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At least 253 records · Page 14

Time-series photometric spot modeling. 2: Fifteen years of photometry of the bright RS CVn binary HR 7275

We present a time-dependent spot modeling analysis of 15 consecutive years of V-band photometry of the long-period (P(sub orb) = 28.6 days) RS CVn binary HR 7275. This baseline in time is one of the longest, uninterrupted intervals a spotted star has been observed. The spot modeling analysis yields a total of 20 different spots throughout the time span of our observations. The distribution of the observed spot migration rates is consistent with solar-type differential rotation and suggests a lower limit of the differential-rotation coefficient of 0.022 +/-0.004. The observed, maximum lifetime of a single spot (or spot group) is 4.5 years, the minimum lifetime is approximately one year, but an average spot lives for 2.2 years. If we assume that the mechanical shear by differential rotation sets the upper limit to the spot lifetime, the observed maximum lifetime in turn sets an upper limit to the differential-rotation coefficient, namely 0.04 +/- 0.01. This would be differential rotation just 5 to 8 times less than the solar value and one of the strongest among active binaries. We found no conclusive evidence for the existence of a periodic phenomenon that could be attributed to a stellar magnetic cycle.

Strassmeier, K. G.↗

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in MIDDS

The goal of this task was to upgrade the severe weather database from the previous phase by adding weather observations from the years 2004 - 2009, re-analyze the data to determine the important parameters, make adjustments to the index weights depending on the analysis results, and update the MIDDS GUI. The added data increased the period of record from 15 to 21 years. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. Four of the stability indices showed increased severe weather predication. The Total Threat Score (TTS) of the previous work was verified for the warm season of 2009 with very good skill. The TTS Probability of Detection (POD) was 88% and the False alarm rate (FAR) of 8%. Based on the results of the analyses, the MIDDS Severe Weather Worksheet GUI was updated to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters and synoptic-scale dynamics.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗

K-Means Cluster Study for Radiofrequency Propagation Characterization

The objective of this study is to design a simple method for mining radio frequency (RF) propagation data. The study explored the characteristics of a large dataset of propagation experiments conducted over the span of years and using several ground stations around the world. Furthermore, this study developed simple predictive models that can be used for link characterization and overall propagation behavior description, without the need for physical measurements on-site. It is understood that such statistical learning has several drawbacks in terms of accuracy and precision. K-means clustering was used to characterize the data set in a way never explored before in an attempt to create useful tools that reduce cost, time and risk. K-means clustering was used to characterize the data set. Cosine distance was used as a method to determine the optimal number for clustering each feature. Dependence and independence analysis was performed to explore intra and inter-sensitivity between the presented features, with respect to each other and time. Several predicative models were generated and evaluated with respect to a test set to assess a measure of prediction accuracy and precision. A simple method for data analysis was developed and tested as the basis for further studies and future refinement to produce optimal performing models.

Cognitive↗

Infrared Transmission Spectroscopy of the Exoplanets HD 209458b and XO-1b Using the Wide Field Camera-3 on the Hubble Space Telescope

Exoplanetary transmission spectroscopy in the near-infrared using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) NICMOS (Near Infrared Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer) is currently ambiguous because different observational groups claim different results from the same data, depending on their analysis methodologies. Spatial scanning with HST/WFC3 (Wide Field Camera-3) provides an opportunity to resolve this ambiguity.We here report WFC3 spectroscopy of the giant planets HD 209458b and XO-1b in transit, using spatial scanning mode for maximum photon-collecting efficiency. We introduce an analysis technique that derives the exoplanetary transmission spectrum without the necessity of explicitly decorrelating instrumental effects, and achieves nearly photon-limited precision even at the high flux levels collected in spatial scan mode. Our errors are within 6 percent (XO-1) and 26 percent (HD 209458b) of the photon-limit at a resolving power of lambda divided by delta times lambda approximating 70, and are better than 0.01 percent per spectral channel. Both planets exhibit water absorption of approximately 200 ppm at the water peak near 1.38 m. Our result for XO-1b contradicts the much larger absorption derived from NICMOS spectroscopy. The weak water absorption we measure for HD209458b is reminiscent of the weakness of sodium absorption in the first transmission spectroscopy of an exoplanet atmosphere by Charbonneau et al. Model atmospheres having uniformly distributed extra opacity of 0.012 square centimeters per gram account approximately for both our water measurement and the sodium absorption. Our results for HD 209458b support the picture advocated by Pont et al. in which weak molecular absorptions are superposed on a transmission spectrum that is dominated by continuous opacity due to haze and or dust. However,the extra opacity needed for HD 209458b is grayer than for HD 189733b, with a weaker Rayleigh component.

