Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “elevation trend”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

Measurements of spectral and total emittance of reinforced carbon-carbon

Elevated temperature measurements of the spectral emittance of reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) as the thermal protection material for the leading edge areas of the Space Shuttle Orbiter were carried out in situ, with environments provided by arc-heated streams of air and argon. A monochromator, infrared pyrometers, and thermocouples were used in evaluating the response of the RCC test specimens during the emittance measurements. Results indicate that the material is nongray, with lowest spectral emittance at the short wavelengths and with relatively high total emittance. The trend of the total emittance data suggests a slight decrease in total emittance with increasing temperature, although the emittance value stabilizes with continuing exposure.

Grinberg, I. M.↗

CO Chondrite Parent Body Processing as Recorded by Noble Gases

**Introduction:** CO carbonaceous chondrites are among the most primitive meteorites, of which some experienced mild degrees of thermal alteration (up to 500 °C) in their parent asteroid. Previous studies on aqueously altered CM, CY and CR chondrites have shown that the noble gases preserved in those meteorites can be used to assess the extent of parent body processing. This is mostly due to an Ar-rich carrier phase being susceptible to aqueous alteration. In this study, we follow up on these findings by investigating the effects of mild thermal alteration on the noble gas content of CO chondrites. They are subclassified from petrologic subtype 3.0 (e.g., Yamato-81025) to 3.8 (e.g., Isna) according to the degree of thermal alteration experienced. Understanding these effects does not only help to distinguish the most primitive samples from the severely altered ones, but also adds to the picture of the primordial volatile composition and distribution, as preserved in the most primitive material which accreted from the solar nebula at different heliocentric distances. Additionally, we search for pairing among samples, as part of an ongoing survey of Antarctic CO chondrites. **Experimental:** Noble gas measurements were conducted on aliquots of ~20-25 mg from 16 different samples of varying petrologic subtype from 3.0 to 3.8. The gas extraction occurred in one temperature step at ~1700 °C, followed by separation into three fractions, He-Ne, Ar, and Kr-Xe, measured successively in a custom-built mass spectrometer. For each sample, complete gas extraction was verified by a re-extraction step at ~1750 °C. Details on the sample preparation and measurement protocols can be found in. **Results and Discussion:** In most cases, the gas concentrations for all five noble gases decrease with increasing petrologic subtype, and the trend is most pronounced for Ne. An exception is e.g. CO3.0 Colony, which is strongly terrestrially weathered. CO3.8 Isna shows an unusually short expo-sure time to cosmic rays (~0.15 Ma), which may be explained by a direct injection into a mean orbital resonance shortly after collision. The currently ill-defined Ar-rich carrier phase, found only in the least aqueously altered CM and CR samples, is still abundantly present in the predominately anhydrous CO chondrites, indicating that this component is less susceptible to moderately elevated temperatures. No CO chondrites examined so far contain solar wind, supporting the hypothesis that CO chondrites originate from the asteroidal interior. It thus remains enigmatic which material could account for the surface layer.

Noble gas↗

Impacts of land use change and elevated CO 2 on the interannual variations and seasonal cycles of gross primary productivity in China

Climate change, rising CO 2 concentration, and landuse and land cover change (LULCC) are primary driving forces for terrestrialgross primary productivity (GPP), but their impacts on the temporal changesin GPP are uncertain. In this study, the effects of the three main factorson the interannual variation (IAV) and seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of GPPin China were investigated using 12 terrestrial biosphere models from theMulti-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project. Thesimulated ensemble mean value of China's GPP between 1981 and 2010, drivenby common climate forcing, LULCC and CO 2 data, was found to be7.4±1.8 Pg C yr -1 . In general, climate was the dominant controlfactor of the annual trends, IAV and seasonality of China's GPP. Theoverall rising CO2 led to enhanced plant photosynthesis, thusincreasing annual mean and IAV of China's total GPP, especially innortheastern and southern China, where vegetation is dense. LULCC decreasedthe IAV of China's total GPP by ~7%, whereas rising CO 2 induced an increase of 8 %. Compared to climate change andelevated CO 2 , LULCC showed less contributions to GPP's temporalvariation, and its impact acted locally, mainly in southwestern China.Furthermore, this study also examined subregional contributions to thetemporal changes in China's total GPP. Southern and southeastern Chinashowed higher contributions to China's annual GPP, whereas southwestern andcentral parts of China explained larger fractions of the IAV in China's GPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Behavior and mechanisms of Doppler wind lidar error in varying stability regimes

