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241 records · Page 14

The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between 2.39 and 1.31 million deaths per year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM(sub 2.5) is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths per year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths per year in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Silva, Raquel A.↗

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗

Distinguishing Indigenous from Contaminating Microorganisms in Rock Samples from a Deep Au Mine in South Africa

The concentration and distribution of microbial biomass within deep subsurface rock strata is not well known To date, most analyses are from water samples and a few cores. Hand samples, block samples and cores from an actively mined Carbon Leader ore zone at 3.2 kilometers depth were collected for microbial analyses. The Carbon Leader was comprised of quartz, S-bearing aromatic hydrocarbons, Fe(III) oxyhydroxides, sulfides, uraninite, Au and minor amounts of sulfate. The porosity of the ore was 1% and the maximum pore throat diameter was less than 0.1 microns; whereas, the porosity of the adjacent quartzite was .02 to .9% with a maximum pore throat diameter of 0.9 microns. Rhodamine dye, fluorescent microspheres, microbial enrichments, autoradiography, phospholipid fatty acid (PLEA) and 16S rDNA analyses were performed on these rock samples and the mining water. The date indicate that the levels of solute contamination less than 0.01% for pared rock samples. Despite this low level of contamination, PLEA, microbial enrichment, DNA and tracer analyses and calculations indicate that most of the viable microorganisms in the Carbon Leader represent gram negative aerobic heterotrophs and ammonia oxidizers that are phylogenetically identical or closely related to service water microorganisms. These microbial contaminants probably infiltrated the low permeability rock through mining-induced microfractures. Geochemical data also detected drilling water in a fault zone approx. 1 meter behind the rock face encountered during coring. The mining induced macrofractures that are common at these great depths act as pathways for the drilling water borne microorganisms into the lower temperature zone that extends several meters into rock strata from the rock face. Combined PLEA and T- RFLP analyses of the service water and Carbon Leader samples indicate that the concentration of indigenous microorganisms was less than 10(exp 2) cells/gram. Such a low concentrations result from the submicron pore throat diameters. PLFA. SO4-35 autoradiography and tracer analyses indicate that the bounding quartzite contains thermophilic sulfate reducing bacteria at 10(exp 3) cells/gram that are not attributable to drilling water contamination. The microorganisms may be surviving on sulfate generated by oxidation of sulfide by radiolytic reactions resulting from the high U concentration in the ore zone. The presence of up to 8,000 ppm of Fe(III) oxyhydroxides in the host rock will also act to recycle sulfide generated by the sulfate reducing bacteria into sulfate. The activity of these sulfate-reducing bacteria may be enhanced by mining induced fracturing which can propagate up to 40 meters into virgin rock where the temperatures are ca. 50 C, and decrepitate of sulfate rich fluid inclusions. In ultra deep mines, judicious application of tracers and multiple microbial characterization techniques can distinguish microbial contamination caused by the near field fracturing and drilling water migration from the indigenous microbial communities in rock strata. The importance of far field fracturing on indigenous microbial communities, however, remains unknown.

Onstott, T. C.↗

Digitally Calibrated TR Modules Enabling Real-Time Beamforming SweepSAR Architectures

SweepSAR, a novel radar architecture that depends on a DBF (digital beamforming) array, requires calibration accuracies that are order(s) of magnitude greater than is possible with traditional techniques, such as a priori characterization of TR (transmit/receive) modules in thermal vacuum chambers, or simple loop-back of the calibration signal. The advantages of a SweepSAR architecture are so great that it is worth applying significant resources to calibration efforts. Due to the nature of the DBF, each channel contains a digitizer and very powerful digital processor. Each channel can independently digitize (with the digitizer) and analyze (with the processor) its channel's unique calibration signal, and extract the relevant calibration parameters, namely channel gain and channel phase delay commonly referred to as the gain (or amplitude) and phase of the channel. Using the processor, each channel's gain and phase can theoretically be estimated with arbitrary precision through averaging a sufficiently large number of samples. Systematic errors and the changing gain and phase of the channels, typically due to temperature drifts, limits how long the averaging can occur, which limits the precision of the calibration estimate. However, results indicate that calibration knowledge of both the transmit and receive chains of each TR module can be improved by one or two orders of magnitude. Due to the digital nature of the receiver data, the channel's gain and phase may be corrected by a similar amount, while the transmit chain can only be corrected in a traditional manner. To implement Sweep SAR, the order of magnitude improvement in the knowledge of the channel's gain and phase is needed, and the control of the receiver to a similar level is required. Inherent to the DBF array is the individual digitization of each of the array's receiver channels. Current systems typically combine all of the analog signals in the array into one or two analog channels, which are then digitized and processed. All signal conditioning performed prior to digitization is done using analog hardware (which is less precise than digital signal conditioning and dependent on temperature). The DBF digitizes every signal prior to combining, and can therefore analyze and correct received signals, as well as analyze signals that are being transmitted through analog hardware (by sampling a copy and digitizing). Each channel of a DBF also has a powerful processor. With this combination, one is able to digitize, analyze, and correct each channel prior to its being combined. A unique factor is the ability to digitize and analyze (in real time) each of the array's channels independently, allowing one to achieve unprecedented knowledge of each channel's performance (gain and phase), and since the combining is done digitally, each receive channel can be corrected prior to combining. This enables an unprecedented level of accuracy and control through onboard processing. SweepSAR promises significant increases in instrument capability for solid earth and biomass remote sensing, while reducing mission mass and cost. This new instrument concept requires new methods for calibrating the multiple channels, which must be combined onboard, in real time. New methods are being developed for digitally calibrating digital beam-forming arrays to reduce development time, risk, and cost of precision calibrated TR modules for array architectures by accurately tracking modules' characteristics through closed-loop digital calibration, thus tracking systematic changes regardless of temperature.-

