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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Rotor Performance at High Advance Ratio: Theory versus Test

Five analytical tools have been used to study rotor performance at high advance ratio. One is representative of autogyro rotor theory in 1934 and four are representative of helicopter rotor theory in 2008. The five theories are measured against three sets of well documented, full-scale, isolated rotor performance experiments. The major finding of this study is that the decades spent by many rotorcraft theoreticians to improve prediction of basic rotor aerodynamic performance has paid off. This payoff, illustrated by comparing the CAMRAD II comprehensive code and Wheatley & Bailey theory to H-34 test data, shows that rational rotor lift to drag ratios are now predictable. The 1934 theory predicted L/D ratios as high as 15. CAMRAD II predictions compared well with H-34 test data having L/D ratios more on the order of 7 to 9. However, the detailed examination of the selected codes compared to H-34 test data indicates that not one of the codes can predict to engineering accuracy above an advance ratio of 0.62 the control positions and shaft angle of attack required for a given lift. There is no full-scale rotor performance data available for advance ratios above 1.0 and extrapolation of currently available data to advance ratios on the order of 2.0 is unreasonable despite the needs of future rotorcraft. Therefore, it is recommended that an overly strong full-scale rotor blade set be obtained and tested in a suitable wind tunnel to at least an advance ratio of 2.5. A tail rotor from a Sikorsky CH-53 or other large single rotor helicopter should be adequate for this exploratory experiment.

Harris, Franklin D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Ablative TPS Modeling at NASA Ames

Over the past decade, NASA has invested in efforts to build predictive thermal protection system (TPS) material models from the micro-scale to the macro-scale. To complement the mission design cycle process and reduce the need for extensive testing, NASA is developing modeling and simulation tools that enable characterizing material properties and response to hot plasma experienced during atmospheric entry. Traditional material response and ablation modeling tools, such as the heritage code FIAT, and its multidimensional siblings, TITAN and 3dFIAT, are being complemented with newly developed software such as Icarus and PATO. Both of these programs are three-dimensional, finite-volume solvers that use unstructured meshes and 21st century programming paradigms to allow for efficient parallel simulations. FIAT and Icarus are also used for TPS sizing purposes. Today, these traditional tools are being supplemented with computational materials models at the atomistic level. The scales of interest range from computational chemistry (Density Functional Theory [DFT]), to atomistic simulations (Molecular Dynamics [MD]), to the microscale with the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software that was recently awarded the 2022 NASA Software of the Year award. Finally, thermo-structural modeling is also of interest to the TPS Materials branch and done using commercial tools such as MSC MARC, MENTAT, NASTRAN and PATRAN. The present talk will also link the use of these computational tools to current NASA missions and projects associated with challenging and complex vehicles entries/reentries.

materials modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development Strategies for Uncertainty Quantification to Enable Aircraft Certification by Analysis

Aircraft Certification by Analysis (CbA) is a broad term that describes the process by which engineering analysis tools are used to supplement flight testing to demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements. For each requirement that is to be met through this process, the analysis tools must be sufficiently accurate to ensure that an equivalent level of safety is obtained as if the aircraft to be certified had been flight tested for the requirement. In recent decades, the ability of analysis tools to accurately predict aircraft performance has improved dramatically, leading to increasing interest and limited early adoption of Certification by Analysis across the aerospace industry. However, rigorously demonstrating the credibility of analysis tools remains a challenge for many types of certification requirements, yet is necessary for widespread adoption of CbA approaches in the future. The field of uncertainty quantification is well-suited to address this problem, but will require substantial advances in order to achieve the ambitious industry goals for Certification by Analysis. The objective of this position paper is to highlight gaps in the current technical and programmatic state of uncertainty quantification. Four main categories – Mindset & Awareness, Tools & Capabilities, Data and Benchmarks for V&V, and Applied Research & Established Processes – will be introduced. Each of these categories contains several shortcomings and impediments which, if overcome, will enable more widespread possibilities for Certification by Analysis in the 2040-2050 timeframe.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-Throughput Strategies that Encompass Experiments and Machine Learning to Predict the Mechanical Properties of Additive Manufactured Aerospace Alloys

