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DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

Abstract Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of future land-use transitions generally lack dynamic representation of urban lands. Here, we conduct an experiment incorporating dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework. We integrate projected dynamic non-urban lands from a multisector model with projected dynamic urban lands from 2015 to 2100 at 1-km resolution to examine 1 st -order implications to the land system, crop production, and net primary production that can arise from the competition over land resources. By 2100, future urban extensification could displace 0.1 to 1.4 million km 2 of agriculture lands, leading to 22 to 310 Mt of compromised corn, rice, soybean, and wheat production. When considering increased corn production required to meet demands by 2100, urban extensification could cut increases in yields by half. Losses in net primary production from displaced forest, grassland, and croplands ranged from 0.24 to 2.24 Gt C yr −1 , potentially increasing land emissions by 1.19 to 6.59 Gt CO 2 yr −1 . Although these estimates do not consider adaptive responses, 1 st -order experiments can elucidate the individual role of sub-sectors that would otherwise be masked by model complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unlocking the Future of Aircraft Manufacturing: The Environmental Benefits of Laser Patterning for Surface Enhancement of Aircraft-Certified Alloys

Surface protection and functional modification of aircraft-certified aluminum alloys are essential for corrosion resistance, durability, and long-term airworthiness. At the same time, increasingly restrictive environmental regulations motivate the development of alternatives to legacy wet-chemical surface treatments. This study presents an integrated assessment of ultrafast femtosecond laser surface texturing as a surface functionalization approach for Aluminum 6061 alloys within an aerospace manufacturing and sustainability context. Ultrashort-pulse laser processing enables controlled micro- and nano-scale surface topographical modification with limited thermal impact, allowing adjustment of wettability and surface functionality while preserving bulk material integrity. As a dry and contactless process, femtosecond laser treatment eliminates the use of hazardous chemicals, reduces consumable inputs, and generates minimal secondary waste. A streamlined cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment conducted in accordance with ISO 14040/14044 indicates a lower global-warming potential per functional unit compared with conventional surface treatments, including anodization, plasma-assisted coatings, and organic coating systems. Complementary qualitative analyses addressing environmental health and safety, supply-chain risk, and ESG alignment indicate potential advantages related to occupational safety, regulatory compliance, waste management, and end-of-life recyclability. The investigation is performed on planar Aluminum 6061 reference surfaces with a treated area of 25 mm 2 , providing a controlled laboratory-scale basis for analyzing process behavior, functional surface modification, and associated environmental metrics. Within this defined scope, the results support further evaluation of femtosecond laser surface texturing as a surface engineering option for future aerospace manufacturing.

corrosion resistance↗

NASA NTRS2015

Simulation and Analysis of Technology and Operational Procedures to Reduce the Combined Effects of Emissions and Contrails

The development and evaluation of concepts and technology to support future air traffic management systems require a hierarchy of models ranging from real-time simulations to extensive field evaluations. Air traffic simulation models such as Airspace Concept Evaluation System, Center Tracon Automation System, Future Air traffic management Concept Evaluation Tool and others are used to design air traffic systems balancing the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety, meeting future demands for airports and airspace and increase efficiency of traffic flows in the presence of uncertain weather. The impact of aviation emissions and contrails on climate imposes another constraint on the design of aircraft and aviation operations. The understanding of the complex interaction between physical climate system, the carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity can be improved by the development of integrated assessment models that include emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations. The modeling of aircraft emissions and their interaction with each other to change the concentration levels of different gasses in the atmosphere and the resulting impact of the radiative forcing on the equilibrium of the Earth's atmosphere is complex and requires the use of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models together with three-dimensional models of carbon cycle and chemistry of other non-CO2 greenhouse gases. These models are computationally intensive and unsuitable for studies involving the generation of multiple scenarios. Simple emission and climate models, based on the input-output relations of linear systems, capture the fundamental emission to climate impact behavior by careful selection of key variables and their dynamics. The impact of various greenhouse gases depends on the total concentration, effect per unit change in atmospheric concentration and the spatial distribution of the gas. All these quantities are influenced by the lifetime of the gas. The impact of a greenhouse gas depends on the interval of assessment, which may vary from a few decades to a few centuries. Climate metrics are aimed at providing a common scale to compare different greenhouse gases. If the metrics are to be used as a tool in developing and evaluating aviation operations, they should be transparent and easy to apply. Global Warming Potential and Aggregate Global Temperature Potential are some of the commonly used metrics. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability brings together metrics, which are useful in aviation operations together with metrics used in climate studies. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in climate impact. There is considerable uncertainty in our understanding of the radiative forcing associated with emissions and contrails. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails. It can also be used to evaluate the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

