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At least 253 records · Page 14

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) Model: A Geospatial Platform for Technical Potential and Supply Curve Modeling

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for detailed assessment of renewable energy (RE) resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for assessment of resource potential, technical potential and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on NREL's High Performance Computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location all the way up to continental scales, for a single year or decades of time series resource data. Coupled with NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessment from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolution and provides for analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of RE generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities). Technical potential is measured as a function of resource potential and limitations put on developable land area defined by the user. For example, the user can limit development by land ownership, terrain, land use/cover, and urban areas, as well as custom inputs. Technology, grid interconnection and operation costs, based on the latest market data and future projections, are also embedded in the model. The supply curve module is a spatial sorting algorithm based on plant siting, grid interconnection cost, and regional competition, which provides a geographically discrete estimate of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and supply (i.e., capacity) for specific renewable technologies. The reV model currently provides broad coverage across North America, South and Central Asia, South America and South Africa to inform national- and international-scale analyses as well as regional infrastructure and deployment planning.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Random Forests as a Viable Method to Select and Discover High-redshift Quasars

We present a method of selecting quasars up to redshift ≈6 with random forests, a supervised machine-learning method, applied to Pan-STARRS1 and WISE data. We find that, thanks to the increasing set of known quasars, we can assemble a training set that enables supervised machine-learning algorithms to become a competitive alternative to other methods up to this redshift. We present a candidate set for the redshift range 4.8–6.3, which includes the region around z = 5.5 where selecting quasars is difficult due to their photometric similarity to red and brown dwarfs. We demonstrate that, under our survey restrictions, we can reach a high completeness (66% ± 7% below redshift 5.6/83{sub -9}{sup +6}% above redshift 5.6) while maintaining a high selection efficiency (78{sub -8}{sup +10}%/94{sub -8}{sup +5}%). Our selection efficiency is estimated via a novel method based on the different distributions of quasars and contaminants on the sky. The final catalog of 515 candidates includes 225 known quasars. We predict the candidate catalog to contain additional 148{sub -33}{sup +41} new quasars below redshift 5.6 and 45{sub -8}{sup +5} above, and we make the catalog publicly available. Spectroscopic follow-up observations of 37 candidates led us to discover 20 new high redshift quasars (18 at 4.6 ≤ z ≤ 5.5, 2 z ~ 5.7). These observations are consistent with our predictions on efficiency. We argue that random forests can lead to higher completeness because our candidate set contains a number of objects that would be rejected by common color cuts, including one of the newly discovered redshift 5.7 quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neural networks for parameter estimation in intractable models

The goal is to use deep learning models to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. For instance, inference for max-stable processes is exceptionally challenging even with small datasets, but simulation is straightforward. Data from model simulations are used to train deep neural networks and learn statistical parameters from max-stable models. The proposed neural network-based method provides a competitive alternative to current approaches, as demonstrated by considerable accuracy and computational time improvements. Finally, it serves as a proof of concept for deep learning in statistical parameter estimation and can be extended to other estimation problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tri-Level Scheduling Model Considering Residential Demand Flexibility of Aggregated HVACs and EVs Under Distribution LMP

Residential loads, especially heating, ventilation and air conditioners (HVACs) and electric vehicles (EVs), have great potentials to provide demand flexibility which is an attribute of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB). Under this new paradigm, first, EV and HVAC aggregator models are developed in this paper to represent the fleet of GEBs, in which the aggregated parameters are obtained based on a new approach of data generation and least squares parameter estimation (DG-LSPE), which can deal with heterogeneous HVACs. Then, a tri-level bidding and dispatching framework is established based on competitive distribution operation with distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). Furthermore, the first two levels form a bilevel model to optimize the aggregators’ payment and to represent the interdependency between load aggregators and the distribution system operator (DSO) using DLMP, and the third level is to dispatch the optimal load aggregation to all residents by the proposed priority list-based demand dispatching algorithm. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 33-Bus system illustrate three main technical reasons of payment reduction due to demand flexibility: load shift, DLMP step changes, and power losses. They can be used as general guidelines for better decision-making for future planning and operation of demand response programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Demystifying asynchronous I/O Interference in HPC applications

