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Interannual variability versus seasonal variability in the tropical Atlantic

Monthly fields of sea surface temperature and wind stress for the tropical Atlantic are constructed for January 1964 to December 1979. Inside the Gulf of Guinea the amplitude of the seasonal variability of SST ranges between 2.5 and 4 times greater than the interannual variability. In the remainder of the equatorial Atlantic this measure is less than 2. Standard deviations of wind stress anomalies indicate that, except near the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the magnitude of interannual fluctuations is greater than that of seasonal ones. The joint analyses of these SST and wind stress fields indicate the largest positive SST anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea (July, 1968) was immediately preceded by the only reversal of the trade winds west along the equator.

Picaut, J.↗

Evaluating and Countering the Insider Threat to the Radioactive Source Supply Chain

The modern supply chain is a global enterprise and little drove this home more than the global COVID-19 pandemic which sent economic shockwaves throughout the world. Many goods became scarce, as products were delayed, in limited supply, or simply not available. The suddenly diminished supply collided with still high demand and led to greatly increased costs. This was particularly true for the radioactive source supply chain. The pandemic introduced extensive delays for construction projects, slowed the transport of radiological materials to facilities, interrupted treatment deliveries, and impaired the mobility of contractors across the industry. All of these concerns not only adversely affected the economy, but also impacted the safety and security of radiological material, potentially raising national security concerns. The vulnerability of the supply chain, a critical element in an increasingly interconnected world, was exposed. One example that challenged the adaptive capacity of the overall supply chain is the Ever Given container ship, which became stuck in the Suez Canal in 2020. This accident immediately shut down shipments that accounted for 12% of global trade, with long-term impacts estimated to be much larger. Developing the ability to anticipate and react in real-time to sudden changes has quickly become a necessity, particularly in industries that deal with the transport of hazardous material. The reaction to these dramatic incidents was to largely focus attention and resources on protecting the supply chain from external threats. However, the threat to the radioactive material supply chain from insiders intimately involved in the process may be even greater and remains a blind spot that requires increased attention. Recent events revealed the blueprint for targeting and disrupting that supply chain, so the potential for a malicious insider—or a manipulated, unwitting insider—to take advantage of this vulnerability is elevated, creating security concerns for radiological industries. This paper examines and analyzes the potential insider threat to the radioactive source supply chain and recommends steps to take to counter this possibility.

Kinney, Justin↗

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) concept definition study (Exhibit D). Volume 4: Operations analyses

Using a coplanar, end-mounted antenna as a baseline, various configuration trades were performed to select a preferred solid state concept. The increase in efficiency that could be realized by use of multi bandgap solar cells, either with klystron or solid state antenna was evaluated. Satellite configurations were developed to exploit the sandwich antenna concept wherein solar cells are located on one side of the antenna panel and solid state dc/RF converters on the other side. These concepts entailed various primary and secondary reflector arrangements for directing solar energy to the solar cell side of the antenna with higher concentration ratios than used on the coplanar configurations. Operations analysis included development of a satellite construction scenario, a concept for the SCB, a top-level satellite construction operation, construction operation, construction timelines and crew sizes, mass flows to orbit, and a satellite maintenance scenario. The list of materials required for satellite construction was updated to identify significant differences relevant to the solid state satellite concept. Means of decommissioning satellites at the end of their design life were studied.

Hanley, G. M.↗

The Spacecraft Materials Selector: An Artificial Intelligence System for Preliminary Design Trade Studies, Materials Assessments, and Estimates of Environments Present

