Results for “input estimation” — Page 14

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2023

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) aims to accelerate the advancement and deployment of solar technology in support of an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy no later than 2050, starting with a decarbonized power sector by 2035. Its approach to achieving this goal includes driving innovations in technology, hardware, and soft cost reductions to make solar affordable and accessible for all. As part of this effort, SETO must track solar cost trends so it can focus its research and development (R&D) on the highest-impact activities. The benchmarks in this report are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations. Bottom-up costs are based on national averages and do not necessarily represent typical costs in all local markets. Like last year's report, this year's report includes two distinct sets of benchmarks: minimum sustainable price (MSP) benchmarks and modeled market price (MMP) benchmarks. MSP benchmarks can be interpreted as the minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent in the long term based on the minimum sustainable prices of all inputs including minimum sustainable profit margins. MMP benchmarks can be interpreted as the actual cash sales price a company charges in the given benchmark period. These simplified estimates are useful for tracking technological progress, but they do not reflect all experiences. In fact, no individual estimate under any approach can reflect the diversity of the PV and storage manufacturing and installation industries. Our residential MMP benchmark ($2.90 per watt direct current [Wdc]) is 24% higher than the MSP benchmark ($2.34/Wdc) and 9% lower than our MMP benchmark ($3.18/Wdc) from Q1 2022 in 2022 U.S. dollars (USD). For community solar, our MMP benchmark ($1.75/Wdc) is 18% higher than our MSP benchmark ($1.49/Wdc). Our Q1 2022 benchmark report has no community solar system for comparison. For utility-scale systems with one-axis tracking, our MMP benchmark ($1.17/Wdc) is 22% higher than our MSP benchmark ($0.96/Wdc) and 10% higher than its counterpart ($1.07/Wdc) in Q1 2022 in 2022 USD.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Q1 2023 U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis Data File

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) aims to accelerate the advancement and deployment of solar technology in support of an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy no later than 2050, starting with a decarbonized power sector by 2035. Its approach to achieving this goal includes driving innovations in technology, hardware, and soft cost reductions to make solar affordable and accessible for all. As part of this effort, SETO must track solar cost trends so it can focus its research and development (R&D) on the highest-impact activities. The benchmarks in this report are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations. Bottom-up costs are based on national averages and do not necessarily represent typical costs in all local markets. Like last year's report, this year's report includes two distinct sets of benchmarks: minimum sustainable price (MSP) benchmarks and modeled market price (MMP) benchmarks. MSP benchmarks can be interpreted as the minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent in the long term based on the minimum sustainable prices of all inputs including minimum sustainable profit margins. MMP benchmarks can be interpreted as the actual cash sales price a company charges in the given benchmark period. These simplified estimates are useful for tracking technological progress, but they do not reflect all experiences. In fact, no individual estimate under any approach can reflect the diversity of the PV and storage manufacturing and installation industries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1986

Flight control synthesis for flexible aircraft using Eigenspace assignment

The use of eigenspace assignment techniques to synthesize flight control systems for flexible aircraft is explored. Eigenspace assignment techniques are used to achieve a specified desired eigenspace, chosen to yield desirable system impulse residue magnitudes for selected system responses. Two of these are investigated. The first directly determines constant measurement feedback gains that will yield a close-loop system eigenspace close to a desired eigenspace. The second technique selects quadratic weighting matrices in a linear quadratic control synthesis that will asymptotically yield the close-loop achievable eigenspace. Finally, the possibility of using either of these techniques with state estimation is explored. Application of the methods to synthesize integrated flight-control and structural-mode-control laws for a large flexible aircraft is demonstrated and results discussed. Eigenspace selection criteria based on design goals are discussed, and for the study case it would appear that a desirable eigenspace can be obtained. In addition, the importance of state-space selection is noted along with problems with reduced-order measurement feedback. Since the full-state control laws may be implemented with dynamic compensation (state estimation), the use of reduced-order measurement feedback is less desirable. This is especially true since no change in the transient response from the pilot's input results if state estimation is used appropriately. The potential is also noted for high actuator bandwidth requirements if the linear quadratic synthesis approach is utilized. Even with the actuator pole location selected, a problem with unmodeled modes is noted due to high bandwidth. Some suggestions for future research include investigating how to choose an eigenspace that will achieve certain desired dynamics and stability robustness, determining how the choice of measurements effects synthesis results, and exploring how the phase relationships between desired eigenvector elements effects the synthesis results.