planetary systems↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-29978-DND

Energy within an atmospheric column changes due to absorption of shortwave irradiance, emission of longwave irradiance, enthalpy released by precipitation, convergence of dry static and kinetic energy flux, and surface sensible heat flux. When satellite derived irradiance, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux data products, as well as tendency and horizontal advection of dry static and kinetic energy fluxes from reanalysis are used to compute the atmospheric energy balance, energy fluxes does not balance exactly, resulting in an energy balance residual. A study by Kato et al. (2016) shows that large residuals exist over tropical oceans. In this study, we examine how the energy balance residual changes with time. If the energy balance residual for a given region is constant every year, this implies that annual anomalies of energy flux components balance over the region. If, however, the energy balance residual changes with time, an analysis of the dependence on atmospheric or cloud properties may provide information to understand the reason for the residual. A preliminary result indicates that significant interannual variabilities in energy balance residual exist when annual energy balance residuals over the entire ocean is examined. Temporal variability of regional energy budget residual and covariability of the energy budget residual with the multivariate ENSO index and the occurrence of specific cloud types will further be investigated.

Seiji Kato↗

Dynamic mechanical analysis of polymeric materials

Polymeric materials exhibit mechanical behavior which is dependent on temperature. Dynamic mechanical analysis measures the mechanical damping and resonant frequency of a material over a temperature range. Values of the dynamic loss modulus, storage modulus, and loss tangent can be calculated from these data. The glass transition temperature and onset temperature are obtained from curves of the dynamic moduli versus temperature.

Kern, Kristen T.↗

On the Retrieval and Analysis of Multilevel Clouds

An accurate satellite retrieval of cloud properties depends upon the detection and analysis of multilayered, overlapping cloud systems that surface observations show to be common. Multiple cloud layers are often found, for instance, in frontal situations, where cirrus overlays boundary layer convective cloud or low-to mid-level stratus cloud. Surface observers (Hahan et al., 1982) indicate that over ocean in the Northern Hemisphere between 30 deg. N and 60 deg. N, 51 percent of observations are of multilevel clouds. A satellite analysis by Coakley (1983) over the Pacific Ocean finds that more than 50 percent of 500 (250 sq km) frames exhibit evidence of multilayered cloud systems. The questions addressed in this study are the following: What error is introduced when inferring the cloud pressure from a Field-Of-View (FOV) that contains some arbitrary amount of transparent cloud overlaying a lower-level black cloud, such as stratus, by making the assumption that there is only a single cloud layer in the FOV, and what may be done to improve the cloud retrieval? The CO2 slicing methods (e.g. McCleese and Wilson, 1976; Smith and Platt, 1978; Chahine, 1974) have been shown to provide accurate means of inferring cirrus cloud altitude from passive infrared radiance measurements. The CO2 techniques have been applied to radiometric data from several instruments, notably the High Resolution Infrared Radiometric Sounder (HIRS/2, hereafter referred to as HIRS), the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) (e.g., Menzel et al., 1983; Wylie and Menzel, 1989), and most recently to the High Resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) (Smith and Frey, 1990). The methods take advantage of the fact that infrared CO2 sounding channels spaced closely in wavenumber each have varying opacity to CO2, thereby causing each channel to be sensitive to a different level in the atmosphere. The techniques have been shown to be effective for single-layered, nonblack, mid- to high-level clouds such as cirrus, but are generally applied operationally to any given cloud occurrence. The CO2 slicing algorithms are most accurate for clouds than occur in a single, well-defined layer, or for multi-layered cloud cases in which the uppermost cloud layer is nearly black. Significant cloud height retrieval errors may ensue if the HIRS Field-Of-View (FOV) is cotaminated with low cloud. McCleese and Wilson (1976) have shown that the retrieved cloud height for the case of multiple cloud layers is a weighted average of the cloud heights actually present. The weight is approximately proportional to the product of the cloud heigt and the effective cloud amount. The effect of their result is that the uppermost cloud layer dominates the cloud pressure retrieval. Beyond stating that the higher cloud dominates the cloud pressure retrieval, there is no quantitative information to provide a way of estimating the errors in cloud pressure retrieval one should expect for certain common multilevel cloud situations or any suggestions on how to reduce the errors. In this paper we estimate the magnitude of the errors and use a simple algorithm to reduce the errors in optically thin cloud height retrival.

