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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar ) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H + ] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10 . We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere. Part 2: Validation of Large-Scale Transport and Evaluation of Climate Response

Here we examine the large‐scale transport characteristics of the new ``Middle Atmosphere" NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model (E2.2). First we evaluate the stratospheric transport circulation in historical atmosphere‐only simulations integrated with interactive trace gas and aerosol chemistry. Compared to lower vertical resolution model versions, E2.2 exhibits improved tropical ascent and older stratospheric mean ages that are more consistent with observed values. In the troposphere, poleward transport to the Arctic and interhemispheric mean ages in E2.2 are comparable to models participating in the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. In addition to validating E2.2 we also assess its ``transport sensitivity" using the coupled atmosphere‐ocean abrupt 4xCO2 and transient 1%CO2 simulations submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, along with a 2xCO2 simulation used to evaluate the linearity of the transport circulation's response to increased CO2. We show that decreases (increases) in a stratospheric mean age (idealized surface loss) tracer scale linearly with increased lower stratospheric upwelling, which also increases linearly with warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Abrupt 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 experiments constrained with (fixed) pre‐industrial SSTs are also used to quantify the relative importance of rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks to the transport circulation responses in the model. Finally, sensitivity experiments are presented to illustrate the impact of changes in the convective parameterization on stratospheric transport.

GISS Model E2.2↗
DOE OSTI2015

Model performance in spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation: New methods for identifying value added by a regional climate model: Value added by a regional climate model

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a standard tool for downscaling climate forecasts to finer spatial scales. The evaluation of RCMs against observational data is an important step in building confidence in the use of RCMs for future prediction. In addition to model performance in climatological means and marginal distributions, a model’s ability to capture spatio-temporal relationships is important. This study develops two approaches: (1) spatial correlation/variogram for a range of spatial lags, with total monthly precipitation and non-seasonal precipitation components used to assess the spatial variations of precipitation; and (2) spatio-temporal correlation for a wide range of distances, directions, and time lags, with daily precipitation occurrence used to detect the dynamic features of precipitation. These measures of spatial and spatio-temporal dependence are applied to a high-resolution RCM run and to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP II reanalysis data (NCEP-R2), which provides initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RCM. The RCM performs better than NCEP-R2 in capturing both the spatial variations of total and non-seasonal precipitation components and the spatio-temporal correlations of daily precipitation occurrences, which are related to dynamic behaviors of precipitating systems. The improvements are apparent not just at resolutions finer than that of NCEP-R2, but also when the RCM and observational data are aggregated to the resolution of NCEP-R2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning feature analysis illuminates disparity between E3SM climate models and observed climate change

In September of 2020, Arctic sea ice extent was the second-lowest on record. State of the art climate prediction uses Earth system models (ESMs), driven by systems of differential equations representing the laws of physics. Previously, these models have tended to underestimate Arctic sea ice loss. The issue is grave because accurate modeling is critical for economic, ecological, and geopolitical planning. We use machine learning techniques, including random forest regression and Gini importance, to show that the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) relies too heavily on just one of the ten chosen climatological quantities to predict September sea ice averages. Furthermore, E3SM gives too much importance to six of those quantities when compared to observed data. Finally, identifying the features that climate models incorrectly rely on should allow climatologists to improve prediction accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Will Increase Biomass Proportion of Global Forest Carbon Stocks Under an SSP5–8.5 Climate Trajectory

Abstract A large amount of carbon is stored in global forests. However, the fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon (SOC) varies among forest types, and potential changes over the 21st century are uncertain. Here, we used extensive data derived from inventories and remote sensing and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine the current and 21st century dynamics in the proportion of biomass and SOC across global forests. We found that precipitation, elevation, soil, and wildfire were the primary controls of these differences in carbon pools. Under the SSP5–8.5 climate scenario, CMIP6 models project that the ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase across the 21st century, with the largest increases in boreal forests (95 ± 37%) compared to moist tropical forests (16 ± 15%). Changes in forest carbon pools resulting in greater biomass fraction will affect disturbance, and ecosystem carbon and energy balances, all of which interact with the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Climate-resilient agroforestry: physiological responses to climate change and engineering of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) as a mitigation strategy: CAM engineering in trees

