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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Supercritical Carbon Dioxide and Water using TraPPE and SWM4-NDP Force Fields

The increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuels and the consequential impact on global climate change have made CO 2 capture, storage, and utilization a significant area of focus for current research. In most electrochemical CO 2 applications, water is used as a proton donor due to its high availability and mobility and use as a polar solvent. Additionally, supercritical CO 2 is a promising avenue for electrochemical applications due to its unique chemical and physical properties. Consequently, understanding the interactions between water and supercritical CO 2 is of great importance for future electrochemical applications. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a powerful tool that enables atomistic-resolution dynamics of molecular systems, which can complement and guide future experimental investigations. This study employed atomistic MD to study the cosolubilities, codiffusivities, and structure of supercritical CO 2 and water systems, with a polarizable water model (SWM4-NDP) and a nonpolarizable CO 2 model (TraPPE). Additionally, ab initio MD simulations were used to better understand how atomistic polarizable/nonpolarizable models compare to explicit modeling of electron densities. The polarizable water model exhibited substantial improvement in water-associated properties. In conclusion, we anticipate the development of a compatible polarizable CO 2 model to yield similar improvement, providing a pathway for realizing novel high-pressure electrochemical systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accurate Force Field for Carbon Dioxide–Silica Interactions Based on Density Functional Theory

Fluid–silica interfaces are ubiquitous in chemistry, occurring in both natural geochemical environments and practical applications ranging from separations to catalysis. Simulations of these interfaces have been, and continue to be, a significant avenue for understanding their behavior. A constraining factor, however, is the availability of accurate force fields. Most simulations use traditional “mixing rules” to determine nonbonded dispersion interactions, an approach that has not been critically examined. Here, in this study, we present Lennard-Jones parameters for the interaction of carbon dioxide with silica interfaces that are optimized to reproduce density functional theory (DFT)-based binding energies. The modeling is based on the recently developed silica-DDEC force field, whose atomic charges are consistent with DFT calculations. Standard mixing rules are found to predict weaker CO 2 binding to silica than that obtained from DFT, an effect corrected by the optimized parameters given here. This behavior extends to other silica force fields (Clayff and Gulmen-Thompson), and the present Lennard-Jones parameters improve their performance as well. The effects of improved Lennard-Jones parameters on the structural and dynamical properties of condensed CO 2 in silica slit pores are also examined.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Local Atomic Structure in Photo-isomerized Ruthenium Sulfur Dioxide Complexes Revealed by Pair Distribution Function Analysis

SO 2 linkage photoisomerization in crystalline ruthenium-based complexes has demonstrated nanophotonic phenomena such as optical switching and nano-optomechanical transduction. Molecular insights into these materials have been explored largely via the characterization of their photoinduced crystal structures via in situ single-crystal X-ray diffraction, known as photocrystallography. Photoinduced molecular disorder is present, which photocrystallography can model to the extent that it is confined within the periodic boundary of a unit cell. However, non-periodic molecular disorder is suspected to exist as well. In situ total scattering experiments were therefore carried out on finely powdered crystals of four ruthenium-sulfur dioxide complexes. Data were modeled using light-minus-dark' difference pair distribution function analysis, which afforded photoinduced structural changes exclusively. This revealed structural features that were first compared against models of photoinduced crystal structures known a priori from photocrystallography. Furthermore, statistical inference was then employed, which evidenced generally good agreement between the total scattering data and the photocrystallographic models, while revealing real differences that are indicative of a structure with only a short-range order. Overall, our findings demonstrate that in situ light-induced total scattering experiments on finely powdered crystals are able to reveal the photoinduced structure. Overall, the evidence suggests that such structure could include a short-range order as well as photocrystallographic content. Our demonstration experiment offers a pathway to develop studies that capture the short-range order in linkage photoisomers, while we have outlined the procedure for testing the validity of associated structural models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subnanometer Scale Mapping of Hydrogen Doping in Vanadium Dioxide

