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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Homocysteine and Cognitive Performance in Elders with Self-Neglect

Elevated plasma homocysteine has been associated with altered cognitive performance in older adults. Elders referred to Adult Protective Services (APS) for self-neglect have been reported to have elevated plasma homocysteine levels and to suffer from cognitive impairment. This study assesses the association, if any, between plasma homocysteine and cognitive performance among elders with self-neglect. Methods: Sixty-five community-living adults, 65 years of age and older, reported to Adult Protective Services for self-neglect and 55 matched controls (matched for age, ethnicity, gender and socio-economic status) consented and participated in this study. The research team conducted in-home comprehensive geriatric assessments which included the mini-mental state exam (MMSE), the 15-item geriatric depression scale (GDS), the Wolf-Klein Clock Drawing Tests (CDT) and a comprehensive nutritional biochemistry panel, which included plasma homocysteine. Student s t tests and Pearson correlations were conducted to assess for bivariate associations. Results: Elders with self-neglect had significantly higher plasma homocysteine levels (M=12.68umol/L, sd=4.4) compared to the controls (M=10.40umol/L, sd=3.61;t=3.21, df=127, p=.002). There were no statistically significant associations between cognitive performance and plasma homocysteine in the self-neglect group, however there was a significant correlation between plasma homocysteine and the CDT among the controls (r=-.296, p=.022). Conclusion: Mean plasma homocysteine levels were significantly higher in elders with self-neglect, however, they do not appear to be related to cognitive performance, indicating that cognitive impairment in elder self-neglect involve mechanisms other than hyperhomocysteinemia. These findings warrant further investigation

Burnett, J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Parathyroid Hormone Levels and Cognition

Hyperparathyroidism is a well-recognized cause of impaired cognition due to hypercalcemia. However, recent studies have suggested that perhaps parathyroid hormone itself plays a role in cognition, especially executive dysfunction. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship of parathyroid hormone levels in a study cohort of elders with impaied cognition. Methods: Sixty community-living adults, 65 years of age and older, reported to Adult Protective Services for self-neglect and 55 controls matched (on age, ethnicity, gender and socio-economic status) consented and participated in this study. The research team conducted in-home comprehensive geriatric assessments which included the Mini-mental state exam (MMSE), the 15-item geriatric depression scale (GDS) , the Wolf-Klein clock test and a comprehensive nutritional panel, which included parathyroid hormone and ionized calcium. Students t tests and linear regression analyses were performed to assess for bivariate associations. Results: Self-neglecters (M = 73.73, sd=48.4) had significantly higher PTH levels compared to controls (M =47.59, sd=28.7; t=3.59, df=98.94, p<.01). There was no significant group difference in ionized calcium levels. Overall, PTH was correlated with the MMSE (r=-.323, p=.001). Individual regression analyses revealed a statistically significant correlation between PTH and MMSE in the self-neglect group (r=-.298, p=.024) and this remained significant after controlling for ionized calcium levels in the regression. No significant associations were revealed in the control group or among any of the other cognitive measures. Conclusion: Parathyroid hormone may be associated with cognitive performance.

Burnett, J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Pharmacokinetics of Intranasal Scopolamine Gel Formulation (Inscop)

