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At least 253 records · Page 14

The Contribution of Subtropical Moisture Within an Atmospheric River on Moisture Flux, Cloud Structure, and Precipitation Over the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho Using Moisture Tracers

The impact of an atmospheric river (AR) on the flux of subtropical moisture across Idaho's Salmon River Mountains and precipitation over the mountains is evaluated using the Weather, Research, and Forecasting model with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT). The AR impacted Idaho between 17 and 19 January 2017 during the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE) campaign. WRF-WVT is configured to isolate the subtropical moisture contribution to the AR, the moisture flux, and precipitation. Subtropical water vapor advected by the AR into Idaho is tagged and tracked in three-dimensional space throughout the run. This allows the contribution of the subtropical moisture to the vertical distribution of water vapor and the precipitation to be directly calculated. The simulated cloud structure is compared with airborne radar data collected during two SNOWIE intensive operation periods. This study found that more than 70% of the moisture flux and more than 80% of the precipitation across the Idaho Mountains during SNOWIE IOP 4 could be attributed to subtropical moisture within the AR. Nearly all of the moisture flux in the upper cloud and 50% of the moisture in the lower cloud was attributable to the subtropical moisture. The subtropical moisture contribution within the AR to precipitation ranged from 35% in northern Idaho to more than 90% in southern Idaho. Across the entire period of impact of the AR, more than 60% of precipitation in Idaho was attributable to the subtropical moisture within the AR, with this percentage increasing toward the south across the state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Co-Occurring Atmospheric Features and Their Contributions to Precipitation Extremes

Object-based identification algorithms for atmospheric features are commonly utilized to attribute global precipitation. This study employs a systematic approach to examine feature co-occurrences and their relationships to mean and extreme precipitation. Four features are identified using existing data sets for atmospheric rivers (ARs), mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), low-pressure systems (LPSs), and fronts (FTs). Often, a single atmospheric phenomenon satisfies the criteria set by multiple feature identification algorithms, yielding an association between precipitation and multiple features. Over the extra-tropics, the number of features attributed to a single event typically increases with precipitation intensity. Over two-thirds of the precipitation is from co-occurring features, with a considerable fraction related to AR-FT co-occurrences. Over the tropics, about one-quarter of precipitation is associated with co-occurring features, with LPS-MCS co-occurrences contributing substantially in monsoon regions. MCSs are the leading single-feature contributors over tropical land and oceans. In the extra-tropics, FTs, ARs, and their co-occurrences account for over half of the total precipitation over oceans. AR-FT-MCS and FT-MCS co-occurrences contribute to extremes (precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile) over both oceans (over 30%) and land (over 20%). Any combination of features involving MCSs shows a larger contribution to high percentiles of precipitation intensity. A case analysis indicates that AR-FT-MCS co-occurrences exhibit convective instability and deep vertical motion, suggesting that the feature trackers and reanalysis are capturing physics relevant to both convective and frontal systems. The results here emphasize the need for simultaneous identifications of multiple features when attributing precipitation to atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing fatigue life by ductile-transformable multicomponent B2 precipitates in a high-entropy alloy

Catastrophic accidents caused by fatigue failures often occur in engineering structures. Thus, a fundamental understanding of cyclic-deformation and fatigue-failure mechanisms is critical for the development of fatigue-resistant structural materials. Here we report a high-entropy alloy with enhanced fatigue life by ductile-transformable multicomponent B2 precipitates. Its cyclic-deformation mechanisms are revealed by real-time in-situ neutron diffraction, transmission-electron microscopy, crystal-plasticity modeling, and Monte-Carlo simulations. Multiple cyclic-deformation mechanisms, including dislocation slips, precipitation strengthening, deformation twinning, and reversible martensitic phase transformation, are observed in the studied high-entropy alloy. Its improved fatigue performance at low strain amplitudes, i.e., the high fatigue-crack-initiation resistance, is attributed to the high elasticity, plastic deformability, and martensitic transformation of the B2-strengthening phase. This study shows that fatigue-resistant alloys can be developed by incorporating strengthening ductile-transformable multicomponent intermetallic phases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Delineation of endorheic drainage basins in the MERIT-Plus dataset for 5 and 15 minute upscaled river networks

