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Project No. 5: Evaluating Dredged Materials for Energy Storage Applications with Economic and Carbon Benefits (CRADA Final Report)

The New York Power Authority (NYPA) is committed to supporting the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) through its VISION2030 strategic plan. As a clean energy provider, NYPA is seeking to demonstrate leadership in every aspect of its business by taking a comprehensive approach to sustainability management and integrating sustainability principles into day-to-day decision-making. This effort includes planning for climate resilience through projects that mitigate climate risk in our operations and prioritize climate opportunities in our investments. Canal Corporation, a subsidiary of NYPA, is charged with maintaining minimum water depths for navigation in the Cayuga-Seneca, Champlain, Erie and Oswego Canals. In order to do so, an average volume of 280,000 cubic yards of sediment is dredged annually and held in Upland Disposal Sites (UDS) permitted by the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). The required on-land storage at UDSes are nearing capacity, and disposal opportunities are costly, both economically and environmentally. Novel energy storage technology developed by NREL provides an opportunity for meeting NYPA's need to find reuse options for dredged materials and commitment to providing clean reliable energy. This would also support NYPA's goal of developing 300 MW of utility scale storage and enabling 150 MW of distributed storage by 2030. NREL will consult NYPA on the environmental and economic impact of reusing dredged materials as useful commodities such as energy storage media, construction sand or industrial uses. Test and material characterization methods will be based on current NREL storage material characterization approaches. NREL worked with NYPA on sample preparation, material testing, test results analysis. Test and material characterization methods were based on current NREL storage material characterization approaches. The team analyzed the environmental and economic impact of reusing dredged materials as useful commodities such as energy storage media, construction sand or industrial uses. The test and analysis works have achieved the project goal in characterizing NYPA dredging materials and verifying their various uses including construction sand and thermal energy storage media. Uses of dredging materials as useful materials will bring economic and environmental benefits and avoid disposal costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Transmission Operator Workflows for Real-Time Reliability Studies: A Review of Control Room Practices and Naturalistic Decision Making

This report provides an overview of real-time reliability study tools and their use by power system operators in the control room environment. After introducing some of the nuances of the control room environment and the differences in perspectives between power system engineers and operators, the roles and responsibilities of key entities involved in RTCA workflows are introduced. These are specifically the transmission system operator (TOP) and reliability coordinator (RC), which are required to run tools such as real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) as part of a real-time reliability assessment every 30 minutes, as dictated by a series of standards issued by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The process by which power systems operators operate the grid is discussed in terms of naturalistic decision making (NDM) and the recognition-primed decision-making (RPD) model. This cognitive model describe how experts working in high-risk, high-stress environments make safety-critical decisions under uncertainty and time pressure. For power system operators, the mental simulations involved in the traditional RPD model are supplemented by physics-based simulations using numerical tools, such as RTCA, to improve situational awareness and effectiveness of control actions. Next, a generic workflow is introduced to describe operator decision making for running RTCA tools and responding to system violations on a pre-contingent basis. The types of analysis performed and control actions chosen by power system operators are described in detail. The overall high-level workflow is then expanded in subsequent sections, with special attention given to high-voltage violations, low-voltage violations, and thermal overloads. Each type of violation is described in detail, with explanations of common causes, impacts on equipment and customers, and mitigation strategies. An additional workflow diagram is provided for each type of violation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Spatiotemporal Adaptive Passive Direct Air Capture

Carbon Collect Inc., along with Arizona State University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), PM Group, and Trimeric Corporation, completed an initial design of a commercial-scale, passive direct air capture (DAC) system termed “carbon trees” that will capture, separate, and store at least 100,000 tonnes/year of carbon dioxide (CO2) from air (net basis). Passive DAC is unique among DAC technologies in that passive air delivery by wind avoids the energy penalty of forced convection. Carbon Collect Inc.’s sorbent-agnostic approach offers the flexibility to choose sorbents for a wide range of climates. A combination of steam, low-grade heat, and vacuum releases the CO2 from the sorbent, which is extracted from the chamber and purified and compressed for geological storage. A commercial carbon tree forest combines the output of several thousand trees for compression and purification with high heat and energy integration. The project team prepared an initial engineering design package for each of three geographically diverse host sites throughout the United States to better understand the effect of local/regional ambient conditions on DAC system performance and project costs. A techno-economic analysis, life cycle analysis, business case analysis, and an environmental, health, and safety risks assessment were also completed for each of the three geographically diverse host sites.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ash Fouling Free Regenerative Air Preheater for Deep Cyclic Operation

