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At least 253 records · Page 14

Applied Uses of MERRA Reanalyses: Current and Future Prospects

During the initial planning of the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the project was envisioned to become a tool for applied sciences and decision makers, as well as weather and climate research. MERRA was the first reanalysis to provide data at 1 hourly frequencies. After discussions with wind energy users, 50m above the surface winds were included in the data collection to begin to represent the environment at the turbine height. MERRA-2 was the first reanalysis to include interactive and assimilated aerosols. From these, PM 1, 2.5 and 10 records have been computed and contribute to the climate and health sector. The US Center for Disease Control is accessing MERRA-2 data for comparison along with their health data. MERRA-2 Extreme Indices have been computed from the high frequency data (e.g. precipitation maxima, heat waves and fire weather). These have been used to characterize the changing extremes in the United States and around the globe as well as the weather associated with the extremes. The next-generation, MERRA-21C, includes increased resolution (25km) and continues to provide innovative Earth system data. For example, a boundary layer collection will provide constant height level data starting at 100m, continuing up to 4000m. This will provide detailed information about the boundary layer processes that greatly affect the biosphere. Chemical tracers for constituents are included in the system. The ensemble data assimilation is run with 32 members, and the variance for critical variables are stored. We will explore the use of this variance as one measure of uncertainty relevant for applied uses, which has not been included in any MERRA reanalysis. We will discuss use case scenarios developed to engage with the energy and financial sectors, to better understand their needs for climate data. Prospects for further downscaling of reanalyses will also be explored.

Michael Bosilovich↗

Target contrast considerations in millimeter wave radiometry for airborne navigation

Target signal requirements for aircraft navigation systems that use radiometric receivers which map thermally emitted power radiated by terrain or power radiated by ground-based beacons are discussed. For selected millimeter wavelength bands, microwaves suffer relatively little degradation by absorption or scattering on passage through the atmosphere, despite extreme weather variations. Interest centers on 8-millimeter waves because of component availability, portability (small size), high image resolution, and all-weather capability at this wavelength. The idea of radiometric airborne navigation is introduced. Elements of radiometry, terrain radiation, and atmospheric transmission characteristics are reviewed. Data pertaining to these elements at 8 mm wavelength are collected. Calculation of radiometric contrasts is discussed for some simple models of terrain targets.

Mayer, A.↗

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with the Wintertime Barents-Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents-Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents-Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, though turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6 to 10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Turbulent heat flux↗

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation, and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Wintertime Barents–Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents–Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents–Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows that strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, although turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6–10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) or El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Arctic↗

Universal relations for neutron star 𝑓-mode and 𝑔-mode oscillations

Among the various oscillation modes of neutron stars, 𝑓- and 𝑔- modes are the most likely to be ultimately observed in binary neutron star mergers due to their relatively large coupling and shared frequencies with tidal excitations. The 𝑓-mode frequency and damping time are known to correlate in normal neutron stars with their compactness, and previous fits to hadronic stars are extended and shown to be valid for an extremely broad sampling of equations of state using a piecewise polytropic parametrization scheme for hadrons and a constant sound-speed parametrization for quark matter. Separate fits applicable to quark (self-bound) stars are improved. Much more significant correlations exist with tidal deformability, and therefore with moment of inertia and quadrupole moment. It is conclusively demonstrated that these correlations are the same for all types of stars, whether hadronic, hybrid, or pure quark, and its accuracy is quantified. A novel 1-node branch of the 𝑓-mode that occurs in low-mass hybrid stars in a narrow mass range just beyond the critical mass necessary for a phase transition to appear is identified. This 1-node branch shows the largest, but still small, deviations from the universal correlation for any configuration. It is characterized by a nonmonotonic relation between neutron star mass and 𝑓-mode frequency, in contrast to the behavior otherwise observed in normal, quark and hybrid stars. The 𝑔-mode only exists in matter with a nonbarotropic equation of state involving temperature, chemical potential or composition (such as being out of beta equilibrium), or a phase transition in barotropic matter. Here, the 𝑔-mode therefore could serve as a probe for studying phase transitions in hybrid stars. In contrast with the 𝑓-mode, 𝑔-mode frequencies do not correlate well with tidal deformability, but depend strongly on properties of the transition (the density and the magnitude of the discontinuity) at the transition. Imposing causality and maximum mass constraints, a fit involving neutron star and phase transition properties is found and the 𝑔-mode frequency is determined to have an upper bound of about 1.25 kHz. However, if the sound speed 𝑐𝑠 in the inner core at densities above the phase transition density is restricted to 𝑐$^{2}_{𝑠}$ ≤1/3, 𝑔-mode frequencies can only reach about 0.8 kHz, which are significantly lower than 𝑓-mode frequencies (1.3–2.8 kHz). 𝑔-mode gravitational wave damping times are found to be extremely long, >10 4 s (102 s) in the inner core with 𝑐$^{2}_{𝑠}$ ≤1/3 (1), in comparison with 𝑓-mode damping times (0.1–1 s).

