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At least 253 records · Page 14

Ice patterns and hydrothermal plumes, Lake Baikal, Russia - Insights from Space Shuttle hand-held photography

Earth photography from the Space Shuttle is used to examine the ice cover on Lake Baikal and correlate the patterns of weakened and melting ice with known hydrothermal areas in the Siberian lake. Particular zones of melted and broken ice may be surface expressions of elevated heat flow in Lake Baikal. The possibility is explored that hydrothermal vents can introduce local convective upwelling and disrupt a stable water column to the extent that the melt zones which are observed in the lake's ice cover are produced. A heat flow map and photographs of the lake are overlaid to compare specific areas of thinned or broken ice with the hot spots. The regions of known hydrothermal activity and high heat flow correlate extremely well with circular regions of thinned ice, and zones of broken and recrystallized ice. Local and regional climate data and other sources of warm water, such as river inlets, are considered.

Evans, Cynthia A.↗

Ice Processes and Growth History on Arctic and Sub-Arctic Lakes Using ERS-1 SAR Data

A survey of ice growth and decay processes on a selection of shallow and deep sub-Arctic and Arctic lakes was conducted using radiometrically calibrated ERS-1 SAR images. Time series of radar backscatter data were compiled for selected sites on the lakes during the period ot ice cover (September to June) for the years 1991-1992 and 1992-1993. A variety of lake-ice processes could be observed, and significant changes in backscatter occurred from the time of initial ice formation in autumn until the onset of the spring thaw. Backscatter also varied according to the location and depth of the lakes. The spatial and temporal changes in backscatter were most constant and predictable at the shallow lakes on the North Slope of Alaska. As a consequence, they represent the most promising sites for long-term monitoring and the detection of changes related to global warming and its effects on the polar regions.

Morris, K.↗

Mineralogical and Geochemical Analyses of Antarctic Lake Sediments: A Reflectance and Moessbauer Spectroscopy Study with Applications for Remote Sensing on Mars

Lakebottom sediments from the Dry Valleys region of Antarctica have been analyzed here in order to study the influence of water chemistry on the mineralogy and geochemistry of these sediments, as well as to evaluate techniques for remote spectral identification of potential biomarker minerals on Mars. Lakes from the Dry Valleys region of Antarctica have been investigated as possible analogs for extinct lake environments on early Mars. Sediment cores were collected in the present study from perennially ice-covered Lake Hoare in the Taylor Valley. These sediments were taken from a core in an oxic region of the lake and another core in an anoxic zone. Differences between the two cores were observed in the sediment color, Fe(II)/Fe(III) ratio, the presence of pyrite, the abundance of Fe, S and some trace elements, and the C, N and S isotope fractionation patterns. The results of visible-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (0.3-25 microns) Mossbauer spectroscopy (77 and 4 K) and X-ray diffraction are combined to determine the mineralogy and composition of these samples. The sediments are dominated by plagioclase, K-feldspar, quartz and pyroxene. Algal mats grow on the bottom of the lake and organic material has been found throughout the cores. Calcite is abundant in some layers of the aerobic core (shallow region) and pyrite is abundant in some layers of the anaerobic core (deep region). Analysis of the spectroscopic features due to organics and carbonates with respect to the abundance of organic C and carbonate contents was performed in order to select optimal spectral bands for remote identification of these components in planetary regoliths. Carbonate bands near 4 and 6.8 microns (approx.2500 and 1500/cm) were detected for carbonate abundances as low as 0.1 wt.% CO2. Organic features at 3.38, 3.42 and 3.51 microns (2960, 2925 and 2850/cm) were detected for organic C abundances as low as 0.06 wt.% C. The d13C trends show a more complex organic history for the anaerobic sediments than for the aerobic sediments. The biogenic pyrite found in the anaerobic core is associated with lighter d34S values and high organic C levels and could be used as a biomarker mineral for paleolakes on Mars.

Froeschl, Heinz↗

Anaerobic Halo-Alkaliphilic Baterial Community of Athalassic, Hypersaline Mono Lake in California

The microorganisms of soda Mono Lake and other similar athalassic hypersaline alkaline soda lakes are of significance to Astrobiology. The microorganisms of these regimes represent the best known terrestrial analogs for microbial life that might have inhabited the hypersaline alkaline lakes and evaporites confined within closed volcanic basins and impact craters during the late Noachian and early Hesperian epochs (3.6 - 4.2 Gya) of ancient Mars. We have investigated the anaerobic microbiota of soda Mono Lake in northern California. In this paper we discuss the astrobiological significance of these ecosystems and describe several interesting features of two novel new species of anaerobic halo-alkaliphilic bacteria (Spirochaeta americana, sp. nov. and Desulfonatronum paiuteum, sp. nov) that we have isolated from Mono Lake.

