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At least 253 records · Page 14

Air quality and health impacts of the 2020 wildfires in California

Abstract Background Wildfires in 2020 ravaged California to set the annual record of area burned to date. Clusters of wildfires in Northern California surrounded the Bay Area covering the skies with smoke and raising the air pollutant concentrations to hazardous levels. This study uses the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research database and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model to estimate the effects of wildfire emissions on air quality during the period from August 16 to October 28 of 2020. In addition, low-cost sensor data for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) from the PurpleAir network is used to enhance modeled PM 2.5 concentrations. The resulting impacts on ozone and PM 2.5 are used to quantify the health impacts caused by wildfires using the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition. Results Wildfire activity significantly increased direct PM 2.5 emissions and emissions of PM 2.5 and ozone precursors. Direct PM 2.5 emissions surged up to 38 times compared to an average day. Modeling results indicated that wildfires alone led to a rise in ozone daily maximum 8-h average by up to 10 ppb and exceeded PM 2.5 air quality standards in numerous locations by up to 10 times. While modeled PM 2.5 concentrations were lower than measurements, correcting these with PurpleAir data improved the accuracy. The correction using PurpleAir data increased estimates of wildfire-induced mortality due to PM 2.5 exposure by up to 16%. Conclusions The increased hospital admissions and premature mortality attributed to wildfires were found to be comparable to the health impacts avoided by strategies aimed at meeting ozone and PM2.5 air quality standards. This suggests that widespread wildfire emissions can negate years of efforts dedicated to controlling air pollution. The integration of low-cost sensor data proved invaluable in refining the estimates of health impacts from PM2.5 resulting from wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the effects of multiple land management practices, land cover change, and wildfire on the California landscape carbon budget with an empirical model

The effectiveness of land-based climate mitigation strategies is generally estimated on a case-by-case basis without considering interactions with other strategies or influencing factors. Here we evaluate a new, comprehensive approach that incorporates interactions among multiple management strategies, land use/cover change, wildfire, and climate, although the potential effects of climate change are not evaluated in this study. The California natural and working lands carbon and greenhouse gas model (CALAND) indicates that summing individual practice estimates of greenhouse gas impacts may underestimate emission reduction benefits in comparison with an integrated estimate. Annual per-area estimates of the potential impact of specific management practices on landscape emissions can vary based on the estimation period, which can be problematic for extrapolating such estimates over space and time. Furthermore, the actual area of implementation is a primary factor in determining potential impacts of management on landscape emissions. Nonetheless, less intensive forest management, avoided conversion to urban land, and urban forest expansion generally create the largest annual per-area reductions, while meadow restoration and forest fuel reduction and harvest practices generally create the largest increases with respect to no management. CALAND also shows that data uncertainty is too high to determine whether California land is a source or a sink of carbon emissions, but that estimating effects of management with respect to a baseline provides valid results. Important sources of this uncertainty are initial carbon density, net ecosystem carbon accumulation rates, and land use/cover change data. The appropriate choice of baseline is critical for generating valid results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic required significant public health interventions from local governments. Although nonpharmaceutical interventions often were implemented as decision rules, few studies evaluated the robustness of those reopening plans under a wide range of uncertainties. This paper uses the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test 78 alternative reopening strategies, using California as an example. This study uniquely considers a wide range of uncertainties and demonstrates that seemingly sensible reopening plans can lead to both unnecessary COVID-19 deaths and days of interventions. We find that plans using fixed COVID-19 case thresholds might be less effective than strategies with time-varying reopening thresholds. While we use California as an example, our results are particularly relevant for jurisdictions where vaccination roll-out has been slower. The approach used in this paper could also prove useful for other public health policy problems in which policymakers need to make robust decisions in the face of deep uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey

The 2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) was administered by the California Department of Transportation, which collected demographic and travel behavior characteristics for residents across the entire state. At the time, it was the largest such regional or statewide survey ever conducted in the United States. Detailed travel behavior information was obtained from more than 42,500 households via multiple data-collection methods, including computer-assisted telephone interviewing, online and mail surveys, wearable (7,574 participants) and in-vehicle (2,910 vehicles) global positioning system devices, and on-board diagnostic sensors that gathered data directly from a vehicle's engine. Details of personal travel behavior were gathered within the region of residence, inter-regionally within the state, and in adjoining states and Mexico. The survey sampling plan was designed to ensure an accurate representation of the entire population of the state. The CHTS included additional features, such as vehicle-acquisition decisions, parking choices, work schedules and flexibility, use of toll lanes/priced facilities, and walk and bicycle trips, to support advanced model development.