With increasing complexity of HPC workflows, data management services need to perform expensive I/O operations asynchronously in the background, aiming to overlap the I/O with the application runtime. However, this may cause interference due to competition for resources: CPU, memory/network bandwidth. The advent of multi-core architectures has exacerbated this problem, as many I/O operations are issued concurrently, thereby competing not only with the application but also among themselves. Furthermore, the interference patterns can dynamically change as a response to variations in application behavior and I/O subsystems (e.g. multiple users sharing a parallel file system). Without a thorough understanding, I/O operations may perform suboptimally, potentially even worse than in the blocking case. To fill this gap, here we investigate the causes and consequences of interference due to asynchronous I/O on HPC systems. Specifically, we focus on multi-core CPUs and memory bandwidth, isolating the interference due to each resource. Then, we perform an in-depth study to explain the interplay and contention in a variety of resource sharing scenarios such as varying priority and number of background I/O threads and different I/O strategies: sendfile, read/write, mmap/write underlining trade-offs. The insights from this study are important both to enable guided optimizations of existing background I/O, as well as to open new opportunities to design advanced asynchronous I/O strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

2020 Medical Device Sterilization Workshop: Continuing the Conversation, Summary Report

Technical advancements are making accelerator-based sources of radiation viable candidates for sterilization of medical devices. Electron beams and x-rays are becoming more cost-competitive and new facilities are being built to provide needed capacity and redundancy. As the industry becomes more receptive to these modalities, there is a need for information and data to enable prospective users to evaluate these options for their products. The workshops offered in 20191 and now in 2020 strive to foster conversation between device manufacturers, equipment and service providers on needs, capabilities, and knowledge.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Privacy-Preserving Real-Time Action Detection in Intelligent Vehicles Using Federated Learning-Based Temporal Recurrent Network

This study introduces a privacy-preserving approach for the real-time action detection in intelligent vehicles using a federated learning (FL)-based temporal recurrent network (TRN). This approach enables edge devices to independently train models, enhancing data privacy and scalability by eliminating central data consolidation. Our FL-based TRN effectively captures temporal dependencies, anticipating future actions with high precision. Extensive testing on the Honda HDD and TVSeries datasets demonstrated robust performance in centralized and decentralized settings, with competitive mean average precision (mAP) scores. The experimental results highlighted that our FL-based TRN achieved an mAP of 40.0% in decentralized settings, closely matching the 40.1% in centralized configurations. Notably, the model excelled in detecting complex driving maneuvers, with mAPs of 80.7% for intersection passing and 78.1% for right turns. These outcomes affirm the model’s accuracy in action localization and identification. The system showed significant scalability and adaptability, maintaining robust performance across increased client device counts. The integration of a temporal decoder enabled predictions of future actions up to 2 s ahead, enhancing the responsiveness. Our research advances intelligent vehicle technology, promoting safety and efficiency while maintaining strict privacy standards.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Comparing Automated Posterior Estimation Techniques for Modeling Strong Lenses In Ground-based Survey Data

Current and future ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), are predicted to discover thousands to tens of thousands of strong gravitational lenses. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. However, conventional lens modeling techniques are unable to scale up to the sheer number of lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys. Therefore, the use of automated lens analysis techniques is necessary. We demonstrate that machine learning methods can be used to automate the inference of informative model posteriors of strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys with credible uncertainty estimation. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate applications of Neural Posteriors Estima tors (NPEs) and Bayesian Neural Network (BNNs) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lensing system for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We apply a suite of diagnostics (e.g., posterior coverage and SBC) to validate the performance of our methods. We find that NPEs outperform the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Strong Lensing Parameter Estimation on Ground-Based Imaging Data Using Simulation-Based Inference

Current ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), are predicted to discover thousands of galaxy-scale strong lenses, while future surveys, such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will increase that number by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. To leverage the increased statistical power of the lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys, automated lens analysis techniques are necessary. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate the successful application of Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lens mass model for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We compare our NPE constraints to a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) and find that it outperforms the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Nickel hydroxide–nickel carbonate competitive growth on carbonate surfaces