Space Motion Sickness (SMS) is commonly experienced by astronauts and often requires treatment with medications during early flight days of space missions. Orally administered scopolamine is commonly used by astronauts to prevent SMS. Bioavailability of oral (PO) SMS medications is often low and highly variable. Intranasal (IN) administration of medications achieves higher and more reliable bioavailability than from an equivalent PO dose. Methods: To test the safety and reliability of INSCOP, two clinical studies were performed, a dose escalation study and a comparison study administering INSCOP during normal ambulation and head down tilt bedrest. Efficacy was evaluated by testing INSCOP with two, different motion sickness inducing paradigms. Results: Preliminary results indicate that INSCOP demonstrates linear pharmacokinetics and a low side effect profile. In head down tilt bedrest, relative bioavailability of INSCOP was increased for females at both doses (0.2 and 0.4 mg) and for males at the higher dose (0.4 mg) but is reduced at the lower dose (0.2 mg) compared to normal ambulation. INSCOP displays gender specific differences during ABR. One of the treatment efficacy trials conducted at Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center demonstrated that INSCOP is efficacious at both doses (0.2 and 0.4 mg) in suppressing motion sickness symptoms as indicated by longer chair ride times with INSCOP administration than with placebo, and efficacy increases with dose. Similar results were seen using another motion sickness simulator, the motion simulator dome, at the Naval Aerospace Medical Research Laboratory, with significantly increased time in the dome in motion-susceptible subjects when using INSCOP compared to untreated controls. Conclusion: Higher bioavailability, linear pharmacokinetics, a low incidence of side effects, and a favorable efficacy profile make INSCOP a desirable formulation for prophylactic and rescue treatment of astronauts in space and military personnel on duty.

Boyd, Jason L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk for Astronauts on Lunar Missions

During future lunar missions, exposure to solar particle events (SPEs) is a major safety concern for crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar surface or Earth-to-moon transit. NASA s new lunar program anticipates that up to 15% of crew time may be on EVA, with minimal radiation shielding. For the operational challenge to respond to events of unknown size and duration, a probabilistic risk assessment approach is essential for mission planning and design. Using the historical database of proton measurements during the past 5 solar cycles, a typical hazard function for SPE occurrence was defined using a non-homogeneous Poisson model as a function of time within a non-specific future solar cycle of 4000 days duration. Distributions ranging from the 5th to 95th percentile of particle fluences for a specified mission period were simulated. Organ doses corresponding to particle fluences at the median and at the 95th percentile for a specified mission period were assessed using NASA s baryon transport model, BRYNTRN. The cancer fatality risk for astronauts as functions of age, gender, and solar cycle activity were then analyzed. The probability of exceeding the NASA 30- day limit of blood forming organ (BFO) dose inside a typical spacecraft was calculated. Future work will involve using this probabilistic risk assessment approach to SPE forecasting, combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Biophysics Representation of the Two-Hit Model of Alzheimer's Disease for the Exploration of Late CNS Risks from Space Radiation

A concern for long-term space travel outside the Earth s magnetic field is the late effects to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic ray (GCR) or solar particle events (SPE). Human epidemiology data is severely limited for making CNS risk estimates and it is not clear such effects occur following low LET exposures. We are developing systems biology models based on biological information on specific diseases, and experimental data for proton and heavy ion radiation. A two-hit model of Alzheimer s disease (AD) has been proposed by Zhu et al.(1), which is the framework of our model. Of importance is that over 50% of the US population over the age of 75-y have mild to severe forms of AD. Therefore we recommend that risk assessment for a potential AD risk from space radiation should focus on the projection of an earlier age of onset of AD and the prevention of this possible acceleration through countermeasures. In the two-hit model, oxidative stress and aberrant cell cycle-related abnormalities leading to amyloid-beta plaques and neurofibrillary tangles are necessary and invariant steps in AD. We have formulated a stochastic cell kinetics model of the two-hit AD model. In our model a population of neuronal cells is allowed to undergo renewal through neurogenesis and is susceptible to oxidative stress or cell cycle abnormalities with age-specific accumulation of damage. Baseline rates are fitted to AD population data for specific ages, gender, and for persons with an apolipoprotein 4 allele. We then explore how low LET or heavy ions may increase either of the two-hits or neurogenesis either through persistent oxidative stress, direct mutation, or through changes to the micro-environment, and suggest possible ways to develop accurate quantitative estimates of these processes for predicting AD risks following long-term space travel.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Biomechanical Approach to Assessing Hip Fracture Risk