Davidson, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Combined Error and Uncertainty Estimates for CFD Problems

Given input sources of uncertainty, non-intrusive uncertainty propagation methods quantify the uncertainty in output quantities of interest (QoI) by performing a nite number of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) instance realizations needed in the calculation of output statistics. It is well known that this introduces multiple sources of error. CFD codes often utilize finite-dimensional approximation (grids, basis functions, etc.) thus incurring CFD numerical errors often approximately reinterpreted as a statistical bias. Uncertainty propagation methods calculate uncertainty statistics for output quantities of interest using a numerical method (e.g. deterministic quadrature, sampling, etc.) thus incurring UQ (Uncertainty Quantification) numerical errors. Importance of quantifying these errors in large scale scientific computing: How accurate is an output statistic?; How should additional computational resources be invested to further reduce the error in a statistic?

Posteriori↗

NASA NTRS2013

Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

Plumer, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1989

Estimating biogeochemical fluxes across sagebrush-steppe landscapes with Thematic Mapper imagery

Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite data were coupled to an ecosystem simulation model to simulate variation in nitrogen mineralization over time and space in a sagebrush steppe. This system of data inputs and calculations provides estimates of ecosystem properties including rates of biogeochemical processes over extensive and complex landscapes, and under changing management and climatic conditions. The landscape surface was divided into three sagebrush ecosystem types plus one other class consisting of nonsagebrush vegetation. This classification presented a complex mosaic of ecosystem types that shifted markedly in composition from one end of the 933-sq km study area to the other. Annual N-mineralization rates ranged from 5 to 25 kg N/ha among the three sagebrush types. The most active type comprised 42 percent of the entire area but contributed 60 percent to the nitrogen mineralization throughout the landscape.

Reiners, W. A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Purpose, Design, and Analysis of the NSTX-U Centerstack Casing Lateral Support Shims

The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) centerstack casing surrounds the central magnet core of NSTXU. It provides the inner vacuum boundary of the plasma chamber and supports the radially inboard plasma facing components lining the plasma chamber. The casing is supported like a cantilever, fixed at the lower flange by a connection to the TF Bundle through a G-10 ring. It is flexibly supported at the top by bellows, and insulated shims intended to react the largest part of the inventory of the disruption loads at the upper support, thereby protecting the upper and lower connections from excessive loads. A large part of the qualification of the casing and tiles requires addressing and quantifying disruption loads. These have been estimated based on extensions of the behavior of NSTX during its run period roughly 15 years ago. Structural qualification of the Upgrade used these estimates of the loading as input to calculations to demonstrate adequacy for a “most probable” disruption. The estimates are included in a requirements document to guide conservative design of all components loaded by disruptions. However, the changes made for the upgrade made the extrapolation of disruption behavior uncertain. Disruptions include axisymmetric loading from axisymmetric currents induced in the vessel shells. In addition, more complex currents called Halo currents are a result of plasma poloidal currents impinging on the casing. The halo currents add another layer of uncertain behavior and net lateral loading to the casing. As a result, NSTX-U is equipped with a number of instruments intended to assess the nature and severity of disruptions. The casing shims are required for lateral support of the casing, but these have also been converted to load cells to provide another measure of the magnitude of symmetric and asymmetric loading. Some of the logic in the development of the requirements document are presented. Electromagnetic analysis of axisymmetric and halo loading is described. Global simulations of the casing transient dynamic response, and local analysis and testing of the shim/load cell are included. The shim load cells and other instrumentation will be an important guide in planning NSTX-U experiments beyond its next run period expected in late 2026 or early 2027.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2002

