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At least 253 records · Page 14

Recipes for a Successful Exit for Clean- and Hard-tech Startups

This study demonstrates the combinations of multiple causal factors that formulate a startup’s strategy to successfully “exit”, namely “recipes for a successful exit,” in the clean- and hard-tech sector. We identify seven key causal factors (i.e., causal conditions) that impact startup success, including commercial readiness, investor interactions, favorable industry, non-financial support, straightforward development path, experienced team, and visibility to investors. We also investigate the combinations of selective causal conditions that can provide further synergetic impact. We conduct the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) on seven US clean and hard-tech startups that exited between 2005 and 2016. The successful companies all demonstrate distinctive characteristics based on three general categories (1) robust ecosystem; (2) heavy-lifting team; or (3) external opportunity. Across these three categories, commercial readiness and strong investor interactions are necessary conditions for all exit cases. But there are important differences that drive success in each category, such as the interaction with non-financial support (in the robust ecosystem case), experienced team (in the heavy-lifting team case), and favorable industry (in the external opportunity case). Furthermore, our findings are meant to support entrepreneurs in reaching an exit by optimizing the given internal and external circumstances, and policymakers to build a robust ecosystem that can increase the success rate of the clean- and hardtech development.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Understanding How Reservoir Operations Influence Methane Emissions: A Conceptual Model

Because methane is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG), understanding controls on methane emissions from reservoirs is an important goal. Yet, reservoirs are complex ecosystems, and mechanisms by which reservoir operations influence methane emissions are poorly understood. In part, this is because emissions occur in ‘hot spots’ and ‘hot moments’. In this study, we address three research questions, ‘What are the causal pathways through which reservoir operations and resulting water level fluctuations (WLF) influence methane emissions?’; ‘How do influences from WLF differ for seasonal drawdown and diurnal hydropeaking operations?’; and ‘How does understanding causal pathways inform practical options for mitigation?’. A graphical conceptual model is presented that links WLF in reservoirs to methane emissions via four causal pathways: (1) water-column mixing (2) drying–rewetting cycles, (3) sediment delivery and redistribution, and (4) littoral vegetation. We review what is known about linkages for WLF at seasonal and diurnal resolutions generate research questions, and hypothesize strategies for moderating methane emissions by interrupting each causal pathway. Those related to flow management involve basin-scale management of tributary flows, seasonal timing of hydropeaking (pathway #1), timing and rates of drawdown (pathway #2). In addition, we describe how sediment (pathway #3) and vegetation management (pathway #4) could interrupt linkages between WLF and emissions. We demonstrate the strength of conceptual modeling as a tool for generating plausible hypotheses and suggesting mitigation strategies. Future research is needed to develop simpler models at appropriate timescales that can be validated and used to manage flow releases from reservoirs.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Cardinality-Regularized Hawkes-Granger Model

We propose a new sparse Granger-causal learning framework for temporal event data. We focus on a specific class of point processes called the Hawkes process. We begin by pointing out that most of the existing sparse causal learning algorithms for the Hawkes process suffer from a singularity in maximum likelihood estimation. As a result, their sparse solutions can appear only as numerical artifacts. In this paper, we propose a mathematically well-defined sparse causal learning framework based on a cardinality-regularized Hawkes process, which remedies the pathological issues of existing approaches. We leverage the proposed algorithm for the task of instance-wise causal event analysis, where sparsity plays a critical role. We validate the proposed framework with two real use-cases, one from the power grid and the other from the cloud data center management domain.

