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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Real-Time ANPC Inverter Digital Twin with Integrated Design-For-Trust

The demand for renewable energy has increased over the last few years, and so has the demand for greater expectations within the energy market. This increasing trend has been accompanied by more significant usage of internet-connected devices (IoT), leading to critical electrical infrastructure being connected to the internet. Implementing internet connectivity with such devices and systems provides benefits such as improving the system's performance, facilitating irregularity and anomaly mitigation, and providing additional situational awareness for enhanced decision-making. However, enhancing the connected system with IoT introduces a drawback – a greater vulnerability to cyber-attacks. Cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure in the electrical sector have occurred in the United States and Ukraine. These cyber-attacks highlight and expose vulnerabilities that a system inherits when connecting to the internet. These attacks left thousands of customers without electricity for hours until operators could regain control of the electric utility grid. Therefore, to address the vulnerabilities of an internet-connected power electronic device, this work focused on the hardware layer of the system. Implementing a cyber-control system inside the hardware layer can significantly reduce the possibility of an attacker patching malicious controller firmware into a photovoltaic grid-connected inverter, thus mitigating the likelihood that the inverter becomes inactive a cyber-attack scenario. With this mitigation technique, if a cyberattack is successful and an attacker gains control of the network, a cyber-defense technique is in place to mitigate the impact of the cyber-attack. This additional protection layer was developed based on an innovative concept known as Digital Twin (DT). A DT, in this case, replicates an Active-Neutral Point Clamped (ANPC) inverter and was designed using a hardware language known as VHDL (Very High-Speed Integrated Circuit Hardware Description Language) and applied to Field-Programmable-GateArray (FPGA). The DT is embedded within the FPGA and contained in a controller board, the UCB (Unified Controller Board), developed by the University of Arkansas electrical engineering team. This UCB also contains two Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) responsible for generating associated signals to control an authentic physical inverter. These DSP signals are received and processed by the FPGA that implements the DT of an ANPC; in other words, it simulates in realtime the expected output of an actual ANPC inverter using the signals from the DSP. When a new firmware is ready to be patched, the DT provides output signals simulating behavior that a real ANPC inverter would generate with the new firmware. The new firmware is tested to check if it meets all the operational requirements established using a Design-For-Trust technique (DFTr). If the new firmware fails in at least one of the DFT tests, it is considered malicious and must be rejected. This work is divided into sections, such as Background, which explains the pieces that were used and the strategy behind this work; Process and Procedure, which explains the methodology that was adopted to prove the reliability and effectiveness of this work; Results and Discussion, where the simulations and results are described and explained; followed by Conclusion and Future work section, which concludes this work and adds possible future projects to continue this work further.

do Amaral Custodio, Paulo Vitor↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resource-aware compression

Systems, apparatuses, and methods for implementing a multi-tiered approach to cache compression are disclosed. A cache includes a cache controller, light compressor, and heavy compressor. The decision on which compressor to use for compressing cache lines is made based on certain resource availability such as cache capacity or memory bandwidth. This allows the cache to opportunistically use complex algorithms for compression while limiting the adverse effects of high decompression latency on system performance. To address the above issue, the proposed design takes advantage of the heavy compressors for effectively reducing memory bandwidth in high bandwidth memory (HBM) interfaces as long as they do not sacrifice system performance. Accordingly, the cache combines light and heavy compressors with a decision-making unit to achieve reduced off-chip memory traffic without sacrificing system performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Cyber Situational Understanding