impact of aviation on the environment↗

DOE OSTI2024

EMRALD Technology Advancements for Commercial Grade Dedication Readiness

Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) is a software tool developed at Idaho National Laboratory for researching the capabilities of dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It provides a simple interface to represent complex interactions often seen when developing dynamic models. EMRALD can also interface with other applications by modifying inputs as well as running and using their results within EMRALD for dynamic and integrated assessment. To enable wider industry use cases, collaborative work between Idaho National Laboratory and FPoliSolutions was performed through the technology commercialization fund TCF-20-21448. This report covers the additional features and capabilities developed under this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bioenergy and Climate Change in Ukraine: How climate can impact the sustainability of bioenergy production

The Russian invasion has exacerbated Ukraine’s energy security issues, prompting a shift toward diversifying energy supply sources. Additionally, strategic documents aim to align Ukraine’s energy system with EU climate requirements, focusing on reducing reliance on fossil fuels and advancing decarbonization efforts. This report focuses on the expansion of bioenergy as an alternative source of energy in Ukraine. Current assessments suggest that Ukraine has substantial bioenergy potential, primarily from agricultural residues and energy crops. However, the challenges posed by climate change and the ongoing war might impact the outcome of these projections. This report highlights the importance of integrating climate factors into energy modeling using tools like the integrated assessment models to provide a comprehensive understanding of Ukraine’s bioenergy potential under various climate scenarios. It also emphasizes the need for climate-smart agriculture and forestry practices to mitigate risks, enhance energy efficiency, and support resilient crop supplies. Recommendations for stakeholders include diversification of the energy supply sources, developing adaptation strategies, diversifying bioenergy feedstocks, and ensuring robust decision-making to navigate the impacts of climate change on Ukraine’s energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Health Analysis and Research for Public Events (HARPE) Tool (Final CRADA Report)

Based on its experience in building assessment tools, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) has demonstrated expertise in developing comparative methodologies and question sets that provide both a physical and cyber-based risk assessment for the commercial facilities sector. A high-level risk assessment tool can be beneficial for venues and organizations that fall under a wide array of facility characterizations, ultimately accommodating the evolving landscape of threats specific to these facilities. The Health Analysis and Research for Public Events (HARPE) Tool is an assessment that seeks to help facility managers assess and mitigate aspects of safety, security, and emergency management within their venues. With the pandemic featuring prominently in today’s landscape, we have adapted and extended the scope of the HARPE tool so that it offers users the ability to integrate assessments of their preparation for, response to, and recovery from threats faced at the venue arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditional threats and hazards remain prevalent in today’s landscape, and the best defense is a proactive approach to preventing and mitigating these threats. At the very core of prevention and mitigation is the first step of conducting a risk assessment—this is the gap that HARPE fills. While it is obvious that the response to COVID-19 is health and sanitation driven, leaders within the commercial facilities sector must also know where to best extend their efforts in mitigating future threats arising from the pandemic. Public events and mass gatherings are directly impacted by COVID-19; however, with the help of HARPE, leaders can focus their attention on core impact areas related to the safety and security of returning to a new normal, as they assess their risks using the Argonne-developed tool. HARPE provides an important solution to the COVID-19 situation by assisting venue managers and health officials in identifying their risks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Understanding Risk Tolerance and Building an Effective Safety Culture

Estimates range from 65-90 percent of catastrophic mishaps are due to human error. NASA's human factors-related mishaps causes are estimated at approximately 75 percent. As much as we'd like to error-proof our work environment, even the most automated and complex technical endeavors require human interaction... and are vulnerable to human frailty. Industry and government are focusing not only on human factors integration into hazardous work environments, but also looking for practical approaches to cultivating a strong Safety Culture that diminishes risk. Industry and government organizations have recognized the value of monitoring leading indicators to identify potential risk vulnerabilities. NASA has adapted this approach to assess risk controls associated with hazardous, critical, and complex facilities. NASA's facility risk assessments integrate commercial loss control, OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) Process Safety, API (American Petroleum Institute) Performance Indicator Standard, and NASA Operational Readiness Inspection concepts to identify risk control vulnerabilities.