Ide, Tsuyoshi↗

Quantum Gravity and Laser Interferometry: Towards Observable Predictions

Understanding quantum gravity remains one of the deepest challenges in modern physics, as direct experimental access to Planck-scale effects is beyond current technological reach. However, recent theoretical advances indicate that quantum fluctuations of spacetime may produce measurable effects in precision experiments, particularly near causal horizons. This opens new avenues for testing quantum gravity phenomena through high-precision measurement techniques. This dissertation develops multiple theoretical models to characterize these effects and examines their potential observational signatures in future gravitational wave interferometers. We begin by investigating the role of quantum fluctuations in near-horizon geometries through the lens of the AdS/CFT correspondence, which provides a powerful framework for understanding the interplay between quantum field theory and general relativity via holographic principles. By modeling stochastic energy-momentum sources in Rindler-AdS spacetime, we demonstrate that vacuum fluctuations transform the Einstein equations into a Langevin-type stochastic differential equation, leading to potentially observable fluctuations in photon traversal times. Extending this approach to Minkowski spacetime, we establish a correspondence between gravitational shockwaves and fluid dynamics, showing that near-horizon perturbations satisfy an equation analogous to that governing incompressible fluids, thereby reinforcing the membrane paradigm and hydrodynamic analogies in the context of the fluid/gravity duality. Furthermore, we construct the covariant phase space of a spherically symmetric causal diamond in Minkowski spacetime, identifying two fundamental charges that govern its evolution. These results provide a foundation for quantizing causal horizons and understanding their microscopic degrees of freedom. Building upon these theoretical developments, we further examine a related stochastic phenomenon: the gravitational wave memory background arising from the cumulative memory steps produced by supermassive black hole mergers. After reviewing the standard stochastic gravitational wave background, gravitational memory effects, and BMS symmetries, we model the stochastic memory background using a Brownian motion framework. We show that while the cumulative memory background initially appears above the sensitivity curve of space-based interferometers like LISA, the realistic subtraction of individually resolvable merger events substantially suppresses the residual signal, making its detection more challenging. This highlights the critical importance of source subtraction when evaluating the detectability of gravitational memory effects. By bridging fundamental theory with experimental prospects, this dissertation contributes to the ongoing effort to uncover the quantum nature of spacetime through precision measurement techniques. Whether through detecting quantum spacetime fluctuations, gravitational memory backgrounds, or probing the symmetries of causal horizons, the pursuit of observable quantum gravity phenomena continues to expand the frontiers of both theory and experiment.

Zhang, Yiwen [Caltech] (ORCID:0000000323559416)↗

Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations

Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed

Reehorst, Andrew L.↗

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Ancel, Ersin↗

Directed Acyclic Graph Guidance Documentation

For over a decade, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has tracked and configuration-managed approximately 30 risks to astronaut health and performance that occur before, during and after spaceflight. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), a Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) Board at NASA Johnson Space Center, is the entity responsible for identifying, assessing, analyzing, and monitoring the official understanding of the risk or risk posture for each of the Human System Risks and determining – based on evaluation of the available evidence – when that risk posture changes. The ultimate purpose of tracking and researching these risks is to find ways to reduce the risk that astronaut crews face during spaceflight. Historically, research, development and operations relevant to one risk have been conducted in isolation from other risks; these individual risk ‘silos’ enabled initial characterization of each specific risk. In spaceflight however, the impact of exposure to risk for astronaut crews is cumulative, and not independent of exposures or other risks, as all the adverse effects of the spaceflight environment begin at launch, continue throughout the duration of the mission and in some cases across the lifetime of the crews. In January of 2020, the HSRB at NASA embarked on a pilot project designed to assess the potential value of causal diagramming as a tool to facilitate understanding these cumulative and interdependent effects as applied within Human System Risk management. This process uses directed acyclic graphs as a means of formalizing a shared mental model of the causal flow of risk among Risk Board stakeholders. Initially this model was to improve communication among those stakeholders, but the potential value exceeds communication alone. Formalization of the process for creating these causal diagrams will enable the creation of a composite risk network that is vetted by members of the NASA community and configuration managed. The causal diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to function as a type of knowledge graph for reference for the board and its stakeholders. This document outlines the pilot process, the standardized approaches, and guidance for risk custodian teams when creating and updating DAGs as a part of the NASA Human System Risk Management process.

Risk↗

What is the iε for the S-matrix?

Can the S-matrix be complexified in a way consistent with causality? Since the 1960's, the affirmative answer to this question has been well-understood for 2→2 scattering of the lightest particle in theories with a mass gap at low momentum transfer, where the S-matrix is analytic everywhere except at normal-threshold branch cuts. We ask whether an analogous picture extends to realistic theories, such as the Standard Model, that include massless fields, UV/IR divergences, and unstable particles. Especially in the presence of light states running in the loops, the traditional iε prescription for approaching physical regions might break down, because causality requirements for the individual Feynman diagrams can be mutually incompatible. We demonstrate that such analyticity problems are not in contradiction with unitarity. Instead, they should be thought of as finite-width effects that disappear in the idealized 2→2 scattering amplitudes with no unstable particles, but might persist at higher multiplicity. To fix these issues, we propose an iε -like prescription for deforming branch cuts in the space of Mandelstam invariants without modifying the analytic properties. This procedure results in a complex strip around the real part of the kinematic space, where the S-matrix remains causal. In addition to giving a pedagogical introduction to the analytic properties of the perturbative S-matrix from a modern point of view, we illustrate all the points on explicit examples, both symbolically and numerically. Furthermore, to help with the investigation of related questions, we introduce a number of tools, including holomorphic cutting rules, new approaches to dispersion relations, as well as formulae for local behavior of Feynman integrals near branch points.

