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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

What are hot and what are not in an urban landscape: quantifying and explaining the land surface temperature pattern in Beijing, China

Understanding how landscape components affect the urban heat islands is crucial for urban ecological planning and sustainable development. The purpose of this research was to quantify the spatial pattern of land surface temperatures (LSTs) and associated heat fluxes in relation to land-cover types in Beijing, China, using portable infrared thermometers, thermal infrared imagers, and the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer. The spatial differences and the relationships between LSTs and the hierarchical landscape structure were analyzed with in situ observations of surface radiation and heat fluxes. Large LST differences were found among various land-use/land-cover types, urban structures, and building materials. Within the urban area, the mean LST of urban impervious surfaces was about 6–12°C higher than that of the urban green space. LSTs of built-up areas were on average 3–6°C higher than LSTs of rural areas. The observations for surface radiation and heat fluxes indicated that the differences were caused by different fractions of sensible heat or latent heat flux in net radiation. LSTs decreased with increasing elevation and normalized difference vegetation index. Variations in building materials and urban structure significantly influenced the spatial pattern of LSTs in urban areas. By contrast, elevation and vegetation cover are the major determinants of the LST pattern in rural areas. In summary, to alleviate urban heat island intensity, urban planners and policy makers should pay special attention to the selection of appropriate building materials, the reasonable arrangement of urban structures, and the rational design of landscape components.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable discrepancy checker and diagnosis for digital Twin-based supervisory control system

By virtually representing a physical object and process, a digital twin (DT) enables optimal autonomous operations by combining classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems. A DT’s values depend on how well models estimate quantities of interest and on how uncertainty is handled. Moreover, DTs often combine physics-based and data-driven models with mixed fidelities, where classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) struggles with many sources of uncertainty and real-time constraints. Here, this work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system. The tool is developed using metadata from an automated DT development process to learn correlations between sources of uncertainties and outcomes. During operation, it compares predictions with measurements, attributes discrepancies to dominant sources, and recommends parameter and configuration updates. We verify the workflow on a synthetic temperature-control problem and deploy it on a virtual Thermal Energy Delivery System, reducing mismatch and improving control robustness.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil fertility management for sustainable Miscanthus × giganteus production: Increased tiller weight from nitrogen management explains yield gains in aged miscanthus

Aging-related yield decline in Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) remains a major constraint to sustainable biomass production. This study evaluated how nitrogen (N) management and soil fertility influence yield-component traits and productivity in aging miscanthus. Trials were conducted at two sites established in 2008 at the University of Illinois Energy Farm, Urbana, IL. (i) The Sun Grant trial received 0, 60, and 120 kg N ha −1 annually until 2015. Starting 2021, half of each plot received 60 or 120 kg N ha −1 , resulting in six legacy-contemporary treatments: 0N–0N, 0N–120N, 60N–0N, 60N–60N, 120N–0N, 120N–120N. (ii) The Energy Farm trial remained unfertilized until 2014, when one half of each plot received 56 kg N ha −1 , forming two treatments: 0N–0N, 0N–56N. Sun Grant trial results showed N fertilization increased tiller density (tillers m −2 ) and tiller weight (g tiller −1 ) in juvenile to early-mature miscanthus (2011–2015). After N withdrawal, both traits declined (20 % and 40 %), though legacy effects persisted in tiller weight in the aging stands (2020–2023). Contemporary N had little effect on tiller density but increased tiller weight by 34 %–77 %, resulting in 23 %–106 % higher machine-harvested biomass yield in 0–120N, 60-60N, and 120-120N plots. At the Energy Farm trial, 0N–56N plots yielded 59 %–108 % more biomass than 0N–0N. Soil total N increased (Sun Grant: 47 % by 2020; Energy Farm: 58 % by 2023), while Mehlich-3 P (42 %–44 %) and K (21 %–46 %) declined. These findings identify tiller weight as a key determinant of biomass yield in aging miscanthus and highlight the need for P and K management for long-term productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2012

A mechanistic study explaining the synergistic viscosity increase obtained from polyethylene oxide (PEO) and {beta}-naphthalene sulfonate (BNS) in shotcrete

In shotcrete, a combination of polyethylene oxide (PEO) and {beta}-naphthalene sulfonate (BNS) is commonly applied to reduce rebound. Here, the mechanism for the synergistic viscosity increase resulting from this admixture combination was investigated via x-ray diffraction (XRD), infrared and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. It was found that the electron-rich aromatic rings present in BNS donate electrons to the alkyl protons of PEO and thus increase the electron density there. This rare interaction is known as CH-{pi} interaction and leads to the formation of a supramolecular structure whereby PEO chains bind weakly to BNS molecules. Through this mechanism a polymer network exhibiting exceptionally high molecular weight and thus viscosity is formed. Among polycondensates, sulfanilic acid-phenol-formaldehyde (SPF) provides even higher synergy with PEO than BNS while melamine (PMS), acetone (AFS) or polycarboxylate (PCE) based superplasticizers do not work at all. Effectiveness of lignosulfonates is dependent on their degree of sulfonation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

May reversible water uptake/release by hydrates explain the thermal expansion of cement paste? ÔÇö Arguments from an inverse multiscale analysis

Quasi-instantaneous thermal expansion of cement pastes is governed by the relative humidity (RH) within their air-filled pores and by the decrease/increase of this internal RH resulting from a temperature decrease/increase. The latter effect is traced back to quasi-instantaneous water uptake/release by cement hydrates, using microporomechanics and a three-scale representation of mature cement pastes. Partially saturated gel and capillary pores are considered to be connected and spherical, with radii following exponential distributions. The Mori-Tanaka scheme provides the scale transition from effective pore pressures to eigenstrains at the cement paste level. This modeling approach, together with considering mass conservation of water, allows for downscaling macroscopic thermal expansion coefficients, so as to identify the molecular water uptake/release characteristics of the hydrates. The latter characteristics are mixture-independent, as shown by their use for predicting the thermal expansion coefficients of different mature cement pastes, with w/c-ratios ranging from 0.50 to 0.70.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dietary microalgae on poultry meat and eggs: explained versus unexplained effects

Different types and sources of microalgae are used to feed broiler chickens and laying hens. This report provides a concise update on various impacts of feeding these novel ingredients on physical, chemical, and nutritional attributes of the resultant meat and eggs. Some of the observed effects may be associated with biochemical and molecular mechanisms derived from unique chemical compositions and nutritional values of microalgae. However, the full potential and the accurate mechanism of microalgae in producing health-promoting poultry foods remain to be explored.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