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Astronomical data analysis software and systems I; Proceedings of the 1st Annual Conference, Tucson, AZ, Nov. 6-8, 1991

Consideration is given to a definition of a distribution format for X-ray data, the Einstein on-line system, the NASA/IPAC extragalactic database, COBE astronomical databases, Cosmic Background Explorer astronomical databases, the ADAM software environment, the Groningen Image Processing System, search for a common data model for astronomical data analysis systems, deconvolution for real and synthetic apertures, pitfalls in image reconstruction, a direct method for spectral and image restoration, and a discription of a Poisson imagery super resolution algorithm. Also discussed are multivariate statistics on HI and IRAS images, a faint object classification using neural networks, a matched filter for improving SNR of radio maps, automated aperture photometry of CCD images, interactive graphics interpreter, the ROSAT extreme ultra-violet sky survey, a quantitative study of optimal extraction, an automated analysis of spectra, applications of synthetic photometry, an algorithm for extra-solar planet system detection and data reduction facilities for the William Herschel telescope.

Worrall, Diana M.↗

StarView: The object oriented design of the ST DADS user interface

StarView is the user interface being developed for the Hubble Space Telescope Data Archive and Distribution Service (ST DADS). ST DADS is the data archive for HST observations and a relational database catalog describing the archived data. Users will use StarView to query the catalog and select appropriate datasets for study. StarView sends requests for archived datasets to ST DADS which processes the requests and returns the database to the user. StarView is designed to be a powerful and extensible user interface. Unique features include an internal relational database to navigate query results, a form definition language that will work with both CRT and X interfaces, a data definition language that will allow StarView to work with any relational database, and the ability to generate adhoc queries without requiring the user to understand the structure of the ST DADS catalog. Ultimately, StarView will allow the user to refine queries in the local database for improved performance and merge in data from external sources for correlation with other query results. The user will be able to create a query from single or multiple forms, merging the selected attributes into a single query. Arbitrary selection of attributes for querying is supported. The user will be able to select how query results are viewed. A standard form or table-row format may be used. Navigation capabilities are provided to aid the user in viewing query results. Object oriented analysis and design techniques were used in the design of StarView to support the mechanisms and concepts required to implement these features. One such mechanism is the Model-View-Controller (MVC) paradigm. The MVC allows the user to have multiple views of the underlying database, while providing a consistent mechanism for interaction regardless of the view. This approach supports both CRT and X interfaces while providing a common mode of user interaction. Another powerful abstraction is the concept of a Query Model. This concept allows a single query to be built form a single or multiple forms before it is submitted to ST DADS. Supporting this concept is the adhoc query generator which allows the user to select and qualify an indeterminate number attributes from the database. The user does not need any knowledge of how the joins across various tables are to be resolved. The adhoc generator calculates the joins automatically and generates the correct SQL query.

Williams, J. D.↗

Enabling Advanced Automation in Spacecraft Operations with the Spacecraft Emergency Response System