Anomalous thresholds↗

What can simulation test beds teach us about social science? Results of the ground truth program

The ground truth program used simulations as test beds for social science research methods. The simulations had known ground truth and were capable of producing large amounts of data. This allowed research teams to run experiments and ask questions of these simulations similar to social scientists studying real-world systems, and enabled robust evaluation of their causal inference, prediction, and prescription capabilities. We tested three hypotheses about research effectiveness using data from the ground truth program, specifically looking at the influence of complexity, causal understanding, and data collection on performance. We found some evidence that system complexity and causal understanding influenced research performance, but no evidence that data availability contributed. The ground truth program may be the first robust coupling of simulation test beds with an experimental framework capable of teasing out factors that determine the success of social science research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing the cumulative effects of nearshore habitat restoration actions for multiple populations of juvenile salmon in Whidbey Basin, Washington: foundation and approach for synthesis and evaluation

Ecosystem restoration is a common tool for re-establishing ecosystem processes, structures, and functions to improve biodiversity and services in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In the Salish Sea, salmon habitats have been fragmented, reduced in size, and diminished in quality, and the ecosystem processes that form and sustain these habitats have been degraded and disrupted as well. This loss is especially prevalent in estuaries, where up to 90% of former salmon habitat has been lost or compromised. Salmon species are integral to the identities and cultures of people in the Pacific Northwest, yet salmon abundances remain at historic lows, especially in urbanized areas. Recent investments in restoration are creating rearing habitat and repairing lost ecosystem function. However, restoration efforts in this region have largely proceeded at the site scale, with less attention to big-picture thinking regarding how restoration will effectively recover degraded or lost habitats for target species. As a result, no landscape-scale evaluation program exists, and the cumulative benefits of multiple interventions are unknown. We describe innovative methods for science synthesis related to the evaluation of cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration for Pacific salmon, using years of existing, but disparate data. Building from previous work on cumulative effects evaluation and incorporating a hierarchy of hypotheses approach, we propose using causal inference across numerous hypotheses in a framework to assess the cumulative benefits to Pacific salmon from multiple estuarine restoration projects. We present the framework as a method that can be used to address many complex questions and provide examples from the Salish Sea where the approach is being implemented. The framework draws on science synthesis from numerous fields and uses a hierarchy of hypotheses, causal analysis at multiple scales, and a new hierarchy of synthesis for assessing multiple lines of evidence documenting restoration effects on Pacific salmon. We propose causal inference to synthesize dissimilar data streams, in our case, to identify various manifestations of cumulative effects of restoration and benefits to salmon, and to further inform restoration and recovery planning. A unifying framework would allow for the detection of thresholds at which restoration provides measurable improvement and would greatly advance understanding of the effects of restoration on ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dispersion formulas in QFTs, CFTs and holography

We study momentum space dispersion formulas in general QFTs and their applications for CFT correlation functions. We show, using two independent methods, that QFT dispersion formulas can be written in terms of causal commutators. The first derivation uses analyticity properties of retarded correlators in momentum space. The second derivation uses the largest time equation and the defining properties of the time-ordered product. At four points we show that the momentum space QFT dispersion formula depends on the same causal double-commutators as the CFT dispersion formula. At n -points, the QFT dispersion formula depends on a sum of nested advanced commutators. For CFT four-point functions, we show that the momentum space dispersion formula is equivalent to the CFT dispersion formula, up to possible semi-local terms. We also show that the Polyakov-Regge expansions associated to the momentum space and CFT dispersion formulas are related by a Fourier transform. In the process, we prove that the momentum space conformal blocks of the causal double-commutator are equal to cut Witten diagrams. Finally, by combining the momentum space dispersion formulas with the AdS Cutkosky rules, we find a complete, bulk unitarity method for AdS/CFT correlators in momentum space.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Evidence for Field-Dependent Charge Separation Caused by Mixed Phases in Polymer–Fullerene Organic Solar Cells