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2001-2002 Southern California Regional Travel Survey

The 2001-2002 Southern California Regional Travel Survey collected data on household characteristics and travel behavior to update regional travel demand models. It covered six counties including Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura. The Southern California Association of Governments contracted with NuStats Partners to conduct the survey following the 2000 decennial census. Survey data collection occurred in 2001 and 2002 using computer-assisted telephone interviewing and travel diaries. Roughly 17,000 households completed the survey. An additional global positioning system (GPS) sample was taken for the purpose of auditing the self-reported diaries. Battelle provided data collection support for the GPS sample.

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2019 California Vehicle Survey

The 2019 California Vehicle Survey of residential and commercial light-duty fleet owners in California assessed consumer preferences for vehicles and included a targeted sample of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) owners. In addition to economic and demographic data, the survey integrated light-duty vehicle holding and use information with vehicle choice data, which was collected via a set of eight exercises on vehicle and fuel type choice. The PEV owner survey participants provided additional data on charging behavior, electricity rates, and their main motivations for purchasing PEVs.

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Inferring the Focal Depths of Small Earthquakes in Southern California Using Physics-Based Waveform Features

Determining the depths of small crustal earthquakes is challenging in many regions of the world, because most seismic networks are too sparse to resolve trade-offs between depth and origin time with conventional arrival-time methods. Precise and accurate depth estimation is important, because it can help seismologists discriminate between earthquakes and explosions, which is relevant to monitoring nuclear test ban treaties and producing earthquake catalogs that are uncontaminated by mining blasts. Here, we examine the depth sensitivity of several physics-based waveform features for ~8000 earthquakes in southern California that have well-resolved depths from arrival-time inversion. We focus on small earthquakes (2 < M L < 4) recorded at local distances (<150 km), for which depth estimation is especially challenging. We find that differential magnitudes (M w /M L –M c ) are positively correlated with focal depth, implying that coda wave excitation decreases with focal depth. We analyze a simple proxy for relative frequency content, Φ≡log 10 (M 0 )+3log 10 (f c ), and find that source spectra are preferentially enriched in high frequencies, or “blue-shifted,” as focal depth increases. Here, we also find that two spectral amplitude ratios Rg 0.5–2 Hz/Sg 0.5–8 Hz and Pg/Sg at 3–8 Hz decrease as focal depth increases. Using multilinear regression with these features as predictor variables, we develop models that can explain 11%–59% of the variance in depths within 10 subregions and 25% of the depth variance across southern California as a whole. We suggest that incorporating these features into a machine learning workflow could help resolve focal depths in regions that are poorly instrumented and lack large databases of well-located events. Some of the waveform features we evaluate in this study have previously been used as source discriminants, and our results imply that their effectiveness in discrimination is partially because explosions generally occur at shallower depths than earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Improved Earthquake Source Parameters with 3D Wavespeed Models in California and Nevada

Seismic tomography harnesses earthquake data to explore the inaccessible structure of the Earth. Adjoint waveform tomography (AWT), a method of seismic tomography, updates the tomographic model by optimizing the fit between observed earthquake data and synthetic waveforms. The synthetic data are calculated by solving the wave equation through a given 3D model. An important requirement to calculating synthetics is the source information (location, centroid time, depth, and moment tensor). Errors in source information affect the quality of the synthetics produced, which in turn can limit how structure can be inferred in the AWT workflow. Here, to test the effect of updating source information, we used MTTime (Chiang, 2020), a time-domain full-waveform moment tensor inversion code, to calculate the moment tensors and depths of 118 earthquakes that occurred in California and Nevada over a 20-yr period. We calculated 3D Green’s functions using a 3D seismic wavespeed model of California and Nevada (Doody et al., 2023b). We show that the inverted solutions provide better waveform fits than the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog and increase usable, well-correlated data by up to 7%. Therefore, we argue that recalculating source parameters should be considered in AWT workflows, particularly for smaller magnitude events (⁠M w > 5.0).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Developing Flexible, Networked Lighting Control Systems That Reliably Save Energy in California Buildings

