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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance

We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), and a WRF-Solar multi-physics ensemble (WRF-Solar PHYS). The performances of the four forecasts are evaluated using irradiance retrievals from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) over the contiguous United States. We focus on the predictability of the day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts during the year of 2018. The results show that the ensemble forecasts improve the quality of the forecasts, compared to the deterministic prediction system, by accounting for the uncertainty derived by the ensemble members. However, the three ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident forecasts due to a lack of calibration. In particular, WRF-Solar EPS produces less optically thick clouds than the other forecasts, which explains the larger positive bias in WRF-Solar EPS (31.7 W/m 2 ) than in the other models (22.7–23.6 W/m 2 ). This study confirms that the WRF-Solar EPS reduced the forecast error by 7.5% in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) compared to WRF-Solar DET, and provides in-depth comparisons of forecast abilities with the conventional scientific probabilistic approaches (i.e., SKEBS and a multi-physics ensemble). Guidelines for improving the performance of WRF-Solar EPS in the future are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Multidimensional Spatial-Temporal Hydropower Operational Flexibilities by Modeling and Optimizing Water-Constrained Cascading Hydroelectric Systems

Because of unique characteristics such as clean and cost-competitive electricity as well as fast-ramping and storage abilities, the power industry continues to evolve its operation strategies for cascading hydroelectric (CHE) systems for providing enhanced values to the grid, especially under the deeper renewable resource integration. However, existing operation practices of CHEs predate the integration of renewables, which could prohibit the effective utilization of their inherent flexibilities in delivering maximum financial benefits and providing valuable grid services to the power system and electricity market operations. Indeed, modeling and optimizing these resource-limited while flexible CHE assets with uncertainties and imperfect information across multiple spatial-temporal dimensions present significant challenges. To facilitate CHE facility operators in effectively coordinating water usage and hydropower plant operations across multiple timescales, this project aims to fill the existing gaps by developing a suite of accurate water inflow (WI) forecast models as well as enhanced CHE modeling and optimization approaches with proper consideration of their unique characteristics, which would help explore their multidimensional spatial-temporal operational flexibility potentials. The developed approaches could better align reservoir operation strategies with variability and uncertainty of future water availability. They can also promote more effective utilization of multidimensional spatial-temporal hydropower operational flexibility potentials by designing long-term evacuation plans of reservoirs and short-term operation of CHEs, along with their coordination with other types of renewables. The project leverages various resources to facilitate the research and development activities, including actual characteristics data of CHE systems and a library of current and future cases of Portland General Electric (PGE). These realistic data enable the project team to study how to maximize the value of CHEs under current and future portfolios and evaluate opportunities to improve operation practices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing flexibility for climate change using seasonal energy storage (aquifer thermal energy storage) in distributed energy systems

Long-term energy storage is expected to play a vital role in the deep decarbonization of building energy sectors, while enhancing the flexibility of buildings to withstand future climate variations. However, it is challenging to design distributed multi-energy systems (DMES) while taking into account the uncertainties introduced by climate change, since stochastic optimization of such systems is difficult. The present study introduces a stochastic optimization model to address this bottleneck, taking into account DMES including aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as the long-term thermal storage. For the first time, a novel optimization algorithm links ATES with the DMES optimization model with the support of a simplified geotechnical model. Subsequently, a case study was conducted, focusing on a residential district in Chicago where the impact of future climate condition, energy demand, and solar and wind energy potentials were evaluated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) data (up to 2080) and the EnergyPlus model. The study revealed that ATES is an attractive way to improve the renewable energy penetration level and minimize the dependence on fossil fuels with reasonable support from the grid to assist the fluctuations in both demand and generation. Furthermore, ATES notably reduces fuel consumption and dependence while greatly enhancing the flexibility of the energy system to withstand fluctuations in demand and renewable energy generation brought by future climate variations. These qualities will make ATES an important part of distributed energy systems, even though it is not currently the lowest cost alternative due to lack of technology maturity. Furthermore, the design platform introduced in the present study can be used to design DMES enhancing flexibility to accommodate future climate variations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The global energy footprint of information and communication technology electronics in connected Internet-of-Things devices