Effective cybersecurity operations require the ability to analyze large amounts of information to assess security risks and formulate defensive strategies against adversaries. This has become more complex in recent years as the sprawl and interconnectivity of devices grows through implementation of virtualization, cloud computing, and Internet of Things (IoT). The amount of data and analysis required for effective cybersecurity command and control decisions far exceeds humans’ capacity to perform manually. We characterize the analysis problem as cyber situational understanding. The research presented to improve cyber situational understanding focuses on vulnerability analysis and threat intelligence. Regarding vulnerabilities, entities must analyze and plan work for between thousands and tens of thousands of software vulnerabilities annually. Entities heavily use network firewalls to limit vulnerability exposure. As a result, some of these vulnerabilities permit exposure to adversarial exploitation, whereas others are inaccessible and therefore present negligible risk of exploitation. Distinguishing between high and low risk software vulnerabilities requires a deep understanding of the vulnerability, network firewall protection, and characteristics of the targeted device. This problem is solved by extracting network service features from vulnerability data features using both machine-learning and natural language processing. Then, the network firewall topology is parsed to determine which vulnerabilities are reachable by adversaries. Ultimately, a state-based safety analysis ascertains which vulnerabilities are unsafe. A related vulnerability analysis problem occurs in cybersecurity operations when associating an entity’s hardware and software assets to public vulnerability databases. Assets often reveal hardware and software through installation artifacts and network service identification, and entities store these artifacts in inventory databases. However, software and hardware vendors apply a standard Common Platform Enumeration (CPE) naming convention when publicly reporting vulnerabilities. Associating these two datasets often requires many hours to days of manual inspection. The proposed solution automates the mapping approach of human analysts using fuzzy matching techniques, natural language processing, and, ultimately, machine learning to present a small set of recommendations for mapping the two datasets. The result significantly reduces human analysis time and reduces the occurrence of false positives in vulnerability notifications. Finally, cyber threat intelligence (CTI) requires associating cyber observable artifacts, such as IP addresses, URIs, and file hashes, with cyber threat tactics, techniques, and procedures. Unfortunately, most CTI data is compartmentalized across multiple organizations and cannot be shared due to the legal and reputational risk with cyber threat being associated with the entity. The approach to solving this problem inovlves using a distributed ledger with anonymous token spending and authentication. This allows a consortium of semi-trusted entities to share the workload of curating CTI for a threat sharing community’s cooperative benefit.

Huff, Philip↗
DOE OSTI2024

Industrial process heat decarbonization: A user-centric perspective

Eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from industrial process heat (IPH) is considered a key element of decarbonizing the overall industrial sector. However, industrial users and the processes by which they may adopt and implement technologies for decarbonization have largely been overlooked in the United States by an emphasis on developing and commercializing new technologies. While recent deployment and demonstration programs are an indication that decarbonization policy is beginning to acknowledge industrial users, little research has been conducted to understand how users mediate technical and nontechnical requirements to decarbonize IPH. Our exploratory analysis uses interviews with industry representatives and document analysis to begin developing a user-centric perspective. Here, we find that successful adoption and implementation of decarbonized IPH technologies may require adaptation to diverse and potentially unique combinations of user requirements and local contexts. Instead of pursuing "crosscutting" IPH technologies, a more effective and expeditious approach may be to develop crosscutting decision-making that spans multiple technologies. This approach may offer unexplored opportunities to improve demonstration and deployment programs, but more user-centric research is needed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Waste Management Project Success - Regulatory Assurance Systems - 20118

