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Primal and Dual Integrated Force Methods Used for Stochastic Analysis

At the NASA Glenn Research Center, the primal and dual integrated force methods are being extended for the stochastic analysis of structures. The stochastic simulation can be used to quantify the consequence of scatter in stress and displacement response because of a specified variation in input parameters such as load (mechanical, thermal, and support settling loads), material properties (strength, modulus, density, etc.), and sizing design variables (depth, thickness, etc.). All the parameters are modeled as random variables with given probability distributions, means, and covariances. The stochastic response is formulated through a quadratic perturbation theory, and it is verified through a Monte Carlo simulation.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

Design Optimization Tool for Synthetic Jet Actuators Using Lumped Element Modeling

The performance specifications of any actuator are quantified in terms of an exhaustive list of parameters such as bandwidth, output control authority, etc. Flow-control applications benefit from a known actuator frequency response function that relates the input voltage to the output property of interest (e.g., maximum velocity, volumetric flow rate, momentum flux, etc.). Clearly, the required performance metrics are application specific, and methods are needed to achieve the optimal design of these devices. Design and optimization studies have been conducted for piezoelectric cantilever-type flow control actuators, but the modeling issues are simpler compared to synthetic jets. Here, lumped element modeling (LEM) is combined with equivalent circuit representations to estimate the nonlinear dynamic response of a synthetic jet as a function of device dimensions, material properties, and external flow conditions. These models provide reasonable agreement between predicted and measured frequency response functions and thus are suitable for use as design tools. In this work, we have developed a Matlab-based design optimization tool for piezoelectric synthetic jet actuators based on the lumped element models mentioned above. Significant improvements were achieved by optimizing the piezoceramic diaphragm dimensions. Synthetic-jet actuators were fabricated and benchtop tested to fully document their behavior and validate a companion optimization effort. It is hoped that the tool developed from this investigation will assist in the design and deployment of these actuators.

Gallas, Quentin↗

Statistical Considerations of Data Processing in Giovanni Online Tool

The GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) is a web-based interface for the rapid visualization and analysis of gridded data from a number of remote sensing instruments. The GES DISC currently employs several Giovanni instances to analyze various products, such as Ocean-Giovanni for ocean products from SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua; TOMS & OM1 Giovanni for atmospheric chemical trace gases from TOMS and OMI, and MOVAS for aerosols from MODIS, etc. (http://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov) Foremost among the Giovanni statistical functions is data averaging. Two aspects of this function are addressed here. The first deals with the accuracy of averaging gridded mapped products vs. averaging from the ungridded Level 2 data. Some mapped products contain mean values only; others contain additional statistics, such as number of pixels (NP) for each grid, standard deviation, etc. Since NP varies spatially and temporally, averaging with or without weighting by NP will be different. In this paper, we address differences of various weighting algorithms for some datasets utilized in Giovanni. The second aspect is related to different averaging methods affecting data quality and interpretation for data with non-normal distribution. The present study demonstrates results of different spatial averaging methods using gridded SeaWiFS Level 3 mapped monthly chlorophyll a data. Spatial averages were calculated using three different methods: arithmetic mean (AVG), geometric mean (GEO), and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Biogeochemical data, such as chlorophyll a, are usually considered to have a log-normal distribution. The study determined that differences between methods tend to increase with increasing size of a selected coastal area, with no significant differences in most open oceans. The GEO method consistently produces values lower than AVG and MLE. The AVG method produces values larger than MLE in some cases, but smaller in other cases. Further studies indicated that significant differences between AVG and MLE methods occurred in coastal areas where data have large spatial variations and a log-bimodal distribution instead of log-normal distribution.

Suhung, Shen↗

Small Mercury Ion Clock for On-board Spacecraft Navigation

I.Small Ion Clock Approach and Heritage: a) No lasers, uwave cavities, cryogenics, atomic beams, etc. b) Ions are electrically shuttled between separate optical and microwave traps. II. Each trap is optimized for its task: quadrupole for optical state selection; multi-pole for microwave clock. a) Very good stability shown in USNO. Timescale running "open loop." III. "Open loop" operation means no self-measurements of frequency offsets: (Zeeman, ion temperature,... etc.) a) Fewer parts and procedures, produces stable output continuously. IV. Ion clock is not so sensitive to temperature fluctuations a) Measured u:nshielded temperature coefficient of few 10(exp -15) per C. b) No bulky temperature isolation needed.

