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NASA NTRS2012

Parameterization of Aerosol Sinks in Chemical Transport Models

The modelers point of view is that the aerosol problem is one of sources, evolution, and sinks. Relative to evolution and sink processes, enormous attention is given to the problem of aerosols sources, whether inventory based (e.g., fossil fuel emissions) or dynamic (e.g., dust, sea salt, biomass burning). On the other hand, aerosol losses in models are a major factor in controlling the aerosol distribution and lifetime. Here we shine some light on how aerosol sinks are treated in modern chemical transport models. We discuss the mechanisms of dry and wet loss processes and the parameterizations for those processes in a single model (GEOS-5). We survey the literature of other modeling studies. We additionally compare the budgets of aerosol losses in several of the ICAP models.

Colarco, Peter↗
NASA NTRS1993

P/Halley - Effects of time-dependent production rates on spatial emission profiles

Spatial profiles of C2, CN, NH2, and O(D-1) in Comet P/Halley taken on 1986 March 1.54 and 2.55 and April 14.32 and 15.30 clearly show the effect of the 7 day periodic variation seen in photometric observations. With a time-dependent model based upon the light curve and employing standard scale lengths for each species reduced to the appropriate heliocentric distance, we are able to reproduce the highly variable profiles for all species. We computed the phase lag and amplitude correction between the actual gas production at the nucleus and the temporal/spatial filter imposed by the finite aperture photometry. For early March we find a phase lag and amplitude correction of 12 hr and -9 percent, respectively, whereas in mid-April the values are 6 hr and -27 percent. The same phase lag and amplitude correction work equally well for all four species despite their wide variation in photochemical lifetimes for production and decay. The same model integrated over circular apertures is able to reproduce the entire published March and April photometric light curves for C2. Our results require the use of the 7.60 day period for the March data as opposed to the 7.37 day period that is relevant for the April data, in agreement with the published analysis of the photometric data. Our results will help to reconcile the placement of active areas on the surface of Halley's comet with various remote observations and spacecraft images of the nucleus.

Combi, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Modeling of G333.6-0.2 as a spherical H II region

The radio and IR observations of the H II region G333.6-0.2 are matched with a detailed spherical model with a density distribution which has a uniform-density core of radius 0.05 pc, a power-law intermediate zone, and a uniform-density halo. A stellar radiation field is required that is somewhat different from those predicted by available model atmospheres. Of the stellar models of Kurucz, the Teff = 34,000 K and log g = 3.5 model best fits the observed ratio of helium to hydrogen recombination lines. A good fit to all the observations in obtained with an S(2+) ionizing flux which is a factor of 20 times less than predicted by the Kurucz atmosphere. Current model atmospheres may not be appropriate because a single stable star with Teff = 34,000 K fails by at least an order of magnitude to produce the ionizing luminosity. The small radius of the constant-density core implies a short dynamical lifetime of approximately 5000 years for this spherical model; this may indicate that a nonspherical blister geometry is more appropriate for this H II region.

Rubin, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1972

User's manual for the Simulated Life Analysis of Vehicle Elements (SLAVE) model

The simulated life analysis of vehicle elements model was designed to perform statistical simulation studies for any constant loss rate. The outputs of the model consist of the total number of stages required, stages successfully completing their lifetime, and average stage flight life. This report contains a complete description of the model. Users' instructions and interpretation of input and output data are presented such that a user with little or no prior programming knowledge can successfully implement the program.

Paul, D. D., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Persistence and predictability in a perfect model

A realistic two-level GCM is used to examine the relationship between predictability and persistence. Predictability is measured by the average divergence of ensembles of solutions starting from perturbed initial conditions, and persistence is defined in terms of the autocorrelation function based on a single long-term model integration. The average skill of the dynamical forecasts is compared with the skill of simple persistence-based statistical forecasts. For initial errors comparable in magnitude to present-day analysis errors, the statistical forecast loses all skill after about one week, reflecting the lifetime of the lowest frequency fluctuations in the model. Large ensemble mean dynamical forecasts would be expected to remain skillful for about 3 wk. The disparity between the skill of the statistical and dynamical forecasts is greater for the higher frequency modes, which have little memory beyond 1 d, yet remain predictable for about 2 wk. The results are analyzed in terms of two characteristic time scales.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Photochemical ozone production in tropical squall line convection during NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment 2A

