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At least 253 records · Page 14

Modeling Interplanetary Expansion and Deformation of CMEs With ANTEATR-PARADE: Relative Contribution of Different Forces

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are key drivers of space weather activity but most predictions have been limited to the expected arrival time of a CME, rather than the internal properties that affect the severity of an impact. Many properties, such as the magnetic field density and mass density, follow conservation laws and vary systematically with changes in the size of a CME. We present ANTEATR-PARADE, the newest version of the ANTEATR arrival time model, which now includes physics-driven changes in the size and shape of both the CME's central axis and its cross section. Internal magnetic and thermal and external drag forces affect the acceleration of the CME in different directions, inducing asymmetries between the radial and perpendicular directions. These improvements should lead to more realistic CME velocities, both bulk and expansion, sizes and shapes, and internal properties. We present the model details, an initial illustration of the general behavior, and a study of the relative importance of the different forces. The model shows a pancaking of both the cross section and central axis of the CME so that their radial extent becomes smaller than their extent in the perpendicular direction. We find that the initial velocities, drag, any form of cross section expansion, and the precise form of thermal expansion have strong effects. The results are less sensitive to axial forces and the specific form of the cross section expansion.

C. Kay↗

Update on Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Models for Ground and Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper reports on recent revisions and improvements to our ground telescope cost model and refinements of our understanding of space telescope cost models. One interesting observation is that while space telescopes are 50X to 100X more expensive than ground telescopes, their respective scaling relationships are similar. Another interesting speculation is that the role of technology development may be different between ground and space telescopes. For ground telescopes, the data indicates that technology development tends to reduce cost by approximately 50% every 20 years. But for space telescopes, there appears to be no such cost reduction because we do not tend to re-fly similar systems. Thus, instead of reducing cost, 20 years of technology development may be required to enable a doubling of space telescope capability. Other findings include: mass should not be used to estimate cost; spacecraft and science instrument costs account for approximately 50% of total mission cost; and, integration and testing accounts for only about 10% of total mission cost.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

Intra-Engine Trace Species Chemistry

Prompted by the needs of downstream plume-wake models, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Aerodyne Research Incorporated (ART) initiated a collaborative effort, with funding from the NASA AEAP, to develop tools that would assist in understanding the fundamental drivers of chemical change within the intra-engine exhaust flow path. Efforts have been focused on the development of a modeling methodology that can adequately investigate the complex intra-engine environment. Over the history of this project, our research has increasingly pointed to the intra-engine environment as a possible site for important trace chemical activity. Modeling studies we initiated for the turbine and exhaust nozzle have contributed several important capabilities to the atmospheric effects of aviation assessment. These include a more complete understanding of aerosol precursor production, improved initial conditions for plume-wake modeling studies, and a more comprehensive analysis of ground-based test cell and in-flight exhaust measurement data. In addition, establishing a physical understanding of important flow and chemical processes through computational investigations may eventually assist in the design of engines to reduce undesirable species.

Waitz, Ian A.↗

Effects of Optimisation Parameters on Data-Driven Magnetofrictional Modelling of Active Regions

Context . The solar magnetic field plays an essential role in the formation, evolution, and dynamics of large-scale eruptive structures in the corona. The estimation of the coronal magnetic field, the ultimate driver of space weather, particularly in the ‘low’ and ‘middle’ corona, is presently limited due to practical difficulties. Data-driven time-dependent magnetofrictional modelling (TMFM) of active region magnetic fields has been proven to be a useful tool to study the corona. The input to the model is the photospheric electric field that is inverted from a time series of the photospheric magnetic field. Constraining the complete electric field, that is, including the non-inductive component, is critical for capturing the eruption dynamics. We present a detailed study of the effects of optimisation of the non-inductive electric field on the TMFM of AR 12473. Aims . We aim to study the effects of varying the non-inductive electric field on the data-driven coronal simulations, for two alternative parametrisations. By varying parameters controlling the strength of the non-inductive electric field, we wish to explore the changes in flux rope formation and their early evolution and other parameters, for instance, axial flux and magnetic field magnitude. Methods . We used the high temporal and spatial resolution cadence vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The non-inductive electric field component in the photosphere is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field, thereby allowing unstable configurations to be formed. We estimated this component using an approach based on optimising the injection of magnetic energy. Results . Our data show that flux ropes are formed in all of the simulations except for those with the lower values of these optimised parameters. However, the flux rope formation, evolution and eruption time varies depending on the values of the optimisation parameters. The flux rope is formed and has overall similar evolution and properties with a large range of non-inductive electric fields needed to determine the non-inductive electric field component that is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field. Conclusions . This study shows that irrespective of non-inductive electric field values, flux ropes are formed and erupted, which indicates that data-driven TMFM can be used to estimate flux rope properties early in their evolution without needing to employ a lengthy optimisation process.

