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At least 253 records · Page 14

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori-Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non-Poisson” power-law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de-clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Observation and Reanalysis Derived Relationships Between Cloud and Land Surface Fluxes Across Cumulus and Stratiform Coupling Over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract Understanding interactions between low clouds and land surface fluxes is critical to comprehending Earth's energy balance, yet their relationships remain elusive, with discrepancies between observations and modeling. Leveraging long‐term field observations over the Southern Great Plains, this investigation revealed that cloud‐land interactions are closely connected to cloud‐land coupling regimes. Observational evidence supports a dual‐mode interaction: coupled stratiform clouds predominate in low sensible heat scenarios, while coupled cumulus clouds dominate in high sensible heat scenarios. Reanalysis data sets, MERRA‐2 and ERA‐5, obscure this dichotomy owing to a shortfall in representing boundary layer clouds, especially in capturing the initiation of coupled cumulus in high sensible heat scenarios. ERA‐5 demonstrates a relatively closer alignment with observational data, particularly in capturing relationships between cloud frequency and latent heat, markedly outperforming MERRA‐2. Our study underscores the necessity of distinguishing different cloud coupling regimes, essential to the understanding of their interactions for advancing land‐atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ising meson spectroscopy on a noisy digital quantum simulator

Abstract Quantum simulation has the potential to be an indispensable technique for the investigation of non-perturbative phenomena in strongly-interacting quantum field theories (QFTs). In the modern quantum era, with Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) simulators widely available and larger-scale quantum machines on the horizon, it is natural to ask: what non-perturbative QFT problems can be solved with the existing quantum hardware? We show that existing noisy quantum machines can be used to analyze the energy spectrum of several strongly-interacting 1+1D QFTs, which exhibit non-perturbative effects like ‘quark confinement’ and ‘false vacuum decay’. We perform quench experiments on IBM’s quantum simulators to compute the energy spectrum of 1+1D quantum Ising model with a longitudinal field. Our results demonstrate that digital quantum simulation in the NISQ era has the potential to be a viable alternative to numerical techniques such as density matrix renormalization group or the truncated conformal space methods for analyzing QFTs.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Quantum Zeno Monte Carlo for computing observables

The recent development of logical quantum processors marks a pivotal transition from the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era to the fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) era. These devices have the potential to address classically challenging problems with polynomial computational time using quantum properties. However, they remain susceptible to noise, necessitating noise resilient algorithms. We introduce Quantum Zeno Monte Carlo (QZMC), a classical-quantum hybrid algorithm that demonstrates resilience to device noise and Trotter errors while showing polynomial computational cost for a gapped system. QZMC computes static and dynamic properties without requiring initial state overlap or variational parameters, offering reduced quantum circuit depth.

Han, Mancheon [Korea Institute for Advanced Study ↗

Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ab initio molecular dynamics on quantum computers

Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) is a valuable technique for studying molecules and materials at finite temperatures where the nuclei evolve on potential energy surfaces obtained from accurate electronic structure calculations. In this work, we present an approach to running AIMD simulations on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ)-era quantum computers. The electronic energies are calculated on a quantum computer using the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) method. Algorithms for computation of analytical gradients entirely on a quantum computer require quantum fault-tolerant hardware, which is beyond NISQ-era. Therefore, we compute the energy gradients numerically using finite differences, the Hellmann-Feynman theorem, and a correlated sampling technique. This method only requires additional classical calculations of electron integrals for each degree of freedom without any additional computations on a quantum computer beyond the initial VQE run. As a proof of concept, AIMD simulations are demonstrated for the H-2 molecule on IBM quantum devices. In addition, we demonstrate the validity of the method for larger molecules using full configuration interaction wave functions. As quantum hardware and noise mitigation techniques continue to improve, the method can be utilized for studying larger molecular systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cosmological dependence of resonantly produced sterile neutrinos