The thermodynamic and kinetic factors controlling the competitive heterogeneous nucleation and growth of ubiquitous metal carbonate and hydroxide phases are poorly understood. In this work, calcite (CaCO 3 ) and magnesite (MgCO 3 ) powders were reacted with NiCl 2 (0–600 μM) for 7 days at 22 °C and 5 °C. The reacted powders were analyzed with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning electron microscopy, and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy to characterize the Ni surface precipitates formed. Evidence from these techniques pointed to the formation of mixed Ni carbonate-Ni hydroxide amorphous surface precipitates. On calcite, XPS detected primarily Ni(OH) 2 despite the initial solutions being more supersaturated with respect to gaspéite (NiCO 3 ) than to theophrastite (Ni(OH) 2 ) by a factor of 17–18. In contrast, NiCO 3 was the dominant component detected by XPS on magnesite in the same conditions. Decreasing the temperature had the effect of increasing the proportion of NiCO 3 to the detriment of Ni(OH) 2 . The experimental observations were consistent with low lattice/cation size mismatch favoring NiCO 3 nucleation and temperature most influencing Ni(OH) 2 nucleation. Comparison to previous work on Co-reacted powders indicated the differences in lattice/cation size mismatch and/or water exchange rate impacted the composition of the surface precipitates more than the relative thermodynamic stabilities of the competing minerals. This work explored the heterogeneous growth regime of Ni carbonate and hydroxide phases on carbonate surfaces and shed light on the factors that control the competition between surface precipitates when mineral surfaces are in contact with aqueous solutions supersaturated with respect to multiple mineral phases. In conclusion, these results contribute to geochemists’ efforts toward interpreting data from geochemical systems with elevated Ni concentrations, improving Ni environmental remediation and recovery strategies, and predicting the fate and transport of Ni in geochemical systems.

Heterogeneous nucleation↗

An Analysis of High Opportunity Geothermal Leasing Areas on BLM and USFS Lands

This analysis, conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO), models potential geothermal deployment on BLM and USFS land for the years 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2050 under various scenarios using the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. This report identifies potential future high opportunity geothermal leasing areas (i.e., Best, Middle, and Least identified opportunities) based on available data for geothermal resource potential, natural resource conflicts, and transmission access. In addition, this analysis considers the impacts of the Energy Policy Act of 2005's (EPAct 2005's) default competitive leasing provisions, specifically the impact this may have had on geothermal resource discovery outside of known geothermal resource areas.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Prediction of Solute Segregation at Metal/Oxide Interfaces Using Machine Learning Approaches

The atomic structure and chemistry at metal/oxide interfaces play a crucial role in determining their properties. However, studying semi-coherent metal/oxide interfaces that include misfit dislocations through density functional theory (DFT) is often computationally expensive due to the large number of atoms involved, ranging from hundreds to thousands. In this study, we explore solute segregation behavior at the Fe/Y 2 O 3 interface—an important model interface for cladding applications in nuclear fission reactors—by combining DFT calculations with a machine learning (ML) approach. ML models are trained using DFT-calculated segregation energies (𝐸 𝑆𝑒𝑔 ) to identify the key chemical and geometric factors influencing solute segregation at metal/oxide interfaces, revealing the competition between these features in determining 𝐸 𝑆𝑒𝑔 . Moreover, the segregation behavior at a specific Fe/Y 2 O 3 interface is predicted with high accuracy using ML models trained on data from this interface. Furthermore, it is found that the ML models could also predict solute segregation at a different Fe/Y 2 O 3 interface with a new orientation relationship (OR), at a computational cost of less than 1/45 of that required for similar DFT calculations.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Critical review of functionalized silica sorbent strategies for selective extraction of rare earth elements from acid mine drainage

We report the ubiquitous and growing global reliance on rare earth elements (REEs) for modern technology and the need for reliable domestic sources underscore the rising trend in REE-related research. Adsorption-based methods for REE recovery from liquid waste sources are well-positioned to compete with those of solvent extraction, both because of their expected lower negative environmental impact and simpler process operations. Functionalized silica represents a rising category of low cost and stable sorbents for heavy metal and REE recovery. These materials have collectively achieved high capacity and/or high selective removal of REEs from ideal solutions and synthetic or real coal wastewater and other leachate source. These sorbents are competitive with conventional materials, such as ion exchange resins, activated carbon; and novel polymeric materials like ion-imprinted particles and metal organic frameworks (MOFs). This critical review first presents a data mining analysis for rare earth element recovery publications indexed in Web of science, highlighting changes in REE recovery research foci and confirming the sharply growing interest in functionalized silica sorbents. A detailed examination of sorbent formulation and operation strategies to selectively separate heavy (HREE), middle (MREE), and light (LREE) REEs from the aqueous sources is presented. Selectivity values for sorbents were largely calculated from available figure data and gauged the success of the associated strategies, primarily: (1) silane-grafted ligands, (2) impregnated ligands, and (3) bottom-up ligand/silica hybrids. These were often accompanied by successful co-strategies, especially bite angle control, site saturation, and selective REE elution. Recognizing the need to remove competing fouling metals to achieve purified REE “baskets,” we highlight techniques for eliminating these species from acid mine drainage (AMD) and suggest a novel adsorption-based process for purified REE extraction that could be adapted to different water systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Exascale applications: skin in the game

