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NASA NTRS2016

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to C6-9m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Computer simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Cold Wet Mars: A Testable Hypothesis for Ancient Mars Ocean Freezing Point Depression Via Low Molecular Weight Organics

Mars exhibits widespread evidence of surface water in the distant past, but global modeling has had difficulty producing climatological conditions conducive to a wet surface. The hypothesis discussed here examines a different way of approaching the problem rather than focusing on climate, instead an examination of the nature of the surface liquid itself. Previous work has largely assumed that martian surface water was a brine analogous to terrestrial ocean water, but recent discoveries suggest that significant amounts of light organic compounds may have been present via abiogenic native production of light organics on Mars [1]. Light organics such as methanol and formaldehyde have an approximate order-of-magnitude greater freezing point depression than brine, potentially lowering the freezing point of martian surface fluids sufficiently to remain liquid even if the mean surface temperature is below zero Centigrade. As Mars evolved and the surface transitioned to the strongly oxidized conditions seen today, the light organics would have oxidized to carbon dioxide and may be a constituent of the atmosphere today. Considerable work must be done to constrain the freezing points of Mars-relevant organic/water and organic/salt/water mixtures, but this investigation might explain the presence of surface fluid on a cold early Mars – a cold, wet Mars as opposed to a warm, wet Mars. Additionally, this approach may work in conjunction with climatological modeling to better describe early conditions conducive which adequately explain observations. This hypothesis can be tested by examination of ancient fluid inclusions (either in situ or via Mars Sample Return) such as those commonly found in halite, preserving samples of ancient martian surface fluid.

M D Fries↗

NASA NTRS2021

3D Simulations of the Early Martian Hydrological Cycle Mediated by a H2-CO2 Greenhouse

For decades, the scientific community has been trying to reconcile abundant evidence for fluvialactivity on Noachian and early Hesperian Mars with the faint young Sun and reasonableconstraints on ancient atmospheric pressure and composition. Recently, the investigation of H2-CO2 collision-induced absorption has opened up a new avenue to warm Noachian Mars. We usethe ROCKE-3D global climate model to simulate plausible states of the ancient Martian climatewith this absorptive warming and reasonable constraints on surface paleopressure. We find that1.5-2 bar CO2-dominated atmospheres with ≥3% H2 can produce global mean surfacetemperatures above freezing, while also providing sufficient warming to avoid surfaceatmospheric CO2 condensation at 0°-45° obliquity. Simulations conducted with both moderntopography and a paleotopography, before Tharsis formed, highlight the importance of Tharsis asa cold trap for water on the planet. Additionally, we find that low obliquity (modern and 0°) ismore conducive to rainfall over valley network locations than high (45°) obliquity. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Much evidence tells us that ancient Mars had liquid water on its surface. But reconciling thatwith the fainter young Sun and reasonable constraints on Mars' early atmosphere is challenging.We use a 3D global climate model with an atmosphere containing some amount of hydrogen (apossible greenhouse gas) to study Mars' early hydrological cycle and compare it to the geologicalevidence of surface liquid water billions of years ago. We find that hydrogen and carbon dioxidetogether in an atmosphere twice as thick as modern Earth can warm early Mars above thefreezing point of water and that a low axial tilt produces rainfall patterns that best match thegeologic evidence