Abstract The MERIT-Hydro networks re-gridded by the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) algorithm do not retain exo- or endorheic basin attributes from the original data. Here we developed methods to assign such attributes to those and any other digital river networks. The motivation is that endorheic inland drainage basins are essential for hydrologic modelling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. First, we create basin attributes that explicitly label endorheic and exorheic catchments by the criteria of direct or hidden connectivity to the ocean without changing their flow direction grid. In the second step we alter the delineation of endorheic basins by the merging algorithm that eliminates small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion and topology of the inland basins. The data was validated using the Water Balance Model by comparing volume of endorheic inland depressions with modelled water accumulation in their inland lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ultra-wide bandgap β-Ga 2 O 3 films: Optical, phonon, and temperature response properties

Optical and phonon interactions of Ga 2 O 3 thin films with nanocrystalline morphology were studied at extreme temperatures. The films were grown using a sputtering technique and analyzed via temperature response transmission, Raman scattering, and high-resolution deep-UV photoluminescence (PL). Raman modes indicated that the structure corresponds to the β-phase. The optical-gap at the range of 77–620 K exhibited a redshift of ~200 meV, with a temperature coefficient of ~0.4 meV/K. The optical-gap at room-temperature is 4.85 eV. The electron–phonon interaction model at that temperature range pointed to a low energy phonon, ~31 meV, that is involved in the thermal properties of the optical-gap. Detailed Urbach energy analysis indicated that defects are the dominant mechanism controlling the band-edge characteristics even at an elevated temperature regime where phonon dominance is usually expected. Defects are attributed to the disordered forms of graphite that were detected via Raman scattering and to the granular morphology of the film. A deep-UV laser with an above bandgap exaction line of 5.1 eV was employed to map the PL of the films. The highly resolved spectra, even at room-temperature, show a strong emission of ~3.56 eV attributed to self-trapped holes (STHs). The STH is discussed and modeled in terms of the self-trapped exciton. Moreover, a very distinct but low-intensity emission was found at 4.85 eV that agrees with the value of the optical-gap and is attributed to bandgap recombination. The intensity ratio between the STH and that of the bandgap was found to be 6:1.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Regional differences in tobacco smoking and lung cancer in Portugal in 2018: a population-based analysis using nationwide incidence and mortality data

Objectives: This study aims to estimate the proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal in 2018, complemented by trends in incidence and mortality, by sex and region. Design: Cancer cases for 1998–2011 and cancer deaths for 1991–2018 were obtained from population-based registries and Statistics Portugal, respectively. We projected cases for 2018 and used reported deaths for the same year to estimate, using Peto’s method, the number and proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths caused by tobacco smoking in 2018. We calculated the age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates in each year of diagnosis and death. We fitted a joinpoint regression to the observed data to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in the rates. Setting: Portugal. Results: In 2018, an estimated 3859 cases and 3192 deaths from lung cancer were attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal, with men presenting a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 82.6% (n=3064) for incidence and 84.1% (n=2749) for mortality, while in women those values were 51.0% (n=795) and 42.7% (n=443), respectively. In both sexes and metrics, the Azores were the region with the highest PAF and the Centre with the lowest. During 1998–2011, the APC for incidence ranged from 0.6% to 3.0% in men and 3.6% to 7.9% in women, depending on region, with mortality presenting a similar pattern between sexes. Conclusion: Exposure to tobacco smoking has accounted for most of the lung cancer cases and deaths estimated in Portugal in 2018. Differential patterns of tobacco consumption across the country, varying implementation of primary prevention programmes and differences in personal cancer awareness may have contributed to the disparities observed. Primary prevention of lung cancer remains a public health priority, particularly among women.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Stand validation of lidar forest inventory modeling for a managed southern pine forest

