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NASA NTRS2011

Phenology Shifts at Start vs. End of Growing Season in Temperate Vegetation Over the Northern Hemisphere for the Period 1982-2008

Changes in vegetative growing seasons are dominant indicators of the dynamic response of ecosystems to climate change. Therefore, knowledge of growing seasons over the past decades is essential to predict ecosystem changes. In this study, the long-term changes in the growing seasons of temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere were examined by analyzing satellite-measured normalized difference vegetation index and reanalysis temperature during 1982 2008. Results showed that the length of the growing season (LOS) increased over the analysis period; however, the role of changes at the start of the growing season (SOS) and at the end of the growing season (EOS) differed depending on the time period. On a hemispheric scale, SOS advanced by 5.2 days in the early period (1982-1999) but advanced by only 0.2 days in the later period (2000-2008). EOS was delayed by 4.3 days in the early period, and it was further delayed by another 2.3 days in the later period. The difference between SOS and EOS in the later period was due to less warming during the preseason (January-April) before SOS compared with the magnitude of warming in the preseason (June September) before EOS. At a regional scale, delayed EOS in later periods was shown. In North America, EOS was delayed by 8.1 days in the early period and delayed by another 1.3 days in the later period. In Europe, the delayed EOS by 8.2 days was more significant than the advanced SOS by 3.2 days in the later period. However, in East Asia, the overall increase in LOS during the early period was weakened in the later period. Admitting regional heterogeneity, changes in hemispheric features suggest that the longer-lasting vegetation growth in recent decades can be attributed to extended leaf senescence in autumn rather than earlier spring leaf-out. Keywords: climate change, growing season, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), Northern Hemisphere, phenology,

Jeong, Su-Jong↗

NASA NTRS2011

Capabilities and Limitations of MISR Aerosol Products in Dust-Laden Regions

Atmospheric mineral dust particles have significant effects on climate and the environment, and despite notable advances in modeling and satellite and ground-based measurements, remain one of the major factors contributing to large uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing. We examine the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) 11+ year aerosol data record to demonstrate MISR's unique strengths and assess potential biases of MISR products for dust study applications. In particular, we examine MISR's unique capabilities to 1) distinguish dust aerosol from spherical aerosol types, 2) provide aerosol optical depths over bright desert source regions, and 3) provide high-resolution retrievals of dust plume heights and associated winds. We show examples of regional and global MISR data products in dusty regions together with quantitative evaluations of product accuracies through comparisons with independent data sources, and demonstrate applications of MISR data to dust regional and climatological studies, such as dust property evolution during transport, dust source climatology in relation to climatic factors, and dust source dynamics. The potential use of MISR radiance data to study dust properties is also discussed.

dust aerosol↗

NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Evolution of Saturn's Polar Temperatures and Composition

The seasonal evolution of Saturn's polar atmospheric temperatures and hydrocarbon composition is derived from a decade of Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) 7-16 micrometers thermal infrared spectroscopy. We construct a near-continuous record of atmospheric variability poleward of 60 deg from northern winter/southern summer (2004, Ls = 293 deg) through the equinox (2009, Ls= 0 deg) to northern spring/southern autumn (2014, Ls = 56 deg). The hot tropospheric polar cyclones that are entrained by pro-grade jets within 2-3 deg of each pole, and the hexagonal shape of the north polar belt, are both persistent features throughout the decade of observations. The hexagon vertices rotated westward by approx. equal to 30 deg longitude between March 2007 and April 2013, confirming that they are not stationary in the Voyager-defined System III longitude system as previously thought. Tropospheric temperature contrasts between the cool polar zones (near 80-85 deg) and warm polar belts (near 75-80 deg) have varied in both hemispheres, resulting in changes to the vertical wind shear on the zonal jets in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The extended region of south polar stratospheric emission has cooled dramatically poleward of the sharp temperature gradient near 75 deg S (by approximately -5 K/yr), coinciding with a depletion in the abundances of acetylene (0030 +/- 0.005 ppm/yr) and ethane (0.35 +/- 0.1 ppm/yr), and suggestive of stratospheric upwelling with vertical wind speeds of w approx. equal to +0.1 mm/s. The upwelling appears most intense within 5 deg latitude of the south pole. This is mirrored by a general warming of the northern polar stratosphere (+5 K/yr) and an enhancement in acetylene (0.030 +/- 0.003 ppm/yr) and ethane (0.45 +/- 0.1 ppm/yr) abundances that appears to be most intense poleward of 75 deg N, suggesting subsidence at w approx. equal to -0.15 mm/ s. However, the sharp gradient in stratospheric emission expected to form near 75 deg N by northern summer solstice (2017, Ls = 90 deg) has not yet been observed, so we continue to await the development of a northern summer stratospheric vortex. The peak stratospheric warming in the north occurs at lower pressure levels (p less than 1 mbar) than the peak stratospheric cooling in the south (p greater than 1 mbar). Vertical motions are derived from both the temperature field (using the measured rates of temperature change and the deviations from the expectations of radiative equilibrium models) and hydrocarbon distributions (solving the continuity equation). Vertical velocities tend towards zero in the upper troposphere where seasonal temperature contrasts are smaller, except within the tropospheric polar cyclones where w approx. equal to +0.02 mm/s. North polar minima in tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures were detected in 2008-2010 (lagging one season, or 6-8 years, behind winter solstice); south polar maxima appear to have occurred before the start of the Cassini observations (1-2 years after summer solstice), consistent with the expectations of radiative climate models. The influence of dynamics implies that the coldest winter temperatures occur in the 75-80 deg region in the stratosphere, and in the cool polar zones in the troposphere, rather than at the poles themselves. In addition to vertical motions, we propose that the UV-absorbent polar stratospheric aerosols entrained within Saturn's vortices contribute significantly to the radiative budget at the poles, adding to the localized enhancement in the south polar cooling and north polar warming poleward of +/-75 deg.

