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DOE OSTI2021

Recovery of Forest Structure Following Large-Scale Windthrows in the Northwestern Amazon

The dynamics of forest recovery after windthrows (i.e., broken or uprooted trees by wind) are poorly understood in tropical forests. The Northwestern Amazon (NWA) is characterized by a higher occurrence of windthrows, greater rainfall, and higher annual tree mortality rates (~2%) than the Central Amazon (CA). We combined forest inventory data from three sites in the Iquitos region of Peru, with recovery periods spanning 2, 12, and 22 years following windthrow events. Study sites and sampling areas were selected by assessing the windthrow severity using remote sensing. At each site, we recorded all trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 10 cm along transects, capturing the range of windthrow severity from old-growth to highly disturbed (mortality > 60%) forest. Across all damage classes, tree density and basal area recovered to >90% of the old-growth values after 20 years. Aboveground biomass (AGB) in old-growth forest was 380 (±156) Mg ha -1 . In extremely disturbed areas, AGB was still reduced to 163 (±68) Mg ha -1 after 2 years and 323 (± 139) Mg ha -1 after 12 years. This recovery rate is ~50% faster than that reported for Central Amazon forests. The faster recovery of forest structure in our study region may be a function of its higher productivity and adaptability to more frequent and severe windthrows. These varying rates of recovery highlight the importance of extreme wind and rainfall on shaping gradients of forest structure in the Amazon, and the different vulnerabilities of these forests to natural disturbances whose severity and frequency are being altered by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

DOE OSTI2024

Why the US Needs an Enduring Plutonium Critical Assembly

Jezebel (operated from 1954-1977) has been the primary experiment for fast 239 Pu nuclear data validation for the last 70 years. Validation has included not only k eff , but also spectral indicies, Rossi-α, reactivity coefficients, and neutron leakage spectra. While this has been incredibly valuable to the community, there are three major issues. The first issue is that documentation on many of these experiments were lacking, leading to large uncertainties or (even worse) incorrect assumptions. The second issue is that while there have been many advances in research, there is no way to test those new advances today. The last issue is that since the assembly only operated for 23 years (and at time when 30 other critical assemblies were operating at the same facility and nuclear weapons testing was occurring), there were limited opportunities to observe how any system parameters changed as a function of time. Note that this work is not suggesting that a "Jezebel re placement" used for a limited experiment campaign would have great value. A new enduring (100 year target) plutonium (Pu) assembly with simple geometry and low uncertainties, however, would be extremely valuable. Such a capability would have a transformative impact on many research areas including nuclear data validation, analytical methods validation, dosimetry, reactor kinetics, and materials. The need for a new plutonium assembly is not new: it has been in the DOE Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) Mission and Vision for over 10 years and was also the top priority established at the 2022 National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) Futures meeting. This work will discuss how such a new capability would help ensure that the US retains international leadership in plutonium research. Last, a brief overview of Lilith, a project aimed to design a new enduring plutonium assembly for operation at the NCERC will be given.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Oxygenated Molecules measured with a Nitrate Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer

These files contain selected oxygenated compounds detected by chemical ionization mass spectrometry with nitrate reagent ion. Detected compounds were grouped by volatility and the time series of the most intense ions in each volatility class are provided here. Volatility (C*) in units of μg m^-3 was calculated using log_10(C*)=(n_ref -n_C)*b_C - (n_O - 3*n_N)*b_O - 2*(((n_O - 3n_N)*n_C) / (n_C + n_O - 3*n_N))*b_CO - n_N* b_N where n_ref = 25, b_c = 0.475m b_O = 0.2, b_N = -0.5, b_CO = 0.9, n_C is the number of carbon atoms in the ion formula, n_O is the number of oxygen atoms in the ion formula, and n_N is the number of nitrogen atoms in the ion formula. Volatility was calculated for each formula (with the nitrate anion excluded) and compounds were assigned into extremely low volatility (ELVOCs, C* < 10^−4.5 μg m^-3), low volatility (LVOCs, 10^−4.5 μg m^-3 ≤ C* < 10^−0.5 μg m^-3), or semi-volatile (SVOCs, 10^−0.5 μg m^-3 ≤ C* < 10^2.5 μg m^-3) bins. All ions were assumed to be detected with a collision-limited sensitivity and thus represent lower bound values. Values are reported as parts per trillion by volume mixing ratio.