Institutions need ways to retain valuable information even as experienced individuals leave an organization. Modern electronic systems have enough capacity to retain large quantities of information that can mitigate the loss of experience. Performance information for long-term space applications is relatively scarce and specific information (typically held by a few individuals within a single project) is often rather narrowly distributed. Spacecraft operate under severe conditions and the consequences of hardware and/or system failures, in terms of cost, loss of information, and time required to replace the loss, are extreme. These risk factors place a premium on appropriate choice of materials and components for space applications. An expert system is a very cost-effective method for sharing valuable and scarce information about spacecraft performance. Boeing has an artificial intelligence software package, called the Boeing Expert System Tool (BEST), to construct and operate knowledge bases to selectively recall and distribute information about specific subjects. A specific knowledge base to evaluate the on-orbit performance of selected materials on spacecraft has been developed under contract to the NASA SEE program. The performance capabilities of the Spacecraft Materials Selector (SMS) knowledge base are described. The knowledge base is a backward-chaining, rule-based system. The user answers a sequence of questions, and the expert system provides estimates of optical and mechanical performance of selected materials under specific environmental conditions. The initial operating capability of the system will include data for Kapton, silverized Teflon, selected paints, silicone-based materials, and certain metals. For situations where a mission profile (launch date, orbital parameters, mission duration, spacecraft orientation) is not precisely defined, the knowledge base still attempts to provide qualitative observations about materials performance and likely exposures. Prior to the NASA contract, a knowledge base, the Spacecraft Environments Assistant (SEA,) was initially developed by Boeing to estimate the environmental factors important for a specific spacecraft mission profile. The NASA SEE program has funded specific enhancements to the capability of this knowledge base. The SEA qualitatively identifies over 25 environmental factors that may influence the performance of a spacecraft during its operational lifetime. For cases where sufficiently detailed answers are provided to questions asked by the knowledge base, atomic oxygen fluence levels, proton and/or electron fluence and dose levels, and solar exposure hours are calculated. The SMS knowledge base incorporates the previously developed SEA knowledge base. A case history for previous flight experiment will be shown as an example, and capabilities and limitations of the system will be discussed.

Pippin, H. G.↗

Improved Spacecraft Materials for Radiation Protection

Methods by which radiation shielding is optimized need to be developed and materials of improved shielding characteristics identified and validated. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are very penetrating and the energy absorbed by the astronaut behind the shield is nearly independent of shield composition and even the shield thickness. However, the mix of particles in the transmitted beam changes rapidly with shield material composition and thickness. This results in part from the breakup of the high-energy heavy ions of the GCR which make contributions to biological effects out of proportion to their deposited energy. So the mixture of particles in the radiation field changes with shielding and the control of risk contributions from dominant particle types is critical to reducing the hazard to the astronaut. The risk of biological injury for a given particle type depends on the type of biological effect and is specific to cell or tissue type. Thus, one is faced with choosing materials which may protect a given tissue against a given effect but leave unchanged or even increase the risk of other effects in the same tissue or increase the risks to other adjacent tissues of a different type in the same individual. The optimization of shield composition will then be tied to a specific tissue and risk to that tissue. Such peculiarities arise from the complicated mixture of particles, the nature of their biological response, and the details of their interaction with material constituents. Aside from the understanding of the biological response to specific components, one also needs an accurate understanding of the radiation emerging from the shield material. This latter subject has been a principal element of this project. In the past ten years our understanding of space radiation interactions with materials has changed radically, with a large impact on shield design. For example, the NCRP estimated that only 2 g/sq cm. of aluminum would be required to meet the annual 500 mSv limit for the exposure of the blood forming organs (this limit is strictly for LEO but can be used as a guideline for the Mars mission analysis). The current estimates require aluminum shield thicknesses above 50 g/sq cm., which is impractical. In such a heavily shielded vehicle, the neutrons produced throughout the vehicle also contribute significantly to the exposure and this demands greater care in describing the angular dependence of secondary particle production processes. As such the continued testing of databases and transport procedures in laboratory and spaceflight experiments has continued. This has been the focus of much of the last year's activity and has resulted in improved neutron prediction capability. These new methods have also improved our understanding of the surface environment of Mars. The Mars 2003 NRA HEDS related surface science requirements were driven by the need to validate predictions on the upward flux of neutrons produced in the Martian regolith and bedrock made by the codes developed under this project. The codes used in the surface environment definition are also being used to look at in situ resources for the development of construction material for Martian surface facilities. For example, synthesis of polyimides and polyethylene as binders of regolith for developing basic structural elements has been studied and targets built for accelerator beam testing of radiation shielding properties. Preliminary mechanical tests have also been promising. Improved spacecraft materials have been identified (using the criteria reported by this project at the last conference) as potentially important for future shielding materials. These are liquid hydrogen, hydrogenated nanofibers, liquid methane, LiH, Polyethylene, Polysulfone, and Polyetherimide (in order of decreasing shield performance). Some of the materials are multifunctional and are required for other onboard systems. We are currently preparing software for trade studies with these materials relative to the Mars Reference Mission as required in the project's final year.