Hydrogen donor doping of correlated electron systems such as vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ) profoundly modifies the ground state properties. The electrical behavior of H x VO 2 is strongly dependent on the hydrogen concentration; hence, atomic scale control of the doping process is necessary. It is however a nontrivial problem to quantitatively probe the hydrogen distribution in a solid matrix. As hydrogen transfers its sole electron to the material, the ionization mechanism is suppressed. Here in this study, a methodology mapping the doping distribution at subnanometer length scale is demonstrated across a H x VO 2 thin film focusing on the oxygen-hydrogen bonds using electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) coupled with first-principles EELS calculations. The hydrogen distribution was revealed to be nonuniform along the growth direction and between different VO 2 grains, calling for intricate hydrogenation mechanisms. Our study points to a powerful approach to quantitatively map dopant distribution in quantum materials relevant to energy and information science

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nanoscopic Titanium Dioxide Overlayers Improve the Durability of Porphyrin Molecular Electrocatalysts while Maintaining Molecular Structure and Redox Activity

Molecular catalysts, such as metalated porphyrins, are attractive cocatalysts for photocatalytic water splitting owing to their potential to simultaneously catalyze target reactions at their metal center, extend charge-separated-state lifetimes, and accumulate the requisite charge for product formation. However, porphyrin catalysts, like most molecular catalysts, are often limited by poor stability associated with demetalation, inactivation by undesired bonding (e.g., O2 coordination/redox/dimerization), and detachment from electrode supports or semiconducting photoabsorbers. In this study, nanoscopic titanium dioxide (TiO2) overlayers, deposited by atomic layer deposition (ALD), are demonstrated to encapsulate cobalt(III) meso-tetra(4-carboxyphenyl) porphyrin chloride (CoTCPP) molecular catalysts and thereby improve their adhesion to electrode surfaces over a wide range of electrode potentials spanning from -1.0 V vs RHE to +1.8 V vs RHE. Through analysis of Raman and ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy, it was confirmed that the metalloporphyrin structure was maintained when the surface-bound CoTCPP was encapsulated by 10 - 250 ALD cycles (~2 - 18 nm thick) of TiO2. Additional characterization of CoTCPP catalysts before and after electrochemical measurements reveals that up to 97% of the encapsulated CoTCPP remains tethered to the electrode surface after chronoamperometry tests under hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) conditions, compared to <36% for unencapsulated CoTCPP. This study also shows that encapsulated CoTCPP molecules remain partially redox active for overlayers up to 8 nm, which can also attenuate undesired redox mediator back reactions like ferricyanide reduction.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Polydiallylammonium-Polysulfone Multiblock Copolymers for Moisture-Swing Direct Air Capture of Carbon Dioxide

Polysulfones are an important class of materials for a variety of applications due to their excellent strength and thermal stability. Quaternary ammonium polymers are also useful materials due to their ion exchange properties, and such materials with alkaline counterions have been used to capture carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from ambient air through a moisture-driven mechanism. Herein, we design sulfone-based multiblock copolymers containing ammonium functionalities and demonstrate their potential for CO 2 capture. Specifically, a series of multiblock copolymers containing both polydiallyldimethylammonium (PDADMA) and polysulfone (PSf) blocks were synthesized. PSf blocks provide mechanical integrity, while the PDADMA blocks enable the direct air capture of CO 2 . Multiblock copolymers were synthesized at high yield, and PDADMA(OH)-PSf copolymer films with good flexibility and strength were formed with IECs of 424 μmol/g (17 mol % PDADMA(OH)), 1407 μmol/g (44 mol % PDADMA(OH)), and 1726 μmol/g (50 mol % PDADMA(OH)). Thermogravimetric analysis was used to determine that all films are thermally stable up to 345 °C. Differential scanning calorimetry revealed that the 17 and 44 mol % functionalized PDADMA(OH)-PSf multiblock copolymers showed one T g at 185 °C and 50 mol % PDADMA(OH)-PSf polymer showed a T g at 183 °C and a second T g at 16 °C. Atomic force microscopy showed that the multiblock polymers exhibit disordered phase separation. Furthermore, the copolymer materials displayed moisture-swing direct air capture of CO 2 , opening up pathways to utilize polymer architecture and chemistry to tailor the properties of promising sorbents.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stable Co-valorization of Carbon Dioxide and Methane via Dynamic Reconstruction of a Metal Oxide Solid Solution Catalyst