Abstract. Wind lidars are widespread and important tools in atmospheric observations. An intrinsic part of lidar measurement error is due to atmospheric variability in the remote-sensing scan volume. This study describes and quantifies the distribution of measurement error due to turbulence in varying atmospheric stability. While the lidar error model is general, we demonstrate the approach using large ensembles of virtual WindCube V2 lidar performing a profiling Doppler-beam-swinging scan in quasi-stationary large-eddy simulations (LESs) of convective and stable boundary layers. Error trends vary with the stability regime, time averaging of results, and observation height. A systematic analysis of the observation error explains dominant mechanisms and supports the findings of the empirical results. Treating the error under a random variable framework allows for informed predictions about the effect of different configurations or conditions on lidar performance. Convective conditions are most prone to large errors (up to 1.5 m s−1 in 1 Hz wind speed in strong convection), driven by the large vertical velocity variances in convective conditions and the high elevation angle of the scanning beams (62∘). Range-gate weighting induces a negative bias into the horizontal wind speeds near the surface shear layer (−0.2 m s−1 in the stable test case). Errors in the horizontal wind speed and direction computed from the wind components are sensitive to the background wind speed but have negligible dependence on the relative orientation of the instrument. Especially during low winds and in the presence of large errors in the horizontal velocity estimates, the reported wind speed is subject to a systematic positive bias (up to 0.4 m s−1 in 1 Hz measurements in strong convection). Vector time-averaged measurements can improve the behavior of the error distributions (reducing the 10 min wind speed error standard deviation to <0.3 m s−1 and the bias to <0.1 m s−1 in strong convection) with a predictable effectiveness related to the number of decorrelated samples in the time window. Hybrid schemes weighting the 10 min scalar- and vector-averaged lidar measurements are shown to be effective at reducing the wind speed biases compared to cup measurements in most of the simulated conditions, with time averages longer than 10 min recommended for best use in some unstable conditions. The approach in decomposing the error mechanisms with the help of the LES flow field could be extended to more complex measurement scenarios and scans.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Atmospheric pressure, density, temperature and wind variations between 50 and 200 km

Data on atmospheric pressure, density, temperature and winds between 50 and 200 km were collected from sources including Meteorological Rocket Network data, ROBIN falling sphere data, grenade release and pitot tube data, meteor winds, chemical release winds, satellite data, and others. These data were analyzed by a daily difference method and results on the distribution statistics, magnitude, and spatial structure of the irregular atmospheric variations are presented. Time structures of the irregular variations were determined by the analysis of residuals from harmonic analysis of time series data. The observed height variations of irregular winds and densities are found to be in accord with a theoretical relation between these two quantities. The latitude variations (at 50 - 60 km height) show an increasing trend with latitude. A possible explanation of the unusually large irregular wind magnitudes of the White Sands MRN data is given in terms of mountain wave generation by the Sierra Nevada range about 1000 km west of White Sands. An analytical method is developed which, based on an analogy of the irregular motion field with axisymmetric turbulence, allows measured or model correlation or structure functions to be used to evaluate the effective frequency spectra of scalar and vector quantities of a spacecraft moving at any speed and at any trajectory elevation angle.

