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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization and controllability of radiated power via extrinsic impurity seeding in strongly negative triangularity plasmas in DIII-D

Experiments with extrinsic impurity seeding in strongly negative triangularity shapes in DIII-D achieved radiated power fractions (relative to input power) of up to ≈85% total radiation and ≈55% core radiation in steady-operating conditions. The relationship between core and total radiation was sensitive to impurity species and input power. Attempts to reach higher radiation levels via higher impurity flows resulted in radiative collapse disruptions. Nitrogen, neon, argon, and krypton were tested. Injection was by gas puffing, usually controlled by feeding back real-time estimates for core or total radiating fractions ($P_\textrm{rad} / P_\textrm{input}$). Argon and krypton were controlled by feeding back total radiating fraction, whereas neon was controlled by feeding back the core radiating fraction, due to the lower efficiency of neon as a divertor radiator. Nitrogen flows were pre-programmed. Reasonable total $P_\textrm{rad}$ control target following was achieved with argon or krypton. Control was more challenging with the neon/core radiation configuration, which was more prone to slow response and overshooting of the control target. Poor particle removal contributed to the control challenge: neon particle inventory within the last closed flux surface was roughly constant for up to 1 s (the longest duration tested) after neon injection was halted. However, separate experiments with laser-blow off of non-recycling impurities measured a short impurity confinement time, on the scale of the energy confinement time of ∼100 ms. Modeling with the Aurora impurity transport simulation matched experimental neon density profiles with full recycling (R = 1.0) and weak pumping but predicted rapid decreases in neon inventory if pumping were increased or recycling decreased. This indicates that changes outside the confined plasma (adding a well-placed pump) would improve controllability for all highly recycling species.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian Process Emulators for Volcanic Ash Dispersion Model Tephra2

It is necessary to predict volcanic ash deposition since falling ash is harmful to human activities. Because simulators built for this purpose are computationally expensive, it is popular to use statistical emulators for geophysical hazard analyses, where a large number of simulations are required. Gaussian stochastic process emulators are able to approximate expensive simulations in an accurate and efficient way. Using a relatively small number of simulation runs, a well-trained emulator can accurately predict simulation outputs at massive new input points in a few seconds. Under different explosive eruption conditions, we constructed Gaussian stochastic process emulators for Tephra2, a simulation tool for estimating the accumulation of volcanic ash over a region. Historical wind records are used as input wind data, without assuming a Gaussian wind speed profile or common wind direction among elevations. While there are several inputs for Tephra2, we use no more than three physically motivated variables as emulator inputs to reduce the computational cost of emulations. The emulator outputs predict the mass of tephra per unit area at 50281 grid points around a predetermined vent location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

eFESTA: Ensemble Feature Exploration with Surface Density Estimates

We propose surface density estimate (SDE) to model the spatial distribution of surface features-isosurfaces, ridge surfaces, and streamsurfaces-in 3D ensemble simulation data. The inputs of SDE computation are surface features represented as polygon meshes, and no field datasets are required (e.g., scalar fields or vector fields). The SDE is defined as the kernel density estimate of the infinite set of points on the input surfaces and is approximated by accumulating the surface densities of triangular patches. We also propose an algorithm to guide the selection of a proper kernel bandwidth for SDE computation. An ensemble Feature Exploration method based on Surface densiTy EstimAtes (eFESTA) is then proposed to extract and visualize the major trends of ensemble surface features. For an ensemble of surface features, each surface is first transformed into a density field based on its contribution to the SDE, and the resulting density fields are organized into a hierarchical representation based on the pairwise distances between them. The hierarchical representation is then used to guide visual exploration of the density fields as well as the underlying surface features. We demonstrate the application of our method using isosurface in ensemble scalar fields, Lagrangian coherent structures in uncertain unsteady flows, and streamsurfaces in ensemble fluid flows.

Computational modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy Budget of Brittle Fracturing in Granite Under Stress Relaxation and Creep