Bone loss in microgravity is well documented, but it is difficult to quantify how declines in bone mineral density (BMD) contribute to an astronaut's overall risk of fracture upon return. This study uses a biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk, or Factor of Risk (Phi), which is defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expeditions 1-18 were included in this study (n=25), while crewmembers who flew twice (n=2) were treated as separate subjects. Bone strength was estimated based on an empirical relationship between areal BMD at the hip, as measured by DXA, and failure load, as determined by mechanical testing of cadaver femora. Fall load during a sideways fall was calculated from a previously developed biomechanical model, which takes into account body weight, height, gender, and soft tissue thickness overlying the lateral aspect of the hip that serves to attenuate the impact force. While no statistical analyses have been performed yet, preliminary results show that males in this population have a higher FOR than females, with a post- flight Phi of 0.87 and 0.36, respectively. FOR increases 5.1% from preflight to postflight, while only one subject crossed the fracture "threshold" of Phi = 1, for a total of 2 subjects with a postflight Phi > 1. These results suggest that men may be at greater risk for hip fracture due largely in part to their relatively thin soft tissue padding as compared to women, since soft tissue thickness has the highest correlation (R(exp 2)= .53) with FOR of all subject-specific parameters. Future work will investigate changes in FOR during recovery to see if baseline risk levels are restored upon return to 1-g activity. While dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most commonly used clinical measure of bone health, it fails to provide compartment-specific information that is useful in assessing changes to bone quality as a result of microgravity exposure. Peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) accomplishes this by imaging transverse "slices" of the long bones. This project was a re-analysis of a 90 day bed rest study to determine if changes to cortical and trabecular compartments could be detected in the distal tibia with statistical significance using a new pQCT image analysis method. Nearly all changes in bone mineral density (BMD) and cross sectional area (CSA) measures were seen with statistical significance, with the exception of a change in cortical BMD. Total bone CSA increased by 1.1 % (p =0.01), cortical CSA decreased by - 5.6% (p<0.001) and trabecular CSA increased by 1.76% (p=0.007); the combination of which suggests bone resorption occurred at the endocortical surface in response to mechanical unloading by bed rest. Furthermore, total BMD and trabecular BMD decreased (-3.8%, p=0.001 and -2.8%, p =0.007, respectively), while decreases in cortical BMD failed to reach significance (-1.2%, p=0.07). Given that compartment-specific changes are seen with significance and are likely to influence bone strength, it is recommended that pQCT remain a standard measure used in bed rest because it provides a unique measure by which to better evaluate the efficacy of countermeasures to microgravity-induced bone loss.

Ellman, Rachel↗
NASA NTRS2009

Individual Susceptibility to Hypobaric Environments: An Update

Astronauts are at risk for developing decompression sickness (DCS) while exposed to the hypobaric environment of the extravehicular suit in space, in terrestrial hypobaric chambers, and during ascent from neutral buoyancy training dives. There is increasing recognition that DCS risk is different between diving and altitude exposures, with many individual parameters and environmental factors implicated as risk factors for development of DCS in divers but are not recognized as risk factors in altitude exposures. Much of the literature to date has focused on patent foramen ovale (PFO), which has long been considered a major risk factor for DCS in diving exposures, but its link to serious DCS in altitude exposures remains unclear. Knowledge of those risk factors specific to hypobaric DCS may help identify susceptible individuals and aid in astronaut selection, crew assignment, and mission planning. This paper reviews the current literature pertaining to these risk factors, including PFO, anthropometric parameters, gender, menstrual cycle, lifetime diving experience, physical fitness, biochemical levels, complement activation, cigarette smoking, fluid balance, and ambient temperature. Further research to evaluate pertinent risk factors for DCS in altitude exposures is recommended.

Law, Jennifer↗
NASA NTRS2010

Bone Density Following Long Duration Space Flight and Recovery

At approx.12 months, Bone Mineral Density (BMD) at most sites in men remained lower than would be predicted, raising concerns for long-term bone health consequences following space flight. Additional analyses based on longer follow-up are being conducted. Although the N is too small for definitive conclusions, women had lower rates of loss at load-bearing sites of the hip and spine immediately post-flight relative to men and smaller differences between observed vs. predicted BMD at most sites, both immediately and 12 months post-flight, relative to men. The role of other exposures/risk factors need to be explored to further understand these possible gender differences in BMD loss and recovery following long-duration space flight.

