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NASA NTRS1991

Cost-effective optical switch matrix for microwave phased-array

An all-fiber (6x6) optical shutter switch matrix with the control system for microwave phased array has been demonstrated. The device offers the advantages of integrated configuration, low cost, low power consumption, small size, and light weight. The maximum extinction ratio (among 36 individual pixel) of this switch matrix at 840 nm is 24.2 dB, and the switching time is less than 120 microsec. In addition to phased array application, this low cost switch matrix is extremely attractive for fiber optic switching networks.

Pan, J. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Acceleration of Thermochemistry Solves in MOOSE and Pronghorn

This work focuses on the development and implementation of strategies to accelerate thermochemical calculations within MOOSE-based multiphysics simulations, particularly for applications in MSRs. We highlight the inherent complexity of nuclear materials, which require a multiscale approach to accurately model their behavior across various physical domains, including mechanical, chemical, and thermal phenomena. Thermochemical equilibrium calculations are crucial for predicting material properties and enhancing the fidelity of these simulations. The integration of Thermochimica, a Gibbs energy minimizer, into MOOSE allows for the direct minimization of Gibbs energy at every point on the mesh. However, the computational cost of such integration is significant. To address this, we explored acceleration strategies such as multi-threading support and the use of a thermodynamic ValueCache to reduce redundant calculations. Additionally, we investigated modifications to Thermochimica to enable phase constraints and improve its coupling with phase-field models, which are essential for simulating microstructural evolution and corrosion in MSR. These efforts aim to optimize the computational efficiency and accuracy of multiphysics simulations, thereby supporting the development of reliable and efficient nuclear materials for next-generation reactor technologies.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2015

Project Morpheus: Lean Development of a Terrestrial Flight Testbed for Maturing NASA Lander Technologies

NASA's Morpheus Project has developed and tested a prototype planetary lander capable of vertical takeoff and landing that is designed to serve as a testbed for advanced spacecraft technologies. The lander vehicle, propelled by a Liquid Oxygen (LOX)/Methane engine and sized to carry a 500kg payload to the lunar surface, provides a platform for bringing technologies from the laboratory into an integrated flight system at relatively low cost. In 2012, Morpheus began integrating the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) sensors and software onto the vehicle in order to demonstrate safe, autonomous landing and hazard avoidance. From the beginning, one of goals for the Morpheus Project was to streamline agency processes and practices. The Morpheus project accepted a challenge to tailor the traditional NASA systems engineering approach in a way that would be appropriate for a lower cost, rapid prototype engineering effort, but retain the essence of the guiding principles. This paper describes the tailored project life cycle and systems engineering approach for the Morpheus project, including the processes, tools, and amount of rigor employed over the project's multiple lifecycles since the project began in fiscal year (FY) 2011.

Devolites, Jennifer L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative Risk Analysis of High Safety Significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants using IRADIC Technology

This report documents the activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2021 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. In FY-2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems (IRADIC technology) was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the High Safety Significant Safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) develop an advanced risk assessment technology to support transition from analog to DI&C technologies for nuclear industry, (3) assure the long-term safety and reliability of vital HSSSR DI&C systems, (4) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the IRADIC technology is instructive for nuclear vendors and utilities to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify responding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the individual level, system level, and plant level, (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks; thus, to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). In this report, an approach for performing software CCF analysis, given limited data, is developed and demonstrated using a case study of a highly redundant digital reactor trip system. Consequence analysis is also performed based on different accident scenarios. Results indicate that plant modernization including the improvement of HSSSR DI&C systems will make great benefits to plant safety by providing more safety margins to accident management. In addition, a novel approach is proposed in this report for the quantification of software hazards when sufficient operational and testing data available. The method incorporates software development quality as well as strong analysis techniques to identify and link software defects to potential failure modes. The approach includes both semantic and test-based analysis to detect failures that can exist in different stages of the software development life cycle. This method is applied to an advanced human system interface relevant to reactor trip safety developed from the APR 1400 design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Systems Integration Challenges for a National Space Launch System

