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At least 253 records · Page 14

Scalable learning of potentials to predict time-dependent Hartree–Fock dynamics

We propose a framework to learn the time-dependent Hartree–Fock (TDHF) inter-electronic potential of a molecule from its electron density dynamics. Although the entire TDHF Hamiltonian, including the inter-electronic potential, can be computed from first principles, we use this problem as a testbed to develop strategies that can be applied to learn a priori unknown terms that arise in other methods/approaches to quantum dynamics, e.g., emerging problems such as learning exchange–correlation potentials for time-dependent density functional theory. We develop, train, and test three models of the TDHF inter-electronic potential, each parameterized by a four-index tensor of size up to 60 × 60 × 60 × 60. Two of the models preserve Hermitian symmetry, while one model preserves an eight-fold permutation symmetry that implies Hermitian symmetry. Across seven different molecular systems, we find that accounting for the deeper eight-fold symmetry leads to the best-performing model across three metrics: training efficiency, test set predictive power, and direct comparison of true and learned inter-electronic potentials. All three models, when trained on ensembles of field-free trajectories, generate accurate electron dynamics predictions even in a field-on regime that lies outside the training set. To enable our models to scale to large molecular systems, we derive expressions for Jacobian-vector products that enable iterative, matrix-free training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Polariton creation in coupled cavity arrays with spectrally disordered emitters

Abstract Integrated photonics has been a promising platform for analog quantum simulation of condensed matter phenomena in strongly correlated systems. To that end, we explore the implementation of all-photonic quantum simulators in coupled cavity arrays with integrated ensembles of spectrally disordered emitters. Our model is reflective of color center ensembles integrated into photonic crystal cavity arrays. Using the Quantum Master equation and the Effective Hamiltonian approaches, we study energy band formation and wavefunction properties in the open quantum Tavis–Cummings–Hubbard framework. We find conditions for polariton creation and (de)localization under experimentally relevant values of disorder in emitter frequencies, cavity resonance frequencies, and emitter-cavity coupling rates. To quantify these properties, we introduce two metrics, the polaritonic and nodal participation ratios, that characterize the light-matter hybridization and the node delocalization of the wavefunction, respectively. These new metrics combined with the Effective Hamiltonian approach prove to be a powerful toolbox for cavity quantum electrodynamical engineering of solid-state systems.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

CryoFold: Determining protein structures and data-guided ensembles from cryo-EM density maps

Cryoelectron microscopy requires molecular modeling for refinement of structures. Ensemble models arrive at low free-energy molecular structures, but are computationally expensive and limited to resolving only small proteins. Here, we introduce CryoFold, a pipeline of molecular dynamics simulations that determines ensembles of protein structures by integrating density data of varying sparsity at 3–5 Å resolution with sequence information and coarse-grained topological knowledge of the protein folds. We present six examples, folding proteins between 72 and 2,000 residues, including large membrane and multi-domain systems, and results from two Electron Microscopy Data Bank (EMDB) competitions. Driven by data from a single state, CryoFold discovers ensembles of common low-energy models together with rare low-probability structures that capture the equilibrium distribution of proteins constrained by the density maps. Many of these conformations are experimentally validated and functionally relevant. We arrive at a set of best practices for data-guided protein folding that are controlled using a Python graphical user interface (GUI).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Deep learning of accurate force field of ferroelectric HfO 2

The discovery of ferroelectricity in HfO 2 -based thin films opens up new opportunities for using this silicon-compatible ferroelectric to realize low-power logic circuits and high-density nonvolatile memories. The functional performances of ferroelectrics are intimately related to their dynamic responses to external stimuli such as electric fields at finite temperatures. Molecular dynamics is an ideal technique for investigating dynamical processes on large length and time scales, though its applications to new materials are often hindered by the limited availability and accuracy of classical force fields. Here we present a deep neural network–based interatomic force field of HfO 2 learned from ab initio data using a concurrent learning procedure. The model potential is able to predict structural properties such as elastic constants, equation of states, phonon dispersion relationships, and phase transition barriers of various hafnia polymorphs with accuracy comparable with density functional theory calculations. Here, the validity of this model potential is further confirmed by the reproduction of experimental sequences of temperature-driven ferroelectric-paraelectric phase transitions of HfO 2 with isobaric-isothermal ensemble molecular dynamics simulations. We suggest a general approach to extend the model potential of HfO 2 to related material systems including dopants and defects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles

An adequate characterization of internal modes of climate variability (MoV) is a prerequisite for both accurate seasonal predictions and climate change detection and attribution. Assessing the fidelity of climate models in simulating MoV is therefore essential; however, doing so is complicated by the large intrinsic variations in MoV and the limited span of the observational record. Large ensembles (LEs) provide a unique opportunity to assess model fidelity in simulating MoV and quantify intermodel contrasts. Here, in this work, these goals are pursued in four recently produced LEs: the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) versions 1 and 2 LEs, and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) versions 1 and 2 LEs. In general, the representation of global coupled modes is found to improve across successive E3SM and CESM versions in conjunction with the fidelity of the base state climate while the patterns of extratropical modes are well simulated across the ensembles. Various persistent shortcomings for all MoV are however identified and discussed. The results both demonstrate the successes of these recent model versions and suggest the potential for continued improvement in the representation of MoV with advances in model physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Response of Precipitation Extremes to the Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Global Temperature Change in a Comprehensive Suite of CESM1 Large Ensemble Simulation: Revisiting the Role of Forcing Agents Vs. the Role of Forcing Magnitudes

The response of precipitation extremes (PEs) to global warming is found to be nonlinear in Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and other global climate models (Pendergrass et al., 2019), which led to the concern that it is not accurate to approximate the response of PE to a single forcing as the difference between simulations with all forcing agents and those that exclude one specific forcing. This calls into question previous model-based results that the sensitivity of PE with warming due to aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that due to greenhouse gases (GHGs). We reevaluate the PE sensitivity to GHGs and aerosols using available CESM1 ensemble simulations. We show that although the PE response to warming is nonlinear in CESM1, especially for the high warming projected in the twenty-first-century, PE sensitivity to aerosols is still significantly stronger than that due to GHGs when the comparison is made within similar warming regimes to avoid the bias induced by the nonlinear behavior. But the difference is smaller than previously estimated. We also conclude that the additivity assumption is largely valid to isolate the PE response due to aerosol forcing from the paired simulations including the “all forcing” experiment when the warming regime is small (e.g., 1°C–2°C in the next few decades when aerosol forcing is projected to decline and becomes a major source of uncertainty for model projection).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling the Joint Effects of Vegetation Characteristics and Soil Properties on Ecosystem Dynamics in a Panama Tropical Forest

Abstract In tropical forests, both vegetation characteristics and soil properties are important not only for controlling energy, water, and gas exchanges directly but also determining the competition among species, successional dynamics, forest structure and composition. However, the joint effects of the two factors have received limited attention in Earth system model development. Here we use a vegetation demographic model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM), ELM‐FATES, to explore how plant traits and soil properties affect tropical forest growth and composition concurrently. A large ensemble of simulations with perturbed vegetation and soil hydrological parameters is conducted at the Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The simulations are compared against observed carbon, energy, and water fluxes. We find that soil hydrological parameters, particularly the scaling exponent of the soil retention curve ( B sw ), play crucial roles in controlling forest diversity, with higher B sw values (>7) favoring late successional species in competition, and lower B sw values (1 ∼ 7) promoting the coexistence of early and late successional plants. Considering the additional impact of soil properties resolves a systematic bias of FATES in simulating sensible/latent heat partitioning with repercussion on water budget and plant coexistence. A greater fraction of deeper tree roots can help maintain the dry‐season soil moisture and plant gas exchange. As soil properties are as important as vegetation parameters in predicting tropical forest dynamics, more efforts are needed to improve parameterizations of soil functions and belowground processes and their interactions with aboveground vegetation dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Water Systems of the Western US to Support Climate‐Resilient Electricity System Planning

Abstract Electricity and water systems in the Western US (WUS) are closely connected, with hydropower comprising 20% of total annual WUS generation, and electricity related to water comprising about 7% of total WUS electricity use. Because of these interdependencies, the threat of climate change to WUS resources will likely have compounding electricity impacts on the Western Interconnect grid. This study describes a WUS‐wide water system model with a particular emphasis on estimating climate impacts on hydropower generation and water‐related electricity use, which can be linked with a grid expansion model to support climate‐resilient electricity planning. The water system model combines climatically‐driven physical hydrology and management of both water supply and demand allocation, and is applied to an ensemble of 15 climate scenarios out to 2050. Model results show decreasing streamflow in key basins of the WUS under most scenarios. Annual water‐related electricity use increases up to 4%, and by up to 6% during the summer months, driven by growing agricultural demands met increasingly through a shift toward energy‐intensive groundwater to replace declining surface water. Total annual hydropower generation changes by +5% to −20% by mid‐century but declines in most scenarios, with decreases in summer generation by up to nearly −30%. Water‐related electricity use increases tend to coincide with hydropower generation declines, annually and seasonally, demonstrating the importance of concurrently evaluating the climate signal on both water‐for‐energy and energy‐for‐water to inform planning for grid reliability and decarbonization goals.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Analysis of Integrated Vapor Transport Biases