Amin, Shreyasee↗
NASA NTRS2010

Decline in Aerobic Fitness After Long-Term Stays on the International Space Station

U.S. and non-Russian International Partner astronauts who participate in long-term International Space Station (ISS) expeditions perform submaximal cycle exercise tests before, during, and after space flight. The heart rate (HR) and oxygen uptake (VO2) responses to exercise are used to estimate peak VO2 (EVO2pk). Purpose: To determine if the following factors are associated with the preflight-to-post flight change in EVO2pk: gender, age, body weight (BW), number of aerobic exercise sessions/wk- during flight, length of flight, EVO2pk measured before and late during the flight, ISS Expedition number and time between landing and the first post flight test. Methods: Records of 37 ISS astronauts (30 male, BW=81.6 plus or minus 8.6 kg; 7 female BW=66.1 plus or minus 4.9 kg [mean plus or minus SD]), age 46 plus or minus 4 years, were retrospectively examined. Peak HR and VO2 were measured approximately 9 months before flight to establish the test protocol. The submaximal cycle test consisted of three 5-minute stages designed to elicit 25, 50, and 75% of VO2pk. EVO2pk was calculated using linear least-squares extrapolation of average HR and VO2 during the last minute of each stage to predict VO2 at maximal HR. VO2 was not measured during flight and was assumed to not be different from preflight. Testing was performed 45 days before launch, late during flight, and during the week after landing. A random-intercept multivariate model was used to determine which characteristics significantly contributed to post flight EVO2pk. Results: In-flight aerobic exercise averaged 5.4 plus or minus 1.2 sessions/wk. ISS flight duration averaged 163 plus or minus 39 d. Mean EVO2pk values were 3.41 plus or minus 0.64 L (raised dot) per minute before flight, 3.09 plus or minus 0.57 L (raised dot) per minute late in flight, and 3.02 plus or minus 0.65 L (raised dot) per minute after flight. Late- and after-flight values were lower (p less than 0.05) than preflight values and did not differ from each other. Time between landing and post flight testing was 4.5 plus or minus 1.6 days. The only factor significantly associated with the post flight EVO2pk value was the late-flight EVO2pk score. Conclusion: Testing performed late during a mission provides a prediction of EVO2pk after landing. This approach may be implemented during longer missions.

Lynn, Peggy A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effects of 30-, 60-, and 90-Day Bed Rest on Postural Control in Men and Women

INTRODUCTION Head-down-tilt bed rest (HDT) has been used as a safe gr ound-based analog to mimic and develop countermeasures for the physiological effects of spaceflight, including decrements in postural stability. The purpose of this investigation was to characterize the effects of 30-, 60-, and 90-day bed rest on postural control in men and women. METHODS Twenty-nine subjects (18M,11F) underwent 13 days of ambula tory acclimatization and were placed in 6? HDT for 30 (n=12), 60 (n=8), or 90 (n=9) days, followed by 14 days of ambulatory recovery. Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) was used to assess changes in sensory and motor components of postural control, and recovery after HDT. Sensory Organization Tests (SOTs) objectively evaluate one?s ability to effectively use or suppress visual, vestibular, and proprioceptive information for postural control. Stability during the SOTs was assessed using peak-to-peak sway and convergence toward stability limits to derive an equilibrium score. Motor Control Tests (MCTs) evaluate one?s ability to recover from unexpected support surface perturbations, with performance determined by center-of-pressure path length. Whole-body kinematic data were collected to determine body-sway strategy used to maintain stability during each condition. Baselines were determined pre-HDT. Recovery was tracked post-HDT on days 0, 1, 2, and 4. RESULTS Immediately after HDT, subjects showed decreased performance on most SOTs, primarily on sway-referenced support conditions, typically returning to baseline levels within 4 days. MCT performance was not significantly affected. There were no significant gender or duration differences in performance. Kinematic data revealed a tendency to use ankle strategy to maintain an upright stance during most SOT conditions. Interestingly, six subjects (2M,4F) experienced orthostatic intolerance and were unable to complete day 0 testing. CONCLUSION HDT mimics some un loading mechanisms of spaceflight and elicits orthostatic issues present post-spaceflight (contributing to instability); however, it does not sufficiently address the vestibular dysfunction which occurs post-spaceflight.