Loyd, David↗

DOE OSTI2026

Climate impacts in scenarios: time to close the loop?

Reaching a full understanding of the consequences of climate change for society and ecosystems, and the ensuing needs for adaptation, requires a consideration of the interactions between human and Earth systems. Currently, however, climate research largely separates the influence of society on climate from the influence of climate on society; that is, it doesn’t “close the loop.” A primary example of this approach is the generation and use of earth system model (ESM) simulations in the climate change research community. Large-scale socio-economic models, known as integrated assessment models (IAMs), are used to project emissions and land use change which serve as input to ESMs. ESM projections then serve as input to models of impacts on society and ecosystems. But, according to this modeling chain, those impacts do not affect the emissions and land use that drove the ESMs in the first place. Previous work has not drawn firm conclusions on whether this feedback would be large enough to warrant explicitly accounting for it. Two prominent possibilities, however, are that emissions and land use scenarios representing the high and low ends of the plausible range of future climate change are both too extreme. The high-end scenario may miss damaging impacts that would reduce economic activity, and therefore emissions, while the low-end scenario may ignore climate feedbacks that would make large-scale land-based carbon removal ineffective and therefore would hamper mitigation at the level assumed by the scenario. In this piece, we identify the opportunities and challenges that implementing such feedback loops would face. We argue that recent developments in climate impact research, human system modeling and ESM emulation make the time ripe to use IAMs in a structured model intercomparison exercise. Model intercomparison projects have benefitted the climate modeling community for decade snow, and more recently have also benefitted the impact modeling community. An IAM intercomparison focused on integrating impacts could make large strides in testing the implications of these feedbacks and assessing whether closing the loop would fundamentally change our outlook on future climate changes and their consequences.

Tebaldi, Claudia↗

NASA NTRS1995

Seasonal variability of light availability and utilization in the Sargasso Sea

A 2 year time series of optical, biogeochemical, and physical parameters, taken near the island of Bermuda, is used to evaluate the sources of temporal variability in light avaliability and utilization in the Sargasso Sea. Integrated assessments of light availability are made by examining the depth of constant percent incident photosynthetically available radiation (% PAR) isolumes. To first order, changes in the depth %PAR isolumes were caused by physical processes: deep convection mixing in the winter which led to the spring bloom and concurrent shallowing of %PAR depths and the occurrence of anomalous thermohaline water masses during the summer and fall seasons. Spectral light availability variations are assessed using determinations of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectra which illustrates a significant seasonal cycle in colored detrital particulate and/or dissolved materials that is unrelated to changes in chlorophyll pigment concentrations. Temporal variations in the photosynthetic light utilization index Psi are used to assess vertically intergrated light utilization variations. Values of Psi are highly variable and show no apparent seasonal pattern which indicates that Psi is not simply a 'biogeochemical constant.' Determinations of in situ primary production rates and daily mean PAR fluxes are used to diagnose the relative role of light limitation in determining vertically integrated rates of primary production integral PP. The mean depth of the light-saturated zone (the vertical region where the daily mean PAR flux was greater than or equal to the saturation irradiance) is only approximately 40 m, although more than one half of interal PP occurred within this zone. Production model results illustrate that accurate predictions of integral PP are dependent upon rates of light-saturated production rather than upon indices of light limitation. It seems unlikely that significant improvements in simple primary production models will come from the partitioning of the Earth's seas into biogeochemical provinces.

Siegel, David A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep mitigation of CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO 2 and non-CO 2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO 2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO 2 and non-CO 2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO 2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO 2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO 2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO 2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO 2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO 2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO 2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition

Saudi Arabia's ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity to diversify away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that guide the Kingdom from a fossil fuel-based economy toward carbon neutrality. This study uses GCAM-KSA, a multi-sectoral integrated assessment model tailored to Saudi Arabia's economic and energy systems, to evaluate the impact of early energy transition initiatives on the policy costs of achieving the Kingdom's net-zero target. These initiatives include ongoing and proposed energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment, and fuel displacement targets. The study highlights that early implementation of these initiatives can significantly reduce barriers to adopting low-carbon technologies, ultimately lowering the economic burden of achieving the net-zero goal. Compared to a delayed implementation scenario, early action reduces long-term policy costs by 38–72% over the period from 2025 to 2060, driven by accelerated energy system transformation. These findings provide valuable insights into how Saudi Arabia's energy policies can mitigate economic challenges, promote economic diversification, and contribute to global emission reductions, reinforcing the Kingdom's transition to a sustainable net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry/breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity’s four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity's four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Global methane emissions from coal mining to continue growing even with declining coal production