Software for Estimating Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

A high-level parametric mathematical model for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center has been implemented as a Microsoft Excel program that generates multiple spreadsheets. The model and the program are both denoted, simply, the Cost Estimating Model (CEM). The inputs to the CEM are the parameters that describe particular tests, including test types (component or engine test), numbers and duration of tests, thrust levels, and other parameters. The CEM estimates anticipated total project costs for a specific test. Estimates are broken down into testing categories based on a work-breakdown structure and a cost-element structure. A notable historical assumption incorporated into the CEM is that total labor times depend mainly on thrust levels. As a result of a recent modification of the CEM to increase the accuracy of predicted labor times, the dependence of labor time on thrust level is now embodied in third- and fourth-order polynomials.

Hines, Merion M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Software for Estimating Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

A high-level parametric mathematical model for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center has been implemented as a Microsoft Excel program that generates multiple spreadsheets. The model and the program are both denoted, simply, the Cost Estimating Model (CEM). The inputs to the CEM are the parameters that describe particular tests, including test types (component or engine test), numbers and duration of tests, thrust levels, and other parameters. The CEM estimates anticipated total project costs for a specific test. Estimates are broken down into testing categories based on a work-breakdown structure and a cost-element structure. A notable historical assumption incorporated into the CEM is that total labor times depend mainly on thrust levels. As a result of a recent modification of the CEM to increase the accuracy of predicted labor times, the dependence of labor time on thrust level is now embodied in third- and fourth-order polynomials.

Hines, Merlon M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Software for Estimating Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

A high-level parametric mathematical model for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center has been implemented as a Microsoft Excel program that generates multiple spreadsheets. The model and the program are both denoted, simply, the Cost Estimating Model (CEM). The inputs to the CEM are the parameters that describe particular tests, including test types (component or engine test), numbers and duration of tests, thrust levels, and other parameters. The CEM estimates anticipated total project costs for a specific test. Estimates are broken down into testing categories based on a work-breakdown structure and a cost-element structure. A notable historical assumption incorporated into the CEM is that total labor times depend mainly on thrust levels. As a result of a recent modification of the CEM to increase the accuracy of predicted labor times, the dependence of labor time on thrust level is now embodied in third- and fourth-order polynomials.

Hines, Merlon M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Classification of simple vegetation types using POLSAR image data

Mapping basic vegetation or land cover types is a fairly common problem in remote sensing. Knowledge of the land cover type is a key input to algorithms which estimate geophysical parameters, such as soil moisture, surface roughness, leaf area index or biomass from remotely sensed data. In an earlier paper, an algorithm for fitting a simple three-component scattering model to POLSAR data was presented. The algorithm yielded estimates for surface scatter, double-bounce scatter and volume scatter for each pixel in a POLSAR image data set. In this paper, we show how the relative levels of each of the three components can be used as inputs to simple classifier for vegetation type. Vegetation classes include no vegetation cover (e.g. bare soil or desert), low vegetation cover (e.g. grassland), moderate vegetation cover (e.g. fully developed crops), forest and urban areas. Implementation of the approach requires estimates for the three components from all three frequencies available using the NASA/JPL AIRSAR, i.e. C-, L- and P-bands. The research described in this paper was carried out by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Freeman, A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Direct system parameter identification of mechanical structures with application to modal analysis

In this paper a method is described to estimate mechanical structure characteristics in terms of mass, stiffness and damping matrices using measured force input and response data. The estimated matrices can be used to calculate a consistent set of damped natural frequencies and damping values, mode shapes and modal scale factors for the structure. The proposed technique is attractive as an experimental modal analysis method since the estimation of the matrices does not require previous estimation of frequency responses and since the method can be used, without any additional complications, for multiple force input structure testing.