Small Punch Test (SPT) uses a thin disk of material to predict mechanical properties. While SPT has existed for decades, it has been used largely as a qualitative evaluator of mechanical properties. Recent advances in computational modeling have enabled the extraction of uniaxial stress-strain response from the measured SPT load-displacement data. Due to small sample volumes and unidirectional testing, SPT is conducive to high-throughput automation and ideally suited to extract properties from high-cost materials. Aerospace alloys have been of recent interest to the Additive Manufacturing (AM) community due to AM’s unique ability to fabricate complex designs not possible, or extremely arduous, with conventional manufacturing. In this research, SPT, coupled with Materials Informatics and computational modeling, is used to develop relevant Process-Structure-Property relationships to decrease the cost and time of process optimization for AM aerospace alloys, namely Inconel 718, Inconel 625, and Niobium C103.

High-throughput Testing↗
NASA NTRS2015

Monitoring Changes of Tropical Extreme Rainfall Events Using Differential Absorption Barometric Radar (DiBAR)

This work studies the potential of monitoring changes in tropical extreme rainfall events such as tropical storms from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band to remotely measure sea surface air pressure. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 5 millibars (approximately 1 millibar) under all weather conditions. With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts, analyses and understanding of these extreme events in both short and long time scales can be improved. Severe weathers, especially hurricanes, are listed as one of core areas that need improved observations and predictions in WCRP (World Climate Research Program) and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) and have major impacts on public safety and national security through disaster mitigation. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, our team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. Our feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. We have developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with our instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on tropical extreme rainfall weather and climate conditions.

Lin, Bing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Uncertainty in HPC Job Queue Time Predictions

High Performance Computing (HPC) has developed at an unprecedented pace in recent decades. This growth has demanded corresponding development in the area of HPC Operational Data Analytics (ODA), which encompasses a wide range of data analysis techniques, ML/AI efforts, tools, and visualizations. Published studies in ODA offer a variety of practical ways to inform HPC users, administrators, procurement managers, and other stakeholders. Uncertainty analysis, however, is rare in the related published literature. For instance, we identify only 1 out of 14 existing studies focused on job queue time prediction that investigates the uncertainty aspect of their proposed predictions. We recognize the utmost importance uncertainty quantification can have in such predictive analytics solutions, with consequences in how users interpret information they receive, and attempt to bridge this gap. With the goal of improving access to such insights, we develop a process for determining upper and lower bounds of the predicted queue times of a regression model at a specified confidence level. Our current research is focused on the uncertainty in predicting job queue times, yet our approach may be employed in predicting other metrics.

HPC↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

terrain↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decadal Variability of Southeast US Rainfall in an Eddying Global Coupled Model

Abstract Ocean variability is a dominant source of remote rainfall predictability, but in many cases the physical mechanisms driving this predictability are not fully understood. This study examines how ocean mesoscales (i.e., the Gulf Stream SST front) affect decadal Southeast US (SEUS) rainfall, arguing that the local imprint of large‐scale teleconnections is sensitive to resolved mesoscale features. Based on global coupled model experiments with eddying and eddy‐parameterizing ocean, we find that a resolved Gulf Stream improves localized rainfall and remote circulation response in the SEUS. The eddying model generally improves the air‐sea interactions in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Subtropical High that modulate SEUS rainfall over decadal timescales. The eddy‐parameterizing simulation fails to capture the sharp SST gradient associated with the Gulf Stream and overestimates the role of tropical Pacific SST anomalies in the SEUS rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Statistician’s Overview of Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Data

The recent success of deep neural network models with physical constraints (so-called, Physics-Informed Neural Networks, PINNs) has led to renewed interest in the incorporation of mechanistic information in predictive models. Statisticians and others have long been interested in this problem, which has led to several practical and innovative solutions dating back decades. In this overview, we focus on the problem of data-driven prediction and inference of dynamic spatio-temporal processes that include mechanistic information, such as would be available from partial differential equations, with a strong focus on the quantification of uncertainty associated with data, process, and parameters. Here, we give a brief review of several paradigms and focus our attention on Bayesian implementations given they naturally accommodate uncertainty quantification. We then show that it is straight-forward to include the Bayesian PINN (B-PINN) within the Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) framework that has long been considered for modeling dynamic spatio-temporal processes. Such a BHM-PINN is illustrated via a simulation study in which a latent nonlinear Burgers’ equation PDE governs the dynamics of Poisson distributed spatio-temporal data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Bayesian↗
NASA NTRS2022