The detection of a sterile neutrino could constitute the first observation of a particle that could have been produced before Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), and could provide information about the yet untested pre-BBN era. The cosmological evolution in this era could be drastically different than typically assumed in what constitutes the standard cosmology, as happens in a variety of motivated particle models. In this work we assess the sensitivity to different pre-BBN cosmologies in which entropy is conserved of 0.01 eV to 1 MeV mass sterile neutrinos produced in the early Universe via resonant active-sterile oscillations, which requires a large lepton asymmetry. We identify mass ranges where it is possible to have two populations of the same sterile neutrino, one with a colder and one with a hotter momentum spectra, which is in principle an observable effect. Furthermore, we show the regions in mass and mixing where fully resonant production (i.e. simultaneously coherent and adiabatic) can occur. Here, we find that in several of the cosmologies we consider, including the standard one, for a lepton asymmetry larger than ~10 –4 fully resonantly produced sterile neutrinos in the eV-mass range can evade all cosmological constraints.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Arctic extreme precipitation changes from 1980 to 2022 in response to sea ice decline and enhanced atmospheric rivers

Arctic extreme precipitation (EP) broadly impacts permafrost degradation, glacier and snow cover changes, and ice sheet mass balance as well as ecosystems. However, investigation of EP spatiotemporal variations over the Arctic remains challenging, and their primary drivers are still poorly understood. Performance estimation of three state-of-the-art reanalysis products (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA-5), and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)) against gauge-based precipitation observations reveals that MERRA-2 outperforms other reanalysis for Arctic EP changes. Based on MERRA-2 data, both annual EP amount and occurrence days averaged over the Arctic show statistically significant positive trends during 1980–2022 (3.37 ± 1.03 mm dec −1 and 0.42 ± 0.17 d dec −1 , respectively), with the most pronounced increase in the autumn. Spatial heterogeneity in annual and seasonal EP trends is found across the Arctic, with the largest positive annual trends of 30 mm dec −1 over the Bering Sea and the Denmark Strait. The significant EP increase is closely associated with intensified atmospheric rivers (ARs) and widespread decline in sea ice concentration (SIC). Specially, SIC and ARs are responsible for 12% and 50% of Arctic EP inter-annual variance, respectively, while ARs directly contribute 28.3% of the total annual EP amounts. These findings explain the mechanistic controls on Arctic EP, providing critical insights for projecting polar weather and climate extremes and their impacts on the Arctic environment.

atmospheric rivers↗

Digital-analog quantum computation

Digital quantum computing paradigm offers highly desirable features such as universality, scalability, and quantum error correction. However, physical resource requirements to implement useful error-corrected quantum algorithms are prohibitive in the current era of NISQ devices. As an alternative path to performing universal quantum computation, within the NISQ era limitations, we propose to merge digital single-qubit operations with analog multiqubit entangling blocks in an approach we call digital-analog quantum computing (DAQC). Along these lines, although the techniques may be extended to any resource, we propose to use unitaries generated by the ubiquitous Ising Hamiltonian for the analog entangling block and we prove its universal character. Here, we construct explicit DAQC protocols for efficient simulations of arbitrary inhomogeneous Ising, two-body, and M-body spin Hamiltonian dynamics by means of single-qubit gates and a fixed homogeneous Ising Hamiltonian. Additionally, we compare a sequential approach where the interactions are switched on and off (stepwise DAQC) with an always-on multiqubit interaction interspersed by fast single-qubit pulses (banged DAQC). Finally, we perform numerical tests comparing purely digital schemes with DAQC protocols, showing a remarkably better performance of the latter. The proposed DAQC approach combines the robustness of analog quantum computing with the flexibility of digital methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Relic cosmological vector fields and inflationary gravitational waves

