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NASA NTRS1989

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

The calculation of shape and scale parametes of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by using the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Shantaram, S. Pai↗

NASA NTRS1989

Variance and bias computation for enhanced system identification

A study is made of the use of a series of variance and bias confidence criteria recently developed for the eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA) identification technique. The criteria are shown to be very effective, not only for indicating the accuracy of the identification results (especially in terms of confidence intervals), but also for helping the ERA user to obtain better results. They help determine the best sample interval, the true system order, how much data to use and whether to introduce gaps in the data used, what dimension Hankel matrix to use, and how to limit the bias or correct for bias in the estimates.

Bergmann, Martin↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stochastic performance robustness of aircraft control systems

Stochastic robustness, a simple technique used to estimate the robustness of linear, time-invariant systems, is applied to a twin-jet transport aircraft control system. Concepts behind stochastic stability robustness are extended to stochastic performance robustness. Stochastic performance robustness measures based on classical design specifications and measures specific to aircraft handling qualities are introduced. Confidence intervals for both individual stochastic robustness measures and for comparing two measures are presented. The application of stochastic performance robustness, the use of confidence intervals, and tradeoffs between performance objectives are demonstrated by means of the twin-jet aircraft example.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Some far-field acoustics characteristics of the XV-15 tilt-rotor aircraft

Far-field acoustics tests have been conducted on an instrumented XV-15 tilt-rotor aircraft. The purpose of these acoustic measurements was to create an encompassing, high confidence (90 percent), and accurate (-1.4/ +1/8 dB theoretical confidence interval) far-field acoustics data base to validate ROTONET and other current rotorcraft noise prediction computer codes. This paper describes the flight techniques used, with emphasis on the care taken to obtain high-quality far-field acoustic data. The quality and extensiveness of the data base collected are shown by presentation of ground acoustic contours for level flyovers for the airplane flight mode and for several forward velocities and nacelle tilts for the transition mode and helicopter flight mode. Acoustic pressure time-histories and fully analyzed ensemble averaged far-field data results (spectra) are shown for each of the ground contour cases.

Golub, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

X-ray emission from starburst galaxies

The results are reported of an investigation of X-ray emission from a sample of 53 IRAS-selected candidate starburst galaxies. Superposed soft and hard X-ray emission from these galaxies in the Einstein-IPC and HEAO-1 A-2 and A-4 energy bands, which span 0.5 to 160 keV, is detected at the 99.6 percent confidence level, after allowing for confusion noise in the HEAO-1 data. Above 15 keV the confidence level is 97 percent. The combined spectrum is flat, with a (photon) power-law index of 1.0 +/- 0.3. The contribution of the population of sources represented by this sample to the 3-50 keV residual cosmic X-ray background is estimated to be at least about 4 percent assuming no evolution. Moderate evolution, for which there is some observational evidence, increases this fractional contribution to about 26 percent.

Rephaeli, Yoel↗

NASA NTRS1992

A Comparison Between Raman Lidar and Conventional Contact Measurements of Atmospheric Temperature

Described here are the results of comparison between lidar and conventional contact measurements of the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere. The lidar measurements are based on the method of temperature dependence of pure rotational Raman scattering of nitrogen and oxygen molecules. The presented results show that, as a whole, the motion of the lidar and conventional profiles coincide in the confidence intervals. Still there are districts in which the differences lay out of the confidence intervals. In analysis and estimation of the coincidence and the distinction in moving the profiles, we must take into account the differences between the methods for measuring the temperature profiles by lidar and contact methods, i.e. the next additional factors. The tied balloon meter gives the momentary values of the temperature in particular points of the profile, as these momentary values are the results of consequent, but not simultaneous measurements. In the case of free flying balloon, the time of measuring the lower several hundred meters is little because of high vertical velocity (about 300 m/min). This leads to an indefinite increase of the measuring error. The complete space coincidence between the lidar's and conventional profiles isn't possible. The contribution of the factors mentioned above about the error of comparison could increase because of nonstable layers in the planetary boundary layer of the atmosphere as well as by the influence of the mountains and the city situated nearby.

Mitev, V. M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Monte Carlo simulation of errors in the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility - A second-rank symmetric tensor

Monte Carlo perturbations of synthetic tensors to evaluate the Hext/Jelinek elliptical confidence regions for anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) eigenvectors are used. When the perturbations are 33 percent of the minimum anisotropy, both the shapes and probability densities of the resulting eigenvector distributions agree with the elliptical distributions predicted by the Hext/Jelinek equations. When the perturbation size is increased to 100 percent of the minimum eigenvalue difference, the major axis of the 95 percent confidence ellipse underestimates the observed eigenvector dispersion by about 10 deg. The observed distributions of the principal susceptibilities (eigenvalues) are close to being normal, with standard errors that agree well with the calculated Hext/Jelinek errors. The Hext/Jelinek ellipses are also able to describe the AMS dispersions due to instrumental noise and provide reasonable limits for the AMS dispersions observed in two Hawaiian basaltic dikes. It is concluded that the Hext/Jelinek method provides a satisfactory description of the errors in AMS data and should be a standard part of any AMS data analysis.