polar temperatures↗

NASA NTRS2018

Connecting Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions to Local and Remote Precipitation Responses

The unintended climatic implications of aerosol and precursor emission reductions implemented to protect public health are poorly understood. We investigate the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry-climate models: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3), NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1), and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 (GISS-E2). Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160-240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the significance of precipitation responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. Global and regional precipitation mostly increases when we reduce regional aerosol emissions in the models, with the strongest responses occurring for sulfur dioxide emissions reductions from Europe and the United States. Precipitation responses to aerosol emissions reductions are largest in the tropics and project onto the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regressing precipitation onto an Indo-Pacific zonal sea level pressure gradient index (a proxy for ENSO) indicates that the ENSO component of the precipitation response to regional aerosol removal can be as large as 20% of the total simulated response. Precipitation increases in the Sahel in response to aerosol reductions in remote regions because an anomalous interhemispheric temperature gradient alters the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This mechanism holds across multiple aerosol reduction simulations and models.

Westervelt, Daniel M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Laboratory for Atmospheres Instrument Systems Report

Studies of the atmospheres of our solar system's planets including our own require a comprehensive set of observations, relying on instruments on spacecraft, aircraft, balloons, and on the surface. These instrument systems perform one or both of the following: 1) provide information leading to a basic understanding of the relationship between atmospheric systems and processes, and 2) serve as calibration references for satellite instrument validation. Laboratory personnel define requirements, conceive concepts, and develop instrument systems for spaceflight missions, and for balloon, aircraft, and ground-based observations. Balloon and airborne platforms facilitate regional measurements of precipitation, cloud systems, and ozone from high-altitude vantage points, but still within the atmosphere. Such platforms serve as stepping-stones in the development of space instruments. Satellites provide nearly global coverage of the Earth with spatial resolutions and repetition rates that vary from system to system. The products of atmospheric remote sensing are invaluable for research associated with water vapor, ozone, trace gases, aerosol particles, clouds, precipitation, and the radiative and dynamic processes that affect the climate of the Earth. These parameters also provide the basic information needed to develop models of global atmospheric processes and weather and climate prediction. Laboratory scientists also participate in the design of data processing algorithms, calibration techniques, and the data processing systems.

Platnick, Steven E.↗

NASA NTRS1996

NASA Scatterometer Experiment

Satellite scatterometers are microwave radars capable of measuring near-surface vector winds (both speed and direction) over the oceans under all weather conditions. The data generated from these instruments are used in scientific studies of upper ocean circulation, tropospheric dynamics, air -sea interaction, and climate change.

satellite↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sub-Seasonal Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon Transport of CO and Aerosols to the UTLS and Implications for Global Atmospheric Composition

The upper troposphere/ lower stratosphere (UTLS) is a climate sensitive region. The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is a major component in the climate system. It transports aerosols and trace gases from the most polluted regions in Asia to UTLS where they spread out to the global atmosphere. Although ASM is a seasonal phenomenon with strongest global influences usually seen in summer, it is highly dynamic and connected to other weather and climate systems, with significant spatial and temporal variability ranging from sub-seasonal weather scale to multi-year climate scale. The interplay of multi-scale dynamics inevitably determines the variability of the transport pathways and atmospheric composition in the UTLS.

sub-seasonal variability↗

NASA NTRS2017

Global Wetland Contribution to 2000-2012 Atmospheric Methane Growth Rate Dynamics