System Integration was refined through the complexity and early failures experienced in rocket flight. System Integration encompasses many different viewpoints of the system development. System Integration must ensure consistency in development and operations activities. Human Space Flight tends toward large, complex systems. Understanding the system fs operational and use context is the guiding principle for System Integration: (1) Sizeable costs can be driven into systems by not fully understanding context (2). Adhering to the system context throughout the system fs life cycle is essential to maintaining efficient System Integration. System Integration exists within the System Architecture. Beautiful systems are simple in use and operation -- Block upgrades facilitate manageable steps in functionality evolution. Effective System Integration requires a stable system concept. Communication is essential to system simplicity

May, Todd A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Risk Analysis of Various Design Architectures for High Safety-significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems of Nuclear Power Plants during Accident Scenarios

This report documents the plus-up activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the high safety-significant safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing advanced risk-informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions and diversity and redundancy applications, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of HSSSR DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the LWRS-developed framework instructs nuclear vendors and utilities on how to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). Adding diversity within system or components is the main means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases plant complexity and errors and may not address all sources of systematic failures. How to optimize the diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the framework provides: ? An integrated best-estimate, risk-informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, accurately, and efficiently in plan modernization progress, such as software CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs ? A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to efficiently predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems ? Technical bases and risk-informed insights to assist U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry to address and fulfill the risk-informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs ? An integrated risk-informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The plus-up research and development efforts of this project in FY 2022 are focused on methodology improvement of software CCF modeling and estimation, prevention analysis, importance analysis and risk analysis of various design architectures of HSSSR DI&C systems. This work greatly enhances the capability of the LWRS-developed framework for the risk assessment and design optimization of safety-critical DI&C systems. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the LWRS-developed framework, not for the evaluation of relevant systems. Results are obtained based on very limited design information and testing data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimized V1G and V2G Electric Vehicle Fleet Management and Grid Transaction at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, CA

The overall technical goal of the project was to demonstrate an all-electric bi-directional non-tactical fleet at Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Miramar that was integrated and controlled with other distributed energy resources (DERs) (i.e., PV, stationary battery, and building loads) to provide resilience to critical electric loads in the event of grid outages, to minimize charging costs, and to provide economic energy resources to electricity markets. In this project, the specific, technical objectives were: 1. Demonstrate that bi-directional electric vehicles can provide critical complementary services to fixed storage batteries in microgrid applications while performing function as non-tactical vehicles. 2. Demonstrate participation of bi-directional (V2G) and unidirectional (V1G) PEVs for demand management and minimization of charging costs. 3. Demonstrate integration of multiple DERs for grid service participation. US Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Miramar in San Diego was the site of this electric vehicle-to-microgrid-utility grid test and demonstration project. Existing microgrid assets in this study included (1) a public works building; (2) a 30-kW rooftop photovoltaic (PV) system and (3) a separate 250 kW carport PV system. In this project, six bi-directional V2G vans were located at the MCAS Miramar’s showcase building-scale microgrid to develop and test technical capabilities that V2G can provide in microgrid applications (e.g., cost reduction and resiliency). These resources provided aggregated demand management and simulated participation in current retail DR programs. The vehicles used in this demonstration were selected because they provided functionality that MCAS Miramar needed, 15 passenger transport and facilities work cargo carrying capacity, and bi-directional charging capability that the research project required. All vehicles in this study were manufactured and distributed by VIA Motors, Inc. There were six vehicles total and each was VIA’s VTRUX eREV V2G model, a modified General Motors Chevrolet 2500 2WD van. Three of the vans were configured as passenger vans and the other three were configured as cargo vans. Each van had an on-board bi-direcrtional inverter/charger, Bel Power Solutions model 350INVCHGT150-120-240-8G nominally rated at +/-15 kW. The VIA van’s charging connector follows the J1772 charging protocol. The bi-directional EVSEs demonstrated in this study were manufactured by Coritech, Inc. Each VGI-80-AC charging station enabled enhanced V2G charging capability to a Clipper Creek CS-100 charging module. The enhanced capabilities included ethernet communication following the SEP2.0 protocol with a distributed energy resource function set and an operator screen displaying real-time SOC, voltage, and current. The VGI-80-AC charging stations are classified as level 2 with a maximum current output of 80 A or effectively 19 kW. The VIA van’s onboard charger limited the charging and discharging power to 15 kW in each direction. A control computer was installed in the EWOC and connected to an existing monitor. The V2G control communication network was a completely stand-alone closed system that did not have any connection to any other networks on the base. A cybersecure remote communication connection was created with a cellular modem, firewall hardware, and a virtual private network configuration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Into the Grid: Key Issues