The role of convection was examined in trace gas transport and ozone production in a tropical dry season squall line sampled on August 3, 1985, during NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment 2A (NASA GTE/ABLE 2A) in Amazonia, Brazil. Two types of analyses were performed. Transient effects within the cloud are examined with a combination of two-dimensional cloud and one-dimensional photochemical modeling. Tracer analyses using the cloud model wind fields yield a series of cross sections of NO(x), CO, and O3 distribution during the lifetime of the cloud; these fields are used in the photochemical model to compute the net rate of O3 production. At noon, when the cloud was mature, the instantaneous ozone production potential in the cloud is between 50 and 60 percent less than in no-cloud conditions due to reduced photolysis and cloud scavenging of radicals. Analysis of cloud inflows and outflows is used to differentiate between air that is undisturbed and air that has been modified by the storm. These profiles are used in the photochemical model to examine the aftereffects of convective redistribution in the 24-hour period following the storm. Total tropospheric column O3 production changed little due to convection because so little NO(x) was available in the lower troposphere. However, the integrated O3 production potential in the 5- to 13-km layer changed from net destruction to net production as a result of the convection. The conditions of the August 3, 1985, event may be typical of the early part of the dry season in Amazonia, when only minimal amounts of pollution from biomass burning have been transported into the region.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Experimental investigation of the excess charge and time constant of minority carriers in the thin diffused layer of 0.1 ohm-cm silicon solar cells

An experimental method is presented that can be used to interpret the relative roles of bandgap narrowing and recombination processes in the diffused layer. This method involves measuring the device time constant by open-circuit voltage decay and the base region diffusion length by X-ray excitation. A unique illuminated diode method is used to obtain the diode saturation current. These data are interpreted using a simple model to determine individually the minority carrier lifetime and the excess charge. These parameters are then used to infer the relative importance of bandgap narrowing and recombination processes in the diffused layer.

Godlewski, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Secondary cosmic-ray electrons and positrons from 1 to 100 GeV in the upper atmosphere and interstellar space, and interpretation of a recent positron flux measurement

Secondary electron and positron fluxes generated in interstellar space and in the atmosphere from the decays of pions and kaons in inelastic nuclear interactions are calculated by Monte Carlo techniques for lepton energies in the range from 1 to 100 GeV and an assumed thickness of 10 g/sq cm or less for the interstellar or atmospheric material. A simple and accurate analytical model which summarizes the Monte Carlo results and identifies the essential parameters involved is developed and used to interpret a previous positron measurement. It is found that the thickness of interstellar and source material is about 4.3 g/sq cm for cosmic-ray positrons with energies exceeding 4 GeV, a result that is difficult to reconcile with recently proposed two-containment-volume propagation models which predict a thickness of 1.8 g/sq cm for the same energies on the basis of the energy dependence of the measured (Li+Be+B)/(C+O) ratio. It is shown that single-containment-volume (galactic) models invoking an energy-dependent leakage lifetime are compatible with the positron data, but lack a mechanism to explain the energy dependence.

Orth, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Shuttle program. Solar activity prediction of sunspot numbers, predicted solar radio flux

A solar activity prediction technique for monthly mean sunspot numbers over a period of approximately ten years from February 1979 to January 1989 is presented. This includes the predicted maximum epoch of solar cycle 21, approximately January 1980, and the predicted minimum epoch of solar cycle 22, approximately March 1987. Additionally, the solar radio flux 10.7 centimeter smooth values are included for the same time frame using a smooth 13 month empirical relationship. The incentive for predicting solar activity values is the requirement of solar flux data as input to upper atmosphere density models utilized in mission planning satellite orbital lifetime studies.

Johnson, G. G.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of a stochastic model of particle dispersion in a turbulent round jet

A stochastic model of particle dispersion by turbulence, proposed by Gosman and Ioannides (1981), is evaluated. The method employs a k-epsilon model to estimate turbulence properties. Dispersion is determined by computing particle motion, with random sampling to obtain instantaneous flow properties for a statistically significant number of particle trajectories. The stochastic model yields good results particularly when eddy lifetimes are evaluated. The method allows the effects of large relative velocities between the particles and the flow, drag properties at Reynolds numbers greater than the Stokes flow regime, and the variations of local turbulence properties to be readily handled, at least for boundary layer flows.