Baum, Bryan A.↗

Jet Noise Reduction by Microjets - A Parametric Study

The effect of injecting tiny secondary jets (microjets ) on the radiated noise from a subsonic primary jet is studied experimentally. The microjets are injected on to the primary jet near the nozzle exit with variable port geometry, working fluid and driving pressure. A clear noise reduction is observed that improves with increasing jet pressure. It is found that smaller diameter ports with higher driving pressure, but involving less thrust and mass fraction, can produce better noise reduction. A collection of data from the present as well as past experiments is examined in an attempt to correlate the noise reduction with the operating parameters. The results indicate that turbulent mixing noise reduction, as monitored by OASPL at a shallow angle, correlates with the ratio of jet to primary jet driving pressures normalized by the ratio of corresponding diameters (p d /pjD). With gaseous injection, the spectral amplitudes decrease at lower frequencies while an increase is noted at higher frequencies. It is apparent that this amplitude crossover is at least partly due to shock-associated noise from the underexpanded jets themselves. Such crossover is not seen with water injection since the flow in that case is incompressible and there is no shock-associated noise. Centerline velocity data show that larger noise reduction is accompanied by faster jet decay as well as significant reduction in turbulence intensities. While a physical understanding of the dependence of noise reduction on p d /pjD remains unclear, given this correlation, an analysis explains the observed dependence of the effect on various other parameters.

Zaman, K. B. M. Q.↗

Analysis of shell type structures subjected to time dependent mechanical and thermal loading

A general mathematical model and solution methodologies for analyzing structural response of thin, metallic shell-type structures under large transient, cyclic or static thermomechanical loads is considered. Among the system responses, which are associated with these load conditions, are thermal buckling, creep buckling and ratchetting. Thus, geometric as well as material-type nonlinearities (of high order) can be anticipated and must be considered in the development of the mathematical model.

Simitses, G. J.↗

Dynamic Creep Buckling: Analysis of Shell Structures Subjected to Time-dependent Mechanical and Thermal Loading

The objective of the present research is to develop a general mathematical model and solution methodologies for analyzing the structural response of thin, metallic shell structures under large transient, cyclic, or static thermomechanical loads. Among the system responses associated with these loads and conditions are thermal buckling, creep buckling, and ratcheting. Thus geometric and material nonlinearities (of high order) can be anticipated and must be considered in developing the mathematical model. A complete, true ab-initio rate theory of kinematics and kinetics for continuum and curved thin structures, without any restriction on the magnitude of the strains or the deformations, was formulated. The time dependence and large strain behavior are incorporated through the introduction of the time rates of metric and curvature in two coordinate systems: fixed (spatial) and convected (material). The relations between the time derivative and the covariant derivative (gradient) were developed for curved space and motion, so the velocity components supply the connection between the equations of motion and the time rates of change of the metric and curvature tensors.