Abstract High-fidelity analyses and forecasts of integrated vapor transport (VT) are central to the study of Earth’s hydrological cycle as well as high-impact phenomena such as monsoons and atmospheric rivers. The impact of the in-line analysis correction-based additive inflation (ACAI) on IVT biases and forecast errors is examined within the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy ESPC) global coupled system. The ACAI technique uses atmospheric analysis corrections from the data assimilation system to approximate model bias and as a representation of stochastic model error to simultaneously reduce systematic and random errors and improve ensemble performance. ACAI reduces the global average magnitude of the 7- and 14-day IVT bias by 16%–17% during Northern Hemisphere summer, reaching 70% reductions in some tropical regions. The global average IVT bias reduction is similar to the bias reduction for low-level wind speed bias and considerably smaller than the bias reduction in total precipitable water. The localized regions where ACAI increases IVT bias occur where the control IVT biases change sign and structure with increasing forecast lead time, such as the South Asian monsoon region. Substituting analyzed wind or moisture fields for the forecast fields when calculating the forecast IVT confirms that, on average, wind errors dominate the IVT error calculation in the tropics, although wind and moisture error contributions are comparable in the extratropics. The existence of regions where using either analyzed winds or analyzed moisture increases IVT bias or mean absolute error reveals areas with compensating errors.

Reynolds, Carolyn A.↗

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems

Abstract. Two-way coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere is recognized as an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and can open windows of opportunity for improved forecasts. Model biases can, however, lead to a poor representation of such coupling processes; drifts in a model's circulation related to model biases, resolution, and parameterizations have the potential to feed back on the circulation and affect stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We introduce a set of diagnostics using readily available data that can be used to reveal these biases and then apply these diagnostics to 22 S2S forecast systems. In the Northern Hemisphere, nearly all S2S forecast systems underestimate the strength of the observed upward coupling from the troposphere to the stratosphere, downward coupling within the stratosphere, and the persistence of lower-stratospheric temperature anomalies. While downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is well represented in the multi-model ensemble mean, there is substantial intermodel spread likely related to how well each model represents tropospheric stationary waves. In the Southern Hemisphere, the stratospheric vortex is oversensitive to upward-propagating wave flux in the forecast systems. Forecast systems generally overestimate the strength of downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere, even as most underestimate the radiative persistence in the lower stratosphere. In both hemispheres, models with higher lids and a better representation of tropospheric quasi-stationary waves generally perform better at simulating these coupling processes.

Garfinkel, Chaim I. (ORCID:000000017258666X)↗

Operator dynamics in Floquet many-body systems

We study operator dynamics in many-body quantum systems, focusing on generic features of systems that are ergodic, spatially extended, and lack conserved densities. Quantum circuits of various types provide simple models for such systems. We focus on Floquet quantum circuits, comparing their behavior with what has been found previously for circuits that are random in time. Floquet circuits, which have discrete time-translation symmetry, represent an intermediate case between circuits that are random in time and lack any symmetry, and systems with a time-independent Hamiltonian and continuous time-translation invariance. By making this comparison, one of our aims is to identify signatures of time-translation symmetry in Floquet operator dynamics. To characterize behavior we examine a variety of quantities in solvable models and numerically: operator autocorrelation functions; the partial spectral form factor; the out-of-time-order correlator (OTOC); and the paths in operator space that make the dominant contributions to the ensemble-averaged autocorrelation functions. Our most striking result is that ensemble-averaged autocorrelation functions show behavior that is distinctively different in Floquet systems compared to systems in which successive time-steps are independent. Specifically, while average autocorrelation functions decay on a microscopic timescale for circuits that are random in time, in Floquet systems they have a late-time tail with a duration that grows parametrically with the size of the operator support. In the simplest models this tail is separated from the initial decay by a minimum, so that the average autocorrelation function has an intermediate-time peak. The existence of these tails provides a way to understand deviations of the spectral form factor from random matrix behavior at times shorter than the Thouless time. In contrast to this feature in autocorrelation functions, we find no new aspects to the behavior of OTOCs for Floquet models compared to random-in-time circuits. We show that this difference between averaged autocorrelation functions and OTOCs can be understood in terms of the paths in operator space that contribute to the two quantities: paths for the former retain a limited support at late times, while paths for the latter are dominated by operator spreading. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Yoshimura, Takato (ORCID:0000000309159846)↗