Building Space Weather Literacy Through Sustained Engagement

Space weather affects all space systems, both natural and artificial. There is a rapid growth of awareness in past decades of this reality and a critical need for space weather prediction due to technology advances. Above all, space weather science and its history are outstanding vehicles for teaching science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) topics. As a white paper group, we recommend that the Decadal Survey builds space weather literacy within K–14 classrooms and the general public, covering all areas of studies in Heliophysics through sustained engagement beyond celestial and spacecraft events.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS1992

A comparative study between experimental results and numerical predictions of multi-wall structural response to hypervelocity impact

Over the last three decades, multiwall structures have been analyzed extensively, primarily through experiment, as a means of increasing the protection afforded to spacecraft structure. However, as structural configurations become more varied, the number of tests required to characterize their response increases dramatically. As an alternative, numerical modeling of high-speed impact phenomena is often being used to predict the response of a variety of structural systems under impact loading conditions. This paper presents the results of a preliminary numerical/experimental investigation of the hypervelocity impact response of multiwall structures. The results of experimental high-speed impact tests are compared against the predictions of the HULL hydrodynamic computer code. It is shown that the hypervelocity impact response characteristics of a specific system cannot be accurately predicted from a limited number of HULL code impact simulations. However, if a wide range of impact loadings conditions are considered, then the ballistic limit curve of the system based on the entire series of numerical simulations can be used as a relatively accurate indication of actual system response.

Schonberg, William P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s

Diagnosing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability within operational forecast models is hindered by computational expense and the need for initialization with three-dimensional fields generated by global data assimilation. We instead examine multi-year ENSO predictability since the late 1800s using the model-analog technique, which has neither limitation. We first draw global coupled model states from pre-industrial control simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, that are chosen to initially match observed monthly sea surface temperature and height anomalies in the Tropics. Their subsequent 36-month model evolution are the hindcasts, whose 20th century ENSO skill is comparable to twice-yearly hindcasts generated by a state-of-the-art European operational forecasting system. Despite the so-called spring predictability barrier, present throughout the record, there is substantial second-year ENSO skill, especially after 1960. Overall, ENSO exhibited notably high values of both amplitude and skill towards the end of the 19th century, and again in recent decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Remote Atmospheric Responses to Decadal Kuroshio Stability Transitions

Based on observational estimates and global ocean eddy-resolving coupled retrospective initialized predictions, we show that Kuroshio Extension variability affects rainfall variability along the west coast of North America. We show that the teleconnection between the current undulations and downstream rainfall can lead to improved subseasonal to seasonal predictions of precipitation over California, and we demonstrate that capturing these teleconnections requires coupled systems with sufficient ocean resolution (i.e., eddy-resolving), especially over time scales longer than one season. The improved forecast skill is diagnosed in terms of 35 years of retrospective initialized ensemble forecasts with an ocean eddy-resolving and an ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model. Not only does the ocean eddy-resolving model show sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability in terms of western North America precipitation, but the ocean eddy-resolving forecasts also show improved forecast skill compared to the ocean eddy-parameterized model. Additionally, the ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model shows no sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability. We also find near-decadal variability associated with a progression of a lower-tropospheric height dipole around the North Pacific and how these height anomalies lead to wind-driven Rossby waves that affect the eddy activity in the Kuroshio Extension with a time lag on the order of four years. This decadal-scale variability (~10 years) opens the possibility of multiyear predictability of western North American rainfall.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital Twinning and Predictive Modeling of Traffic for Safe, Efficient, and Reliable Intersections