Extremely low-volatility organic compounds↗

DOE OSTI2026

Steric augmentation of three-coordinate Cu( I ) β-diketiminate isocyanide chromophores to achieve microsecond excited-state lifetime

Copper(I) complexes are promising alternatives to noble metal-based photosensitizers. A recently developed class of three-coordinate copper(I) charge-transfer chromophores, pairing β-diketiminate ligands with aryl isocyanides, exhibits excited-state lifetimes that are responsive to the steric profile of the isocyanide, reaching a value of nearly 300 nanoseconds when a substituted m-terphenyl isocyanide was used. In this work, we show that extreme steric augmentation of the β-diketiminate and m-terphenyl isocyanide ligands can lead to further improvements in excited-state lifetime, with one example surpassing 1 µs. This study includes a series of eight compounds of the general formula Cu(RNacNac)(CN-Ar X2 ), where RNacNac is the substituted β-diketiminate and CN-Ar X2 is the substituted m-terphenyl isocyanide. All eight compounds are crystallographically characterized, and their excited-state properties are thoroughly evaluated by a combination of steady-state and time-resolved photoluminescence studies. This combined structural/photophysical approach unveils a correlation between common steric parameters, derived from buried volume (%V bur ) and solid angle analysis, and the excited-state lifetime. Our investigation reveals that the steric profile of the β-diketiminate has a much larger impact on the steric profile and lifetime, whereas the m-terphenyl isocyanide substituents have an unsystematic and subtle influence on these two correlated parameters. Nevertheless, judicious pairing of the two ligands is critical for achieving long excited-state lifetimes.

Kumar, Ashish [University of Houston, TX (United S↗

DOE OSTI2023

Novel features of attractors and transseries in nonconformal Bjorken flows

In this work we investigate the impact of conformal symmetry breaking on hydrodynamization of a far-from-equilibrium fluid. We find a new kind of transseries solutions for the nonconformal hydrodynamic equations of a longitudinal boost invariant expanding plasma. The new transseries solutions unveil a rich physical structure which arises due to the interplay of different physical scales. In the perfect fluid case the nonconformal speed of sound slows down the cooling of the temperature due to the emergence of logarithmic corrections that depends on the mass of the particle. Further, these terms propagate into the perturbative and nonperturbative sectors of the transseries once viscous corrections are included. The logarithmic mass contributions increase the asymptotic value of the Knudsen number while decreasing the damping rate of the transient nonhydrodynamic modes and thus, yielding to an extremely slow hydrodynamization process where flow lines merge to their forward attractor at extremely late times. The early time free streaming expansion is modified and receives logarithmic mass corrections induced by the shear-bulk couplings. The global flow structure and numerical analyses carried out in our work demonstrate the existence of local attraction at early and late times for the shear viscous tensor and bulk viscous pressure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lone-Electron-Pair Micelles Strengthen Bond Anharmonicity in MnPb16Sb14S38 Complex Sulfosalt Leading to Ultra-Low Thermal Conductivity

Designing crystalline solids in which intrinsic extremely low lattice thermal conductivity mainly arises from its unique bonding nature rather than structure complexity and/or atomic disorder could promote thermal energy manipulation and utilization for applications ranging from thermoelectric energy conversion to thermal barrier coatings. Here, we report an extremely low lattice thermal conductivity of ~0.34 W m-1 K-1 at 300 K in the new complex sulfosalt MnPb16Sb14S38. We attribute the ultra-low lattice thermal conductivity to a synergistic combination of scattering mechanisms involving (1) strong bond anharmonicity in various structural building units, owing to the presence of stereoactive lone-electron-pair (LEP) micelles, and (2) phonon scattering at the interfaces between building units of increasing size and complexity. Remarkably, low-temperature heat capacity measurement revealed a Cp value of 0.206 J g-1 K-1 at T > 300 K, which is 22% lower than the Dulong-Petit value (0.274 J g-1 K-1). Further analysis of the Cp data and sound velocity (ν = 1834 m/s) measurement yielded Debye temperature values of 161 K and 187 K, respectively. Here, the resulting Grüneisen parameter, γ = 1.65, further supports strong bond anharmonicity as the dominant mechanism responsible for the observed extremely low lattice thermal conductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Extended Applications of Subgrid Representation in the 2D/1D Method