A. Kumari↗

Principles from Two Small SRM-Based Launcher Design/Developments

Two solid rocket motor based launch vehicles are in design and development at MSFC, a 4-stage Earth-to-Orbit vehicle cube-satellite launcher, and the 2-stage Mars Ascent Vehicle for the Mars sample return mission. Trade studies that refined these designs have benefited from developments in understanding sensitivities and approximate modeling. The development and practice of that has demonstrated 3 principles: PRINCIPLE I: Identify mission-specific key design drivers — particularly interactions (and focus knowledge-development on those). PRINCIPLE II: Agility — don’t lock down your derived requirements early — keep trading, and characterizing sensitivities. PRINCIPLE III: Use multi-fidelity tools to improve “understanding value generated per modeling effort cost.” The designer should expect different design solution techniques to derive from different mission needs. This paper shows how two launch vehicle designs developed and adapted to those needs.

Kibbey, Timothy P.↗

Investigation of Condensing Ice Heat Exchangers for MTSA Technology Development

Metabolic heat regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption (MTSA) technology is being developed for thermal, carbon dioxide (CO2) and humidity control for a Portable Life Support Subsystem (PLSS). Metabolically-produced CO2 present in the ventilation gas of a PLSS is collected using a CO2selective adsorbent via temperature swing adsorption. The temperature swing is initiated through cooling to well below metabolic temperatures. Cooling is achieved with a sublimation heat exchanger using water or liquid carbon dioxide (LCO2) expanded below sublimation temperature when exposed to low pressure or vacuum. Subsequent super heated vapor, as well as additional coolant, is used to further cool the astronaut. The temperature swing on the adsorbent is then completed by warming the adsorbent with a separate condensing ice heat exchanger (CIHX) using metabolic heat from moist ventilation gas. The condensed humidity in the ventilation gas is recycled at the habitat. The water condensation from the ventilation gas is a significant heat transfer mechanism for the warming of the adsorbent bed because it represents as much as half of the energy potential in the moist ventilation gas. Designing a heat exchanger to efficiently transfer this energy to the adsorbent bed and allow the collection of the water is a challenge since the CIHX will operate in a temperature range from 210K to 280K. The ventilation gas moisture will first freeze and then thaw, sometimes existing in three phases simultaneously. A NASA Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Phase 1 contract was performed to investigate condensing and icing as applied to MTSA to enable higher fidelity modeling and assess the impact of geometry variables on CIHX performance for future CIHX design optimization. Specifically, a design tool was created using analytical relations to explore the complex, interdependent design space of a condensing ice heat exchanger. Numerous variables were identified as having nontrivial contributions to performance such as hydraulic diameter, heat exchanger effectiveness, ventilation gas mass flow rate and surface roughness. Using this tool, four test articles were designed and manufactured to map to a full MTSA subassembly (the adsorbent bed, the sublimation heat exchanger for cooling and the condensing ice heat exchanger for warming). The design mapping considered impacts due to CIHX geometry as well as subassembly impacts such as thermal mass and thermal resistance through the adsorbent bed. The test articles were tested at simulated PLSS ventilation loop temperature, moisture content and subambient pressure. Ice accumulation and melting were observed. Data and test observations were analyzed to identify drivers of the condensing ice heat exchanger performance. This paper will discuss the analytical models, the test article designs, and testing procedures. Testing issues will be discussed to better describe data and share lessons learned. Data analysis and subsequent conclusions will be presented.

Padilla, Sebastian↗

Acoustic waves in shock tunnels and expansion tubes

It is shown that disturbances in shock and expansion tubes can be modelled as lateral acoustic waves. The ratio of sound speed across the driver-test gas interface is shown to govern the quantity of noise in the test gas. Frequency 'focusing' which is fundamental to centered unsteady expansions is discussed and displayed in centerline pitot pressure measurements.