We evaluated area-based approaches (ABAs) to light detection and ranging (lidar) predictions of plot- and stand-level forest attributes (tree count, height, basal area, volume, aboveground biomass, broadleaf/conifer, and diameter at breast height — “diameter”). ABA methods included post-stratification (PS), ordinary least squares (OLSs) regression, k nearest neighbors ( kNN), and random forest (RF). This study was conducted on the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA. Plot- and stand-level predictions were validated against fixed-radius 0.04 ha (0.1 acre) plots in 49 ≈2.0 ha (5 acre) stands. Our findings demonstrate that lidar can be incorporated operationally into forest inventory systems to provide stand-level inferences for a wide range of forest attributes. Volume predictions for specific diameter classes, however, often fared poorly (root mean squared error (RMSE) > 100%) for the methods we explored, especially for larger (less common) diameter trees. Stand-level results were consistently better than pixel-level results (10–200+ percentage points). kNN and RF performed similarly and better than OLS and PS, but RF was the most robust to model configurations, while kNN has practical advantages such as simultaneous predictions of many attributes.

Forestry↗

Scientific Open-Source Software Is Less Likely to Become Abandoned Than One Might Think! Lessons from Curating a Catalog of Maintained Scientific Software

Scientific software is essential to scientific innovation and in many ways it is distinct from other types of software. Abandoned (or unmaintained), buggy, and hard to use software, a perception often associated with scientific software can hinder scientific progress, yet, in contrast to other types of software, its longevity is poorly understood. Existing data curation efforts are fragmented by science domain and/or are small in scale and lack key attributes. We use large language models to classify public software repositories in World of Code into distinct scientific domains and layers of the software stack, curating a large and diverse collection of over 18,000 scientific software projects. Using this data, we estimate survival models to understand how the domain, infrastructural layer, and other attributes of scientific software affect its longevity. We further obtain a matched sample of non-scientific software repositories and investigate the differences. We find that infrastructural layers, downstream dependencies, mentions of publications, and participants from government are associated with a longer lifespan, while newer projects with participants from academia had shorter lifespan. Against common expectations, scientific projects have a longer lifetime than matched non-scientific open-source software projects. We expect our curated attribute-rich collection to support future research on scientific software and provide insights that may help extend longevity of both scientific and other projects.

Malviya Thakur, Addi [ORNL] (ORCID:000000022681999↗

OpenCRUMS USA: An Open Machine Learning Framework for Characterizing Variability in Aerosol Reanalysis Data

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have called for exploring how these techniques can be used for exploring patterns in large climate datasets. To that regard, the U.S. Department of Energy AI for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) supported a pilot initiative called the Open Classification of Regimes in the Southeast USA (OpenCRUMS USA) project to explore how AI can be used to characterize modes of spatial variability in large climate datasets. For this study, we focus on comparing two methods for characterizing the modes of spatial variability of surface aerosol concentration over the Houston region: empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and layerwise relevance propagation (LRP) applied to a convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier. We show that EOF analysis typically attributes spatial variability modes that span all of southeast Texas, prohibiting the attribution of spatial variability to localized regions. However, using LRP on the CNN classifier resolves the explanatory parameters at a finer spatial resolution than EOFs. This allows for the attribution of the spatial variability of surface aerosols to local regions of organic carbon which was not possible using EOFs. In addition, the LRP analysis also suggests that synoptic-scale transport of dust is most prevalent during anticyclonic and pretrough synoptic conditions as categorized by self-organizing maps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

End-of-Century Changes in Orographic Precipitation with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model over the Western United States

