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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

..beta..-Ketoadipic Acid Production in P. putida for Performance-Advantaged Nylons

Biomass derived chemicals can possess extended functionality, often in the form of heteroatoms like oxygen and nitrogen, that can enable performance advantaged properties in emergent materials. One illustrative example of this concept is ..beta..-ketoadipic acid (..beta..KA), a C6 dicarboxylic acid with a ketone in its backbone. ..beta..KA can be obtained via biological cultivation from aromatic compounds, sugars, and even waste plastics. When ..beta..KA is implemented into polymers, namely nylons, in place of adipic acid the overall material properties are increased. Specifically, the glass transition temperature (which is the measurement at which temperature a plastic softens) is increased by 69 degrees C and the water permeability is reduced by 20%. Molecular dynamic (MD) simulations reveal that the ..beta..-ketone in ..beta..KA leads to restricted movement across multiple backbone carbons when compared to adipic acid. Furthermore, MD simulations reveal that the ..beta..-ketone, when compared to no-ketone or an a-ketone, can lead to an increase in hydrogen bonding between neighboring chains. Both phenomena may help explain the molecular origin of the increases in polymer performance. Aside from performance advantages in thermomechanical performance, the production of ..beta..KA also is advantaged in its manufacturing. Although estimates for the minimum selling price (MSP) of ..beta..KA exceed adipic acid the manufacture of ..beta..KA would reduce supply chain energy and GHG emissions by >50% and >30% respectively. Further TEA analysis reveals that the MSP of ..beta..KA is primarily driven by the feedstock cost while the capital expenditures are driven largely by fermentation costs. Overall, the work presented within will be illustrative of how biomass derived molecules, namely ..beta..KA, can manifest performance advantages across multiple benchmarks and may enable a path to market for biomass-derived materials.

beta-ketoadipic acid↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nanoscale structure of a hybrid aqueous–nonaqueous electrolyte

A new class of electrolytes have been reported, hybridizing aqueous with non-aqueous solvents, which combines non-flammability and non-toxicity characteristics of aqueous electrolytes with the superior electrochemical stability of non-aqueous systems. Here, we report measurements of the structure of an electrolyte composed of an equal-mass mixture of 21 m LiTFSI-water and 9 m LiTFSI-dimethyl carbonate using high-energy x-ray diffraction and polarized neutron diffraction with isotope substitution. Neutron structure factors from partially and fully deuterated samples exhibit peaks at low scattering vector Q that we ascribe to long-range correlations involving both solvent molecules and TFSI − anions. Here we compare both sets of measurements with results of molecular dynamics simulations based on a polarizable force field. The structures derived from simulations are generally in agreement with those measured, except that neutron structure factors predicted for two partially deuterated samples show very intense scattering increasing up to the low- Q limit of simulation, indicating a partial segregation between the two solvents not observed in experimental measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Ethanol-to-Jet cost Effectiveness via direct conversion to n -Butene-Rich olefins and Co-Product Valorization

Ethanol is a promising feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel production; however, conventional routes face significant energy and cost challenges, particularly due to the ethanol dehydration step to ethylene. Here, this study leverages breakthrough experimental data to perform comprehensive techno-economic and life-cycle assessments of an innovative ethanol-to-jet process. The process employs a single-step catalytic conversion, enabled by multifunctional Cu-ZrO 2 /SBA-16 catalyst, to directly upgrade ethanol into a mixed olefin stream rich in n-butene. The single-step conversion eliminates the costly ethanol dehydration step in the conventional process. High selectivity toward n-butene offers key advantages: it simplifies downstream oligomerization into jet-range hydrocarbons and enables the co-production of renewable n-butene alongside sustainable aviation fuel. The analysis estimates a minimum fuel selling price as low as $\$$2.50 per gallon, whether using corn ethanol or cellulosic ethanol from corn stover. Life cycle CO 2 equivalent emissions are projected to be as low as 10.6 g CO 2 eq/MJ sustainable aviation fuel, representing over 70% reduction compared to conventional petroleum-based jet fuel. This one-step ethanol upgrading approach not only facilitates SAF and n-butene co-production but also provides operational flexibility. The ability to tailor product outputs allows the ethanol-to-jet process to adapt to varying feedstocks, incentive programs, and market dynamics, ultimately enhancing the economic viability of sustainable aviation fuel production.

