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At least 253 records · Page 14

CrossCheck: Rapid, Reproducible, and Interpretable Model Evaluation

Evaluation beyond aggregate performance metrics, e.g. F1-score, is crucial to both establish an appropriate level of trust in machine learning models and identify future model improvements. In this paper we demonstrate CrossCheck, an interactive visualization tool for rapid crossmodel comparison and reproducible error analysis. We describe the tool and discuss design and implementation details. We then present three use cases (named entity recognition, reading comprehension, and clickbait detection) that show the benefits of using the tool for model evaluation. CrossCheck allows data scientists to make informed decisions to choose between multiple models, identify when the models are correct and for which examples, investigate whether the models are making the same mistakes as humans, evaluate models’ generalizability and highlight models’ limitations, strengths and weaknesses. Furthermore, CrossCheck is implemented as a Jupyter widget, which allows rapid and convenient integration into data scientists’ model development workflows.

Arendt, Dustin L.↗

2023 FORCE Development Status Update

Technical and economic analysis of integrated energy systems (IES) using software models is a complex process requiring multiple commodity market decision analysis, optimal control, process modeling, and stochastic analysis. Many assumptions used in traditional energy analysis tools do not hold in future energy markets with significant storage and variable renewable energy sources (VRE), let alone with multiple commodity markets. Capturing these intricate elements for accurate techno-economic analysis of IES led to the development of the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) tool suite under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Energy Systems crosscutting technology program. With the aim of a full framework release in 2025, many improvements to the FORCE tool suite were developed in fiscal year 2023 (FY23). These improvements broadly fit into three focuses for development of FORCE: capability, accessibility, and reliability. Capability refers to the ability of FORCE to accurately model the technical and economic viability of various IES. Accessibility refers to ease-of-use for new and existing IES analysts to efficiently set up, analyze, and produce results using FORCE. Reliability refers to the consistency of the software, allowing consistency to analysis regardless of erstwhile changes to the software. In addition to many smaller changes, there are three major capability improvements in FORCE in FY23. In summary, FORCE developments in FY23 have moved us close to all the capability requirements for FORCE 1.0 to be delivered in FY25. Inclusion of Bayesian optimization, resilience metrics, and levelized cost analysis expand the capability, accessibility, and reliability of FORCE.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimizing Batch Crystallization with Model-based Design of Experiments

Adaptive and self-optimizing intelligent systems such as digital twins are increasingly important in science and engineering. Digital twins utilize mathematical models to provide added precision to decision-making. However, physics-informed models are challenging to build, calibrate, and validate with existing data science methods. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) is a popular framework for optimizing data collection to maximize parameter precision in mathematical models and digital twins. In this work, we apply MBDoE, facilitated by the open-source package Pyomo.DoE, to train and validate mathematical models for batch crystallization. We quantitatively examined the estimability of the model parameters for experiments with different cooling rates. This analysis provides a quantitative explanation for the heuristic of using multiple experiments at different cooling rates.

Lynch, Hailey↗

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling the effect of habitat availability and quality on endangered winter-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) production in the Sacramento Valley

Reconciliation between water uses and sustaining aquatic species populations requires an effort to identify and quantify essential habitat characteristics for ecosystem health and valuation methods to predict ecosystem response to restoration actions. This process is particularly challenging for anadromous fish species such as California's Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon, due to their limited geographic range and diverse life history habitat requirements. Tools, such as life-cycle models, are needed to manage population dynamics and quantify the composite effects of processes across space and time. Nevertheless, complex institutions can hinder result interpretation and communication, and limit model use in decision-making. This paper focuses on the federally endangered and endemic Sacramento River winter-run Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by developing a Winter-Run Habitat-based Population Model (WRHAP). Additionally, WRHAP is a conceptual, freshwater rearing stage model that includes alternative rearing habitats reported in the literature (e.g., floodplains, off-channel and tributaries), defines rules of habitat use based on instream conditions, and incorporates a juvenile growth module that combines bioenergetics modeling with empirical growth rates. Model outputs reasonably follow observed out-migration patterns and provide a realistic smolt size distribution arriving at the San Francisco Bay. This effort demonstrates the importance of currently “non-critical” habitats (as defined by the Endangered Species Act) for juvenile development, with floodplain habitat contributing to a quarter of out-migrating biomass (despite < 18% availability and <10% of total rearing days), and off-channel growth being one of the most sensitive parameters (explaining ~13% of average juvenile weight variance). The model shows the utility of a simple population model to explore relationships between habitat quality/quantity and juvenile development, and to assist water/environmental management and decision-making processes focused on species recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic impact of electricity tariffs on distribution grids considering adoption of solar and storage technologies

