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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Innovations improve technology costs through various kinds of engineering advancements, including changes to materials choices and device or process designs. Understanding how these innovations relate to cost change can reveal aspects of the process of technology evolution, yet developing such understanding is often not possible with a strictly quantitative approach due to data limitations. In this paper we develop a hybrid quantitative-qualitative framework for relating specific innovations to cost change by using the variables in a quantitative technology cost change model as an organizing principle. We demonstrate this framework by applying it to the cost decline in photovoltaic (PV) systems over the last five decades. This framework generates new understanding of a set of innovations that contributed to PV modules’ sustained cost decline and the more modest trends observed in balance-of-system (BOS) costs. The results show the great diversity of innovations that affected PV costs, drawing on wide-ranging fields of expertise within scientific research and practice. We find that there are differences in the characteristics of innovations that reduced the cost of PV modules compared to innovations influencing BOS costs. Numerous module innovations reduced costs by advancing manufacturing tools and processes that improved material quality. Many BOS innovations reduced costs through a combination of component design changes, integration, automation, digitalization, and standardization. Overall, most innovations in our sample affected PV hardware. However, some also target ‘soft technologies’ such as task durations through innovations like fast-track permitting, which require improved collaboration and process streamlining. This framework also provides insight into the nature of knowledge spillovers between technologies. Both module and BOS hardware innovations show the benefits of PV’s position within an ‘ecosystem’ of continuously advancing technologies in many industries, in particular semiconductors and electronics, and also point to the importance of public institutions for accelerating testing, permitting, and training.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heat transfer and visual observation of pool boiling of next-generation low-pressure refrigerant: R1336mzz(Z)

R1336mzz(Z) is a non-flammable and non-toxic hydrofluoroolefin (HFO), which is a potential alternative working fluid for multiple applications such as centrifugal chillers, industrial high temperature heat pumps, and Organic Rankine Cycles. Pool boiling is one of the primary heat transfer modes in shell-and-tube evaporators, and there is limited data for R1336mzz(Z) due to its recent introduction. This study investigated the pool boiling characteristics of R1336mzz(Z) using a closed-loop apparatus. Heat transfer coefficients on a smooth aluminum surface were measured at various heat fluxes with a heating block, and the results were compared to predictions from various correlations. Additionally, a high-speed camera was employed to visualize and analyze the pool boiling behavior of this next-generation low-pressure refrigerant.

Yang, Cheng-Min [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2020

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 4: Risk to Marine Animals from Underwater Noise Generated by Marine Renewable Energy Devices

In all ocean environments, desirable locations for wave and tidal energy development have multiple natural sources of sound (e.g., waves, wind, and sediment transport), varying levels of anthropogenic and biological noise, and measurement quality challenges (e.g., flow-noise, self-noise). Many marine animals rely on sound for biological functions, including communication, social interaction, orientation, foraging, and evasion. The extent to which marine animals detect and produce sound varies by frequency (spanning roughly four decades from 10 Hz to 100 kHz) and is taxa-specific. Because of the relatively limited data available, hearing sensitivity is often generalized to taxonomic groups (e.g., cetaceans that have low-frequency hearing specialization). https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-4-underwater-noise

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Industry Partnerships & Their Role In Reducing Natural Gas Supply Chain Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Phase 2

This analysis is the product of collaboration between Our Nation’s Energy Future (ONE Future) and the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). This analysis is an update to Phase 1 of the collaboration between ONE Future and NETL. Phase 1 had three objectives: 1. Calculate a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission profile representative of ONE Future’s supply chain, including methane (CH 4 ) emission rates. 2. Compare ONE Future’s emission profile to the emission profile for the U.S. natural gas supply chain. 3. Evaluate specific emission reduction opportunities. Phase 2 has two key enhancements over Phase 1: 1. The reporting year of the data is updated from 2016 to 2017. 2. The emission profiles and the specific emission reduction opportunities are regionalized for the ONE Future supply chain. The ONE Future supply chain is based on data provided by ONE Future members for all their U.S. onshore assets. ONE Future’s data are mostly representative of their participation in the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) administered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and is supplemented by ONE Future facilities that are not required to report to GHGRP. The U.S. scenario is based on NETL’s life cycle analysis (LCA) of natural gas extraction and power generation, which also uses data from the GHGRP (but does not include non-GHGRP facilities). In addition to the data from these sources, NETL accounted for uncertainty due to data variability, data limitations, and variability in liquids unloading frequency and event duration. This report is a re-issue of the 2020 study (published on July 28, 2020). It revises the device count in the mitigation strategy “pipeline pump-down before maintenance” in the Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) Analysis section of the report (Section 7). Please see the addendum for more details on this revision and resultant changes. This revision does not change most of our conclusions and recommendations. It only changes the total methane reduced from all the mitigation opportunities (low cost and high cost) from 6.5 Bcf CH 4 /yr to 4.8 Bcf CH 4 /yr.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advancing the science of explosive fragmentation and afterburn fireballs though experiments and simulations at the benchtop scale

