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NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Medical Risk on a Long Duration Lunar Mission: A Demonstration of NASA’s IMPACT Tradespace Analysis Tool

Background NASA’s human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in-mission medical care. The distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and constraints on the medical evacuation of astronauts. Mass, volume, power, and data will be limited while higher demands will be placed on the crew to manage medical care. NASA’s Moon to Mars exploration strategy lays out increasingly complex Artemis missions both in terms of duration and operations. In these more challenging deep space missions, it is important to quantitatively estimate the human medical risk to inform a traditional heuristic approach to medical risk. Prior tools have been developed for missions in low Earth orbit, but a new tool is required to plan for future exploration missions. Methods IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a risk assessment tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design by quantitatively estimating mission medical risk. IMPACT v1.0 includes a novel evidence library baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; the addition of medical resources; and the ability for rapid and iterative analysis. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life, consideration of the need for return to definitive care (medical evacuation), and an estimate of crew time affected due to medical conditions. A notional long duration lunar orbit and lunar surface design reference mission (DRM) was chosen with a 4-astronaut crew to represent a sustained exploration Artemis mission. Results/Discussion Overall, IMPACT successfully quantified medical risk and derived an optimized medical system to support crew on a long duration lunar mission. In this DRM, the calculated loss of crew life from a medical event was 0.008 events per mission, risk of potential need for evacuation was 0.30 events per mission, and cumulative crew time affected by medical conditions was 103 days. The medical conditions that most contributed to overall medical risk were decompression sickness, trauma conditions, and respiratory failure. The conditions that had the largest effects on crew performance included musculoskeletal injuries and lunar dust exposure. The IMPACT-generated medical system included resources that target the most common and highest risk conditions. This systematic analysis demonstrates the value of the IMPACT tool in medical system design for human exploration spaceflight missions.

Missions to Mars↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design and synthesis of biobased superhydrophobic biochar catalyst derived from Citrus sinensis for biodiesel production using inedible oil feedstocks

In an one-pot in situ trans/esterification of low-grade feedstocks, the simultaneous presence of triglycerides (TAGs) and free fatty acids (FFAs) presents a dual catalytic challenge. While TAGs undergo transesterification to form biodiesel and glycerol, FFAs present in the feedstocks are esterified simultaneously, producing water as a by-product. This water can deactivate acid catalysts by interacting with their active sites, reducing catalytic efficiency and reusability. To overcome this, we developed a hydrophobic sulfonic acid-functionalized biochar catalyst derived from Citrus sinensis (orange peel) via sulfonation with H 2 SO 4 and subsequent silylation using hexamethyldisilazane (HMDS). The optimized catalyst exhibited a high surface area (355.09 m 2 g −1 ), sulfur content (5.33 wt%), and strong hydrophobicity (water contact angle: 154°). Compared to non-hydrophobic analogs, it showed enhanced activity and reusability (up to 10 cycles). Using response surface methodology with central composite design, a biodiesel yield of 99.1 ± 0.4% was achieved under optimal conditions. Life cycle assessment was performed to evaluate the environmental impacts of biodiesel production utilising the synthesized catalyst, considering 1000 kg of biodiesel produced as 1 functional unit. In conclusion, the recorded results showed the cumulative abiotic depletion of fossil resources over the entire biodiesel production process as 87 243.423 MJ and global warming potential as 4103.494 kg CO 2 equivalent.

Biochar↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Key Requirements for 450 GW of Renewable Capacity in India by 2030

In this policy brief, we assess the prerequisites for India to achieve 450 GW of solar and wind cumulative installed capacity by 2030. We examine requirements such as availability of land, new transmission buildout, financing and pace of deployment, as well as the impact on grid reliability and cost of generation. We also examine the impact of policies promoting domestic manufacturing. Deploying 307 GW of solar and 142 GW of wind capacity would use only about 1.25% of land that is categorized as barren or waste, which is equivalent to about 0.22% of the total land area in India. Because of the good solar resource across large swaths of India, the solar energy buildout—and thus the land use—potentially can be spread out. India would need about 280 GW of new interstate transmission capacity by 2030, a little over double the transmission expansion that has already been planned through 2025. However, most of the new transmission buildout is driven by the near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030. The total investment needed (in generation and storage resources) to realize this target is around USD 26.5 billion annually, which is 20% lower than the annual investment in India’s power sector across all generation resources between 2015 and 2019. We estimate that using domestically manufactured panels instead of imported panels may increase solar PPA prices by about 10%–15% in the medium term, but solar power would still be a cost-effective way to meet growing demand instead of building new fossil fuel-based power plants, because the price of electricity from solar plants has fallen below the variable cost of most existing coal units. To reach this target, India would need to build about 35–40 GW of solar and wind capacity every year in this decade. India’s power sector achieved a pace of capacity addition of 22 GW per year in the previous decade (including thermal and renewable). Policy and regulatory measures would be needed to increase the pace of deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1971