We know that global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour–pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. One approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO 2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAMmembers of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. Moreover, the introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Improved Representation of Surface Spectral Emissivity in a Global Climate Model and Its Impact on Simulated Climate

Surface longwave emissivity can be less than unity and vary significantly with frequency. However, most climate models still assume a blackbody surface in the longwave (LW) radiation scheme of their atmosphere models. This study incorporates realistic surface spectral emissivity into the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), version 1.1.1, and evaluates its impact on simulated climate. By ensuring consistency of the broadband surface longwave flux across different components of the CESM, the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) energy balance in the modified model can be attained without retuning the model. Inclusion of surface spectral emissivity, however, leads to a decrease of net upward longwave flux at the surface and a comparable increase of latent heat flux. Global-mean surface temperature difference between the modified and standard CESM simulation is 0.20 K for the fully coupled run and 0.45 K for the slab-ocean run. Noticeable surface temperature differences between the modified and standard CESM simulations are seen over the Sahara Desert and polar regions. Accordingly, the climatological mean sea ice fraction in the modified CESM simulation can be less than that in the standard CESM simulation by as much as 0.1 in some regions. When spectral emissivities of sea ice and open ocean surfaces are considered, the broadband LW sea ice emissivity feedback is estimated to be −0.003 W m −2 K −1 , assuming flat ice emissivity as sea ice emissivity, and 0.002 W m −2 K −1 , assuming coarse snow emissivity as sea ice emissivity, which are two orders of magnitude smaller than the surface albedo feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impacts of horizontal resolution on the seasonally-dependent biases of the northeastern Pacific ITCZ in coupled climate models.

Double-ITCZ has puzzled climate model community for more than two decades. Here, we found that over the eastern Pacific, precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the NCAR CESM1 are seasonally-dependent, with positive (negative) precipitation/SST biases during boreal summer/fall (winter/spring), although the easterly wind bias persists around the year. This seasonally-dependent bias of precipitation/SST is found to be caused by the failure of the model to reproduce the climatological seasonal wind reversal of North American monsoon. During winter/spring, the climatological easterly wind dominates, so the stronger wind speed in the model enhances the evaporation and lowers the SST. It is opposite when the climatological wind turns to westerly during summer/fall. The easterly wind bias also occurs in the atmospheric model when the observation SST is prescribed, suggesting it is of atmospheric origin. Further, the easterly wind bias is mainly evident in the lower troposphere and quite independent of time, implying the effect of complex and narrow-ranged Central American topography, which is not depicted well in the coarse model resolution. When the model resolution is doubled, both SST and precipitation are improved with the reduced easterly wind bias. During boreal spring, when ITCZ bias is most significant, the northern and southern ITCZ can be improved by 29% and 18.8% respectively in the higher resolution. Finally, we suggest that these seasonally-dependent biases over the eastern Pacific are quite universal among 37 CMIP5 coupled models, and the ongoing CMIP6 project will provide a valuable opportunity to examine whether the bias can be reduced by increasing model resolution.