Paull, A.↗

Flow quality studies of the NASA Lewis Research Center Icing Research Tunnel diffuser

The purpose was to document the airflow characteristics in the diffuser of the NASA Lewis Research Center Icing Research Tunnel and to determine the effects of vortex generators on the flow quality in the diffuser. The results were used to determine how to improve the flow in this portion of the tunnel so that it can be more effectively used as an icing test section and such that overall tunnel efficiency can be improved. The demand for tunnel test time and the desire to test models that are too large for the test section were two of the drivers behind this diffuser study. For all vortex generator configurations tested, the flow quality was improved.

Arrington, E. Allen↗

Preliminary Multivariable Cost Model for Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. Previously, the authors published two single variable cost models based on 19 flight missions. The current paper presents the development of a multi-variable space telescopes cost model. The validity of previously published models are tested. Cost estimating relationships which are and are not significant cost drivers are identified. And, interrelationships between variables are explored

Stahl, H. Philip↗

Application of System Operational Effectiveness Methodology to Space Launch Vehicle Development and Operations

The Department of Defense (DoD) defined System Operational Effectiveness (SOE) model provides an exceptional framework for an affordable approach to the development and operation of space launch vehicles and their supporting infrastructure. The SOE model provides a focal point from which to direct and measure technical effectiveness and process efficiencies of space launch vehicles. The application of the SOE model to a space launch vehicle's development and operation effort leads to very specific approaches and measures that require consideration during the design phase. This paper provides a mapping of the SOE model to the development of space launch vehicles for human exploration by addressing the SOE model key points of measurement including System Performance, System Availability, Technical Effectiveness, Process Efficiency, System Effectiveness, Life Cycle Cost, and Affordable Operational Effectiveness. In addition, the application of the SOE model to the launch vehicle development process is defined providing the unique aspects of space launch vehicle production and operations in lieu of the traditional broader SOE context that examines large quantities of fielded systems. The tailoring and application of the SOE model to space launch vehicles provides some key insights into the operational design drivers, capability phasing, and operational support systems.

Watson, Michael D.↗

Sensible Heat Has Significantly Affected the Global Hydrological Cycle Over the Historical Period

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.

Myhre, G.↗

California & Oregon Ecological Forecasting: Detecting and Forecasting Fog Occurrence, Frequency, and Change to Support Coast Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) Habitat Assessments

Fog and low clouds play an important role in providing moisture to coastal ecosystems. Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests are currently distributed along a narrow strip of coastline in California and Oregon and rely on the presence of marine fog for moisture availability during the dry season (June-October). Recent time series analyses presented an uncertain future of fog frequency; however, a decline in fog presence may have adverse effects on the coast redwood habitat. To support Save the Redwoods League, a non-profit organization dedicated to coast redwood forest management, the team analyzed hourly fog data from the Geospatial Operational Environmental Satellite 17 (GOES-17) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and daily cloud cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite. To explore present day fog longevity, GOES-17 was utilized to map the number of fog hours per day for the 2019 and 2020 dry seasons. The MODIS cloud flag was used to map the presence or absence of daily fog, which was summarized to create a monthly fog frequency dataset and identify trends in fog presence between 2000-2020. Both datasets were used as inputs into the random forest machine learning algorithm to identify climatic drivers of fog presence and longevity over the landscape. The present-day models suggested that daily temperature difference is a driving force behind fog presence and longevity. Trends in fog presence from 2000-2020 indicated great interannual variability. Finally, fog presence was modeled under a 2080 climate projection to shed light on the future of fog presence under a projected warmer climate. Model results projected an overall decline in fog presence during the dry season in the 2080s. Decreased fog presence as a result of increased temperature difference under a warmer climate remains to be a topic of investigation as to the impact on future redwood habitat suitability.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

California & Oregon Ecological Forecasting: Detecting and Forecasting Fog Occurrence, Frequency, and Change to Inform Coast Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) Habitat Assessments