Meteoroid activity on the lunar surface from the Surveyor 3 sample examination

The Surveyor 3 television camera shroud and polished aluminum tube, retrieved as a result of the Apollo 12 mission after 2-1/2 years on the lunar surface, were examined at the NASA Manned Spacecraft Center for evidence of meteoroid impact. The results of this examination were compared with other estimates of the meteoroid flux in the lunar vicinity and are shown to be in good agreement with the Lunar Orbiter penetration rates. In addition, the relationship between a derived lunar surface meteoroid cumulative-flux model and the comparable near-earth model is discussed in the light of theoretical predictions. It is shown that the effect of the gravitational field of the earth on the near-earth environment was greater than previously predicted. The implication is that the average meteoroid velocity relative to the earth is probably 17 km/s. The many low velocity impacts on the Surveyor 3 camera and tube are shown to be of lunar surface origin and to be primarily the result of rocket exhaust interaction.

Cour-Palais, B. G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of intensity, footprint, and capacity of surface urban heat islands using a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method

Here, the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect, assessed through remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST), remains a focal point in urban climate research. Conventional indicators like SUHI intensity (SUHII) and footprint (SUHIF) capture peak values and spatial extent but fail to account for the cumulative thermal load—a critical dimension reflecting the total heat exposure imposed by spatially continuous warming, which directly limits a holistic assessment of ecological and societal impacts of the SUHI effect. Therefore, this study introduces an indicator termed SUHI capacity (SUHIC), designed to quantify the aggregated SUHI effect by integrating the magnitude of the warming signal across all affected areas, thereby enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of urban thermal environments. Furthermore, a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method is proposed for the quantification of SUHIC. This method can dynamically identify the optimal background reference area based on the urban-rural LST gradients in various directions within the city, without relying on predefined mathematical models as previously. The results from 102 European cities first confirm that the directional variations in urban-rural LST gradients, and the DEASE method can effectively capture these distinctions for the simultaneous estimation of SUHII, SUHIF, and SUHIC. Secondly, the spatial patterns of absolute SUHIC values show strong associations with those of SUHIF (R2>0.86), while its relative values (normalized by the area of urban) align more closely with SUHII (R2 > 0.64). More importantly, SUHIC can serve as a crucial reference for assessing the urban thermal signal when SUHII and SUHIF diverge. The proposed method and framework contribute to standardizing the quantification of the SUHI effect.

Indicator↗

DOE OSTI2020

Economic losses from extreme weather in the U.S. Gulf Coast region: spatially differential contributions of climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability

Worldwide economic losses from extreme weather events (EWE) have increased over recent decades, with significant geographic heterogeneity in damages. The IPCC defines the risk from EWE as a function of the climate hazard, socioeconomic exposure, and vulnerability. Although these three drivers vary at fine spatial scales, spatial variability largely has been overlooked in assessments of the drivers of economic loss from EWE. Using cluster analysis, we developed a novel socio-climate hazard typology (SCT) that integrates locally defined climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and social vulnerability typologies. The results identified 838 unique SCT types impacted by EWE across the Gulf Coastal United States during 1981–2010. We regressed the SCT types and their constituent hazard and socioeconomic components against the cumulative economic loss (1981–2010) from EWE for each SCT type. Across the landscape, economic damages of SCT types were determined by unique, spatially explicit combinations of different risk factors, even in explaining the same level of economic loss. For example, multi-billion-dollar damages in the central Gulf Coast and peninsular Florida were explained by different drivers of risk, with damages in the former explained by additive interaction between climate hazard and multiplicative interaction between climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability, and in the latter explained by socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability. These results highlight the need to diagnose additive and multiplicative interactions among drivers of EWE risk in a spatially explicit context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