Prestage, John D.↗

Conducting Closed Habitation Experiments: Experience from the Lunar Mars Life Support Test Project

The Lunar-Mars Life Support Test Project (LMLSTP) was conducted from 1995 through 1997 at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) to demonstrate increasingly longer duration operation of integrated, closed-loop life support systems that employed biological and physicochemical techniques for water recycling, waste processing, air revitalization, thermal control, and food production. An analog environment for long-duration human space travel, the conditions of isolation and confinement also enabled studies of human factors, medical sciences (both physiology and psychology) and crew training. Four tests were conducted, Phases I, II, IIa and III, with durations of 15, 30, 60 and 91 days, respectively. The first phase focused on biological air regeneration, using wheat to generate enough oxygen for one experimental subject. The systems demonstrated in the later phases were increasingly complex and interdependent, and provided life support for four crew members. The tests were conducted using two human-rated, atmospherically-closed test chambers, the Variable Pressure Growth Chamber (VPGC) and the Integrated Life Support Systems Test Facility (ILSSTF). Systems included test articles (the life support hardware under evaluation), human accommodations (living quarters, kitchen, exercise equipment, etc.) and facility systems (emergency matrix system, power, cooling, etc.). The test team was managed by a lead engineer and a test director, and included test article engineers responsible for specific systems, subsystems or test articles, test conductors, facility engineers, chamber operators and engineering technicians, medical and safety officers, and science experimenters. A crew selection committee, comprised of psychologists, engineers and managers involved in the test, evaluated male and female volunteers who applied to be test subjects. Selection was based on the skills mix anticipated for each particular test, and utilized information from psychological and medical testing, data on the knowledge, experience and skills of the applicants, and team building exercises. The design, development, buildup and operation of test hardware and documentation followed the established NASA processes and requirements for test buildup and operation.

Barta, Daniel J.↗

Space and Ground Trades for Human Exploration and Wearable Computing

Human exploration of the Moon and Mars will present unique trade study challenges as ground system elements shift to planetary bodies and perhaps eventually to the bodies of human explorers in the form of wearable computing technologies. This presentation will highlight some of the key space and ground trade issues that will face the Exploration Initiative as NASA begins designing systems for the sustained human exploration of the Moon and Mars, with an emphasis on wearable computing. We will present some preliminary test results and scenarios that demonstrate how wearable computing might affect the trade space noted below. We will first present some background on wearable computing and its utility to NASA's Exploration Initiative. Next, we will discuss three broad architectural themes, some key ground and space trade issues within those themes and how they relate to wearable computing. Lastly, we will present some preliminary test results and suggest guidance for proceeding in the assessment and creation of a value-added role for wearable computing in the Exploration Initiative. The three broad ground-space architectural trade themes we will discuss are: 1. Functional Shift and Distribution: To what extent, if any, should traditional ground system functionality be shifted to, and distributed among, the Earth, Moon/Mars, and the human. explorer? 2. Situational Awareness and Autonomy: How much situational awareness (e.g. environmental conditions, biometrics, etc.) and autonomy is required and desired, and where should these capabilities reside? 3. Functional Redundancy: What functions (e.g. command, control, analysis) should exist simultaneously on Earth, the Moon/Mars, and the human explorer? These three themes can serve as the axes of a three-dimensional trade space, within which architectural solutions reside. We will show how wearable computers can fit into this trade space and what the possible implications could be for the rest of the ground and space architecture(s). We intend this to be an example of explorer-centric thinking in a fully integrated explorer paradigm, where integrated explorer refers to a human explorer having instant access to all relevant data, knowledge of the environment, science models, health and safety-related events, and other tools and information via wearable computing technologies. The trade study approach will include involvement from the relevant stakeholders (Constellation Systems, CCCI, EVA Project Office, Astronaut office, Mission Operations, Space Life Sciences, etc.) to develop operations concepts (and/or operations scenarios) from which a basic high-level set of requirements could be extracted. This set of requirements could serve as a foundation (along with stakeholder buy-in) that would help define the trade space and assist in identifying candidate technologies for further study and evolution to higher-level technology readiness levels.