Fog and low clouds play an important role in providing moisture to coastal ecosystems. Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests are currently distributed along a narrow strip of coastline in California and Oregon and rely on the presence of marine fog for moisture availability during the dry season (June-October). Recent time series analyses presented an uncertain future of fog frequency; however, a decline in fog presence may have adverse effects on the coast redwood habitat. To complement ongoing work by Save the Redwoods League, a non-profit organization dedicated to coast redwood forest management, the team analyzed hourly fog data from the Geospatial Operational Environmental Satellite 17 (GOES-17) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and daily cloud cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite. To explore present day fog longevity, GOES-17 was utilized to map the number of fog hours per day for the 2019 and 2020 dry seasons. The MODIS cloud flag was used to map the presence or absence of daily fog, which was summarized to create a monthly fog frequency dataset and identify trends in fog presence between 2000-2020. Both datasets were used as inputs into the random forest machine learning algorithm to identify climatic drivers of fog presence and longevity over the landscape. The present-day models suggested that daily temperature difference is a driving force behind fog presence and longevity. Trends in fog presence from 2000-2020 indicated great interannual variability. Finally, fog presence was modeled under a 2080 climate projection to shed light on the future of fog presence under a projected warmer climate. Model results projected an overall decline in fog presence during the dry season in the 2080s. Decreased fog presence as a result of increased temperature difference under a warmer climate remains to be a topic of investigation as to the impact on future redwood habitat suitability.

DEVELOP Technical Paper↗

Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks in the Context of the Global Circulation and Hydrological Cycle

Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback (SW FB ) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report (AR5) ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical SW FB ’s that are more positive than those simulated in previous generation CMIP5 GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean SW FB can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. The response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean SW FB — inconsistent with extreme ECS.

extratropical cloud response↗

It Depends - An Overview of Probabilistic Risk Analysis Concepts

How do you understand the data and assumptions in your probabilistic analysis? The PRA analyst needs to understand the data and input assumptions to effectively communicate the system/mission's risks. The decision maker also needs to understand conservatisms and how to interpret uncertainty in the PRA results. Properties such as assumptions on the distributions, uncertainty, use of test data, and common cause modeling can be the subject of much discussion, but often are the leading drivers of a risk profile.

risk assessment↗

A Particle and Energy Balance Model of the Orificed Hollow Cathode

A particle and energy balance model of orificed hollow cathodes was developed to assist in cathode design. The model presented here is an ensemble of original work by the author and previous work by others. The processes in the orifice region are considered to be one of the primary drivers in determining cathode performance, since the current density was greatest in this volume (up to 1.6 x 10(exp 8) A/m2). The orifice model contains comparatively few free parameters, and its results are used to bound the free parameters for the insert model. Next, the insert region model is presented. The sensitivity of the results to the free parameters is assessed, and variation of the free parameters in the orifice dominates the calculated power consumption and plasma properties. The model predictions are compared to data from a low-current orificed hollow cathode. The predicted power consumption exceeds the experimental results. Estimates of the plasma properties in the insert region overlap Langmuir probe data, and the predicted orifice plasma suggests the presence of one or more double layers. Finally, the model is used to examine the operation of higher current cathodes.

Domonkos, Matthew T.↗

Evolution and Reengineering of NASA's Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF)

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) is a multimission support facility that performs ground navigation and spacecraft trajectory design services for a wide range of scientific satellites. The FDF also supports the NASA Space Network by providing orbit determination and tracking data evaluation services for the Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The FDF traces its history to early NASA missions in the 1960's, including navigation support to the Apollo lunar missions. Over its 40 year history, the FDF has undergone many changes in its architecture, services offered, missions supported, management approach, and business operation. As a fully reimbursable facility (users now pay 100% of all costs for FDF operations and sustaining engineering activities), the FDF has faced significant challenges in recent years in providing mission critical products and services at minimal cost while defining and implementing upgrades necessary to meet future mission demands. This paper traces the history of the FDF and discusses significant events in the past that impacted the FDF infrastructure and/or business model, and the events today that are shaping the plans for the FDF in the next decade. Today's drivers for change include new mission requirements, the availability of new technology for spacecraft navigation, and continued pressures for cost reduction from FDF users. Recently, the FDF completed an architecture study based on these drivers that defines significant changes planned for the facility. This paper discusses the results of this study and a proposed implementation plan. As a case study in how flight dynamics operations have evolved and will continue to evolve, this paper focuses on two periods of time (1992 and the present) in order to contrast the dramatic changes that have taken place in the FDF. This paper offers observations and plans for the evolution of the FDF over the next ten years. Finally, this paper defines the mission model of the future for the FDF based on NASA's current mission list and planning for the Constellation Program. As part of this discussion the following are addressed: the relevance and benefits of a multi-mission facility for NASA's navigation operations in the future; anticipated technologies affecting ground orbit determination; continued incorporation of Commercial Off-the-shelf (COTS) software into the FDF; challenges of a business model that relies entirely on user fees to fund facility upgrades; anticipated changes in flight dynamics services required; and considerations for defining architecture upgrades given a set of cost drivers.

Stengle, Thomas↗