Abstract Downscaled precipitation projections were created using the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model over the western United States to increase the physical realism in orographic precipitation changes. End-of-century simulations from eight models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were downscaled with ICAR and compared to the widely utilized statistically downscaled dataset, localized constructed analogs (LOCAs), to understand where and why projections of cool-season (September–May) precipitation differed. ICAR and LOCA precipitation projections were similar, but their sign differed in hydrologically relevant regions likely due to ICAR’s simulation of microphysics and mesoscale dynamics with high-resolution topography (6 km). In the Pacific Northwest, cool-season precipitation projections from ICAR showed an increase on the windward side of the Cascades and no significant change within the lee. This difference between the windward and leeward side was attributed to reduced zonal wind speeds, allowing more time for microphysical processes within ICAR. This contrast is enhanced by rain’s faster fall speed compared to snow, limiting transport into the lee. Meanwhile, LOCA projected an increase in precipitation across the Cascades. In the Upper Colorado River basin, LOCA projected an increase in precipitation in high elevation regions (>3000 m), but ICAR projected no significant change or a decrease in precipitation. High elevation differences were most evident in the spring and fall and were also attributed to a snow-to-rain transition and dynamical processes that impacted orographic enhancement within ICAR. Idealized, controlled studies are needed to better isolate individual processes, but these results underscore the importance of including microphysics and mesoscale dynamics within regional-scale precipitation projections. Significance Statement A set of global climate model simulations was downscaled using an atmospheric model that contains key physical equations, referred to as Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR). ICAR was used to examine projected changes in end-of-century cool-season precipitation over mountains in the western United States. Precipitation projections from ICAR were similar to projections that used statistical relationships to downscale climate projections. However, projections differed between ICAR and statistically downscaled datasets in whether they increased, decreased, or stayed the same in specific, hydrologically relevant regions such as the eastern Cascades and high elevation areas of the Upper Colorado River basin. These differences were attributed to the simulation of physical processes in ICAR. The results highlight the importance of kilometer-scale atmospheric processes in regional climate projections.

Currier, William Ryan [NOAA/Physical Sciences Labo↗

Impact Mapping for Geospatial Reasoning and Decision Making

Objective The reported study evaluated a novel approach to aiding geospatial reasoning and decision making. Background Impact mapping aims to alleviate the cognitive demands of geospatial tasks in part by externalizing data in the form of an integrated decision surface. This is achieved by aggregating data across multiple sources of information and visualizing their combined utility rather than objective measurements or individual utility. Previous research has shown that geospatial decisions improve when aided in this manner, but it remains unknown if dynamic decision making, often plagued by fatigue and anchoring bias, would benefit similarly. Method The experiment implemented a systematic manipulation of the presence of a composite impact map and the number of attributes present in a two-stage disaster relief, resource allocation task to investigate when and how impact mapping is beneficial or deleterious to decision makers. Results The presence of the composite impact map increased the utility of selected sites, increased re-planning decisions, reduced information display views, and reduced workload. Generally, the effect of the composite impact map was greater when participants were asked to evaluate more attributes. Conclusion Composite impact maps appear to improve repeated geospatial reasoning and minimize anchoring bias because they alleviate the cognitive demands otherwise necessary to interpret and maintain information from multiple attributes. Application Data visualization techniques, such as impact mapping, can improve repeated geospatial decision making in environments that include high cognitive demand.

Illingworth, David A.↗

New reference materials for trace-levels of actinide elements in plutonium

In this report two plutonium oxides were prepared as unique reference materials for measurement of actinide elements present as trace constituents. Each reference material unit is approximately 200 mg of PuO 2 powder in a quartz glass bottle. Characterized attributes of the oxides included mass fractions of plutonium, americium, neptunium, and uranium. Isotope-amount ratios were also determined for plutonium and uranium, but neptunium and americium were observed to be monoisotopic 237 Np and 241 Am. Measurements for characterization and verification of the attributes show that plutonium and trace actinides are homogeneous with the exception of limited heterogeneity for uranium, primarily observed for the 238 U isotope. Model purification ages calculated from measured americium and uranium attribute values are consistent with material histories and indicate that these impurities are predominantly due to the decay of plutonium isotopes.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Data, model inputs, and analysis scripts associated with a manuscript on stream intermittency controls across spatial scales in Pacific Northwest watersheds