Waste management (WM) and remediation projects are essential within a restorative environmental culture. Despite years of experience, challenges and obstacles associated with efficient and effective WM project execution remain. Although some obstacles are project specific, a common challenge is navigating the regulatory landscape from planning through execution, particularly with first of a kind (FOAK) and first in a while (FIAW) projects. The absence of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy places significant hurdles in the path of project success. To clear a path for the successful execution of increasingly complex WM projects, this paper focuses on development of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy and implementation plan that effectively engages stakeholders, agencies, and performers to produce project plans that fully and cost effectively integrate applicable regulatory requirements. The most reliable way to align regulatory processes and decisions needed for mission success is through a regulatory assurance system. This system establishes a healthy interface with regulatory decision makers, to work in a collaborative manner, to create a common vision for regulatory decisions on an agreed upon schedule. A regulatory assurance system consists of several elements. Although the mission may vary from cleanup to site closure to nuclear component production, the elements of a regulatory assurance system remain essentially constant and must include: 1) identifying a common vision or end state, 2) developing a long-term, integrated strategy and schedule, 3) establishing a regulatory partnering team consisting of key decision-makers, 4) regular and frequent communication with decision-makers, 5) ensuring consistent surveillance for early identification of issues and changes that may impact the project, 6) quick resolution of emerging issues to prevent schedule impact, 7) identifying core compliance functions, 8) periodically assessing progress of the project as it relates to regulatory assurance and, 9) providing constructive feedback to improve the process. A regulatory assurance system provides a living, multi-faceted approach to planning, visioning, communicating and tracking to avoid surprises and ensure smooth and timely progress to the project. The overall success measures will be whether the system produces common sense regulatory decisions supporting the vision on time without appeal. Effective regulatory frameworks rarely happen on their own. Balanced, common-sense regulatory decisions stem from teams that are trained to work together to achieve shared goals. In this paper, particular attention is placed on the importance of starting with a shared vision for a regulatory assurance and execution strategy that leverages experience to establish optimal approaches. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Black-Box Optimization for Design of Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaic Hybrid Systems with Optimal Dispatch Decisions

The hybridization of concentrating solar power (CSP) and photovoltaics (PV) can enable dispatchable renewable electricity generation at a lower price than current stand-alone CSP systems. However, designing a CSP-PV hybrid system can be challenging because of the many degrees of freedom in design that affect the internal and external system interactions and trade-offs. We develop a methodology to determine optimal designs for CSP-PV hybrids by implementing NLopt's derivative-free, or “black-box,” algorithms around pre-existing CSP-PV hybrid simulation software that utilizes the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model (SAM); we then employ a dispatch optimization model to determine operational decisions that maximize a plant’s profits. We present optimal designs for CSP-PV hybrid systems dispatching against four time-of-delivery (ToD) pricing structures. NLopt’s algorithms can improve the base case design’s power purchase agreement (PPA) price by 15% to 21%, depending on the ToD pricing structure. In addition, we present the resulting optimal CSP-PV hybrid design’s annual performance metrics, which tend to have capacity factors between 50% and 62%, but are able to generate electricity during the year’s highest-valued periods about 90% of the time. Lastly, we investigate the trade-offs between capacity factor and PPA price using Pareto fronts and demonstrate that, for some ToD pricing structures, the system capacity factor can increase by 20% but at the expense of a 2% increase in PPA price.

black-box↗
DOE OSTI2022

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the sensitivity and repeatability of permanganate oxidizable carbon as a soil health metric: An interlab comparison across soils

Soil organic matter is central to the soil health framework. Therefore, reliable indicators of Soil organic matter is central to the soil health framework. Therefore, reliable indicators of changes in soil organic matter are essential to inform land management decisions. Permanganate oxidizable carbon (PDXC), an emerging soil health indicator, has shown promise for being sensitive to soil management. However, strict standardization is required for widespread implementation in research and commercial contexts. Here, we used 36 soils-three from each of the 12 USDA soil orders-to determine the effects of sieve size and soil mass of analysis on PDXC results. Using replicated measurements across 12 labs in the US and the EU (n = 7951 samples), we quantified the relative importance of 1) variation between labs, 2) variation within labs, 3) effect soil mass, and 4) effect of soil sieve size on the repeatability of PDXC. We found a wide range of overall variability in PDXC values across labs (0.03 to 171.8%; mean = 13.4%), and much of this variability was attributable to within-lab variation (median = 6.5%) independently of soil mass or sieve size. Greater soil mass (2.5 g) decreased absolute PDXC values by a mean of 177 mg kg -1 soil and decreased analytical variability by 6.5%. For soils with organic carbon (SOC) >10%, greater soil mass (2.5 g) resulted in more frequent PDXC values above the limit of detection whereas the lower soil mass (0.75 g) resulted in PDXC values below the limit of detection for SOC contents <5%. A finer sieve size increased absolute values of PDXC by 124 mg kg -1 while decreasing the analytical variability by 1.8%. In general, soils with greater SOC contents had lower analytical variability. These results point to potential standardizations of the PDXC protocol that can decrease the variability of the metric. We recommend that the PDXC protocol be standardized to use 2.5 g for soils <10% SOC. Sieve size was a relatively small contributor to analytical variability and therefore we recommend that this decision be tailored to the study purpose. Tradeoffs associated with these standardizations can be mitigated, ultimately providing guidance on how to standardize PDXC for routine analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A combined machine learning and density functional theory study of binary Ti-Nb and Ti-Zr alloys: Stability and Young’s modulus

