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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary Target Selection for the DESI Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) Sample

The DESI survey will observe more than 8 million candidate luminous red galaxies (LRGs) in the redshift range 0.3 < z < 1.0. In this work, we present a preliminary version of the DESI LRG target section developed using Legacy Surveys Data Release 8 g, r, z and W1 photometry. This selection yields a sample with a uniform surface density of ~600 deg –2 and very low predicted stellar contamination and redshift failure rates. During DESI Survey Validation, updated versions of this selection will be tested and optimized.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Twenty Years and Counting—Where are they? Practical Recommendations for Commercializing AI/ML for Intrusion Detection in the Nuclear Industry

Research and development into applications for improving equipment condition monitoring programs at nuclear facilities has been around since the 1990s. However, while the field has moved from using data-driven machine learning (ML) algorithms for detection and prediction of equipment degradation and failure to prognostic capabilities, these applications are still not widely used in the U.S. nuclear industry. Additionally, there has been significant effort in designing both data-driven and physics-based artificial intelligence (AI) and ML models for many other potential applications in the nuclear industry, including cyber intrusion detection systems (IDS). However, as the last twenty years in condition-based maintenance research has shown us, there are significant hurdles that must be overcome for deployment of IDS on plant systems. This paper provides a discussion on the practical recommendations that researchers should consider for successful adoption of AI/ML IDS in the nuclear industry.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Validation of Mechanical and Thermal Borehole Breakouts From Polyaxial Laboratory Tests to Determine Maximum Horizontal in Situ Stress

To accurately assess rock behavior in the deep subsurface, it is necessary to measure the in situ stress directions and magnitudes. The current methods for measuring the in situ stress state in the deep subsurface primarily include hydraulic fracturing tests (i.e., the minimum horizontal stress) or occasionally observing existing compressive borehole breakouts (i.e., the maximum horizontal stress) that have occurred naturally from drilling. If there are no existing compressive breakouts in a borehole, the maximum horizontal in situ stress cannot be estimated with much confidence. In response to this data gap, a new thermal breakout technology is being developed that will provide a method for thermally inducing borehole breakouts and obtaining consistent measurements of the maximum horizontal stress magnitude. This thermal breakout technology involves heating the borehole and increasing the thermoelastic compressive stress in the rock until a breakout develops, which is directly correlated to the maximum horizontal stress magnitude. In support of developing the thermal breakout technology, polyaxial laboratory tests have been performed on small-scale boreholes within rock blocks where mechanically- and thermally-induced borehole breakouts have been created. Numerical models along with the principal of superposition were created and used to analyze the polyaxial laboratory tests to predict the maximum horizontal stress, given the same data that would be obtained in an actual subsurface borehole thermal breakout test. Multiple failure criteria were used to evaluate the best prediction of the breakout onset and maximum horizontal stress. The maximum horizontal stress predictions were compared to the actual maximum horizontal stress applied at breakout using acoustic events recorded from emission sensors in the polyaxial tests. The results showed consistent results that could be used to refine the modeling approach and failure criterion that are used to make the maximum horizontal stress predictions. This study provided insight and validation for the thermal breakout stress measurement concept.

Jones, Matt↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cliff Retreat Rates Associated with a Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility in Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA

We present an analysis and interpretation of potential cliff stability at a low-level waste disposal facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, using cliff morphologic and fracture characteristics coupled with carbon-14 surface exposure dating. Our study is important as it directly bears on the licensing criteria for low-level radioactive waste sites. We find that future characteristic cliff failures will likely not breach disposal pits and shafts over the 1000-year minimum regulatory period. Further, we find, using a multivariate regression model, that slope angle and cliff face aspect are sub-equal in importance to predict regions of high risk of failure when combined with surface exposure ages and assuming that old exposure ages are most indicative of stability (instability) and therefore can aid decision making in final design implementation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atomic Energy Accuracy of Neural Network Potentials: Harnessing Pretraining and Transfer Learning