True autonomy is the Holy Grail of spacecraft mission operations. The goal of launching a satellite and letting it manage itself throughout its useful life is a worthy one. With true autonomy, the cost of mission operations would be reduced to a negligible amount. Under full autonomy, any problems (no matter the severity or type) that may arise with the spacecraft would be handled without any human intervention via some combination of smart sensors, on-board intelligence, and/or smart automated ground system. Until the day that complete autonomy is practical and affordable to deploy, incremental steps of deploying ever-increasing levels of automation (computerization of once manual tasks) on the ground and on the spacecraft are gradually decreasing the cost of mission operations. For example, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA-GSFC) has been flying spacecraft with low cost operations for several years. NASA-GSFC's SMEX (Small Explorer) and MIDEX (Middle Explorer) missions have effectively deployed significant amounts of automation to enable the missions to fly predominately in 'light-out' mode. Under light-out operations the ground system is run without human intervention. Various tools perform many of the tasks previously performed by the human operators. One of the major issues in reducing human staff in favor of automation is the perceived increased in risk of losing data, or even losing a spacecraft, because of anomalous conditions that may occur when there is no one in the control center. When things go wrong, missions deploying advanced automation need to be sure that anomalous conditions are detected and that key personal are notified in a timely manner so that on-call team members can react to those conditions. To ensure the health and safety of its lights-out missions, NASA-GSFC's Advanced Automation and Autonomy branch (Code 588) developed the Spacecraft Emergency Response System (SERS). The SERS is a Web-based collaborative environment that enables secure distributed fault and resource management. The SERS incorporates the use of intelligent agents, threaded discussions, workflow, database connectivity, and links to a variety of communications devices (e.g., two-way paging, PDA's, and Internet phones) via commercial gateways. When the SERS detects a problem, it notifies on-call team members, who then can remotely take any necessary actions to resolve the anomalies.The SERS goes well beyond a simple '911' system that sends out an error code to everyone with a pager. Instead, SERS' software agents send detailed data (i.e., notifications) to the most appropriate team members based on the type and severity of the anomaly and the skills of the on-call team members. The SERS also allows the team members to respond to the notifications from their wireless devices. This unique capability ensures rapid response since the team members no longer have to go to a PC or the control center for every anomalous event. Most importantly, the SERS enables safe experimentation with various techniques for increasing levels of automation, leading to robust autonomy. For the MIDEX missions at NASA GSFC, the SERS is used to provide 'human-in-the-loop' automation. During lights-out operations, as greater control is given to the MIDEX automated systems, the SERS can be configured to page remote personnel and keep them informed regarding actions taking place in the control center. Remote off-duty operators can even be given the option of enabling or inhibiting a specific automated response in near real time via their two-way pagers. The SERS facilitates insertion of new technology to increase automation, while maintaining the safety and security of mission resources. This paper will focus on SERS' overall functionality and how SERS has been designed to handle the monitoring and emergency response for missions with varying levels of automation. The paper will also convey some of the key lessons learned from SERS' deployment across of variety of missions, highlighting this incremental approach to achieving 'robust autonomy'.

Breed, Julie↗

NASA's MERBoard: An Interactive Collaborative Workspace Platform

This chapter describes the ongoing process by which a multidisciplinary group at NASA's Ames Research Center is designing and implementing a large interactive work surface called the MERBoard Collaborative Workspace. A MERBoard system involves several distributed, large, touch-enabled, plasma display systems with custom MERBoard software. A centralized server and database back the system. We are continually tuning MERBoard to support over two hundred scientists and engineers during the surface operations of the Mars Exploration Rover Missions. These scientists and engineers come from various disciplines and are working both in small and large groups over a span of space and time. We describe the multidisciplinary, human-centered process by which this h4ERBoard system is being designed, the usage patterns and social interactions that we have observed, and issues we are currently facing.

Trimble, Jay↗

From Surface Chlorophyll a to Phytoplankton Community Composition in Oceanic Waters

The objective of the present study is to examine the potential of using the near-surface total chlorophyll a concentration (C(sub surf)), as it can be derived from ocean color observation, to infer the column-integrated and the vertical distribution of the phytoplanktonic biomass, both in a quantitative way and in a qualitative way (z.e., in terms of community structure). Within this context, a large HPLC (High Performance Liquid Chromatography) pigment database has been analyzed. It includes 2419 vertical pigment profiles, all sampled in Case-1 waters with various trophic states. The relationshps between C(sub surf) and the total chlorophyll alpha vertical distribution, as previously derived by Morel and Berthon, are fully confirmed, as the present results coincide with the previous ones. This agreement allows to go further, namely to examine the possibility of extracting relationships between C(sub surf) and the vertical composition of the algal assemblages. Thanks to the detailed pigment composition available from HPLC measurements, the contribution of three size classes (micro-, nano-, and pico-phytoplankton) to the local total chlorophyll a concentration can be assessed. Corroborating previous findings (e.g., large species dominate in eutrophc environments, whereas tiny phytoplankton prevail in oligotrophic zones), the results lead to a statistically based parameterization. The predictive skill of this parameterization is successfully tested on a separate data set. With such a tool, the vertical total chlorophyll a profiles associated with each size class can be inferred from the sole knowledge of C(sub surf). By combining this tool with satellite ocean color data, it becomes conceivable to quantify on a global scale the phytoplankton biomass associated with each of the three size classes.