Wilson, John W.↗

Two-Tower Quantum Matrix Chain Multiplication: Trading Qubits for Depth

Matrix chain multiplication -- computing $\mathcal{W} = M^{(0)}\cdots M^{(K-1)}$ where $M^{(k)} \in \mathbb{R}^{P_k \times P_{k+1}}$-- arises in scientific computing, machine learning, and graph analysis. Despite the importance of this problem, for chains of distinct matrices, the classical number of operations grows linearly with the chain length $K$ and polynomially in the matrix dimensions. We present \emph{Two-Tower Matrix Multiplication}, a quantum subroutine that encodes the product $\mathcal{W}$ of the $K$ matrices into a quantum state in circuit depth $\mathcal{O}(\max_{k} \mathrm{polylog} (P_k P_{k+1}))$, which is independent of~$K$ within the QRAM-based state-preparation model, whereas the qubit count is $\mathcal{O}\bigl(\sum_{k} \log P_k \bigr)$; the total gate count remains linear in $K$, so the gain is in the circuit depth. The construction interleaves state-preparation operators across two layers; within each layer, all operators act on disjoint registers and execute in parallel. This subroutine can be specialized for the chain-vector case, which computes the product of $K-1$ matrices applied to a vector. We prove the correctness of the subroutine for all $K$ and provide two implementations using the Qiskit and QCLAB frameworks. The subroutine is applicable to any downstream quantum algorithm that operates on a matrix encoded in the statevector, including norm estimation, graph-matrix powers, linear system solving, and quantum machine learning kernels.

Antonioli, Giacomo [Pisa U.] (ORCID:00090000668703↗

Experimental Optimization of a Free-to-Rotate Wing for Small UAS

This paper discusses an experimental investigation conducted to optimize a free-to-rotate wing for use on a small unmanned aircraft system (UAS). Although free-to-rotate wings have been used for decades on various small UAS and small manned aircraft, little is known about how to optimize these unusual wings for a specific application. The paper discusses some of the design rationale of the basic wing. In addition, three main parameters were selected for "optimization", wing camber, wing pivot location, and wing center of gravity (c.g.) location. A small apparatus was constructed to enable some simple experimental analysis of these parameters. A design-of-experiment series of tests were first conducted to discern which of the main optimization parameters were most likely to have the greatest impact on the outputs of interest, namely, some measure of "stability", some measure of the lift being generated at the neutral position, and how quickly the wing "recovers" from an upset. A second set of tests were conducted to develop a response-surface numerical representation of these outputs as functions of the three primary inputs. The response surface numerical representations are then used to develop an "optimum" within the trade space investigated. The results of the optimization are then tested experimentally to validate the predictions.

Logan, Michael J.↗

Carbon Capture, Transport, And Storage (CTS) Cost Modeling Of The Onshore Gulf Coast