Dry reforming of methane (DRM) is a process that converts two greenhouse gases (methane and carbon dioxide) into syngas, a mixture of H 2 and CO, that can lead to a variety of value-added chemicals. Owing to its endothermic nature, high reaction temperatures up to 800 °C are typically required and the grand challenge lies in developing robust catalysts without sintering and coking-induced deactivation during the long-term on-stream operation. Towards this aim, herein, a robust complex oxide-supported NiCu alloy catalyst was generated in situ during DRM. By leveraging the configurational stability of a solid oxide solution precursor, tightly anchored NiCu bimetallic nanoparticles were in situ exsoluted and acted as the active sites in DRM. The as-afforded catalyst exhibited stable performance for DRM due to the ability to repel coke off the surface as the reaction proceeds. Kinetic experiments along with top surface characterization detail the reconstruction behavior of the solid oxide solution under DRM reaction conditions. In conclusion, the fundamental insights from this work provide guidance on generating resistant and flexible catalysts via in situ active sites formation from easily synthesized metal oxide solid solutions.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Catholyte Modulation in Suppressing the Initial Capacity Fade of Zinc Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide Coin Cells

Despite its potential for zinc–manganese oxide batteries, electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD) can experience capacity fade due to a deficiency in the Mn 2+ supply at the cathode electrolyte interphase (CEI) from side reactions, even in the presence of an electrolyte additive. In this work, electrolyte loading modulation at the cathode electrolyte interface (CEI) was correlated with Zn∥EMD cell capacity retention and cycling performance, as a proposed measure to curb the initial capacity fade observed in EMD. Initial galvanostatic charge/discharge cycling, with varied electrolyte loading, revealed severe capacity fade (from ~188 to 10 mAh g –1 for the highest loading of 200 μL) within the first 15 cycles. Such a decrease in cell capacity is correlated with the formation of a Mn 4+ deposit on the current collector and consequently, the Mn 2+ depletion at CEI, as was supported by elemental and Raman analyses. Interestingly, confinement of the electrolyte to the CEI at a lower (≤15 μL) electrolyte loading mitigated Mn 4+ side-deposition, maintaining the cell capacity at >80% over the first 15 cycles. Interfacial Mn supply/depletion could be monitored via voltammetric analysis based on changes of the Zn 2+ insertionreduction peak. Additional galvanostatic experiments corroborated the voltammetric interpretation and the proposed degradation pathway in the studied cell conditions. The outcomes of this work provide practical insight into coin-cell design and configuration strategies for developing Zn∥EMD batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photothermal Properties of Nanostructured Black Titanium Dioxide for Targeted Cellular and Microbial Elimination

Heterophase black titanium dioxide (hB-TiO 2 ), characterized by broadened near-infrared (NIR) absorption, has emerged as a promising photothermally active nanomaterial. This study focused on the synthesis of nanoscale hB-TiO 2 and its evaluation as a multifunctional agent for photothermal therapy (PTT). The purity and composition of the mixed-phase nanoscale hB-TiO 2 were demonstrated by X-ray diffraction, and the morphology of nanoparticles was imaged by transmission electron microscopy. Extensive additional characterization was conducted to validate the optoelectronic properties. The material was further evaluated in biological systems using NIH 3T3-GFP fibroblasts and the fungus Candida albicans. Nanoscale hB-TiO 2 exhibited good biocompatibility in the absence of laser irradiation and effectively ablated both NIH 3T3-GFP cells and C. albicans following 20 min of laser exposure. This noninvasive treatment strategy leverages NIR-responsive materials to induce localized hyperthermia. The findings provide grounds for the use of selectively induced hyperthermia, which could be employed for the targeted destruction of cells or fungi with minimal impact on surrounding tissue if the material is functionalized with specific targeting groups and delivered to cells or fungal infections.