Over the last decade, the advances in connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) have far surpassed the technological realm of transportation infrastructure. There is a growing need to have a technologically commensurate transportation infrastructure to enable safe and reliable movement of goods and people. The recent creation of Advanced Research Projects Agency - Infrastructure (ARPA-I) through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) has further amplified the need to revolutionize the transportation infrastructure system in the US. This need is perhaps felt most at traffic intersections, as more than 50 percent of the combined total of fatal and injury crashes occur at or near intersections. The proposed concept of Infrastructure Perception and Control (IPC) is aimed at bridging this technological gap by building a real-time digital twin of traffic by fusing detections from sensors installed at the intersection. This digital twin can then empower a wide variety of applications such as smart traffic signals or infrastructure-to-everything (I2X) communications. Smart signaling can help avoid crashes through early-prediction, while I2X can augment the CAV sensors under uncertain driving conditions and provide connected vehicles (CVs) with traffic information they can use to optimize their travel.

connected vehicles↗
DOE OSTI2023

Polarized fusion and potential in situ tests of fuel polarization survival in a tokamak plasma

Abstract The use of spin-polarized fusion fuels would provide a significant boost towards the ignition of a burning plasma. The cross section for D + T → α + n, would be increased by 1.5 if the fuels were injected with parallel polarization. Furthermore, our simulations demonstrate additional non-linear power gains in large-scale machines such as ITER, due to increased alpha heating. Such benefits require the survival of spin polarizations for periods comparable to the particle confinement time. During the 1980s, calculations predicted that polarizations could survive a plasma environment, although concerns persisted regarding the cumulative impacts of wall recycling. In that era, technical challenges prevented direct tests and left the large scale fueling of a power reactor beyond reach. Over the last decades, this situation has changed dramatically. Detailed simulations of ITER have predicted negligible wall recycling in a high-power reactor, and recent advances in laser-driven sources project the capability of producing large quantities of ∼100% polarized D and T. The remaining crucial step is an in-situ demonstration of polarization survival in a plasma. For this, we outline a measurement strategy using the isospin-mirror reaction, D + 3 He → α + p. Polarized 3 He avoids the complexities of handling tritium, while encompassing the same spin-physics. We evaluate two methods of delivering deuterium, using dynamically polarized Lithium-Deuteride (with vector polarization P V D of 70%) or frozen-spin Hydrogen-Deuteride (with P V D of 40%), together with a method of injecting optically-pumped 3 He (with 65% polarization). Pellets of these materials all have long polarization decay times (∼6 min for LiD at 2 K, ∼2 months for HD at 2 K, and ∼3 d for 3 He at 77 K), all far greater than a plasma shot in a research tokamak such as DIII-D (∼20 s). Both species can be propelled from a single cryogenic injection gun. We review plasma requirements and strategies for detecting polarization survival. Polarization alters both fusion yields and the angular distribution of fusion products, and each of these provides a potential signal. In this paper we simulate a selection of shots with similar characteristics in a future high-T ion H plasma, and find ratios of yields from shots with fuel spins parallel and antiparallel reaching 1.3 (HD + 3 He) to 1.6 (LiD + 3 He) over a wide range of poloidal angles. (A companion paper finds sensitivity to fusion product angular distributions as reflected in the pitch angles of protons and alphas reaching the plasma facing wall.)

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards a robust out-of-the-box neural network model for genomic data

The accurate prediction of biological features from genomic data is paramount for precision medicine and sustainable agriculture. For decades, neural network models have been widely popular in fields like computer vision, astrophysics and targeted marketing given their prediction accuracy and their robust performance under big data settings. Yet neural network models have not made a successful transition into the medical and biological world due to the ubiquitous characteristics of biological data such as modest sample sizes, sparsity, and extreme heterogeneity. Here, we investigate the robustness, generalization potential and prediction accuracy of widely used convolutional neural network and natural language processing models with a variety of heterogeneous genomic datasets. Mainly, recurrent neural network models outperform convolutional neural network models in terms of prediction accuracy, overfitting and transferability across the datasets under study. While the perspective of a robust out-of-the-box neural network model is out of reach, we identify certain model characteristics that translate well across datasets and could serve as a baseline model for translational researchers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