Song, Fengfei↗
DOE OSTI2018

Climate Change Impacts on Natural Sulfur Production: Ocean Acidification and Community Shifts

Utilizing the reduced-complexity model Hector, a regional scale analysis was conducted quantifying the possible effects climate change may have on dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emissions within the oceans. The investigation began with a review of the sulfur cycle in modern Earth system models. We then expanded the biogeochemical representation within Hector to include a natural ocean component while accounting for acidification and planktonic community shifts. The report presents results from both a latitudinal and a global perspective. This new approach highlights disparate outcomes which have been inadequately characterized via planetary averages in past publications. Our findings suggest that natural sulfur emissions (ESN) may exert a forcing up to 4 times that of the CO 2 marine feedback, 0.62 and 0.15 Wm –2 , respectively, and reverse the radiative forcing sign in low latitudes. Additionally, sensitivity tests were conducted to demonstrate the need for further examination of the DMS loop. As a result, the present work attempts to include dynamic ESN within reduced-complexity simulations of the sulfur cycle, illustrating its impact on the global radiative budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth’s, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Sensitivity of Tropospheric Chemical Composition to Halogen-Radical Chemistry Using a Fully Coupled Size-Resolved Multiphase Chemistry-Global Climate System: Halogen Distributions, Aerosol Composition, and Sensitivity of Climate-Relevant Gases

Observations and model studies suggest a significant but highly non-linear role for halogens, primarily Cl and Br, in multiphase atmospheric processes relevant to tropospheric chemistry and composition, aerosol evolution, radiative transfer, weather, and climate. The sensitivity of global atmospheric chemistry to the production of marine aerosol and the associated activation and cycling of inorganic Cl and Br was tested using a size-resolved multiphase coupled chemistry/global climate model (National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Atmosphere Model (CAM); v3.6.33). Simulation results showed strong meridional and vertical gradients in Cl and Br species. The simulation reproduced most available observations with reasonable confidence permitting the formulation of potential mechanisms for several previously unexplained halogen phenomena including the enrichment of Br- in submicron aerosol, and the presence of a BrO maximum in the polar free troposphere. However, simulated total volatile Br mixing ratios were generally high in the troposphere. Br in the stratosphere was lower than observed due to the lack of long-lived organobromine species in the simulation. Comparing simulations using chemical mechanisms with and without reactive Cl and Br species demonstrated a significant temporal and spatial sensitivity of primary atmospheric oxidants (O3, HOx, NOx), CH4, and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC’s) to halogen cycling. Simulated O3 and NOx were globally lower (65% and 35%, respectively, less in the planetary boundary layer based on median values) in simulations that included halogens. Globally, little impact was seen in SO2 and non-sea-salt SO42- processing due to halogens. Significant regional differences were evident: The lifetime of nss-SO42- was extended downwind of large sources of SO2. The burden and lifetime of DMS (and its oxidation products) were lower by a factor of 5 in simulations that included halogens, versus those without, leading to a 20% reduction in nss-SO42- in the southern hemisphere planetary boundary layer based on median values.

chemical composition↗
DOE OSTI2020

NREL’s Collaboration with Alaska’s Cold Climate Housing Research Center Builds Mission Impact in Extreme Climates

A new collaboration between NREL and CCHRC represents the combination of NREL’s wealth of knowledge and experience in the building technology space with decades of experience researching building technologies in extreme climates by CCHRC. The collaboration generates potential for creative, new ideas, creates opportunities for researchers on both ends, and rapidly expands NREL’s mission impact on a global scale by granting it access to Arctic climates, test facilities at CCHRC, and new insight into the local landscape and native challenges.

Alaska↗
DOE OSTI2020

NREL’s Collaboration with Alaska’s Cold Climate Housing Research Center Builds Mission Impact in Extreme Climates

A new collaboration between NREL and CCHRC represents the combination of NREL’s wealth of knowledge and experience in the building technology space with decades of experience researching building technologies in extreme climates by CCHRC. The collaboration generates potential for creative, new ideas, creates opportunities for researchers on both ends, and rapidly expands NREL’s mission impact on a global scale by granting it access to Arctic climates, test facilities at CCHRC, and new insight into the local landscape and native challenges.