Detonation of explosive devices produces extremely hazardous fragments and hot, luminous fireballs. Prior experimental investigations of these post-detonation environments have primarily considered devices containing hundreds of grams of explosives. While relevant to many applications, such large- scale testing also significantly restricts experimental diagnostics and provides limited data for model validation. As an alternative, the current work proposes experiments and simulations of the fragmentation and fireballs from commercial detonators with less than a gram of high explosive. As demonstrated here, reduced experimental hazards and increased optical access significantly expand the viability of advanced imaging and laser diagnostics. Notable developments include the first known validation of MHz-rate optical fragment tracking and the first ever Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Scattering (CARS) measures of post-detonation fireball temperatures. While certainly not replacing the need for full-scale verification testing, this work demonstrates new opportunities to accelerate developments of diagnostics and predictive models of post-detonation environments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model Package Report: Central Plateau Vadose Zone Models

This model package report describes concisely the modeling objectives, conceptualization, implementation, uncertainty and sensitivity, configuration control, limitations, data needs, and recommendations for improvement of the Central Plateau Vadose Zone Models. This collection of models is developed to meet the vadose zone simulation needs of the Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA), the Hanford Site Cumulative Impact Evaluation (CIE), and are expected to find other applications in Hanford Site remedial cleanup decision-making processes. This model package report describes and documents the development of the models themselves to fulfill technical approaches defined for the CA and the CIE. This report does not document any specific calculation using these models: instead, applications of individual vadose models to perform specific calculations will be documented in environmental calculation files, including inputs and results, as appropriate. Configuration management for the Central Plateau Vadose Zone Models is managed through assignment of unique sequential numerical version numbers and archival of the models in the Environmental Modeling Management Archive.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fundamental Understanding of Methane-Carbon Dioxide-Water (CH 4 -CO 2 - H 2 O) Interactions in Shale Nanopores under Reservoir Conditions (Quarterly Report)

Shale is characterized by the predominant presence of nanometer-scale (1-100 nm) pores. The behavior of fluids in those pores directly controls shale gas storage and release in shale matrix and ultimately the wellbore production in unconventional reservoirs. Recently, it has been recognized that a fluid confined in nanopores can behave dramatically differently from the corresponding bulk phase due to nanopore confinement. CO 2 and H 2 O, either preexisting or introduced, are two major components that coexist with shale gas (predominately CH 4 ) during hydrofracturing and gas extraction. Note that liquid or supercritical CO 2 has been suggested as an alternative fluid for subsurface fracturing such that CO 2 enhanced gas recovery can also serve as a CO 2 sequestration process. Limited data indicate that CO 2 may preferentially adsorb in nanopores (particularly those in kerogen) and therefore displace CH 4 in shale. Similarly, the presence of water moisture seems able to displace or trap CH 4 in shale matrix. Therefore, fundamental understanding of CH 4 -CO 2 -H 2 O behavior and their interactions in shale nanopores is of great importance for gas production and the related CO 2 sequestration. This project focuses on the systematic study of CH 4 -CO 2 -H 2 O interactions in shale nanopores under high-pressure and high temperature reservoir conditions. The proposed work will help develop new stimulation strategies to enable efficient resource recovery from fewer and less environmentally impactful wells.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fracture Toughness Characterization of Generation II FeCrAl Alloys after ~18 dpa Irradiation