Composition of astronomical objects↗

Electromagnetic Counterparts to Black Hole Mergers

During the final moments of a binary black hole (BH) merger, the gravitational wave (GW) luminosity of the system is greater than the combined electromagnetic (EM) output of the entire observable universe. However, the extremely weak coupling between GWs and ordinary matter makes these waves very difficult to detect directly. Fortunately, the inspirating BH system will interact strongly-on a purely Newtonian level-with any surrounding material in the host galaxy, and this matter can in turn produce unique EM signals detectable at Earth. By identifying EM counterparts to GW sources, we will be able to study the host environments of the merging BHs, in turn greatly expanding the scientific yield of a mission like LISA. Here we present a comprehensive review of the recent literature on the subject of EM counterparts, as well as a discussion of the theoretical and observational advances required to fully realize the scientific potential of the field.

Schnittman, Jeremy D.↗

Household energy resilience in extreme weather events: An investigation of energy service importance, HVAC usage behaviors, and willingness to pay

Household energy resilience, particularly maintaining essential energy services within an acceptable and affordable level, is critical during extreme weather events (e.g., winter storms, heat waves) with power shortages or outages. However, the research on the importance and acceptable compromise levels of energy services, HVAC usage behavior changes, and willingness to pay (WTP) for energy services during disasters is limited. Therefore, this study investigates the importance and compromise of household energy services, HVAC usage behaviors, and WTP, as three key dimensions of household energy resilience, in both normal days and disaster scenarios through surveys (n=485). First, 12 common residential end-uses are grouped into high, mid, and low-priority services using hierarchical clustering, in which high-priority services (perceived as important and un-compromisable) include food cooking and storage (refrigerator and freezer) and thermal comfort (space heating and cooling), mid-priority services involve water heating and lighting, while low-priority services are mostly related to entertainment and housework (e.g., TV, laundry). Also, HVAC use patterns demonstrate that occupants become more energy conservative during disasters, e.g., reducing durations of running HVAC and adjusting temperature setpoints to save energy. In terms of energy cost, approximately 60% of respondents are willing to pay more to maintain energy services during disasters, although only 13% are prepared to pay over double the normal energy prices. The regression models further reveal that household energy resilience varies across different sociodemographic groups (e.g., age, income, family size) and is impacted by disaster experience and beliefs in clean energy and climate. In conclusion, these research findings provide important perspectives to understand household energy resilience and inform measures for disaster adaptation of households in extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Search for Early High-Energy Afterglows in BATSE Gamma-Ray Bursts

The scope of this project was to perform a detailed search for the early high-energy afterglow component of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) in the BATSE GRB data archive. GRBs are believed to be the product of shock waves generated in a relativistic outflow from the demise of extremely massive stars and/or binary neutron star mergers. The outflow undeniably encounters the ambient medium of the progenitor object and another shock wave is set up. A forward shock propagates into the medium and a reverse shock propagates through the ejecta. This "external" shock dissipates the kinetic energy of the ejecta in the form of radiation via synchrotron losses and slows the outflow eventually to a non-relativistic state. Radiation from the forward external shock is therefore expected to be long-lived, lasting days, weeks, and even months. This radiation is referred to as the 'afterglow'.

Giblin, Timothy W.↗

Comparison of Coupled and Uncoupled Modeling of Floating Wind Farms with Shared Anchors

As design options for floating wind farms continue to be explored, shared (or multiline) anchors that secure mooring lines from multiple turbines remain a promising technology that can potentially reduce the number of anchors and overall mooring costs. This study evaluates two methods for analyzing the loads on shared anchors: one in which floating offshore wind turbines are simulated individually (using the software OpenFAST), and one in which an entire floating wind farm is simulated collectively (using the software FAST.Farm). A three-line shared anchor is evaluated for multiple loading scenarios in deep water, using the International Energy Agency 15 MW turbine on the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. While the two methods produce broadly comparable results, the coupled wave loading on platforms within the farm results in wave force cancellations and amplifications that decrease multiline force directional ranges and increase multiline force extreme values (up to 7%) and standard deviations (up to 11%) for wave-driven load cases. The inclusion of wakes in FAST.Farm also reduces the net load on the shared anchor due to the velocity deficit, leading to larger differences between OpenFAST and FAST.Farm (up to 3% difference in mean loads) for load cases with operational turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantum beats in two-color photoionization to the spin-orbit split continuum of Ar