To foster sustainable, low-emission development, many countries are establishing ambitious renewable energy targets for their electricity supply. The variability of solar and wind compared to traditional sources, coupled with growing demand for electricity, requires changes to power system planning and operations to meet these targets. Grid integration is the practice of developing efficient ways to deliver variable renewable energy (VRE), primarily wind and solar, to the grid. Good integration methods maximize the cost-effectiveness of incorporating VRE while maintaining or increasing system stability and reliability. To inform decarbonization strategies, policymakers, regulators, and system operators consider a variety of costs and opportunities associated with VRE integration, which can be organized into five topics: New renewable energy generation and transmission; Power system reliability; Transmission and distribution coordination; Cross-sectoral decarbonization opportunities; Energy equity and justice.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1991

Definition, technology readiness, and development cost of the orbit transfer vehicle engine integrated control and health monitoring system elements

An Integrated Control and Health Monitoring (ICHM) system was conceived for use on a 20 Klb thrust baseline Orbit Transfer Vehicle (OTV) engine. Considered for space used, the ICHM was defined for reusability requirements for an OTV engine service free life of 20 missions, with 100 starts and a total engine operational time of 4 hours. Functions were derived by flowing down requirements from NASA guidelines, previous OTV engine or ICHM documents, and related contracts. The elements of an ICHM were identified and listed, and these elements were described in sufficient detail to allow estimation of their technology readiness levels. These elements were assessed in terms of technology readiness level, and supporting rationale for these assessments presented. The remaining cost for development of a minimal ICHM system to technology readiness level 6 was estimated. The estimates are within an accuracy range of minus/plus 20 percent. The cost estimates cover what is needed to prepare an ICHM system for use on a focussed testbed for an expander cycle engine, excluding support to the actual test firings.

Cannon, I.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chip-integrated metasurface full-Stokes polarimetric imaging sensor

Abstract Polarimetric imaging has a wide range of applications for uncovering features invisible to human eyes and conventional imaging sensors. Chip-integrated, fast, cost-effective, and accurate full-Stokes polarimetric imaging sensors are highly desirable in many applications, which, however, remain elusive due to fundamental material limitations. Here we present a chip-integrated Meta surface-based Full-Stokes Polar imetric Im aging sensor (MetaPolarIm) realized by integrating an ultrathin (~600 nm) metasurface polarization filter array (MPFA) onto a visible imaging sensor with CMOS compatible fabrication processes. The MPFA is featured with broadband dielectric-metal hybrid chiral metasurfaces and double-layer nanograting polarizers. This chip-integrated polarimetric imaging sensor enables single-shot full-Stokes imaging (speed limited by the CMOS imager) with the most compact form factor, records high measurement accuracy, dual-color operation (green and red) and a field of view up to 40 degrees. MetaPolarIm holds great promise to enable transformative applications in autonomous vision, industry inspection, space exploration, medical imaging and diagnosis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modular HF Isolated MV String Inverters Enable a New Paradigm for Large PV Farms