Creep and relaxation are the two major time-dependent fracturing processes in rocks. While a considerable amount of research has been done in understanding these two mechanisms, critical gaps remain regarding how different energy components evolve during time-dependent fracturing processes in rocks. In this study, a series of relaxation and creep experiments were conducted on prismatic Barre granite specimens in the laboratory to estimate the energy budget of brittle fracturing in granite. For the input energy, the work done by the machine (W) is calculated and for the output energy the radiated seismic energy (E R ), released in the form of acoustic emissions (AEs), is calculated as the only measurable output energy component in the conducted experiments. The low-frequency plateau (Ω 0 ) and corner frequency (f 0 ) for each AE waveform was estimated by fitting the observed AE spectra with the theoretical spectra using the Omega model. These parameters were used to estimate the seismic moments (M 0 ) based on the radiation pattern for the double couple (shear) and non-double-couple (non-shear) events. The range of f 0 and M 0 varied from 150 to 750 kHz and 10 –4 to 10 –1 N m, respectively. Moment magnitude (M w ) varied in a wider range from –9 to –6 in creep and –8.5 to –7 in relaxation. Stress drops (Δ σ ) and source radius (r) were estimated for the AEs using Brune’s model. Here, the results report on three primary observations: (1) the effects of different source mechanisms on the estimated source parameters showed that M 0 and Δ σ were higher for DC events as compared to NDC in both relaxation and creep. (2) The radiation efficiency in the case of creep is 70% higher as compared to relaxation and, (3) the stress drop estimated in relaxation and creep demonstrated a breakdown in scaling with the seismic moment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Assessment of Homogeneous Mixture Method Cavitation Models in Predicting Cavitation in Nozzle Flow

The homogeneous mixture method (HMM) is a popular class of models used in the computational prediction of cavitation. Several cavitation models have been developed for use with HMM to govern the development and destruction of vapor in a fluid system. Two models credited to Kunz and Schnerr–Sauer are studied in this paper. The goal of this work is to provide an assessment of the two cavitation submodels in their ability to predict cavitation in nozzle flow. Validation data were obtained via experiments which employ both passive cavitation detection, (PCD) via acoustic sensing and optical cavitation detection (OCD) via camera imaging. The experiments provide quantitative information on cavitation inception and qualitative information on the vapor in the nozzle. The results show that initial vapor formation is not predicted precisely but within reason. A sensitivity analysis of the models to input parameters shows that the Schnerr–Sauer method does not depend upon the estimation of nuclei size and number density. Small changes in the vapor formation rate but not the total vapor volume can be seen when weighting parameters are modified. In contrast, changes to the input parameters for the Kunz model greatly change the final total vapor volume prediction. The assessment also highlights the influence of vapor convection within the method. Finally, the analysis shows that if the fluid and nozzle walls do not support nuclei larger than 40 μm, the methods would still predict cavitation when indeed there would be none in practice.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

NANT Site - ASSIST / Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous radiances observed with an Atmospheric Sounder Spectrometer by Infrared Spectral Technology (ASSIST, Rochette et al. 2009) operated by NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory on Nantucket Island for WFIP3. The spectral bands used in the retrieval are in the wavenumber range from 612 - 905.4 cm-1 and are specified in Turner and Löhnert (2021). Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a collocated ceilometer operated by NOAA GML and temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and pressure from a sensor attached to the ASSIST housing. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Decarbonization Potential of Global Fired Clay Brick Production

Fired clay bricks (FCBs) are a dominant building material globally due to their low cost and simplicity of production, especially in low- and middle-income countries. With a projected rising housing demand, commensurate growth in brick demand is anticipated, the production of which could result in significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Robust models are needed to estimate brick demand and emissions to systematically address decarbonization pathways. Few sources report production values; hence, we present two novel proxy models: (i) a consumption prediction model, relying on country-specific clay extraction data, dynamic building stock modeling, and average material intensity use allowing for projections to 2050; and (ii) a GHG emissions model, using literature-based data and production technology-specific inputs. Based on these models, the current global FCB consumption is estimated as 2.18 Gt annually, resulting in approximately 500 million tCO2e (1% of current global GHG emissions). If unaddressed, this fraction could increase to 3.5-5% in 2050 considering a moderate SSP 2-4.5 climate change mitigation scenario. Consequently, we explored three potential decarbonization pathways: (i) improving energy efficiency; (ii) shifting production to best practices; and (iii) replacing half of FCB demand with hollow concrete blocks, resulting in 27%, 49%, and 51% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively.

Olsson, Josefine A↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model predictive combustion control of a Gasoline Compression Ignition engine