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript "Hydroclimatic Memory and Watershed Template Shape Stream Intermittency: Multi-scale Attribution Using Process-based Simulation and Explainable ML" by Niroula et al. (2026), submitted to Water Resources Research (WRR). The study investigates the dominant controls on stream intermittency across local, reach, and watershed scales using a coupled process-based simulation and explainable machine-learning framework. Long-term daily simulations from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) were used to generate wetness states and ponded-depth responses over river-corridor cells. These ATS outputs were then aggregated across scales and used to train XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to quantify the relative importance of hydroclimatic forcings, watershed template attributes, and antecedent-memory effects in shaping intermittency behavior. The analysis is carried out for three contrasting Pacific Northwest watersheds: Oak Creek (OCW), American River Watershed (ARW), and H.J. Andrews (HJA). Across these testbeds, the package contains ATS-ready watershed inputs, ATS run configuration and selected output files, model-evaluation data products, intermittency-analysis datasets, machine-learning target-feature tables, SHAP outputs, and notebooks used to organize, analyze, and visualize results. At a high level, the package documents a workflow in which ATS provides the physically based simulation backbone and explainable machine learning is used as a post-processing attribution tool. The contents are intended to support interpretation of the manuscript figures and results, provide context for how intermittency metrics were generated at multiple scales, and preserve the key artifacts needed to understand and reuse the analysis workflow. The package contains a high-level directory summary file (`summary.txt`) and four main content folders (1) `evaluation_plots` contains evaluation figures and supporting evaluation datasets; (2) `intermittency_plots` contains intermittency-focused analysis notebook and prepared datasets; (3) `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` contains ML training inputs, SHAP outputs, and figure-generation notebooks; and (4) `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` contains ATS model setup materials, forcing inputs, geometry, and selected run files. More specifically, the `evaluation_plots` folder contains the notebook used for ATS evaluation plotting and site-specific evaluation datasets. These include evapotranspiration and water-balance products for three watersheds, as well as an Oak Creek field-measurement discharge file. The `intermittency_plots` folder contains the notebook used for intermittency analysis and the prepared datasets used to analyze intermittent and non-intermittent wetness behavior across the study watersheds. The `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` folder contains notebooks and outputs for the machine-learning and explainability workflow. This includes the main XGBoost and SHAP notebook(s), a beeswarm plotting notebook, target-feature tables for machine-learning training, SHAP summary tables, and per-sample SHAP value archives. The `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` folder contains ATS-related watershed inputs and supporting materials. This includes mesh and shape products, ATS-readable LAI and meteorological forcing inputs, selected ATS spinup and transient-run files, and a watershed workflow example notebook. Subdirectories are organized by watershed where applicable.All files are .cpg (codepage files), .csv (comma-separated values), .dbf (database files), .exo (Exodus mesh format), .h5 (HDF5 format), .ipynb (Jupyter notebooks), .pkl (Python pickle), .prj (projection files), .sh (shell scripts), .shp (shapefile geometry), .shx (shapefile index), .txt (text files), or .xml (markup data).