The multicomponent Ti alloys, specifically the -phase, have experienced a strong growth over the last decades, due to their outstanding properties of ultra-high strength and low Young’s modulus. These properties play a significant role in many aerospace and biomedical applications. Selection and optimization of multicomponent alloys is challenging due to the vast chemical and compositional space. Here we investigate the use of machine learning techniques informed by density functional calculations to guide the selection of Nb- and Zr-based Ti binary alloys. From the cubic structures obtained from high throughput calculations and literature, we identify several structures with Young’s moduli below 40 GPa. The multivariant decision tree methods provide efficient surrogate models to identify structure variables have high influences on the energetic stability and Young’s modulus. Furthermore, we implement a workflow of incorporating DFT provided results and machine learning method to explore the chemical and composition space of other binary and multicomponent alloys, to eventually accelerate the material design via taking advantages of identified key variables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The lay of the land: What we know about non-operating agricultural and absentee forest landowners in the U.S. and Europe

While non-operating agricultural and absentee forest landowners across the U.S. and Europe are an important group of landowners, our understanding of them remains relatively limited. In this paper, we conduct a systematic literature review on these landowners to encapsulate a current lay of the land in terms of what we know about these landowners and move the dialogue on this topic forward. Eighty-one articles are identified in our search of empirical literature. For each of the landowner types, we discuss their demographics and the three primary themes that emerged related to land management: participation in land management decisions, attitudes regarding land use and ownership, and resource needs in working with these landowners. For agricultural non-operating landowners, we find limited participation in land management decisions, particularly among women, a variety of individual and social factors play a role in involvement, and while they have pro-conservation attitudes, implementation of conservation practices is more limited. Absentee forest landowners we find are more willing to use management plans, yet less willing to engage in active management and risk reduction. These landowners have a range of attitudes regarding land use, with studies highlighting recreation, conservation, and profit motivations. In conclusion, our review concludes with identifying specific needs for more research and outreach on these landowners.

absentee↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of a model predictive controller enabling anticipatory control strategies for a heat-pipe system

To support the reliable and resilient operation of modular reactors and microreactors, anticipatory control strategies have been proposed for achieving faster-than-real-time predictions and decision-making capabilities in anticipation of potential anomalies, including setpoint changes and cyber incidents. Here this work presents how anticipatory control strategies can be implemented via model predictive control (MPC) of a single heat pipe’s temperature. Considering the uncertainty in developing and applying MPC, this work evaluates MPC performance given three different model forms: a linear response surface model, an artificial neural network (ANN), and an autoregressive model with exogenous input (ARX). This work also evaluates the impacts of different input biases and variance on MPC performance in order to account for potential sensor reading variations due to cyber incidents. We observe that nonparametric models such as the ANN and ARX result in more fluctuated control actions compared to the MPC applied to the linear response surface model. However, when the cyber incidents are of a large magnitude, the linear response surface model produces smaller feasible regions than the nonparametric models under identical constraints.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Opportunities for Treatment and Reuse of Agricultural Drainage in the United States