Recent efforts in MPACT have focused on improving the performance of the 2D/1D subplane implementation to help target computational performance goals. Here, we build on previous efforts that targeted the use of subgrid treatments to improve the accuracy of control rod representation, presenting three additional applications of subgrid treatments with the goal of reducing the computational burden of simulations. These subgrid applications include treatment of spacer grids, thermal feedback, and axial reflector material representation. With these approaches, a single method of characteristics (MOC) plane can contain several different materials axially that are represented explicitly via subgrids on the coarse mesh finite difference (CMFD) mesh but are axially homogenized on the MOC mesh. This allows for a substantial reduction in the number of MOC planes needed in the calculation through the introduction of an approximate treatment, particularly with regard to the self-shielded cross sections and MOC-informed radial current coupling coefficients in CMFD. Several test problems ranging from single rod to quarter core are used to assess the solution accuracy and performance of these various subgrid representations. Overall, the accuracy of the approximations seems very reasonable, with extremely small differences in eigenvalue observed and maximum pin power errors in the 0.5% to 1.0% range. Several cases show substantial value in the compromise between accuracy and computational performance. Others highlight the new computational hurdles that future research will aim to resolve.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Chemical Composition of Extreme-velocity Stars* †

Abstract Little is known about the origin of the fastest stars in the Galaxy. Our understanding of the chemical evolution history of the Milky Way and surrounding dwarf galaxies allows us to use the chemical composition of a star to investigate its origin and to say whether it was formed in situ or was accreted. However, the fastest stars, the hypervelocity stars, are young and massive and their chemical composition has not yet been analyzed. Though it is difficult to analyze the chemical composition of a massive young star, we are well versed in the analysis of late-type stars. We have used high-resolution ARCES/3.5 m Apache Point Observatory, MIKE/Magellan spectra to study the chemical details of 15 late-type hypervelocity star candidates. With Gaia EDR3 astrometry and spectroscopically determined radial velocities we found total velocities with a range of 274–520 km s −1 and mean value of 381 km s −1 . Therefore, our sample stars are not fast enough to be classified as hypervelocity stars, and are what is known as extreme-velocity stars. Our sample has a wide iron abundance range of −2.5 ≤ [Fe/H] ≤ −0.9. Their chemistry indicates that at least 50% of them are accreted extragalactic stars, with iron-peak elements consistent with prior enrichment by sub-Chandrasekhar mass Type Ia supernovae. Without indication of binary companions, their chemical abundances and orbital parameters indicate that they are the accelerated tidal debris of disrupted dwarf galaxies.

Reggiani, Henrique (ORCID:0000000165336179)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surviving nanoscale interfacial stability in extreme thermal expansion contrast Zn(CN) 2 -epoxy resin matrix composites

Here, we report the remarkable stability at the nanoscale matrix-filler interface in a series of overall low coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) zinc cyanide (ZC)/epoxy resin composites. These interfaces demonstrate the stability of highly contrasting materials. These composites are designed to optimize the properties of both materials: epoxy resins are valued for their high strength, superb chemical resistance, low dielectric properties, and adhesive abilities. ZC, a model flexible framework, exhibits negative thermal expansion (NTE) behavior and compensates for the epoxy resin’s detrimentally large thermal expansion values. Filled resins minimize the native 65 ppm/°C CTE values to 19 ppm/° C over a wide temperature range while maintaining linearity, yielding composites compatible with typical metal and ceramic substrates’—commonly bonded to the resin— 0–20 ppm/° C CTE values. Additionally, with significant intrinsic differences in the materials, we use wide-angle X-ray diffraction and atomic force microscopy to elucidate thermal movement. The ZC/epoxy interface is surprisingly resilient over 1,000 cycles between -55° C and 75° C, extremes typical to aerospace applications. Further, we show that the resin viscosity remains less than 21 Pa*s at up to 30 vol% ZC, an important consideration for workability. We also discuss settling distribution, glass transition temperature, flexural strength, and longevity. All results point favorably towards practical implementation in low thermal expansion application needs: filling the gap in component design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Machine Learning based Approach of Estimating Equivalent Circuit Model Parameters at Different SoCs of Li-ion Batteries from Voltage Relaxation

