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DOE OSTI2023

TriWaSp: a multi-faceted visible spectroscopy diagnostic on the ST40 tokamak

Here, we present a new state-of-the-art Triple Wavelength Spectrometer (TriWaSp), recently deployed on ST40, a high field low aspect ratio spherical tokamak. The TriWaSp has a range of possible applications due to its flexible design; the current configuration focuses on charge exchange recombination spectroscopy from carbon and neon impurities in the ST40 plasma. This paper discusses the detailed setup of the system and presents initial charge exchange ion temperature measurements using a single line of sight, which show good agreement with other ion temperature diagnostics. Building on these commissioning results and forward modelling of the system, a new observation geometry has been implemented for the next experimental campaign which will considerably improve the localisation of ion temperature and velocity profile measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

An adjoint-based optimization method for jointly inverting heterogeneous material properties and fault slip from earthquake surface deformation data

SUMMARY Analysis of tectonic and earthquake-cycle associated deformation of the crust can provide valuable insights into the underlying deformation processes including fault slip. How those processes are expressed at the surface depends on the lateral and depth variations of rock properties. The effect of such variations is often tested by forward models based on a priori geological or geophysical information. Here, we first develop a novel technique based on an open-source finite-element computational framework to invert geodetic constraints directly for heterogeneous media properties. We focus on the elastic, coseismic problem and seek to constrain variations in shear modulus and Poisson’s ratio, proxies for the effects of lithology and/or temperature and porous flow, respectively. The corresponding nonlinear inversion is implemented using adjoint-based optimization that efficiently reduces the cost function that includes the misfit between the calculated and observed displacements and a penalty term. We then extend our theoretical and numerical framework to simultaneously infer both heterogeneous Earth’s structure and fault slip from surface deformation. Based on a range of 2-D synthetic cases, we find that both model parameters can be satisfactorily estimated for the megathrust setting-inspired test problems considered. Within limits, this is the case even in the presence of noise and if the fault geometry is not perfectly known. Our method lays the foundation for a future reassessment of the information contained in increasingly data-rich settings, for example, geodetic GNSS constraints for large earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku-oki M9 event, or distributed deformation along plate boundaries as constrained from InSAR.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Removing imaging systematics from galaxy clustering measurements with Obiwan: application to the SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey emission-line galaxy sample

This article presents the application of a new tool, Obiwan, which uses image simulations to determine the selection function of a galaxy redshift survey and calculate three-dimensional (3D) clustering statistics. Obiwan relies on a forward model of the process by which images of the night sky are transformed into a 3D large-scale structure catalogue, and offers several advantages over more traditional map-based techniques – such as operating on individual exposures and adopting a maximum likelihood approach. The photometric pipeline automatically detects and models galaxies and then generates a catalogue of such galaxies with detailed information for each one of them, including their location, redshift, and so on. Systematic biases in the imaging data are therefore imparted into the catalogues and must be accounted for in any scientific analysis of their information content. Obiwan simulates this process for samples selected from the Legacy Surveys imaging data. This imaging data will be used to select target samples for the next-generation Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) experiment. Here, we apply Obiwan to a portion of the SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey emission-line galaxies (ELGs). Systematic biases in the data are clearly identified and removed. We compare the 3D clustering results to those obtained by the map-based approach applied to the complete eBOSS Data Release 16 (DR16) sample. We find the results are consistent, thereby validating the eBOSS DR16 ELG catalogues, which is used to obtain cosmological results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

From core collapse to superluminous: the rates of massive stellar explosions from the Palomar Transient Factory

