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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of core impurity transport in DIII-D diverted negative triangularity plasmas

Abstract Tokamak operation at negative triangularity has been shown to offer high energy confinement without the typical disadvantages of edge pedestals (Marinoni et al 2021 Nucl. Fusion 61 116010). In this paper, we examine impurity transport in DIII-D diverted negative triangularity experiments. Analysis of charge exchange recombination spectroscopy reveals flat or hollow carbon density profiles in the core, and impurity confinement times consistently shorter than energy confinement times. Bayesian inferences of impurity transport coefficients based on laser blow-off injections and forward modeling via the Aurora package (Sciortino et al 2021 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 63 112001) show core cross-field diffusion to be higher in L-mode than in H-mode. Impurity profile shapes remain flat or hollow in all cases. Inferred radial profiles of diffusion and convection are compared to neoclassical, quasilinear gyrofluid, and nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. Heat transport is observed to be better captured by reduced turbulence models with respect to particle transport. State-of-the-art gyrokinetic modeling compares favorably with measurements across multiple transport channels. Overall, these results suggest that diverted negative triangularity discharges may offer a path to a highly-radiative L-mode scenario with high core performance.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of streaked images of x-ray self-emission in laser-driven spherical implosions

Imaging of x-ray self-emission provides a powerful in situ measurement of the spatial and temporal evolution of high-energy-density plasmas. However, interpretation of these measurements requires detailed understanding of the data-generating process. This work presents a case study in the interpretation of x-ray self-emission data for the specific application of streaked one-dimensional slit imaging of spherical laser-driven implosions. A comprehensive generative model of the streaked slit-imaging diagnostic is developed including detailed treatments of the radiation transfer, photometrics, and photostatistics associated with the measurement. The model is used to generate realistic synthetic streaked images and to analyze experimental streaked images to extract important physical quantities of interest. An example analysis of streaked images from implosion experiments on the OMEGA laser is presented, where the model developed in this work is used to constrain the trajectory and peak velocity of the implosion using Bayesian inference.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolving Mixtures of Soot Characterized by SP-AMS Spectra Using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation Model

Soot produced by detonation or combustion events exhibits different chemical properties depending on the fuel, device construction, and environmental conditions in which the event occurs. These properties can be useful for defining relevant signatures for probabilistically identifying the different types of events that occurred, based on the soot that is produced from these events. However, it is rare to observe samples of soot from a detonation or combustion that are not contaminated by outside particles. In this paper, we present a method for resolving mixtures of soot to determine the contributions of sources that may be present in samples of recovered soot. We use Latent Dirichlet Allocation to describe the generative process for a sample of recovered soot, and use Variational Bayesian Inference to learn about the parameters associated with the generative model. We demonstrate the utility of this method by considering real samples of mixtures of soot under various frameworks to show that the model is able to identify the different components present in a sample of soot as well as their mixing proportions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of stagnation performance metrics in magnetized liner inertial fusion experiments using Bayesian data assimilation

Here we present a new analysis methodology that allows for the self-consistent integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear measurements, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power detectors to determine the primary stagnation parameters, such as temperature, pressure, stagnation volume, and mix fraction in magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. The analysis uses a simplified model of the stagnation plasma in conjunction with a Bayesian inference framework to determine the most probable configuration that describes the experimental observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. We validate the approach by using a range of tests including analytic and three-dimensional MHD models. An ensemble of MagLIF experiments is analyzed, and the generalized Lawson criterion χ is estimated for all experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational budget optimization for Bayesian parameter estimation in heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy-ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Aside from statistical and systematic model uncertainties, interpolation uncertainties can also play a role in Bayesian inference, if the model’s predictions can only be calculated at a limited set of model parameters. This uncertainty originates from using an emulator to interpolate the model’s prediction across a continuous space of parameters. In this work, we study the trade-offs between the emulator (interpolation) and statistical uncertainties. We perform the analysis using spatial eccentricities from the T R ENTo model of initial conditions for nuclear collisions. Given a fixed computational budget, we study the optimal compromise between the number of parameter samples and the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample. For the observables and parameters used in the present study, we find that the best constraints are achieved when the number of parameter samples is slightly smaller than the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗
DOE OSTI2022

PyApprox: Enabling efficient model analysis

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of scientific numerical models. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent the most popular methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. Simple interfaces are provided for the most commonly-used algorithms to limit a user’s need to tune the various hyper-parameters of each algorithm. However, more advanced work flows that require customization of hyper-parameters is also supported. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of different algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. This paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in ground water.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active learning for SNAP interatomic potentials via Bayesian predictive uncertainty