Xu, Yiling [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Buyers Collusion in Incentivized Forwarding Networks: A Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Study

We present the issue of monetarily incentivized forwarding in a multi-hop mesh network architecture from an economic perspective. It is anticipated that credit-incentivized forwarding and relaying will be a simple method of exchanging transmission power and spectrum for connectivity. However, gateways and forwarding nodes, like any other free market, may create an oligopolistic market for the users they serve. In this study, a coalition scheme between buyers aims to address price control by gateways or nodes closer to gateways. In a Stackelberg competition game, buyer agents (users) and sellers (gateways) make decisions using reinforcement learning (RL), with decentralized Deep Q-Networks to buy and sell forwarding resources. We allow communication links between the buyers with a limited messaging space, without defining a collusion mechanism. The idea is to demonstrate that through messaging, and RL tacit collusion can emerge between agents in a decentralized setup. The multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) system is presented and analyzed from a machine-learning perspective. Moreover, MARL dynamics are discussed via mean field analysis to better understand divergence causes and make implementation recommendations for such systems. Finally, the simulation results show the results of coordination among the users.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1981

Structural dynamic analysis of the Space Shuttle Main Engine

This structural dynamic analysis supports development of the SSME by evaluating components subjected to critical dynamic loads, identifying significant parameters, and evaluating solution methods. Engine operating parameters at both rated and full power levels are considered. Detailed structural dynamic analyses of operationally critical and life limited components support the assessment of engine design modifications and environmental changes. Engine system test results are utilized to verify analytic model simulations. The SSME main chamber injector assembly is an assembly of 600 injector elements which are called LOX posts. The overall LOX post analysis procedure is shown.

Scott, L. P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Simulated Evaluation of Powder Flowability Through a Partially Obstructed Consumable in Blown Powder Directed Energy Deposition Systems

Abstract In the interest of continued industrialization of metal additive manufacturing in modern production environments, cost is often referenced as a primary deterrent to new adopters. Conventional economic models for additive systems, processes, and supply chains often focus on specific process applications with little generalizability, or they neglect significant costs associated with production such as machine maintenance and consumable part replacement. Compounding the latter issue are substantial knowledge gaps in consumable part wear characterization for additive and other convergent manufacturing systems. In coaxial blown powder directed energy deposition systems, gas atomized metal powder is wasted during material deposition at a rate that is partly dependent on present wear phenomena in a consumable nozzle housed in the cladding head assembly. The price and lead time required to replace the nozzle incentivizes its reuse even when visibly worn. Often this initiates a process quality decline in the form of underbuilt geometry and internal defects due to losses in powder catchment efficiency. While depositing H13 steel using a hybrid manufacturing machine tool equipped with such a deposition system, a unique partial clog with a bridge-like structure formed at the consumable nozzle exit when supporting argon gas flows failed mid-process. To further understand coaxial multi-phase powder flow in the event of support gas failure, a computational fluid dynamics simulation is tailored to relevant process parameters, H13 powder material profile, and machine operator observations collected after the incident. The resulting differences in powder flow compared to control gas flow parameters is presented and discussed. The powder flowability and performance of the clogged nozzle is then assessed by using an optical profilometer to extract the profile of the clog and recreate the clog geometry within the simulation environment. In past work this simulation has been experimentally validated for a 316L steel powder material profile and used specifically for analyzing powder stream geometry and catchment efficiency. After the initial powder flow characterization, the clog is removed, and the nozzle is reprofiled. After removing the obstructing clog, the newly unobstructed nozzle geometry, the original off the shelf nozzle geometry, and additional nozzle profiles exploring different consumable refurbishment strategies are reevaluated in the simulation. Powder catchment efficiency for all variant nozzle geometries and relevant flow variables are compared and discussed, along with potential mitigation strategies for optimizing powder flowability with worn consumables. This work expands on the known morphology of blown powder obstructions and wear defects present in consumable coaxial nozzles while discussing pragmatic simulation driven responses to unanticipated subsystem failure in hybrid manufacturing machining platforms.