ABSTRACT We present measurements of the local core-collapse supernova (CCSN) rate using SN discoveries from the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF). We use a Monte Carlo simulation of hundreds of millions of SN light-curve realizations coupled with the detailed PTF survey detection efficiencies to forward model the SN rates in PTF. Using a sample of 86 CCSNe, including 26 stripped-envelope SNe (SESNe), we show that the overall CCSN volumetric rate is $r^\mathrm{CC}_v=9.10_{-1.27}^{+1.56}\times 10^{-5}\, \text{SNe yr}^{-1}\, \text{Mpc}^{-3}\, h_{70}^{3}$ at 〈z〉 = 0.028, and the SESN volumetric rate is $r^\mathrm{SE}_v=2.41_{-0.64}^{+0.81}\times 10^{-5}\, \text{SNe yr}^{-1}\, \text{Mpc}^{-3}\, h_{70}^{3}$. We further measure a volumetric rate for hydrogen-free superluminous SNe (SLSNe-I) using eight events at z ≤ 0.2 of $r^\mathrm{SLSN-I}_v=35_{-13}^{+25}\, \text{SNe yr}^{-1}\text{Gpc}^{-3}\, h_{70}^{3}$, which represents the most precise SLSN-I rate measurement to date. Using a simple cosmic star formation history to adjust these volumetric rate measurements to the same redshift, we measure a local ratio of SLSN-I to SESN of ${\sim}1/810^{+1500}_{-94}$, and of SLSN-I to all CCSN types of ${\sim}1/3500^{+2800}_{-720}$. However, using host galaxy stellar mass as a proxy for metallicity, we also show that this ratio is strongly metallicity dependent: in low-mass (logM* < 9.5 M⊙) galaxies, which are the only environments that host SLSN-I in our sample, we measure an SLSN-I to SESN fraction of $1/300^{+380}_{-170}$ and $1/1700^{+1800}_{-720}$ for all CCSN. We further investigate the SN rates a function of host galaxy stellar mass, and show that the specific rates of all CCSNe decrease with increasing stellar mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen reionization ends by z = 5.3: Lyman-α optical depth measured by the XQR-30 sample

ABSTRACT The presence of excess scatter in the Ly-α forest at z ∼ 5.5, together with the existence of sporadic extended opaque Gunn-Peterson troughs, has started to provide robust evidence for a late end of hydrogen reionization. However, low data quality and systematic uncertainties complicate the use of Ly-α transmission as a precision probe of reionization’s end stages. In this paper, we assemble a sample of 67 quasar sightlines at z > 5.5 with high signal-to-noise ratios of >10 per ≤15 km s−1 spectral pixel, relying largely on the new XQR-30 quasar sample. XQR-30 is a large program on VLT/X-Shooter which obtained deep (SNR > 20 per pixel) spectra of 30 quasars at z > 5.7. We carefully account for systematics in continuum reconstruction, instrumentation, and contamination by damped Ly-α systems. We present improved measurements of the mean Ly-α transmission over 4.9 < z < 6.1. Using all known systematics in a forward modelling analysis, we find excellent agreement between the observed Ly-α transmission distributions and the homogeneous-UVB simulations Sherwood and Nyx up to z ≤ 5.2 (<1σ), and mild tension (∼2.5σ) at z = 5.3. Homogeneous UVB models are ruled out by excess Ly-α transmission scatter at z ≥ 5.4 with high confidence (>3.5σ). Our results indicate that reionization-related fluctuations, whether in the UVB, residual neutral hydrogen fraction, and/or IGM temperature, persist in the intergalactic medium until at least z = 5.3 (t = 1.1 Gyr after the big bang). This is further evidence for a late end to reionization.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the thermal and ionization state of the low- z IGM using likelihood free inference

ABSTRACT We present a new approach to measure the power-law temperature density relationship $T=T_0 (\rho/ \bar{\rho })^{\gamma -1}$ and the UV background photoionization rate $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ of the intergalactic medium (IGM) based on the Voigt profile decomposition of the Ly α forest into a set of discrete absorption lines with Doppler parameter b and the neutral hydrogen column density $N_{\rm H\, {\small I}}$. Previous work demonstrated that the shape of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution is sensitive to the IGM thermal parameters T0 and γ, whereas our new inference algorithm also takes into account the normalization of the distribution, i.e. the line-density dN/dz, and we demonstrate that precise constraints can also be obtained on $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$. We use density-estimation likelihood-free inference (DELFI) to emulate the dependence of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution on IGM parameters trained on an ensemble of 624 nyx hydrodynamical simulations at z = 0.1, which we combine with a Gaussian process emulator of the normalization. To demonstrate the efficacy of this approach, we generate hundreds of realizations of realistic mock HST/COS data sets, each comprising 34 quasar sightlines, and forward model the noise and resolution to match the real data. We use this large ensemble of mocks to extensively test our inference and empirically demonstrate that our posterior distributions are robust. Our analysis shows that by applying our new approach to existing Ly α forest spectra at z ≃ 0.1, one can measure the thermal and ionization state of the IGM with very high precision ($\sigma _{\log T_0} \sim 0.08$ dex, σγ ∼ 0.06, and $\sigma _{\log \Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}} \sim 0.07$ dex).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dwarf AGNs from Optical Variability for the Origins of Seeds (DAVOS): insights from the dark energy survey deep fields