Information and communication technology (ICT) has been critical to the emergence of a new Internet-of-Things (IoT) era, as a rapidly increasing number and variety of IoT electronic devices in a wide range of end-use sectors require massive data communication in terms of volume, velocity/speed, and variety. Additionally, semiconductor technology advancements have played a key role in ICT and unlike the past ICT energy footprint analysis, which focused on the final electronic product, an attempt has been made to examine the global energy impacts for the period 2016–2025 based on the market forecasts of three major IoT IC types, i.e., sensors and actuators, connectivity, and processor ICs distributed among four major IoT device components.Total global IoT semiconductor primary energy demand is projected to increase from 2 EJ in 2016 to 35 EJ by 2025, resulting mainly from a substantial projected increase energy needed in the manufacturing of ICs, with growth in the use of sensors and energy-intensive next fab generation manufacturing. Unlike the trend in manufacturing energy, total global operational energy use is projected to decrease significantly with the development of smaller transistor size, low-power devices, and faster wireless data communication technology. Total operational energy is projected to significantly decrease from 118 TWh/year (1,2 EJ/year) to less than 1 TWh/year (0.003 EJ/year) in spite of a significantly higher anticipated growth in its market size during the 2016–2025 forecast period. Its annual share of total primary energy use is projected to reach an insignificant level of 0.01% by the end of 2025, consistent with the past limited electronic product life cycle analyses besides the analysis focus here limited to ICs in IoT devices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chapter 7: Predictive Analytics in Future Power Systems: A Panorama and State-of-the-Art of Deep Learning Applications

The challenges surrounding the optimal operation of power systems are growing in various dimensions, due in part to increasingly distributed energy resources and a progression towards large-scale transportation electrification. Currently, the increasing uncertainties associated with both renewable energy generation and demand are largely being managed by increasing operational reserves - potentially at the cost of suboptimal economic conditions - in order to maintain the reliability of the system. This chapter looks at the big picture role of forecasting in power systems from generation to consumption and provides a comprehensive review of traditional approaches for forecasting generation and load in various contexts. This chapter then takes a deep dive into the state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning approaches for power systems forecasting. Furthermore, a case study of multi-time-horizon solar irradiance forecasting using deep learning is discussed in detail. Smart grids form the backbone of the future interdependent networks. For addressing the challenges associated with the operations of smart grid, development and wide adoption of machine learning and deep learning algorithms capable of producing better forecasting accuracies is urgently needed. Along with exploring the implementation and benefits of these approaches, this chapter also considers the strengths and limitations of deep learning algorithms for power systems forecasting applications. This chapter, thus, provides a panoramic view of state-of-the-art of predictive analytics in power systems in the context of future smart grid operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cluster infall for mass calibration in the stage-IV era