Justus, C. G.↗

In situ observations of BrO over Antarctica - ER-2 aircraft results from 54 deg S to 72 deg S latitude

Bromine monoxide was observed in situ during nine flights of the NASA ER-2 aircraft from Punta Arenas, Chile (54 deg S latitude), to 72 deg S latitude over the Palmer Peninsula, Antarctica. The first flight for the BrO detection system was on August 28. The distribution of BrO inside the chemically perturbed region defined by greatly elevated ClO abundances was different from that found just outside. Inside, the BrO mixing ratio was 6.1 + or - 1.1 pptv above the 440 K potential temperature surface, 4.7 + or - 2.0 pptv between the 400 and 440 K surfaces, and less than 4 pptv below the 400 K surface. At high latitudes outside the chemically perturbed region, the BrO mixing ratio was 5.4 + or - 1.4 pptv near the 450 K surface, but decreased to 2.9 + or - 1.2 pptv at the 420 K surface. The abundance of BrO showed no discernible temporal trend during the course of the nine flights. Away from the south polar region, at latitudes between 47 deg S and 37 deg N and potential temperatures between 435 and 500 K (18.5- to 20.7-km altitude), the BrO mixing ratio was 0.5-3.0 pptv.

Brune, W. H.↗

Secular Climate Change on Mars: An Update Using One Mars Year of MSL Pressure Data

The South Polar Residual Cap (SPRC) on Mars is an icy reservoir of CO2. If all the CO2 trapped in the SPRC were released to the atmosphere the mean annual global surface pressure would rise by approximately 20 Pa. Repeated MOC and HiRISE imaging of scarp retreat within the SPRC led to suggestions that the SPRC is losing mass. Estimates for the loss rate vary between 0. 5 Pa per Mars Decade to 13 Pa per Mars Decade. Assuming 80% of this loss goes directly into the atmosphere, an estimate based on some modeling (Haberle and Kahre, 2010), and that the loss is monotonic, the global annual mean surface pressure should have increased between approximately 1-20 Pa since the Viking mission (approximately 20 Mars years ago). Surface pressure measurements by the Phoenix Lander only 2.5 Mars years ago were found to be consistent with these loss rates. Last year at this meeting we compared surface pressure data from the MSL mission through sol 360 with that from Viking Lander 2 (VL-2) for the same period to determine if the trend continues. The results were ambiguous. This year we have a full Mars year of MSL data to work with. Using the Ames GCM to compensate for dynamics and environmental differences, our analysis suggests that the mean annual pressure has decreased by approximately 8 Pa since Viking. This result implies that the SPRC has gained (not lost) mass since Viking. However, the estimated uncertainties in our analysis are easily at the 10 Pa level and possibly higher. Chief among these are the hydrostatic adjustment of surface pressure from grid point elevations to actual elevations and the simulated regional environmental conditions at the lander sites. For these reasons, the most reasonable conclusion is that there is no significant difference in the size of the atmosphere between now and Viking. This implies, but does not demand, that the mass of the SPRC has not changed since Viking. Of course, year-to-year variations are possible as implied by the Phoenix data. Given that there has been no unusual behavior in the climate system as observed by a variety of spacecraft at Mars since Phoenix, its seems more likely that the Phoenix data simply did not have a long enough record to accurately determine annual mean pressure changes as Haberle and Kahre (2010) cautioned. In the absence of a strong signal in the MSL data, we conclude that if the SPRC is loosing mass it is not going into the atmosphere reservoir.

Phoenix data↗

Integrating Contaminant Source Indicators, Water Quality Measures, and Ecotoxicity to Characterize Contaminant Mixtures and Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance (PFAS) Variability in an Urban Watershed