Abstract: In this study, an approach of estimating the equivalent circuit model (ECM) parameters for Li-ion batteries (LIBs) is proposed based on the voltage value at different intervals while relaxing the LIB after discharge. The typical approach for estimating ECM parameters of a LIB is to conduct electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements at different frequencies and fit them to a predefined circuit model, which requires additional measuring arrangements and specialized devices. The proposed methodology utilizes four different voltages at 0s, 60s, 360s, and 1800s alongside the specific state of charge (SoC) value for a specific constant discharge current value of ~1C until the relaxation stage to train and evaluate three regression-based machine learning models— Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—for estimating the ECM parameters of the selected model. Bayesian optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance for all the regressor models, among which, the GPR provided the best performance with the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of less than 4x10-4 on average for the resistive components and less than 0.27 for capacitive components with excellent R2 scores. The simplicity of the approach enables it to eliminate the need for sophisticated measuring equipment and computation power.

Sagar, Md. Samiul [The University of Alabama (UA)]↗

DOE OSTI2023

A New Paradigm for Observing and Modeling of Air-Sea Interactions to Advance Earth System Prediction

The protection of people, property, and environmental resources from extreme weather, seasonal patterns, and climate change drives the need for predictions of weather, ocean, and climate patterns that have skill and value at timescales longer than traditional 1-10-day forecasts, including outlooks spanning weeks to decades. Advancing Earth System Prediction (ESP) skill at this range of timescales requires improved observations, understanding, and modeling of the processes in the ocean boundary layer, the atmospheric boundary layer, and their interface. A new way of referring to this coupled system is the Air-Sea Transition Zone (ASTZ). The report that follows is framed by the paradigm that the ASTZ is a single entity that regulates the flow of energy and matter between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ASTZ is thus the medium through which the ocean and atmosphere respond to and influence one another across their often disparate scales of variability. ASTZ modeling, observing, and understanding needs are particularly acute because very few measurements exist over oceans, and even fewer span the entire ASTZ, even though oceans cover 70% of Earth’s surface and are the source of most of the rain and snow that falls on both the land and the oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Al-rich AlGaN high electron mobility transistor gate metallization study up to 600 °C in air

Here we report a comparative study of three rectifying gate metals, W, Pd, and Pt/Au, on ultrawide bandgap Al 0.86 Ga 0.14 N barrier/Al 0.7 Ga 0.3 N channel high electron mobility transistors for use in extreme temperatures. The transistors were electrically characterized from 30 to 600 °C in air. Of the three gate metals, the Pt/Au stack exhibited the smallest change in threshold voltage (0.15 V, or 9% change between the 30 and 600 °C values, and a maximum change of 42%), the highest on/off current ratio (1.5 × 10 6 ) at 600 °C, and a modest forward gate leakage current (0.39 mA/mm for a 3,V gate bias) at 600 °C. These favorable results showcase AlGaN channel high electron mobility transistors' ability to operate in extreme temperature environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cosmological Magnetic Fields from Primordial Kerr-Newman Black Holes

The origin of our universe's cosmological magnetic fields remains a mystery. In this study, we consider whether these magnetic fields could have been generated in the early universe by a population of charged, spinning primordial black holes. To this end, we calculate the strength of the magnetic fields generated by this population, and describe their evolution up to the current epoch. We find that extremal black holes in the mass range $ M \sim 10^{28} -10^{36} \, {\rm g}$ could potentially produce magnetic fields with present day values as large as $B \sim 10^{-20} - 10^{-15} \, {\rm G}$. While we remain largely agnostic as to the origin of these spinning, charged black holes, we do briefly discuss how new physics may have induced a chemical potential which could have briefly maintained the black holes in an electrically charged state in the early universe.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Influence of data uncertainty on cold season threshold-based climate indices