Irrigation accounts for 42% of the total freshwater withdrawals in the United States. Climate change, the pressure of a growing population, degrading water quality, and increased competition from other sectors could constrain continuous supply to meet future agricultural water demand. This study presents an evaluation framework to assess the potential reuse of agricultural drainage water for crop irrigation. Using a regional approach, we review the current state of agricultural drainage treatment and reuse and the institutional, economic, and other barriers that can influence the reuse decision. In the 31 eastern states, agricultural drainage contains valuable nutrients that can be reused for irrigation with minimal treatment, while the 17 western states struggle with large volumes of saline drainage that can contain constituents of concern (e.g., selenium), preventing reuse without treatment. Using a new decision-support tool called WaterTAP3, a potential treatment train for saline agricultural drainage was analyzed to identify treatment challenges, research needs, and the potential implementation at a larger scale. As demonstrated by our case study, desalination of agricultural drainage is costly and energy intensive and will require sizable investments to fully develop and optimize technologies as well as manage the generated waste and brine.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial non-locality of electronic correlations beyond GW approximation

The question of spatial locality of electronic correlations beyond GW approximation is one of the central issues of the famous combination of GW and dynamical mean field theory, GW+DMFT. In this study, the above question is addressed directly (for the first time) by performing calculations with and without assumption of locality of the corresponding diagrams. For this purpose we use sc(GW+G3W2) approach where the higher order part (G3W2) is evaluated with fully momentum dependent Green's function G and screened interaction W and with "local" variant, where the single site approximation is assumed for both G and W. For all three materials studied in this work (NiO, α-Ce, LiFeAs), we have found the spatial non-locality effects to be strong. For NiO and LiFeAs they, in fact, are decisive for the proper evaluation of vertex corrections. The results of this study have direct impact on our understanding of approximations made in practical implementations of GW+DMFT method, where all diagrams beyond GW (DMFT part) are assumed to be local. Taking into account the fact that the first diagrams beyond GW represent the most important contribution also in GW+DMFT calculations, we conclude that the basic assumption of GW+DMFT, namely the locality of diagrams evaluated in the DMFT part, is not as good as it is believed to be.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

STREAM: Strategic Technology Roadmapping and Energy, Environmental, and Economic Analysis Model

This is the implementation of the framework for the planning of the technological makeup of the industrial sector. Motivated by the efforts to achieve carbon neutrality, the model of this framework modifies the portfolio of technologies over time for the sector of interest such that, - Net Present Value (NPV) is minimized - Constraint on Greenhouse Emissions (GHG), e.g. carbon dioxide, is satisfied - Demand of the underlying commodity is satisfied - The current implementation reflects a case study for the electric power sector. The for a given initial set of capacities of different vintages, the space of decisions include, - Retirement of the existing capacities. - Retrofitting the existing capacities to alternative characteristics. - Creation of new capacities from a technology portfolio. All the associated quantities with the deployments, e.g. CO2, heat requirement, etc.

Thiery, David↗
DOE OSTI2021

CLOSURE REPORT FOR CORRECTIVE ACTION UNIT 577 AREA 5 CHROMIUM CONTAINING WASTE DISPOSAL CELLS

Report will be submitted to the state of Nevada Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 577, “Area 5 Chromium Containing Waste Disposal Cells,” includes five low-level waste cells at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) where buried waste received from Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS), was subsequently determined to contain chromium that exceeded the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure regulatory limit, which would require the waste to carry hazardous waste code D007. CAU 577 was created to satisfy the requirements of the Settlement Agreement (SA) executed between the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) and the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office on April 25, 2019. The SA required that the chromium-containing waste received from NFS would be addressed following the closure process laid out in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO). The FFACO process ensures proper closure of the chromium-containing waste cells and documentation of that closure through FFACO-type documents (NDEP 2019). As stipulated in Paragraph 5C of the SA, a Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan (CADD/CAP) was prepared that identified and evaluated risks and corrective action alternatives (CAAs) for CAU 577, provided the plan for implementing the recommended CAA, and presented the post-closure plan (U.S. Department of Energy [DOE] Environmental Management [EM] Nevada Program 2021).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Incorporating the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology in a Performance Assessment Model - 20403