Irradiation↗
DOE OSTI2024

ZeroCAL: Eliminating Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Limestone’s Decomposition to Decarbonize Cement Production

Limestone (calcite, CaCO 3 ) is an abundant and cost-effective source of calcium oxide (CaO) for cement and lime production. However, the thermochemical decomposition of limestone (~800 °C, 1 bar) to produce lime (CaO) results in substantial carbon dioxide (CO 2(g) ) emissions and energy use, i.e., ~1 tonne [t] of CO 2 and ~1.4 MWh per t of CaO produced. Here, we describe a new pathway to use CaCO 3 as a Ca source to make hydrated lime (portlandite, Ca(OH) 2 ) at ambient conditions (p, T) while nearly eliminating process CO 2(g) emissions (as low as 1.5 mol. % of the CO 2 in the precursor CaCO 3 , equivalent to 9 kg of CO 2(g) per t of Ca(OH) 2 ) within an aqueous flowelectrolysis/ pH-swing process that coproduces hydrogen (H 2(g) ) and oxygen (O 2(g) ). Because Ca(OH) 2 is a zero-carbon precursor for cement and lime production, this approach represents a significant advancement in the production of zero-carbon cement. The Zero CArbon Lime (ZeroCAL) process includes dissolution, separation/recovery, and electrolysis stages according to the following steps: (Step 1) chelator (e.g., ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid, EDTA)-promoted dissolution of CaCO 3 and complexation of Ca 2+ under basic (>pH 9) conditions, (Step 2a) Ca enrichment and separation using nanofiltration (NF), which allows separation of the Ca-EDTA complex from the accompanying bicarbonate (HCO 3 – ) species, (Step 2b) acidity-promoted decomplexation of Ca from EDTA, which allows near-complete chelator recovery and the formation of a Ca-enriched stream, and (Step 3) rapid precipitation of Ca(OH) 2 from the Ca-enriched stream using electrolytically produced alkalinity. These reactions can be conducted in a seawater matrix yielding coproducts including hydrochloric acid (HCl) and sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ), resulting from electrolysis and limestone dissolution, respectively. Careful analysis of the reaction stoichiometries and energy balances indicates that approximately 1.35 t of CaCO 3 , 1.09 t of water, 0.79 t of sodium chloride (NaCl), and ~2 MWh of electrical energy are required to produce 1 t of Ca(OH) 2 , with significant opportunity for process intensification. This approach has major implications for decarbonizing cement production within a paradigm that emphasizes the use of existing cement plants and electrification of industrial operations, while also creating approaches for alkalinity production that enable cost-effective and scalable CO 2 mineralization via Ca(OH) 2 carbonation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solvent Dynamics Are Critical to Understanding Carbon Dioxide Dissolution and Hydration in Water

Simulations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in water may aid in understanding the impact of its accumulation in aquatic environments and help advance technologies for carbon capture and utilization (via, e.g., mineralization). Quantum mechanical (QM) simulations based on static molecular models with polarizable continuum solvation poorly reproduce the energetics of CO 2 hydration to form carbonic acid in water, independent of the level of QM theory employed. Only with density-functional-theory-based molecular dynamics and rare-event sampling, followed by energy corrections based on embedded correlated wavefunction theory (in conjunction with density functional embedding theory), can a close agreement between theory and experiment be achieved. Such multilevel simulations can serve as benchmarks for simpler, less costly models, giving insight into potential errors of the latter. The strong influence of sampling/averaging over dynamical solvent configurations on the energetics stems from the difference in polarity of both the transition state and product (both polar) versus the reactant (nonpolar). When a solute undergoes a change in polarity during reaction, affecting its interaction with the solvent, careful assessment of the energetic contribution of the solvent response to this change is critical. Here, we show that static models (without structural sampling) that incorporate three explicit water molecules can yield far superior results than models with more explicit water molecules because fewer water molecules yield less configurational artifacts. Static models intelligently incorporating both explicit (molecules directly participating in the reaction) and implicit solvation, along with a proper QM theory, e.g., CCSD(T) for closed-shell systems, can close the accuracy gap between static and dynamic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leaf Trait Plasticity Alters Competitive Ability and Functioning of Simulated Tropical Trees in Response to Elevated Carbon Dioxide