Uitz, Julia↗

Advances to a Global Agroclimatology Solar Insolation and Meteorological Parameter Data Base: Improved Solar Irradiance up to Hourly Temporal Resolution

A primary objective of NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to facilitate the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the energy, agricultural, and architectural industries. To this end daily averaged solar data from several NASA projects and metrological data from a NASA assimilation model have long been reformatted and via a user friendly web based data portal (https://power.larc.nasa.gov) at the native resolution of each data products. Potential users can access solar and metrological data in a column formatted DSSAT ASCII format by entering single site specific coordinates or from an area by entering the appropriate area coordinates. Upgrades to the POWER data portal have been implemented that result in a complete upgrade of the base solar insolation data products. From the years 1984 through 2000, a new version of the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) and Clouds is utilized that reduces the RMS relative to surface measurements. Additionally, Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) SYNoptic 1x1 Degree (SYN1Deg) data products are utilized starting from January 1, 2001 through 3 months of real-time. The CERES Fast Longwave and SHortwave radiative Fluxes (FLASHFlux) is still used to provided daily data spanning from the end of SYN1Deg to within 7 days of real-time. Meteorological parameters now are taken from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) data set which provides higher resolution data products (hourly and 0.5 x 625 degree) covering the entire globe. Besides updating the solar and meteorological data products, this new version features new data products such as photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), more cloud information, estimates of soil temperatures and improved options for long-term climatological data requests. More than 36+ years daily time slices are included in the combined solar and meteorological data sets. However, perhaps the most important innovation of the POWER GIS-enabled Web Services is the provision of hourly solar and meteorological data products beginning in Jan 1, 2001. The hourly values will enable more detailed modeling and crop analysis that incorporates the diurnal variability of these parameters. The new capability is made possible by utilizing both the CERES SYN1Deg and MERRA-2 data products that include parameters at these resolutions. An assessment of both the meteorological and the solar irradiance data are based upon comparisons with globally distributed surface observations. The meteorological observations from the National Center for Environmental Information’s “Integrated Surface Database” as well as the “Global Summary of the Day” (GSOD) data files. The estimates of solar insolation are compared to the Baseline Solar Radiation Network (BSRN) and other high quality surface measurement networks. Results from the uncertainty assessments demonstrates that the NASA’s meteorological and solar irradiance data can represent a viable alternative to surface observations, particularly in data sparse regions of the world.

solar irradiance↗

Particle Interaction Physics Model Formulation for Plume-Surface Interaction Erosion and Cratering

The Predictive Simulation Capability development team of the STMD Game Changing Development sponsored PSI project is implementing computational simulation capability for the efficient and accurate prediction of Plume-Surface Interaction induced surface erosion and cratering in Martian and Lunar environments. The status of the Focus Area 3 of the PSI project in the generation and efficient application of accurate soil particle composition modeling in the Gas-Granular Flow Solver (GGFS) computational framework is presented. The process of constitutive closure model database generation using DEM particle interaction modeling for capturing the effects of irregular particle shape and poly-disperse mixture distribution effects is outlined. This capability has now been ported to NASA supercomputer assets and NASA engineers successfully demonstrated technology and skillset transfer in model generation for spherical and irregularly shaped, mono-disperse and bi-disperse mixture compositions. Assessment of the computational efficiency and practicality of the academic serially executed DEM tools on NASA supercomputers identified the need to migrate to a DEM framework capable of performing parallel simulations in a simultaneous process orchestrated in an automated setup, execution, database extraction, and dataset delivery ready for application simulations. The LIGGGHTS DEM toolset has been selected as the most suitable tool to migrate the DEM simulations. Once the soil model generation process is implemented, models capturing the shape and poly-dispersity effects will be generated to perform much refined validation simulations against the experiments performed under the PSI project. The application readiness of the soil models currently operational in GGFS was presented for the example of a full scale, 3-D simulation of the plume induced erosion and crater formation of the Apollo LM at an elevation of 5m above ground in a low pressure, near vacuum background.

