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DOE OSTI2025

Electron polarimetry at EIC

The Electron-Ion Collider will be the first collider to use both polarized electron beams and polarized protons and light ions . This will offer unique opportunities to study the structure of protons and nuclei and answer fundamental questions in QCD. The uncertainties on the polarization measurement translate directly into the uncertainties of final physics observables. Hence, a precise measurement of the hadron beam polarization and a good control of the uncertainties are critical for the success of the spin program at the EIC. The requirements for beam polarimetry are non-destructive with uncertainty less than 1%. At the Electron Storage Ring (ESR) and the Rapid Cycling Synchrotron (RCS), the electron beam polarization will be measured using wellestablished Compton polarimetry techniques. However, the EIC Compton polarimeter will face unique challenges, demanding further developments. A Mott polarimeter will also be employed at the source for initial polarization measurements. Both longitudinal and transverse polarization will be measured, with the capability to monitor polarization on a bunch-by-bunch basis. Achieving these precise measurements will be critical to controlling systematic uncertainties and ensuring the overall success of the EIC’s physics objectives.

Zhang, Zhengqiao (ORCID:0009000742521735)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Learning-Based Demand Response in Grid Interactive Buildings via Gaussian Processes

This paper presents a predictive controller for a grid-interactive multi-zone building where the temperature dynamics are learned via Gaussian Process (GP) regression. We investigate the development of a learning-based predictive control with two main objectives: (i) continuously learn the temperature dynamics of the building based on data; and, (ii) use the learned dynamics to solve a multi-objective predictive control problem to guarantee occupants' comfort and energy efficiency during normal conditions and demand response events. We leverage the probabilistic non-parametric properties of GPs to estimate the (unknown) non-linear temperature dynamics of the building and to incorporate the uncertainty of those predictions in a multi-objective optimization problem. The GP-based predictive control is solved via a zero-order primal-dual projected-gradient algorithm. We evaluate numerically the performance of the proposed controller using a five-zone commercial building.

demand response↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demand Capacity Balancing at Vertiports for Urban Air Mobility

Demand Capacity Balancing (DCB) can be applied in strategic conflict management for safe Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. Even when the operational tempo is low, traffic demand can locally exceed the capacity at airspace resources like vertiports. This paper proposes a DCB algorithm to manage the UAM traffic demand strategically, given the capacity at vertiports. The DCB algorithm is evaluated with traffic scenarios at Dallas/Fort Worth urban area in terms of various metrics such as demand distribution changes, pre-departure delay, and the number of simultaneous operations in the air. With the same experiment setup, more extended studies are also conducted to investigate how the UAM flight scheduling based on the DCB algorithm is affected by various conditions that can occur in a practical UAM environment, including vertiport capacity changes, a slot size parameter in capacity constraint, differences in operational policy between operators like lead time for flight plan submission and cruise flight speed, and uncertainties in actual departure and arrival times.

Urban Air Mobility↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design, Fabrication, and Screening of Environmental‐Thermal Barrier Coatings Prepared by Ultrafast High‐Temperature Sintering

Abstract The demand for more efficient gas turbines relies heavily on the development of new environmental‐thermal barrier coatings (ETBCs). However, there is still uncertainty about which alloys and composites will be used for the next generation of turbine blades, as well as the most promising coating materials. Herein, an ETBCs development strategy is presented by integrating the coating design, synthesis, and screening using an ultrafast high temperature sintering (UHS) technique to accelerate coating improvements. The initial basis for composition selection is their thermal expansion mismatch with the substrate alloys; for which a temperature‐dependent coefficient of thermal expansion database is created. By combining tape casting method with the UHS technique a high‐throughput synthesis of single and multi‐layer coatings are realized with different compositions, layer stacking sequences, and layer thicknesses. To evaluate the coatings, thermal cycling tests from room temperature to 1300 °C are conducted. The approach enabled coatings on objects with complex geometries, multi‐layer ETBCs, and porosity tailoring by using staged UHS that runs with different temperatures and durations. The fast iteration strategy is more cost‐effective for the screening of ETBCs compared to conventional methods and greater throughput which can be further extended for rapid optimization of other materials systems.