The University of Kentucky (UKy) project titled “Ash Fouling Free Regenerative Air Preheater for Deep Cyclic Operation”, DE-FE0031757, was conducted from 8/15/2019 to 8/14/2024 in two Budget Periods. Other participants included PPL Corporation and Black Dragon Double Boiler. The overall goal was to investigate the proposed self-cleaning technology to achieve ash fouling free air preheater operation in a coal-fired power plant, especially during deep cycling. All project deliverables, milestones, and success criteria were met. UKy obtained the following scientific findings. • Temporary and periodic high temperature of heating elements (450 ~ 500 °F) can prevent ash accumulation and maintain air preheater free of clogging. • The ash samples analysis and unit operation provide solid evidence of ABS formed during low load with SCR ammonia slip being the major cause of ash accumulation, and air preheater clogging can be prevented by raising the heating element temperature up to 450 °F~ 500 °F at which ABS is decomposed. • In-situ self-cleaning can be controlled by monitoring temperature and/or presetting fixed number of cleanings per day. Both approaches in pilot testing show positive results for maintaining an ash free state for the air preheater. • Temperature criteria (cold end or gas outlet temperature) for entering self-cleaning service is critical to balance the number of cleaning cycles with maintaining the ash level. • Temperature criteria (cold end or gas outlet temperature) for exiting self-cleaning service is critical to balance the duration of the cleaning cycles with maintaining the ash level.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Lignite-Derived Carbon Materials for Lithium-Ion Battery Anodes

This project involved collaboration between the University of North Dakota (UND) College of Engineering & Mines, Clean Republic, LLC (CR), and the North American Coal Corporation (NACoal) to develop advanced LIBs anodes from lignite-derived carbon materials. The overall goal of the project was to develop advanced anode materials for LIBs from lignite-derived carbon feedstocks.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Evaluating a Commercial Dynamic Line Rating Software with the National PMU Dataset

To accelerate the development of data-driven applications for power systems, the Department of Energy (DOE) supported the collection and curation of a synchrophasor dataset spanning two years of observations from transmission utilities across the US. This National PMU Dataset (NPDS) was anonymized and distributed to awardees of a DOE research grant under nondisclosure agreements (NDAs) but has also been retained at PNNL to enable further research. Agreements with data contributors prevent the data from being shared outside the organization. However, establishing a blind research validation methodology is envisioned to maximize the value proposition of the NPDS. In this validation strategy, researchers may share algorithms/software (potentially as executables to protect intellectual property) with PNNL, and PNNL will share feedback about the software’s performance on subsets of the NPDS. Such a blind methodology ensures that sensitive information about critical infrastructure remains protected, but the value of the NPDS can be extended to research beyond PNNL. Through iterative feedback, the algorithms may be tweaked to address real-world artifacts. As the NPDS data is temporally and geographically diverse, it may capture features absent in smaller datasets used during the development of the algorithm under test. This report presents lessons learned from applying the blind validation methodology to LineID™, a synchrophasor-based dynamic line rating software developed by Topolonet Corporation. Improvements made to the software through iterative feedback, limitations of the validation methodology, as well as how the limitations of the NPDS affected the evaluation process are discussed. Observations indicate that the proposed validation methodology can be valuable for evaluating other tools in the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