Esteves, Julie↗
NASA NTRS2010

Human Health and Performance Considerations for Exploration of Near-Earth Asteroids

This presentation will describe the human health and performance issues that are anticipated for the human exploration of near-Earth asteroids (NEA). Humans are considered a system in the design of any such deep-space exploration mission, and exploration of NEA presents unique challenges for the human system. Key factors that define the mission are those that are strongly affected by distance and duration. The most critical of these is deep-space radiation exposure without even the temporary shielding of a nearby large planetary body. The current space radiation permissible exposure limits (PEL) restrict mission duration to 3-10 months depending on age and gender of crewmembers and stage of the solar cycle. Factors that affect mission architecture include medical capability; countermeasures for bone, muscle, and cardiovascular atrophy during continuous weightlessness; restricted food supplies; and limited habitable volume. The design of a habitat that can maintain the physical and psychological health of the crew and support mission operations with limited intervention from Earth will require an integrated research and development effort by NASA s Human Research Program, engineering, and human factors groups. Limited abort and return options for an NEA mission are anticipated to have important effects on crew psychology as well as influence medical supplies and training requirements of the crew. Other important factors are those related to isolation, confinement, communication delays, autonomous operations, task design, small crew size, and even the unchanging view outside the windows for most of the mission. Geological properties of the NEA will influence design of sample handling and containment, and extravehicular activity capabilities including suit ports and tools. A robotic precursor mission that collects basic information on NEA surface properties would reduce uncertainty about these aspects of the mission as well as aid in design of mission architecture and exploration tasks.

Kundrot, Craig↗
NASA NTRS2010

Ultrasound Imaging of Spine: State of the Art and Utility for Space Flight

Introduction: Ultrasound imaging (sonography) has been increasingly used for both primary diagnosis and monitoring of musculoskeletal injury, including fractures. In certain injuries, sonography has been shown to equal or surpass Magnetic Resonance Imaging in accuracy. Long-term exposure to reduced gravity may be expected to cause physiological and anatomical changes of the musculoskeletal system, which are not fully described or understood. In a limited-resource environment like space flight, sonography will likely remain the only imaging modality; therefore, further attention to its potential is warranted, including its ability to image anatomical deviations as well as irregularities of vertebrae and the spinal column. Methods: A thorough review of literature was conducted on the subject. A multipurpose ultrasound system was used to identify specific vertebrae, intervertebral disks, and other structures of the cervical spine in healthy volunteers, selected to represent various age, gender, and Body Mass Index (BMI) groups. Sonographic views were sought that would parallel radiographic views and signs used in the diagnosis of cervical spine injuries. Results: While using widely accepted radiographic signs of cervical spine injury, this sonographic protocol development effort resulted in successful identification of scanning planes and imaging protocols that could serve as alternatives for radiography. Some of these views are also applicable to diagnosing degenerative disk and bone disease, and other non-traumatic spine pathology. Strong, preliminary correlation has been demonstrated in a number of clinical cases between sonography and other imaging modalities. Conclusion: In the absence of radiography, sonography can be used to diagnose or rule out certain common types of cervical spine conditions including injury. Clinical validation of the findings appears to be realistic and would facilitate establishment of new sonographic protocols for special environments with lacking radiographic capability, such as human space flight.