We report a study of the quantum beats in two-color photoionization of argon. An attosecond extreme ultraviolet pulse train prepares an electronic wave packet of definite odd parity, with total angular momentum J = 1, targeting the states between 14.0 and 14.5 eV from the ground state. Two-photon ionization of this wave packet with a tunable infrared probe pulse makes the constituent states interfere in both continuum channels, corresponding to the core angular momenta j c = 1/2 and 3/2, respectively. We analyze photoelectron spectrograms as a function of the time delay of the probe pulse and identify oscillations due to several pairs of states through Fourier decomposition. We observe phase differences between the corresponding beat signals in the two spin-orbit split continua. Comparison of theoretical simulations with the experimental measurements allows us to interpret the amplitudes and phases of ionization signals. Furthermore, we express the observed phase differences in terms of the off-diagonal elements of the short-range scattering matrix and the dipole matrix elements to the continuum eigenchannels.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Exploring Multiscale Earth System and Human-Earth System Dynamics in the Puget Sound Region

With its mountain-to-coast hydroclimate, strong influence of Pacific Ocean weather systems and climate patterns, and unique land use history with strong rural-to-urban gradients, the Puget Sound region is a natural laboratory for studying a number of complex processes in, and interactions among, different Earth and human systems. A 1-year scoping study was initiated by the Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling program of the Department of Energy’s Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research. It was intended to elucidate and highlight the rich opportunities Puget Sound offers to advance our understanding of and ability to simulate Earth system changes and human-Earth system interactions. A literature review, multi-day community workshop, and external input were used to develop this scoping study report. The report first summarizes scientific understanding and knowledge gaps associated with major regional systems, including atmosphere and climate, the land surface, coastal and marine processes, and human systems, as well as how these systems are changing over time. It then highlights some of the most notable extreme events in the region, including heat waves, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and wildfires. Finally, key research opportunities for Earth and environmental systems modeling in, above, and around Puget Sound are highlighted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relativistic Alfvén Waves Entering Charge-starvation in the Magnetospheres of Neutron Stars

Instabilities in a neutron star can generate Alfvén waves in its magnetosphere. Propagation along the curved magnetic field lines strongly shears the wave, boosting its electric current j A . We derive an analytic expression for the evolution of the wavevector k and the growth of j A . In the strongly sheared regime, j A may exceed the maximum current j0 that can be supported by the background e ± plasma. We investigate these charge-starved waves, first using a simplified two-fluid analytic model, then with first-principles kinetic simulations. We find that the Alfvén wave is able to propagate successfully even when κ ≡ j A /j 0 $\ll$ 1. It sustains j A by compressing and advecting the plasma along the magnetic field lines with an increasing Lorentz factor, γ ≳ κ 1/2 . The simulations show how plasma instabilities lead to gradual dissipation of the wave energy. Our results suggest that an extremely high charge-starvation parameter κ ≳ 10 4 may be required in order for this mechanism to power the observed fast radio bursts (FRBs) from SGR 1935+2154. However, cosmological FRBs with much higher luminosities are unlikely to be a result of charge-starvation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The response of the zonally averaged circulation to stratospheric ozone reductions

The effects of various ozone density reductions of the zonally averaged circulation are evaluated with a numerical quasi-geostrophic model. If the ozone perturbations are confined to the polar regions and are minuscule on a global basis as was characteristic of the August 1972 solar proton event, then the calculations indicate a negligible effect on the mean circulation. For global ozone perturbations by predicted halocarbon pollution, about 10% reduction in the zonal jet strength and less than a 5% change in global mean stratospheric temperature are calculated. Large, uniform ozone reductions (above 50%) produce significant effects on the mean circulation: a substantial collapse of the stratosphere due to cooler temperatures, and a weak polar night jet. The reflection and transmission of quasi-stationary planetary waves in the middle atmosphere are computed to be insensitive to solar activity as extreme as the August 1972 solar proton event. It thus seems improbable that planetary waves are a viable mechanism for solar-weather interactions that involve perturbations of the zonally averaged circulation by ozone density reductions.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗

AVIRIS calibration and application in coastal oceanic environments - Tracers of soluble and particulate constituents of the Tampa Bay coastal plume

AVIRIS is a testbed for future spacecraft sensors (such as HIRIS and MODIS) planned for the Earth Observing System. Model-derived absorption coefficients at 415 nm, a(415), and back-scattering coefficients at 671 nm, b sub b (671) for Tampa Bay waters were used to create images from AVIRIS data of the dissolved component of a(415) due to gelbstoff, a sub g (415), and salinity. Images of a sub g (415), salinity, and b sub b (671) were used to depict the distribution of dissolved and particulate constituents, respectively, for Tampa Bay plume during late, ebb-tidal conditions. Salinity covaried with a sub g (415), which provided a means of mapping salinity from the a sub g (415) imagery. The concentration of suspended particles, as inferred from b sub g (671), was extremely variable in the shallow regions where waves and currents interacted. Pollutants covarying with fresh water or suspended sediments can be mapped from a sub g (415) and b sub b (671) images, respectively.

Carder, K. L.↗

Coronal heating, nanoflares and MHD turbulence

Coronal heating is at the origin of the X-ray emission and mass loss from the sun and many other stars. While different scenarios have been proposed to explain the heating of magnetically confined and open regions of the corona, they must all rely on the transfer, storage and dissipation of the abundant energy present in photospheric motions. Here we focus on theories which rely on magnetic fields and electric currents both for the energy transfer and storage in the corona. The dissipation of this energy, whether in the form of reconnection in current sheets (nanoflare?) or the dissipation of MHD waves, depends crucially on the development of extremely small scales in the coronal magnetic field, where kinetic effects are likely to be fundamental. The question of whether coronal heating and flares may be viewed respectively as the macroscopic, low-energy average and the high-energy, temporally intermittent aspect of the same underlying driven, dissipative, turbulent system is also addressed, with emphasis placed on the main observational and theoretical stumbling blocks in the way of a confinement or disproof of such a conjecture.

Velli, M.↗

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave I pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach to determine significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗

Mechanistic Studies of Combustion and Structure Formation During Synthesis of Advanced Materials

Combustion in a variety of heterogeneous systems, leading to the synthesis of advanced materials, is characterized by high temperatures (2000-3500 K) and heating rates (up to 10(exp 6) K/s) at and ahead of the reaction front. These high temperatures generate liquids and gases which are subject to gravity-driven flow. The removal of such gravitational effects is likely to provide increased control of the reaction front, with a consequent improvement in control of the microstructure of the synthesized products. Thus, microgravity (mu-g) experiments lead to major advances in the understanding of fundamental aspects of combustion and structure formation under the extreme conditions of the combustion synthesis (CS) wave. In addition, the specific features of microgravity environment allow one to produce unique materials, which cannot be obtained under terrestrial conditions. The current research is a logic continuation of our previous work on investigations of the fundamental phenomena of combustion and structure formation that occur at the high temperatures achieved in a CS wave. Our research is being conducted in three main directions: 1) Microstructural Transformations during Combustion Synthesis of Metal-Ceramic Composites. The studies are devoted to the investigation of particle growth during CS of intermetallic-ceramic composites, synthesized from nickel, aluminum, titanium, and boron metal reactants. To determine the mechanisms of particle growth, the investigation varies the relative amount of components in the initial mixture to yield combustion wave products with different ratios of solid and liquid phases, under 1g and mu-g conditions; 2) Mechanisms of Heat Transfer during Reactions in Heterogeneous Media. Specifically, new phenomena of gasless combustion wave propagation in heterogeneous media with porosity higher than that achievable in normal gravity conditions, are being studied. Two types of mixtures are investigated: clad powders, where contact between reactants occurs within each particle, and mixtures of elemental powders, where interparticle contacts are important for the reaction; and 3) Mechanistic Studies of Phase Separation in Combustion of Thermite Systems. Studies are devoted to experiments on thermite systems (metal oxide-reducing metal) where phase separation processes occur to produce alloys with tailored compositions and properties. The separation may be either gravity-driven or due to surface forces, and systematic studies to elucidate the true mechanism are being conducted. The knowledge obtained will be used to find the most promising ways of controlling the microstructure and properties of combustion-synthesized materials. Low-gravity experiments are essential to create idealized an environment for insights into the physics and chemistry of advanced material synthesis processes.

Varma, A.↗

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave 1 pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach for determining significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