2024 Geothermal Rising Conference Poster

As part of a U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Office funding opportunity, Geysers Power Company, LLC, an indirect subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, partnered with Sandia National Labs, EGI at the University of Utah, and Texas A&M University to demonstrate increased drilling performance at The Geysers Geothermal Field. The performance target in the drilling demonstrations is at least a 25% improvement in rates of penetration with increased time on bottom for each bit. The planned drilling demonstrations are being conducted as part of an existing drilling campaign intended to enhance reservoir utilization. A major goal of the project is to assess the effectiveness of implementing mechanical specific energy (MSE) and drilling dysfunction diagnosis and remediation in these challenging environments, as well as alternate bit technologies. The first demonstration well has been completed, with a total of 15 PDC bit runs in the 17.5”, 12.25” and 8.5” sections. Initial analysis shows ROP gains in all three hole sections, especially in the 17.5” and 12.25” sections, compared with conventional roller cone bit runs in the demonstration well and offset wells. However in the 8.5” hole, wear and damage to the PDC bits resulted in relatively short bit runs. Analysis is underway to take advantage of the positive results and remediate the challenges.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Support of the Massachusetts — NREL Wind Technology Testing Center (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

Under the shared-resources CRADA agreement, NREL will collaborate with the Massachusetts Technology Park Corporation, d/b/a Massachusetts Technology Collaborative (MTC), in its efforts to design, construct, and operate the Massachusetts-NREL Wind Technology Testing Center (WTTC), which is an advanced blade testing facility capable of testing blades up to at least 70 meters in length. The WTTC building will be owned and the facility operated by the MTC. In the CRADA, NREL agrees to provide certain capital equipment and certain NREL employees at the WTTC facility for training, commissioning, and continued technical assistance. In addition, NREL will provide one or more Laboratory staff to serve on any WTTC advisory committee, a no-cost license of the NREL blade-resonance fatigue testing technology (NREL Testing IP) and training to MA staff at the NREL blade test facilities in Colorado. MTC will provide all other resources necessary to design, construct, and operate the WTTC.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Offline Power Systems Applications Enabled by Phasor Measurement Units: Technical Assistance to the Power Sectors of Southeast Asia

This report provides a brief overview of several offline (non-real-time) applications facilitated by high-resolution time-synchronized measurements recorded by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The high reporting rate and time-synchronization of PMU records provide a detailed view of power system dynamics, enabling electric utilities to obtain a better understanding of their systems. In this report, the following applications have been reviewed: Power plant model validation, System model validation, Ringdown oscillation analysis, Frequency response analysis, Postmortem analysis of disturbance events Along with a brief technical background of the applications above, applicable North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) standards have been discussed, and examples of implementation in North American organizations have been provided. Implementing several of the discussed applications may need a preliminary stage of data gathering from multiple entities, and several frameworks and process flows have been formulated by organizations around the world for this purpose. However, the data-gathering stage has not been considered in the scope of the present report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Resilient Energy Delivery and Control Systems (REDCS) (Final Technical Report)

US critical infrastructure is increasingly the target of cyberattacks, where disturbances could cause considerable damage and disruption. To help provide a new layer of cyber-physical protection for one key energy delivery system, natural gas pipelines, GE Vernova Advanced Research along with partners Florida State University and Intel Corporation created an innovative technology called "Resilient Energy Delivery and Control Systems" (REDCS). This cybersecurity package helps detect anomalies caused by cyberattacks, isolate the subsystem being impacted by the attack, and provide functions that can allow for resiliency – giving better situational awareness to the operators and cybersecurity specialists or in the future perform closed loop control for continued operation while compromised.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Highly Efficient Regeneration Module for Carbon Capture Systems in NGCC Applications