Gasoline Compression Ignition is a novel combustion concept that derives its superiority from the high compression ratio of a compression ignition engine as well as the properties of gasoline fuel, such as longer ignition delay and higher volatility compared to diesel. Here, this combustion concept was experimentally tested on a 12.4L Class 8 truck engine. Based on these experimental data, prior efforts by the authors focused on the development of an engine model for a heavy-duty engine operating on a low-reactivity fuel. This engine model was leveraged within this study to investigate a combustion control strategy at different engine conditions and injection methods and was augmented to incorporate cycle-to-cycle combustion variations. State estimation is performed by means of a Kalman filter which feeds into a model predictive controller. The model predictive controller chooses control actions based on a predefined cost function under consideration of bounds reflecting physical constraints. The engine model was utilized to establish a state-space model that serves the Kalman filter and model predictive controller for estimation and prediction. A comparative study investigating control actions and engine behavior was performed with and without limiting in-cylinder peak pressure as well as combustion noise, which is of particular interest for early pilot injection strategies. In addition, the proposed control architecture was investigated at two different levels of cycle-to-cycle variations and compared to the performance of a control structure with input disturbance rejection. For increased cycle-to-cycle variations, disturbance estimation reduces state fluctuations and control effort. In general, this investigation highlights control aspects specific to a compression-ignited combustion regime with low-reactivity fuel. The control algorithm is able to maintain the desired references for brake mean effective pressure and combustion phasing while controlling peak in-cylinder pressure and combustion noise.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hamiltonian learning using machine-learning models trained with continuous measurements

Here, we build upon recent work on the use of machine-learning models to estimate Hamiltonian parameters using continuous weak measurement of qubits as input. We consider two settings for the training of our model: (1) supervised learning, where the weak-measurement training record can be labeled with known Hamiltonian parameters, and (2) unsupervised learning, where no labels are available. The first has the advantage of not requiring an explicit representation of the quantum state, thus potentially scaling very favorably to a larger number of qubits. The second requires the implementation of a physical model to map the Hamiltonian parameters to a measurement record, which we implement using an integrator of the physical model with a recurrent neural network to provide a model-free correction at every time step to account for small effects not captured by the physical model. We test our construction on a system of two qubits and demonstrate accurate prediction of multiple physical parameters in both the supervised context and the unsupervised context. We demonstrate that the model benefits from larger training sets, establishing that it is “learning,” and we show robustness regarding errors in the assumed physical model by achieving accurate parameter estimation in the presence of unanticipated single-particle relaxation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictability of Seawater DMS During the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES)

This work presents an overview of a unique set of surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) measurements from four shipboard field campaigns conducted during the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES) project. Variations in surface seawater DMS are discussed in relation to biological and physical observations. Results are considered at a range of timescales (seasons to days) and spatial scales (regional to sub-mesoscale). Elevated DMS concentrations are generally associated with greater biological productivity, although chlorophyll a (Chl) only explains a small fraction of the DMS variability (15%). Physical factors that determine the location of oceanic temperature fronts and depth of vertical mixing have an important influence on seawater DMS concentrations during all seasons. The interplay of biomass and physics influences DMS concentrations at regional/seasonal scales and at smaller spatial and shorter temporal scales. Seawater DMS measurements are compared with the global seawater DMS climatology and predictions made using a recently published algorithm and by a neural network model. The climatology is successful at capturing the seasonal progression in average seawater DMS, but does not reproduce the shorter spatial/temporal scale variability. The input terms common to the algorithm and neural network approaches are biological (Chl) and physical (mixed layer depth, photosynthetically active radiation, seawater temperature). Both models predict the seasonal North Atlantic average seawater DMS trends better than the climatology. However, DMS concentrations tend to be under-predicted and the episodic occurrence of higher DMS concentrations is poorly predicted. The choice of climatological seawater DMS product makes a substantial impact on the estimated DMS flux into the North Atlantic atmosphere. These results suggest that additional input terms are needed to improve the predictive capability of current state-of-the-art approaches to estimating seawater DMS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

BLOC Site - ASSIST Thermodynamic Retrievals TROPoe v0.18 / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). This is a post-processed dataset and recommended for use. The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous radiances observed with an Atmospheric Sounder Spectrometer by Infrared Spectral Technology (ASSIST, Michaud-Belleau et al. 2025) operated by NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) on Block Island for WFIP3. The spectral bands used in the retrieval are in the wavenumber range from 612 - 905.4 cm-1 and are specified in Turner and Löhnert (2021). Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a collocated ceilometer operated by NOAA GML and temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and pressure from a collocated surface tower operated by NOAA PSL. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY. The TROPoe docker container (version 0.18) is available from Docker Hub at https://hub.docker.com/r/davidturner53/tropoe/tags, and the source code code is available in the GitHub repository https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/TROPoe.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

