest modulus and all other Kähler and complex structure moduli.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting battery capacity from impedance at varying temperature and state of charge using machine learning

Prediction of battery health from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data can enable rapid measurement of battery state in real-world applications without using additional sensors or time-consuming performance measurements. However, deconvoluting the effect of capacity, state of charge, and temperature on EIS response is complicated analytically. Here, various machine-learning models, such as linear, Gaussian process, random forest, and artificial neural network regression, are utilized to predict capacity from EIS using hundreds of capacity, direct current (DC) resistance, and EIS measurements recorded under varying conditions of health, temperature, and state of charge (SOC). Several feature extraction and selection methods from traditional electrochemical analysis and statistical modeling are explored using machine-learning pipelines. EIS data from just two frequencies can accurately predict capacity, and interrogation shows that the optimal set of frequencies is not usually intuitive. Best results are achieved with an ensemble model, which predicts battery capacity with a mean absolute error of 1.9% on data from unobserved cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Durability test of a flowing-water target for isotope harvesting

A high intensity proton irradiation was performed with the flowing-water isotope harvesting target at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Cyclotron Laboratory to measure the rate of degradation of the target shell during irradiation conditions. The beam reached an intensity of 34 µA by the end of the irradiation and covered an area of 0.7 cm 2 on the target. Radiolysis products, such as H 2 O 2 , H 2 , and O 2 , were measured in the bulk water of the system and found to be present at much lower levels than predicted by literature escape yields. Radionuclides formed in the target shell were measured in the system water as a radiotracer for target degradation. Using a simple, beam intensity dependent model, a corrosion rate of 1.5E-6 μm/(μA*s) was found to match the measured radiotracer activities at various points in the irradiation. Furthermore, this rate was used to extrapolate the lifetime of future isotope harvesting targets at the NSCL and FRIB, using the areal power density of different ion beams to scale the corrosion rate.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRT) analysis of wind turbine blade leading edge erosion

Leading edge erosion (LEE) of wind turbine blades has been identified as a major factor in decreased wind turbine blade lifetimes and energy output over time. Accordingly, the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme (IEA Wind TCP) has created the Task 46 Phase 2 to undertake cooperative research in the key topic of blade erosion. The purpose of Task 46 Erosion Phase 2 is to further improve understanding of erosion driving factors, develop datasets and model tools to enhance prediction of leading-edge erosion likelihood, identify damage at the earliest possible stage and advance potential solutions. The scope of work covers several technical areas, reflecting the multidisciplinary nature of the challenge. Participants in the task are given in Table 1.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Microwave Resonant Cavity Transducer Degradation Mechanisms

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with the flat wall of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. Because the transducer is intended for immersion in a high temperature corrosive fluid, understanding of material degradation is crucial for estimation of transducer performance lifetime, and development of measurement interpretation algorithms. We conducted a preliminary computational investigation of relevant damage mechanisms of a stainless steel 316 cylindrical resonator in FLiBe salt. The two main damage mechanisms, creep and corrosion, were modeled using multiphysics COMSOL software. Degradation was modeled for a temperature range 500°C to 700°C. Coupling of the damage mechanisms was not considered. These models predict significant inelastic deformation at most temperatures due to creep, and qualitatively predict chromium depletion both along the liquid/solid interface and along the grain boundaries. An algorithmic approach for compensation of these degradation effects during fluid flow measurements will be developed in the future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