Lienert, Barry R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

X-ray properties of bright far-infrared galaxies

The Einstein IPC was searched for observations of galaxies in the IRAS BCS. Of the 324 galaxies in this sample, 81 were observed with the IPC, and 51 were detected at a confidence level greater than 3-sigma. A strong correlation was found to exist between the FIR and X-ray luminosities among the normal and starburst (NSB) galaxies with LX varies as Lfir exp 0.90-1.01 (90-percent confidence limits). The X-ray luminosity of the 10 Seyfert galaxies in this sample is a factor of approximately 10 greater than the NSB galaxies with the same FIR luminosity. The efficiency of X-ray production through star formation is found to be nearly independent of the star formation rate with 10 exp 47.5 ergs of energy produced for each solar mass consumed into stars. It is shown that the X-ray emission from bright FIR galaxies can make a significant contribution to the observed X-ray background.

David, L. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Variance and bias computations for improved modal identification using ERA/DC

Variance and bias confidence criteria were recently developed for the eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA) identification technique. These criteria are extended for the modified version of ERA based on data correlation, ERA/DC, and also for the Q-Markov cover algorithm. The importance and usefulness of the variance and bias information are demonstrated in numerical studies. The criteria are shown to be very effective not only by indicating the accuracy of the identification results, especially in terms of confidence intervals, but also by helping the ERA user to obtain better results by seeing the effect of changing the sample time, adjusting the Hankel matrix dimension, choosing how many singular values to retain, deciding the model order, etc.

Longman, Richard W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Frequency domain identification for robust large space structure control design

A methodology is demonstrated for frequency domain identification of large space structures which systematically transforms experimental raw data into a form required for synthesizing H(infinity) controllers using modern robust control design software (e.g., Matlab Toolboxes). A unique feature of this approach is that the additive uncertainty is characterized to a specified statistic confidence rather than with hard bounds. In this study, the difference in robust performance is minimal between the two levels of confidence. In general cases, the present methodology provides a tool for performance/confidence level tradeoff studies. For simplicity, the additive uncertainty on a frequency grid is considered and the interpolation error in between grid points is neglected.

Yam, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An expert system for diagnosing environmentally induced spacecraft anomalies

A new rule-based, machine independent analytical tool was designed for diagnosing spacecraft anomalies using an expert system. Expert systems provide an effective method for saving knowledge, allow computers to sift through large amounts of data pinpointing significant parts, and most importantly, use heuristics in addition to algorithms, which allow approximate reasoning and inference and the ability to attack problems not rigidly defined. The knowledge base consists of over two-hundred (200) rules and provides links to historical and environmental databases. The environmental causes considered are bulk charging, single event upsets (SEU), surface charging, and total radiation dose. The system's driver translates forward chaining rules into a backward chaining sequence, prompting the user for information pertinent to the causes considered. The use of heuristics frees the user from searching through large amounts of irrelevant information and allows the user to input partial information (varying degrees of confidence in an answer) or 'unknown' to any question. The modularity of the expert system allows for easy updates and modifications. It not only provides scientists with needed risk analysis and confidence not found in algorithmic programs, but is also an effective learning tool, and the window implementation makes it very easy to use. The system currently runs on a Micro VAX II at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The inference engine used is NASA's C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS).

Rolincik, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1992

Environmental qualification testing of payload G-534, the Pool Boiling Experiment

Payload G-534, the prototype Pool Boiling Experiment (PBE), is scheduled to fly on the STS-47 mission in September 1992. This paper describes the purpose of the experiment and the environmental qualification testing program that was used to prove the integrity of the hardware. Component and box level vibration and thermal cycling tests were performed to give an early level of confidence in the hardware designs. At the system level, vibration, thermal extreme soaks, and thermal vacuum cycling tests were performed to qualify the complete design for the expected shuttle environment. The system level vibration testing included three axis sine sweeps and random inputs. The system level hot and cold soak tests demonstrated the hardware's capability to operate over a wide range of temperatures and gave wider latitude in determining which shuttle thermal attitudes were compatible with the experiment. The system level thermal vacuum cycling tests demonstrated the hardware's capability to operate in a convection free environment. A unique environmental chamber was designed and fabricated by the PBE team and allowed most of the environmental testing to be performed within the hardware build laboratory. The completion of the test program gave the project team high confidence in the hardware's ability to function as designed during flight.

Sexton, J. Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1992

Environmental qualification testing of the prototype pool boiling experiment

The prototype Pool Boiling Experiment (PBE) flew on the STS-47 mission in September 1992. This report describes the purpose of the experiment and the environmental qualification testing program that was used to prove the integrity of the prototype hardware. Component and box level vibration and thermal cycling tests were performed to give an early level of confidence in the hardware designs. At the system level, vibration, thermal extreme soaks, and thermal vacuum cycling tests were performed to qualify the complete design for the expected shuttle environment. The system level vibration testing included three axis sine sweeps and random inputs. The system level hot and cold soak tests demonstrated the hardware's capability to operate over a wide range of temperatures and gave the project team a wider latitude in determining which shuttle thermal altitudes were compatible with the experiment. The system level thermal vacuum cycling tests demonstrated the hardware's capability to operate in a convection free environment. A unique environmental chamber was designed and fabricated by the PBE team and allowed most of the environmental testing to be performed within the project's laboratory. The completion of the test program gave the project team high confidence in the hardware's ability to function as designed during flight.