FeCrAl alloys are promising candidate materials for the accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding applications due to their excellent corrosion resistance to the elevated temperature steam environment. Currently, the handbook on FeCrAl material properties contains only limited data regarding the fracture toughness properties of any FeCrAl alloy. This includes alloys currently under investigation within the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). In this project, a series of irradiation capsules have been irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at ORNL with two Generation II FeCrAl candidate alloys, i.e., C06M and C36M, to assess the fracture response of these alloys after neutron irradiation. These alloys represent the “book-end” compositions for C26M, the alloy currently being developed as the leading candidate for LWR cladding. A total of six irradiation capsules were irradiated in HFIR at target temperatures of 200°C, 330°C, and 500°C up to target damage doses of 8 displacements per atom (dpa) and 16 dpa. These damage doses represent the expected middle and end of life damage levels for typical LWR cladding while the irradiation temperature regimes will provide insight into the role of varying microstructural features on the fracture toughness properties of neutron irradiated FeCrAl alloys. To date, irradiation of all capsules has been completed in HFIR. This report summarizes the latest results of microhardness and fracture toughness PIE for the 16 dpa capsules (FCAB2, FCAB4, and FCAB6), for which the measured irradiation conditions were: 204°C/17.6dpa, 343°C/18.3dpa, and 507°C/18.6dpa. The main conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows: 1) After the 204°C/17.6dpa irradiation, both C06M and C36M exhibited significant irradiation hardening and embrittlement 2) After the 343°C/18.3dpa irradiation, both C06M and C36M exhibited small irradiation hardening without irradiation embrittlement 3) After the 507°C/18.6dpa irradiation, both C06M and C36M exhibited irradiation softening without irradiation embrittlement 4) Comparing the microhardness and Master Curve reference temperature T 0q before and after neutron irradiation, we did not observe a linear correlation between the two parameters for both C06M and C36M. This should be mainly due to a flat response of the Master Curve reference temperature T 0q to the irradiations at 166-204°C and 315-343°C ranges 5) C06M showed a lower T 0q , meaning better toughness, than C36M at the unirradiated condition and such trend was kept even after neutron irradiation except for the 166-204°C irradiation where both materials had similar T 0q . 6) In terms of hardening and embrittlement, the irradiation effect on both C06M and C36M appeared to saturate after an irradiation dose of 7 dpa.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

CIS Project 22359, Final Technical Report. Discretized Posterior Approximation in High Dimensions

Our primary aim in this work is to understand how to efficiently obtain reliable uncertainty quantification in automatic learning algorithms with limited training datasets. Standard approaches rely on cross-validation to tune hyper parameters. Unfortunately, when our datasets are too small, holdout datasets become unreliable—albeit unbiased—measures of prediction quality due to the lack of adequate sample size. We should not place confidence in holdout estimators under conditions wherein the sample variance is both large and unknown. More poigniantly, our training experiments on limited data (Duersch and Catanach, 2021) show that even if we could improve estimator quality under these conditions, the typical training trajectory may never even encounter generalizable models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential Infrastructure Cost Savings at Hybrid Wind Plus Solar PV Plants

This report documents the creation of NREL's Balance of System model for Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HybridBOSSE). Balance of System (BOS) costs account for approximately 30% of the capital expenditure required to install a land-based wind plant, and as much as 40% of the cost of installing a solar PV plant. Hybrid Renewable Energy systems present an opportunity to combine balance of system components to achieve cost savings, and HybridBOSSE aims to provide a component-level model to determine the associated BOS costs in a hybrid renewable energy system. Prior BOS models for hybrid systems (at NREL and elsewhere) have relied on empirical curve fits of legacy industry data, limiting their utility and their predictive ability for new technology combinations and configurations, such as those found in Hybrid Plants. Hybrid plants at the utility scale have considerably more interest in the last number of years, with ever-growing capacities in the interconnection queues, and many large developers pivoting to only consider hybrid plants going forward. As these plants become a commercial reality, the need for a detailed analysis of costs in a hybrid plant to fully exploit the available cost savings grows. The tool developed and documented in this work, HybridBOSSE, provides an open-source, python-based method of assessing the costs in hybrid plants. This analysis capability unlocks greater certainty in hybrid plant costs, as well as the ability to examine scenarios of hybridization and glean combinations that offer the greatest flexibility and cost reduction.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Origin of the Hadron Mass within the Standard Model

Understanding the origin of the hadron mass, which constitutes 99% of our visible universe, is one of the central goals of nuclear physics. Although the Higgs mechanism provides mass for the fundamental building blocks of matter, it can only contribute less than 2% of the proton mass. The vast majority of the proton mass is believed to come from the strong force that tightly binds quarks and gluons (collectively called partons) together as described by Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). The mass that emerges as a consequence of the strong interactions within QCD is commonly denoted as Emergent Hadronic Mass (EHM). Understanding how the nucleon mass emerges in QCD is a prerequisite to an explanation of how the Universe came into being, therefore it is of utmost importance and one of the key questions to be addressed by the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). When it comes to light mesons, particularly pions, the mass decomposition is drastically different. Since the pion is naturally massless in the chiral limit, the majority of its observed mass needs to come from other mechanisms within QCD. Any successful explanation for the EHM needs to be able to reconcile both the heavy proton mass and the very light pion mass (~15% of proton mass) simultaneously. The EHM theories have direct measurable implications on the description of the internal structure of the hadron, i.e., how the partons distribute inside the hadron. Precise measurement of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) will provide necessary experimental verifications and constraints of potential EHM mechanisms. We propose to carry out a comprehensive study of the poorly known pion PDFs at the AMBER experiment at CERN. The measurement will provide vital input to constrain the global analysis of the pion PDFs, which are still based on limited data obtained more than 30 years ago. The proposed pion measurement is the only direct measurement achievable within this decade, which could lead to a future major meson structure program parallel to the EIC’s proton structure measurement.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distances to Prompt Effects for a Nuclear Device