The objective of this project is to design, fabricate, and test a highly efficient regeneration module capable of providing an ultra-lean absorption solution that is required for capturing CO 2 from dilute sources at 95% or better efficiency. By integrating this advanced regenerator module with SRI International’s Mixed Salt Process (MSP) absorption modules, SRI expects to demonstrate significant progress toward a reduction in cost of capture versus the DOE reference natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant with carbon capture. SRI designed, built, and tested an advanced stripper to enhance the performance of SRI’s MSP for CO 2 capture – a transformational ammonia-based solvent technology – for natural gas (NG) power sources. The testing of the advanced stripper for MSP was conducted at an SRI site using a simulated flue gas stream equivalent to about 10 kWe. The research work included modeling of the advanced stripper and integrating it with the MSP absorbers; studying the strategies for producing very highly alkaline lean solvent with minimized emissions; operating the stripper with advanced heat integration to improve process efficiencies; and collecting critically important data for a detailed techno-economic analysis (TEA). The project tasks were designed to address concerns relating to scale-up and integration of the technology to NG power plants—more specifically, to maximize the carbon capture efficiency achievable with MSP and identify pathways to achieve higher capture efficiencies and ultimately zero net carbon emissions. SRI teamed up with a process modeling company (OLI Systems), a process and chemical engineering company (Trimeric Corporation), and a cost-sharing commercial partner (Baker-Hughes – a leading multinational company that designs, manufactures, and services transformative energy technologies) to execute the project. The research findings will accelerate the MSP development and pave the way for the technology to reach the DOE’s goal, and ultimately commercialization of the MSP technology for low-cost CO 2 capture from NGCC flue gas and other dilute CO 2 sources.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Nested Pebble Bed Blanket (NesPeB)

Recent advances in magnetic confinement fusion technology have attracted billions of dollars of investments in startups from venture capitals and corporations, resulting in the development of devices aiming to demonstrate net energy gain in a self-heated burning plasma, such as SPARC (under construction) and others. However, future fusion power plants must operate in regimes that will require technologies far beyond current experience. According to a National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine report, to have nuclear fusion power plants contributing in a timely manner to the planned reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a pilot plant should be built by 2035, and it should demonstrate fusion power production and the performance of the tritium fuel system (requiring a high enough tritium breeding) by 2040. A recognized key technology gap by [26] is the fusion first wall and blanket since no current blanket concept is considered satisfactory or has been built and proven. The first wall and blanket in magnetic fusion reactors form a vital and complex system, as it must satisfy different functions such as power extraction, tritium breeding, plasma containment, radiation shielding, and safety. The list of design requirements is even longer: high enough tritium production for fusion self-sufficiency, low material activation, decay heat and shutdown dose rates, high thermal efficiency, high-capacity factor, high magnets-divertor-vacuum vessel-first wall life, low corrosion, low cost, and intrinsically safe (requiring minimal licensing). Despite fifty-plus years of research, the first wall and blanket concepts proposed suffer from fundamental technical problems and immaturity (TRL=2-3) that jeopardize the timely delivery of a commercial fusion power plant. A fusion first-wall blanket has never been built nor tested, and a "winning", practical functioning design requires enough engineering margins (high enough tritium breeding considering the uncertainty, etc.), manufacturing simplicity, ease of continuous operation, maintenance, and low cost. A new, groundbreaking blanket concept called "Nested Pebble Bed Blanket" (NesPeB) was developed at ORNL under the successful ARPA-E GAMOW FERMI project (patent application allowed by the USPTO). The NesPeB blanket concept addresses current blanket concepts' shortcomings and technical immaturity, paving the way for accelerated delivery of fusion power plants. NesPeB is based on nested pebbles, which are binary-sized lithium-ceramic pebbles enclosed in "Beryllide" perforated and coated spherical shells, which are also binary-sized, stacked on top of each other, forming a "bed" and cooled by Nitrogen gas also "sweeping" the Helium and Tritium generated by the neutron irradiation of Lithium; the vacuum vessel plasma facing material is Molybdenum-96 and -97 with the first wall cooled by Helium while the divertor armor is made of Tungsten. The simulations of the NesPeB blanket using Fusion Reactors Models Integrator (FERMI) are encouraging as they estimate a tritium breeding ratio (TBR) greater than 1.2 using natural Lithium, acceptable pressure drop, and excellent heat transfer properties. Furthermore, the NesPeB blanket is not limited by magneto-hydro-dynamics (MHD) effects, is designed for online refueling, relies on existing tritium extraction technologies, has a simple construction, and limits the corrosion and chemical reactivity problems. NesPeB has the potential to be transformational and disruptive since it can solve all the main, challenging technical problems of fusion device blankets and accelerate a pilot plant delivery for 10 or more years.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