Bayesian inference with a simple Gaussian error model is used to efficiently compute prediction variances for energies, forces, and stresses in the linear SNAP interatomic potential. Here, the prediction variance is shown to have a strong correlation with the absolute error over approximately 24 orders of magnitude. Using this prediction variance, an active learning algorithm is constructed to iteratively train a potential by selecting the structures with the most uncertain properties from a pool of candidate structures. The relative importance of the energy, force, and stress errors in the objective function is shown to have a strong impact upon the trajectory of their respective net error metrics when running the active learning algorithm. Batched training of different batch sizes is also tested against singular structure updates, and it is found that batches can be used to significantly reduce the number of retraining steps required with only minor impact on the active learning trajectory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven assessment of magnetic charged particle confinement parameter scaling in magnetized liner inertial fusion experiments on Z

In magneto-inertial fusion, the ratio of the characteristic fuel length perpendicular to the applied magnetic field R to the α-particle Larmor radius $ϱ_α$ is a critical parameter setting the scale of electron thermal-conduction loss and charged burn-product confinement. Here, using a previously developed deep-learning-based Bayesian inference tool, we obtain the magnetic-field fuel-radius product BR ∝ R / $ϱ_α$ from an ensemble of 16 magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. Observations of the trends in BR are consistent with relative trade-offs between compression and flux loss as well as the impact of mix from 1D resistive radiation magneto-hydrodynamics simulations in all but two experiments, for which 3D effects are hypothesized to play a significant role. Finally, we explain the relationship between BR and the generalized Lawson parameter χ. Our results indicate the ability to improve performance in MagLIF through careful tuning of experimental inputs, while also highlighting key risks from mix and 3D effects that must be mitigated in scaling MagLIF to higher currents with a next-generation driver.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Bayesian Approach to Real-Time Dynamic Parameter Estimation Using Phasor Measurement Unit Measurement

Here, we develop a polynomial-chaos-expansion (PCE)-based approach for decentralized dynamic parameter estimation through Bayesian inference. Using this approach, the non-Gaussian distribution of the inverted parameters is obtained. More specifically, we first represent the decentralized generator model with the PCE-based surrogate. This surrogate allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming dynamic solver at parameter values through Metropolis-Hastings (M-H)-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Then, we propose a two-stage hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to recover a posteriori distribution of the decentralized generator model parameters. In the first stage, we use the gradient-enhanced Langevin MCMC algorithm to characterize an intermediate posterior parameter distribution. This algorithm is computationally scalable to the high-dimensional parameter space. Based on the intermediate posterior distribution, during the second stage, we use the adaptive MCMC algorithm to fine-tune the strong correlations between the parameters. Finally, the fully recovered a posterior distribution is obtained in the end. The simulation results show that the proposed PCE-based hybrid MCMC algorithm can accurately and efficiently estimate the high-dimensional generator dynamic model parameters with full probabilistic distribution provided.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multifidelity Ensemble Kalman Filtering Using Surrogate Models Defined by Theory-Guided Autoencoders

Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The multifidelity ensemble Kalman filter (MFEnKF) recently developed by the authors combines a full-order physical model and a hierarchy of reduced order surrogate models in order to increase the computational efficiency of data assimilation. The standard MFEnKF uses linear couplings between models, and is statistically optimal in case of Gaussian probability densities. This work extends the MFEnKF into to make use of a broader class of surrogate model such as those based on machine learning methods such as autoencoders non-linear couplings in between the model hierarchies. We identify the right-invertibility property for autoencoders as being a key predictor of success in the forecasting power of autoencoder-based reduced order models. We propose a methodology that allows us to construct reduced order surrogate models that are more accurate than the ones obtained via conventional linear methods. Numerical experiments with the canonical Lorenz'96 model illustrate that nonlinear surrogates perform better than linear projection-based ones in the context of multifidelity ensemble Kalman filtering. We additionality show a large-scale proof-of-concept result with the quasi-geostrophic equations, showing the competitiveness of the method with a traditional reduced order model-based MFEnKF.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Marginal unbiased score expansion and application to CMB lensing

Here, we present the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE) method, an algorithm for generic high-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian inference. MUSE performs approximate marginalization over arbitrary non-Gaussian latent parameter spaces, yielding Gaussianized asymptotically unbiased and near-optimal constraints on global parameters of interest. It is computationally much cheaper than exact alternatives like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), excelling on funnel problems which challenge HMC, and does not require any problem-specific user supervision like other approximate methods such as variational inference or many simulation-based inference methods. MUSE makes possible the first joint Bayesian estimation of the delensed Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) power spectrum and gravitational lensing potential power spectrum, demonstrated here on a simulated data set as large as the upcoming South Pole Telescope 3G 1500 deg 2 survey, corresponding to a latent dimensionality of ~6 million and of order 100 global bandpower parameters. On a subset of the problem where an exact but more expensive HMC solution is feasible, we verify that MUSE yields nearly optimal results. We also demonstrate that existing spectrum-based forecasting tools which ignore pixel-masking underestimate predicted error bars by only ~10%. This method is a promising path forward for fast lensing and delensing analyses which will be necessary for future CMB experiments such as SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, or CMB-S4, and can complement or supersede existing HMC approaches. The success of MUSE on this challenging problem strengthens its case as a generic procedure for a broad class of high-dimensional inference problems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Gaussian process inference for neutron spin echo measurement