In 2010, nuclear weapon effects experts at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) were asked to provide a quick reference document containing estimated prompt nuclear effects. This report is an update to the 2010 document that includes updated model assumptions. This report addresses only the prompt effects associated with a nuclear detonation (e.g., blast, thermal fluence, and prompt ionizing radiation). The potential medium- and longer-term health effects associated with nuclear fallout are not considered in this report because, in part, of the impracticality of making generic estimates given the high dependency of fallout predictions on the local meteorological conditions at the time of the event. The results included in this report also do not consider the urban environment (e.g., shielding by or collapse of structures) which may affect the extent of prompt effects. It is important to note that any operational recommendations made using the estimates in this report are limited by the generic assumptions considered in the analysis and should not replace analyses made for a specific scenario/device. Furthermore, nuclear effects experts (John Hogan, SNL, and Byron Ristvet, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)) have indicated that the accuracy of effects predictions below 0.5 kilotons (kT) or 500 tons nuclear yield have greater uncertainty because of the limited data available for the prompt effects in this regime. The Specialized Hazard Assessment Response Capability (SHARC) effects prediction tool was used for these analyses. Specifically, the NUKE model within SHARC 2021 Version 10.2 was used. NUKE models only the prompt effects following a nuclear detonation. The algorithms for predicting range-to-output data contained within the NUKE model are primarily based on nuclear test effects data. Probits have been derived from nuclear test data and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protective action guides. Probits relate the probability of a hazard (e.g., fatality or injury) caused by a given insult (e.g., overpressure, thermal fluence, dose level). Several probits have been built into SHARC to determine the fatality and injury associated with a given level of insult. Some of these probits differ with varying yield. Such probits were used to develop the tables and plots in this report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Analysis of PINNs for Power System Transient Stability

The integration of machine learning in power systems, particularly in stability and dynamics, addresses the challenges brought by the integration of renewable energies and distributed energy resources (DERs). Traditional methods for power system transient stability, involving solving differential equations with computational techniques, face limitations due to their time-consuming and computationally demanding nature. This paper introduces physics-informed Neural Networks (PINNs) as a promising solution for these challenges, especially in scenarios with limited data availability and the need for high computational speed. PINNs offer a novel approach for complex power systems by incorporating additional equations and adapting to various system scales, from a single bus to multi-bus networks. Our study presents the first comprehensive evaluation of physics-informed Neural Networks (PINNs) in the context of power system transient stability, addressing various grid complexities. Additionally, we introduce a novel approach for adjusting loss weights to improve the adaptability of PINNs to diverse systems. Our experimental findings reveal that PINNs can be efficiently scaled while maintaining high accuracy. Furthermore, these results suggest that PINNs significantly outperform the traditional ode45 method in terms of efficiency, especially as the system size increases, showcasing a progressive speed advantage over ode45.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Reduced-form Cost Model for Prefeasibility Analysis of Hydropower at Non-Powered Dams

This study presents a reduced-form model to support a better understanding of the capacity potential and drivers of costs for hydropower development at U.S. non-powered dams (NPD), which are existing dams that are not currently used for hydropower. With information on nineteen reference sites, a set of reduced-form design and cost equations were estimated to enable rapid assessments of aggregate costs and their components for a large number of NPD sites. The model was then applied to 36,000+ potential U.S. NPD sites using the limited data commonly available. Although the cost estimates span a wide range, there exists a significant amount of U.S. NPD hydropower capacity potential, which are considered cost-competitive in the current market using baseline technologies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Quantitative Risk Assessments of Hydrogen Infrastructure

Typical QRAs provide deterministic estimates and understanding of risks posed but are constructed using significant assumptions and uncertainties due to limited data availability and historical momentum of using nominal estimates. This report presents a hydrogen QRA analysis using HyRAM+ that incorporates uncertainty with Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis using linear regression.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Airport Ground Support Equipment in the United States

Currently, there are limited data on the magnitude and timing of electricity demand from electric ground support equipment (eGSE) across U.S. airports. To address this gap, this study presents a modeling approach for estimating hourly annual electricity demand from eGSE at the 50 largest U.S. commercial airports. These datasets, accessible at data.nrel.gov/submissions/279, provide critical insights into the potential grid impacts and electricity demand associated with eGSE adoption.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