Here we show that relic vector fields can significantly impact a spectrum of primordial gravitational waves in the postinflationary era. We consider a triplet of U(1) fields in a homogeneous, isotropic configuration. The interaction between the gravitational waves and the vector fields, from the end of reheating to the present day, yields novel spectral features. The amplitude, tilt, shape, and net chirality of the gravitational wave spectrum are shown to depend on the abundance of the electric- and magneticlike vector fields. Our results show that even a modest abundance can have strong implications for efforts to detect the imprint of gravitational waves on the cosmic microwave background polarization. We find that a vector field comprising less than 2% of the energy density during the radiation-dominated era can have a greater than order unity effect on the predicted inflationary gravitational wave spectrum.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The promising role of proteomes and metabolomes in defining the single-cell landscapes of plants

The plant community has a strong track-record of RNA sequencing technology deployment, which combined with the recent advent of spatial platforms (e.g., 10x genomics), has resulted in an explosion of outstanding single cell and nuclei datasets that can be put in an in situ context within tissues (e.g., a cell atlas)1. In the genomics era, application of proteomics technologies in the plant sciences has always trailed behind that of RNA sequencing technologies, largely due to accessibility, ease-of-use and access to expertise along with depth of analysis benefits. On the other hand, the use of early analytical tools for characterizing small molecules (metabolites) from plant systems predates nucleic acid sequencing and proteomics analysis2, as the search for plant-based natural products has played a significant role in improving human health throughout history. However, the employment of proteomics and metabolomics assays for characterizing plant cell processes now remains significantly behind transcriptional approaches, even though both provide a direct functional readout of cell states and phenotypes.

Anderton, Christopher R. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB↗

Pan-Pacific low-frequency modes of sea level and climate variability

Tide gauges provide a long observational record that can inform the nature of satellite-era basin-scale sea level trends. However, common signals must be extracted from geographically sparse records. Here, by applying low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to tide gauge records and surface climate reconstructions, we isolate three coherent modes of Pacific Ocean variability that we ascribe to: a secular, greenhouse gas–driven climate change (LFC1); a nonlinear mode of variability with a reversal around 1980, potentially linked to aerosols (LFC2); and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (LFC3). Although sea level trend patterns reflect the superimposed contribution of all modes, satellite-era trends are dominated by an increasing phase of LFC2: They are thus potentially unrepresentative of both longer-term historical patterns and those expected in the future.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Characterization and identification of HPC applications at leadership computing facility

High Performance Computing (HPC) is an important method for scientific discovery via large-scale simulation, data analysis, or artificial intelligence. Leadership-class supercomputers are expensive, but essential to run large HPC applications. The Petascale era of supercomputers began in 2008, with the first machines achieving performance in excess of one petaflops, and with the advent of new supercomputers in 2021 (e.g., Aurora, Frontier), the Exascale era will soon begin. However, the high theoretical computing capability (i.e., peak FLOPS) of a machine is not the only meaningful target when designing a supercomputer, as the resources demand of applications varies. A deep understanding of the characterization of applications that run on a leadership supercomputer is one of the most important ways for planning its design, development and operation. In order to improve our understanding of HPC applications, user demands and resource usage characteristics, we perform correlative analysis of various logs for different subsystems of a leadership supercomputer. This analysis reveals surprising, sometimes counter-intuitive patterns, which, in some cases, conflicts with existing assumptions, and have important implications for future system designs as well as supercomputer operations. For example, our analysis shows that while the applications spend significant time on MPI, most applications spend very little time on file I/O. Combined analysis of hardware event logs and task failure logs show that the probability of a hardware FATAL event causing task failure is low. Combined analysis of control system logs and file I/O logs reveals that pure POSIX I/O is used more widely than higher level parallel I/O. Based on holistic insights of the application gained through combined and co-analysis of multiple logs from different perspectives and general intuition, we engineer features to "fingerprint" HPC applications. We use t-SNE (a machine learning technique for dimensionality reduction) to validate the explainability of our features and finally train machine learning models to identify HPC applications or group those with similar characteristic. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that combines logs on file I/O, computing, and inter-node communication for insightful analysis of HPC applications in production.