Machine learning-based interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have transformed the prediction of potential energy surfaces (PESs), achieving accuracy comparable to ab initio calculations. However, atomic energy predictions, often assumed to lack physical meaning, remain underexplored. In this study, we demonstrate that inaccuracies in atomic energy predictions reduce the robustness and transferability of Neural Network Potentials (NNPs) and atomic energy error can be masked in total energy predictions due to error cancellation. Here, we validate this finding using challenging configurations involving deformation and failure under tensile loading. By pretraining atomic energy predictions using empirical potentials and applying transfer learning with density functional theory (DFT) data, we achieve notable improvements in the accuracy of total energy, forces, and stress predictions. Furthermore, this approach enhances the robustness and transferability of NNPs, emphasizing the importance of atomic energy predictions in developing high-quality and reliable MLIPs.

Active Learning↗
DOE OSTI2020

Genetic circuit characterization by inferring RNA polymerase movement and ribosome usage

To perform their computational function, genetic circuits change states through a symphony of genetic parts that turn regulator expression on and off. Debugging is frustrated by an inability to characterize parts in the context of the circuit and identify the origins of failures. Here, we take snapshots of a large genetic circuit in different states: RNA-seq is used to visualize circuit function as a changing pattern of RNA polymerase (RNAP) flux along the DNA. Together with ribosome profiling, all 54 genetic parts (promoters, ribozymes, RBSs, terminators) are parameterized and used to inform a mathematical model that can predict circuit performance, dynamics, and robustness. The circuit behaves as designed; however, it is riddled with genetic errors, including cryptic sense/antisense promoters and translation, attenuation, incorrect start codons, and a failed gate. While not impacting the expected Boolean logic, they reduce the prediction accuracy and could lead to failures when the parts are used in other designs. Finally, the cellular power (RNAP and ribosome usage) required to maintain a circuit state is calculated. This work demonstrates the use of a small number of measurements to fully parameterize a regulatory circuit and quantify its impact on host.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attention Network Forecasts Time-to-Failure in Laboratory Shear Experiments

Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought to contain predictive information that can be used for fault failure forecasting. Here, we present a method using unsupervised classification and an attention network to forecast labquakes using AE waveform features. Our data were generated in a laboratory setting using a biaxial shearing device with granular fault gouge intended to mimic the conditions of tectonic faults. Here, we analyzed the temporal evolution of AEs generated throughout several hundred laboratory earthquake cycles. We used a Conscience Self-Organizing Map (CSOM) to perform topologically ordered vector quantization based on waveform properties. The resulting map was used to interactively cluster AEs. We examined the clusters over time to identify those with predictive ability. Finally, we used a variety of LSTM and attention-based networks to test the predictive power of the AE clusters. By tracking cumulative waveform features over the seismic cycle, the network is able to forecast the time-to-failure (TTF) of lab earthquakes. Our results show that analyzing the data to isolate predictive signals and using a more sophisticated network architecture are key to robustly forecasting labquakes. In the future, this method could be applied on tectonic faults to monitor earthquakes and augment early warning systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Photovoltaic Failures with Hidden Markov Modeling, an Unsupervised Statistical Approach

Failure detection methods are of significant interest for photovoltaic (PV) site operators to help reduce gaps between expected and observed energy generation. Current approaches for field-based fault detection, however, rely on multiple data inputs and can suffer from interpretability issues. In contrast, this work offers an unsupervised statistical approach that leverages hidden Markov models (HMM) to identify failures occurring at PV sites. Using performance index data from 104 sites across the United States, individual PV-HMM models are trained and evaluated for failure detection and transition probabilities. This analysis indicates that the trained PV-HMM models have the highest probability of remaining in their current state (87.1% to 93.5%), whereas the transition probability from normal to failure (6.5%) is lower than the transition from failure to normal (12.9%) states. A comparison of these patterns using both threshold levels and operations and maintenance (O&M) tickets indicate high precision rates of PV-HMMs (median = 82.4%) across all of the sites. Although additional work is needed to assess sensitivities, the PV-HMM methodology demonstrates significant potential for real-time failure detection as well as extensions into predictive maintenance capabilities for PV.

classification↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning for rapid prediction of lithium-ion battery-cycling protocols