The “Modular HF Isolated MV String Inverters Enable a New Paradigm for Large PV Farms” project focuses on exploring alternative power converter and system-level plant configurations to achieve the lowest cost and highest energy output for a given solar plus storage (e.g., PV + battery) plant, including the use of medium voltage (MV) collection while taking into account detailed models of all elements. To realize this objective, four approaches were utilized (i) employ a novel Medium Voltage String Inverter (MVSI) topology (soft switching solid state transformer – S4T) to convert 1000 Vdc to 4.16 kVac; (ii) plant collection using standard, low-cost overhead MV distribution network; (iii) enable energy storage integration without additional converter cost to achieve dispatchability of the PV resource; and (iv) provide advanced functionality (autonomous operation, track ISO signals for dynamic balancing and ancillary services, and PV farm operation as a virtual grid resource). Subsequently and in alignment with the previously mentioned approaches, the project was structured in five efforts (i) S4T MVSI simulation and design; (ii) system analysis and storage optimization; (iii) financial analysis; (iv) power converter prototype build and test; and (v) regulatory and commercial impact study. The outcomes provided by each effort can be summarized as follows (i) Project explored the use of MV AC distribution architecture for hybrid PV+storage utility-scale PV farms; (ii) Detailed loss and LCOE analysis for AC and DC side BESS architecture, including multiple converter topologies, as well as for proposed MVSI/MDCT systems; (iii) MVSI was built and holds promise but needs lower-cost high-voltage Si-C devices, which does not seem possible in the near term; (iv) MDCT provides a simpler modular building block – validated through HIL and farm level modeling, simulation and experimental validation; (v) 300 kVA MDCT prototype built and tested, technology is being commercialized; and (vi) Regulatory model of utility building PV plants, where PV panels are treated as DC generation (IPP), seems viable and can allow improved grid integration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Sensitivities of projected 1980 photovoltaic system costs to major system cost drivers

The sensitivity of projected 1990 photovoltaic (PV) system costs to major system cost drivers was examined. It includes: (1) module costs and module efficiencies; (2) area related balance of system (BOS) costs; (3) inverter costs and efficiencies; and (4) module marketing and distribution markups and system integration fees. Recent PV system cost experiences and the high costs of electricity from the systems are reviewed. The 1990 system costs are projected for five classes of PV systems, including four ground mounted 5-MWp systems and one residential 5-kWp system. System cost projections are derived by first projecting costs and efficiencies for all subsystems and components. Sensitivity analyses reveal that reductions in module cost and engineering and system integration fees seem to have the greatest potential for contributing to system cost reduction. Although module cost is clearly the prime candidate for fruitful PV research and development activities, engineering and system integration fees seem to be more amenable to reduction through appropriate choice of system size and market strategy. Increases in inverter and module efficiency yield significant benefits, especially for systems with high area related costs.

Zimmerman, L. W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Integrated Energy Systems Prototype Human-System Interface for a Steam Extraction Loop System to Support Joint Electricity-Hydrogen Flexible Operations