The evidence of climate change is increasingly well-documented and impacts should be incorporated in performance assessment studies. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. Probabilistic modeling is a core requirement for quantifying uncertainty and evaluating its impacts. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment because of the existence of uncertainty is contradictory to good modeling practices - the most uncertain issues and parameters require the most attention in effective probabilistic modeling. Excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. In this work we develop methods to use the output from hydrologic models and analysis of historical aerial imagery to quantify and implement the impacts of climate change on hydrologic processes at a nuclear waste site in West Valley, New York. Specifically, we used the HELP (Hydraulic Performance of Landfill Performance) model to characterize key hydrologic processes under both current and future climate conditions to assess the impacts of changing climate on hydrology. A suite of previous climatic models were reviewed and synthesized to produce a cohesive representation of the current state of knowledge of the impact of climate change on important model inputs such as precipitation. Output from the HELP simulations was coupled to the GoldSim model that was used to develop the Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) approach through the application of a novel 'nearest neighbor' technique. First, several thousand realizations were generated from the HELP model using a Latin Hypercube experimental design to ensure adequate coverage of the parameter space of explanatory variables used to drive HELP. For example, porosity is a physical parameter that is used as an input to both HELP and the GoldSim PA model. We then ran sensitivity analysis (SA) algorithms on the output of HELP for each of the responses of interest. For each predictor, each time we build an SA model we get a different value for the sensitivity index (SI). From the collection of all the SA models, the average was computed among all of the SIs to represent the predictor within the context of the nearest neighbor approach. That is, we conduct SA on each HELP outcome for each scenario. This gives us parameter sensitivity indices for the outcomes. We average the parameter sensitivity indices across the outcomes to get the average SI for a scenario. For each realization that is generated from the Goldsim PA model, Goldsim generates random values for physical/empirical parameters that HELP uses as well. For each vector of physical/empirical parameters that Goldsim generates, the vector from the 5,000 HELP runs that is most 'similar' to the Goldsim vector is computed using the nearest neighbor approach. In this context 'similar' means minimization of the SA-weighted sum of the absolute differences among the 5,000 values computed for this statistic, where each value corresponds to a different HELP realization. In order to account for the impacts of climate change, this process was repeated using the spatially downscaled future climate projections. For each of the key parameters of interest, it was assumed that a linear change depicted the relationship between the values for the present day and those for 2100. In this way, the climatically-driven changes in key parameters used to inform the GoldSim model are quantified and incorporated into the PA model output for the future. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Improved Decision Making for the Smarter Grid: Geomagnetic Disturbance Implicit Modeling Uncertainty Quantification

Geomagnetic disturbances can greatly disrupt the power grid operation. This is caused by low-frequency changes in the earth’s magnetic field, which upon interaction with the deep earth conductivity induces a changing electric field at the earth’s surface. This in turn induces quasi-direct currents which have the potential to cause protective devices to operate, widespread damage to high-voltage transformers, or voltage collapse due to induced reactive power losses. While these impacts have been known since the 1940s, only recently have standards for GMD response been implemented. Because these standards are heavily based on models, it is important to understand when it is appropriate to make certain modeling assumptions. In this work, implicit modeling uncertainty is quantified for the purpose of enhanced decision making for disturbance impact mitigation. Considering electromagnetic models, modeling assumptions of non-uniform grounding, imbalanced operation, transformer saturation, and geomagnetically induced currents, voltage estimation values are analyzed. Statistical characteristics of modeling uncertainty are obtained by analysis of synthetically generated data. Results statistically characterize geomagnetic disturbances modeling uncertainty, providing an important tool for impact mitigation.

grid analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