Hoffman, James P.↗

Sensitivity of wheat and rice to low levels of atmospheric ethylene

Ethylene (C2H4) gas is produced throughout the life cycle of plants and can accumulate in closed growth chambers to levels 100 times higher than in outside environments. Elevated atmospheric C2H4 can cause a variety of abnormal responses, but the sensitivity to elevated C2H4 is not well characterized. We evaluated the C2H4 sensitivity of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and rice (Oryza sativa L.) in five studies. The first three studies compared the effects of continuous C2H4 levels ranging from 0 to 1000 nmol mol-1 (ppb) in a growth chamber throughout the life cycle of the plants. A short-term 1000 nmol mol-1 treatment was included in which exposure was stopped at anthesis. Yield was reduced by 36% in wheat and 63% in rice at 50 nmol mol-1 and both species were virtually sterile when continuously exposed to 1000 nmol mol-1. However, the yield reductions were much less with exposure that stopped at anthesis, suggesting the detrimental effect of C2H4 on yield was greatest around the time of seed set. Two additional studies evaluated the differential sensitivity of two wheat cultivars (Super Dwarf and USU-Apogee) to 50 nmol mol-1 C2H4 at three CO2 levels [350, 1200, 5000 micromoles mol-1 (ppm)] in a greenhouse. Yield of USU-Apogee was not significantly reduced by C2H4 but the yield of Super Dwarf was reduced by 60%. Elevated CO2 did not influence the sensitivity to C2H4. A difference in the C2H4 sensitivity of USU-Apogee between greenhouse and growth chamber trials suggests that C2H4 sensitivity is dependent on the environment. Collectively, the data suggest that relatively low levels of C2H4 could induce anomalous plant responses by accumulation in greenhouses and growth chambers with inadequate ventilation. The data also suggest that C2H4 sensitivity can be reduced by both genetic and environmental manipulations. 2002 Crop Science Society of America.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗

In-Situ and Remote-Sensing Data Fusion Using Machine Learning Techniques to Infer Urban and Fire Related Pollution Plumes

Airmass type characterization is key in understanding the relative contribution of various emission sources to atmospheric composition and air quality and can be useful in bottom-up model validation and emission inventories. However, classification of pollution plumes from space is often not trivial. Sub-orbital campaigns, such as SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys) give us a unique opportunity to study atmospheric composition in detail, by using a vast suite of in-situ instruments for the detection of trace gases and aerosols. These measurements allow identification of spatial and temporal atmospheric composition changes due to various pollution plumes resulting from urban, biogenic and smoke emissions. Nevertheless, to transfer the knowledge gathered from such campaigns into a global spatial and temporal context, there is a need to develop workflow that can be applicable to measurements from space. In this work we rely on sub-orbital in-situ and total column remote sensing measurements of various pollution plumes taken aboard the NASA DC-8 during 2013 SEAC4RS campaign, linking them through a neural-network (NN) algorithm to allow inference of pollution plume types by input of columnar aerosol and trace-gas measurements. In particular, we use the 4STAR (Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research) airborne measurements of wavelength dependent aerosol optical depth (AOD), particle size proxies, O3, NO2 and water vapor to classify different pollution plumes. Our method relies on assigning a-priori ground-truth labeling to the various plumes, which include urban pollution, different fire types (i.e. forest and agriculture) and fire stage (i.e. fresh and aged) using cluster analysis of aerosol and trace-gases in-situ and auxiliary (e.g. trajectory) data and the training of a NN scheme to fit the best prediction parameters using 4STAR measurements as input. We explore our misclassification rates as related to our ground-truth labels, and with multi-layered pollution plume cases. The next step in our analysis is to optimize parameter selection for a scheme that can be applied to space-borne aerosol and trace-gas observation platforms such as OMI, and future geostationary satellites such as TEMPO and GEO-CAPE.

Neural-network↗

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