In Situ/Operando Probing of Dynamic Phase Structures of Alumina‐Supported Ultrasmall Copper‐Gold Alloy Nanoparticles Under Reaction Conditions

Abstract The ability to control phase structures and surface sites of ultrasmall alloy nanoparticles under reaction conditions is essential for preparing catalysts by design. This is, however, challenging due to limited understanding of the atomic‐scale phases and their correlation with the ensemble‐averaged structures and activities of catalysts during catalytic reactions. We reveal here a dynamic structural stability of alumina‐supported ultrasmall and equiatomic copper‐gold alloy nanoparticles under reaction conditions as a model system in the in situ/operando study. In situ atomic‐scale morphological tracking under oxygen reveals temperature‐dependent dynamic crystalline‐amorphous dual‐phase structures, showing dynamic stability over an elevated temperature range. This atomic‐scale dynamic phase stability coincides with a “conversion plateau” observed for carbon monoxide oxidation on the catalyst. It is substantiated by the stable lattice ordering/disordering structures and surface sites with oscillatory characteristics shown by operando ensemble‐average structural tracking of the catalyst during the oxidation reaction. The understanding of the atomic‐scale dynamic phase structures in correlation with the ensemble‐average dynamic ordering/disordering phase structures and surface sites provides fresh insights into the unique synergy of the supported alloy nanoparticles. This understanding has implications for the design and structural tuning of active and stable ultrasmall alloy catalysts under elevated temperatures.

Chemistry↗

Nonlinear Ensemble Filtering with Diffusion Models: Application to the Surface Quasigeostrophic Dynamics

The intersection between classical data assimilation methods and novel machine learning techniques has attracted significant interest in recent years. Here, we explore another promising solution in which diffusion models are used to formulate a robust nonlinear ensemble filter for sequential data assimilation. Unlike standard machine learning methods, the proposed ensemble score filter (EnSF) is completely training free and can efficiently generate a set of analysis ensemble members. Here, in this study, we apply the EnSF to a surface quasigeostrophic model and compare its performance against the popular local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which makes Gaussian assumptions in the analysis step. Numerical tests demonstrate that EnSF maintains stable performance in the absence of localization and for a variety of experimental settings. We find that while LETKF maintains optimal performance in the case of linear observations of the entire state and a perfect model, EnSF shows improvements over LETKF when nonlinear observations are assimilated and the system is subject to unexpected model errors. A spectral decomposition of the analysis results in this nonlinear observation regime shows that the largest improvements over LETKF occur at large scales (small wavenumbers), where LETKF lacks sufficient ensemble spread. Overall, this initial application of EnSF to a geophysical model of intermediate complexity motivates further development of the algorithm for more realistic problems.

Artificial intelligence↗

Calculation of mode lifetimes in weakly anharmonic solids using self-consistent ensemble eigenstates of the Liouvillian

Recent schemes for the efficient calculation of vibrational mode frequencies and lifetimes in weakly anharmonic systems such as solid crystal structures have shown promise, with simple relationships being observed between low order moments of the Liouvillian and the observed lifetime. While only shown empirically, two parameters seemed sufficient to determine the lifetime to high accuracy over a large range of temperatures for a few simple low degree of freedom models and a Lennard–Jones solid. In this paper we analytically reproduce the numerically observed relationship using a few generally applicable assumptions about the density of states. This advance is made by studying the autocorrelation based on an “ensemble eigenstate” of the Liouvillian. We propose the use of this ensemble eigenstate as the basis for autocorrelations to simplify calculations in richer systems. Finally, an analysis is also performed of the relationship between canonical and microcanonical autocorrelation functions and a long standing error in the long time behavior of such functions originally presented by Sen, Sinkovits, and Chakravarti is corrected.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