Xie, Hua↗

DOE OSTI2022

Industrial battery operation and utilization in the presence of electrical load uncertainty using Bayesian decision theory

Behind the meter battery storage is becoming increasing popular in all sectors, though enthusiasm has recently lagged in the industrial sector. Even though there may be many factors contributing to this including lack of innovation, prohibitive costs, and undesirable rate structures, a difficulty arises in accounting for uncertainty of electrical load in industrial facilities while still attempting to utilize battery storage as much as possible all while trying to achieve fiscal profitability. Here this study utilizes Gaussian process regression and Bayesian decision theory to organize load data and quantify electrical load uncertainty to properly and effectively discharge industrial battery storage. The study employs a simulation model to set battery load setpoints for the span of the utility billing period according to the degree of risk aversion. This combination of economic analysis according to utility billing period and utilization of degree of risk aversion to make decisions on the uncertainty of the data has not before been applied to battery storage. The method resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand by 3.8 % at the lowest amount of savings and lowest risk aversion. The highest risk aversion resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand of 7.5 %. The maximum reduction of peak load in any month was 13.8 % in the month of December with a relatively high risk aversion. With a the highest amount risk aversion tested, the model reduced demand ten of the twelve months of the year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implications of AI and Data Center Service Demand on Energy, Water, and Economic Systems

This talk focuses on the challenges posed by the rapid growth of data centers (DCs), which rely heavily on electricity, water, land, and mineral resources, and have significant interactions with economic growth. The U.S. leads in DC deployment, but understanding how resource demands and constraints impact DC expansion requires strategic multisector analysis. To address this, the talk introduces a new conceptual framework and modeling capability within GCAM-USA, allowing integrated analysis of DC service demand, electricity, and direct and indirect water needs under varied scenarios. Insights include state-level water and electricity trends for DCs, uncertainty bounds, and the broader implications for resources and economics.

Data Centers↗

NASA NTRS1988

Mission design challenges posed by the Voyager 2 Neptune encounter

A major challenge for the Voyager 2 Neptune encounter lies in the detailed design of a trajectory that achieves science objectives at the planet as well as at its large satellite, Triton. This achievement demands a close flyby of the primary, whereas the planet's great distance makes such an undertaking especially challenging. Changing estimates and uncertainties of parameters characterizing the Neptune environment, particularly ring, atmosphere and radiation models, affect the mission design. These effects are investigated and trade-offs among candidate trajectories are examined with respect to spacecraft performance, avoidance of risk and science objective achievement.

Cesarone, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The Space Station Freedom evolution-phase - Crew-EVA demand for robotic substitution by task primitive

Space Station Freedom represents a significant demand for automation and robotics services as substitutes for crew EVAs. Results are reported from a study aimed at identifying the demand for crew EVA and the crew-task primitive distributions derived for input to future robotic substitution studies. Generic EVA tasks are developed from historical EVA mission timelines, and a set of 70 task primitives defined. The generic task activities are partitioned into task setup, kernel, and tear-down, with standardized task times and frequencies. These standardized times are coupled with inputs from numerous mission data bases in a probabilistic simulation to obtain estimates of total crew-EVA task time demand by crew task primitive. The use of probabilistic model is found to be crucial for understanding, isolating, and addressing the large uncertainties in the EVA task kernels.

Smith, Jeffrey H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-Party Flight Trajectory Negotiation for Upper Class E Traffic Management