The onshore Gulf of Mexico region presents significant opportunities for CO2 capture, transport, and storage due to its numerous CO2 sources, such as power plants, refineries, and its substantial CO2 storage potential. However, operators face critical decisions in designing an efficient and cost-effective CO2 pipeline network. This study examines the economic implications of two primary strategies: constructing a trunkline with excess initial capacity versus developing dedicated pipelines incrementally as new CO2 sources come online. Building a trunkline first offers the advantage of future-proofing the network, allowing for the accommodation of increased CO2 volumes from various sources over time. However, this approach incurs higher upfront costs and risks underutilizing the transport capacity in the initial stages, potentially resulting in economic inefficiencies. Conversely, constructing dedicated pipelines for each new CO2 source as it becomes operational may avoid the initial overcapacity issue but fails to capitalize on the economies of scale. This could lead to higher overall costs due to the duplication of infrastructure and increased complexity in network management. This research employs a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, integrating factors such as capital expenditure, operational costs, projected CO2 volumes, and potential economies of scale. Through this analysis, we aim to provide operators with insights into the most economically viable strategy for CO2 pipeline network design in the region. The findings underscore the importance of strategic planning and highlight the trade-offs between immediate capacity utilization and long-term cost savings, ultimately guiding stakeholders towards informed decision-making in the development of CO2 transport infrastructure. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Shih, Chung Yan↗

Advanced Lightweight Metallic Fuselage Project Manufacturing Trade Study

Recent advances in large-scale flow forming of integrally stiffened cylinders (ISCs) have motivated evaluation of available technologies for rapid manufacturing of metallic fuselages. The current state-of-the-art in flow forming of ISCs produces 10-ft. diameter, 5-ft. long barrels with integral longitudinal blade stiffeners, and these single-piece ISCs are produced in approximately 1.5 hours. While other manufacturing processes are required to incorporate additional structural elements (ASE) such as circumferential ring frames, reinforcements around window and door cut-outs, and floors to the ISCs to complete the fuselage structure, flow forming technology may assist the aerospace industry in meeting manufacturing rate demands. In order to evaluate this technology, a fuselage manufacturing demonstration article (MDA) fabricated from two ISCs is scheduled for fabrication and delivery to NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) by the end of 2022. In this study, eight manufacturing technologies were assessed to downselect candidate manufacturing processes for adding ASE to complete the MDA. A literature review and evaluation of contractor-produced panels covering a spectrum of welding and additive manufacturing (AM) processes were conducted at NASA LaRC. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to evaluate figures of merit (FOMs) for selecting manufacturing process(es) to integrate ASE with the ISCs to form a fuselage MDA. The AHP results revealed that scalability, structural performance, and distortion control were the most valued criteria for downselecting the manufacturing process to construct the internal stiffening structures. Based on the FOMs, this study concluded that a welding process is best suited for integrating the majority of the ASE, namely the circumferential ring frames. All of the welding processes received higher scores than AM processes due to higher maturity, higher structural performance, fewer post-processing requirements in machining and heat treating, and faster deposition rates. Among the welding processes, cold metal transfer (CMT) welding was ranked the most favorable process for assembling the MDA, with the other welding processes (laser welding (LW), friction stir welding (FSW), and refill friction stir spot welding (RFSSW)) scoring slightly lower. This was a consequence of the perceived maturity of the CMT welding process and its relatively high structural performance and low distortion resulting from the low heat input. Among the AM processes, CMT AM showed the greatest promise due to benefits derived from its scalability, lower 1st order process complexity, and low distortion. The AM processes may have potential for select applications, such as adding structural reinforcements around window and door cut-outs, but are not considered optimal for integrating the entire MDA.

Manufacturing↗

Life-Cycle Analysis of Residential Windows Retrofits: Net GHG Emission Reduction and Payback Periods

Windows are a critical envelope component that plays an important role in the overall performance and environmental impact of a building life cycle. These implications can be embedded in the window lifecycle related to its design, manufacturing, raw materials and transportation, performance during the building’s use (operational), replacements, maintenance and end-of-life. Windows may impact 25% of the heating and cooling energy use, 10% of total building energy use and 45% of the envelope heat transfer (Harris 2022). The impacts of windows on the energy consumption of buildings have been extensively discussed, however, its embodied life-cycle impacts, such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the trade-offs between the embodied and its operational emissions are less explored. Understanding the life cycle impacts of windows may subsidize decision making process and inform the development of emerging windows technologies. BTO’s Windows Program has played an important role to increase the adoption of emerging technologies as high-performance windows in the U.S. (Harris 2022) and to consider the GHG emission impacts of the those windows is an important aspect that can support the strategic objectives and the performance targets from the national blueprint for decarbonizing the buildings sector and to reduce the on-site emissions and embodied life cycle emissions from building materials and construction (US DOE 2024).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Challenges of Integrating NASAs Space Communication Networks