DeWitte, Lisa↗
DOE OSTI2022

A scalable solid-state nanoporous network with atomic-level interaction design for carbon dioxide capture

Carbon capture and sequestration reduces carbon dioxide emissions and is critical in accomplishing carbon neutrality targets. Here, we demonstrate new sustainable, solid-state, polyamine-appended, cyanuric acid–stabilized melamine nanoporous networks (MNNs) via dynamic combinatorial chemistry (DCC) at the kilogram scale toward effective and high-capacity carbon dioxide capture. Polyamine-appended MNNs reaction mechanisms with carbon dioxide were elucidated with double-level DCC where two-dimensional heteronuclear chemical shift correlation nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy was performed to demonstrate the interatomic interactions. We distinguished ammonium carbamate pairs and a mix of ammonium carbamate and carbamic acid during carbon dioxide chemisorption. The coordination of polyamine and cyanuric acid modification endows MNNs with high adsorption capacity (1.82 millimoles per gram at 1 bar), fast adsorption time (less than 1 minute), low price, and extraordinary stability to cycling by flue gas. This work creates a general industrialization method toward carbon dioxide capture via DCC atomic-level design strategies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prospects for quarkonium studies at the high-luminosity LHC

In this work, prospects for quarkonium-production studies accessible during the upcoming high-luminosity phases of the CERN Large Hadron Collider operation after 2021 are reviewed. Current experimental and theoretical open issues in the field are assessed together with the potential for future studies in quarkonium-related physics. This will be possible through the exploitation of the huge data samples to be collected in proton-proton, proton-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions, both in the collider and fixed-target modes. Such investigations include, among others, those of: (i) J/ψ and Υ produced in association with other hard particles; (ii) χ c,b and η c,b down to small transverse momenta; (iii) the constraints brought in by quarkonia on gluon PDFs, nuclear PDFs, TMDs, GPDs and GTMDs, as well as on the low-x parton dynamics; (iv) the gluon Sivers effect in polarised-nucleon collisions; (v) the properties of the quark-gluon plasma produced in ultra-relativistic heavy-ion collisions and of collective partonic effects in general; and (vi) double and triple parton scatterings.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Simulation in a dynamic prototyping environment: Petri nets or rules?

An evaluation of a prototyped user interface is best supported by a simulation of the system. A simulation allows for dynamic evaluation of the interface rather than just a static evaluation of the screen's appearance. This allows potential users to evaluate both the look (in terms of the screen layout, color, objects, etc.) and feel (in terms of operations and actions which need to be performed) of a system's interface. Because of the need to provide dynamic evaluation of an interface, there must be support for producing active simulations. The high-fidelity training simulators are delivered too late to be effectively used in prototyping the displays. Therefore, it is important to build a low fidelity simulator, so that the iterative cycle of refining the human computer interface based upon a user's interactions can proceed early in software development.

