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At least 253 records · Page 14

Carbon Calculator for Land Use and Land Management Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB)

The Carbon Calculator for Land Use and Land Management Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) has been developed as an integral part of Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model to analyze greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use change (LUC) and land management change (LMC) in the context of overall biofuel life-cycle analysis (LCA). CCLUB relies on i) biofuel production scenarios, ii) LUC and LMC scenarios, and iii) emission factors (EF) to generate GHG emissions of LUC and LMC for biofuel production in gram carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per MJ of fuel produced. Figure 1 outlines the calculations and data sources within CCLUB that are described in this document and Table 1 identifies where these data are stored and used within CCLUB, which is built in Microsoft Excel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Adhesion and tribological characteristics of modified polyurethane coating on composite substrate

In the present study, glass-epoxy composites were used as a substrate to study the performance of modified polyurethane coating. Two-layer coating (180–200 µm) wherein the epoxy primer as the first coat and polyurethane as the top coat was applied using an air-assisted spray gun to increase the service life of the composite. The analysis of coating was performed using gloss, contact angle, FTIR, TGA, tensile test and SEM. The bonding strength between coating and substrate was evaluated by cross-hatch cut, 180 deg peel strength and pull-off adhesion tests. Scratch, Taber abrasion and Pin-on-disc tests were also performed to evaluate the wear resistance. In addition, a rain erosion test was performed to check the stability of the coating. From the above tests, it is concluded that the applied coating well adhered to the composite substrate. The data generated from different tests can be used to estimate the service life of polymer composites and coatings.

Mushtaq, Mohammed↗

Fatigue life prediction of powder bed fused–laser beam AlSi10Mg: Incorporating critical defects via crystal plasticity modelling

The current study provides a microstructurally-based computational framework to predict the fatigue life of additive manufactured (AM), i.e., powder bed fused–laser beam (PBF-LB), AlSi10Mg specimens using the crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM). The fractography analysis, electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), uniaxial and cyclic responses, and fatigue life of specimens were used to inform the computational framework. CPFE simulation was used to compute fatigue indicator parameters (FIPs) as fatigue driving forces. A new fatigue criterion is introduced based on FIPs, which was calibrated using experimental fatigue data. The proposed fatigue measure was evaluated versus the specimens with critical defects of various sizes and locations subjected to different stress amplitudes. The results show that the developed framework can capture the fatigue life of samples with different critical defect locations and sizes along with different stress amplitudes for both high-cycle fatigue (HCF) and very high-cycle fatigue (VHCF) regimes.

Additive manufacturing↗

Direct Air Capture-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal with United States Low-Carbon Energy and Sinks

The overall objective of this project was to complete an initial design of a commercial-scale, Carbon Capture and Storage system for Direct Air Capture (CCS-DAC) that separates and stores a minimum of 100,000 tonnes/year (t/yr.) net CO 2 from air. Three geographically diverse host sites will be used to determine the impact of different climates on the design and cost of the CCS-DAC systems; California (dry-hot), Louisiana (humid-hot), and Wyoming (mid-continental). In addition, the impact of using different low-carbon energy sources was also examined. The focus of this project was to geologically store the CO 2 , rather than the utilization of CO 2 . This Final Scientific/Technical Report is a collection of the deliverables for the project. The project team was able to successfully complete all the necessary tasks needed to determine the feasibility of the designs and operational needs of the DAC systems for each location. The data created by this allowed the project team to conduct the required evaluations to meet the requirements of the deliverables. The following deliverables were drafted and submitted to DOE prior to the conclusion of the project: (1) Initial Engineering Design; (2) Costing Estimate; (3) Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA); (4) Life Cycle Analysis (LCA); (5) Business Case Assessment; and (6) Technology EH&S Risk Assessment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Home charging for all: Techno-economic and life cycle assessment of multi-unit dwelling electric vehicle charging hubs