Pikuta, Elena V.↗

The Tagish Lake Meteorite as a Possible Sample from a T or D Type Asteroid

Since the Tagish Lake meteorite fell in January 2000, the one of the kind meteorite has become the hottest issue among meteoriticists as well as astrobiologists. Meanwhile, concerning the physical origin of the meteorite in our solar system, only Hiroi et al. reported that it likely came from a D asteroid based on comparison of their visible-near-infrared (Vis-NIR) reflectance spectra. However, because asteroid classification is usually performed based on a limited range of wavelength, the asteroid classes and surface compositions may not necessarily have one-to-one correspondence. Also, Hiroi et al. precluded the T-type asteroids simply because their average albedo is much higher than the visible reflectance of Tagish Lake although their spectral matches with Tagish Lake were good, and the 3-mm band spectra compiled in were not enough to compare the degree of hydration or kinds of hydrous minerals between primitive asteroids and Tagish Lake. In this paper, we employ more spectral datasets up to the 3-mm range to address the possible connection between two particular asteroids, 773 Irmintraud and 308 Polyxo, and the Tagish Lake meteorite.

Hiroi, T.↗

Identifying the Parent Body of the Tagish Lake Meteorite and Characterizing its Internal Heating History and Surface Processes

This short (1-year) funded research encompassed laboratory measurements of the Tagish Lake meteorite samples, experiments of simulated space weathering on them, and comparison with D, T, and P asteroids in reflectance spectrum. In spite of its limited funding and period, we have performed said experiments here at Brown University and at University of Tokyo. Some of the major results were reported at the Lunar and Planetary Science Conference held in Houston in March, 2004. The Tagish Lake meteorite shows a unique visible reflectance spectrum identical to that of the D and T type asteroids. After the present heating experiments at even the lowest temperature of 100 C, the characteristic spectral slope of the Tagish Lake meteorite sample increased. On the other hand, after irradiating its pellet sample with pulse laser, the slope decreased. As the result, the Tagish Lake meteorite and its processed samples have come to cover a wide range of visible reflectance spectra in slope from the C-type asteroids to some extreme T/D-type asteroids, including the P-type asteroids in between. Therefore, logically speaking, our initial affirmation that the Tagish Lake meteorite must have come from one of the D-type asteroids can be wrong if such a meteoritic material is hidden under a space-weathered surface regolith of a C-type asteroid. However, such a case is likely to have a small probability in general. Other major hits of this research includes the first spectral fitting of the P-type asteroids using reflectance spectra derived from the present research. This topic needs more experiments and analysis to be addressed uniquely, and thus further efforts will be proposed.

Hiroi, Takahiro↗

Evidence for Terrestrial Organic Contamination of the Tagish Lake Meteorite

The Tagish Lake meteorite is a rare discovery in the meteorite world. Tentatively classified as an ungrouped type 2 carbonaceous chondrite, it is the first known CI2 meteorite [1, 2, 3]. Tagish Lake is the first meteorite to exhibit a reflectance spectrum showing the red color characteristic of the D- and P-type asteroids that populate the outer main-belt [2], although many interplanetary dust particles collected from the Earth s stratosphere exhibit a similar spectrum [4]. Several large pieces of the Tagish Lake meteorite were recovered on Jan. 18, 2000. We obtained two samples of the Tagish Lake meteorite, both collected on April 24, 2000, designated MG02 and MG03, from A. Hildebrand (Univ. of Calgary) and P. Brown (Univ. of Western Ontario). Smaller fragments collected in May 2000 were purchased from the The Meteorite Market (samples designated "MM"). We have reported preliminary results from infrared and X-ray Absorption Near-edge Structure (XANES) spectroscopy on the MM samples [5]. We report evidence to suggest that there was terrestrial contamination of the meteorite, even in fragments in contact with the lake ice for only a few months .