The response of tropical ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) remains a critical uncertainty in projections of future climate. Here, we investigate how leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO 2 alters projections of tropical forest competitive dynamics and functioning. We use vegetation demographic model simulations to quantify how plasticity in leaf mass per area and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio alter the responses of carbon uptake, evapotranspiration, and competitive ability to a doubling of CO 2 in a tropical forest. Observationally constrained leaf trait plasticity in response to CO 2 fertilization reduces the degree to which tropical tree carbon uptake is affected by a doubling of CO 2 (up to -14.7% as compared to a case with no plasticity; 95% confidence interval [CI95%] -14.4 to -15.0). It also diminishes evapotranspiration (up to -7.0%, CI95% -6.4 to -7.7), and lowers competitive ability in comparison to a tree with no plasticity. Consideration of leaf trait plasticity to elevated CO 2 lowers tropical ecosystem carbon uptake and evapotranspirative cooling in the absence of changes in plant-type abundance. However, “plastic” responses to high CO 2 which maintain higher levels of plant productivity, many of which fall outside of the observed range of response, are potentially more competitively advantageous, thus, including changes in plant type abundance may mitigate these decreases in ecosystem functioning. Models that explicitly represent competition between plants with alternative leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO 2 are needed to capture these influences on tropical forest functioning and large-scale climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal Variability in Local Carbon Dioxide Biomass Burning Sources Over Central and Eastern US Using Airborne In Situ Enhancement Ratios

We present observations of local enhancements in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from local emissions sources over three eastern US regions during four deployments of the Atmospheric Carbon Transport-America (ACT-America) campaign between summer 2016 and spring 2018. Local CO 2 emissions were characterized by carbon monoxide (CO) to CO 2 enhancement ratios (i.e., ΔCO/ΔCO 2 ) in air mass mixing observed during aircraft transects within the planetary boundary layer. By analyzing regional-scale variability of CO 2 enhancements as a function of ΔCO/ΔCO 2 enhancement ratios, observed relative contributions to CO 2 emissions were separated into fossil fuel and biomass burning (BB) regimes across regions and seasons. CO 2 emission contributions attributed to biomass burning (ΔCO/ΔCO 2 > 4%) were negligible during summer and fall in all regions but climbed to ∼9%–11% of observed combustion contributions in the South during winter and spring. Relative CO 2 fire emission trends matched observed winter and spring BB contributions, but conflictingly predicted similar levels of BB during the fall. Satellite fire data from MODIS and VIIRS suggested the use of higher spatial resolution fire data that might improve modeled BB emissions but were not able to explain the bulk of the discrepancy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon Dioxide Production in Bedrock Beneath Soils Substantially Contributes to Forest Carbon Cycling

Abstract Soils are widely considered the primary terrestrial organic matter pool mediating carbon transactions with the atmosphere and groundwater. Because soils are both a host and a product of rhizosphere activity, they are thought to mark the location where photosynthetic fixation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is balanced by the oxidation of organic matter. However, in many terrestrial environments, the rhizosphere extends below soils and into fractured bedrock, and it is unknown if the resulting biological and hydrologic dynamics in bedrock have a significant impact on carbon cycling. Here we show substantial production of CO 2 in weathered bedrock at 4–8 m below the thin soils (<0.5 m thick) of a Northern California forest using innovative monitoring technology for sampling gases and water in fractured rock. The deep CO 2 production supports a persistent upward flux of CO 2(g) year‐round from bedrock to soil, constituting between 2% and 29% of the average daily CO 2 efflux from the land surface. When water is rapidly transported across the fractured bedrock vadose zone, nearly 50% of the CO 2 produced in the bedrock dissolves into water, promoting water‐rock interaction and export of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the unsaturated zone to groundwater, constituting as much as 80% of the DIC exiting the hillslope. Such CO 2 production in weathered bedrock is subject to unique moisture, temperature, biological, and mineralogical conditions which are currently missing from terrestrial carbon models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warming and Increased Respiration Have Transformed an Alpine Steppe Ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau From a Carbon Dioxide Sink Into a Source