This study models the role of electricity tariffs on the long-term adoption of photovoltaic and storage technologies as well as the consequent impact on the distribution grid. An adoption model that captures the economic rationality of tariff-driven investments and considers the stochastic nature of individual consumers’ decisions is proposed. This model is then combined with a probabilistic load flow to evaluate the long-term impacts of the adoption on the voltage profiles of the distribution grid. To illustrate the methodology, different components of the electricity tariffs, including solar compensation mechanisms and time differentiation of Time-of-Use (ToU) rates, are evaluated, using a case study involving a section of a medium-voltage network with 118 nodes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy Storage in Long-Term System Models: A Review of Considerations, Best Practices, and Research Needs

Technological change and policy support have heightened expectations for the role of energy storage in power systems, creating a need to enhance representations of energy storage in long-term models to inform decision-making. Energy storage technologies have complex and diverse cost, value, and performance characteristics that make them challenging to model, but there is limited guidance about best practices and research gaps for energy storage analysis. This paper reviews the literature and draws upon our collective experience to provide recommendations to analysts on approaches for representing energy storage in long-term electric sector models, navigating tradeoffs in model development, and identifying research gaps for existing tools and data. The review focuses on national-scale models with technological, temporal, and regional detail given their prevalence in planning and policy, though many insights are transferable to other modeling contexts. It also offers guidance to consumers of model outputs on proper use and interpretation based on model strengths and limitations. In particular, this review demonstrates the importance of capturing how the values of energy storage and other resources change as the system composition changes (e.g. with different levels of storage, renewables deployment, and emissions outcomes). These considerations require model detail like high spatiotemporal resolutions and endogenous investments that global integrated assessment models and price-taker frameworks do not typically resolve. Research gaps include linking tools of different resolutions, developing reduced-form representations of value streams, incorporating hybrid energy storage and renewable systems, and representing longer-duration energy storage technologies.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗

Utilizing waste heat in wastewater treatment plants for water desalination: Modeling and Multi-Objective optimization of a Multi-Effect desalination system using Decision Tree Regression and Pelican optimization algorithm

This paper examines the feasibility of using waste heat from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) for water desalination. A model was developed to utilize waste heat from the gensets at As Samra WWTP in Jordan, using real data and TRNSYS® software to calculate available waste heat. The desalination process was then modeled with ASPEN PLUS® software, focusing on multi-effect desalination (MED). Both series and parallel configurations for the MED system were compared. The study investigated the effects of system feeding flow rate, feeding pressure, and heat input on productivity, performance ratio, and recovery ratio. The study also introduces a novel optimization technique combining machine learning and modern optimization algorithms to maximize system productivity and performance. Initially, a decision tree regression (DTR) model is developed to establish relationships between key independent variables (flow rate, feed pressure, and heat input) and dependent variables (productivity, performance ratio, and recovery ratio). The Pelican Optimization Algorithm (POA) is then used to identify the optimal values of the independent variables for maximum productivity and performance. The results show that using a series configuration yields a system productivity of 3984.2 kg/hr, a performance ratio of 3.78, and a recovery ratio of 0.991 at a feed flow rate of 4000 kg/hr, feed pressure of 3 bars, and heat input of 719 kW. Optimal productivity (4421 kg/hr), performance ratio (3.81), and recovery ratio (0.851) are achieved at a feed flow rate of 5166 kg/hr, feed pressure of 3.2 bars, and heat input of 794 kW. In conclusion, the techno-economic assessment indicates a levelized cost of water of 1.63 USD/m 3 for parallel configurations and 1.65 USD/m 3 for series configurations, with a payback period of less than two years.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of Two-Step Method for Fast Chloride MSR Neutronics

This work presents neutronics models of a small and large fast-spectrum molten chloride-salt reactor. The models are similar to designs being pursued by industry, and they may serve as generic preconceptual and simplified neutronics models that provide information for decision making in licensing-related areas. Here, the two models were created using Serpent, a Monte Carlo neutron transport code, and Moltres, a neutron diffusion core simulator tool. Specifically, this study focused on exploring the applicability of diffusion theory to fast molten salt reactor (MSR) models, the capabilities of an open-source, MSR-oriented simulation tool (Moltres), and optimal energy-group structures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

SAM™ (System Advisor Model™) [SWR-16-02, SWR-10-13]