ABSTRACT We present a sample of 706, z < 1.5 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected from optical photometric variability in three of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) deep fields (E2, C3, and X3) over an area of 4.64 deg2. We construct light curves using difference imaging aperture photometry for resolved sources and non-difference imaging PSF photometry for unresolved sources, respectively, and characterize the variability significance. Our DES light curves have a mean cadence of 7 d, a 6-yr baseline, and a single-epoch imaging depth of up to g ∼ 24.5. Using spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting, we find 26 out of total 706 variable galaxies are consistent with dwarf galaxies with a reliable stellar mass estimate ($M_{\ast }\lt 10^{9.5}\, {\rm M}_\odot$; median photometric redshift of 0.9). We were able to constrain rapid characteristic variability time-scales (∼ weeks) using the DES light curves in 15 dwarf AGN candidates (a subset of our variable AGN candidates) at a median photometric redshift of 0.4. This rapid variability is consistent with their low black hole (BH) masses. We confirm the low-mass AGN nature of one source with a high S/N optical spectrum. We publish our catalogue, optical light curves, and supplementary data, such as X-ray properties and optical spectra, when available. We measure a variable AGN fraction versus stellar mass and compare to results from a forward model. This work demonstrates the feasibility of optical variability to identify AGNs with lower BH masses in deep fields, which may be more ‘pristine’ analogues of supermassive BH seeds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Map-based cosmology inference with lognormal cosmic shear maps

ABSTRACT Most cosmic shear analyses to date have relied on summary statistics (e.g. ξ+ and ξ−). These types of analyses are necessarily suboptimal, as the use of summary statistics is lossy. In this paper, we forward-model the convergence field of the Universe as a lognormal random field conditioned on the observed shear data. This new map-based inference framework enables us to recover the joint posterior of the cosmological parameters and the convergence field of the Universe. Our analysis properly accounts for the covariance in the mass maps across tomographic bins, which significantly improves the fidelity of the maps relative to single-bin reconstructions. We verify that applying our inference pipeline to Gaussian random fields recovers posteriors that are in excellent agreement with their analytical counterparts. At the resolution of our maps – and to the extent that the convergence field can be described by the lognormal model – our map posteriors allow us to reconstruct all summary statistics (including non-Gaussian statistics). We forecast that a map-based inference analysis of LSST-Y10 data can improve cosmological constraints in the σ8–Ωm plane by $\approx\!{30}{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ relative to the currently standard cosmic shear analysis. This improvement happens almost entirely along the $S_8=\sigma _8\Omega _{\rm m}^{1/2}$ directions, meaning map-based inference fails to significantly improve constraints on S8.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chandra measurements of gas homogeneity and turbulence at intermediate radii in the Perseus Cluster

ABSTRACT We present a Chandra study of surface brightness fluctuations in the diffuse intracluster medium of the Perseus Cluster. Our study utilizes deep, archival imaging of the cluster core as well as a new mosaic of 29 short $\, 5\,$-ks observations extending in eight different directions out to radii of $r_{500} \sim 2.2\, r_{2500}$. Under the assumption that the distribution of densities at a given radius is log-normally distributed, two important quantities can be derived from the width of the log-normal density distribution on a given spatial scale: the density bias, that is equal to the square root of the clumping factor C; and the one-component turbulent velocity, vk,1D. We forward-model all contributions to the measured surface brightness, including astrophysical and particle background components, and account for the Poisson nature of the measured signal. Measuring the distribution of surface brightness fluctuations in 1 arcmin2 regions, spanning the radial range $0.3\rm {-}2.2\, r_{2500}$ ($7.8\rm {-}57.3\,$ arcmin), we find a small to moderate average density bias of around $3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ at radii below $1.6\, r_{2500}$. We also infer an average turbulent velocity at these radii of V1D < 400 km s−1. Direct confirmation of our results on turbulent velocities inferred from surface brightness fluctuations should be possible using the X-ray calorimeter spectrometers to be flown aboard the XRISM and Athena observatories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The satellite population around luminous red galaxies in the 25 deg2 DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys Early Data Release