High Performance (R-10/inch) Clay-Cellulose-Silica Nanopore Insulation Board For New and Retrofit Buildings (Final Scientific Report)

The objective of Liatris’s 3-year DOE BENEFIT project was to develop and validate a high-performance, lightweight, aerogel-based insulation board of ≥R-10/inch at a cost of ≤$\$$1.50 per board foot using non-flammable inorganic nanocomposites. We have summarized each yearly goal below: Year 1 – Ambient dried inorganic/organic nanocomposite, R-6/inch Year 2 – Processing efficiency and cost down, R-8/inch at $\$$2.0/board-ft Year 3 – Scale up to continuous, pilot production of R-10 at ≤ $\$$1.50/board-ft Over the course of the project period, Liatris has successfully met or exceeded all of the goals outlined above. The project scope over 3 years was extensive, covering method development of ambient dried silica aerogels in Budget Period 1, process formulation and R-value improvement in Budget Period 2, and composite scale up with corporate partners in Budget Period 3. Over the course of the project Liatris has been able to progressively improve the thermal resistance properties from about R-6/in to > R-11/in, 2-3X the performance of conventional insulation products.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

CalCharge CRADA000008852 Master Agreement Amendment 1, Battery Consortium – Proprietary Activities

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) is partnering with the California Clean Energy Fund to launch CalCharge, an energy storage innovation accelerator, comprised of emerging and established California companies and related organizations developing battery technologies for the electric/hybrid vehicle transportation, the electric grid and consumer electronics markets. The vision of CalCharge is to accelerate the pace of technology innovation, business growth, and cluster development. Calcharge programs will deliver technology acceleration and technical expertise to the energy storage industry, as well as policy and market development support to strengthen the regional economy. LBNL shall collaborate with CalCharge members on the analysis and testing of battery and energy storage technologies. LBNL’s work will include analysis and testing of external design, examination of materials and components either separately or as a whole, and providing data and observations resulting from each collaboration. LBNL shall maintain and provide access to LBNL specialized facilities for research activities performed by or for CalCharge members. In addition, LBNL will provide expertise for short-term consultation, interpretation of testing data, or to clarify technical obstacles if requested by a Member. Over this time frame, Calcharge partnered with several start-ups to provide analytical resources. Those companies include Halotechnics, ZAF Energy Systems, Volkswagen Group of America, Toyota Motor Corporation, and Ensor Inc.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Design of Novel Hot Gas Component for Gas Turbine Engines Enabled by Materials and Additive Manufacturing Process Development