A study of the United States coal resources

Geologically significant coal resources were identified. Statistically controlled tonnage estimates for each resource type were prepared. Particular emphasis was placed on the identification and description of coals in terms of seam thickness, inclination, depth of cover, discontinuities caused by faulting and igneous intrusion, and occurrence as isolated or multiseam deposits. The national resource was organized into six major coal provinces: the Appalachian Plateau, the Interior Basins, the Gulf Coastal Plain, the Rocky Mountain Basins, the High Plains, and North Alaska. Each basin within a province was blocked into subareas of homogeneous coal thickness. Total coal tonnage for a subarea was estimated from an analysis of the cumulative coal thickness derived from borehole or surface section records and subsequently categorized in terms of seam thickness, dip, overburden, multiseam proportions, coal quality, and tonnage impacted by severe faulting and igneous intrusions. Confidence intervals were calculated for both subarea and basin tonnage estimates.

Ferm, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Europa Surface Radiation Environment for Lander Assessment

The Jovian magnetospheric particle environment at Europa's surface is critical to assessment of landed astrobiological experiments in three respects: (1) the landing site must be chosen for the best prospects for detectable organic or inorganic signs of Life, e.g. regions of freshly emergent flows from the subsurface; (2) lander systems must reach the surface through the Jovian magnetospheric environment and operate long enough on the surface to return useful data; (3) lander instrumentation must be capable of detecting signs of life in the context of the local environmental radiation and associated chemistry. The Galileo, Voyager, and Pioneer missions have provided a wealth of data on energetic particle intensities throughout the Jovian magnetosphere including from many flybys of Europa. cumulative radiation dosages for spacecraft enroute to Europa can be well characterized, but knowledge of the surface radiation environment is very limited. Energetic electrons should primarily impact the trailing hemisphere with decreasing intensity towards the center of the leading hemisphere and are the most significant radiation component down to meter depths in the surface regolith due to secondary interactions. Observed surface distribution for sulfates is suggestive of electron irradiation but may have alternative interpretations. Having much-larger magnetic gyroradii than electrons, energetic protons and heavier ions irradiate more of the global surface. The particular orientations of electron, proton, and ion gyromotion would project into corresponding directional (e.g., east-west) anisotropies of particle flu into the surface. Particular topographic features at the landing site may therefore offer shielding from part of the incident radiation.

Cooper, John F.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Mineralogy of nakhlite Martian meteorites: Implications for their relative burial depths

Nakhlites are Martian cumulate rocks mainly composed of augite with variable amounts of olivine and groundmass (mesostasis). Currently seven samples are known: Nakhla (Nak), Governador Valadares (GV), Lafayette (Laf), NWA817, Y000593 (Y), NWA998 and MIL03346 (MIL). All the nakhlites show a similar unbrecciated cumulate texture, and their identical crystallization and exposure ages suggest that they originated from the same igneous body on Mars and were ejected by the same impact event. It is important to study difference of their mineralogy to reconstruct the igneous body from which nakhlites originated. Augite grains in all nakhlites have a nearly identical core composition (En39Fs22Wo39) and have thin Fe-rich rims. These Fe-rich rims are zoned to Ca-poor pyroxene compositions and the degree of chemical zoning varies from one sample to another. NWA998 has the most Mg-rich edge composition. The edge composition becomes more Fe-rich in the order of Laf, Nak/GV, Y and NWA817. Unlike other samples, the Fe-rich edge of MIL augite is zoned to the hedenbergite composition. Olivine grains in all samples except Laf and NWA998 show extensive chemical zoning whose degree is clearly related to the chemical zoning of pyroxenes. MIL and NWA817 have the widest compositional ranges (Fa54-93). Y has a slightly narrower compositional range of Fa58-85. Nak and GV have even narrower ranges (Fa58-72). In contrast to these samples, olivines in Laf and NWA998 are homogeneous (Fa66-67 and Fa61-62, respectively). Such chemical zoning (Fa and Ca) can be used to quantitatively estimate their cooling rates (burial depths) because it was clearly formed by interaction with the intercumulus melt. The obtained burial depths are 1-2 m for NWA817, 4 m for MIL, 7 m for Y, approx.10 m for Nak and GV, and >30 m for Laf and NWA998. This order is clearly related to the degree of pyroxene chemical zoning. The abundance and mineralogy of nakhlite groundmass are also consistent with this order. In Nak, GV and Laf, the groundmass abundance is about 7-8%. Y and NWA998 have a slightly higher abundance (10%), while NWA817 and MIL have much higher abundance (20-24%). The groundmass texture is also related to its abundance. The groundmass of Nak, GV, Laf and Y is mainly composed of feldspar laths. In contrast, NWA817 and MIL have glassy mesostasis without feldspar crystals. In NWA998, feldspar is a large blocky crystal with clear twinning, suggesting that it is even deeper than Laf.