ABSTRACT Luminous red galaxies, or LRGs, are representative of the most massive galaxies and were originally selected in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey as good tracers of large-scale structure. They are dominated by by uniformly old stellar populations, have low star formation rates, early type morphologies, and little cold gas. Despite having old stellar populations and little in situ star formation, studies have shown that they have grown their stellar mass since z = 1, implying that they grow predominantly via the accretion of satellites. Tests of this picture have been limited because of the lack of deep imaging data sets that both covers a large enough area of the sky to contain substantial numbers of LRGs and that also is deep enough to detect faint satellites. We use the 25 deg2 Early Data Release (EDR) of the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys to characterize the satellite galaxy population of LRGs out to z = 0.65. The DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys are comprised of grz imaging to 2–2.5 mag deeper than SDSS and with better image quality. We use a new statistical background technique to identify excess populations of putative satellite galaxies around 1823 LRGs at 0.2 < z < 0.65. In three redshift and luminosity bins we measure the numbers of satellite galaxies and their r−z colour distribution down to rest-frame g-band luminosity limits at least 3.6 times fainter than L*. In addition, we develop a forward modeling technique and apply it to constrain the mean number of satellites in each of our redshift and luminosity bins. Finally, we use these estimates to determine the amount of stellar mass growth in LRGs down to the local Universe.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmology from weak lensing peaks and minima with Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey first-year data

We present cosmological constraints derived from peak counts, minimum counts, and the angular power spectrum of the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam first-year (HSC Y1) weak lensing shear catalogue. Weak lensing peak and minimum counts contain non-Gaussian information and hence are complementary to the conventional two-point statistics in constraining cosmology. In this work, we forward-model the three summary statistics and their dependence on cosmology, using a suite of N-body simulations tailored to the HSC Y1 data. We investigate systematic and astrophysical effects including intrinsic alignments, baryon feedback, multiplicative bias, and photometric redshift uncertainties. We mitigate the impact of these systematics by applying cuts on angular scales, smoothing scales, signal-to-noise ratio bins, and tomographic redshift bins. By combining peaks, minima, and the power spectrum, assuming a flat-ΛCDM model, we obtain S 8 ≡ σ 8 $\sqrt{Ω_m/0.3}$ = 0.810$^{+0.022}_{-0.026}$⁠, a 35 per cent tighter constraint than that obtained from the angular power spectrum alone. Our results are in agreement with other studies using HSC weak lensing shear data, as well as with Planck 2018 cosmology and recent CMB lensing constraints from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the South Pole Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmological constraints from density-split clustering in the BOSS CMASS galaxy sample

We present a clustering analysis of the BOSS DR12 CMASS galaxy sample, combining measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function and density-split clustering down to a scale of $1 \, h^{-1}\, \text{Mpc}$. Our theoretical framework is based on emulators trained on high-fidelity mock galaxy catalogues that forward model the cosmological dependence of the clustering statistics within an extended-ΛCDM framework, including redshift-space and Alcock–Paczynski distortions. Our base-ΛCDM analysis finds ω cdm = 0.1201 ± 0.0022, σ 8 = 0.792 ± 0.034, and n s = 0.970 ± 0.018, corresponding to fσ 8 = 0.462 ± 0.020 at z ≈ 0.525, which is in agreement with Planck 2018 predictions and various clustering studies in the literature. We test single-parameter extensions to base-ΛCDM, varying the running of the spectral index, the dark energy equation of state, and the density of mass-less relic neutrinos, finding no compelling evidence for deviations from the base model. We model the galaxy–halo connection using a halo occupation distribution framework, finding signatures of environment-based assembly bias in the data. We validate our pipeline against mock catalogues that match the clustering and selection properties of CMASS, showing that we can recover unbiased cosmological constraints even with a volume 84 times larger than the one used in this study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The mass profiles of dwarf galaxies from Dark Energy Survey lensing