Scott D Guzewich↗

NASA NTRS2016

Ice-Covered Lakes in Gale Crater Mars: The Cold and Wet Hypothesis

Recent geological discoveries from the Mars Science Laboratory provide evidence that Gale crater may have intermittently hosted a fluvio-lacustine environment during the Hesperian, with individual lakes lasting for a period of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. (Grotzinger et al., Science, 350 (6257), 2015). Estimates of the CO2 content of the atmosphere at the time the Gale sediments formed are far less than needed by any climate model to warm early Mars (Bristow et al., Geology, submitted), given the low solar energy input available at Mars 3.5 Gya. We have therefore explored the possibility that the lakes in Gale during the Hesperian were perennially covered with ice using the Antarctic Lakes as an analog. Using our best estimate for the annual mean surface temperature at Gale at this time (approx. 230K) we computed the thickness of an ice-covered lake. These thickness range from 10-30 meters depending on the ablation rate and ice transparency and would likely inhibit sediments from entering the lake. Thus, a first conclusion is that the ice must not be too cold. Raising the mean temperature to 245K is challenging, but not quite as hard as reaching 273K. We found that a mean annual temperature of 245K ice thicknesses range from 3-10 meters. These values are comparable to the range of those for the Antarctic lakes (3-6 m), and are not implausible. And they are not so thick that sediments cannot penetrate the ice. For the ice-covered lake hypothesis to work, however, a melt water source is needed. This could come from subaqueous melting of a glacial dam in contact with the lakes (as is the case for Lake Untersee) or from seasonal melt water from nearby glaciers (as is the case for the Dry Valley lakes). More work is needed to better assess these possibilities. However, the main advantage of the ice-covered lake model (and the main reason we pursued it) is that it relaxes the requirement for a long-lived active hydrological cycle involving rainfall and runoff, which no climate model is able to produce given known constraints on the early Mars environment.

Antarctic lakes↗

NASA NTRS2013

Space View Issues for Hyperspectral Sounders

The expectation for climate quality measurements from hyperspectral sounders is absolute calibration accuracy at the 100 mK level and stability at the < 40 mK/decade level. The Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS)1, Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) hyperspectral sounders currently in orbit have been shown to agree well over most of their brightness temperature range. Some larger discrepancies are seen, however, at the coldest scene temperatures, such as those seen in Antarctic winter and deep convective clouds. A key limiting factor for the calibrated scene radiance accuracy for cold scenes is how well the effective radiance of the cold space view pertains to the scene views. The space view signal is composed of external sources and instrument thermal emission at about 270 K from the scan mirror, external baffles, etc. Any difference in any of these contributions between space views and scene views will impact the absolute calibration accuracy, and the impact can be critical for cold scenes. Any change over time in these will show up as an apparent trend in calibrated radiances. We use AIRS data to investigate the validity of the space view assumption in view of the 100 mK accuracy and 40 mK/decade trend expectations. We show that the space views used for the cold calibration point for AIRS v5 Level-1B products meet these standards except under special circumstances and that AIRS v6 Level-1B products will meet them under all circumstances. This analysis also shows the value of having multiple distinct space views to give operational redundancy and analytic data, and that reaching climate quality requires continuing monitoring of aging instruments and adjustment of calibration.

trends↗

NASA NTRS1984

Physical Properties of Neptune and Triton Inferred from the Orbit of Triton

The orbital motion of Triton was redetermined from photographic data spanning the interval 1899-1981. The resulting ephemeris should provide Triton positions with respect to Neptune with an accuracy of plus or minus 500 km through the end of the century. The following physical results follow from the orbit solution. The inverse mass of Neptune + Triton is solar mass over (c sub N + m sub T) = 19490 plus or minus 40. No acceleration of the mean motion nor orbital eccentricity were detected, thus constraining the tidal dissipation factors of Neptune and Triton to O sub N less than or equal to 650 and QT less than or equal to 10,000. Tidal heating of Triton is presently insignificant. The gravitational harmonic J sub 2 of Neptune is 0.0043 plus or minus 0.0003 if Triton is as massive as m sub T/ M sub N = 0.00128, and if Neptune's spin is prograde with P approximately 18(h), or J sub 2 = 0.0037 plus or minus 0.0002 if Triton is much less massive. Triton undergoes extreme climatic variations due to the combined motion of it's orbit plane and Neptune's orbital motion. Approximately 10% of Triton's surface is presently hidden from diurnal insolation, which may provide a powerful cold trap for atmospheric voltatiles.

A W Harris↗

NASA NTRS1993

Did Mars once have martians?

Pictures of Mars from the Viking and Mariner 9 missions provide evidence of liquid water in Mars' past, indicating a warmer climate. It is speculated that outflow channels and valley networks were formed 3.5 to 4 billions years ago, at the same time life was developing on Earth. Current theories suggest that chemical reactions in Mars' early atmosphere depleted the original amounts of carbon dioxide with no mechanism to recycle it back into the atmosphere. Ecosystems in the cold, dry Antarctic valleys provide models of Mars on Earth and indicate that if life evolved on Mars there may be organic or fossil evidence under the surface. Lake beds on Mars surface are considered to be the best place to hunt for fossils.