See the SAM™ website to build a desktop version of the National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR's) System Advisor Model™ (SAM). https://sam.nlr.gov/ The System Advisor Model™ (SAM™) is a free techno-economic software model that facilitates decision-making for people in the renewable energy industry: -Project managers and engineers -Policy analysts -Technology developers -Researchers SAM can model many types of renewable energy systems: -Photovoltaic systems, from small residential rooftop to large utility-scale systems -Battery storage with Lithium ion, lead acid, or flow batteries for front-of-meter or behind-the-meter applications -Concentrating Solar Power systems for electric power generation, including parabolic trough, power tower, and linear Fresnel -Industrial process heat from parabolic trough and linear Fresnel systems -Wind power, from individual turbines to large wind farms -Marine energy wave and tidal systems -Solar water heating -Fuel cells -Geothermal power generation -Biomass combustion for power generation -High concentration photovoltaic systems SAM's financial models are for the following types of projects: -Residential and commercial projects where the renewable energy system is on the customer side of the electric utility meter (behind the meter), and power from the system is used to reduce the customer's electricity bill. -Power purchase agreement (PPA) projects where the system is connected to the grid at an interconnection point, and the project earns revenue through power sales. The project may be owned and operated by a single owner or by a partnership involving a flip or leaseback arrangement. -Third party ownership where the system is installed on the customer's (host) property and owned by a separate entity (developer), and the host is compensated for power generated by the system through either a PPA or lease agreement. For a more detailed description of SAM, see Blair et al. (2018), System Advisor Model (SAM) General Description (Version 2017.9.5), NREL/TP-6A20-70414. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70414.pdf

Ryberg, David↗

Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau (FY 2020) (Rev. 2)

This document provides an updated Hanford Site composite analysis (CA). A Hanford Site CA was prepared and issued in 1998 (PNNL-11800) with an addendum provided in 2002 (PNNL-11800 Addendum 1). The CA was approved in 2002 (Frei, 2002) and has been maintained (DOE/RL-2000-29 and subsequent revisions) to support low-level waste disposal performance assessments (PAs) and disposal authorizations for facilities at the Hanford Site, including the following: Continued operation of the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) and the 200 East and 200 West Low-Level Burial Grounds; Construction of the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF); Forthcoming closure of tank residual waste systems such as Waste Management Area (WMA) C. The CA maintenance program resulted in a determination in 2015 (DOE/RL-2015-66) that the Hanford Site CA needed an update for the following reasons: While the initial Hanford Site CA has been maintained since 2001, the accumulation of basis changes reported in the annual summary reports over the succeeding 14 years merit evaluation in an updated analysis; The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Headquarters requested in a memorandum in 2015 (Gilbertson and Marcinowski, 2015) that “as soon as the relevant PAs are complete, the CA will be revised to account for all of the new information.” This updated Hanford Site CA accounts for the following new information: 1. Inclusion of a detailed Hanford Site baseline disposition that projects remedial activities through site closure. There have been significant changes through decision making in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) process that were not available when the original CA was produced; 2. Inclusion of an updated inventory basis, new modeling capabilities, and new decisions reached in the associated record of decision (ROD) that was provided by issuance of DOE/EIS-0391 in fiscal year (FY) 2013. Development of a Hanford Site groundwater model from the baseline provided in a technical transfer of models for the Final Tank Closure and Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0391) commenced in FY 2014 and resulted in the plateau-to-river (P2R) groundwater flow model that is used in this updated Hanford Site CA; 3. Accounting for pump and treat systems, which were not evaluated in the initial CA. Pump and treat systems have had significant impact on groundwater flow system behavior, contaminant transport, and contaminant removal from Hanford Site groundwater. This process is accounted for in the use of the P2R model for this updated Hanford Site CA; 4. Inclusion of water-level data collected since the initial CA was completed. Data collected as the unconfined aquifer water levels continue to recede since the cessation of large liquid discharges in the late 1990s have led to marked improvement in understanding of the flow system for future conditions, particularly regarding northward flow potential in the critical Gable Gap area. The calibration in the latest version of the P2R model accounts for this information; 5. Inclusion of results from the revised ERDF PA completed in 2013 (WCH-5209) that account for updated inventory and expansion of the ERDF facility to about twice the size that was evaluated in the original CA; 6. Use of updated geoframeworks to provide the structural basis for numerical fate and transport models in the groundwater pathway of this updated CA. The geologic basis for groundwater models has continued to improve with additional data collection and interpretation with the creation and maintenance of the Hanford South Geoframework and the Central Plateau Vadose Zone Geoframework tools; 7. Incorporation of updated tank residual inventory estimates. Tank residual inventory estimates have improved with the incorporation of tank retrieval inventory data for those tanks that have completed retrieval. The CA inventory data package includes this updated information; 8. Incorporation of WMA C PA results. Two additional PAs for tank farm closure decisions are in preparation during the period required to prepare an updated Hanford Site CA: WMA C (FY 2016) and WMA A-AX (in preparation). The WMA C PA results are incorporated into the updated Hanford Site CA, and its grouted residuals model is used as the basis for a release model to account for the other tank farm systems modeling in this updated CA; 9. An update to the IDF PA was submitted in FY 2017 and has been reviewed and approved. The results of the IDF PA are incorporated into this updated CA; 10. Updated risk assessment scenarios. The risk assessment scenarios currently in use for Hanford Site CERCLA and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) analyses differ from those evaluated in the initial Hanford Site CA. The representative person exposure scenario evaluated in this updated Hanford Site CA is consistent with recent PAs and CERCLA and RCRA analyses as the Hanford Site. This updated Hanford Site CA provides the following: A comparison of the updated Hanford Site CA all-pathway dose results with the performance measures during the compliance period, which is assumed to begin with site closure in calendar 2070 with the last scheduled disposal action and continue for 1,000 years postclosure (to calendar year 3069); A comparison of Hanford Site CA all-pathway dose results with the performance measures during the postcompliance period to address potential peaks beyond the compliance period. This is accomplished by evaluating dose in the period for 9,000 years following the compliance period (i.e., from calendar year 3070 to 12070).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