Moore, Loretta A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Assessing the Relocation of Artemis Foundational Lunar Surface Concepts

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has defined a functionally based Moon to Mars (M2M) architecture consisting of four key human exploration segments: human lunar return (HLR), foundational exploration (FE), sustained lunar evolution (SLE), and humans to Mars (H2M). These segments are portions of the architecture which represent a stepwise increase in complexity and achievement of M2M objectives [1]. As systems are deployed during the FE segment, it may be desired or even necessary to relocate these elements on the lunar surface as the architecture transitions into the SLE segment. While some Artemis elements under development, such as rovers, are being designed for mobility during both crewed and uncrewed/dormant periods, other architectural concepts do not currently carry a mobility capability. In preparation for the Agency’s 2023 Architecture Concept Review (ACR), a team was assembled to establish a methodology for assessing the relocation feasibility of normally stationary elements. Such a capability could be applied locally or regionally, and might allow for re-purposing previously occupied terrain, expansion of exploration range, aggregation of habitation elements, or retiring systems at the end of their useful service life. The assembled NASA team investigated the relocation trade space through defining a representative concept of operations (ConOps) and assessing possible system impacts. The team focused predominately on the relocation of medium and large surface habitat architectural concepts through surface-based traverses utilizing separable mobility platforms (SMP). A representative mobility platform model was placed through simulation to analyze the possible energy requirements and dynamic illumination impacts. Preliminary assessment indicated that element relocation might be achievable, however significant system and architectural-level risks still need to be quantified. Future analysis will assist in determining what degree of element relocation provides the greatest benefit to achieving a sustained lunar presence. [1] NASA. (2022). Moon to Mars Objectives. Retrieved from: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/m2m-objectives-exec-summary.pdf

Artemis↗
DOE OSTI2021

A reactive flow model for the 3,3'-diamino-4,4'-azoxyfurazan based plastic bonded explosive (PBX 9701)

Here, this paper describes the calibration of the Arrhenius Wescott–Stewart–Davis (AWSD) reactive flow model for the recently developed high explosive PBX 9701, which consists of 97% 3,3'-diamino-4,4'-azoxyfurazan (DAAF) and 3% FK-800 binder by weight. DAAF-based explosive formulations have several desirable qualities as they are relatively insensitive to non-shock insults but have higher performance than triaminotrinitrobenzene based formulations. Equations of state for the explosive reactants and products are calibrated using a combination of existing and new experimental data and theoretical calculations. The AWSD rate law calibration utilizes both one-dimensional shock-to-detonation and multidimensional rate stick experiments to capture the shock initiation and propagating detonation regimes. Validation of the calibrated model is demonstrated through comparison with recent gas-gun experiments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS1994

Simulation in a dynamic prototyping environment: Petri nets or rules?

An evaluation of a prototyped user interface is best supported by a simulation of the system. A simulation allows for dynamic evaluation of the interface rather than just a static evaluation of the screen's appearance. This allows potential users to evaluate both the look (in terms of the screen layout, color, objects, etc.) and feel (in terms of operations and actions which need to be performed) of a system's interface. Because of the need to provide dynamic evaluation of an interface, there must be support for producing active simulations. The high-fidelity training simulators are normally delivered too late to be effectively used in prototyping the displays. Therefore, it is important to build a low fidelity simulator, so that the iterative cycle of refining the human computer interface based upon a user's interactions can proceed early in software development.

Moore, Loretta A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Flame Synthesis of Single- and Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotubes and Nanofibers

Metal-catalyzed carbon nanotubes are highly sought for a diverse range of applications that include nanoelectronics, battery electrode material, catalysis, hydrogen storage media and reinforcing agents in polymer composites. These latter applications will require vast quantities of nanotubes at competitive prices to be economically feasible. Moreover, reinforcing applications may not require ultrahigh purity nanotubes. Indeed, functionalization of nanotubes to facilitate interfacial bonding within composites will naturally introduce defects into the tube walls, lessening their tensile strength. Current methods of aerosol synthesis of carbon nanotubes include laser ablation of composite targets of carbon and catalyst metal within high temperature furnaces and decomposition of a organometallics in hydrocarbons mixtures within a tube furnace. Common to each approach is the generation of particles in the presence of the reactive hydrocarbon species at elevated temperatures. In the laser-ablation approach, the situation is even more dynamic in that particles and nanotubes are borne during the transient cooling phase of the laser-induced plasma for which the temperature far exceeds that of the surrounding hot gases within the furnace process tube. A shared limitation is that more efficient methods of nanoparticle synthesis are not readily incorporated into these approaches. In contrast, combustion can quite naturally create nanomaterials such as carbon black. Flame synthesis is well known for its commercial scalability and energy efficiency. However, flames do present a complex chemical environment with steep gradients in temperature and species concentrations. Moreover, reaction times are limited within buoyant driven flows to tens of milliseconds. Therein microgravity can greatly lessen temperature and spatial gradients while allowing independent control of flame residence times. In preparation for defining the microgravity experiments, the work presented here focuses on the effect of catalyst particle size and reactant gas in 1g.