The transition to new technology, innovative ideas, and resistance to change is something that every industry experiences. Recent examples of this shift are changing to using robots in the assembly line construction of automobiles or the increasing use of robotics for medical procedures. Most often this is done with cost-reduction in mind, though ease of use for the customer is also a driver. All industries experience the push to increase efficiency of their systems; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the commercial space industry are no different. NASA space communication services are provided by three separately designed, developed, maintained, and operated communications networks known as the Deep Space Network (DSN), Near Earth Network (NEN) and Space Network (SN). The Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Program is pursuing integration of these networks and has performed a variety of architecture trade studies to determine what integration options would be the most effective in achieving a unified user mission support organization, and increase the use of common operational equipment and processes. The integration of multiple, legacy organizations and existing systems has challenges ranging from technical to cultural. The existing networks are the progeny of the very first communication and tracking capabilities implemented by NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) more than 50 years ago and have been customized to the needs of their respective user mission base. The technical challenges to integrating the networks are many, though not impossible to overcome. The three distinct networks provide the same types of services, with customizable data rates, bandwidth, frequencies, and so forth. The differences across the networks have occurred in effort to satisfy their user missions' needs. Each new requirement has made the networks more unique and harder to integrate. The cultural challenges, however, have proven to be a significant obstacle for integration. Over the past few decades of use, user missions and network personnel alike have grown accustomed to the processes by which services are provided by the NASA communications and navigation networks. The culture established by each network has created several challenges that need to be overcome in order to effectively integrate the networks. As with any change, there has been resistance, an apprehension to explore automation of existing processes, and a working environment that attempts to indirectly influence change without mandating compliance. Overcoming technical and cultural challenges is essential to successfully integrating the networks and although the challenges are numerous, the integration of the networks promises a more efficient space communications network for NASA and its customers, as well as potential long-term cost savings to the agency. This paper, Challenges of Integrating NASA Legacy Communications Networks, will provide a brief overview of the current NASA space communications networks as well as the an overview of the process implemented while performing the SCaN Trade Studies and an introduction to the requirements driving integration of the SCaN Networks. This paper will describe in detail the challenges experienced, both technical and cultural, while working with NASA space communications network-specific personnel. The paper will also cover lessons learned during the performance of architecture trade studies and provide recommendations for ways to improve the process.

Reinert, Jessica M.↗

Challenges of Integrating NASA's Space Communications Networks

The transition to new technology, innovative ideas, and resistance to change is something that every industry experiences. Recent examples of this shift are changing to using robots in the assembly line construction of automobiles or the increasing use of robotics for medical procedures. Most often this is done with cost-reduction in mind, though ease of use for the customer is also a driver. All industries experience the push to increase efficiency of their systems; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the commercial space industry are no different. NASA space communication services are provided by three separately designed, developed, maintained, and operated communications networks known as the Deep Space Network (DSN), Near Earth Network (NEN) and Space Network (SN). The Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Program is pursuing integration of these networks and has performed a variety of architecture trade studies to determine what integration options would be the most effective in achieving a unified user mission support organization, and increase the use of common operational equipment and processes. The integration of multiple, legacy organizations and existing systems has challenges ranging from technical to cultural. The existing networks are the progeny of the very first communication and tracking capabilities implemented by NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) more than 50 years ago and have been customized to the needs of their respective user mission base. The technical challenges to integrating the networks are many, though not impossible to overcome. The three distinct networks provide the same types of services, with customizable data rates, bandwidth, frequencies, and so forth. The differences across the networks have occurred in effort to satisfy their user missions' needs. Each new requirement has made the networks more unique and harder to integrate. The cultural challenges, however, have proven to be a significant obstacle for integration. Over the past few decades of use, user missions and network personnel alike have grown accustomed to the processes by which services are provided by the NASA communications and navigation networks. The culture established by each network has created several challenges that need to be overcome in order to effectively integrate the networks. As with any change, there has been resistance, an apprehension to explore automation of existing processes, and a working environment that attempts to indirectly influence change without mandating compliance. Overcoming technical and cultural challenges is essential to successfully integrating the networks and although the challenges are numerous, the integration of the networks promises a more efficient space communications network for NASA and its customers, as well as potential long-term cost savings to the agency. This paper, Challenges of Integrating NASA Legacy Communications Networks, will provide a brief overview of the current NASA space communications networks as well as the an overview of the process implemented while performing the SCaN Trade Studies and an introduction to the requirements driving integration of the SCaN Networks. This paper will describe in detail the challenges experienced, both technical and cultural, while working with NASA space communications network-specific personnel. The paper will also cover lessons learned during the performance of architecture trade studies and provide recommendations for ways to improve the process.