We present a novel approach to extracting dwarf galaxies from photometric data to measure their average halo mass profile with weak lensing. We characterize their stellar mass and redshift distributions with a spectroscopic calibration sample. By combining the ${\sim} 5000\,\mathrm{deg}^2$ multiband photometry from the Dark Energy Survey and redshifts from the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs Survey with an unsupervised machine learning method, we select a low-mass galaxy sample spanning redshifts $z\lt 0.3$ and divide it into three mass bins. From low to high median mass, the bins contain [146 420, 330 146, 275 028] galaxies and have median stellar masses of $\log _{10}(M_*/\text{M}_\odot)=\left[8.52\substack{+0.57 -0.76},\, 9.02\substack{+0.50 -0.64},\, 9.49\substack{+0.50 -0.58}\right]$ . We measure the stacked excess surface mass density profiles, $\Delta \Sigma (R)$, of these galaxies using galaxy–galaxy lensing with a signal-to-noise ratio of [14, 23, 28]. Through a simulation-based forward-modelling approach, we fit the measurements to constrain the stellar-to-halo mass relation and find the median halo mass of these samples to be $\log _{10}(M_{\rm halo}/\text{M}_\odot)$ = [$10.67\substack{+0.2 -0.4}$, $11.01\substack{+0.14 -0.27}$, $11.40\substack{+0.08 -0.15}$]. The cold dark matter profiles are consistent with NFW (Navarro, Frenk, and White) profiles over scales ${\lesssim} 0.15 \, {h}^{-1}$ Mpc. We find that ${\sim} 20$ per cent of the dwarf galaxy sample are satellites. This is the first measurement of the halo profiles and masses of such a comprehensive, low-mass galaxy sample. The techniques presented here pave the way for extracting and analysing even lower mass dwarf galaxies and for more finely splitting galaxies by their properties with future photometric and spectroscopic survey data.

dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Joint cosmic density reconstruction from photometric and spectroscopic samples

ABSTRACT We reconstruct the dark matter density field from spatially overlapping spectroscopic and photometric redshift catalogues through a field-level forward modelling approach. Instead of directly inferring the underlying density field, we find the best-fitting initial Gaussian fluctuations that will evolve into the observed cosmic volume. To account for the substantial uncertainty of photometric redshifts we employ a differentiable continuous Poisson process. As an initial test, we construct a mock based on the upcoming Prime Focus Spectrograph combined with photometric sample modelled on the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam. Depending on the statistic of interest, we find improvements in cosmic structure classification equivalent to 50–100 per cent more spectroscopic targets by combining relatively sparse spectroscopic with dense photometric samples.

Horowitz, B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the ESPRESSO wavelength calibration using iodine absorption cell spectra

ABSTRACT High-quality wavelength calibration is crucial for science cases like radial-velocity studies of exoplanets, the search for a possible variation of fundamental constants, and the redshift drift experiment. However, for state-of-the-art spectrographs, it has become difficult to verify the wavelength calibration on sky because no astrophysical source provides spectra with sufficiently stable or accurate wavelength information. We therefore propose to use iodine absorption cells to validate the wavelength calibration. Observing a bright and featureless star through the iodine cell emulates an astrophysical target with exactly known spectral features that can be analysed like any other science target, allowing to verify the wavelength calibration derived from the internal calibration sources and to identify systematics in the data processing. As demonstration, we temporarily installed an $\mathrm{I_2}$ absorption cell at ESPRESSO. Employing a full forward modelling approach of the $\mathrm{I_2}$ spectrum, including the instrumental line-spread function, we demonstrate wavelength calibration accuracy at the level of a few $\mathrm{m\,s^{-1}}$. We also show that wavelength measurements do depend on the geometry of the light-injection into the spectrograph fibers. This highlights the importance of probing exactly the same light path as science targets, something not possible with internal calibration sources alone. We also demonstrate excellent radial-velocity stability at the ${{< 20\, \mathrm{cm\,s^{-1}}}}$ level in a full end-to-end fashion, from sky to data product. Our study therefore showcases the great potential of absorption cells for the verification and long-term monitoring of the wavelength calibration as well as the unique insights they can provide.