VanderWal, R. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Persistent, extensive channelized drainage modeled beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica

Abstract. Subglacial hydrology is a leading control on basal friction and the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets. At low discharge, subglacial water flows through high-pressure, sheet-like systems that lead to low effective pressures. However, at high discharge, subglacial water melts the overlying ice into localized channels that efficiently remove water from the bed, thereby increasing effective pressure and basal friction. Recent observations suggest channelized subglacial flow exists beneath Thwaites Glacier, yet it remains unclear if stable channelization is feasible in West Antarctica, where surface melting is nonexistent and water at the bed is limited. Here, we use the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model to run a suite of over 130 subglacial hydrology simulations of Thwaites Glacier across a wide range of physical parameter choices to assess the likelihood of channelization. We then narrow our range of viable simulations by comparing modeled water thicknesses to previously observed radar specularity content, which indicates flat, spatially extensive water bodies at the bed. In all of our data-compatible simulations, stable channels reliably form within 100–200 km of the grounding line and reach individual discharge rates of 35–110 m3 s−1 at the ice–ocean boundary. While only one to two channels typically form across the 200 km width of the glacier in our simulations, their high efficiency drains water across the entire lateral extent of the glacier. We posit the large catchment size of Thwaites Glacier, its funnel-like geometry, and high basal melt rates together accumulate enough water to form stable channels. No simulations resembled observed specularity content when channelization was disabled. Our results suggest channelized subglacial hydrology has two consequences for Thwaites Glacier dynamics: (i) amplifying submarine melting of the terminus and ice shelf while (ii) simultaneously raising effective pressure within 100 km of the grounding line and increasing basal friction. The distribution of effective pressure implied from our modeling differs from parameterizations typically used in large-scale ice sheet models, suggesting the development of more process-based parameterizations may be necessary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pipeline Hydrogen Decarbonization and Repurposing Analyzers (P-HyDRAs)

The Pipeline Hydrogen Decarbonization and Repurposing Analyzers (P-HyDRAs) are a set of prototype computational tools for simulating and optimizing midstream natural gas pipeline system operations subject to location and time-dependent hydrogen blending. The models can accurately resolve dynamic gas flows through large-scale pipeline networks using non-ideal gas equations of state. The codes can be used as decision support for planning and design decisions involving intra-day energy flow schedules as well as spatiotemporal economic values of natural gas, hydrogen, and net energy delivered to consumers while ensuring that pipeline hydraulic limitations, gas compressor station constraints, operational factors, and pre-existing shipping contracts are satisfied. The inputs to the codes are a model of the pipeline system as well as time-series data that specify boundary conditions on the network. For optimization, the code module requires price and quantity offers for natural gas and hydrogen and price and quantity bids for energy, which are used as time-dependent constraints in an optimal control problem. The outputs are time-series data that provide a predictive simulation of gas flows, mass fractions, and pressures, or with additional degrees of freedom give an approximately optimal solution for gas injections/withdrawals, compressor settings, and sensitivities to the objective function that provide locational values of energy.