Advancing lithium-ion battery technology requires the optimization of cycling protocols. A new data-driven methodology is demonstrated for rapid, accurate prediction of the cycle life obtained by new cycling protocols using a single test lasting only 3 cycles, enabling rapid exploration of cycling protocol design spaces with orders of magnitude reduction in testing time. We achieve this by combining lifetime early prediction with a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) to rapidly predict performance distributions without the need for extensive repetitive testing. The methodology is applied to a comprehensive dataset of lithium-iron-phosphate/graphite comprising 29 different fast-charging protocols. HBM alone provides high protocol-lifetime prediction performance, with 6.5% of overall test average percent error, after cycling only one battery to failure. Here, by combining HBM with a battery lifetime prediction model, we achieve a test error of 8.8% using a single 3-cycle test. In addition, the generalizability of the HBM approach is demonstrated for lithium-manganese-cobalt-oxide/graphite cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Damage of prismatic lithium‐ion cells subject to bending: Test, model, and detection

Abstract The mechanically induced internal short circuit (ISC) is one of the major safety concerns of lithium‐ion batteries. Mechanical abuse tests are often performed to evaluate the integrity and safety of lithium‐ion batteries under mechanical loadings. Except for the widely explored compression‐dominated indentation tests, bending is another typical real‐world loading condition that is tension‐dominated. To investigate the mechanical damage and ISC behavior of batteries under bending, we carried out controlled three‐point bending tests in four progressive steps on prismatic battery cells with maximum deflections ranging from 38% to 76% of the cell thickness. None of the tested cells experienced an ISC. We then conducted 3D X‐ray computed tomography (CT) scanning on the bent cells after unloading. X‐ray CT images showed three out of the four tested cells have extensive cracking in the electrode layers at the bottom side (opposite to the loading head). This indicates that cracking does not necessarily lead to an ISC under bending. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy was also measured on the bent cells and substantial changes were observed. Both the bulk resistance and charge‐transfer resistance increased significantly after bending, which could influence the battery performance and lifespan. We then developed a detailed finite (FE) element model to further investigate the mechanical deformation and failure mechanisms. The FE model successfully predicts the load–displacement response and reproduces the deformation patterns. The findings and the FE model developed in the present study provide useful insights and tools for the battery structure and crash safety design. image

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of substrate orientation and anisotropic strength on corrosion pits

The complexities of pitting corrosion and its associated pit morphologies are critical for predicting and preventing pit-related failure in materials. With the advances in computational tools, modeling of pitting corrosion has lately gained momentum. We recently developed a phase field model for 3-D pit morphology, and in the current work, the model is utilized to gain insight into the role of substrate orientation and anisotropic strength on crystallographic pits. The influence of these parameters on pit morphology and corrosion metrics such as pit volume, current, pit area, current density, and pit depth are studied. The crystallographic pit morphology changes with substrate orientation but not significantly with anisotropic strength. Finally, the anisotropic strength strongly influences the corrosion metrics whereas most corrosion metrics remain unaffected by substrate orientation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of nickel concentration and stacking fault energy on deformation mechanisms in high-purity austenitic Fe-Cr-Ni alloys

Understanding how composition affects deformation mechanisms in austenitic stainless steels is essential for developing accurate predictive models of stress-induced failures and stress corrosion cracking. Nickel (Ni), an element classified as a critical element, plays a crucial role in these processes. It is important to examine how Ni concentration influences stacking fault energy (SFE) and, consequently, the deformation mechanisms of austenitic stainless steels. However, in commercial stainless steels, the effects of other alloying elements and impurities can obscure Ni's role, complicating efforts to isolate its impact. Here, in this study, we use two high-purity Fe-Cr-Ni alloys to investigate how Ni concentration and SFE interact to alter deformation mechanisms and induce martensitic transformation. By combining in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) tensile testing and post-mortem electron microscopy with density functional theory simulations, we gain precise insights into these phenomena. We find that the Fe18Cr10Ni (wt%) alloy, with its low SFE, exhibits higher stacking fault probability, deformation-induced martensitic transformation, and a lesser increase in dislocation density with plastic strain. In contrast, the Fe18Cr14Ni (wt%) alloy, with its higher SFE, shows enhanced deformation twinning and greater dislocation density with increasing strain. These findings from high-purity ternary alloys provide valuable insights that can guide the search for alternative elements to replace Ni while achieving similar effects on phase stability and deformation behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical simulations of the Los Alamos gapstick experiment