The outskirts of galaxy clusters present a promising avenue for constraining cluster masses in a way that is robust to the impact of baryonic physics. We assess the accuracy to which the cluster infall regions can be used for cluster mass calibration. Building on previous work, we parametrize the velocity distribution 𝑃⁡(𝑣r,𝑣tan|𝑟,𝑀) of dark matter halos on scales 𝑟 ≥ 5⁢ℎ −1 Mpc as the product of the marginalized distribution 𝑃⁡(𝑣 r |𝑟,𝑀) and the conditional distribution 𝑃⁡(𝑣 tan |𝑣 r ,𝑟,𝑀), calibrating the radial and mass dependence of these distributions in numerical simulations. We then project our model along the line of sight to obtain accurate predictions for the distributions of line-of-sight velocities at a given projected radius and cluster mass 𝑃⁡(𝑣 LOS |𝑅,𝑀), which we can observe with spectroscopic survey data. Furthermore, with our model, we forecast that spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument can constrain cluster masses with subpercent-level precision, comparable to that of stage-IV weak lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA)/Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) for Marine Energy (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The objective of the Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA) project was to reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) energy by leveraging research, development, and testing capabilities at Oregon State University, University of Washington, and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. ALFA is a project within the Pacific Marine Energy Center (PMEC; formerly NNMREC), a multi-institution entity with a diverse funding base that focuses on research and development for marine renewables. The ALFA project aimed to accelerate the development of next-generation arrays of wave energy conversion (WEC) and tidal energy conversion (TEC) devices through a suite of field-focused R&D activities spanning a broad range of strategic opportunity areas identified in the Funding Opportunity Announcement: • Device and/or array operation and maintenance (O&M) logistics development; • High-fidelity resource characterization and/or modeling technique development and validation; • Array-specific component technology development (e.g. moorings and foundations, transmission, and other offshore grid components); • Array performance testing and evaluation; and • Novel cost-effective environmental monitoring techniques and instrumentation testing and evaluation. The objective of the Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) was to accelerate the development of next-generation marine energy conversion systems. The LCP aimed to achieve these project objectives in collaboration with the national laboratories by: • Developing concept generation and assessment tools; • Improving access to existing testing resources; • Validating collision risk models between fish and turbines; and • Advancing analysis and simulation capabilities for wave-WEC interactions and PTO analysis in nonlinear ocean waves. The ALFA portion of the project was comprised of six overarching technical tasks: • Task 1: Debris Modeling, Detection and Mitigation; • Task 2: Autonomous Monitoring & Intervention; • Task 3: Resource Characterization for Extreme Conditions; • Task 4: Robust Models for Design of Offshore Anchoring and Mooring Systems; • Task 5: Performance Enhancement for Marine Energy Converter (MEC) Arrays; and • Task 6: Evaluating Sampling Techniques for MHK Biological Monitoring. The LCP was divided into four overarching technical tasks: • Task 7: Project Management and Reporting • Task 8: Novel Design and Assessment Methodologies for Wave Energy Converter Design (Wave- SPARC) • Task 9: Testing Access for Commercial Marine Renewable Energy Technology Developers • Task 10: Quantifying Collision Risk for Fish and Turbines • Task 11: Nonlinear Ocean Waves and PTO Control Strategy Each ALFA/LCP task listed above functioned as a separate and discreet project. A final Technical Report was written for each individual task and these reports were uploaded to OSTI, after receiving DOE approval. The following document is a compilation of each of these final, approved reports arranged as individual chapters.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generative AI for Power Grid Operations

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has captured into the mainstream, demonstrating capabilities that once belonged solely to the realm of human cognition. From defeating world champions in complex games to generating human-quality text and images, Generative AI has proven its potential to revolutionize countless industries. The electric power grid is no exception. Generative AI's ability to process vast amounts of data rapidly, assist decision support and identify patterns could significantly enhance power grid operations. For example, Generative AI could improve state estimation where measurements are not available or integrate renewable energy sources more efficiently with probabilistic forecasting. The key contributions of this whitepaper are outlined below: (1) Comprehensive overview of Generative AI's applications in power grid operations: It highlights the opportunities in areas such as forecasting, state estimation, and demonstrating the potential for enhancing efficiency, reliability, and resilience. (2) Expanding Generative AI's impact through synergies with emerging technologies: The paper introduce NREL developed eGridGPT and explores how AI orchestration, multi-agent systems, and Digital Twins can collaborate to optimize grid operations, addressing the complexities of a decarbonized and electrified future. (3) In-depth analysis of challenges in implementing Generative AI: This includes considerations like data availability and quality, model validation, certification, and ethical concerns, ensuring responsible AI deployment. (4) Emphasizing human-AI collaboration: The whitepaper underscores the importance of trustworthy, transparency, and explainability in AI systems to promote seamless interaction between human operators and AI, ultimately improving decision-making. (5) Exploring future research and development: It identifies critical areas for further advancement to fully realize Generative AI's potential in power grid operations. This whitepaper serves as a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers looking to harness Generative AI for a more reliable, stable, and cost-effective power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Wind Data Hub, also known as The Data Archive and Portal.