Advanced Terrestrial Simulator↗

WELLS Database

The Wellbore Exploration and Location Logistic System (WELLS) is a living national wellbore database - created and maintained by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). This resource contains more than seven million public wellbore records from state, federal, and tribal resources. Sourced from over 65 authoritative, yet disparate resources, the WELLS Database combines and synthesizes well data from oil, gas, underground injection, research, geothermal, geotechnical, groundwater and other types of wells in a single, unified system. This resource can be explored and visualized through the WELLS Interactive Application, also on EDX: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/wells-interactive-application The WELLS Database (formerly titled CO2-Locate) is an integrated national well dataset, representing open-source wellbore data from disparate state, tribal, and federal entities. The database provides publicly available well header data with key attributes such as well age, depth, and status. The database contains a fully integrated CSV file with all values in numerical columns, such as depth, converted into numbers. This version has a NETL derived API (American Petroleum Institute) number column and has been handled for redundancies, resulting in one record for every unique API number. The database also contains a fully integrated CSV file, where all original data are kept as text values. Additionally, the database includes a shapefile containing key attributes and coordinates from the integrated dataset, reformatted public wells CSV files, and a proprietary well density grid shapefile. Notes for consideration: The WELLS Database will be updated periodically with new datasets and information. A field dictionary with field (i.e., attribute) coverage across acquired public well resources, and the resulting integrated public well datasets are available in the spreadsheet, WELLS_Field_Dictionary.xlsx. Summary layers provided in this database are derived from proprietary layers and do not always contain key features (status, type, true vertical depth, or spud year) and therefore might not be shown when data are queried for those features.

AS↗

Process Image Analysis using Big Data, Machine Learning, and Computer Vision

The development of algorithms for machine learning and data analysis for the 3013 MIS corrosion surveillance program is a collaborative effort by SRNL, USC and GT. For corrosion detection, LCM image data is extracted from large binary files, with software written to convert the data to physical attributes (i.e. height, color and grayscale values; all as functions of a location in a plane projection). The user interface for the software permits selective downloading of binary data and interrogation of attributes. User input thresholds are used to flag attributes of interest. Machine learning algorithms, developed for this application, are used to determine whether the features are the result of corrosion. To address the fundamental mechanisms of corrosion, machine learning algorithms are being developed to derive interatomic potential force-fields from ab-initio DFT calculations. The goal is to apply molecular modeling on a large enough scale to guide the design of resistant materials.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Understanding and Overcoming Water-induced Interfacial Degradation in Si Modules (Final Technical Report)

Moisture ingress is an established issue for photovoltaic module durability. Durability studies probing moisture effects typically evaluate performance losses at the module level, attributing global power losses to the overall humidity condition of the test environment while leaving local module behavior unknown. This project successfully develops an in situ short-wave infrared probe of moisture content in PV modules with demonstrated detection limits better than 100 ppm in EVA-encapsulated Al-BSF and PERC architectures (66 µg/cm3) and applicability across the range of terrestrial conditions. Combining this optical moisture quantification method (water reflectometry detection, WaRD) with peel testing of interfaces, biased photoluminescence imaging of performance, and first principles computation, we correlate module moisture content and cell performance over the course of accelerated damp heat tests. By performing multi-level humidity and thermal accelerated testing over thousands of hours (0, 65 and 85% RH and 25, 65, and 85°C), we are able to attribute effects of individual environmental stresses and the dependence on module architecture. Using first-principles computational chemistry, we find that the decomposition of EVA to acetic acid (Norrish II) is thermodynamically preferred over a pathway to acetaldehyde (Norrish I), elucidating the underlying chemistry of encapsulant degradation. We also find it is likely that water segregates to the stable interfaces of the cell, especially the SiNx/EVA interface. We find that moisture is strongly correlated with reduction in adhesion at the interfaces of the cells, particularly at Ag fingers. We show uniquely that the peel strength required to delaminate the encapsulant from the front of the cell depends not only on the exposure to a high heat and humid environment, but also to the moisture content during the mechanical testing, indicating an important interaction between when mechanical stresses are faced in terms of the moisture content of the module and its durability. We find that the background sheet resistance (that is, the sheet resistance rise not attributable to finger interruptions or cracks) is substantially higher in the backsheet mini-modules vs glass-glass packages when humidity and temperature are faced. This increase in power loss due to the background resistance increase over time in damp heat in glass-backsheet modules resulted in ~3-4% larger decrease in relative PCE compared to glass-glass modules. In glass-backsheet modules, the effect of the moisture dose alone is comparable or greater than that of the combined temperature and water term, suggesting that glass-backsheet modules are overall more susceptible to moisture induced performance loss. Finally, we show that thin film PV modules are amenable to WaRD measurement, based on the ability to detect moisture in POE encapsulants or in the cell stack itself. The ease of WaRD measurement and its few requirements on the bill of materials should enable broad applicability of this technique for studying the effects of moisture in PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-Silicon Steel Strip by Single-Step Shear Deformation Processing