Increasing atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have contributed to approximately 20% of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the importance of CH4 as a greenhouse gas, its atmospheric growth rate and dynamics over the past two decades, which include a stabilization period (1999-2006), followed by renewed growth starting in 2007, remain poorly understood. We provide an updated estimate of CH4 emissions from wetlands, the largest natural global CH4 source, for 2000-2012 using an ensemble of biogeochemical models constrained with remote sensing surface inundation and inventory-based wetland area data. Between 2000-2012, boreal wetland CH4 emissions increased by 1.2 Tg yr(sup -1) (-0.2-3.5 Tg yr(sup -1), tropical emissions decreased by 0.9 Tg yr(sup -1) (-3.2-1.1 Tg yr(sup -1), yet globally, emissions remained unchanged at 184 +/- 22 Tg yr(sup -1). Changing air temperature was responsible for increasing high-latitude emissions whereas declines in low-latitude wetland area decreased tropical emissions; both dynamics are consistent with features of predicted centennial-scale climate change impacts on wetland CH4 emissions. Despite uncertainties in wetland area mapping, our study shows that global wetland CH4 emissions have not contributed significantly to the period of renewed atmospheric CH4 growth, and is consistent with findings from studies that indicate some combination of increasing fossil fuel and agriculture-related CH4 emissions, and a decrease in the atmospheric oxidative sink.

Poulter, Benjamin↗

NASA NTRS1991

Increased ocean heat transports and warmer climate

The impact of an increased ocean heat transport on climate is investigated in the framework of the GISS GMC model described by Hansen et al. (1983), using two scenarios: one starting from warmer polar temperatures/no sea ice and the other from the current ocean conditions. A 20-percent increase in cross-equatorial heat transport was sufficient to melt all sea ice; it resulted in a climate that was 2 C warmer for the global average, with values some 20-deg warmer at high altitudes and 1-deg warmer near the equator. It is suggested that the hydrological and dynamical changes associated with this different climate regime may be self-sustaining and, as such, would account for the high-latitude warmth of climates in the Mesozoic and Tertiary periods and the decadenal-scale climate fluctuations during the Holocene.

Rind, D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Mechanism For Solar Forcing of Climate: Did the Maunder Minimum Cause the Little Ice Age?

The mechanism we wish to demonstrate exploits chemical, radiative, and dynamical sensitivities in the stratosphere to affect the climate of the troposphere. The sun, while its variability in total radiative output over the course of the solar cycle is on the order of 0.1%, exhibits variability in the UV output on the order of 5%. We expect to show that a substantially decreased solar UV output lessened the heating of the Earth's stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum, through decreased radiative absorption by ozone and oxygen. These changes in stratospheric heating would lead to major changes in the stratospheric zonal wind pattern which would in turn affect the propagation characteristics of planetary-scale waves launched in the winter hemisphere. Until recently, there was no quantitative data to relate the changes in the stratosphere to those at the surface. There is now empirical evidence from the NCEP Reanalysis data that a definitive effect of the solar cycle on climate in the troposphere exists. Our recent work is summarized as follows (see complete list of publications in later part of this report).

Yung, Yuk L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

PM2.5↗

NASA NTRS2011

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 510 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modelling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modelling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.

Atmosphere climate chemistry↗

NASA NTRS1984

Study of the dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone with a symmetric version of the GLAS climate model

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Goswami, B. N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ROCKE-3D 2.0: An Updated General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics), the generalized 3-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. ROCKE-3D version 2.0 is a descendant of GISS ModelE2.1, the flagship GCM of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) used in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. ROCKE-3D is a continuous effort to expand the capabilities of GISS ModelE to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including different atmospheric planet sizes, gravities, pressures, rotation rates, more diverse chemistries and atmospheric compositions, diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. We present in this release many more supported configurations which can serve as starting points to simulate terrestrial planets of interest. Two different radiation schemes are supported, the GISS radiation, valid for Earth-like planets, and SOCRATES, which is more generalized but requires more CPU resources. In addition, three different atmospheric compositions are supported, three ocean configurations (prescribed, q-flux, and dynamic), and two resolutions: the medium resolution (4 x 5 degrees in latitude x longitude) used in ROCKE-3D 1.0, and the fine resolution, which has double the resolution in the atmosphere and 4 times the resolution in the ocean. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.

ROCKE-3D↗

NASA NTRS2023

Stratospheric Water Vapor Affecting Atmospheric Circulation

Water vapor plays an important role in many aspects of the climate system, by affecting radiation, cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Even the low stratospheric water vapor content provides an important climate feedback, but current climate models show a substantial moist bias in the lowermost stratosphere. Here we report crucial sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere to the abundance of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere. We show from a mechanistic climate model experiment and inter-model variability that lowermost stratospheric water vapor decreases local temperatures, and thereby causes an upward and poleward shift of subtropical jets, a strengthening of the stratospheric circulation, a poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet and regional climate impacts. The mechanistic model experiment in combination with atmospheric observations further shows that the prevailing moist bias in current models is likely caused by the transport scheme, and can be alleviated by employing a less diffusive Lagrangian scheme. The related effects on atmospheric circulation are of similar magnitude as climate change effects. Hence, lowermost stratospheric water vapor exerts a first order effect on atmospheric circulation and improving its representation in models offers promising prospects for future research.

stratosphere↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

Ghil, M.↗