Sargsyan, Ashot E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Atrial Arrhythmias in Astronauts. Summary of a NASA Summit

This slide presentation reviews the findings of a panel of heart experts brought together to study if atrial arrhythmias more prevalent in astronauts, and potential risk factors that may predispose astronauts to atrial arrhythmias. The objective of the panel was to solicit expert opinion on screening, diagnosis, and treatment options, identify gaps in knowledge, and propose relevant research initiatives. While Atrial Arrhythmias occur in approximately the same percents in astronauts as in the general population, they seem to occur at younger ages in astronauts. Several reasons for this predisposition were given: gender, hypertension, endurance training, and triggering events. Potential Space Flight-Related Risk factors that may play a role in precipitating lone atrial fibrillation were reviewed. There appears to be no evidence that any variable of the space flight environment increases the likelihood of developing atrial arrhythmias during space flight.

Barr, Yael↗
NASA NTRS2004

Effects of Vestibular Loss on Orthostatic Responses to Tilts in the Pitch Plane

The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which vestibular loss might impair orthostatic responses to passive tilts in the pitch plane in human subjects. Data were obtained from six subjects having chronic bilateral vestibular loss and six healthy individuals matched for age, gender, and body mass index. Vestibular loss was assessed with a comprehensive battery including dynamic posturography, vestibulo-ocular and optokinetic reflexes, vestibular evoked myogenic potentials, and ocular counterrolling. Head up tilt tests were conducted using a motorized two-axis table that allowed subjects to be tilted in the pitch plane from either a supine or prone body orientation at a slow rate (8 deg/s). The sessions consisted of three tilts, each consisting of20 min rest in a horizontal position, tilt to 80 deg upright for 10 min, and then return to the horizontal position for 5 min. The tilts were performed in darkness (supine and prone) or in light (supine only). Background music was used to mask auditory orientation cues. Autonomic measurements included beat-to-beat recordings of blood pressure (Finapres), heart rate (ECG), cerebral blood flow velocity in the middle cerebral artery (transcranial Doppler), end tidal CO2, respiratory rate and volume (Respritrace), and stroke volume (impedance cardiography). For both patients and control subjects, cerebral blood flow appeared to exhibit the most rapid adjustment following transient changes in posture. Outside of a greater cerebral hypoperfusion in patients during the later stages of tilt, responses did not differ dramatically between the vestibular loss and control subjects, or between tilts performed in light and dark room conditions. Thus, with the 'exception of cerebrovascular regulation, we conclude that orthostatic responses during slow postural tilts are not substantially impaired in humans following chronic loss of vestibular function, a result that might reflect compensation by nonvisual graviceptor inputs (e.g., somatosensory) or other circulatory reflex mechanisms.

Wood, Scott J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Use of Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Identity Prediction

We adopt Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to model sequential decision problems, which have the characteristic that the current decision made by a human decision maker has an uncertain impact on future opportunity. We hypothesize that the individuality of decision makers can be modeled as differences in the reward function under a common MDP model. A machine learning technique, Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL), was used to learn an individual's reward function based on limited observation of his or her decision choices. This work serves as an initial investigation for using IRL to analyze decision making, conducted through a human experiment in a cyber shopping environment. Specifically, the ability to determine the demographic identity of users is conducted through prediction analysis and supervised learning. The results show that IRL can be used to correctly identify participants, at a rate of 68% for gender and 66% for one of three college major categories.

Hayes, Roy↗
NASA NTRS2011

Social-Cognitive Biases in Simulated Airline Luggage Screening

This study illustrated how social cognitive biases affect the decision making process of air1ine luggage screeners. Participants (n = 96) performed a computer simulated task to detect hidden weapons in 200 x-ray images of passenger luggage. Participants saw each image for two (high time pressure) or six seconds (low time pressure). Participants observed pictures of the "passenger" who owns the luggage . The "pre-anchor group" answered questions about the passenger before the luggage image appeared, the "post-snchor" group answered questions after the luggage appeared, and the "no-anchor group" answered no questions. Participants either stopped or did not stop the bag. and rated their confidence in their decision. Participants under high time pressure had lower hit rates and higher false alarms, Significant differences between the pre-, no-, and post-anchor groups were based on the gender and race of the passengers. Participants had higher false alarm rates in response to male than female passengers.

Brown, Jeremy R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Chappell, Lori J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