Mikouchi, T.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multiple Reservoirs of Volatiles in the Moon Revealed by the Isotopic Composition of Chlorine in Lunar Basalts

The isotopes of chlorine (37Cl and 35Cl) are highly fractionated in lunar samples compared to most other Solar System materials. Recently, the chlorine isotope signatures of lunar rocks have been attributed to large-scale degassing processes that occurred during the existence of a magma ocean. In this study we investigated how well a suite of lunar basalts, most of which have not previously been analyzed, conform to previous models. The Cl isotope compositions (δ37Cl (‰) = [(37Cl/35Clsample/37Cl/35ClSMOC) − 1] × 1000, where SMOC refers to standard mean ocean chloride) recorded range from ∼+7 to +14‰ (Apollo 15), +10 to +19‰ (Apollo 12), +9 to +15‰ (70017), +4 to +8‰ (MIL 05035), and +15 to +22‰ (Kalahari 009). The Cl isotopic data from the present study support the mixing trends previously reported by Boyce et al. (2015) and Barnes et al. (2016), as the Cl isotopic composition of apatites are positively correlated with bulk-rock incompatible trace element abundances in the low-Ti basalts, inclusive of low-Ti and KREEP basalts. This trend has been interpreted as evidence that incompatible trace elements, including Cl, were concentrated in the urKREEP residual liquid of the lunar magma ocean, rather than the mantle cumulates, and that urKREEP Cl had a highly fractionated isotopic composition. The source regions for the basalts were thus created by variable mixing between the mantle (Cl-poor and relatively unfractionated) and urKREEP. The high-Ti basalts show much more variability in measured Cl isotope ratios and scatter around the trend formed by the low-Ti basalts. Most of the data for lunar meteorites also fits the mixing of volatiles in their sources, but Kalahari 009, which is highly depleted in incompatible trace elements, contains apatites with heavily fractionated Cl isotopic compositions. Given that Kalahari 009 is one of the oldest lunar basalts and ought to have been derived from very early-formed mantle cumulates, a heavy Cl isotopic signature is likely not related to its mantle source, but more likely to magmatic or secondary alteration processes, perhaps via impact-driven vapor metasomatism of the lunar crust.

Mccubbin, Francis M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Galileo SSI lunar observations: Copernican craters and soils

The Galileo spacecraft completed its first Earth-Moon flyby (EMI) in December 1990 and its second flyby (EM2) in December 1992. Copernican-age craters are among the most prominent features seen in the SSI (Solid-State Imaging) multispectral images of the Moon. The interiors, rays, and continuous ejecta deposits of these youngest craters stand out as the brightest features in images of albedo and visible/1-micron color ratios (except where impact melts are abundant). Crater colors and albedos (away from impact melts) are correlated with their geologic emplacement ages as determined from counts of superposed craters; these age-color relations can be used to estimate the emplacement age (time since impact event) for many Copernican-age craters on the near and far sides of the Moon. The spectral reflectivities of lunar soils are controlled primarily by (1) soil maturity, resulting from the soil's cumulative age of exposure to the space environment; (2) steady-state horizontal and vertical mixing of fresh crystalline materials ; and (3) the mineralogy of the underlying bedrock or megaregolith. Improved understanding of items (1) and (2) above will improve our ability to interpret item (3), especially for the use of crater compositions as probes of crustal stratigraphy. We have examined the multispectral and superposed crater frequencies of large isolated craters, mostly of Eratosthenian and Copernican ages, to avoid complications due to (1) secondaries (as they affect superposed crater counts) and (2) spatially and temporally nonuniform regolith mixing from younger, large, and nearby impacts. Crater counts are available for 11 mare craters and 9 highlands craters within the region of the Moon imaged during EM1. The EM2 coverage provides multispectral data for 10 additional craters with superposed crater counts. Also, the EM2 data provide improved spatial resolution and signal-to-noise ratios over the western nearside.