Lupisella, Mark↗

Conducting Closed Habitation Experiments: Experience from the Lunar Mars Life Support Test Project

The Lunar-Mars Life Support Test Project (LMLSTP) was conducted from 1995 through 1997 at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) to demonstrate increasingly longer duration operation of integrated, closed-loop life support systems that employed biological and physicochemical techniques for water recycling, waste processing, air revitalization, thermal control, and food production. An analog environment for long-duration human space travel, the conditions of isolation and confinement also enabled studies of human factors, medical sciences (both physiology and psychology) and crew training. Four tests were conducted, Phases I, II, IIa and III, with durations of 15, 30,60 and 91 days, respectively. The first phase focused on biological air regeneration, using wheat to generate enough oxygen for one experimental subject. The systems demonstrated in the later phases were increasingly complex and interdependent, and provided life support for four crew members. The tests were conducted using two human-rated, atmospherically-closed test chambers, the Variable Pressure Growth Chamber (VPGC) and the Integrated Life Support Systems Test Facility (ILSSTF). Systems included test articles (the life support hardware under evaluation), human accommodations (living quarters, kitchen, exercise equipment, etc.) and facility systems (emergency matrix system, power, cooling, etc.). The test team was managed by a lead engineer and a test director, and included test article engineers responsible for specific systems, subsystems or test articles, test conductors, facility engineers, chamber operators and engineering technicians, medical and safety officers, and science experimenters. A crew selection committee, comprised of psychologists, engineers and managers involved in the test, evaluated male and female volunteers who applied to be test subjects. Selection was based on the skills mix anticipated for each particular test, and utilized information from psychological and medical testing, data on the knowledge, experience and skills of the applicants, and team building exercises. The design, development, buildup and operation of test hardware and documentation followed the established NASA processes and requirements for test buildup and operation.

Barta, Daniel J.↗

Testing in Support of Fission Surface Power System Qualification

The strategy for qualifying a FSP system could have a significant programmatic impact. The US has not qualified a space fission power system since launch of the SNAP-10A in 1965. This paper explores cost-effective options for obtaining data that would be needed for flight qualification of a fission system. Qualification data could be obtained from both nuclear and non-nuclear testing. The ability to perform highly realistic nonnuclear testing has advanced significantly throughout the past four decades. Instrumented thermal simulators were developed during the 1970s and 1980s to assist in the development, operation, and assessment of terrestrial fission systems. Instrumented thermal simulators optimized for assisting in the development, operation, and assessment of modern FSP systems have been under development (and utilized) since 1998. These thermal simulators enable heat from fission to be closely mimicked (axial power profile, radial power profile, temperature, heat flux, etc.) and extensive data to be taken from the core region. For transient testing, pin power during a transient is calculated based on the reactivity feedback that would occur given measured values of test article temperature and/or dimensional changes. The reactivity feedback coefficients needed for the test are either calculated or measured using cold/warm zero-power criticals. In this way non-nuclear testing can be used to provide very realistic information related to nuclear operation. Non-nuclear testing can be used at all levels, including component, subsystem, and integrated system testing. FSP fuels and materials are typically chosen to ensure very high confidence in operation at design burnups, fluences, and temperatures. However, facilities exist (e.g. ATR, HFIR) for affordably performing in-pile fuel and materials irradiations, if such testing is desired. Ex-core materials and components (such as alternator materials, control drum drives, etc.) could be irradiated in university or DOE reactors to ensure adequate radiation resistance. Facilities also exist for performing warm and cold zero-power criticals.