Thousands of chemical contaminants threaten watersheds but are time and cost prohibitive to monitor. Identifying their sources, transport, and ecological risk is limited in heterogeneous urban watersheds. We present an integrative watershed approach using source-specific indicator compounds, common water quality measures, and ecotoxicity assays to examine the distribution of contaminant mixtures in an urbanized watershed. Indicator compound concentrations were temporally and spatially distributed for treated/untreated sewage (sucralose, artificial sweetener), road runoff (diphenyl-guanidine [DPG] and 6PPD-quinone [6PPD-Q], automobile tire additives), and lawncare runoff (aminomethanephosphonic acid (AMPA), major degradant of the herbicide glyphosate). Sucralose was predominately sourced from treated wastewater; measurable concentrations in tributaries indicated raw sewage inputs. DPG and 6PPD-Q concentrations correlated to road density during base flow and were elevated during stormflow. AMPA was measurable spring through fall, especially where lawns were dense. When specific sources dominated flow, water quality measures correlated with wastewater (sulfate, potassium, chloride, and sodium) and road runoff (chromium and lead) indicators. The limited behavioral toxicity observed in exposed zebrafish (Danio rerio) (18%) was not well explained by source-indicators. PFAS concentrations were highly variable spatially but not well explained by our source-specific indicator compounds. Here, more costly compound-specific monitoring may be necessary when multiple sources exist or when unexpected toxicity trends occur.

computer simulations↗

Two decades of fumigation data from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment facility

Abstract The Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) facility is the longest running open-air carbon dioxide and ozone enrichment facility in the world. For over two decades, soybean, maize, and other crops have been exposed to the elevated carbon dioxide and ozone concentrations anticipated for late this century. The facility, located in East Central Illinois, USA, exposes crops to different atmospheric concentrations in replicated octagonal ~280 m 2 Free Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) treatment plots. Each FACE plot is paired with an untreated control (ambient) plot. The experiment provides important ground truth data for predicting future crop productivity. Fumigation data from SoyFACE were collected every four seconds throughout each growing season for over two decades. Here, we organize, quality control, and collate 20 years of data to facilitate trend analysis and crop modeling efforts. This paper provides the rationale for and a description of the SoyFACE experiments, along with a summary of the fumigation data and collation process, weather and ambient data collection procedures, and explanations of air pollution metrics and calculations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Antarctic Sea-Ice Freeboard and Estimated Thickness from NASA's ICESat and IceBridge Observations

ICESat completed 18 observational campaigns during its lifetime from 2003 to 2009. Data from all of the 18 campaign periods are used in this study. Most of the operational periods were between 34 and 38 days long. Because of laser failure and orbit transition from 8-day to 91-day orbit, there were four periods lasting 57, 16, 23, and 12 days. IceBridge data from 2009, 2010, and 2011 are used in this study. Since 2009, there are 19 Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) campaigns, and eight Land, Vegetation, and Ice Sensor (LVIS) campaigns over the Antarctic sea ice. Freeboard heights are derived from ICESat, ATM and LVIS elevation and waveform data. With nominal densities of snow, water, and sea ice, combined with snow depth data from AMSR-E/AMSR2 passive microwave observation over the southern ocean, sea-ice thickness is derived from the freeboard. Combined with AMSR-E/AMSR2 ice concentration, sea-ice area and volume are also calculated. During the 2003-2009 period, sea-ice freeboard and thickness distributions show clear seasonal variations that reflect the yearly cycle of the growth and decay of the Antarctic pack ice. We found no significant trend of thickness or area for the Antarctic sea ice during the ICESat period. IceBridge sea ice freeboard and thickness data from 2009 to 2011 over the Weddell Sea and Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas are compared with the ICESat results.

Antarctic↗

Lessons from the IEC Durability of Adhesion Accelerated Test Sequence

The IEC 62788-1-1 and IEC 63209-2 standards use aging sequences for durability of adhesion in photovoltaic (PV) modules, which may be evaluated using the single cantilever beam (SCB) test. Because the encapsulant forms critical interfaces with the front glass and solar cells, degradation at those interfaces under ultraviolet (UV) exposure, elevated temperature, and humidity can lead to interfacial delamination - compromising the long-term reliability. In this work, adhesion durability of UV-transmitting poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA) encapsulant to glass and to silicon solar cells is evaluated after sequenced UV and damp heat aging (85C/85%RH). Laminates were prepared using StarPhire solar front glass with thin glass or PERC cells, and two EVA formulations with different concentrations of siloxane coupling agent. Adhesion was quantified by measuring critical debond energy using the SCB method. Both formulations exhibit similar qualitative trends, while different adhesion is observed at the periphery despite the use of low-shrink manufacturing. The results show that while glass/EVA adhesion remains stable or increases after UV exposure and shows only moderate changes after damp heat, the EVA/cell interface exhibits an irreversible loss of adhesion following UV and then damp heat exposure. Although glass/EVA interfaces generally exhibit lower debond energies, the EVA/cell interface is significantly more vulnerable to UV-driven degradation, identifying it as the dominant reliability risk location through early- and intermediate-module life. These results demonstrate that accelerated aging sequences can expose large, interface-specific losses in adhesion durability and underscore the importance of interface engineering for long-term PV module reliability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools

Introduction: Forest landscapes offer resources and ecosystem services that are vital to the social, economic, and cultural well-being of human communities, but managing for these provisions can require socially and ecologically relevant trade-offs. We designed a spatial decision support model to reveal trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in a large eastern Cascade Mountain landscape in Washington State, USA. Methods: We used process-based forest landscape (LANDIS-II) and hydrology (DHSVM) models to compare outcomes associated with 100 years of simulated forest and wildfire dynamics for two management scenarios, Wildfire only and Wildfire + Treatments. We then examined the strength and spatial distribution of potential treatment effects and trends in a set of resources and ecosystem services over the simulation period. Results: We found that wildfire area burned increased over time, but some impacts could be mitigated by adaptation treatments. Treatment benefits were not limited to treated areas. Interestingly, we observed neighborhood benefits where fire spread and severity were reduced not only in treated patches but in adjacent patches and landscapes as well, creating potential synergies among some resource benefits and services. Ordinations provided further evidence for two main kinds of outcomes. Positive ecological effects of treatments were greatest in upper elevation moist and cold forests, while positive benefits to human communities were aligned with drier, low- and mid-elevation forests closer to the wildland urban interface. Discussion: Our results contribute to improved understanding of synergies and tradeoffs linked to adaptation and restoration efforts in fire-prone forests and can be used to inform management aimed at rebuilding resilient, climate-adapted landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories

Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved relational-database framework that incorporates uncertainty in both chronology and the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental data. The database uses peer-reviewed palaeolimnological studies to produce a consensus on qualitative lake-status histories, whose chronologies are revised and standardized through the recalibration of radiocarbon dates and the application of Bayesian age-depth modelling for stratigraphic archives. Quantitative information on absolute water-level elevation is preserved if available from geomorphological sources. We also propose a new probabilistic analytical framework that accounts for these uncertainties to reconstruct synoptic, integrated environmental signals. The process is based on a Monte Carlo algorithm that iteratively samples individual lake-status histories within the limits of their uncertainties to produce many possible scenarios. We then use Recursively-Subtracted Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to extract dominant patterns of lake-status variability from these scenarios. As a proof of concept, we apply this framework to 67 sites in eastern and southern Africa whose lake-status histories cover part of the late Pleistocene and/or Holocene. We show that, despite the sometimes large temporal and interpretation uncertainties, and the inclusion of highly discontinuous lake-status time series, identifying the major known millennial-scale climatic phases during the last 20,000 years is possible. Our framework was also able to identify an antiphased response between the lake basins in eastern and interior southern Africa to these changes. Here, we propose that our new database and methodology framework serves as a template for efficient lake-status data synthesis, encourages the incorporation of lake-status data in palaeoclimate syntheses, and expands the possibilities for the use of such data in the evaluation of climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Role of Declining Snow Cover in the Desiccation of the Great Salt Lake, Utah, using MODIS Data