Peter A Liever↗

Particle Interaction Physics Model Formulation for Plume-Surface Interaction Erosion and Cratering

The Predictive Simulation Capability development team of the STMD Game Changing Development sponsored PSI project is implementing computational simulation capability for the efficient and accurate prediction of Plume-Surface Interaction induced surface erosion and cratering in Martian and Lunar environments. The status of the Focus Area 3 of the PSI project in the generation and efficient application of accurate soil particle composition modeling in the Gas-Granular Flow Solver (GGFS) computational framework is presented. The process of constitutive closure model database generation using DEM particle interaction modeling for capturing the effects of irregular particle shape and poly-disperse mixture distribution effects is outlined. This capability has now been ported to NASA supercomputer assets and NASA engineers successfully demonstrated technology and skillset transfer in model generation for spherical and irregularly shaped, mono-disperse and bi-disperse mixture compositions. Assessment of the computational efficiency and practicality of the academic serially executed DEM tools on NASA supercomputers identified the need to migrate to a DEM framework capable of performing parallel simulations in a simultaneous process orchestrated in an automated setup, execution, database extraction, and dataset delivery ready for application simulations. The LIGGGHTS DEM toolset has been selected as the most suitable tool to migrate the DEM simulations. Once the soil model generation process is implemented, models capturing the shape and poly-dispersity effects will be generated to perform much refined validation simulations against the experiments performed under the PSI project. The application readiness of the soil models currently operational in GGFS was presented for the example of a full scale, 3-D simulation of the plume induced erosion and crater formation of the Apollo LM at an elevation of 5m above ground in a low pressure, near vacuum background.

Peter A Liever↗

Properties of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Northwest Photon Dominated Region of NGC 7023. I. PAH Size, Charge, Composition, and Structure Distribution

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) emission in the Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph spectral map of the northwest photon dominated region (PDR) in NGC 7023 was analyzed exclusively using PAH spectra from the NASA Ames PAH IR Spectroscopic Database (www.astrochem.org/pahdb). The 5-15 micron spectrum at each pixel is fitted using a non-negative-least-squares fitting approach. The fits are of good quality, allowing decomposition of the PAH emission into four subclasses: size, charge, composition, and hydrogen adjacency (structure). Maps tracing PAH subclass distributions across the region paint a coherent astrophysical picture. Once past some 20 seconds of arc from HD 200775, the emission is dominated by the more stable, large, symmetric, compact PAH cations with smaller, neutral PAHs taking over along the lines-of-sight toward the more distant molecular cloud. The boundary between the PDR and the denser cloud material shows up as a distinct discontinuity in the breakdown maps. Noteworthy is the requirement for PANH cations to fit the bulk of the 6.2 and 11.0 micron features and the indication of PAH photo-dehydrogenation and fragmentation close to HD 200775. Decomposition of the spectral maps into "principal" subclass template spectra provides additional insight into the behavior of each subclass. However, the general applicability of this computationally more efficient approach is presently undetermined. This is the first time the spectra of individual PAHs are exclusively used to fit the 5-15 micron region and analyze the spatial behavior of the aromatic infrared bands, providing fundamental, new information about astronomical PAH subpopulations including their dependence on, and response to, changes in local conditions.

northwest photon↗

The structure of the vorticity field in turbulent channel flow. Part 1: Analysis of instantaneous fields and statistical correlations

An investigation into the existence of hairpin vortices in turbulent channel flow is conducted using a database generated by the large eddy simulation technique. It is shown that away from the wall the distribution of the inclination angle of vorticity vector attains its maximum at about 45 deg to the wall. Two point correlations of velocity and vorticity fluctuations strongly support a flow model consisting of vortical structures inclined at 45 deg to the wall. The instantaneous vorticity vectors plotted in planes inclined at 45 deg show that the flow contains an appreciable number of hairpins. Vortex lines are used to display the three dimensional structure of hairpins, which are shown to be generated from deformation of transverse vortex filaments.

Moin, P.↗

The structure of the vorticity field in turbulent channel flow. I - Analysis of instantaneous fields and statistical correlations

An investigation into the existence of hairpin vortices in turbulent channel flow is conducted using a database generated by the large eddy simulation technique. It is shown that away from the wall the distribution of the inclination angle of vorticity vector attains its maximum at about 45 deg to the wall. Two point correlations of velocity and vorticity fluctuations strongly support a flow model consisting of vortical structures inclined at 45 deg to the wall. The instantaneous vorticity vectors plotted in planes inclined at 45 deg show that the flow contains an appreciable number of hairpins. Vortex lines are used to display the three dimensional structure of hairpins, which are shown to be generated from deformation of transverse vortex filaments.