Houts, Mike↗

Optimizing RHESSI X-ray Imaging

RHESSI X-ray imaging is possible with angular resolution as fine as 2 arcsec (FWHM) at energies from as low as 3 keV to >100 keV. However, taking full advantage of this capability has proven to be challenging given the Fourier-transform imaging technique that is used, specific instrumental considerations that must be taken into account, and the many different options of the available image reconstruction algorithms. Such considerations as the best reconstruction algorithm to use, the optimal weighting of the different Fourier components, deciding between short image integration times and rapid imaging cadence, the different energy ranges covered by the 9 detectors, the effect of pulse pile-up and albedo, etc. must all be taken into account in obtaining and interpreting RHESSI X-ray images. This poster describes different techniques for optimizing the image reconstruction depending on the science objectives - identifying compact or extended sources, searching for source motion, obtaining the best photometry, determining the believability of different features in an image, etc. The emphasis is on making full use of data from all the RHESSI detectors, including the ones behind the finest grids when warranted by the source structure. This is the case for the hard X-ray emission along the ribbons of the flare on 2005 May 13 reported by Liu et al. (2007) and this event will be used as an example.

Dennis, Brian R.↗

Science Archives in the 21st Century: A NASA LAMBDA Report

Lambda is a thematic data center that focuses on serving the cosmic microwave background (CMB) research community. LAMBDA is an active archive for NASA's Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) and Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) mission data sets. In addition, LAMBDA provides analysis software, on-line tools, relevant ancillary data and important web links. LAMBDA also tries to preserve the most important ground-based and suborbital CMB data sets. CMB data is unlike other astrophysical data, consisting of intrinsically diffuse surface brightness photometry with a signal contrast of the order 1 part in 100,000 relative to the uniform background. Because of the extremely faint signal levels, the signal-to-noise ratio is relatively low and detailed instrument-specific knowledge of the data is essential. While the number of data sets being produced is not especially large, those data sets are becoming large and complex. That tendency will increase when the many polarization experiments currently being deployed begin producing data. The LAMBDA experience supports many aspects of the NASA data archive model developed informally over the last ten years-that small focused data centers are often more effective than larger more ambitious collections, for example; that data centers are usually best run by active scientists; that it can be particularly advantageous if those scientists are leaders in the use of the archived data sets; etc. LAMBDA has done some things so well that they might provide lessons for other archives. A lot of effort has been devoted to developing a simple and consistent interface to data sets, for example; and serving all the documentation required via simple 'more' pages and longer explanatory supplements. Many of the problems faced by LAMBDA will also not surprise anyone trying to manage other space science data. These range from persuading mission scientists to provide their data as quickly as possible, to dealing with a high volume of nuisance (spam) messages. Because so many data center problems and solutions are common across individual data centers and disciplines it would be very valuable to establish some new systems of communication - such as informal email lists for administrators and developers. But resources are very limited, so new timeconsuming and inefficient mechanisms - like too-frequent and too-structured meetingsshould be avoided. Although there are great advantages to being small, agile and independent, there are also some areas where science data centers within and without NASA could be better coordinated - for the assignment of persistent identifiers; to encourage the early adoption of useful standards and technologies; etc. Some super-structure to facilitate such coordination might be beneficial as long as it doesn't begin to control the other work of the archives, and become a "methodology police". In this respect the CCSDS "Reference Model for an Open Archive Information System" is a little worrying. It may be that the closer a data center gets to following such a detailed prescription, the less effective it will become. It is much better to have an informal coordination process than a bureaucratic straight-jacket.

Butterworth, P.↗

Robustness of Modeling of Out-of-Service Gas Mechanical Face Seal

Gas lubricated mechanical face seal are ubiquitous in many high performance applications such as compressors and gas turbines. The literature contains various analyses of seals having orderly face patterns (radial taper, waves, spiral grooves, etc.). These are useful for design purposes and for performance predictions. However, seals returning from service (or from testing) inevitably contain wear tracks and warped faces that depart from the aforementioned orderly patterns. Questions then arise as to the heat generated at the interface, leakage rates, axial displacement and tilts, minimum film thickness, contact forces, etc. This work describes an analysis of seals that may inherit any (i.e., random) face pattern. A comprehensive computer code is developed, based upon the Newton- Raphson method, which solves for the equilibrium of the axial force and tilting moments that are generated by asperity contact and fluid film effects. A contact mechanics model is incorporated along with a finite volume method that solves the compressible Reynolds equation. Results are presented for a production seal that has sustained a testing cycle.