Shuen, J.-S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

CLAES CH4, N2O and CCL2F2 (F12) global data

Zonal mean comparisons of CH4 (for altitude regions above the 1.35 ppmv contour), of N2O (above the 210 ppbv contour), and of F12 (above the 360 pptv contour) with UARS prelaunch climatology and with recent models shows reasonable agreement, and some interesting differences in the details of equatorial uplift and descent near the winter poles, including apparent north-south differences. Prominent features such as the double peaked uplift structure in the April-May SAMS data are clearly evident in all three CLAES tracers. Contours of SAMS CH4 and N2O occur mostly at higher pressures than in the CLAES data, presumably due in part to increased tropospheric content of these gases, and/or perhaps some dynamic difference associated with the 15 years time difference between the data sets. The CLAES F12 are the first long time base global data sets. These show more tropical uplift than climatology or models. This might suggest a somewhat shorter lifetime of F12 in the stratosphere than is currently accepted.

Kumer, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Global trends and annual releases of CCl3F and CCl2F2 estimated from ALE/GAGE and other measurements from July 1978 to June 1991

Thirteen years of Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment/Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment CCl3F and CCl2F2 measurements at five remote, surface, globally distributed sites are analyzed. Comparisons are made against shipboard measurements by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) group and archived air samples collected at Cape Grim, Tasmania, since 1978. CCl3F in the lower troposphere was increasing at an average rate of 9.2 ppt/yr over the period July 1978 to June 1988. CCl2F2 was increasing at an average 17.3 ppt/yr in the lower troposphere over the same period. However, between July 1988 and June 1991 the increases of CCl3F and CCl2F2 in this region have averaged just 7.0 ppt/yr and 15.7 ppt/yr, respectively. The rate of increase has been decreasing 2.4 ppt/yr(exp 2) and 2.9 ppt/yr(exp 2) over this 3-year period. Based on a recent scenario of the global releases of these compounds and using the new calibration scale SIO 1993, the equilibrium lifetimes are estimated to be 44 +17/-10 and 180 +820/-81 years for CCl3F and CCl2F2, respectively. Using these lifetime estimates and a two-dimensional model, it is estimated that global releases of these two chlorofluorocarbons in 1990 were 249 +/- 28 x 10(exp 6) kg for CCl3F and 366 +/- 30 x 10(exp 6) kg for CCl2F2. It is also estimated that combined releases of these chlorofluorocarbons in 1990 were 21 +/- 5% less than those in 1986.

Cunnold, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Statistical Technique for Intermediate and Long-Range Estimation of 13-Month Smoothed Solar Flux and Geomagnetic Index

This report documents the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) 13-month smoothed solar flux (F(sub 10.7)) and geomagnetic index (A(sub p)) intermediate (months) and long-range (years) statistical estimation technique, referred to as the MSFC Lagrangian Linear Regression Technique (MLLRT). Estimates of future solar activity are needed as updated input to upper atmosphere density models used for satellite and spacecraft orbital lifetime predictions. An assessment of the MLLRT computer program's products is provided for 5-year periods from the date estimates were made. This was accomplished for a number of past solar cycles.

Niehuss, K. O.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Formation of Planetary Systems

Stars are observed to be forming within cold regions of the galaxy called molecular clouds. A clump of gas and dust within a molecular cloud can collapse into a rotationally- supported disk orbiting the pre s sure -supported star. Such a disk has the same initial elemental composition as the growing star. At sufficient distances from the central star, it is cool enough for approx. 1 - 2% of this material to be in solid form, either remnant interstellar grains or condensates formed within the disk. During the infall stage, the disk is very active and probably highly turbulent. When the infall slows substantially or stops, the disk becomes more quiescent. The dust grows from micron-sized dust to kilometer-sized planetesimals by physical collisions, possibly aided by collective gravity. The dynamics of larger solid bodies within protoplanetary disks are better characterized. The primary perturbations on the orbits of kilometer-sized and larger planetesimals in protoplanetary disks are mutual gravitational interactions and physical collisions. These interactions lead to accretion (and in some cases erosion and fragmentation) of planetesimals. The most massive planets have the largest gravitationally-enhanced collision cross-sections, and accrete almost everything with which they collide. The size distribution of solid bodies becomes quite skewed, with a few large bodies growing much faster than the rest of the swarm, until they have accumulated most of the small bodies within their gravitational reach. Slower growth continues (at least for solid, earth-like planets) as the eccentricities of planetary embryos are pumped up by long-range mutual gravitational perturbations. As planetary masses increase, they become more efficient at stirring random velocities of neighboring bodies. If sufficiently massive and dense planets exist far enough from the star, they can eject material into interstellar space. In most models, giant planets begin their growth like terrestrial planets, but if they become massive enough before the protoplanetary disk dissipates, then they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas. Giant planet growth times predicted by current models are similar to estimates of the lifetime of the gaseous protoplanetary disk, so we don't know whether or not giant planets form in most protoplanetary disks. However, planets that become massive while a substantial amount of gas remains in the disk may migrate into the star as a consequence of their gravitational interactions with the disk.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Heating and melting of small icy satellites by the decay of 26Al