Zlotnik, Anatoly↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

Residential buildings consume 4.4 quads of electricity annually, approximately 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. This represents a vast resource that can be used for demand management and other ancillary services. This project aims to develop a robust, scalable hierarchical transactional control mechanism incorporating elements of model-free control (MFC) and game theory to harness buildings to provide ancillary services to the grid. This approach is being taken to address the challenges of incorporating traditional transactional control schemes into existing buildings. The challenges include small individual building sizes requiring aggregation of many buildings, unpredictable energy usage that makes model identification difficult, and satisfying the sensitive occupant comfort constraints. In the proposed approach, by separating the control mechanism into two layers above and below the load aggregator, MFC can be used below the aggregator to modulate flexible building loads in response to pricing signals with guaranteed performance. This allows the burden of identifying an accurate model of the system to be shifted to the above-aggregator layer, where fluctuations in individual building usage have less impact on predicted building system behavior. Game theory concepts can then be used to determine pricing curves and control signals among regional aggregators. Managing this control in a game-theoretic approach will allow us to build in financial incentives that increase customer engagement. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable on small, embedded devices. In a broader sense, developing a strategy capable of effectively incorporating residential and small commercial buildings will allow greater throughput of existing and emerging grid services in addition to future transactive energy grid management methods. Using MFC within a hierarchical control architecture will allow the shifting of existing forecasting challenges to an aggregate level, where dynamics are slower and more predictable. This will enable a smooth interface between the grid services requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. MFC, which supports distributed control architecture, permits a scalable solution that can be deployed to neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. This project focuses on three objectives: (1) developing the mathematical framework, algorithm toolkit, and software toolset of the two-layer transactive control testbed; (2) developing a scalable solution for application over many residential and small-size commercial buildings with sparse distributed communication; and (3) field testing and implementation on hardware of the control strategies developed in the previous two objectives. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2025 targets timeframe. An open-source control framework for exploiting variability and dispatchability of building loads will be delivered as the outcome of the project. This capability enables greater participation of loads in electricity markets and ancillary services that are both useful for the utility and financially beneficial for building owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance Advantaged ..beta..-Ketone Containing Polymers - Benefits in Manufacturing, Performance, and End-of-Life

Biomass derived chemicals can possess extended functionality, often in the form of heteroatoms like oxygen and nitrogen, that can enable performance advantaged properties in emergent materials. These performance advantages can manifest in multiple ways such as reduced manufacturing intensity, better performance, or enhanced end-of-life options. One illustrative example of this concept is ..beta..-ketoadipic acid (..beta..KA), a C6 dicarboxylic acid with a ketone in its backbone. ..beta..KA can be obtained via biological cultivation from aromatic compounds, sugars, and even waste plastics. When ..beta..KA is implemented into polymers, namely nylons, in place of adipic acid the overall material properties are increased. Specifically, the glass transition temperature (which is the measurement at which temperature a plastic softens) is increased by 69 degrees C and the water permeability is reduced by 20%. Molecular dynamic (MD) simulations reveal that the ..beta..-ketone in ..beta..KA leads to restricted movement across multiple backbone carbons when compared to adipic acid. Furthermore, MD simulations reveal that the ..beta..-ketone, when compared to no-ketone or an a-ketone, can lead to an increase in hydrogen bonding between neighboring chains. Both phenomena may help explain the molecular origin of the increases in polymer performance. When implemented into polyesters, namely PET, ..beta..KA can maintain the requisite performance while enabling enhanced degradation. Aside from performance advantages in thermomechanical performance, the production of ..beta..KA also is advantaged in its manufacturing. Although estimates for the minimum selling price (MSP) of ..beta..KA exceed adipic acid the manufacture of ..beta..KAwould reduce supply chain energy and GHG emissions by >50% and >30% respectively. Further TEA analysis reveals that the MSP of ..beta..KA is primarily driven by the feedstock cost while the capital expenditures are driven largely by fermentation costs. Overall, the work presented within will be illustrative of how biomass derived molecules, namely ..beta..KA, can manifest performance advantages across multiple benchmarks and may enable a path to market for biomass-derived materials.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

SeaRISE↗