Ubiquitous electric vehicle adoption can drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) but will require equitable home charging infrastructure for all residences. Unlike single-family homes, Multi-Unit Dwellings (MUD) currently lack market share and access to nearby charging infrastructure partly due to expensive capital costs for reluctant residential property-owners. Further, this work evaluates the levelized cost of charging (LCOC) for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) at MUD community charging hubs through a techno-economic analysis (TEA) that leverages real-world charging data and costs. Three different MUD charging types are investigated for a baseline and optimistic case: 1.9-kW Level 1 (L1), 6.6-kW Level 2 (L2), and 50-kW Direct Current Fast Charging (DCFC) stations under three different ownership models: resident, utility, and private company. Results demonstrate L1 and L2 chargers to be less expensive than the gasoline equivalent across the United States. Further, utility and private company ownership models, which avoid initial costs for residential property owners, result in a large LCOC premium for L1 and moderate LCOC premium for L2 relative to the resident ownership model. In contrast, DCFC is shown to be expensive for baseline scenarios but economical for optimistic scenarios especially under private company ownership. This work also performs a cradle to grave (C2G) life cycle assessment (LCA) of an average passenger BEV and gasoline conventional vehicle (CV) using yearly (grid mix & vehicle parameters), hourly (grid mix), and state-level (grid mix) resolution. Results show BEVs to have lower GHG emissions (-86% to-10%) than gasoline CVs in the contiguous U.S. Next, the system boundary of the TEA is extended to the total cost of ownership (TCO) of BEVs. The TCO is then coupled with the C2G GHG emissions to calculate the cost of GHG emissions reduction. Ultimately, the cost of GHG emissions reduction from MUD BEVs relative to gasoline CVs is shown to be negative for every scenario except baseline DCFC, meaning MUD BEV charging infrastructure can be a cost-effective endeavor to reduce GHG emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Technical Basis SAVY-4000® Series, 5.5G Container (Rev. 1)

The 5.5 Gallon (5.5G) SAVY-4000® nuclear material storage container is the latest in the SAVY-4000® series. The 5.5G is similar to that of a 1or 2Qt container in functionality with the exception of a larger volume deep drawn and spun form body achieved through increases in the depth and diameter of the container. Here, a technical basis using engineering equivalency analysis, calculation, and test data is presented to establish that the 5.5G SAVY-4000® Container is a DOE Manual 441.1-1 compliant container at a drop height of 9 feet (rather than the typical 12 ft of the other SAVY-4000® containers) and that a twenty-five year design life (as with the currently approved SAVY-4000® series) is justified.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

FAST-1.2.2: Integral Assessment

This integral assessment quantifies the predictive capabilities of Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST), a thermal-mechanical nuclear fuel performance code designed to analyze fuel behavior from beginning of life to burnup levels allowed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. FAST code calculations are shown to compare satisfactorily to a pre-selected set of experimental data with both steady-state and anticipated operating occurrence conditions and design basis accident transient operating conditions. This document describes the assessment of FAST-1.2.2, the latest version of FAST, released April 2026.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Life Cycle Analysis Framework for Point Source Capture Systems

NETL studies the costs and benefits of PSC for electricity, industry, and mobile applications. Mobile point source capture (MPSC) and storage applied to freight modes captures emissions directly from exhaust. This poster presents a framework for conducting LCA of PSC systems applied to heavy-duty trucks, freight trains, and marine vessels. The framework defines a wheels-to-storage (gate-to-grave) boundary, including energy demands (electricity, heat, and cooling requirements), solvent use and cycling, onboard system components, carbon storage in a saline aquifer, and upstream manufacturing impacts for equipment, with a suggested functional unit of 1 tonne-km. Potential data sources for analysis include material, energy, and operational data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model, and scientific literature. The suggested analytical approach includes comparison to publicly available business-as-usual systems without capture across all modes of transportation, sensitivity to composition of the capture solvent, and sensitivity to capture rate variation, all of which would support a wholistic PSC business case analysis. For future consideration, analysis can be augmented with consideration of different sources of electricity (e.g., nuclear), fuel substitution, deploying supportive infrastructure such as pipeline offloading points, and downstream applications like enhanced oil recovery (EOR).