The Wind Data Hub, or WDH (formerly known as the Data Archive and Portal), is established by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO). The WDH provides secure, timely, easy, and open access to all laboratory, field, and benchmark model data produced by land-based and offshore projects funded by WETO.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Harvesting the low-hanging fruit of high energy savings -- Virtual Occupancy using Wi-Fi Data

Approximately 20% of primary energy consumed in the U.S. is attributed to HVAC use. Ideally, HVAC operation would be driven by actual building occupancy, but lack of reliable occupancy information often results in the use of conservative static schedules. This disparity is even more pronounced in a college campus, where the function of each space differs by building (classrooms, offices, libraries) and the class schedules change frequently -- every semester, day of week, and hour. While several research papers propose the use of counts of the Wi-Fi connections (e.g., phones, computers) as a proxy for occupancy, few real-world implementations exist. This paper describes the development and deployment of an open-source Wi-Fi-to-Occupancy software library in 65 buildings of a college campus, and the planned integration with the building energy management and control system at the building scale. Over a year of Wi-Fi data was gathered into distinct academic periods, including fall and spring semester, academic breaks, and summer sessions. Patterns such as students moving between classrooms, closing laptops before exams, etc., can be visualized from the data. Approximating occupancy from Wi-Fi data presents challenges which we address in this project -- for example, identifying static devices, or estimating the ratio of devices per person. Utilizing real-time occupancy data to inform optimal HVAC schedules and ventilation rates creates the potential to identify and reduce energy waste. Other potential applications include forecasting occupancy, and using Wi-Fi data to predict peak demands. Finally, the paper discusses how to easily scale these tools to other buildings.

Pritoni, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage the forecast error associated with these resources. Because wind and solar forecast errors tend to be poorly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the value of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeast United States. It finds that forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce physical (MW) reserve requirements (from 25%-26% to 18%-19% of average load in high solar scenarios). It finds that the value of forecast error reserve sharing declines with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower wholesale energy and reserve prices. Even with declines in wholesale prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value (as much as $\$$400 million per year in a high solar scenario), though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage, this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices. The results suggest the importance of coordinated capacity expansion planning for forecast error reserve sharing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Integrated Platform for Wind Plant Operations: From Atmosphere to Electrons to the Grid

Under the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid project (A2e2g), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is developing an optimization platform for wind plant operations. The platform merges forecasting tools with aerodynamic and economic models in order to identify optimal operating schedules and controller functions that will maximize a wind plant's value streams for energy and other grid services. In this presentation, we will describe functionalities of the platform. We will also discuss the implications the use of the platform might have for understanding and valuing the capabilities of wind resources for power system operations.

A2E2G↗
DOE OSTI2020

New Technologies for Power System Operation and Analysis, 1st Edition

New Technologies for Power System Operation and Analysis considers the very latest developments in renewable energy integration and system operation, including electricity markets and wide-area monitoring systems and forecasting. Helping readers quickly grasp the essential information needed to address renewable energy integration challenges, this new book looks at basic power system mathematical models, advanced renewable integration and system optimizations from transmission and distribution system sides. Sections cover wind, solar, gas and petroleum, making this a useful reference for all engineers interested in power system operation.

electricity markets↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fisher Forecasting for the DESC with $\texttt{Augur}$

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) has begun its ten-year survey of the entire visible southern hemisphere. To ensure robust cosmological measurements, computationally inexpensive investigations of modeling choices must be made to gauge the performance of proposed cosmological analyses. In this paper, we introduce the $\texttt{Augur}$ tool of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), which provides Fisher forecasts for cosmological inference for the LSST using software frameworks designed for DESC science. We test the pipeline by comparing it to forecasts produced by external code and direct sampling of the posterior via nested sampling methods, finding good agreement between all methods. We additionally investigate a range of modeling and hyperparameter choices for a 3$\times$2pt investigation in harmonic space, providing users with diagnostics to obtain reliable forecasts. $\texttt{Augur}$ will be continually updated to be compatible with the other tools in the DESC software ecosystem as additional probes and functionality become available.