IDAES Enterprise: Generation Expansion Planning with Enhanced Requirements for Capacity Adequacy Under Renewable Intermittency

Achieving net zero carbon emissions likely requires future power systems to integrate new, flexible energy technologies to accommodate higher levels of capacity from variable renewable energy sources. To determine the optimal deployment of new electricity capacity and to study the likelihood of deployments of new energy technologies, an expansion planning model has been developed as part of the IDAES-Enterprise suite of grid models. The Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) model is a multi-period model in which investment decisions occur yearly, and a Unit Commitment (UC) problem is examined on an hourly timescale. To reduce computational complexity of the GEP model, the UC problem is solved for average “representative days” which leaves out extreme, but relatively common, scenarios in which low renewable generation occurs, leaving the system with inadequacy in capacity. The IDAES-Enterprise GEP model has been modified to include these extreme scenarios while keeping the model reasonably tractable. Specifically, a lazy constraint technique was implemented to check for capacity adequacy on an hourly basis over a large data set of aligned load-wind-solar profiles. As a vast majority of the capacity constraints will not be violated, the technique lowers computational expense by searching for violated capacity constraints over an “iterative manner,” adding those infeasible constraints back into the model. Results on a test case of the Southwest Power Pool shows that the lazy constraint technique significantly reduces retirements and increases installments of natural gas combined cycles and flexible natural gas units. It also reduces some retirements of coal units. These modifications provide a more reasonable estimation of required dispatchable power generation capacity to ensure feasibility during peak net load.

Liu, Peng↗

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗

Characterization of Plasma Protein Alterations in Pregnant and Postpartum Individuals Living With HIV to Support Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model Development

Alterations in plasma protein concentrations in pregnant and postpartum individuals can influence antiretroviral (ARV) pharmacokinetics. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can serve to inform drug dosing decisions in understudied populations. However, development of such models requires quantitative physiological information (e.g., changes in plasma protein concentration) from the population of interest. Objective: To quantitatively describe the time-course of albumin and α1-acid glycoprotein (AAG) concentrations in pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV. Serum and plasma protein concentrations procured from the International Maternal Pediatric Adolescent AIDS Clinical Trial Protocol 1026s (P1026s) were analyzed using a generalized additive modeling approach. Separate non-parametric smoothing splines were fit to albumin and AAG concentrations as functions of gestational age or postpartum duration. The analysis included 871 and 757 serum albumin concentrations collected from 380 pregnant (~20 to 42 wks gestation) and 354 postpartum (0 to 46 wks postpartum) women, respectively. Thirty-six and 32 plasma AAG concentrations from 31 pregnant (~24 to 38 wks gestation) and 30 postpartum women (~2–13 wks postpartum), respectively, were available for analysis. Estimated mean albumin concentrations remained stable from 20 wks gestation to term (33.4 to 34.3 g/L); whereas, concentrations rapidly increased postpartum until stabilizing at ~42.3 g/L 15 wk after delivery. Estimated AAG concentrations slightly decreased from 24 wks gestation to term (53.6 and 44.9 mg/dL) while postpartum levels were elevated at two wks after delivery (126.1 mg/dL) and subsequently declined thereafter. Computational functions were developed to quantitatively communicate study results in a form that can be readily utilized for PBPK model development. By characterizing the trajectory of plasma protein concentrations in pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV, our analysis can increase confidence in PBPK model predictions for HIV antiretrovirals and better inform drug dosing decisions in this understudied population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