The Great Salt Lake (GSL) in Utah has been shrinking since the middle of the 19th Century, leading to decreased area and volume, and increased salinity. We use satellite data products from the Terra and Aqua MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Landsat-7 and -8 satellites, along with meteorological and streamflow data, and modeled data products to study the relationship between changing snow-cover conditions and the decline of the GSL since 2000 in the context of the historical record of lake levels. The GSL basin includes much of the snow-dominated Wasatch and Uinta mountain ranges to the east of the lake. Snowmelt feeds the Bear, Jordan, and Weber rivers which are the three main rivers that flow into the lake. Snowmelt-timing maps, derived from a new MODIS standard snow-cover product, MOD10A1F, show that snow melted ~9.5 days earlier in the GSL basin during the study period, extending from 2000 – 2018. Air temperatures derived from 26 meteorological stations and surface temperatures measured by the Aqua MODIS land-surface temperature (LST) products, MYD21A1D and MYD21A1N, show trends of increasing temperature of ~0.94°C (a=0.05), and ~2.18°C, respectively, with most of the LST trends in the GSL basin being statistically significant (a=0.05). Increasing air temperatures in the basin have led to less precipitation falling as snow, lower snow depth (by ~34.5 mm (=0.01)) and snow-water equivalent (0.02 mm (a=0.01)), and earlier snowmelt. Also during the study period, Global Land surface Evaporation Amsterdam Model data show evaporation increasing by ~3.2 mm/yr, with trends in much of the basin being statistically significant (a=0.05). Trends calculated from the various products are generally in agreement indicating higher temperatures, greater evaporation, less snowfall and snow-on-the ground, and earlier snowmelt. Earlier snowmelt contributes to increasing evaporative loss from water flowing toward the lake. Furthermore, a lower mountain snowpack and less precipitation falling as snow (versus rain) is associated with lower stream discharge even if overall precipitation stays the same. The surface-water temperature of the GSL also increased over the study period by ~ 0.69°C, according to the MODIS LST data products, and the surface-water elevation of the lake dropped by ~1.7 m between 2000 and 2018 based on United States Geological Survey measurements, and the areal extent of the lake decreased by ~901 km2 as measured using Landsat imagery. Desiccation of the lake is associated with deleterious effects on wildlife, recreational activities, and some local industries. And, importantly, an expanding lake bed can also fuel dust storms that promote dangerous air quality along the Wasatch Front. This work elucidates the key role that satellite remote sensing can play in documenting earlier snowmelt and other changes in the GSL basin that influence the ongoing decline of the Great Salt Lake.

Dorothy K Hall↗

Evaluating Ultraviolet Radiation Exposures Determined from TOMS Satellite Data at Sites of Amphibian Declines in Central and South America

Many amphibian species have experienced substantial population declines, or have disappeared altogether, during the last several decades at a number of amphibian census sites in Central and South America. This study addresses the use of satellite-derived trends in solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B; 280-320 nm) radiation exposures at these sites over the last two decades, and is intended to demonstrate a role for satellite observations in determining whether UV-B radiation is a contributing factor in amphibian declines. UV-B radiation levels at the Earth's surface were derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite data, typically acquired daily since 1979. These data were used to calculate the daily erythemal (sunburning) UV-B, or UV-B(sub ery), exposures at the latitude, longitude, and elevation of each of 20 census sites. The annually averaged UV-B(sub ery) dose, as well as the maximum values, have been increasing in both Central and South America, with higher levels received at the Central American sites. The annually averaged UV-B(sub ery) exposures increased significantly from 1979-1998 at all 11 Central American sites examined (r(exp 2) = 0.60 - 0.79; P<=0.015), with smaller but significant increases at five of the nine South American sites (r(exp 2) = 0.24-0.42; P<=0.05). The contribution of the highest UV-B(sub ery) exposure levels (>= 6750 J/sq m*d) to the annual UV-B(sub ery) total has increased from approx. 5% to approx. 15% in Central America over the 19 year period, but actual daily exposures for each species are unknown. Synergy among UV-B radiation and other factors, especially those associated with alterations of water chemistry (e.g., acidification) in aqueous habitats is discussed. These findings justify further research concerning whether UV-B(sub ery) radiation plays a role in amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Middleton, Elizabeth M.↗

Interlaboratory Reproducibility of Contour Method Data Analysis and Residual Stress Calculation