Wirick, S.↗

Dissolved gases in perennially ice-covered lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Measurements of dissolved N2, O2, Ar, CO2, and CH4 were made in perennially ice-covered Lake Hoare. Results confirm previous reports that O2 concentrations in the upper water column exceed atmospheric equilibrium and that N2 and Ar are supersaturated throughout the water column. The mean supersaturation of N2 was found to be 2.0 (+/- 0.37) and Ar was 3.8 (+/- 1.1). The ratios of N2/Ar (20.3 +/- 13.8), and O2/Ar (22.5 +/- 4.0) at the ice-water interface are consistent with those previously measured, suggesting that bubble formation is the main process for removing gas from the lake. However, the saturations of N2 and Ar greatly exceed those previously predicted for degassing by bubble formation only at the ice-water interface. The data support the hypothesis that removal of gas by bubbles occurs in the water column to a depth of 11 m in Lake Hoare. CO2 concentration increases from near zero at the ice-water interface to 80-100 times saturation at and below the chemocline at c. 28 m. There is considerable variability in the gas concentrations throughout the water column; samples separated in depth by one metre may vary by more than 50% in gas content. It is likely that this phenomenon results from the lack of turbulent mixing in the water column. Methane (c. 2 micrograms l-1) was detected below the chemocline and immediately above the sediment/water interface at a depth of 30 m. Samples from lakes Vanda, Joyce, and Miers, also show supersaturations of O2, N2, and Ar at levels similar to levels found in Lake Hoare.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Metal dynamics in Lake Vanda (Wright Valley, Antarctica)

Data are reported for Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu and Cd in the Onyx River, and for Mn, Co, Ni, Cu and Cd in Lake Vanda, a closed-basin Antarctic lake. Oxic water concentrations for Co, Ni, Cu and Cd were quite low and approximate pelagic ocean values. Scavenging of these metals by sinking particles is strongly indicated. Deep-lake profiles reveal a sharp peak in the concentrations of Mn, Fe and Co at the oxic-anoxic boundary at 60 m. Maxima for Ni, Cu and Cd occur higher in the water column, in the vicinity of a Mn submaximum, suggesting early release of these metals from sinking manganese oxide-coated particles. A rough steady-state model leads to the conclusion that there is a large downward flux of Mn into the deep lake and that this flux is sufficient to explain the annual loss of Co, Ni, Cu and Cd. A pronounced geochemical separation between Fe and Mn apparently occurs in this system--Fe being best lost in near-shore environments and Mn being lost in deeper waters. Comparison of metal residence times in Lake Vanda with those in the oceans shows that in both systems Mn, Fe and Co are much more reactive than Ni, Cu and Cd. Energetically favorable inclusion of the more highly charged metals, Mn(IV), Fe(III) and Co(III), into oxide-based lattices is a plausible explanation.

NASA Center ARC↗

In-Situ Oxygen Isotopic Composition of Tagish Lake: An Ungrouped Type 2 Carbonaceous Chondrite

We have measured the oxygen isotopic composition of several components of Tagish Lake by ion microprobe. This meteorite constitutes the best preserved sample of C2 matter presently available for study. It presents two different lithologies (carbonate-poor and -rich) which have fairly comparable oxygen isotopic composition, with regard to both the primary or secondary minerals. For the olivine and pyroxene grains, their delta O-18 values range from - 10.5% to + 7.4% in the carbonate-poor lithology, with a mean Delta O-17 value of - 3.7 2.4%. In the carbonate-rich lithology, delta O-18 varies from - 7.9% to + 3.3%, and the mean Delta O-17 value is - 4.7 +/- 1.4%. Olivine inclusions (Fo(sub >99)) with extreme O-16-enrichment were found in both lithologies: delta O-18 = - 46.1 %, delta O-187= - 48.3% and delta O-18 = - 40.6%, delta O-17 = - 41.2% in the carbonate-rich lithology; delta O-18 = - 41.5%, delta O-17 = -43.4%0 in the carbonate-poor lithology. Anhydrous minerals in the carbonate-poor lithology are slightly more O-16-rich than in the carbonate-rich one. Four low-iron manganese-rich (LIME) olivine grains do not have an oxygen isotopic composition distinct from the other "normal" olivines. The phyllosilicate matrix presents the same range of oxygen isotopic compositions in both lithologies: delta O-18 from approximately 11 % to approximately 6%, with an average Delta. O-17 approximately 0%. Because the bulk Tagish Lake oxygen isotopic composition given by Brown et al. is on the high end of our matrix analyses, we assume that this "bulk Tagish Lake" composition probably only represents that of the carbonate-rich lithology. Calcium carbonates have delta O-18 values up to 35%, with Delta O-17 approximately 0.5%0. Magnetite grains present very high Delta O-17 values approximately + 3.4%0 +/- 1.2%. Given our analytical uncertainties and our limited carbonate data, the matrix and the carbonate seem to have formed in isotopic equilibrium. In that case, their large isotopic fractionation would argue for a low temperature (CM-like, T approximately 0 deg) formation. Magnetite probably formed during a separate event. Tagish Lake magnetite data is surprisingly compatible with that of R-chondrites and unequilibrated ordinary (LL3) chondrites. Our oxygen isotope data strongly supports the hypothesis of a single precursor for both lithologies. Drastic mineralogical changes between the two lithologies not being accompanied with isotopic fractionation seem compatible with the alteration model presented by Young et aI. Tagish Lake probably represents the first well preserved large sample of the C2 matter that dominates interplanetary matter since the formation of the solar system.