We study the effect of radiogenic heating due to 26Al on the thermal evolution of small icy satellites. Our object is to find the extent of internal melting as a function of the satellite radius and of the initial 26Al abundance. The implicit assumption, based on observations of young stars, is that planet and satellite accretion occurred on a time scale of approximately 10(6) yr (comparable with the lifetime of 26Al). The icy satellites are modeled as spheres of initially amorphous ice, with chondritic abundances of 40K, 232Th, 235U, 238U, corresponding to an ice/dust mass ratio of 1. Evolutionary calculations are carried out, spanning 4.5 x 10(9) yr, for different combinations of the two free parameters. Heat transfer by subsolidus convection is neglected for these small satellites. Our main conclusion is that the initial 26Al abundance capable of melting icy bodies of satellite size to a significant extent is more than 10 times lower than that prevailing in the interstellar medium (or that inferred from the Ca-Al rich inclusions of the Allende meteorite, approximately 7 x 10(-7) by mass). We find, for example, that an initial 26Al mass fraction of approximately 4 x 10(-8) is sufficient for melting almost completely icy spheres with radii of 800 km, typical of the larger icy planetary satellites. We also find that for any given 26Al abundance, there is a narrow range of radii below which only marginal melting occurs and above which most of the ice melts (and refreezes later). Since extensive melting may have important consequences, such as differentiation, gas release, and volcanic activity, the effect of 26Al should be included in future studies of satellite interiors.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2005

Technical Civilizations in the Galaxy

Are there other technical civilizations in the galaxy? Past analyses come to different conclusions. Cocconi and Morrison demonstrated in 1959 that interstellar radio communication was possible and Drake conducted the first search for beacons in 1960. The Drake equation estimates the number of galactic civilizations that are transmitting beacons as the product of the rate of star formation in the galaxy, the fraction of stars with planets, their average number of earthlike planets, the fraction with intelligent life and interstellar communication, and the average lifetime of a technical civilization. The Drake model of the galaxy contains many technical civilizations with communication but no interstellar travel. Michael Hart in 1975 strongly challenged this model. Starting with the fact that no extraterrestrials have been observed on Earth, and assuming that interstellar colonization is possible, he concluded that it was very likely that we are the first civilization in our galaxy and that searching or beacons is probably a waste of time and money. The Fermi paradox similarly reasons that if extraterrestrials exist: they should be here, and asks, Where are they? The Hart/Fermi model of the galaxy contains only our civilization and suggests we may colonize the galaxy. A third galactic model is that we are alone but will never develop interstellar travel. The fourth alternate model has many technical civilizations, with interstellar travel and colonization. The possibilities are clear and momentous. Either we are the only technical civilization in the galaxy or there are others. Technical civilizations will colonize the galaxy or not. We have four cosmic conjectures - one or many, colonization or not - but however unlikely they seem based on our limited evidence, one of these four models must be collect.

Jones, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Kuiper Belt, Exozodiacal Dust, Debris Disks: It's All About Collisions

Debris disks around other stars, like the disks around Fomalhaut, Vega, and Epsilon Eridani, are often described as more massive versions of the Kuiper Belt. But for a long time, it's been hard to test this notion, because grain-grain collisions dominate the grain lifetimes and we lacked the tools to model the effect of collisions on the appearance of the disks. I'll describe a new breakthrough that has allowed us to make 3-D models of collisions in debris disks and exozodiacal clouds for the first time, and I'll show the latest supercomputer simulations of these systems, illustrating the effects of planets and collisions in sculpting these disks. These models will be the key to interpreting debris disk images from HST, Herschel, SOFIA, JWST, and ALMA, as well as understanding the exozodiacal dust backgrounds for direct imaging of exo-Earths.

Kuchner, Marc↗