Systems Integration↗

United States plastics: Large flows, short lifetimes, and negligible recycling

Given increasing concerns for the marine environment and human health, as well as trade restrictions from Asian countries, plastics have become a great challenge for the United States. This study addresses the seven commonly used plastics: low-density polyethylene/linear low-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene, polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polypropylene, polystyrene, polyvinyl chloride, and other plastics. Material flows of the seven polymers were tracked from production into fabrication, manufacturing, flow into use, waste management, and recycling in the United States in 2015. Low- and high-density polyethylene and polypropylene were found to be the largest in both production and product manufacture. More than 88% of the plastics went into three end-use sectors: Packaging, Consumer and Institutional Products, and Building and Construction. In-use lifetimes across the plastics are generally short. Virgin plastics were mainly exported, while intermediate plastic products were largely imported. The actual end-of-life recycling rate of the plastics as a group was no more than 6.2%, with PET and the polyethylene family the most recycled. Here, the high yearly plastic throughput and low recycling rate pose a serious challenge to the sustainability goals of the United States and is in stark contrast to the vision of a circular economy of plastics.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Shape Optimization by Bayesian-Validated Computer-Simulation Surrogates

A nonparametric-validated, surrogate approach to optimization has been applied to the computational optimization of eddy-promoter heat exchangers and to the experimental optimization of a multielement airfoil. In addition to the baseline surrogate framework, a surrogate-Pareto framework has been applied to the two-criteria, eddy-promoter design problem. The Pareto analysis improves the predictability of the surrogate results, preserves generality, and provides a means to rapidly determine design trade-offs. Significant contributions have been made in the geometric description used for the eddy-promoter inclusions as well as to the surrogate framework itself. A level-set based, geometric description has been developed to define the shape of the eddy-promoter inclusions. The level-set technique allows for topology changes (from single-body,eddy-promoter configurations to two-body configurations) without requiring any additional logic. The continuity of the output responses for input variations that cross the boundary between topologies has been demonstrated. Input-output continuity is required for the straightforward application of surrogate techniques in which simplified, interpolative models are fitted through a construction set of data. The surrogate framework developed previously has been extended in a number of ways. First, the formulation for a general, two-output, two-performance metric problem is presented. Surrogates are constructed and validated for the outputs. The performance metrics can be functions of both outputs, as well as explicitly of the inputs, and serve to characterize the design preferences. By segregating the outputs and the performance metrics, an additional level of flexibility is provided to the designer. The validated outputs can be used in future design studies and the error estimates provided by the output validation step still apply, and require no additional appeals to the expensive analysis. Second, a candidate-based a posteriori error analysis capability has been developed which provides probabilistic error estimates on the true performance for a design randomly selected near the surrogate-predicted optimal design.