Due to increasing economic competition from renewables and combined-cycle natural gas plants, nuclear power plants are looking toward flexible operations to enhance their cost competitiveness. The Integrated Energy Systems project under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program of the U.S. Department of Energy focuses on joint electricity-hydrogen flexible operations. Joint electricity-hydrogen flexible operations entail the nuclear power plant diverting thermal energy via main steam to a hydrogen production plant located nearby. The steam serves to enhance the efficiency of the hydrogen production. Furthermore, high temperature electrolysis requires a large amount of electricity, which the plant can also provide. The plant provides steam and electricity to the hydrogen plant throughout the day, but during peak demand hours the nuclear power plant returns to solely providing electricity to meet the high demand. Through this flexible concept of operations, the plant can optimize the thermal energy it produces without having to maneuver the power of the plant. This report documents the human factors process to design and develop a prototype human-system interface for the steam extraction loop that serves as the conduit between the nuclear power plant and the adjacent hydrogen plant. The design process followed the human factors guidelines set by NUREG-0711, Human Factors Engineering Program Review Model (O’Hara, Higgins, & Fleger, 2012), and expanded upon by the Guideline for Operational Nuclear Usability and Knowledge Elicitation (GONUKE; Boring, Ulrich, Joe, & Lew, 2015; Boring, Lew, & Ulrich, 2016). The design process entailed operator interviews to determine the concept of operations for the steam extraction loop, a review and adaptation of digital interface design concepts developed by the team in prior projects, an iterative design process, and reviews conducted by both operators and human factors experts. Several versions of the prototype human-system interface were developed. Operators were interviewed to determine what design features they found useful and would like to see in the interface. The design underwent a review by human factors experts against NUREG-0700, Human Interface Design Review Guidelines (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2019), to ensure compliance with the latest human factors standards for digital interfaces in nuclear applications. The design was then prototyped as a functional windows-based application integrated with the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator modified to include the steam extraction loop. The simulation is supported by the Human Systems Simulation Laboratory at Idaho National Laboratory, which supports operator-in-the-loop testing. This is an ongoing project and the next phase of the project entails performing an operator-in-the-loop usability study to evaluate the interface and examine the proposed concept of operations to extraction steam from the nuclear power plant for delivery to the coupled hydrogen production plant.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Scheduling revisited workstations in integrated-circuit fabrication

The cost of building new semiconductor wafer fabrication factories has grown rapidly, and a state-of-the-art fab may cost 250 million dollars or more. Obtaining an acceptable return on this investment requires high productivity from the fabrication facilities. This paper describes the Photo Dispatcher system which was developed to make machine-loading recommendations on a set of key fab machines. Dispatching policies that generally perform well in job shops (e.g., Shortest Remaining Processing Time) perform poorly for workstations such as photolithography which are visited several times by the same lot of silicon wafers. The Photo Dispatcher evaluates the history of workloads throughout the fab and identifies bottleneck areas. The scheduler then assigns priorities to lots depending on where they are headed after photolithography. These priorities are designed to avoid starving bottleneck workstations and to give preference to lots that are headed to areas where they can be processed with minimal waiting. Other factors considered by the scheduler to establish priorities are the nearness of a lot to the end of its process flow and the time that the lot has already been waiting in queue. Simulations that model the equipment and products in one of Texas Instrument's wafer fabs show the Photo Dispatcher can produce a 10 percent improvement in the time required to fabricate integrated circuits.

Kline, Paul J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Titanium-Cerium Electrode-Decoupled Redox Flow Batteries Integrated With Fossil Fuel Assets For Load-Following, Long-Duration Energy Storage

Operation of fossil plants at partial capacity with frequent cycling results in decreased efficiency, increased emissions and increased wear and maintenance. The objective of this project is to advance the integration of a titanium-cerium electrode-decoupled redox flow battery (RFB) system with conventional fossil-fueled power plants through technical and economic system-level studies and component scale-up and R&D. The Ti-Ce chemistry has a pathway to meet the DOE cost targets of $\$$100/kWh and $\$$0.05/kWh-cycle owing to the use of low-cost, earth abundant elemental actives and incorporation of inexpensive carbon felt electrodes and non-fluorinated anion exchange membrane (AEM) separators. The initial unit cell design was scaled up, with some modifications made to improve ease of manufacturing, from 25 cm 2 cell area to 400 cm 2 . Electrochemical tests demonstrated operation at a current density up to 50 mA/cm 2 , which is on par with other commercial RFB offerings. Furthermore, the Ti-Ce technology developed by WashU was evaluated and tested by industrial team partner, Giner, Inc., in their modular 3-cell stack. Several cell design modifications and alternate component material selections were successfully implemented to accommodate this chemistry while reducing polarization and leakage. Results from stack testing show high columbic efficiency and indicate that further optimization of cell compression and components will lead to successful operation of the Ti-Ce ED-RFB over longer duration at the multi-cell stack level. Engineering and cost analysis showed that an RFB system with power output on the order of 100 MW and with a charge/discharge duration of approx. 12 hours is the most cost effective for integration with fossil plants. At this scale, projected cycling of fossil fuel power plants can be significantly reduced. The use of a storage system is shown to reduce the fossil plant standalone cost of electricity by $\$$7/MWh, through increased capacity factor and improved average efficiency, in the scenario of high penetration of renewable power.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1975