life cycle analysis (LCA)↗

A Combined Computational and Mathematical Analysis of Interconnect Fatigue Potential in Photovoltaic Modules

A finite element model of a 60-cell monocrystalline silicon glass-polymer photovoltaic module was simulated with ±1.0 kPa and ±2.4 kPa loads applied to the glass to calculate the deformation under load. Cell-to-cell displacements were used to approximate interconnect strain and stress. A mathematical fatigue cycle life relation was fitted to data for the interconnect material (copper), to generate a life prediction at each interconnect location based on the local stress means, reversal extents, and amplitudes. Interconnect stress was found to be significantly asymmetric about zero despite symmetric positive and negative module loads due to laminate thickness offsets about the neutral plane and the effects of module framing. Cycle life results indicated that interconnect fatigue failure was unlikely to occur over a 30-year lifetime of conservative wind and snow load cycles since the typical cell design feature of leaving some unconstrained length between the cell edge and first solder pad increases the effective gauge length and decreases the stress levels below the material endurance limit. Follow-up analyses found that 3.6 mm and 6.4 mm were the minimum unconstrained lengths required to survive the assumed lifetime of wind and snow cycles, respectively, confirming that typical industrial module constructions with 8–15 mm unconstrained lengths should survive conservatively. Notably, large magnitude, low-cycle snow loading was consistently the limiting factor requiring a longer unconstrained interconnect length. Finally, insights and workflows from this study inform module interconnection design limits for survival against mechanical fatigue in deployment environments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes , Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli , and Campylobacter spp. in raw milk in the United States between 2000 and 2019: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Raw (unpasteurized) milk is available for sale and direct human consumption within some states in the United States (US); it cannot be sold or distributed in interstate commerce. Raw milk may contain pathogenic microorganisms that, when consumed, may cause illness and sometimes may result in death. No comprehensive review for prevalence and levels of the major bacterial pathogens in raw milk in the US exists. The objective of the present research was to systematically review the scientific literature published from 2000 to 2019 to estimate the prevalence and levels of Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), and Campylobacter spp. in raw milk in the US. Peer-reviewed studies were retrieved systematically from PubMed®, Embase®, and Web of ScienceTM. The unique complete nonduplicate references were uploaded into the Health Assessment Work Collaborative (HAWC). Based on the selection criteria, twenty studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) was used for statistical analyses, specifically, random effects meta-analyses were used to synthesize raw bulk tank milk (BTM) and milk filters (MF) data. Data from studies using culture and non–culture-based detection methods were included. Forest plots generated in CMA (Biostat, Englewood, NJ) were used to visualize the results. The average prevalence (event rate) of L. monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., STEC, and Campylobacter spp. in raw BTM in the US was estimated at 4.3% (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 2.8–6.5%), 3.6% (95% CIs, 2.0–6.2%), 4.3% (95% CIs, 2.4–7.4%), and 6.0% (95% CIs, 3.2–10.9%), respectively. Estimated prevalence was generally larger in MF than in BTM. There was not enough data to perform a meta-analysis for the prevalence or levels of pathogens in raw milk from retail establishments or other milk categories.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Biomineralization: Integrating mechanism and evolutionary history

Calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) biomineralizing organisms have played major roles in the history of life and the global carbon cycle during the past 541 Ma. Both marine diversification and mass extinctions reflect physiological responses to environmental changes through time. An integrated understanding of carbonate biomineralization is necessary to illuminate this evolutionary record and to understand how modern organisms will respond to 21st century global change. Biomineralization evolved independently but convergently across phyla, suggesting a unity of mechanism that transcends biological differences. In this review, we combine CaCO 3 skeleton formation mechanisms with constraints from evolutionary history, omics, and a meta-analysis of isotopic data to develop a plausible model for CaCO 3 biomineralization applicable to all phyla. The model provides a framework for understanding the environmental sensitivity of marine calcifiers, past mass extinctions, and resilience in 21st century acidifying oceans. Thus, it frames questions about the past, present, and future of CaCO 3 biomineralizing organisms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel

A recent study claims that corn used for ethanol should not be considered to be inherently biogenically carbon-neutral because not all that corn was grown additional to the level otherwise. By assessing the extent of carbon neutrality of corn for ethanol using the reference point baseline approach and historical data that study concluded that the carbon intensity of US corn ethanol is 27% higher than that of gasoline. We develop a framework to determine the carbon neutrality of corn for ethanol by assessing the additional carbon uptake by crops using an anticipated baseline approach. We also apply this framework to determine the additional corn produced for ethanol and include the direct life cycle carbon emissions of only that portion of corn in the direct life cycle carbon intensity of corn ethanol. We implement this framework by integrating an economic model of the agricultural sector in the USA with a biogenic carbon model and life cycle analysis to quantify biogenic carbon uptake and direct life cycle emissions with and without corn ethanol expansion over the 2007–2027 period. We find that the combined biogenic carbon emissions and direct life cycle carbon emission intensity of corn ethanol (not including indirect land use related emissions) is 21% lower than gasoline. In conclusion, the lower value of this carbon intensity of corn ethanol compared with gasoline is robust to a wide range of parametric assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Unraveling the Threads of Environmental Justice in Critical Mineral Extraction: A Framework for Regionalized Life Cycle Data

As we transition to a more sustainable energy system, the extraction and processing of critical minerals becomes increasingly important. However, these industries often raise concerns about environmental and social impacts, particularly in disadvantaged communities. To address these concerns, our research focuses on regionalizing environmental life cycle data to connect it with communities affected by mineral extraction. A framework was developed for collecting life cycle background data that supports the Justice40 Toolset, a market-based approach to evaluating net benefits and costs of critical mineral material recovery pathways. A goal was to alleviate public skepticism around mineral extraction processes, including secondary and unconventional feedstocks, by highlighting both environmental and social impacts. To achieve this, computational analysis and geospatial data science techniques were employed, such as within-scale and across-scale methods and proxy dataset usage. By doing so, we were able to develop a framework for identifying and disaggregating data down to regions small enough to support Justice40 goals. Our approach not only provides valuable tools fo insight into the environmental implications of mineral extraction but also helps policymakers evaluate the social impacts on local communities. This research contributes to a more just and equitable transition to a sustainable energy system, ensuring that marginalized voices are heard in decision-making process.

Davis, Tyler [NETL Site Support Contractor, Nation↗

OPEN-Augmented Reality GUI for Bioenergy Crop Phenotyping and Precision Agriculture (Donald Danforth Plant Science Center Final Scientific Technical Report)

The project led by the Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, in collaboration with Arizona State University, George Washington University, and Saint Louis University, has made significant strides in advancing the phenotypic analysis of bioenergy crops through the development of an innovative AI processing pipeline. This initiative was primarily funded by ARPA-E, with additional cost-sharing provided by the participating institutions. The project successfully utilized a variety of sensors—3D scanners, thermal, RGB, and hyperspectral—to refine algorithms for data-driven trait signature identification and improve the classification and visualization of plant traits. The developed AI processing pipeline is capable of handling the complex, multidimensional data characteristic of dynamic agricultural environments. 1) Contributions to understanding: The research has advanced the field of plant phenomics by showcasing the synergistic use of various sensor data to enhance the precision of trait analysis in bioenergy crops. Through the integration of 3D scanners, thermal, RGB, and hyperspectral sensors, the project has developed robust data-driven trait signature algorithms and visualization techniques. These innovations have facilitated detailed monitoring and management of plant traits, providing vital insights into plant growth dynamics and stress responses. Further, the project has broadened our understanding of how machine learning can be effectively applied in multi-sensor environments to refine trait analysis. By leveraging diverse datasets, the research has not only improved the accuracy of phenotypic assessments but also established a versatile methodological framework that can be extended beyond agriculture to other fields requiring detailed phenotypic analysis. 2) Technical effectiveness and economic feasibility: The AI processing pipeline developed in this project demonstrated significant technical effectiveness, achieving high throughput analysis of extensive phenotypic data and meeting targeted accuracies. This system exemplified the capability of advanced machine learning technologies to efficiently manage and analyze large, complex datasets. Economically, the implementation of the project-developed pipelines may offer substantial cost savings across multiple sectors. It enhances data analysis processes and significantly reduces the need for manual data interpretation, thereby decreasing both the time and resources required. 3) Public benefit: The project has significantly broadened the scope of agricultural methodologies to enhance phenotypic analysis, with potential applications in various sectors beyond agriculture. Additionally, the initiative fostered an enriching educational and collaborative environment, significantly enhancing the technical skills of participants. It also made substantial contributions to the scientific community by providing open-access data sets and tools, encouraging ongoing research and development across various disciplines. Overall, the project not only met its scientific goals but also showcased the extensive utility of integrating advanced machine learning and sensor data analysis technologies. These advancements have proven instrumental in driving forward both theoretical research and practical applications, setting a strong foundation for future explorations and innovations in data-driven science.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Assessment of NuScale SMR Steam Heat Augmentation for Chemical Plant Decarbonization