Liu, Zhengchun↗

UFNet: Joint U-Net and Fully Connected Neural Network to Bias Correct Precipitation Predictions from

Paper information. Shuang Yu, Indrasis Chakraborty, Gemma J. Anderson, Donald D. Lucas, Yannic Lops, and Daniel Galea. UFNet: Joint U-Net and fully connected neural network to bias correct precipitation predictions from climate models. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2024. Overview. This work develops the UFNet methodology to correct E3SM historical precipitation projection bias. The UFNet deep learning framework consists of a two-part architecture: a U-Net convolutional network to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and a fully connected network to capture the distribution of higher-order statistics. The joint network, termed UFNet, can simultaneously improve the spatial structure of the modeled precipitation and capture the distribution of extreme precipitation values. Below we provide guidance for applying UFNet to correct the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM; Golaz et al. 2019) daily precipitation projection over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Getting started 1. Obtain the historical climate simulation and observation data. The E3SM historical simulation data are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The CPC unified gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation can be found through https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globalprecip.html. The ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century (ERA-20C) data are available through https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-20c. The spatial resolution of E3SM and observed datasets are both regridded to a common 1° resolution grid using conservative interpolation. The regridded E3SM, CPC and ERA-20C with 1° resolution can be found throught ./data/. 2. Train the fully connected network (DNN) Python train_dnn.py 3. Train the UFNet Python train_ufnet.py 4. Evaluation and compared with the baseline Python evaluation.py

Lucas, DonaldD↗

Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades

The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Finally, potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and Scripts associated with a manuscript on ecosystem responses to wildfires in the Columbia River Basin

This data package is associated with the publication “Ecosystem leaf area, gross primary production, and evapotranspiration responses to wildfire in the Columbia River Basin” submitted to Biogeosciences (Shi et al., 2024; doi: 10.22541/au.171053013.30286044/v1). In this research, data products, leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET), from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are used to quantify the resistance and resilience of different ecosystem types in the Columbia River Basin (CRB). A machine learning algorithm, random forest (RF), was used to examine the impacts of precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and burn severity from Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) on ecosystem resilience. The data package includes the processed MODIS data products, precipitation, VPD, and burn severity in 138 fire regions in CRB and the input files for RF model training. This data package includes six folders. The MODIS products are included in three MODIS_* folders with shell scripts for data clipping and *ncl files for data processing: (1) “/MODIS_LAI_CRB”; (2) “/MODIS_GPP_CRB”; and (3) “/MODIS_ET_CRB”. All the processed data for each fire event are NetCDF formatted. The MTBS burn severity data and the shell and *ncl scripts used for data processing are in the folder named (4) “MTBS_fire”. The ERA meteorological fields and the data processing scritps are in (5) “ERA_Var_CR”. All the scripts for figure development are in the format of *ncl and in the folder (6) “paper_scripts”. See the file ending in “flmd.csv” for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. Tabular column headers and units are described in the data dictionary file ending in “dd.csv”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topsoil bulk geochemical compositions - An updated harmonized global dataset