NASA Center ARC↗

NASA NTRS2007

Electrification in Hurricanes over the Tropical Americas: Implication for Stratospheric Water Vapor

This study explores the relation between lightning activity and water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) over hurricane systems in the Tropical Americas. The hypothesis herein is that hurricanes that exhibit enhanced lightning activity are associated with stronger updrafts that can transport more moisture directly into the TTL (and subsequently into the tropical stratosphere) or even directly into the tropical stratosphere over this region. The TTL over the Tropical Americas, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is of particular interest, because summertime cold point tropopause is the lowest in height and thus the warmest in temperature over the tropics. The latter condition implies higher saturation values and thus potential for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. Climate forecast is very sensitive to stratospheric water vapor abundance, because of the key role that water vapor plays in regulating the chemical and radiative properties of the stratosphere. Given the potential for increases in hurricane intensity and frequency under predicted warmer conditions, it becomes essential to understand the effect of hurricanes on stratospheric water vapor. In this study, we use a combination of ground and space-borne observations as well as trajectory calculations. The observations include: cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), geostationary infrared observations from the National Climatic Data Center Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data set, cloud properties from Aqua-MODIS, and water vapor from Aura-MLS. We analyze hurricanes from the 2005 season when Aura-MLS data are available, namely: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Our analysis consists of examining CG lightning, cloud-top properties, and TTL water vapor (i.e., 100 and 147 mb) over the hurricane while it remains over water in the Tropical Americas region. We investigate daily as well as diurnal statistical properties. The hurricanes analyzed in this study showed that lightning activity is negatively correlated with minimum infrared brightness temperature and positively correlated with 100-mb water vapor. An examination of the maxima in water vapor observed over the hurricane not only shows larger magnitudes, but also larger differences between water vapor averages and water vapor maxima over the hurricane as lightning activity increases. Trajectory calculations are performed using the Flextra model in order to investigate the fate of the moister air masses found in the TTL.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

FROM↗

NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Microphysics Within Winter Storms Using Field Data and In Situ Observations

Snow prediction within models is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33-km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Cold-season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment over southern Ontario, as well as a few years (12 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. The GCPex presentation will focus on verification using aircraft spirals through warm frontal snow band event on 18 February 2012. All the BMPs realistically simulated the structure of the band and the vertical distribution of snow/ice aloft, except the SBU-YLIN overpredicted slightly and Thompson (THOM) underpredicted somewhat. The Morrison (MORR) scheme produced the best slope size distribution for snow, while the Stony Brook (SBU) underpredicted and the THOM slightly overpredicted. Those schemes that have the slope intercept a function of temperature (SBU and WSM6) tended to perform better for that parameter than others, especially the fixed intercept in Goddard. Overall, the spread among BMPs was smaller than in other studies, likely because there was limited riming with the band. For the 15 cases at SBNY, which include moderate and heavy riming events, the non-spherical snow assumption (THOM and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and MORR schemes. The MORR, WSM6, and SBU schemes are comparable to the observed velocity distribution in light and moderate riming periods. The THOM is approx. 0.25 m/s too slow with its velocity distribution in these periods. In heavier riming, the vertical Doppler velocities in the WSM6, THOM, and MORR schemes were approx. 0.25 m/s too slow, while the SBU was 0.25 to 0.5 m/s too fast because of some excessive cloud water issues.

Colle, Brian A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Alaska Humans Factors Safety Study: The Southern Coastal Area

At the request of the Alaska Air Carriers Association, researchers from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System, at NASA Ames Research Center, conducted a study on aspects of safety in Alaskan Part 135 air taxi operations. An interview form on human factors safety issues was created by a representative team from the FAA-Alaska, NTSB-Alaska, NASA-ASRS, and representatives of the Alaska Air Carriers Association which was subsequently used in the interviews of pilots and managers. Because of the climate and operational differences, the study was broken into two geographical areas, the southern coastal areas and the northern portion of the state. This presentation addresses the southern coastal areas, specifically: Anchorage, Dillingham, King Salmon, Kodiak, Cold Bay, Juneau, and Ketchikan. The interview questions dealt with many of the potential pressures on pilots and managers associated with the daily air taxi operations in Alaska. The impact of the environmental factors such as the lack of available communication, navigation and weather information systems was evaluated. The results of this study will be used by government and industry working in Alaska. These findings will contribute important information on specific Alaska safety issues for eventual incorporation into training materials and policies that will help to assure the safe conduct of air taxi flights in Alaska.