This paper presents projections of global methane emissions from coal mining under different coal extraction scenarios and with increasing mining depth through 2100. The paper proposes an updated methodology for calculating fugitive emissions from coal mining, which accounts for coal extraction method, coal rank, and mining depth and uses evidence-based emissions factors. A detailed assessment shows that coal mining-related methane emissions in 2010 were higher than previous studies show. This study also uses a novel methodology for calculating methane emissions from abandoned coal mines and represents the first estimate of future global methane emissions from those mines. The results show that emissions from abandoned mines increase faster than those from active ones. Using coal production data from six integrated assessment models, this study shows that by 2100 methane emissions from active underground mines increase by a factor of 4, while emissions from abandoned mines increase by a factor of 8. Abandoned mine methane emissions continue through the century even with aggressive mitigation actions.

coal mine methane, abandoned coal mine methane, em↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)

Today, the FAA is fully engaged in the development and deployment of TBO for the NAS. To realize TBO, the FAA and NAS user community recognize the importance of systems-of-systems thinking and of greater integration across systems, programs, teams, and between research and the field. The ATD-1 Operational Integration Assessment (OIA), helped blaze the trail for this important transition while moving TBFM Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) down the path to deployment. Only a few years later, a comprehensive flight test of Flight Deck Interval Management (FIM) capabilities was executed, complementary and interoperable with traffic flow capabilities that were then emerging for TBO. Together, the ATD-1 tech transfers helped pave the way for the highly integrated systems-of-systems development and acquisition being undertaken for TBO. This session will chart that path to where we are today, and where we are going in the future.

ATD-1, TSAS, FIM, trajectory based operations↗

NASA NTRS1993

NDE of titanium alloy MMC rings for gas turbine engines

Progress in the processing and fabrication of metal matrix composites (MMC's) requires appropriate mechanical and nondestructive testing methods. These methods are needed to characterize properties, assess integrity, and predict the life of engine components such as compressor rotors, blades, and vanes. Capabilities and limitations of several state-of-the-art nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technologies are investigated for characterizing titanium MMC rings for gas turbine engines. The use of NDE technologies such as x-ray computed tomography, radiography, and ultrasonics in identifying fabrication-related problems that caused defects in components is examined. Acousto-ultrasonics was explored to assess degradation of material mechanical properties by using stress wave factor and ultrasonic velocity measurements before and after the burst testing of the rings.

Baaklini, George Y.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of Delivery Accuracy in an Operational-Like Environment

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) environment, ground-based sequencing and scheduling functions were developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling tools are designed to assist air traffic controllers in developing an overall arrival strategy, from enroute down to the terminal area boundary. NASA developed a ground system concept and protoype capability called Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) to extend metering operations into the terminal area to the runway. To demonstrate the use of these scheduling and spacing tools in an operational-like environment, the FAA, NASA, and MITRE conducted an Operational Integration Assessment (OIA) of a prototype TSAS system at the FAA's William J. Hughes Technical Center (WJHTC). This paper presents an analysis of the arrival management strategies utilized and delivery accuracy achieved during the OIA. The analysis demonstrates how en route preconditioning, in various forms, and schedule disruptions impact delivery accuracy. As the simulation spanned both enroute and terminal airspace, the use of Ground Interval Management - Spacing (GIM-S) enroute speed advisories was investigated. Delivery accuracy was measured as the difference between the Scheduled Time of Arrival (STA) and the Actual Time of Arrival (ATA). The delivery accuracy was computed across all runs conducted during the OIA, which included deviations from nominal operations which are known to commonly occur in real operations, such as schedule changes and missed approaches. Overall, 83% of all flights were delivered into the terminal airspace within +/- 30 seconds of their STA and 94% of flights were delivered within +/- 60 seconds. The meter fix delivery accuracy standard deviation was found to be between 36 and 55 seconds across all arrival procedures. The data also showed when schedule disruptions were excluded, the percentage of aircraft delivered within +/- 30 seconds was between 85 and 90% across the various arrival procedures at the meter fix. This paper illustrates the ability to meet new delivery accuracy requirements in an operational-like environment using operational systems and NATCA controller participants, while also including common events that might cause disruptions to the schedule and overall system.

Air Traffic Scheduling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr. –1 , emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC’s vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