Zolensky, Michael E.↗

Investigating the Performance of the Jason-2/OSTM Radar Altimeter Over Lakes and Reservoirs

Many inland water investigations utilize archival and near-real time radar altimetry data to enable observation of the variation in surface water level. A multi-altimeter approach allows a more global outlook with improved spatial resolution, and combined long-term observations improve statistical analyses. Central to all programs is a performance assessment of each instrument. Here, we focus on data quantity and quality pertaining to the Poseidon-3 radar altimeter onboard the Jason-2/OSTM satellite.Utilizing an interim data set (IGDR), studies show that the new on-board DIODE/median and DIODE/DEM tracking modes are performing well, acquiring and maintaining the majority of lake and reservoir surfaces in varying terrains. The 20-Hz along-track resolution of the data, and particularly the availability of the range output from the ice-retracker algorithm, also improves the number of valid height measurements. Based on test-case lakes and reservoirs, output from the ice-retracker algorithm is also seen to have a clear advantage over the ocean-retracker having better height stability across calm and icy surfaces, a greater ability to gain coastline waters, and less sensitivity to loss of water surface when there is island contamination in the radar echo. Such on-board tracking and postprocessing retracking enables the lake waters to be quickly gained after coastline crossing. Values can range from <0.1 s to 2.5 s, but the majority of measurements are obtained in less than 0.4 s or <2.3 km from the coast. Validation exercises reveal that targets of 150 km2 surface area and 0.8 km width are able to be monitored offering greater potential to acquire lakes in the 100 C300 km2 size-category. Time series of height variations are also found to be accurate to 3 to 33 cm rms depending on target size and the presence of winter ice. These findings are an improvement over the IGDR/GDR results from the predecessor Jason-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon missions and can satisfy the accuracy requirements of both the science-related and operational lake study programs.

Birkett, C. M.↗

Unusual Nonterrestrial L-proteinogenic Amino Acid excesses in the Tagish Lake Meteorite

The distribution and isotopic and enantiomeric compositions of amino acids found in three distinct fragments of the Tagish Lake C2-type carbonaceous chondrite were investigated via liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection and time-of-flight mass spectrometry and gas chromatography isotope ratio mass spectrometry. Large L-enantiomeric excesses (L(sub ee) approximately 43-59%) of the alpha-hydrogen aspartic and glutamic amino acids were measured in Tagish Lake, whereas alanine, another alpha hydrogen protein amino acid, was found to be nearly racemic (D much approximately L) using both techniques. Carbon isotope measurements of D- and L-aspartic acid and 1)- and L-alanine in Tagish Lake fall well outside of the terrestrial range and indicate that the measured aspartic acid enantioenrichment is indigenous to the meteorite. Alternate explanations for the L-excesses of aspartic acid such as interference from other compounds present in the sample, analytical biases, or terrestrial amino acid contamination were investigated and rejected. These results can be explained by differences in the solid-solution phase behavior of aspartic acid, which can form conglomerate enantiopure solids during crystallization, and alanine, which can only form racemic crystals. Amplification of a small initial L-enantiomer excess during aqueous alteration on the meteorite parent body could have led to the large L-enrichments observed for aspartic acid and other conglomerate amino acids in Tagish Lake. The detection of non terrestrial L-proteinogenic amino acid excesses in the Tagish Lake meteorite provides support for the hypothesis that significant enantiomeric enrichments for some amino acids could form by abiotic processes prior to the emergence of life.