It is well known that Fe-Si alloys with Si content higher than in conventional electrical sheet steels (>3.2% Si) can make a significant impact in improving the efficiency of electrical motors if they are available in sheet/foil (strip) forms at suitable cost. While the magnetic and electrical attributes (e.g., resistivity, core loss) of these high-Si Fe alloys, of relevance to electrical motor core laminations, are known to be exceptional, the alloys have limited workability, making them difficult to produce consistently in sheet/foil (strip) forms. Current processing techniques such as rolling, while adequate for producing conventional electrical steel sheet, do have important disadvantages - large energy consumption and emissions, limitations in processing of low-workability alloys (e.g., high-Si content steels), large-scale plant infrastructure, and less than adequate capability to engineer sheet metals with specific microstructures (e.g., fine-grained) and crystallographic textures (e.g., shear textures). It is therefore of interest to have an alternative commercial process that can produce sheet/foil (strip) from high-Si Fe alloys and which can also overcome some of the deficiencies of current multistage strip processes. The goal of the present project was design and demonstration of a new energy-efficient pilot process for producing high-Si electrical steel strip of commercial widths and thickness, and with superior electrical and magnetic properties than current electrical steels (Fe-3.2% Si as benchmark). The applications domain for these steels is electrical motor core laminations. We have addressed this goal by accomplishment of the following specific objectives and tasks: a) Development of an Fe-4Si-4Cr alloy with electrical resistivity >80 μΩ-cm, induction flux density >1.48 T at 5000 A/m and core loss 35% lower than the benchmark 3.2% Si alloy. The alloy which meets DOE target specifications for motor core attributes was designed with the Si content controlled for the electrical properties and the Cr content tailored to meet material/process workability requirements. b) A unique machining-based deformation processing system was designed and scaled-up to produce strip of commercial width (25 mm to 150 mm) and thickness (up to 0.5 mm) from the Fe-4Si-4Cr alloy and other alloys of varied workability including copper, Al6061-T6 and naval brass. The key attributes of the machining-based strip production are deformation processing by concentrated simple-shear; single-step production of strip from ingot using compact machine infrastructure; strip surface finish of Ra 0.35 to 1 micrometer that is comparable/superior to that of rolled strip; discrete production of strip that can potentially be done at point of use; and controllability of strip mechanical/formability properties by deformation control. c) The electrical, magnetic, surface quality, mechanical, formability, and metallurgical properties/attributes of the machining-based strip were established by direct ASTM standard or equivalent measurement techniques. d) Punching characteristics of the strip in terms of load, edge quality and macro defects were similar to those of conventional 3.2% Si electrical steels. These punching characteristics are critical from a manufacturability perspective for motor/transformer core applications. e) A modeling framework for energy analysis of multistage rolling and the machining-based deformation processing has been established. Application of this modeling to the two strip-processes showed that the machining-based process requires significantly lower specific energy for processing, ~ 25% of that for rolling. The modeling framework can be adapted for a range of sheet-metal forming, bulk metal forming, and machining processes. It can be used to identify key parameters controlling process specific energy. f) A comparative analysis of advantages and disadvantages of machining-based processing against rolling for strip production. The single stage machining-based processing, with compact infrastructure, represents a new manufacturing paradigm for sheet and foil manufacturing that can potentially also be applied to advanced titanium, aluminum, copper and magnesium alloys. The goals and objectives were accomplished by a cross-disciplinary project team comprising of personnel from Purdue University; M4 Sciences LLC, a small-business focused on advanced manufacturing technology development; the Pacific Northwest National Labs; and tool manufacturers. The team is currently in advanced discussions with multiple entities for future process development for commercialization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)

Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