Green, Itzhak↗

Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) for Test Stand and J-2X Engine: Core Implementation

ISHM capability enables a system to detect anomalies, determine causes and effects, predict future anomalies, and provides an integrated awareness of the health of the system to users (operators, customers, management, etc.). NASA Stennis Space Center, NASA Ames Research Center, and Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne have implemented a core ISHM capability that encompasses the A1 Test Stand and the J-2X Engine. The implementation incorporates all aspects of ISHM; from anomaly detection (e.g. leaks) to root-cause-analysis based on failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), to a user interface for an integrated visualization of the health of the system (Test Stand and Engine). The implementation provides a low functional capability level (FCL) in that it is populated with few algorithms and approaches for anomaly detection, and root-cause trees from a limited FMEA effort. However, it is a demonstration of a credible ISHM capability, and it is inherently designed for continuous and systematic augmentation of the capability. The ISHM capability is grounded on an integrating software environment used to create an ISHM model of the system. The ISHM model follows an object-oriented approach: includes all elements of the system (from schematics) and provides for compartmentalized storage of information associated with each element. For instance, a sensor object contains a transducer electronic data sheet (TEDS) with information that might be used by algorithms and approaches for anomaly detection, diagnostics, etc. Similarly, a component, such as a tank, contains a Component Electronic Data Sheet (CEDS). Each element also includes a Health Electronic Data Sheet (HEDS) that contains health-related information such as anomalies and health state. Some practical aspects of the implementation include: (1) near real-time data flow from the test stand data acquisition system through the ISHM model, for near real-time detection of anomalies and diagnostics, (2) insertion of the J-2X predictive model providing predicted sensor values for comparison with measured values and use in anomaly detection and diagnostics, and (3) insertion of third-party anomaly detection algorithms into the integrated ISHM model.

Figueroa, Jorge F.↗

Real-Time Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis for Floods and Landslides

Satellite data acquired and processed in real time now have the potential to provide the spacetime information on rainfall needed to monitor flood and landslide events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models and landslide algorithms. Progress in using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as input to flood and landslide forecasts is outlined, with a focus on understanding limitations of the rainfall data and impacts of those limitations on flood/landslide analyses. Case studies of both successes and failures will be shown, as well as comparison with ground comparison data sets-- both in terms of rainfall and in terms of flood/landslide events. In addition to potential uses in real-time, the nearly ten years of TMPA data allow retrospective running of the models to examine variations in extreme events. The flood determination algorithm consists of four major components: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission), topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) a hydrological model to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay the input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to potential users and decision-makers, In terms of landslides, the satellite rainfall information is combined with a global landslide susceptibility map, derived from a combination of global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a weighted linear combination approach. In those areas identified as "susceptible" (based on the surface characteristics), landslides are forecast where and when a rainfall intensity/duration threshold is exceeded. Results are described indicating general agreement with landslide occurrences.

Adler, Robert↗

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

House, P. R.↗

Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis to Floods and Landslides

Satellite data acquired and processed in real time now have the potential to provide the spacetime information on rainfall needed to monitor flood and landslide events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models and landslide algorithms. Progress in using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as input to flood and landslide forecasts is outlined, with a focus on understanding limitations of the rainfall data and impacts of those limitations on flood/landslide analyses. Case studies of both successes and failures will be shown, as well as comparison with ground comparison data sets both in terms of rainfall and in terms of flood/landslide events. In addition to potential uses in real-time, the nearly ten years of TMPA data allow retrospective running of the models to examine variations in extreme events. The flood determination algorithm consists of four major components: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission), topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) a hydrological model to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay the input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to potential users and decision-makers. In terms of landslides, the satellite rainfall information is combined with a global landslide susceptibility map, derived from a combination of global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a weighted linear combination approach. In those areas identified as "susceptible" (based on the surface characteristics), landslides are forecast where and when a rainfall intensity/duration threshold is exceeded. Results are described indicating general agreement with landslide occurrences. However, difficulties in comparing landslide event information (mostly from news reports) with the satellite-based forecasts are analyzed.