Chappell, Sheryl L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A lunar polar expedition

Advanced exploration and development in harsh environments require mastery of basic human survival skill. Expeditions into the lethal climates of Earth's polar regions offer useful lessons for tommorrow's lunar pioneers. In Arctic and Antarctic exploration, 'wintering over' was a crucial milestone. The ability to establish a supply base and survive months of polar cold and darkness made extensive travel and exploration possible. Because of the possibility of near-constant solar illumination, the lunar polar regions, unlike Earth's may offer the most hospitable site for habitation. The World Space Foundation is examining a scenario for establishing a five-person expeditionary team on the lunar north pole for one year. This paper is a status report on a point design addressing site selection, transportation, power, and life support requirements.

Dowling, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2019

Deep Space Observations of Sun Glints from Marine Ice Clouds

The Earth Polychromatic Camera (EPIC) onboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft takes images of the sunlit face of Earth from a million miles away. Earlier work showed that EPIC detected the specular reflection of sunlight (that is, sun glint) from ice crystals floating in cold clouds over land; here we show that this phenomenon can also be detected over oceans. Furthermore, the results show that - using its observations at Oxygen A-band absorption bands - EPIC can distinguish glints off marine ice clouds from those off the ocean surface. The analysis of more than two years of EPIC data reveals that the two kinds of glints are detected with comparable frequency. Glints off clouds are shown to be generally brighter but smaller in spatial extent. It is also demonstrated that glints off ice clouds have a discernible effect on the regional mean reflectance and that EPIC observations can help constrain the radiative contribution of oriented ice crystals.

Atmosphere↗

NASA NTRS1996

Precipitable Water Variability Using SSM/I and GOES VAS Pathfinder Data Sets

Determining moisture variability for all weather scenes is critical to understanding the earth's hydrologic cycle and global climate changes. Remote sensing from geostationary satellites provides the necessary temporal and spatial resolutions necessary for global change studies. Due to antenna size constraints imposed with the use of microwave radiometers, geostationary satellites have carried instruments passively measuring radiation at infrared wavelengths or shorter. The shortfall of using infrared instruments in moisture studies lies in its inability to sense terrestrial radiation through clouds. Microwave emissions, on the other hand, are mostly unaffected by cloudy atmospheres. Land surface emissivity at microwave frequencies exhibit both high temporal and spatial variability thus confining moisture retrievals at microwave frequencies to over marine atmospheres (a near uniform cold background). This study intercompares the total column integrated water content Precipitable Water, (PW) as derived from both the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) pathfinder data sets. PW is a bulk parameter often used to quantify moisture variability and is important to understanding the earth's hydrologic cycle and climate system. This research has been spawned in an effort to combine two different algorithms which together can lead to a more comprehensive quantification of global water vapor. The approach taken here is to intercompare two independent PW retrieval algorithms and to validate the resultant retrievals against an existing data set, namely the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis data.

Lerner, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

NCAR CCM2 simulation of the modern Antarctic climate

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model version 2 (CCM2) simulation of the circumpolar trough, surface air temperature, the polar vortex, cloudiness, winds, and atmospheric moisture and energy budgets are examined to validate the model's representation of the present-day Antarctic climate. The results show that the CCM2 can well simulate many important climate features over Antarctica, such as the location and intensity of the circumpolar trough, the coreless winter over the plateau, the intensity and horizontal distribution of the surface inversion, the speed and streamline pattern of the katabatic winds, the double jet stream feature over the southern Indian and Pacific oceans, and the arid climate over the continent. However, there are also some serious errors in the model. Some are due to old problems but some are caused by the new parameterizations in the model. The model errors over high southern latitudes can be summarized as follows: The circumpolar trough, the polar vertex, and the westerlies in midlatitudes are too strong; the semiannual cycle of the circumpolar trough is distorted compared to the observations; the low centers of the circumpolar trough and the troughs in the middle and upper troposphere are shifted eastward by 15 deg - 40 deg longitude; the surface temperatures are too cold over the plateau in summer and over the coastline in winter; the polar tropopause continues to have a cold bias; and the cloudiness is too high over the continent. These biases are induced by two major factors: (1) the cloud optical properties in tropical and middle latitudes, which cause the eastward shift of troughs and surface low centers and the error in the semiannual cycle, and (2) the cold bias of the surface air temperature, which is attributed to the oversimulation of cloudiness over the continent, especially during summer, and the uniform 2-m-thick sea ice. The constant thickness of sea ice suppresses the energy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and hence reduces the air temperature near the coast during winter. Finally, although the simulated Antarctic climate still suffers these biases, the overall performance of the CCM2 is much better than that of the CCM1-T42. Therefore the CCM2 is good enough to be used for climate change studies, especially over Antarctica.