This CRADA project was the result of a project award under FOA-DOE-0001980. The overarching FOA project team consisted of researchers from Carpenter Technology Corporation (CTC), Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), Pennsylvania State University (PSU), University of California-Santa Barbara (UCSB), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Evaluations were conducted on two high-γ’ superalloys that were designed by CTC and the UCSB. One alloy named GammaPrint-700 (GP-700) is a cobalt-base superalloy. The other alloy named GammaPrint-1100 (GP-1100) is a nickel-base (Ni-base) superalloy. PSU provided expertise and experimental testing of the thermal performance of AM micro-cooling architectures. ORNL provided expertise with the AM superalloy materials characterization and AM processing science. Solar provided turbine component design expertise. The focus of this CRADA report is to document the efforts between ORNL and CTC towards the development of superalloys designed for AM. The project goal was to use an AM processable high-temperature superalloy and design for Additive Manufacturing (DfAM) techniques to design an efficient turbine component (i.e. a turbine tip shoe) with enhanced cooling features that can only be fabricated through additive manufacturing (AM). The efficiencies of existing combined heat and power (CHP) engines are capped by both component design and materials limitations. However, AM of a tip shoe component from a γ’strengthened superalloy offers the design flexibility to increase the efficiency and power of an industrial gas turbine. This project brought about advancements in the DfAM tip shoe design space and in the area of high temperature superalloys processable through laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) AM. State of art computation design tools were utilized to optimize unique cooling features into a tip shoe component design. A two-prong materials development approach was taken to support development of the AM tip shoe geometry. The first approach centered on investigating the processability and the appropriate process science for the industry standard high-γ’ nickel-base (Ni-base) superalloy Mar-M247. This superalloy is typically cast and considered non-weldable by traditional welding standards. In the course of this work, the alloy was not deemed feasible for process scale-up due to significant cracking issues during printing. The second approach focused on the development and evaluation of a novel cobalt-base superalloy, GammaPrint™-700 (GP-700 and a Ni-base superalloy, GammaPrint™-1100 (GP-1100) designed to mitigate the significant AM processing issues with Mar-M247. The processability of these two alloys were investigated through electron beam melting (EBM) binder-jet AM (BJAM), and LPBF as a risk mitigation for manufacturability. To be considered a candidate material for down-selection to proceed to full-scale AM tip shoe engine testing trials, the high temperature creep rupture strength was required to achieve at a minimum, a Larsen Miller Parameter (LMP) increase of 10.9% over the baseline material LPBF AM Hastelloy X.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Design of Novel Hot Gas Component for Gas Turbine Engines Enabled by Materials and Additive Manufacturing Process Development

This CRADA project was the result of a project award under FOA-DOE-0001980. The overarching FOA project team consisted of researchers from Carpenter Technology Corporation (CTC), Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), Pennsylvania State University (PSU), University of California-Santa Barbara (UCSB), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Evaluations were conducted on two high-γ’ superalloys that were designed by CTC and the UCSB. One alloy named GammaPrint-700 (GP-700) is a cobalt-base superalloy. The other alloy named GammaPrint-1100 (GP-1100) is a nickel-base (Ni-base) superalloy. PSU provided expertise and experimental testing of the thermal performance of AM micro-cooling architectures. ORNL provided expertise with the AM superalloy materials characterization and AM processing science. Solar provided turbine component design expertise. The focus of this CRADA report is to document the efforts between ORNL and CTC towards the development of superalloys designed for AM. The project goal was to use an AM processable high-temperature superalloy and design for Additive Manufacturing (DfAM) techniques to design an efficient turbine component (i.e. a turbine tip shoe) with enhanced cooling features that can only be fabricated through additive manufacturing (AM). The efficiencies of existing combined heat and power (CHP) engines are capped by both component design and materials limitations. However, AM of a tip shoe component from a γ’strengthened superalloy offers the design flexibility to increase the efficiency and power of an industrial gas turbine. This project brought about advancements in the DfAM tip shoe design space and in the area of high temperature superalloys processable through laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) AM. State of art computation design tools were utilized to optimize unique cooling features into a tip shoe component design. A two-prong materials development approach was taken to support development of the AM tip shoe geometry. The first approach centered on investigating the processability and the appropriate process science for the industry standard high-γ’ nickel-base (Ni-base) superalloy Mar-M247. This superalloy is typically cast and considered non-weldable by traditional welding standards. In the course of this work, the alloy was not deemed feasible for process scale-up due to significant cracking issues during printing. The second approach focused on the development and evaluation of a novel cobalt-base superalloy, GammaPrint™-700 (GP-700 and a Ni-base superalloy, GammaPrint™-1100 (GP-1100) designed to mitigate the significant AM processing issues with Mar-M247. The processability of these two alloys were investigated through electron beam melting (EBM) binder-jet AM (BJAM), and LPBF as a risk mitigation for manufacturability. To be considered a candidate material for down-selection to proceed to fullscale AM tip shoe engine testing trials, the high temperature creep rupture strength was required to achieve at a minimum, a Larsen Miller Parameter (LMP) increase of 10.9% over the baseline material LPBF AM Hastelloy X.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Initial Mobility Analysis for ORNL VA-EDH Synthetic Populations