The gapstick is a high explosive (HE) sensitivity test recently developed at Los Alamos. The experiment design was motivated by the traditional gap test and consists of a series of HE and inert pellets in a rate stick configuration. The inert pellets are made increasingly longer so that eventually the attenuated shock is unable to initiate the next HE pellet. While the gapstick is a mechanically simple experiment it poses several challenges for numerical simulation. In particular, accurately modeling the HE initiation and detonation phenomena requires a reactive burn model with sufficient mesh resolution to capture the reaction scales. In this work, the Scaled Uniform Reactive Front (SURF) and Arrhenius Wescott-Stewart-Davis (AWSD) burn models are used for simulations of a PBX 9501 (95 wt% HMX, 5% binder) gapstick. Furthermore, the material model for the inert pellet material, Polyvinylidene Fluoride (PVDF), has a direct influence on the shock propagation and a new equation of state (EOS) calibration for PVDF is developed using available Hugoniot data. Despite some challenges, the simulations are able to reasonably predict shock transit velocities and detonation failure in the gapstick.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potentials of mean force fail to describe chemical bond-breaking in solution

Many liquid phase studies assume that the potential energy surfaces of reacting molecules are the same as in the gas phase, neglecting complex solvent dynamics that can completely alter the nature of chemical reactivity. Even studies that include solvent effects typically only consider them in an average, equilibrium way as part of a potential of mean force (PMF). In this work, we use mixed quantum/classical simulations to compare how equilibrium and non-equilibrium solvent motions affect the photodissociation of a simple diatomic molecule, NaK + , in liquid tetrahydrofuran. A PMF analysis shows that as the excited-state molecule dissociates with the solvent at equilibrium, the bonding electron remains associated with K + at short bond distances but eventually localizes on Na + at the end of dissociation. When we examine non-equilibrium dynamical photodissociation trajectories, however, we find that they fall into three distinct categories: about a quarter of them have the bonding electron mainly associated with Na + , another quarter stay mainly associated with K + , and about half have the bonding electron shared roughly equally between the two ions. The results show that equilibrium PMFs cannot accurately describe the dynamics of bond-breaking chemical reactions in solution because there is insufficient time for the solvent to reach equilibrium on the time scale over which bond dissociation occurs. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the solvent coupling between the electronic energy surfaces is similar at and away from equilibrium, suggesting that other factors, such as solute velocity-driven solvent memory effects, play a more important role in explaining the failure of the equilibrium PMF to predict the non-equilibrium dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multigluon Correlations and Evidence of Saturation from Dijet Measurements at an Electron-Ion Collider

In this work, we study inclusive and diffractive dijet production in electron-proton and electron-nucleus collisions within the color glass condensate effective field theory. We compute dijet cross sections differentially in both mean dijet transverse momentum P and recoil momentum Δ , as well as the anisotropy in the relative angle between P and Δ . Our results cover a much larger kinematic range than accessible in previous computations performed in the correlation limit approximation, where it is assumed that | P | &raquo | Δ | . We validate this approximation in its range of applicability and quantify its failure for | P | ≲ | Δ | . We also predict significant target-dependent deviations from the correlation limit approximation for | P | > | Δ | and | P | ≲ Q s , which offers a straightforward test of gluon saturation and access to multigluon distributions at a future Electron-Ion Collider.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beamline Volume Relief Analysis for the PIP-II SSR2 Cryomodule at Fermilab

The beam volume of the Pre-Production Single Spoke Resonator type 2 (ppSSR2) cryomodule [1] for the Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) [2] project will be protected against over-pressurization using a burst disk. This contribution focuses on the analysis of the relief of such trapped volume during a catastrophic scenario with multiple systems failures. An analytical model, able to predict the pressure in the beam volume depending of the various boundary conditions, has been developed and will be presented along with the results.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