Simitses, G. J.↗

Pathways of proton release in the bacteriorhodopsin photocycle

The pH dependencies of the rate constants in the photocycles of recombinant D96N and D115N/D96N bacteriorhodopsins were determined from time-resolved difference spectra between 70 ns and 420 ms after photoexcitation. The results were consistent with the model suggested earlier for proteins containing D96N substitution: BR hv----K----L----M1----M2----BR. Only the M2----M1 back-reaction was pH-dependent: its rate increased with increasing [H+] between pH 5 and 8. We conclude from quantitative analysis of this pH dependency that its reverse, the M1----M2 reaction, is linked to the release of a proton from a group with a pKa = 5.8. This suggests a model for wild-type bacteriorhodopsin in which at pH greater than 5.8 the transported proton is released on the extracellular side from this as yet unknown group and on the 100-microseconds time scale, but at pH less than 5.8, the proton release occurs from another residue and later in the photocycle most likely directly from D85 during the O----BR reaction. We postulate, on the other hand, that proton uptake on the cytoplasmic side will be by D96 and during the N----O reaction regardless of pH. The proton kinetics as measured with indicator dyes confirmed the unique prediction of this model: at pH greater than 6, proton release preceded proton uptake, but at pH less than 6, the release was delayed until after the uptake. The results indicated further that the overall M1----M2 reaction includes a second kinetic step in addition to proton release; this is probably the earlier postulated extracellular-to-cytoplasmic reorientation switch in the proton pump.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Towards Stability Analysis of Jump Linear Systems with State-Dependent and Stochastic Switching

This paper analyzes the stability of hierarchical jump linear systems where the supervisor is driven by a Markovian stochastic process and by the values of the supervised jump linear system s states. The stability framework for this class of systems is developed over infinite and finite time horizons. The framework is then used to derive sufficient stability conditions for a specific class of hybrid jump linear systems with performance supervision. New sufficient stochastic stability conditions for discrete-time jump linear systems are also presented.

Tejada, Arturo↗

Stresses and deformations in angle-ply composite tubes

The stress and deformations in angle-ply composite tubes subjected to axisymmetric thermal loading were investigated both experimentally and analytically. For the theoretical portion a generalized plane strain elasticity analysis was developed. The analysis included mechanical and thermal loading, and temperature-dependent material properties. The elasticity analysis was also used to study the effect of including a thin metallic coating on a graphite-epoxy tube. The stresses in the coatings were found to be quite high, exceeding the yield stress of aluminum. An important finding in the analytical studies was the fact that even tubes with a balanced-symmetric lamination sequence exhibit shear deformation, or twist. For the experimental portion an apparatus was developed to measure torsional and axial response in the temperature range of 140 to 360 K. Eighteen specimens were tested, combining three material systems, eight lamination sequences, and three off-axis ply orientation angles. For the twist response, agreement between analysis and experiment was found to be good. The axial response of the tubes tested was found to be greater than predicted by a factor of three. As a result, it is recommended that the thermally induced axial deformations be investigated, both experimentally and analytically.

Rousseau, Carl Q.↗

What Could Be Causing Global Ozone Depletion

The reported decline trend in global ozone between 1970 and 1986 may be in part an artifact of the analysis; the trend value appears to depend on the time interval selected for analysis--in relation to the 11-year solar cycle. If so, then the decline should diminish as one approaches solar maximum and includes data from 1987 to 1990. If the decline is real, its cause could be the result of natural and human factors other than just chlorofluorocarbons.

Singer, S. Fred↗

Time-dependent deformation of titanium metal matrix composites

A three-dimensional finite element program called VISCOPAC was developed and used to conduct a micromechanics analysis of titanium metal matrix composites. The VISCOPAC program uses a modified Eisenberg-Yen thermo-viscoplastic constitutive model to predict matrix behavior under thermomechanical fatigue loading. The analysis incorporated temperature-dependent elastic properties in the fiber and temperature-dependent viscoplastic properties in the matrix. The material model was described and the necessary material constants were determined experimentally. Fiber-matrix interfacial behavior was analyzed using a discrete fiber-matrix model. The thermal residual stresses due to the fabrication cycle were predicted with a failed interface, The failed interface resulted in lower thermal residual stresses in the matrix and fiber. Stresses due to a uniform transverse load were calculated at two temperatures, room temperature and an elevated temperature of 650 C. At both temperatures, a large stress concentration was calculated when the interface had failed. The results indicate the importance of accuracy accounting for fiber-matrix interface failure and the need for a micromechanics-based analytical technique to understand and predict the behavior of titanium metal matrix composites.

Bigelow, C. A.↗