Cold region ecosystems store vast amounts of soil organic carbon (C), which upon warming and decomposition can affect the C balance and potentially change these ecosystems from C sinks to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources. We quantified the decadal year-round CO 2 flux from an alpine steppe-ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau using eddy covariance and automatic chamber approaches during a period of significant warming (0.13°C per 10 years; and 0.18°C in the non-growing season alone: 1st October to next 30th April). The results showed that ongoing climate change, mainly warming within the topsoil layers, is the main reason for the site’s change from a sink for to a source of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Non-growing-season ecosystem respiration accounted for 51% of the annual ecosystem respiration and has increased significantly. The growing seasons (1st May to 30th September) were consistent CO 2 sink periods without significant changes over the study period. Observations revealed high-emission events from the end of the non-growing season to early in the growing season (1st March to fifteenth May), which significantly (p < 0.01) increased at a rate of 22.6 g C m -2 decade -1 , ranging from 14.6 ± 10.7 g C m -2 yr -1 in 2012 to 35.3 ± 12.1 g C m -2 yr -1 in 2017. Further, structural equation modeling suggested that active layer warming was the key factor in explaining changes in ecosystem respiration, leading to significant changes in net ecosystem exchange over the period 2011–2020 and indicated that these changes have already transformed the ecosystem from a CO 2 sink into a source. These results can be used to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to increased warming during the non-growing period.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Corrosive Influence of Carbon Dioxide on Crack Initiation in Quartz: Comparison With Liquid Water and Vacuum Environments

The stimulation of crack growth in quartz and siliceous materials by injecting carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) represents a key technology in long-term carbon storage and in the development of natural gas wells. While this technology is widely used, the molecular impact of CO 2 interactions on the solid matrix is only incompletely understood. In this work, we employ reactive molecular dynamics simulations to study how the CO 2 fluid environment affects the mechanical properties of pre-cracked single-crystal quartz. The thermodynamic conditions of interest are those relevant to subsurface reservoirs. We report how structural properties of quartz—bond length distribution and crack tip shape—evolve upon introduction of a fluid. These properties are directly related to macroscopic quantities of the global stress-strain curves, thus reaffirming the inherent coupling across multiple scales for fluid-solid interactions in the subsurface. Here, we find that CO 2 reduces the fracture toughness of quartz by 12.1% compared to that of quartz in vacuum, thereby promoting crack growth and enhancing fluid transport in the subsurface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Two California Cities Using Bayesian Inversion and Satellite Measurements

NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatories (OCO-2 and OCO-3) provide measurements of column-averaged carbon dioxide concentrations (XCO 2 ) with sufficient spatial resolution and precision to constrain bottom-up estimates of CO 2 fluxes at regional scales. We use Bayesian inversion methods assimilating satellite retrievals to improve estimates of CO 2 fluxes in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) which surrounds Los Angeles, and in the San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin (SFBA). We study 2020 to understand the impact of the COVID-19 lockdowns and an active wildfire season. Our results indicated that a 50% (30%) reduction in CO 2 emissions relative to 2015 during the COVID-19 lockdown period was consistent with OCO measurements for SFBA (SoCAB). We find that posterior wildfire emissions differed significantly from the prior at the scale of individual wildfires, though with large uncertainties, and that wildfire emissions in SFBA are significant, attributing 72% of the region's CO 2 emissions during August 2020 to wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