An important strategy to meet California's ambitious energy efficiency goals is to use innovative wireless communications, embedded sensors, data analytics and controls to significantly reduce lighting energy use in commercial buildings. This project developed a suite of networked lighting solutions to further this goal. The technologies include a platform for low-cost sensing, distributed intelligence and communications, the “PermaMote,” which is a self-powered sensor and controller for lighting applications. The project team also developed a task ambient daylighting system that integrates sensors with data-driven daylighting control using an open communication interface, called the “Readings-At-Desk” (RAD) system. To address the problem of building occupants being confused about how to operate traditional lighting control systems, the research team created content that could be the basis for a user interface standard for lighting controls. Finally, to address the difficulty of ensuring that advanced lighting control systems actually deliver their promised energy savings, the project team developed a new method for evaluating and specifying lighting systems’ performance. The research team validated these technologies in the laboratory, showing significant lighting energy savings, up to 73% for the PermaMote sensor system from occupancy control and daylight dimming features, compared to the same light source (LED replacement lamps) operated via simple on/off scheduling. The project team also developed a proposed standard lighting data model and user interface elements, which were contributed to the ANSI Lighting Systems Committee (C137) for standardization. Existing data models are incomplete and inconsistent, whereas the lighting-specific data model developed here is clear and comprehensive, to serve as a starting point for creating common, universally agreed upon semantic definitions of key lighting parameters, to promote interoperability. For the task on verifiable performance of lighting systems, the project team developed a more effective metric for capturing the actual energy impact of a lighting system over time — the energy usage intensity (kWh/ft2/year). Three commercial lighting systems were tested in FLEXLAB® using this new metric, and the tests show a wide range in the accuracy of the self-reported energy-use metric, from 0.5% to 28% error compared to direct measurement of lighting energy using dedicated submeters. Overall, the project team estimates that these advanced technologies can reduce California office lighting energy use by 20% (above and beyond normal advanced lighting controls mandated by Title 24), resulting in about 1,600 GWh/year in savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

External Review Committee Report on the California Geological Survey

In May and June of 2021, the External Review Committee (ERC) assessed the activities and major programs of the California Geological Survey (CGS). The ERC reviewed materials from the five CGS program areas and upper management, as well as online presentations from program leaders and the California Department of Conservation (DOC), which oversees CGS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring Decarbonization and Clean Energy Pathways for Disadvantaged Communities in California

California has a state-wide goal of carbon neutrality by 2045. Decarbonization for disadvantaged communities (DACs) poses extra challenges due to financial, informational, language, and other barriers. This paper presents the methodology, results, and analysis of energy efficiency measures (EEMs) to save energy, reduce CO 2 emission, and promote clean energy access at the district scale for two DACs in Fresno, California. The methods are broadly applicable to other neighborhoods across the U.S. 22 EEMs were identified and modelled for all residential buildings in the two DACs both individually and as packages. Results show that for energy and CO 2 reduction purposes, the top performing EEM package can decrease energy use and CO 2 emissions by an average of 60%. For electrification, heat pump water heaters are a viable solution, coupled with air source or mini-split heat pumps. Replacing gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles is another important measure in electrification and reducing GHG emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

2022 Annual Site Environmental Report for Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California

Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration. The National Nuclear Security Administration’s Sandia Field Office administers the contract and oversees contractor operations at Sandia National Laboratories, California. Activities at this multiprogram engineering and science laboratory support the nuclear weapons stockpile program, energy and environmental research, homeland security, micro- and nanotechnologies, and basic science and engineering research. The U.S. Department of Energy and its management and operating contractor are committed to safeguarding the environment, assessing sustainability practices, and ensuring the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data presented in this annual site environmental report. This report provides a summary of environmental monitoring information and compliance activities that occurred at Sandia National Laboratories, California during calendar year 2022 unless noted otherwise. General site and environmental program information is also included. This report was prepared in accordance with DOE O 231.1B, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Potential bill impacts of dynamic electricity pricing on California utility customers