Mineral weathering is a key biogeochemical process because of the capacity of minerals to stabilize organic matter. However, predicting soil weathering status across large spatial areas still isn’t possible due to a lack of global data and theoretical frameworks. To address this knowledge gap, multiple global datasets of bulk topsoil geochemical compositions have been harmonized using R. These datasets document topsoil bulk geochemical compositions across five continents (n = ~16,000 observations). Source data for these observations include the EuroGEOSurveys Geochemical Baseline Database (FOREGS), the US Geological Survey National Geochemical Database (NASGLP), the Geochemical Atlas of Australia (GAA), the US Geological Survey Alaska Geochemical Database (AGD84), the National Cooperative Soil Survey (NCSS), the European Geochemical Mapping of Agricultural Soil (GEMAS), Ecorespira-Amazon (ERA), the New Zealand Geochemical Baseline Survey (NZ_GBS), and the African Soil Information Service (AFSIS). Major elements observed include Aluminum (Al), Calcium (Ca), Iron (Fe), Potassium (K), Magnesium (Mg), Sodium (Na), Titanium (Ti), Manganese (Mn), Phosphorus (P), Carbon (C), and Sulfur (S). This data package includes the harmonized dataset itself, and the R scripts necessary to harmonize these datasets, in addition to metadata that describes all columns, files, and databases used in this project. Methods & Sampling Step 1 – Databases of geochemical data identified This study aimed to leverage existing measurements of topsoil geochemical data. Databases were first identified and deemed appropriate for inclusion if they were measuring soils and performed these measurements on the <2mm soil fraction. Databases such as NCSS and AGD84 needed more post processing to include in the database and this was done using the NCSS_datamerge_031626 R file and Alaska_USGSmerge_031626 R file, respectively. Step 2 – Database harmonization Once appropriate databases were identified, they were harmonized for ease of analysis using the R script Database_Harmonization_031826. This included removing columns from original datasets that would not be used in analysis (removed columns are noted in the code). Then, data cleaning procedures specific to each dataset were undertaken. This includes standardizing columns to include units and adding metadata columns regarding procedures for analyzing specific elements. Functions for standardizing measurements and units are outline in R files: calculate element_mg_kg_031626, calculate_oxide_wt_perc_031626, change_oxide_caps_031626, and conv_2_numeric_031626. This also included adding a unique identifier for each sample to identify it with its respective database (see CD_ID in data dictionary). Geographic information: Data reflect a compilation of datasets collected globally. Geographic areas covered by each of the datasets include: - EuroGEOSurveys Geochemical Baseline Database (FOREGS) - European continent - North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes (NASGLP) - continental United States and limited parts of Canada (see database key for more details) - National Geochemical Survey of Australia (GAA) - Australia - Alaska geochemical database (AGDB4) - Alaska - National Cooperative Soil Survey (NCSS) - Global measurements, but concentrated in the continental United States - Geochemical data for arable land and land under permanent grass cover in continental Europe (GEMAS) - continental Europe - Ecorespira-Amazon (ERA) - Geochemical data from the Amazon basin - Geochemical baseline data for New Zealand (NZGBS) - New Zealand - Geochemical data collected across continental Africa (AfSIS) - Measurements across Africa

EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > SOILS↗

Recovery and Calibration of Legacy Underground Nuclear Test Seismic Data from the Leo Brady Seismic Network

The Leo Brady Seismic Network (LBSN, originally the Sandia Seismic Network) was established in 1960 by Sandia National Laboratories to monitor underground nuclear tests (UGTs) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS, formerly named the Nevada Test Site). The LBSN has been in various configurations throughout its existence, but it has generally been comprised of four to six stations at regional distances (~150–400 km) from the NNSS with approximately evenly spaced azimuthal coverage. Between 1962 and the end of nuclear testing in 1992, the LBSN—and a sister network operated by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories—was the most comprehensive United States source of regional seismic data of UGTs. Approximately 75% of all UGTs performed by the United States occurred in the predigital era. At that time, LBSN data were transmitted as frequency-modulated (FM) audio over telephone lines to a central location and recorded as analog waveforms on high-fidelity magnetic audio tapes. These tapes have been in dry temperature-stable storage for decades and contain the sole record of this irreplaceable data; full waveforms of LBSN-recorded UGTs from this era were not routinely digitized or otherwise published. We have developed a process to recover and calibrate data from these tapes. First, we play back and digitize the tapes as audio. Next, we demodulate the FM “audio” into individual waveforms. We then estimate the various instrument constants through careful measurement of “weight-lift” tests performed prior to each UGT on each instrument. Finally, these coefficients allow us to scale and shape the derived instrument response of the seismographs and compute poles and zeros. Finally, the result of this process is a digital record of the recorded seismic ground motion in a modern data format, stored in a searchable database. To date, we have digitized tapes from 592 UGTs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