Rogozenski, Paul [Carnegie Mellon U.; Arizona U.] ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasted Dynamic Line Ratings for Regional Transmission Lines

This report was prepared for the Wind Energy Technology Office for the FY 2022, quarter 3 deliverable. This details the use of forecasted dynamic line rating as an improvement over static rating for three transmission lines in three regions of interest. A selection of wind plants across Idaho, the Columbia River Gorge and offshore wind in the NYSERDA territory were modeled for their concurrent cooling effects for dynamic line rating. Regional transmission lines for the wind plant interconnections were determined and a CFD domain was created to determine local wind flows over the lines. A dynamic line rating for each of the lines was calculated for both weather observation data and HRRR model forecast data. The comparison of peaks in the wind power production were compared to the DLR peaks. It was determined that for shorter regional transmission lines, the effect of concurrent cooling that commonly occur with gen-tie lines were still valid. Concurrent cooling effects drop as the length of the regional transmission lines increase in distance from the wind plants. In addition, the accuracy of the forecasted ampacity to the weather observation data for ampacity was assessed. In general, the accuracy was best for the INL region with the NOAA-maintained sites. The Columbia River Gorge and Long Island sites showed similar levels of accuracy for the forecasted DLR. The accuracy levels were around 11% for the INL region, 15% for Columbia River Gorge and 7% for New York Long Island. The higher error for the Columbia Gorge region is likely due to the sparse availability of weather stations available, whereas both the INL site and Long Island are well instrumented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Resource Management Solutions

There are fewer conventional, dispatchable generation resources and more variable renewable energy (VRE) and distributed energy resources (DERs). There is more uncertainty from bulk-level VRE and net demand from distribution systems with high DER levels. FAST-DERMS aims to develop and demonstrate a scalable solution for managing uncertainties in supply and demand at the grid edge. We propose that distribution system operators (DSOs) provide firm net load forecasts to the bulk system operator's energy management system (EMS).

distributed energy resources↗
DOE OSTI2023

Day-ahead continuous double auction-based peer-to-peer energy trading platform incorporating trading losses and network utilisation fee

Integration of distributed energy resources, such as photovoltaic solar (PV), introduces new opportunities to establish local energy market frameworks to improve renewable energy utilisation in residential sectors. Such peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading refers to a local market structure where customers (and prosumers) interact to share excess PV generation to enhance the individual and community social welfare. In this work, a day-ahead continuous double auction (CDA)-based P2P market structure considering network losses and network utilisation fees was designed. Day-ahead PV energy is modelled using fractional integral polynomials and the output is forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average model for each market interval. Based on the customer load and excess PV energy, the CDA market is cleared using a bid/ask matching mechanism. The performance of the P2P market was evaluated by computing different welfare metrics while analysing the effect of network constraints. The results show that the designed CDA-based P2P market structure increases the social welfare of all participants by an average of 17.75% compared to the baseline for the presented cases. Moreover, the impact of the forecasting error between the day-ahead and real-time market was also quantified.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep-Learning-Based Multi-Timescale Load Forecasting in Buildings: Opportunities and Challenges from Research to Deployment

Electricity load forecasting for buildings and campuses is becoming increasingly important as the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) grows. Efficient operation and dispatch of DERs require reasonably accurate predictions of future energy consumption in order to conduct near-real-time optimized dispatch of on-site generation and storage assets. Electric utilities have traditionally performed load forecasting for load pockets spanning large geographic areas, and therefore, forecasting has not been a common practice by buildings and campus operators. Given the growing trends of research and prototyping in the grid-interactive efficient buildings domain, characteristics beyond simple algorithm forecast accuracy are important in determining the algorithm's true utility for smart buildings. Other characteristics include the overall design of the deployed architecture and the operational efficiency of the forecasting system. In this work, we present a deep-learning-based load forecasting system that predicts the building load at 1-hour intervals for 18 hours in the future. We also discuss challenges associated with the real-time deployment of such systems as well as the research opportunities presented by a fully functional forecasting system that has been developed within the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Intelligent Campus program.

building load forecasting↗