Mcewen, A. S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Life Cycle Assessment of Pasture-based Agrivoltaic Systems: Emissions and Energy Use of Integrated Rabbit Production

Agrivoltaic systems, which deliberately maximize the utility of a single parcel of land for both solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity production and agriculture, have been demonstrated as a viable technology that can ameliorate competing land uses and meet growing energy and food demands efficiently. The goal of this study is to assess the environmental impacts of a novel pasture-based agrivoltaic concept: co-farming rabbits and solar PV. A life cycle assessment (LCA) quantified the impacts of 1) the integrated agrivoltaic concept in comparison to conventional practices including 2) separate rabbit farming and PV production and 3) separate rabbit farming and conventional electricity production. The impact assessment methods employed to determine the environmental impacts were IPCC 2013 global warming potential 100a V1.03 and fossil energy demand V1.11. The results indicate that the pasture-based agrivoltaic system produces the least amount of greenhouse gas emissions (3.8 million kg CO₂ equivalent) and demands the least amount of fossil energy (46 million MJ) per functional unit of cumulative MWh output of electricity and cumulative kg of meat over 30 years in comparison to the two other scenarios under study. The pasture-based agrivoltaic system features a dual synergy that consequently produces 69.3% less emissions and demands 82.9% less fossil energy compared to non-integrated production. The potential for agrivoltaic systems to significantly reduce environmental impacts revealed by this LCA, which was limited to emissions and fossil energy demand, demonstrates that integrated solar and pasture-based agricultural systems are superior to conventional practices in terms of their comparatively lower emission and energy intensity. These findings provide empirical support for increased agrivoltaic system development more broadly.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2024

Revisiting the petrogenesis of pyroclastic glass bead deposits at the Apollo 15 and 17 sites

The Apollo 15 low-titanium and Apollo 17 high-titanium pyroclastic glass beads are amongst the most primitive magmatically derived samples obtained from the Moon. Two key samples, the low-Ti Apollo 15426 green glass clod and the high-Ti Apollo 74220 orange glass are morphologically distinct, where the Apollo 15 beads are larger (~ 107 μm along maximum axis) and more fractured, and the Apollo 17 are smaller (~42 μm) and less fractured. In this study, holohyaline beads as well as crystallized beads were examined from both samples. Crystallized beads show compositional variability in major, minor, and trace elements and enable examination of magmatic mineral fractionation processes during cooling of both deposits. The Apollo 15426 beads experienced variable olivine crystallization, whereas the Apollo 74220 beads experienced both olivine and ilmenite crystallization. Holohyaline beads from both deposits show more limited major, minor, and trace element variability than their crystallized counterparts. Trace element abundance data for individual holohyaline beads show that in Apollo 74220, they are tightly clustered at ~30 × Carbonaceous Ivuna chondrite [CI] with negative Eu anomalies and subchondritic Nb/Ta, and interpreted to reflect the presence of late-stage magma ocean cumulate overturned into an otherwise primitive mantle source. Incompatible trace element abundances for holohyaline beads in 15426 are supra-chondritic from ~8 × CI, to >80 × CI, with pronounced relative depletions in Sr and Eu for the most incompatible element enriched beads, which represent a distinct bead group within the deposit. Apollo 15426 beads have elevated Ni and Co abundances at the edges of the beads compared to their centers. These data are interpreted to reflect a more complex magmatic evolution of the 15426 deposit, beginning with: (i) initial magma generation, storage and assimilation within shallower low-Ca and high-Ca pyroxene bearing magma ocean cumulates (15B,C); (ii) mobilization of the earlier magmas by more recently generated primitive magmas (15A); (iii) eruption and crystallization of some beads (15D,E), and (iv) later jumbling of the deposit, possible impact contamination and addition of exotic bead components (J Group). In contrast, the 74220 data shows no discernable difference between Ni and Co abundances at the edges and centers supporting prior observations for limited melt fractionation and an absence of meteoritic components. It is further suggested that both deposits are likely to have been formed in the presence of a transient atmosphere. Using 74220 melt compositions from this study, post-entrapment crystallization abundances range from 266 to 1130 micrograms/g for H 2 O, 36 to 68 micrograms/g for F, 441 to 832 micrograms/g for S, and zero to 2.31 micrograms/g for Cl, consistent with prior studies and suggesting up to ~0.1 wt.% H 2 O in the melt, with considerably less in the source. The role that late-stage magma ocean cumulates rich in ilmenite, apatite and high-Ca pyroxene might play in modifying this volatile element estimate, however, casts remaining doubt on the volatile element abundance and evolution of the primitive Moon.