Moin, P.↗

Cataloging and indexing - The development of the Space Shuttle mission data base and catalogs from earth observations hand-held photography

All earth-looking photographs acquired by Space Shuttle astronauts are identified, located, and catalogued after each mission. The photographs have been entered into a computerized database at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The database in its two modes - computer and catalog - is organized and presented to provide a scope and level of detail designed to be useful in Earth science activities, resource management, environmental studies, and public affairs. The computerized database can be accessed free through standard communication networks 24 hours a day, and the catalogs are distributed throughout the world. Photograph viewing centers are available in the United States, and photographic copies can be obtained through government-supported centers.

Nelson, Raymond M.↗

Calibration of the ROSAT HRI Spectral Response

The ROSAT High Resolution Imager has a limited (2-band) spectral response. This spectral capability can give X-ray hardness ratios on spatial scales of 5 arcseconds. The spectral response of the center of the detector was calibrated before the launch of ROSAT, but the gain decreases-with time and also is a function of position on the detector. To complicate matters further, the satellite is "wobbled", possibly moving a source across several spatial gain states. These difficulties have prevented the spectral response of the ROSAT HRI from being used for scientific measurements. We have used Bright Earth data and in-flight calibration sources to map the spatial and temporal gain changes, and written software which will allow ROSAT users to generate a calibrated XSPEC response matrix and hence determine a calibrated hardness ratio. In this report, we describe the calibration procedure and show how to obtain a response matrix. In Section 2 we give an overview of the calibration procedure, in Section 3 we give a summary of HRI spatial and temporal gain variations. Section 4 describes the routines used to determine the gain distribution of a source. In Sections 5 and 6, we describe in detail how the Bright Earth database and calibration sources are used to derive a corrected response matrix for a given observation. Finally, Section 7 describes how to use the software.

Prestwich, Andrea↗

Calibration of the ROSAT HRI Spectral Response

The ROSAT High Resolution Imager has a limited (2-band) spectral response. This spectral capability can give X-ray hardness ratios on spatial scales of 5 arcseconds. The spectral response of the center of the detector was calibrated before the launch of ROSAT, but the gain decreases with time and also is a function of position on the detector. To complicate matters further, the satellite is 'wobbled', possibly moving a source across several spatial gain states. These difficulties have prevented the spectral response of the ROSAT High Resolution Imager (HRI) from being used for scientific measurements. We have used Bright Earth data and in-flight calibration sources to map the spatial and temporal gain changes, and written software which will allow ROSAT users to generate a calibrated XSPEC (an x ray spectral fitting package) response matrix and hence determine a calibrated hardness ratio. In this report, we describe the calibration procedure and show how to obtain a response matrix. In Section 2 we give an overview of the calibration procedure, in Section 3 we give a summary of HRI spatial and temporal gain variations. Section 4 describes the routines used to determine the gain distribution of a source. In Sections 5 and 6, we describe in detail how, the Bright Earth database and calibration sources are used to derive a corrected response matrix for a given observation. Finally, Section 7 describes how to use the software.

Prestwich, Andrea H.↗

One-Dimensional Spontaneous Raman Measurements of Temperature Made in a Gas Turbine Combustor

The NASA Glenn Research Center is working with the aeronautics industry to develop highly fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly gas turbine combustor technology. This effort includes testing new hardware designs at conditions that simulate the high-temperature, high-pressure environment expected in the next-generation of high-performance engines. Glenn has the only facilities in which such tests can be performed. One aspect of these tests is the use of nonintrusive optical and laser diagnostics to measure combustion species concentration, fuel/air ratio, fuel drop size, and velocity, and to visualize the fuel injector spray pattern and some combustion species distributions. These data not only help designers to determine the efficacy of specific designs, but provide a database for computer modelers and enhance our understanding of the many processes that take place within a combustor. Until recently, we lacked one critical capability, the ability to measure temperature. This article summarizes our latest developments in that area. Recently, we demonstrated the first-ever use of spontaneous Raman scattering to measure combustion temperatures within the Advanced Subsonics Combustion Rig (ASCR) sector rig. We also established the highest rig pressure ever achieved for a continuous-flow combustor facility, 54.4 bar. The ASCR facility can provide operating pressures from 1 to 60 bar (60 atm). This photograph shows the Raman system setup next to the ASCR rig. The test was performed using a NASA-concept fuel injector and Jet-A fuel over a range of air inlet temperatures, pressures, and fuel/air ratios.