As organic photovoltaic performance approaches 20% efficiencies, causal structure–performance relationships must be established for devices to realize theoretical limits and become commercially competitive. Here, we reveal evidence of a causal relationship between mixed donor–acceptor interfaces and charge generation in polymer–fullerene solar cells. To do this, we combine a holistic loss analysis of device performance with quantitative synchrotron X-ray nanocharacterization to identify a >98% anticorrelation between field-dependent geminate recombination and nanodomain purity. Importantly, our analysis eliminates other possible explanations of the performance trends, a requirement to establish causality. The unprecedented granular level of our analysis also separates field-dependent and field-independent recombination at the interface, where we find for the first time that this system is free of field-independent recombination, a loss channel that plagues high-performance systems, including those with non-fullerene acceptors. Furthermore, this result broadens the case that minimizing mixed phases to promote sharp interfaces between pure aggregated domains is the ideal nanostructure for realizing theoretical efficiency limits of organic photovoltaics.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Potential Vorticity Dynamics Explain How Extratropical Oceans and the Arctic Modulate Wintertime Land–Temperature Variations

Temperature variations across the continental northern hemisphere at the interdecadal scale are thought to be remotely modulated by oceanic internal climate variability and the Arctic. Nevertheless, further elucidating the dynamics is essential for clarifying ongoing debates. We show that potential vorticity (PV) dynamics provide a concise explanation for these teleconnections. Our findings demonstrate that extratropical oceans and the Arctic can remotely modulate the wintertime continental temperature variations by stimulating PV anomalies, which are constrained by climatological PV gradients and jet streams. A causal explanation includes anomalous temperature and precipitation over oceans and the Arctic inducing local PV anomalies via diabatic heating. Subsequently, meridional and downstream advection distributes the anomalous PV to remote land regions where the climatological PV gradients are strong, that is, involving PV fronts, as well as jet streams; therefore, PV fronts and jet streams jointly indicate land regions that are largely and frequently impacted. However, land can also modulate other regions through the same mechanism when variations over land occur in advance. Clear causality depends on which factor is independent, while interactions among those regions may convolute the causality, thereby causing further debates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Testing Hidden Assumptions of Representativeness in Reach-Scale Studies of Hyporheic Exchange

Field studies of hyporheic exchange in mountain systems are often conducted using short study reaches and a limited number of observations. It is common practice to assume these study reaches represent hyporheic exchange at larger scales or different sites and to infer general relationships among potential causal mechanisms from the limited number of observations. However, these assumptions of representativeness are rarely tested. In this study, we develop numerical models from four segments of mountain streams in different geomorphologic settings and extract shorter reaches to test how representative exchange metrics are in shorter reaches compared to their reference segments. We also map the locations of the representative reaches to determine if a pattern exists based on location. Finally, we compare variance of these shorter within-site reaches to 29 additional reaches across the same basin to understand the impacts of inferring causal mechanisms, for example, the expectation that wide and narrow valley bottoms will yield different hyporheic exchange patterns. Our results show that the location and length strategy of the study reach must be considered before assuming an exchange metric to be representative of anything other than the exact segment studied. Further, it is necessary to quantify within and between site variations before making causal inferences based on observable characteristics, such as valley width or stream morphology. Our findings have implications for future field practices and how those practices are translated into models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Targeted seed EMS mutagenesis reveals a basic helix–loop–helix transcription factor underlying male sterility in sorghum

Abstract Forward genetic screens of mutant populations are fundamental for functional genomics studies. However, isolating independent mutant alleles to molecularly identify causal genes is challenging in species recalcitrant to genetic manipulation. Here, we demonstrate that classic seed ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS) mutagenesis coupled with genome sequencing can overcome this limitation in sorghum. We used this method to generate new mutant alleles of sorghum MALE STERILE 8 (MS8) and identified the causal locus for the ms8 phenotype as Sobic.004G270900, which encodes the sorghum ortholog of maize bhlh122, a basic helix–loop–helix (bHLH) transcription factor required for male fertility in maize. Bulked segregant analysis mapped ms8-1 to a region on chromosome 4 containing Sobic.004G270900. Seeds from heterozygous MS8/ms8-1 plants were mutagenized and screened for chimeric inflorescences containing sectors with white, sterile anthers resembling the ms8-1 homozygous phenotype. DNA sequencing of sterile and fertile sectors from a single chimeric inflorescence revealed two mutations in Sobic.004G270900 within the sterile sector, but not the fertile sector. Isolation of this loss-of-function allele (ms8-2) established Sobic.004G270900 as the causative locus for male sterility in the ms8 mutant. We generated additional alleles of MS8 in a different genetic background using CRISPR/Cas9-based gene editing, where deletions in Sobic.004G270900 also resulted in male sterility. Our work identified a gene underlying male sterility in sorghum and provides a novel and straightforward genetic tool for researchers who lack access to advanced transformation facilities to validate gene candidates. Unlike gene editing, no prior knowledge of candidate genes is required for targeted seed EMS mutagenesis to aid identification of causal loci.