Nearly 50% of the total energy consumed by the industrial sector in the United States is used to produce process steam with natural gas and coal-fired boilers1 . This project conducts a technoeconomic assessment of a NuScale Small Modular Reactor (SMR) coupled with a chemical plant as an Integrated Energy System (IES) where nuclear produces steam and electric power to meet the requirements of a large chemical plant. In a 2020 study, ORNL evaluated the feasibility of using advanced SMRs, including the NuScale design, to supply energy to the Eastman Chemical Plant. However, since that report was published, NuScale received NRC approval for its uprated 77 MWe design with 56% more power and has also introduced a high-temperature, high pressure, steam heat-augmentation system, a key focus of the new study. The new study also benefits from revised capital costs, a 10-day refueling outage time, reduced plant staffing, higher capacity factors, and a site boundary Emergency Planning Zone methodology. The study consists of a techno-economic assessment of two possible energy sources (nuclear and natural gas) in a number of steam and power generation configurations (NuScale Power Modules (NPMs), boilers and combinations of both) to satisfy the steam and power demand with the most reliable and cost competitive system. A total of 2,947.3 klb/hr of steam and 72.5 MWe of electricity are required for the demonstration case. A range of scenarios and solutions are explored, from a 12-NPM plant (3,000 MWth)—with excess capacity and redundancy, capable of supplying a significant amount of extra power to the grid—to a 4-NPM (1,000 MWth) plant—supplemented with existing boilers or grid power for redundancy. The study uses historical steam and power data from a chemical plant and examines the sensitivity to natural gas and grid power cost variations. Scenarios with up to two times gas and electricity costs were considered. Profitability in a 60-year time horizon was analyzed, consistent with NuScale’s design life specification. A steady-state site integration and reliability analysis was performed, and trade-offs were identified.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A machine learning degradation model for electrochemical capacitors operated at high temperature

Electrochemical capacitors (ECs) have only recently been considered as an alternative power source for telemetry sensors of drilling equipment for geothermal or oil and gas exploration. The lifecycle analysis and modelling of ECs is underrepresented in literature in comparison to other storage devices e.g. Li-ion batteries. This paper investigates the degradation of ECs when cycled outside the manufacturer-specified operating temperature envelope and proposes a machine learning-based approach for modelling the degradation. Experimental results show that end of life, defined as a 30% decrease in capacitance, occurs at 1,000 cycles when the environmental temperature exceeds the maximum operating temperature by 30%. The life-cycle test data is then used as an input to a Gaussian process regression (GPR) algorithm to predict the capacitance fade trend. The GPR is validated on a total of nine commercial cells from two different manufacturers, achieving an average root mean squared percent error of less than 2% and a mean calibration score of 93% when referenced to a 95% confidence interval. The model can be utilized to determine the EC degradation rate at a range of operating temperature values.

42 ENGINEERING↗