Neutron spin echo (NSE) spectroscopy provides unique access to microscopic dynamics, but its application is often constrained by low neutron flux, long acquisition times, and significant noise. Here, we present a Bayesian inference approach based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to reconstruct high-quality spin echo signals from sparse and noisy data by exploiting correlations in reciprocal space. Benchmarks on synthetic datasets and validation with experimental NSE measurements of dendrimers show that GPR suppresses noise, interpolates missing intensity values, and accommodates irregular observations. The method improves accuracy, shortens acquisition times, and enables high-throughput and real-time studies. Beyond NSE, the framework is broadly applicable to other low signal-to-noise ratio scattering techniques, thereby extending the scope of neutron spectroscopy.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian homodyne and heterodyne tomography

Continuous-variable (CV) photonic states are of increasing interest in quantum information science, bolstered by features such as deterministic resource state generation and error correction via bosonic codes. Data-efficient characterization methods will prove critical in the fine-tuning and maturation of such CV quantum technology. Although Bayesian inference offers appealing properties—including uncertainty quantification and optimality in mean-squared error—Bayesian methods have yet to be demonstrated for the tomography of arbitrary CV states. Here we introduce a complete Bayesian quantum state tomography workflow capable of inferring generic CV states measured by homodyne or heterodyne detection, with no assumption of Gaussianity. As examples, we demonstrate our approach on experimental coherent, thermal, and cat state data, obtaining excellent agreement between our Bayesian estimates and theoretical predictions. Our approach lays the groundwork for Bayesian estimation of highly complex CV quantum states in emerging quantum photonic platforms, such as quantum communications networks and sensors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Particle transport constraints via Bayesian spectral fitting of multiple atomic lines

Optimized operation of fusion devices demands detailed understanding of plasma transport, a problem that must be addressed with advances in both measurement and data analysis techniques. In this work, we adopt Bayesian inference methods to determine experimental particle transport, leveraging opportunities from high-resolution He-like ion spectra in a tokamak plasma. The Bayesian spectral fitting code is used to analyze resonance (w), forbidden (z), intercombination (x, y), and satellite (k, j) lines of He-like Ca following laser blow-off injections on Alcator C-Mod. This offers powerful transport constraints since these lines depend differently on electron temperature and density, but also differ in their relation to Li-like, He-like, and H-like ion densities, often the dominant Ca charge states over most of the C-Mod plasma radius. Using synthetic diagnostics based on the AURORA package, we demonstrate improved effectiveness of impurity transport inferences when spectroscopic data from a progressively larger number of lines are included.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

SDSS-IV MaNGA: Bayesian analysis of the star formation history of low-mass galaxies in the local Universe

ABSTRACT We measure the star formation histories (SFHs) of a sample of low-mass galaxies with M* < 109 M⊙ from the SDSS-IV MaNGA survey. The large number of IFU spectra for each galaxy are either combined to reach a high signal to noise ratio or used to investigate spatial variations. We use Bayesian inferences based on full spectrum fitting. Our analysis based on Bayesian evidence ratio indicates a strong preference for a model that allows the presence of an old stellar population, and that an improper model for the SFH can significantly underestimate the old population in these galaxies. The addition of near-infrared photometry to the constraining data can further distinguish between different SFH model families and significantly tighten the constraints on the mass fraction in the old population. On average more than half of the stellar mass in present-day low-mass galaxies formed at least 8 Gyr ago, while about 30 per cent within the past 4 Gyr. Satellite galaxies on average have formed their stellar mass earlier than central galaxies. The radial dependence of the SFH is quite weak. Our results suggest that most of the low-mass galaxies have an early episode of active star formation that produces a large fraction of their present stellar mass.

Zhou, Shuang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Platform Of Optimal Experiment Management

The platform of optimal experiment management, POEM, powered with automated machine learning to accelerate the discovery of optimal solutions, and automatically guide the design of experiments to be evaluated. POEM currently supports 1) random model explorations for experiment design, 2) sparse grid model explorations with Gaussian Polynomial Chaos surrogate model to accelerate experiment design ,3) time-dependent model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to identify the importance features for experiment design, 4) model calibrations via Bayesian inference to integrate experiments to improve model performance, and 5) Bayesian optimization for optimal experimental design. In addition, POEM aims to simplify the process of experimental design for users, enabling them to analyze the data with minimal human intervention, and improving the technological output from research activities.

Wang, Congjian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I↗
DOE OSTI2023

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