Tzeng, Ren-Yow↗

NASA NTRS2022

2021 Antarctic Ozone Hole [in “State of the Climate in 2021"]

The 2021 Antarctic ozone hole was the 13th largest in 42 years of satellite observations since 1979, with an area of 23.34 × 106 km 2 (the average area for 7 September–13 October) and a minimum daily total ozone column of 92 DU. The 2021 polar stratospheric vortex was stable with consistently cold temperatures that created favorable conditions for ozone depletion. The meteorological conditions and seasonal development of the ozone hole in 2021 were similar to those in 2020. Weaker-than-usual amplitudes of planetary scale Rossby waves in the September–October period helped maintain a strong vortex and led to below-average Antarctic ozone columns in late austral spring and early summer.

Natalya A Kramarova↗

NASA NTRS2022

Orbital Trade Study for the PREFIRE Mission

The Polar Radiant Energy in the Far-Infrared Experiment (PREFIRE) is a low-cost cubesat-based Earth Science mission selected for rapid implementation through NASAs Earth Ventures-Instrument program. Two cubesats carrying thermal infrared spectrometers (TIRS) in polar orbits will test long-held assumptions regarding radiative balance at long wavelengths where the cold-dry Arctic and Antarctic surfaces expel significant amounts of the earth's radiant energy. Thermal radiometry with better than one micron sampling at wavelengths beyond 15 microns will provide critical observational bounds for inputs into glacier melt and climate change models through improvements in surface emissivities, longwave greenhouse effect parameterizations, and cloud presence/types. Additional information on potential far-infrared surface/atmosphere feedbacks during rapid melt processes may be captured with sub-diurnal revisits of targeted areas. A baseline mission with two cubesats in different orbits provides a means for optimization of sub-diurnal sampling for science purposes. In this presentation we provide details of orbit studies that inform expected sampling metrics. Candidate orbits are modeled in SGP and then TIRS sampling is projected into surface footprints with appropriate geo-location. Matching algorithms then compile statistics for time-delayed revisits between and within the two orbits. Binning of results by latitude allows for abstraction of precession issues as well as for correlations with surface types as defined by radiometric classification schemes. Multiple acceptable pairs of science-driven orbits were found that optimize sampling in areas known to experience rapid melt events. The final choice of PREFIRE orbital parameters includes the systems trade-space, particularly the power budget, as well as the availability of launch opportunities.

"L'Ecuyer, Tristan"↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the basic mechanisms by which extremes vary is incomplete. As noted in IPCC (2007), Incomplete global data sets and remaining model uncertainties still restrict understanding of changes in extremes and attribution of changes to causes, although understanding of changes in the intensity, frequency and risk of extremes has improved. Separating decadal and other shorter-term variability from climate change impacts on extremes requires a better understanding of the processes responsible for the changes. In particular, the physical processes linking sea surface temperature changes to regional climate changes, and a basic understanding of the inherent variability in weather extremes and how that is impacted by atmospheric circulation changes at subseasonal to decadal and longer time scales, are still inadequately understood. Given the fundamental limitations in the time span and quality of global observations, substantial progress on these issues will rely increasingly on improvements in models, with observations continuing to play a critical role, though less as a detection tool, and more as a tool for addressing physical processes, and to insure the quality of the climate models and the verisimilitude of the simulations (CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008).

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