Glavin, Daniel P.↗

Comparing Physics Scheme Performance for a Lake Effect Snowfall Event in Northern Lower Michigan

High resolution forecast models, such as those used to predict severe convective storms, can also be applied to predictions of lake effect snowfall. A high resolution WRF model forecast model is provided to support operations at NWS WFO Gaylord, Michigan, using a 12 ]km and 4 ]km nested configuration. This is comparable to the simulations performed by other NWS WFOs adjacent to the Great Lakes, including offices in the NWS Eastern Region who participate in regional ensemble efforts. Ensemble efforts require diversity in initial conditions and physics configurations to emulate the plausible range of events in order to ascertain the likelihood of different forecast scenarios. In addition to providing probabilistic guidance, individual members can be evaluated to determine whether they appear to be biased in some way, or to better understand how certain physics configurations may impact the resulting forecast. On January 20 ]21, 2011, a lake effect snow event occurred in Northern Lower Michigan, with cooperative observing and CoCoRaHS stations reporting new snow accumulations between 2 and 8 inches and liquid equivalents of 0.1 ]0.25 h. The event of January 21, 2011 was particularly well observed, with numerous surface reports available. It was also well represented by the WRF configuration operated at NWS Gaylord. Given that the default configuration produced a reasonable prediction, it is used here to evaluate the impacts of other physics configurations on the resulting prediction of the primary lake effect band and resulting QPF. Emphasis here is on differences in planetary boundary layer and cloud microphysics parameterizations, given their likely role in determining the evolution of shallow convection and precipitation processes. Results from an ensemble of seven microphysics schemes and three planetary boundary layer schemes are presented to demonstrate variability in forecast evolution, with results used in an attempt to improve the forecasts in the 2011 ]2012 lake effect season.

Molthan, Andrew↗

In-Situ Missions for the Exploration of Titan's Lakes

The lakes of Titan represent an increasingly tantalizing target for future exploration. As Cassini continues to reveal more details the lakes appear to offer a particularly rich reservoir of knowledge that could provide insights to Titan's formation and evolution, as well as an ideal location to explore Titan's potential for pre-biotic chemistry. A recent study of Titan Lake Probe missions was undertaken as one of several dozen studies commissioned by the National Research Council (NRC) Planetary Decadal Survey to explore the technical readiness, feasibility and affordability of scientifically promising mission scenarios. This in-depth study focused on an in-situ examination of a hydrocarbon lake on the Saturnian moon Titan--a target that presents unique scientific opportunities as well as several unique engineering challenges (e.g., submersion systems and cryogenic sampling) to enable those measurements. Per direction from the NRC Planetary Decadal Survey Satellites Panel, and after an initial trade-space examination, study architectures focused on three possible New Frontiers-class missions and a more ambitious Flagship-class lander intended as the in-situ portion of a larger collaborative mission. Detailed point designs were developed to explore these four potential mission options, including consideration of flight system and mission designs, as well as operations on and under the lake's surface and scenarios for data return. In this paper we present an overview of the science objectives of the missions, the mission architecture and surface.

Elliott, John O.↗

Modeling the Thickness of Perennial Ice Covers on Stratified Lakes of the Taylor Valley, Antarctica

A one-dimensional ice cover model was developed to predict and constrain drivers of long term ice thickness trends in chemically stratified lakes of Taylor Valley, Antarctica. The model is driven by surface radiative heat fluxes and heat fluxes from the underlying water column. The model successfully reproduced 16 years (between 1996 and 2012) of ice thickness changes for west lobe of Lake Bonney (average ice thickness = 3.53 m; RMSE = 0.09 m, n = 118) and Lake Fryxell (average ice thickness = 4.22 m; RMSE = 0.21 m, n = 128). Long-term ice thickness trends require coupling with the thermal structure of the water column. The heat stored within the temperature maximum of lakes exceeding a liquid water column depth of 20 m can either impede or facilitate ice thickness change depending on the predominant climatic trend (temperature cooling or warming). As such, shallow (< 20 m deep water columns) perennially ice-covered lakes without deep temperature maxima are more sensitive indicators of climate change. The long-term ice thickness trends are a result of surface energy flux and heat flux from the deep temperature maximum in the water column, the latter of which results from absorbed solar radiation.