A new operational concept has been proposed in Upper Class E airspace at or above 60,000 feet (Flight Level / FL600), which will allow operators of diverse vehicle characteristics to cooperatively manage and share their operational intents with neighboring operators to avoid conflict. There is a consensus in the community that negotiation for strategic deconfliction is needed, but there are no specific guidelines for how the negotiation should be conducted. There is a need for a structured and cooperative way to resolve the conflict between a wide variety of aircraft projected to be operating in Upper Class E for the negotiation to be carried out routinely. The use of negotiation models are a promising solution that can resolve conflict risks during flight in real-time while taking into account the uncertainty of future vehicle positions and dynamic business considerations. A two-party negotiation model has been researched, but as the traffic demand grows, there is a higher likelihood of conflict involving multiple aircraft that would require a method to handle multi-party conflict. This paper proposes a cooperative multi-party negotiation model inspired by game theory concepts for application to flight trajectory negotiation in Upper Class E traffic management. This model can be applied in flight with operators communicating directly after a potential conflict is detected. Some of the model’s benefits include allowing business costs to be private to operators, allowing operators to collaborate together to find conflict-free flight trajectories, and being compatible with different aircraft and operation types. This model provides a structured procedure for conflict resolution that can handle conflict involving multiple parties, assuming each operator is willing to take on a small cost to themselves in order to reduce the total cost to the group.

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Reinforcement Learning-MPC Approach for Distribution System Critical Load Restoration: Preprint

This paper proposes a hybrid control approach for distribution system critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while MPC models grid operations incorporating RL policy actions, i.e., the reserve requirement, renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. We formulate the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The RL algorithm is trained off-line using historical forecast of renewable generation and load demand. The method is tested using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine and battery. Case studies demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms other operating reserve determination methods.

distribution system↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.

Patel, Pralit L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) FAST Commissioning Prize Technical Analysis

The US energy landscape has undergone major changes over the past 10 years and will continue to see significant changes in future decades as the power grid increases its reliance on variable renewable energy resources. Because of the inherent variability of these resources, renewable energy growth may require additional energy storage capacity to provide flexible load-following capabilities and other grid services that can quickly adjust to changes in energy demand and generation. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH)—one such energy storage technology—uses pumps to convey water from a lower reservoir to an upper reservoir for energy storage and releases water back to the lower reservoir via a powerhouse for hydropower generation. PSH facility pump and generation cycling often follows economic and energy demand conditions. Across the United States, 43 PSH facilities are in operation and 55 projects are in various permitting or licensing stages. Altogether, the 43 operational projects provide the wide majority (95%) of utility-scale electricity storage in the United States. These facilities also provide significant power and nonpower grid benefits, including large-scale electrical system reserve capacity, grid reliability support, and electricity supply-demand balancing through quick-response capabilities and operational flexibility. PSH systems can accomplish these at a scale (e.g., size) and cost that makes these systems highly attractive from a technical standpoint. Although these research concepts are still in their infancy, they demonstrate promising potential as future PSH energy storage technologies. Although PSH has many advantages, development in the United States has effectively stalled since the 1990s, partially because of the magnitude of project costs and financing interest during development and construction, the length of time from project investment until project revenue begins, permitting challenges, construction risks, competition from other storage technologies (e.g., batteries, hydrogen storage), and electricity market evolution and uncertainty. In short, the time, cost, and risk associated with modern PSH development have resulted in limited growth in the United States recently, despite the growing energy storage demand stemming from increased wind and solar power deployment. Technology innovation is needed to help reduce PSH commissioning time, cost, and risk, particularly during the post-licensing phase of project development. To address challenges facing the PSH industry and to improve PSH commissioning timelines, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) initiated the PSH Furthering Advancements to Shorten Time to (FAST) Commissioning Prize project.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demand Capacity Balancing at Vertiports for Initial Strategic Conflict Management of Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility↗

DOE OSTI2020

Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries

The world is shifting to electric vehicles to mitigate climate change. Here, we quantify the future demand for key battery materials, considering potential electric vehicle fleet and battery chemistry developments as well as second-use and recycling of electric vehicle batteries. We find that in a lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide dominated battery scenario, demand is estimated to increase by factors of 18–20 for lithium, 17–19 for cobalt, 28–31 for nickel, and 15–20 for most other materials from 2020 to 2050, requiring a drastic expansion of lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply chains and likely additional resource discovery. However, uncertainties are large. Key factors are the development of the electric vehicles fleet and battery capacity requirements per vehicle. If other battery chemistries were used at large scale, e.g. lithium iron phosphate or novel lithium-sulphur or lithium-air batteries, the demand for cobalt and nickel would be substantially smaller. Closed-loop recycling plays a minor, but increasingly important role for reducing primary material demand until 2050, however, advances in recycling are necessary to economically recover battery-grade materials from end-of-life batteries. Second-use of electric vehicles batteries further delays recycling potentials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR (Hybird-Reinforcement-Learning-Model-Predictive-Control-for-Reserve-Policy-Assisted-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Distribution-Grids)