Adler, Robert↗

Improving Coastal Ocean Color Validation Capabilities through Application of Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs)

Understanding how the different components of seawater alter the path of incident sunlight through scattering and absorption is essential to using remotely sensed ocean color observations effectively. This is particularly apropos in coastal waters where the different optically significant components (phytoplankton, detrital material, inorganic minerals, etc.) vary widely in concentration, often independently from one another. Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs) form the link between these biogeochemical constituents and the Apparent Optical Properties (AOPs). understanding this interrelationship is at the heart of successfully carrying out inversions of satellite-measured radiance to biogeochemical properties. While sufficient covariation of seawater constituents in case I waters typically allows empirical algorithms connecting AOPs and biogeochemical parameters to behave well, these empirical algorithms normally do not hold for case I1 regimes (Carder et al. 2003). Validation in the context of ocean color remote sensing refers to in-situ measurements used to verify or characterize algorithm products or any assumption used as input to an algorithm. In this project, validation capabilities are considered those measurement capabilities, techniques, methods, models, etc. that allow effective validation. Enhancing current validation capabilities by incorporating state-of-the-art IOP measurements and optical models is the purpose of this work. Involved in this pursuit is improving core IOP measurement capabilities (spectral, angular, spatio-temporal resolutions), improving our understanding of the behavior of analytical AOP-IOP approximations in complex coastal waters, and improving the spatial and temporal resolution of biogeochemical data for validation by applying biogeochemical-IOP inversion models so that these parameters can be computed from real-time IOP sensors with high sampling rates. Research cruises supported by this project provides for collection and processing of seawater samples for biogeochemical (pigments, DOC and POC) and optical (CDOM and POM absorption coefficients) analyses to enhance our understanding of the linkages between in-water optical measurements (IOPs and AOPs) and biogeochemical constituents and to provide a more comprehensive suite of validation products.

Mannino, Antonio↗

Use of Probabilistic Engineering Methods in the Detailed Design and Development Phases of the NASA Ares Launch Vehicle

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program called Constellation to send crew and cargo to the international Space Station, to the moon, and beyond. As part of the Constellation program, a new launch vehicle, Ares I, is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Designing a launch vehicle with high reliability and increased safety requires a significant effort in understanding design variability and design uncertainty at the various levels of the design (system, element, subsystem, component, etc.) and throughout the various design phases (conceptual, preliminary design, etc.). In a previous paper [1] we discussed a probabilistic functional failure analysis approach intended mainly to support system requirements definition, system design, and element design during the early design phases. This paper provides an overview of the application of probabilistic engineering methods to support the detailed subsystem/component design and development as part of the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the new Ares I Launch Vehicle. Specifically, the paper discusses probabilistic engineering design analysis cases that had major impact on the design and manufacturing of the Space Shuttle hardware. The cases represent important lessons learned from the Space Shuttle Program and clearly demonstrate the significance of probabilistic engineering analysis in better understanding design deficiencies and identifying potential design improvement for Ares I. The paper also discusses the probabilistic functional failure analysis approach applied during the early design phases of Ares I and the forward plans for probabilistic design analysis in the detailed design and development phases.

Fayssal, Safie↗

Relating Risk and Reliability Predictions to Design and Development Choices

In this context there are many possible assurance activities. Some focus on the prevention of defects - for example, up-front planning, adoption of design standards, configuration management, training, etc. Others focus on the detection of defects - either to detect latent defects in a system (and so be able to correct them before actual deployment of the system), or to increase confidence that such defects are not present. For example, a wide gamut of reviews, design walkthroughs, tests, inspections, analyses, etc. can be applied to systems and their components.

optimization↗