SEPS guidance and navigation autonomy selection via mission analysis

A systematic rationale for selecting a cost-effective guidance and navigation (G & N) autonomy level for the solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS) vehicle is developed. After a definition of autonomy levels, a mission analysis is performed for representative SEPS missions using realistic G & N sensor hardware. Cost data for fabricating, integrating and refurbishing onboard avionics hardware and the ground costs corresponding to each autonomy level are generated. Results are presented that indicate performance of various G & N sensor hardware sets and the dominating factors which influence G & N autonomy level selection.

Causey, W.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?

Hydropower accounts for approximately 60% of electricity generation in Canada, with growth expected in the coming decades as part of renewable energy transitions; however, frequent cost overruns threaten the viability of this growth. Here, using the integrated assessment model GCAM, we develop an endogenous representation of hydropower for Canada that accounts for market dynamics, thus permitting analysis of hydropower competition with other electricity generation technologies, both with and without cost overruns. Results show that modelling hydropower resources endogenously increases Canadian hydropower deployment relative to an assumption of fixed hydropower production, from 417 to 495 TWh annually by 2050. In scenarios that apply cost overruns at historical levels, hydropower loses market share to more easily scalable technologies like wind power. When including high cost overrun assumptions, the model determines that hydropower falls from about 73% to 65% of Canadian electricity generation by 2050, while wind power increases from about 8% to 11%. Countries may be better able to achieve electrification and renewable energy targets at lower cost by avoiding large-scale, overrun-prone hydropower and nuclear generation projects. Model results support that cost overruns are important considerations for policy decisions related to electricity sector development in Canada and elsewhere.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Shared visions: Partnership of Rockwell International and NASA Cost Effectiveness Enhancements (CEE) for the space shuttle system integration program

As a result of limited resources and tight fiscal constraints over the past several years, the defense and aerospace industries have experienced a downturn in business activity. The impact of fewer contracts being awarded has placed a greater emphasis for effectiveness and efficiency on industry contractors. It is clear that a reallocation of resources is required for America to continue to lead the world in space and technology. The key to technological and economic survival is the transforming of existing programs, such as the Space Shuttle Program, into more cost efficient programs so as to divert the savings to other NASA programs. The partnership between Rockwell International and NASA and their joint improvement efforts that resulted in significant streamlining and cost reduction measures to Rockwell International Space System Division's work on the Space Shuttle System Integration Contract is described. This work was a result of an established Cost Effectiveness Enhancement (CEE) Team formed initially in Fiscal Year 1991, and more recently expanded to a larger scale CEE Initiative in 1992. By working closely with the customer in agreeing to contract content, obtaining management endorsement and commitment, and involving the employees in total quality management (TQM) and continuous improvement 'teams,' the initial annual cost reduction target was exceeded significantly. The CEE Initiative helped reduce the cost of the Shuttle Systems Integration contract while establishing a stronger program based upon customer needs, teamwork, quality enhancements, and cost effectiveness. This was accomplished by systematically analyzing, challenging, and changing the established processes, practices, and systems. This examination, in nature, was work intensive due to the depth and breadth of the activity. The CEE Initiative has provided opportunities to make a difference in the way Rockwell and NASA work together - to update the methods and processes of the organizations. The future success of NASA space programs and Rockwell hinges upon the ability to adopt new, more efficient and effective work processes. Efficiency, proficiency, cost effectiveness, and teamwork are a necessity for economic survival. Continuous improvement initiatives like the CEE are, and will continue to be, vehicles by which the road can be traveled with a vision to the future.

Bejmuk, Bohdan I.↗