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR was developed as a hybrid controller for active distribution grid critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. The RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while the MPC models grid operations incorporating the RL policy actions (i.e., reserve requirements), renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. The developers formulated the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision-making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC simulation. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The software is developed using various software packages in Python. The MPC's optimal power flow (OPF) model is implemented using the Pyomo package, the RL simulation environment is implemented using the MPC simulation with various scenarios of renewable energy and load demand profiles and power outage beginning times, based on the OpenAI Gym framework. The RL agent training is performed using the RLlib Ray package. The RL algorithm is trained offline using historical forecasts of renewable generation and load demand profiles. Simulation analysis and performance tests are conducted using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine, and battery.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive learning-driven high-throughput synthesis of oxygen reduction reaction Fe–N–C electrocatalysts

Reducing human reliance on inefficient energy systems and fossil fuels has become more urgent due to the consequences of global climate change. However, traditional trial-and-error approaches have hampered our ability to accelerate the discovery and implementation of functional materials for efficient energy conversion devices, such as polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFCs). To address this, we develop an adaptive learning framework that integrates machine learning and state-of-the-art capabilities in high-throughput synthesis to achieve expedited optimization of iron-nitrogen-carbon PEFC oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysts. We use statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and global optimization to build a computational design-of-experiment tool that identifies the optimum compositions to be investigated next to reduce the demands placed on experimental materials discovery. We benchmark the ability of the proposed strategy to discover optimum catalyst synthesis conditions in a six-dimensional search space when starting with a thirty-six-sample database. By following the adaptive learning strategy, we synthesize fourteen new catalysts from approximately ten billion unique compositions and discover four catalysts that outperform all original samples. The best machine learning-optimized catalyst is 33% more active than the highest-performing one in the initial database, showing an ORR activity seven times larger than those typically reported for the same class of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Markov Models of Fault Growth Physics and Environmental Stresses to Optimize Control Actions

A generalized Markov chain representation of fault dynamics is presented for the case that available modeling of fault growth physics and future environmental stresses can be represented by two independent stochastic process models. A contrived but representatively challenging example will be presented and analyzed, in which uncertainty in the modeling of fault growth physics is represented by a uniformly distributed dice throwing process, and a discrete random walk is used to represent uncertain modeling of future exogenous loading demands to be placed on the system. A finite horizon dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve for an optimal control policy over a finite time window for the case that stochastic models representing physics of failure and future environmental stresses are known, and the states of both stochastic processes are observable by implemented control routines. The fundamental limitations of optimization performed in the presence of uncertain modeling information are examined by comparing the outcomes obtained from simulations of an optimizing control policy with the outcomes that would be achievable if all modeling uncertainties were removed from the system.

Bole, Brian↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilience in an Evolving Electrical Grid

Fundamental shifts in the structure and generation profile of electrical grids are occurring amidst increased demand for resilience. These two simultaneous trends create the need for new planning and operational practices for modern grids that account for the compounding uncertainties inherent in both resilience assessment and increasing contribution of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources. This work reviews the research work addressing the changing generation profile, state-of-the-art practices to address resilience, and research works at the intersection of these two topics in regards to electrical grids. The contribution of this work is to highlight the ongoing research in power system resilience and integration of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources in electrical grids, and to identify areas of current and further study at this intersection. Areas of research identified at this intersection include cyber-physical analysis of solar, wind, and distributed energy resources, microgrids, network evolution and observability, substation automation and self-healing, and probabilistic planning and operation methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