Sexton, J. Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1993

An on-line expert system for diagnosing environmentally induced spacecraft anomalies using CLIPS

A new rule-based, expert system for diagnosing spacecraft anomalies is under development. The knowledge base consists of over two-hundred rules and provide links to historical and environmental databases. Environmental causes considered are bulk charging, single event upsets (SEU), surface charging, and total radiation dose. The system's driver translates forward chaining rules into a backward chaining sequence, prompting the user for information pertinent to the causes considered. The use of heuristics frees the user from searching through large amounts of irrelevant information (varying degrees of confidence in an answer) or 'unknown' to any question. The expert system not only provides scientists with needed risk analysis and confidence estimates not available in standard numerical models or databases, but it is also an effective learning tool. In addition, the architecture of the expert system allows easy additions to the knowledge base and the database. For example, new frames concerning orbital debris and ionospheric scintillation are being considered. The system currently runs on a MicroVAX and uses the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS).

Lauriente, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1993

Noncosmological signal contributions to the COBE DMR anisotropy maps

We examine the COBE Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) data for evidence of noncosmological source contributions. The DMR maps are cross-correlated with maps of rich clusters, extragalactic IRAS sources, HEAO 1 A-2 X-ray emission, and 5 GHz radio sources. We limit the rms contributions from these sources on a 7 deg angular scale to less than 10 micro-K (95 percent confidence level) in the DMR maps, although the LMC probably contributes about 50 micro-K to a limited region of the sky. Thus, our previous interpretation that the fluctuations in the COBE DMR data are most likely due to cosmic fluctuations at the surface of last scattering remains intact. The Comptonization parameter for hot electrons traced by rich clusters is limited to delta(y) less than 2 x 10 exp -6 (95 percent confidence level) averaged over the 7 deg DMR beam.

Bennett, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Parameter identification of material constants in a composite shell structure

One of the basic requirements in engineering analysis is the development of a mathematical model describing the system. Frequently comparisons with test data are used as a measurement of the adequacy of the model. An attempt is typically made to update or improve the model to provide a test verified analysis tool. System identification provides a systematic procedure for accomplishing this task. The terms system identification, parameter estimation, and model correlation all refer to techniques that use test information to update or verify mathematical models. The goal of system identification is to improve the correlation of model predictions with measured test data, and produce accurate, predictive models. For nonmetallic structures the modeling task is often difficult due to uncertainties in the elastic constants. A finite element model of the shell was created, which included uncertain orthotropic elastic constants. A modal survey test was then performed on the shell. The resulting modal data, along with the finite element model of the shell, were used in a Bayes estimation algorithm. This permitted the use of covariance matrices to weight the confidence in the initial parameter values as well as confidence in the measured test data. The estimation procedure also employed the concept of successive linearization to obtain an approximate solution to the original nonlinear estimation problem.

Martinez, David R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A comparison of approximate interval estimators for the Bernoulli parameter

The goal of this paper is to compare the accuracy of two approximate confidence interval estimators for the Bernoulli parameter p. The approximate confidence intervals are based on the normal and Poisson approximations to the binomial distribution. Charts are given to indicate which approximation is appropriate for certain sample sizes and point estimators.

Leemis, Lawrence↗

NASA NTRS1995

SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 26: Results of the SeaWiFS Data Analysis Round-Robin, July 1994 (DARR-1994)

The accurate determination of upper ocean apparent optical properties (AOP's) is essential for the vicarious calibration of the sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor (SeaWiFS) instrument and the validation of the derived data products. To evaluate the role that data analysis methods have upon values of derived AOP's, the first Data Analysis Round-Robin (DARR-94) workshop was sponsored by the SeaWiFS Project during 21-23 July, 1994. The focus of this intercomparison study was the estimation of the downwelling irradiance spectrum just beneath the sea surface, E(sub d)(0(sup -), lambda); the upwelling nadir radiance just beneath the sea surface, L(sub u)(0(sup -), lambda); and the vertical profile of the diffuse attenuation coefficient spectrum, K(sub d)(z, lambda). In the results reported here, different methodologies from four research groups were applied to an identical set of 10 spectroradiometry casts in order to evaluate the degree to which data analysis methods influence AOP estimation, and whether any general improvements can be made. The overall results of DARR-94 are presented in Chapter 1 and the individual methods of the four groups are presented in Chapters 2-5. The DARR-94 results do not show a clear winner among data analysis methods evaluated. It is apparent, however, that some degree of outlier rejection is required in order to accurately estimate L(sub u)(0(sup -), lambda) or E(sub d)(0(sup -), lambda). Furthermore, the calculation, evaluation and exploitation of confidence intervals for the AOP determinations needs to be explored. That is, the SeaWiFS calibration and validation problem should be recast in statistical terms where the in situ AOP values are statistical estimates with known confidence intervals.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