The rapid growth of renewable generation is creating challenges for the California grid in the form of the “duck curve,” with increasingly steep ramping required for conventional generation resources in the morning and evening, and growing curtailment of solar resources in midday periods. Time-varying electricity tariffs have received considerable attention as a tool to address these challenges, with a renewed recent focus on the potential for dynamic tariffs that vary to reflect conditions on the grid in near-real time. Consideration of dynamic tariffs may raise concerns about the financial impact on utility customers, especially for those who have limited flexibility to modify their electricity consumption in response. Specific areas of concern include electricity bills, bill volatility, and equity implications related to cost shifting among customer groups. In this paper we leverage smart meter data for more than 400,000 California utility customers, spanning residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers, to assess potential customer bill impacts arising from a multi-component dynamic tariff . Specifically, we compute impacts on customer bills and bill volatility under the assumption of fully inelastic demand, i.e., where customers do not change their consumption patterns in response to the tariff. We also assess various approaches designing subscription load shapes that customers can pre-purchase as a hedge that may provide a measure of protection against large negative impacts, while still incentivizing the modification of loads on the margin. We compare and contrast the relative impacts on different customer classes and discuss benefits and pitfalls of different dynamic tariff structures and subscription load shapes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

2023 Annual Site Environmental Report for Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California

Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration. The National Nuclear Security Administration’s Sandia Field Office administers the Prime Contract and oversees contractor operations at Sandia National Laboratories, California. Activities at this multi-program engineering and science laboratory support the nuclear weapons stockpile program, energy and environmental research, homeland security, micro-and nanotechnologies, and basic science and engineering research. The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration and its management and operating contractor are committed to safeguarding the environment, assessing sustainability practices, and ensuring the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data presented in this annual site environmental report. This report provides a summary of environmental monitoring of information and compliance activities that occurred at Sandia National Laboratories, California during calendar year 2023 unless noted otherwise. General site and environmental program information is also included. This report was prepared in accordance with DOE O 231.1B, Admin Change 1, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2024 Annual Site Environmental Report for Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California

Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration. The National Nuclear Security Administration’s Sandia Field Office administers the Prime Contract and oversees contractor operations at Sandia National Laboratories, California. Activities at this multi-program engineering and science laboratory support the nuclear weapons stockpile program, energy and environmental research, homeland security, micro- and nanotechnologies, and basic science and engineering research. The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration and its management and operating contractor are committed to fulfilling regulatory obligations, safeguarding the environment, assessing sustainability practices, and ensuring the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data presented in this annual site environmental report (ASER). This report provides a summary of environmental monitoring and compliance activities that occurred at Sandia National Laboratories, California, during calendar year 2024, unless noted otherwise. General site and environmental program information is also included. This report was prepared in accordance with DOE Order 231.1B, Admin Change 1, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Preparing California’s Cap-and-Trade Program for 2045: Integrating Carbon Dioxide Removal

To meet California’s legislatively mandated 2045 carbon neutrality target (AB 1279, Muratsuchi), analyses from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have shown that carbon dioxide removal—activities that permanently remove carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere—will be necessary to remove greenhouse gas emissions that are otherwise too costly or difficult to reduce. This policy brief explores the policy, legal, and technical considerations for integrating carbon dioxide removal into the Cap-and-Trade Program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Leveraging a Southern California Energy Innovation Cluster to Pilot and Validate Emerging Energy Technologies

The EPIC Pilot Program, led by the Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator (LACI), was designed to help early-stage clean technology startups accelerate technical validation, investment readiness, and market entry. The project focused on supporting startups in designing and deploying small-scale pilots with the guidance of EPIC Partners, a network of regional stakeholders in the Southern California energy ecosystem, including but not limited to: the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), the California Energy Commission (CEC), Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LA Metro), and Edison International, among others. Through mentorship, funding, and site access for technology deployments, the program provided a structured pathway for startups to test and refine their technologies in real-world settings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