Climate indices are used to reduce the complex climate system and its changes to simple measures. The data basis – whether observational data or climate model data – to which the climate indices are applied, is usually subject to uncertainties. For threshold-based climate indices, the data uncertainty influences the threshold value, and, hence, the uncertainty can influence the values for the climate index. What the actual impacts of these uncertainties are on threshold-based climate indices is examined in this paper. The focus is not only on the climate model uncertainty, but also on the observational data uncertainty. The general sensitivity of each of the chosen climate indices to arbitrary changes in the threshold is studied. This shows a higher sensitivity of indices assessing extremes (ice days, heavy precipitation days) to changes in the threshold than indices that integrate a quantity over a given time interval (coldsum, consecutive days). For assessing an ensemble of climate model data with respect to their ability to reproduce the index values for current climate, the reference data uncertainty is applied to the chosen threshold-based climate indices by changing their threshold value by its corresponding uncertainty. It is shown that the climate model uncertainty can be within the range of the reference data uncertainty. When using threshold-based climate indices to assess changes in future climate periods, uncertainties should always be taken into account and ideally corrected in an appropriate way. This is especially important for indices that assess extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gemini Planet Imager Spectroscopy of the Dusty Substellar Companion HD 206893 B

We present new near-infrared Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) spectroscopy of HD 206893 B, a substellar companion orbiting within the debris disk of its F5V star. The J, H, K1, and K2 spectra from GPI demonstrate the extraordinarily red colors of the object, confirming it as the reddest substellar object observed to date. The significant flux increase throughout the infrared presents a challenging atmosphere to model with existing grids. Best-fit values vary from 1200 to 1800 K for effective temperature and from 3.0 to 5.0 for log(g), depending on which individual wavelength band is fit and which model suite is applied. The extreme redness of the companion can be partially reconciled by invoking a high-altitude layer of submicron dust particles, similar to dereddening approaches applied to the peculiar red field L dwarf population. However, reconciling the HD 206893 B spectra with even those of the reddest low-gravity L dwarf spectra still requires the contribution of additional atmospheric dust, potentially due to the debris disk environment in which the companion resides. Orbit fitting from 4 yr of astrometric monitoring is consistent with a ∼30 yr period, an orbital inclination of 147°, and a semimajor axis of 10 au, well within the estimated disk inner radius of ∼50 au. As one of a very few substellar companions imaged interior to a circumstellar disk, the properties of this system offer important dynamical constraints on companion–disk interaction and provide a benchmark for substellar and planetary atmospheric study.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Emulating climate extreme indices

We use simple pattern scaling and time-shift to emulate changes in a set of climate extreme indices under future scenarios, and evaluate the emulators' accuracy. We propose a metric for the error in emulation in the context of initial condition ensembles, to specifically characterize the role of internal variability in the emulation performance. Our metric separates systematic emulation errors from unavoidable discrepancies between emulated and target values due to internal variability. We compute the metricis at grid-point scale, and we show geographically resolved results, or aggregate them at global scale. We demonstrate the use of our error metric in the emulation of a suite of temperature and precipitation extreme indices. We test and compare simple pattern scaling and time-shift using a range of trajectories spanning targets inspired by the Paris agreement -- warming to 1.5C and 2.0C from the pre-industrial baseline -- and two of the longer-established trajectories, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. With this suite of scenarios we can test the effects on the performance of the size of the temperature gap between emulation origin and target. We find that for most indices emulation the dominant source of discrepancy is internal variability. For at least one index, however, counting exceedances of a high temperature threshold, significant portions of the globally aggregated discrepancy and its regional pattern originate from the systematic emulation error. This error exceeds internal variability of both the target and the emulated quantities in large coherent regions at low latitudes, and the explanation can be found in the differential behavior of temperature distributions across latitudes. The metric also highlights a fundamental difference in the two methods related to the simulation of internal variability, which is dampened significantly by simple pattern scaling. This aspect is of consequence when using these methods for specific applications, where preserving variability for uncertainty quantification is deemed important. With this study we offer our metric as a diagnostic tool, facilitating the formulation of scientific hypotheses on the reasons for the error. In the meantime, we show that for many impact relevant indices by now traditional emulation techniques can be accurate within the variations unavoidably introduced by internal variability, establishing the fundamental condition for using their emulation in impact modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