Moon↗

DOE OSTI2024

A new 181 Ta neutron resolved resonance region evaluation

A new 181 Ta neutron resolved resonance region evaluation has been performed from the thermal energy range up to approximately 2.5 keV. The R-matrix SAMMY code was used with the Reich–Moore approximation to evaluate resonance parameters from several experimental data sets. A Monte Carlo approach was used for resonance spin assignments and generating 59 small fictitious resonance levels which were shown to improve the cumulative level, Porter-Thomas, and Wigner distributions as compared to theoretical predictions. Covariance information was also generated for the entire resolved resonance region. Finally, the positive impact of the new evaluation was validated through benchmark calculations which were sensitive to the 181 Ta cross section and showed improvement in the reactivity bias for several benchmark cases.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multicriterion benefit evaluation methodology for safety enhancements in nuclear power plants and application for FLEX strategies

Here we propose a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) methodology for evaluating costs and benefits of implementing safety enhancements in nuclear power plants. The MCBE methodology establishes a comprehensive evaluation scope using multiple evaluation criteria (including public risk, occupational risk, plant revenue, and plant cost) and multiple contexts (including plant normal operations, incidents, and accidents). The MCBE methodology formulates a benefit or cost element as the product of a monetary consequence and its occurrence-likelihood change. The MCBE methodology also incorporates a decision maker’ preferences toward occurrence likelihood and monetary consequence into cost and benefit estimations through a modified usage of cumulative prospect theory. This paper applies the MCBE methodology to the implementation of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX) in a generic nuclear power plant as an illustrative example. The FLEX benefits are evaluated through three types of influence paths: plant safety enhancement, risk-informed activities, and potential additional credit of FLEX in supporting plant operation and maintenance-efficiency improvement. The benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of FLEX implementation is calculated. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to examine the impacts of modeling assumptions and input parameter values on the BCR.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS1991

Breakup of meteoroids in the Venusian atmosphere and its effects on crater formation

Early results of the Magellan mission to Venus show that almost all of the observed impact craters appear to be unaffected by erosion, burial, and tectonic deformation. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that the observed paucity of small craters in the cumulative size-frequency distribution (SFD) relative to the simple power laws observed on airless planets is most likely due to atmospheric effects on the incoming meteoroids. A model was developed earlier for travel and breakup of a meteoroid in an atmosphere, but this model was never used to estimate a SFD. An attempt is made to match the cumulative SFD and the number and size distribution of multiple-floored craters and crater fields using this model.

Herrick, R. R.↗

NASA NTRS2023

A New View of the Lunar South Pole from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA)

Upcoming missions to the lunar south pole require detailed maps over large areas to fully characterize landing sites locally and regionally and to place their data into proper geologic context. To that end, we enhanced the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) altimetry dataset for the south polar region, from which we produced new maps of topography, topographic roughness, and permanently shadowed regions (PSRs). The roughness maps reveal a diversity of terrains characterized by hectometer-scale roughness which is controlled in this region primarily by cratering and downslope mass transport. The south polar region is littered with linear roughness features of order ~1 – 10 km wide and ~10s – 100s of km long hypothesized to be secondary impacts within extended ejecta rays. Non uniformities in these features could reflect variations in secondary impactor properties and/or target terrain properties. Poleward of 80° S, the PSR cumulative size-frequency distribution (CSFD) shows an approximately power-law behavior whose exponent has a spatial variation of ~10%. PSRs with areas < 1 km2 contain 15 ± 5% of the total PSR area. Finally, we studied the effect of false positives and false negatives on the accuracy of the measured PSR cumulative size-frequency distribution (CSFD) and on the area for any individual PSR. The new maps presented here have many applications in the science and exploration of the lunar south polar region, such as geologic mapping and traverse planning.

Michael K. Barker↗