Patera, Anthony T.↗

Analysis of Strategic Conflict Management Approaches as Applied to Simulated UAM Operations

This report presents the results of a comparison analysis of candidate Strategic Conflict Management (SCM) strategies as applied to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. The SCM strategies investigated included: no SCM, resource scheduling (RS), resource flow rates (FR), area-based flow rates (AR), and conflict detection and resolution (CR). The study evaluated each strategy against the same 3 levels of flight demand in a representative airspace construct for the Dallas/Fort Worth region. The study also accounted for different levels of uncertainty in operational planning and equivalent levels of trajectory following error. In the analysis, we compared the SCM strategies’ effectiveness in reducing the need for the tactical conflict management layer to act and looked at the metrics of unmitigated losses-of-separation (LOS), flight delays imposed by strategic planning, and throughput of the overall airspace. The study results indicated that the CR strategy was the most effective at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS, even in the presence of trajectory error when uncertainty is accounted for in planning. Thus, if the objective is to reduce the number of actions that the tactical conflict management layer will have to take, in terms of conflicts that may need to be resolved, CR is the strategy to use. The FR strategy was found to be the worst at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS. Thus, it is not very effective at reducing the actions required by a tactical conflict management layer. In the airspace tested, the demand was high enough to produce unacceptable levels of flight delay and reductions of throughput when the SCM strategies were implemented. This was especially evident at the higher levels of trajectory uncertainty and error. The need to account for expected levels of uncertainty becomes more and more important as the demand level increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. This is because the likelihood of flights with LOS increases as the density of operations increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. Accounting for uncertainty in the SCM strategies improves the strategy effectiveness with respect to LOS but increases delays and reduces throughput. Thus, there is a tradeoff between scalability and allowable levels of uncertainty. That is, we can implement an air traffic management construct that allows high levels of uncertainty, but we can expect that same system to have limits on scalability that may be evident even at small demand levels, such as those used in this study. Therefore, the results in this study indicate that an air traffic system should attempt to implement mechanisms appropriate for reducing uncertainty where possible in order to increase the chances for scalability. And this increased level of predictability of operations needs to be balanced with mechanisms for ensuring flexibility when operational conditions and plans need to change, even though those types of changes should be the exception rather than the rule under normal conditions. The study also introduced a trade space that could serve as a mechanism for selecting the appropriate SCM strategy in a trade-off between uncertainty and error, mean flight delay, and the LOS metrics (which this study equates to the potential for tactical conflict management actions). The optimal solution for a given airspace, demand level, and other factors, could likely be a combination of SCM strategies, although this study only compared the use of a single SCM strategy at a time. The CR strategy appeared to have the best opportunity for scalability by limiting the number of potential tactical actions to nearly zero.

Strategic Conflict Management↗

Space biology initiative program definition review. Trade study 2: Prototype utilization in the development of space biology hardware

The objective was to define the factors which space flight hardware developers and planners should consider when determining: (1) the number of hardware units required to support program; (2) design level of the units; and (3) most efficient means of utilization of the units. The analysis considered technology risk, maintainability, reliability, and safety design requirements for achieving the delivery of highest quality flight hardware. Relative cost impacts of the utilization of prototyping were identified. The development of Space Biology Initiative research hardware will involve intertwined hardware/software activities. Experience has shown that software development can be an expensive portion of a system design program. While software prototyping could imply the development of a significantly different end item, an operational system prototype must be considered to be a combination of software and hardware. Hundreds of factors were identified that could be considered in determining the quantity and types of prototypes that should be constructed. In developing the decision models, these factors were combined and reduced by approximately ten-to-one in order to develop a manageable structure based on the major determining factors. The Baseline SBI hardware list of Appendix D was examined and reviewed in detail; however, from the facts available it was impossible to identify the exact types and quantities of prototypes required for each of these items. Although the factors that must be considered could be enumerated for each of these pieces of equipment, the exact status and state of development of the equipment is variable and uncertain at this time.