NANT Site - ASSIST Thermodynamic Retrievals TROPoe v0.18 / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). This is a post-processed dataset and recommended for use. The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous radiances observed with an Atmospheric Sounder Spectrometer by Infrared Spectral Technology (ASSIST, Michaud-Belleau et al. 2025) operated by NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) on Nantucket Island for WFIP3. The spectral bands used in the retrieval are in the wavenumber range from 612 - 905.4 cm-1 and are specified in Turner and Löhnert (2021). Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a collocated ceilometer operated by NOAA GML and temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and pressure from a collocated surface tower operated by NOAA PSL. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY. The TROPoe docker container (version 0.18) is available from Docker Hub at https://hub.docker.com/r/davidturner53/tropoe/tags, and the source code code is available in the GitHub repository https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/TROPoe.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

BLOC Site - ASSIST Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous radiances observed with an Atmospheric Sounder Spectrometer by Infrared Spectral Technology (ASSIST, Rochette et al. 2009) operated by NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory on Block Island for WFIP3. The spectral bands used in the retrieval are in the wavenumber range from 612 - 905.4 cm-1 and are specified in Turner and Löhnert (2021). Radiances are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a collocated ceilometer operated by NOAA GML and temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and pressure from a sensor attached to the ASSIST housing. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2024

Managing negative values is reservoir inflow computation: A case study

Reservoir inflow is conventionally estimated using the water balance method, which involves the reservoir release and the change in storage during the period considered. As a result, the estimated inflow may sometimes be negative as the errors involved in each input variable build-up to the output. In our study, the fleet data was provided by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for their Norris Hydropower facility. Unlike the flow release data, which was readily accessible, the change in storage had to be calculated using the reservoir elevation and volume relationship. The original inflow estimates produced a wide range of negative values with large outliers, making it difficult to visualize the current trends. This paper describes a methodology to remove the negative values encountered during the inflow computation, and the results were analyzed by correlating with the nearby streamflow gaging stations.

Shibu, Asha↗
DOE OSTI2021

Daily grass reference evapotranspiration with Meteosat Second Generation shortwave radiation and reference ET products

Here we assess the accuracy of estimating daily grass reference evapotranspiration (PM-ET o ) using daily shortwave radiation (R s ) and reference evapotranspiration (ET REF ) products provided by the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite delivered by the Satellite Applications Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) framework. The accuracy of using reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data (R s ERA5 ) provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also evaluated. The assessments were performed using observed weather variables at 37 weather stations distributed across continental Portugal, where climate conditions range from semi-arid to humid, and 12 weather stations located in Azores islands, characterized by humid, windy and often cloudy conditions. This study&#x27;s use of data from a variety of climate conditions contributed to a unique and innovative assessment of the usability of LSA-SAF and ERA5 products for ET o estimation. The first assessment focused on comparing LSA-SAF estimates of R s (R s LSA-SAF ) against ground stations (R s ground ). The results showed a good matching between the two R s data sets for continental Portugal but a tendency for R s LSA-SAF to under-estimate R s ground in the cloudy islands of Azores. ET o values computed using R s LSA-SAF data and observed temperature, humidity and wind speed (ET o LSA-SAF ) were then compared with PM-ET o estimates with ground-based data, which were used as benchmark; input data of temperature and humidity needed for PM-ET o were quality checked for surface aridity effects. It was observed that ET o LSA-SAF is strongly correlated with PM-ET o (R 2 > 0.97) for most locations in continental Portugal, with regression coefficient of a linear regression forced to the origin ranging between 0.95 and 1.05, mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 mm d –1 , and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of modeling (EF) above 0.95. For most Azores locations, ET o LSA-SAF over-estimated PM-ET o . This is likely a consequence of the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of weather conditions that occur in these oceanic islands together with the different footprints of satellite (averaged over the pixel) and station observations. Reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data presented similar behavior to the LSA-SAF products, however with slightly lower accuracy. The daily LSA-SAF ET REF product (ET REF LSA-SAF ) was assessed and results have shown a good accuracy of this product, with acceptable RMSE and high EF values, for continental Portugal but a low accuracy for the Azores islands. A simplified bias correction approach was shown to improve both ET o derived from the LSA-SAF products, namely for Azores stations, which seem to be representative of smaller areas. The use of the FAO-PM temperature approach (PMT) was also assessed using the R s LSA-SAF and R s ERA5 data, which showed a superiority of the LSA-SAF product for ET o estimations (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ). No significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in terms of the median value of the RMSE when adopting ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Differently, results showed that using the R s LSA-SAF in the PMT approach (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ) produces significantly better RMSE results than ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Overall, the performed assessment allows concluding that the use of R s LSA-SAF, and to a lesser extent the use of the R s ERA5 , highly improves the accuracy of computation of ET o when R s observations are not available, including when only temperature data are accessible. The use of the ET REF LSA-SAF product is a good alternative when observed weather data are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