While the contour method for residual stress assessment has developed rapidly, no published study documents its interlaboratory reproducibility. Objective: Here we report an initial reproducibility experiment focused on contour method data analysis and residual stress calculation. The experiment uses surface topography data from a physical process simulation of elastic-plastic beam bending. The simulation provides surface topography, for input to the contour method data analysis, as well as a known residual stress field with 130 MPa peak magnitude. Additionally, to increase realism, noise and specific artifacts are added to the topography data. A group of participants received the topography data (without the known residual stress), independently analyzed the data, and submitted results as a two-dimensional residual stress field. Analysis of submissions provides a group average residual stress field and the spatial distribution of reproducibility standard deviation. The group average residual stress agrees with the known stress in magnitude and spatial trend. The reproducibility standard deviation ranges from 2 to 54 MPa over the measurement plane, with an average of 5.4 MPa. Reproducibility standard deviation is smaller in the cross-section interior (≤ 5 MPa), modest near local extrema in the stress field (5 to 10 MPa), and larger near the cross-section boundaries (10 to 30 MPa). Overall, the largest values of reproducibility standard deviation (up to 54 MPa) occur in limited areas where artifacts had been added to the topography data; while some participants identified and removed these artifacts, some did not, leading to systematic differences that elevated the standard deviation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Investigation of Widespread Ozone Damage to the Soybean Crop in the Upper Midwest Determined From Ground-Based and Satellite Measurements

Elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) are frequently measured over farmland regions in many parts of the world. While numerous experimental studies show that O3 can significantly decrease crop productivity, independent verifications of yield losses at current ambient O3 concentrations in rural locations are sparse. In this study, soybean crop yield data during a 5-year period over the Midwest of the United States were combined with ground and satellite O3 measurements to provide evidence that yield losses on the order of 10% could be estimated through the use of a multiple linear regression model. Yield loss trends based on both conventional ground-based instrumentation and satellite-derived tropospheric O3 measurements were statistically significant and were consistent with results obtained from open-top chamber experiments and an open-air experimental facility (SoyFACE, Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment) in central Illinois. Our analysis suggests that such losses are a relatively new phenomenon due to the increase in background tropospheric O3 levels over recent decades. Extrapolation of these findings supports previous studies that estimate the global economic loss to the farming community of more than $10 billion annually.

Fishman, Jack↗

Will cities keep getting hotter? The interplay of urban expansion and greening reshapes future urban heat trajectories

Urban heat islands (UHIs) pose growing risks to public health, infrastructure, and resilience. While often assumed to intensify with urban growth, dynamic changes in urban expansion and vegetation greenness complicate UHI trajectories, which remain poorly understood. This study investigated the interplay of urban expansion and greenness change on UHI spatial profile across 36 Chinese megacities during 2003–2018 using multiple satellite products. We introduce a framework that classifies urban areas into four dynamic development pathways based on impervious surface area (ISA) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) trends: urbanized-greening, urbanized-browning, urbanizing-greening (UingG), and urbanizing-browning (UingB). While most urbanized centers exhibited greening driven by targeted initiatives and urbanizing suburbs showed browning due to vegetation loss, about 30% urban areas showed the reverse pattern, revealing overlooked complexity in urban development. Urban expansion and browning strengthened UHI in suburban areas, whereas greening initiatives mitigated UHI in urban center and mitigated UHI enhancement in suburban areas. Slowed warming in urban centers together with accelerated warming in suburban areas flattened the temperature gradient between urban centers and suburbs. This dynamic expanded the spatial extent of elevated temperatures and reshaped the classic urban-to-rural UHI profile into a flatter form. In UingB areas, UHI intensification was jointly driven by increase in ISA, vegetation loss, and their interaction, while in UingG areas, EVI increases and a negative interaction together offset over half of the warming driven by urban expansion. These findings reveal that UHI evolution is not unidirectional but depends on localized urbanization and greening dynamics, offering pathways for strategic heat mitigation.

greening initiative↗