Schmidt, Tobias M. (ORCID:0000000248337273)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mass dependence of halo baryon fractions from the kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich effect

ABSTRACT We detect the kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich imprint of peculiar motions of galaxy groups and clusters, using the photometric Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Surveys together with cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). We develop a comprehensive forward model based on the AbacusSummit cosmological simulations: Mock galaxy group catalogues and synthetic kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich (kSZ) maps are generated, together with a reconstructed peculiar velocity field that allows for photo-z errors, redshift-space distortions, and survey masks. We investigate possible contamination from the cosmic infrared background (CIB), finding that CIB effects are subdominant to the kSZ signal in the relevant ACT frequency channel. We then predict the kSZ signal expected when stacking CMB temperature maps around groups, taking account of their estimated radial velocities. Comparing the model with observations, we are able to constrain the total baryon fraction within haloes, as well as their internal gas profiles. We find evidence for mass dependence of the halo baryon fraction within the virial radius. The gas fraction in massive groups is consistent with the universal baryon fraction, but low-mass groups ($10^{12.5} \lesssim M\, /\, h^{-1}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot \lesssim 10^{14}$) are depleted to $0.38 \pm 0.11$ times the universal baryon fraction. We find this low virial baryon fraction to be consistent with an extended gas profile, for which the total baryon content reaches the universal value well beyond the virial radius. This conclusion is consistent with previous analyses using X-ray, kSZ, and weak lensing, and plausibly reflects energetic feedback processes from the galaxies in these haloes.

Roper, Finn A [Institute for Astronomy, University↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effect of selection – a tale of cluster mass measurement bias induced by correlation and projection

ABSTRACT Cosmology analyses using galaxy clusters by the Dark Energy Survey have recently uncovered an issue of a previously unknown selection effect affecting weak-lensing mass estimates. In this letter, we use the Illustris-TNG simulation to demonstrate that selecting on galaxy counts induces a selection effect because of projection and correlation between different observables. We compute the weak-lensing-like projected mass estimations of dark matter haloes and examine their projected subhalo counts. In the two-dimensional (2D) projected space, haloes that are measured as more massive than truth have higher subhalo counts. Thus, projection along the line of sight creates cluster observables that are correlated with cluster mass measurement deviations, which in turn creates a mass measurement bias when the clusters are selected by this correlated observable. We demonstrate that the bias is predicted in a forward model using the observable-mass measurement correlation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian quantification of observability and equation of state of twin stars

The possibility of discovering twin stars, two neutron stars (NSs) with the same mass but different radii, is usually studied in forward modelings by using a restricted number of NS matter equations of state (EOSs) encapsulating a first-order phase transition from hadronic to quark matter (QM). Informing our likelihood function with the NS radius data from GW170817 and using a metamodel with nine parameters capable of mimicking most NS EOSs available in the literature, we conduct a Bayesian quantification of the observability and underlying EOSs of twin stars. Of the accepted EOSs, between 12 and 18% yield twin stars, depending on the restrictions we place on the second branch. The possibility of twin stars remains robust even under recent observational constraints. Here, we show that many of these twin star scenarios are observable with currently available levels of accuracy in measuring NS radii. We also present the marginalized posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of every EOS parameter for each of four mass-radius correlation topologies. We find that the inferred EOS depends sensitively on not only whether twin stars are present, but also the category of twin stars, indicating that the observation of twin stars would provide a strong constraint on the underlying EOS. In particular, for two coexisting hybrid stars having QM cores at different densities, the PDF for QM speed of sound squared 𝑐$^2_{qm}$ has two peaks, one below and another above the conformal limit 𝑐$^2_{qm}$ = 1/3 predicted by perturbative QCD.

QCD in nuclear reactions↗