heat fluxes from the underlying water column↗

The Application of Remote Sensing and Machine Learning to Improve Early Warning Systems for Harmful Algal Events in the Highland Lake Chain, TX

Beginning in 2019, harmful algal events have caused canine deaths in both Lady Bird Lake and Lake Travis located near Austin, Texas. These two reservoirs are part of the larger Highland Lakes chain, managed by the City of Austin Department of Watershed Protection (COA DWP) and the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), which fulfill municipal, commercial, and agricultural water demands. Given the recent increase in favorable environmental conditions for algal events in central Texas, NASA DEVELOP partnered with LCRA and COA DWP to improve monitoring and early detection of algal events, utilizing satellite remote sensing and machine learning. Spatially and temporally varied chlorophyll a concentrations, cyanobacteria detections, turbidity, and water surface temperature products are used as environmental proxies. Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and the Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) data were used to provide a combined revisit time of up to ~3 days and < 30 m per pixel products. Chlorophyll a concentrations were estimated using a pre-trained Mixture Density Network, and cyanobacteria detection was accomplished using the Broad Wavelength Algae Index, which can differentiate algal blooms from algal proliferations (mats). In situ data were used to validate remotely sensed measurements and quantify uncertainties. Preliminary results show a good fit between the modeled output and in situ observations, suggesting that remote sensing data can be used to retrieve biogeochemical properties and/or inherent optical properties (IOPs) of water columns in these inland human-made lakes. Uncertainties were introduced from the sensitivity to atmospheric correction, inherent mismatch between satellite and sampling data, and a relatively lower signal-to-noise ratio over water. The resulting products enable near real-time monitoring of environmental proxies relevant to algal event presence in the Highland Lakes chain, and will ultimately support water management, decision making, and risk communication.

Shuyu Chang↗

Satellites for long-term monitoring of inland U.S. lakes: The MERIS time series and application for chlorophyll-a

Lakes and other surface fresh waterbodies provide drinking water, recreational and economic opportunities, food, and other critical support for humans, aquatic life, and ecosystem health. Lakes are also productive ecosystems that provide habitats and influence global cycles. Chlorophyll concentration provides a common metric of water quality, and is frequently used as a proxy for lake trophic state. Here, we document the generation and distribution of the complete MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS; Appendix A provides a complete list of abbreviations) radiometric time series for over 2300 satellite resolvable inland bodies of water across the contiguous United States (CONUS) and more than 5,000 in Alaska. This contribution greatly increases the ease of use of satellite remote sensing data for inland water quality monitoring, as well as highlights new horizons in inland water remote sensing algorithm development. We evaluate the performance of satellite remote sensing Cyanobacteria Index (CI)-based chlorophyll algorithms, the retrievals for which provide surrogate estimates of phytoplankton concentrations in cyanobacteria dominated lakes. Our analysis quantifies the algorithms' abilities to assess lake trophic state across the CONUS. As a case study, we apply a bootstrapping approach to derive a new CI-to-chlorophyll relationship, ChlBS, which performs relatively well with a multiplicative bias of 1.11 (11%) and mean absolute error of 1.60 (60%). While the primary contribution of this work is the distribution of the MERIS radiometric timeseries, we provide this case study as a roadmap for future stakeholders' algorithm development activities, as well as a tool to assess the strengths and weaknesses of applying a single algorithm across CONUS.

MERIS timeseries↗

Landslide Runout Analysis Using Remote Sensing for Lower and Upper Barun Lakes

Landslides are recognized as common triggers of glacial lake outburst floods in high mountain regions, but the remoteness of dangerous glacial lakes makes monitoring and disaster management very difficult. Using a very high resolution digital elevation model produced from a series of stereo satellite images, we simulate debris flows and rock avalanche runout around two very dangerous lakes in high mountain Nepal. We constrain particularly likely sources of these slope failures to simulate 79,800 potential debris flows and rock avalanches of volumes ranging from 1,000 m3 to 1,000,000 m3. This allowed us to identify zones in and around dangerous glacial lakes that are most exposed to landslide runout hazards, along with the most frequent source areas that produced landslides that may run into either of the two glacial lakes. Although our empirical-statistical model presented limitations that numerical models attempt to overcome, our probabilistic approach combined with a very high resolution DEM may shed new light on how to identify sources and impact areas of debris flows and rock avalanches that may cascade into downstream disasters.

landslides↗