Travel burdens are a major barrier to healthcare access among US Veteran patient populations, particularly those residing in rural areas. Spatial accessibility to points of care for US Veteran populations is commonly assessed in two ways. The first approach uses open data from the US Census to represent collective travel burdens, for example the distance between population-weighted census tract centroids and VHA points of care. The second approach uses restricted-access VHA patient data to measure travel costs (e.g., distance, time) for accessing points of care with respect to geolocated patient addresses and real or approximated transportation networks. While the advantage of the open data approach lies in its reproducibility, it has notable limitations in its tendency to infer individual travel behavior from aggregate population characteristics, a problem known as ecological fallacy. Conversely, while the patient data approach is able to account for individual travel behavior, its ability to account for localized access disparities (e.g., a neighborhood with exceptionally high transportation costs) and patient demographics is limited as protecting individual patient data requires their storage in closed systems with limited capacity for adequately modeling real-world travel patterns or for supplementing patient attributes. Additionally, the patient data approach cannot account for veterans who are not enrolled in the VHA system but who may be eligible for care. These challenges limit the ability to perform “what if” analyses on the effects of place-specific interventions on veteran populations with high access barriers to healthcare. To address these challenges, we explore the application of realistic synthetic populations to examine travel burdens and spatial accessibility issues among veteran patient populations. Synthetic populations provide a virtual, individually-resolved and cross-sectional representation of the veteran patient population that enables investigation of spatial access to points of care in ways in which aggregate data and patient data do not. First, synthetic populations allow one to directly assess how individuals access points of care, from synthesized residential locations to outpatient facilities on real-world transportation networks. Modeling access to points of care at the individual scale addresses the ecological fallacy problem associated with using aggregated census data to represent veteran populations and patterns of movement. Second, synthetic populations provide a means of completely representing an area’s veteran population using only publicly available, anonymized census microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) to ensure the privacy of real-world individuals. Generating synthetic populations from the ACS also expands descriptive characteristics beyond what patient data typically offers to include socio-demographic, economic, housing, and mobility attributes. More detailed profiles of both VHA patient populations and veterans not enrolled in the VA system will provide a comprehensive picture of groups that may benefit from interventions or outreach. As an initial exercise for using synthetic populations to measure veteran travel burdens to VA care, we apply Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) UrbanPop capability to generate a series of synthetic VHA patient populations for 9 Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISN) market areas in 9 Census Divisions across the continental United States, which are listed in Table 1. We use UrbanPop to produce synthetic populations for the VISN markets selected for each US Census Division, then assign VA outpatient clinic destinations to synthetic VHA patients based on travel about each VISN market’s road network. To demonstrate using the synthetic populations to evaluate healthcare travel burdens, we compare the time-based impedance between simulated home locations and VA outpatient clinics in each VISN market. We then perform validation exercises on the synthetic populations with respect to neighborhood (block group) demographic composition as well as patient mobility, comparing aggregate origin-destination statistics for the synthetic population to outpatient visits available in restricted patient data from the VA’s Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Power Market: 2023 Data

Voluntary green power, for this report, refers to renewable energy procurement by retail electricity customers above what is otherwise provided by load-serving entities. This report is part of an annual series of reports synthesizing trends in the U.S. voluntary green power market. In 2023, about 9.7 million retail electricity customers procured about 319 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of voluntary green power (Figure ES-1), representing a 17% increase over sales in 2022. Estimated voluntary green power market sales represented about 44% of non-hydropower renewable energy sales and about 8% of all U.S. retail electricity sales in 2023. Most of the remainder of U.S. renewable energy sales reflects renewable energy procured by load-serving entities to comply with state renewable energy mandates, also known as compliance-based procurement. The U.S. voluntary green power market is undergoing a clear shift toward long-term contracts, driven primarily by increasingly ambitious corporate renewable energy procurement targets.

2023↗