Jackson, L. Neal↗

Trellises and Trellis-Based Decoding Algorithms for Linear Block Codes

A code trellis is a graphical representation of a code, block or convolutional, in which every path represents a codeword (or a code sequence for a convolutional code). This representation makes it possible to implement Maximum Likelihood Decoding (MLD) of a code with reduced decoding complexity. The most well known trellis-based MLD algorithm is the Viterbi algorithm. The trellis representation was first introduced and used for convolutional codes [23]. This representation, together with the Viterbi decoding algorithm, has resulted in a wide range of applications of convolutional codes for error control in digital communications over the last two decades. There are two major reasons for this inactive period of research in this area. First, most coding theorists at that time believed that block codes did not have simple trellis structure like convolutional codes and maximum likelihood decoding of linear block codes using the Viterbi algorithm was practically impossible, except for very short block codes. Second, since almost all of the linear block codes are constructed algebraically or based on finite geometries, it was the belief of many coding theorists that algebraic decoding was the only way to decode these codes. These two reasons seriously hindered the development of efficient soft-decision decoding methods for linear block codes and their applications to error control in digital communications. This led to a general belief that block codes are inferior to convolutional codes and hence, that they were not useful. Chapter 2 gives a brief review of linear block codes. The goal is to provide the essential background material for the development of trellis structure and trellis-based decoding algorithms for linear block codes in the later chapters. Chapters 3 through 6 present the fundamental concepts, finite-state machine model, state space formulation, basic structural properties, state labeling, construction procedures, complexity, minimality, and sectionalization of trellises. Chapter 7 discusses trellis decomposition and subtrellises for low-weight codewords. Chapter 8 first presents well known methods for constructing long powerful codes from short component codes or component codes of smaller dimensions, and then provides methods for constructing their trellises which include Shannon and Cartesian product techniques. Chapter 9 deals with convolutional codes, puncturing, zero-tail termination and tail-biting.Chapters 10 through 13 present various trellis-based decoding algorithms, old and new. Chapter 10 first discusses the application of the well known Viterbi decoding algorithm to linear block codes, optimum sectionalization of a code trellis to minimize computation complexity, and design issues for IC (integrated circuit) implementation of a Viterbi decoder. Then it presents a new decoding algorithm for convolutional codes, named Differential Trellis Decoding (DTD) algorithm. Chapter 12 presents a suboptimum reliability-based iterative decoding algorithm with a low-weight trellis search for the most likely codeword. This decoding algorithm provides a good trade-off between error performance and decoding complexity. All the decoding algorithms presented in Chapters 10 through 12 are devised to minimize word error probability. Chapter 13 presents decoding algorithms that minimize bit error probability and provide the corresponding soft (reliability) information at the output of the decoder. Decoding algorithms presented are the MAP (maximum a posteriori probability) decoding algorithm and the Soft-Output Viterbi Algorithm (SOVA) algorithm. Finally, the minimization of bit error probability in trellis-based MLD is discussed.

Lin, Shu↗

Enhancing the accuracy of XPS calculations: Exploring hybrid basis set schemes for CVS-EOMIP-CCSD calculations

Reliable computational methodologies and basis sets for modeling x-ray spectra are essential for extracting and interpreting electronic and structural information from experimental x-ray spectra. In particular, the trade-off between numerical accuracy and computational cost due to the size of the basis set is a major challenge, since molecular orbitals undergo extreme relaxation in the core-hole state. To gain clarity on the changes in electronic structure induced by the formation of a core-hole, the use of sufficiently flexible basis for expanding the orbitals, particularly for the core region, has been shown to be essential. This work focuses on the refinement of core-hole ionized state calculations using the equation-of-motion coupled cluster family of methods through an extensive analysis on the effectiveness of “hybrid” and mixed basis sets. In this investigation, we utilize the CVS-EOMIP-CCSD method in combination and construct hybrid basis sets piecewise from readily available Dunning’s correlation consistent basis sets in order to calculate x-ray ionization energies (IEs) for a set of small gas phase molecules. Our results provide insights into the impact of basis sets on the CVS-EOMIP-CCSD calculations of K-edge IEs of first-row p-block elements. Furthermore, these insights enable us to understand more about the basis set dependence of the core IEs computed and allow us to establish a protocol for deriving reliable and cost-effective theoretical estimates for computing IEs of small molecules containing such elements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