Alaska↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges: Dryland Climate Change

Drylands are home to more than 38% of the world's population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities. This review describes recent progress in dryland climate change research. Recent findings indicate that the long-term trend of the aridity index (AI) is mainly attributable to increased greenhouse gas emissions, while anthropogenic aerosols exert small effects but alter its attributions. Atmosphere-land interactions determine the intensity of regional response. The largest warming during the last 100 years was observed over drylands and accounted for more than half of the continental warming. The global pattern and interdecadal variability of aridity changes are modulated by oceanic oscillations. The different phases of those oceanic oscillations induce significant changes in land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts, which affect the intensity of the westerlies and planetary waves and the blocking frequency, thereby altering global changes in temperature and precipitation. During 1948–2008, the drylands in the Americas became wetter due to enhanced westerlies, whereas the drylands in the Eastern Hemisphere became drier because of the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Drylands as defined by the AI have expanded over the last 60 years and are projected to expand in the 21st century. The largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semiarid regions since the early 1960s. Dryland expansion will lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming, and rapidly growing population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in developing countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Coccidioidomycosis Dynamics in Relation to Climate in the Southwestern United States: Cocci. and climate in the SW U.S.

Valley fever is endemic to the southwestern United States. Humans contract this fungal disease by inhaling spores of Coccidioides spp. Changes in the environment can influence the abundance and dispersal of Coccidioides spp., causing fluctuations in valley fever incidence. We combined county-level case records from state health agencies to create a regional valley fever database for the southwestern United States, including Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. We used this data set to explore how environmental factors influenced the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of valley fever incidence during 2000–2015. We compiled climate and environmental geospatial data sets from multiple sources to compare with valley fever incidence. These variables included air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, surface dust concentration, normalized difference vegetation index, and cropland area. We found that valley fever incidence was greater in areas with warmer air temperatures and drier soils. The mean annual cycle of incidence varied throughout the southwestern United States and peaked following periods of low precipitation and soil moisture. From year-to-year, however, autumn incidence was higher following cooler, wetter, and productive springs in the San Joaquin Valley of California. In southcentral Arizona, incidence increased significantly through time. By 2015, incidence in this region was more than double the rate in the San Joaquin Valley. Our analysis provides a framework for interpreting the influence of climate change on valley fever incidence dynamics. Our results may allow the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to improve their estimates of the spatial pattern and intensity of valley fever endemicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the midlatitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in nine model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor, and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. Furthermore, an in‐depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although nonnegligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud radiative effects dominate in the cloud‐related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while other models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Novel climates reverse carbon uptake of atmospherically dependent epiphytes: Climatic constraints on the iconic boreal forest lichen Evernia mesomorpha

Premise of the Study: Changing climates are expected to affect the abundance and distribution of global vegetation, especially plants and lichens with an epiphytic lifestyle and direct exposure to atmospheric variation. The study of epiphytes could improve understanding of biological responses to climatic changes, but only if the conditions that elicit physiological performance changes are clearly defined.Methods: We evaluated individual growth performance of the epiphytic lichen Evernia mesomorpha, an iconic boreal forest indicator species, in the first year of a decade-long experiment featuring whole-ecosystem warming and drying. Field experimental enclosures were located near the southern edge of the species’ range.Key Results: Mean annual biomass growth of Evernia significantly declined 6 percentage points for every +1°C of experimental warming after accounting for interactions with atmospheric drying. Mean annual biomass growth was 14% in ambient treatments, 2% in unheated control treatments, and -9% to -19% (decreases) in energy-added treatments ranging from +2.25 to +9.00°C above ambient temperatures. Warming-induced biomass losses among persistent individuals were suggestive evidence of an extinction debt that could precede further local mortality events.Conclusions: Changing patterns of warming and drying would decrease or reverse Evernia growth at its southern range margins, with potential consequences for the maintenance of local and regional populations. Negative carbon balances among persisting individuals could physiologically commit these epiphytes to local extinction. Our findings illuminate the processes underlying local extinctions of epiphytes and suggest broader consequences for range shrinkage if dispersal and recruitment rates cannot keep pace.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