As noted in Wikipedia, skin in the game refers to having ‘incurred risk by being involved in achieving a goal’, where ‘ skin is a synecdoche for the person involved, and game is the metaphor for actions on the field of play under discussion’. For exascale applications under development in the US Department of Energy Exascale Computing Project, nothing could be more apt, with the skin being exascale applications and the game being delivering comprehensive science-based computational applications that effectively exploit exascale high-performance computing technologies to provide breakthrough modelling and simulation and data science solutions. These solutions will yield high-confidence insights and answers to the most critical problems and challenges for the USA in scientific discovery, national security, energy assurance, economic competitiveness and advanced healthcare. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science’.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improved Distributed-memory Triangle Counting by Exploiting the Graph Structure

Graphs are ubiquitous in modeling complex systems and representing interactions between entities to uncover structural information of the domain. Traditionally, graph analytics workloads are challenging to efficiently scale (both strong and weak cases) on distributed memory due to the irregular memory-access driven nature (with little or no computations) of the methods. The structure of graphs and their relative distribution over the processing elements poses another level of complexity, making it difficult to attain sustainable scalability across platforms. In this paper, we discuss enhancements to TriC, a distributed-memory implementation of graph triangle counting using Message Passing Interface (MPI), which was featured in the 2020 Graph Challenge competition. We have made some incremental enhancements to TriC, primarily adopting a user-defined buffering strategy to overcome the startup problem for large graphs (by fixing the memory for intermediate data), and experimenting with probabilistic data structures such as bloom filter to improve the query response time for assessing edge existence, at the expense of increasing the overall false positive rate. These adjustments have led to a modest improvements in most cases, as compared to the previous version.

Graph Analytics, HPC↗

Coupled wave-current modeling for hydrodynamic load analysis of macroalgae cultivation farms

Large-scale cultivation of macroalgae is one of the most promising biofuel sources that could reduce our consumption of fossil fuels and would be particularly economically competitive when grown for the co-production of additional goods such as food and textiles. Current production of biofuel from algal biomass is limited by labor costs and lack of data on potential impacts of cultivation and harvesting on marine and coastal environments as well as a comprehensive characterization of the impact of environmental conditions on macroalgal feedstock and their bioproduct and biofuel yield and quality. Awarded by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Macroalgae Research Inspiring Novel Energy Resources (MARINER) program, which seeks to enable the U.S. as a global leader in the production of marine biomass, the Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL) has been developing a test system for tropical seaweed cultivation in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. An integral step in designing macroalgae cultivation farms is to adequately characterize the hydrodynamic climate at potential growth sites. In regions like the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, which are highly exposed to tropical cyclones, it is critical to not only consider the day-to-day hydrodynamic conditions but to also assess the risk of extreme sea states to ensure the survivability of future macroalgae farms. Under these considerations, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is providing modeling support for MBL to inform the design and siting of the farm systems that have been proposed for their ARPA-E MARINER project. This report describes the development of a high-resolution coupled storm surge and wave model to simulate the hydrodynamics and wave climate at proposed macroalgae cultivation sites selected by MBL in Florida and Puerto Rico. Model results, including model validation, water level, current distributions, and sea states, are discussed for both selected sites in Florida and Puerto Rico coast. These simulations provide an accurate insight into the hydrodynamic conditions that a macroalgae farm is likely to experience during its operational lifetime, including current information to support fine-scale hydrodynamic load modeling, risk analysis and system design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Multifidelity Ensemble Kalman Filtering Using Surrogate Models Defined by Theory-Guided Autoencoders

Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The multifidelity ensemble Kalman filter (MFEnKF) recently developed by the authors combines a full-order physical model and a hierarchy of reduced order surrogate models in order to increase the computational efficiency of data assimilation. The standard MFEnKF uses linear couplings between models, and is statistically optimal in case of Gaussian probability densities. This work extends the MFEnKF into to make use of a broader class of surrogate model such as those based on machine learning methods such as autoencoders non-linear couplings in between the model hierarchies. We identify the right-invertibility property for autoencoders as being a key predictor of success in the forecasting power of autoencoder-based reduced order models. We propose a methodology that allows us to construct reduced order surrogate models that are more accurate than the ones obtained via conventional linear methods. Numerical experiments with the canonical Lorenz'96 model illustrate that nonlinear surrogates perform better than linear projection-based ones in the context of multifidelity ensemble Kalman filtering. We additionality show a large-scale proof-of-concept result with the quasi-geostrophic equations, showing the competitiveness of the method with a traditional reduced order model-based MFEnKF.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