Hicks, Yolanda R.↗

Lunar Prospecting Using Thermal Wadis and Compact Rovers: Infrastructure for Surviving the Lunar Night - Part A

Recent missions have confirmed the existence of water and other volatiles on the Moon, both in permanently-shadowed craters and elsewhere. Non-volatile lunar resources may represent significant additional value as infrastructure or manufacturing feedstock. Characterization of lunar resources in terms of abundance concentrations, distribution, and recoverability is limited to in-situ Apollo samples and the expanding remote-sensing database. This paper introduces an approach to lunar resource prospecting supported by a simple lunar surface infrastructure based on the Thermal Wadi concept of thermal energy storage and using compact rovers equipped with appropriate prospecting sensors and demonstration resource extraction capabilities. Thermal Wadis are engineered sources of heat and power based on the storage and retrieval of solar-thermal energy in modified lunar regolith. Because Thermal Wadis keep compact prospecting rovers warm during periods of lunar darkness, the rovers are able to survive months to years on the lunar surface rather than just weeks without being required to carry the burdensome capability to do so. The resulting lower-cost, long-lived rovers represent a potential paradigm breakthrough in extra-terrestrial prospecting productivity and will enable the production of detailed resource maps. Integrating resource processing and other technology demonstrations that are based on the content of the resource maps will inform engineering economic studies that can define the true resource potential of the Moon. Once this resource potential is understood quantitatively, humans might return to the Moon with an economically sound objective including where to go, what to do upon arrival, and what to bring along.

Sacksteder, Kurt R.↗

Fireballs in the Sky: An Augmented Reality Citizen Science Program

Fireballs in the Sky is an innovative Australian citizen science program that connects the public with the research of the Desert Fireball Network (DFN). This research aims to understand the early workings of the solar system, and Fireballs in the Sky invites people around the world to learn about this science, contributing fireball sightings via a user-friendly augmented reality mobile app. Tens of thousands of people have downloaded the app world-wide and participated in the science of meteoritics. The Fireballs in the Sky app allows users to get involved with the Desert Fireball Network research, supplementing DFN observations and providing enhanced coverage by reporting their own meteor sightings to DFN scientists. Fireballs in the Sky reports are used to track the trajectories of meteors - from their orbit in space to where they might have landed on Earth. Led by Phil Bland at Curtin University in Australia, the Desert Fireball Network (DFN) uses automated observatories across Australia to triangulate trajectories of meteorites entering the atmosphere, determine pre-entry orbits, and pinpoint their fall positions. Each observatory is an autonomous intelligent imaging system, taking 1000 by 36 megapixel all-sky images throughout the night, using neural network algorithms to recognize events. They are capable of operating for 12 months in a harsh environment, and store all imagery collected. We developed a completely automated software pipeline for data reduction, and built a supercomputer database for storage, allowing us to process our entire archive. The DFN currently stands at 50 stations distributed across the Australian continent, covering an area of 2.5 million square kilometers. Working with DFN's partners at NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute, the team is expanding the network beyond Australia to locations around the world. Fireballs in the Sky allows a growing public base to learn about and participate in this exciting research.

Day, Brian↗

Comparison of Entry Descent and Landing Aerodynamic Databases with Uncertainty Quantification Developed Using Machine Learning Techniques

When developing the aerodynamic databases for use in trajectory simulations, it is important to develop a system of metrics to qualify which aerodynamic models are best to use. Since aerodynamics are just one input into trajectory simulations, the results of these simulations do not reflect on the quality of the aerodynamic database used. This means that aerodynamic database comparisons must be done offline. While traditional metrics that focus on mean/nominal predictions are a good first step, more robust estimates of the prediction interval become important as more focused uncertainty models are developed. We explore the limitations of evaluating aerodynamic models based purely on nominal-centered response surfaces. Before elaborating and evaluating metrics based on distributed models, the value of evaluating prediction interval and confidence interval are discussed to conclude that prediction intervals are more relevant to the use of trajectory analysis. Several metrics to evaluate the prediction interval are introduced with a focus on the standard calibration metric. Finally, we compare candidate models using both mean and distributed metrics. A finalized candidate model developed using state of the art machine learning methods is compared to a baseline model developed using traditional aerodynamic database modeling techniques.

Aerodynamic Database↗