Leuridan, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

NASA NTRS1978

Preamplifier Noise in VLF Receivers

Noise specifications for junction field-effect transistors are presented in different ways depending on the particular semiconductor manufacturer. Arithmetic involved in converting these specifications to equivalent RMS noise in microvolts developed at the preamplifier input terminal is reviewed. These methods were useful for estimating the noise performance of high input impedance preamplifiers used with E-field antennas operating in the range of 1 KHz to 10 MHz. Both the JFET MPF-102 transistor and the COS/MOS CA3600 transistor array provided amplification for VLF receivers where the internally generated noise was well below the atmospheric noise level. The CA3600 transistor array provided better performance because of the more symmetrical complementary MOS transistor transfer characteristics than a single N-type biased JFET transistor. The CMOS amplifier resulted in self-compensating gain characteristics over a very wide temperature range from -55 to +125 C.

Burhans, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Aerodynamic parameters of an advanced fighter aircraft estimated from flight data. Preliminary results

Preliminary estimates of aerodynamic parameters of an advanced fighter aircraft were obtained from flight data of different values of the angle of attack from 8 to 54 deg. The data were analyzed by a stepwise regression with the ordinary least squares technique. The estimated stability and control derivatives are plotted against the angle of attack and compared with wind tunnel measurement and previous flight results. Also included is the data compatibility check of measured data. The effect of various input forms on the estimates is demonstrated in two examples using simulated data.

Klein, Vladislav↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Simple Semaphore Signaling Technique for Ultra-High Frequency Spacecraft Communications

For planetary lander missions such as the upcoming Phoenix mission to Mars, the most challenging phase of the spacecraft-to-ground communications is during the critical phase termed entry, descent, and landing (EDL). At 8.4 GHz (X-band), the signals received by the largest Deep Space Network (DSN) antennas can be too weak for even 1 bit per second (bps) and therefore not able to communicate critical information to Earth. Fortunately, the lander s ultra-high frequency (UHF) link to an orbiting relay can meet the EDL requirements, but the data rate needs to be low enough to fit the capability of the UHF link during some or all of EDL. On Phoenix, the minimum data rate of the as-built UHF radio is 8 kbps and requires a signal level at the Odyssey orbiter of at least -120 dBm. For lower signaling levels, the effective data rate needs to be reduced, but without incurring the cost of rebuilding and requalifying the equipment. To address this scenario, a simple form of frequency-shift keying (FSK) has been devised by appropriately programming the data stream that is input to the UHF transceiver. This article describes this technique and provides performance estimates. Laboratory testing reveals that input signal levels at -140 dBm and lower can routinely be demodulated with the proposed signaling scheme, thereby providing a 20-dB and greater margin over the 8-kbps threshold.

Butman, S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Classification of Simple Vegetation Types Using POLSAR Image Data

Mapping basic vegetation or land cover types is a fairly common problem in remote sensing. Knowledge of the land cover type is a key input to algorithms which estimate geophysical parameters, such as soil moisture, surface roughness, leaf area index or biomass from remotely sensed data. In an earlier paper, an algorithm for fitting a simple three-component scattering model to POLSAR data was presented. The algorithm yielded estimates for surface scatter, double-bounce scatter and volume scatter for each pixel in a POLSAR image data set. In this paper, we show how the relative levels of each of the three components can be used as inputs to a simple classifier for vegetation type.

Freeman, A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Historic Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Mato Grosso, Brazil: 1. Source Data Uncertainties

Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008. Results: Deforestation estimates showed good agreement for multi-year trends of increasing and decreasing deforestation during the study period. However, annual deforestation rates differed by >20% in more than half of the years between 1997-2008, even for products based on similar input data. Tier 2 estimates of average forest carbon stocks varied between 99-192 Mg C/ha, with greatest differences in northwest Mato Grosso. Carbon stocks in deforested areas increased over the study period, yet this increasing trend in deforested biomass was smaller than the difference among carbon stock datasets for these areas. Conclusions: Patterns of spatial and temporal disagreement among available data products provide a roadmap for future efforts to reduce source data uncertainties for estimates of historic forest carbon emissions. Specifically, regions with large discrepancies in available estimates of both deforestation and forest carbon stocks are priority areas for evaluating and improving existing estimates. Full carbon accounting for REDD+ will also require filling data gaps, including forest degradation and secondary forest, with annual data on all forest transitions.

Morton, Douglas C.↗