Genetics & Heredity↗

Exploring theoretical uncertainties in the hydrodynamic description of relativistic heavy-ion collisions

We explore theoretical uncertainties in the hydrodynamic description of relativistic heavy-ion collisions by examining the full nonlinear causality conditions and quantifying the second-order transport coefficients' role on flow observables. The causality conditions impose physical constraints on the maximum allowed values of inverse Reynolds numbers during the hydrodynamic evolution. Including additional second-order gradient terms in the Denicol-Niemi-Molnár-Rischke (DNMR) theory significantly shrinks the casual regions compared to those in the Israel-Stewart hydrodynamics. For Au + Au collisions, we find the variations of flow observables are small with and without imposing the necessary causality conditions, suggesting a robust extraction of the quark-gluon plasma's transport coefficients in previous model-to-data comparisons. However, sizable sensitivity is present in small p + Au collisions, which poses challenges to study the small systems' collectivity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Complementarity for a dynamical black hole

Black hole complementarity posits that the interior of a black hole is not independent from its Hawking radiation. This leads to an apparent violation of causality: the interior can be acausally affected by operators acting solely on the radiation. We argue that this perspective is misleading and that the black hole interior must be viewed as existing in the causal past of the Hawking radiation, despite the fact that they are spacelike separated in the semiclassical description. Consequently, no operation on the Hawking radiation—no matter how complex—can affect the experience of an infalling observer. The black hole interior and the radiation only appear spacelike separated in the semiclassical description because an infalling observer’s ability to access complex information is limited; the chaotic dynamics on the horizon, as viewed from the exterior, then converts any effect caused by such an observer to information in the Hawking radiation which cannot be accessed at the semiclassical level. We arrive at the picture described above by considering a unitary exterior description in which the flow of information is strictly causal, which we extend to apply throughout the entire history of black hole evolution, including its formation. This description uses the stretched event horizon as an inner edge of spacetime, on which the information inside is holographically encoded. We argue that the global spacetime picture arises from coarse graining over black hole microstates, and discuss its relationship with the exterior description.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Holographic Space-Time and Quantum Information

The formalism of Holographic Space-time (HST) is a translation of the principles of Lorentzian geometry into the language of quantum information. Intervals along time-like trajectories, and their associated causal diamonds, completely characterize a Lorentzian geometry. The Bekenstein-Hawking-Gibbons-’t Hooft-Jacobson-Fischler-Susskind-Bousso Covariant Entropy Principle, equates the logarithm of the dimension of the Hilbert space associated with a diamond to one quarter of the area of the diamond’s holographic screen, measured in Planck units. The most convincing argument for this principle is Jacobson’s derivation of Einstein’s equations as the hydrodynamic expression of this entropy law. In that context, the null energy condition (NEC) is seen to be the analog of the local law of entropy increase. The quantum version of Einstein’s relativity principle is a set of constraints on the mutual quantum information shared by causal diamonds along different time-like trajectories. The implementation of this constraint for trajectories in relative motion is the greatest unsolved problem in HST. The other key feature of HST is its claim that, for non-negative cosmological constant or causal diamonds much smaller than the asymptotic radius of curvature for negative c.c., the degrees of freedom localized in the bulk of a diamond are constrained states of variables defined on the holographic screen. This principle gives a simple explanation of otherwise puzzling features of BH entropy formulae, and resolves the firewall problem for black holes in Minkowski space. It motivates a covariant version of the CKN [1] bound on the regime of validity of quantum field theory (QFT) and a detailed picture of the way in which QFT emerges as an approximation to the exact theory

tensor network↗