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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Compilation and Analysis of 20 and 30 GHz Rain Fade Events at the ACTS NASA Ground Station: Statistics and Model Assessment

The purpose of the propagation studies within the ACTS Project Office is to acquire 20 and 30 GHz rain fade statistics using the ACTS beacon links received at the NGS (NASA Ground Station) in Cleveland. Other than the raw, statistically unprocessed rain fade events that occur in real time, relevant rain fade statistics derived from such events are the cumulative rain fade statistics as well as fade duration statistics (beyond given fade thresholds) over monthly and yearly time intervals. Concurrent with the data logging exercise, monthly maximum rainfall levels recorded at the US Weather Service at Hopkins Airport are appended to the database to facilitate comparison of observed fade statistics with those predicted by the ACTS Rain Attenuation Model. Also, the raw fade data will be in a format, complete with documentation, for use by other investigators who require realistic fade event evolution in time for simulation purposes or further analysis for comparisons with other rain fade prediction models, etc. The raw time series data from the 20 and 30 GHz beacon signals is purged of non relevant data intervals where no rain fading has occurred. All other data intervals which contain rain fade events are archived with the accompanying time stamps. The definition of just what constitutes a rain fade event will be discussed later. The archived data serves two purposes. First, all rain fade event data is recombined into a contiguous data series every month and every year; this will represent an uninterrupted record of the actual (i.e., not statistically processed) temporal evolution of rain fade at 20 and 30 GHz at the location of the NGS. The second purpose of the data in such a format is to enable a statistical analysis of prevailing propagation parameters such as cumulative distributions of attenuation on a monthly and yearly basis as well as fade duration probabilities below given fade thresholds, also on a monthly and yearly basis. In addition, various subsidiary statistics such as attenuation rate probabilities are derived. The purged raw rain fade data as well as the results of the analyzed data will be made available for use by parties in the private sector upon their request. The process which will be followed in this dissemination is outlined in this paper.

Manning, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Restoration and PDS Archive of Apollo Lunar Rock Sample Data

In 2008, scientists at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) Lunar Sample Laboratory and Image Science & Analysis Laboratory (under the auspices of the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science Directorate or ARES) began work on a 4-year project to digitize the original film negatives of Apollo Lunar Rock Sample photographs. These rock samples together with lunar regolith and core samples were collected as part of the lander missions for Apollos 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 and 17. The original film negatives are stored at JSC under cryogenic conditions. This effort is data restoration in the truest sense. The images represent the only record available to scientists which allows them to view the rock samples when making a sample request. As the negatives are being scanned, they are also being formatted and documented for permanent archive in the NASA Planetary Data System (PDS) archive. The ARES group is working collaboratively with the Imaging Node of the PDS on the archiving.

Garcia, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

Gregg, Watson↗
NASA NTRS2009

Approach to Managing MeaSURES Data at the GSFC Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC)

A major need stated by the NASA Earth science research strategy is to develop long-term, consistent, and calibrated data and products that are valid across multiple missions and satellite sensors. (NASA Solicitation for Making Earth System data records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) 2006-2010) Selected projects create long term records of a given parameter, called Earth Science Data Records (ESDRs), based on mature algorithms that bring together continuous multi-sensor data. ESDRs, associated algorithms, vetted by the appropriate community, are archived at a NASA affiliated data center for archive, stewardship, and distribution. See http://measures-projects.gsfc.nasa.gov/ for more details. This presentation describes the NASA GSFC Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) approach to managing the MEaSUREs ESDR datasets assigned to GES DISC. (Energy/water cycle related and atmospheric composition ESDRs) GES DISC will utilize its experience to integrate existing and proven reusable data management components to accommodate the new ESDRs. Components include a data archive system (S4PA), a data discovery and access system (Mirador), and various web services for data access. In addition, if determined to be useful to the user community, the Giovanni data exploration tool will be made available to ESDRs. The GES DISC data integration methodology to be used for the MEaSUREs datasets is presented. The goals of this presentation are to share an approach to ESDR integration, and initiate discussions amongst the data centers, data managers and data providers for the purpose of gaining efficiencies in data management for MEaSUREs projects.

Vollmer, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS2010

IT Challenges for Space Medicine or How do We Protect Medical Information and Still Get Useful Work Done?

Space Medicine provides healthcare services of various types for astronauts throughout their lifetime starting from the time they are selected as astronauts. IT challenges include: protection of private medical information, access from locations both inside and outside NASA, nearly 24x7 access, access during disasters, international partner access, data archiving, off-region backup, secure communication of medical data to people outside the NASA system (e.g. expert consultants), efficient movement of medical record information between locations, search and retrieval of relevant information, and providing all of these services/capabilities within a limited budget. In Space Medicine, we have provided for these in various ways: limit the amount of private medical information stored locally, utilize encryption mechanisms that the international partners can also use, utilize 2-factor authentication, virtualize servers, employ concept-based search, and use of standardized terminologies (SNOMED) and messaging (HL7).

Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local summer insolation and greenhouse gas forcing drove warming and glacier retreat in New Zealand during the Holocene

Geological climate archives from the Holocene Epoch provide baseline information concerning natural climate variability. Temperate mountain glacier extent is sensitive to summer air temperature, thus geological records of past glacier length changes are a useful proxy for this climatic variable. Here we present a new cosmogenic 10 Be chronology of glacier length changes at Dart Glacier in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. Prominent moraines deposited 321 ± 44 yr ago (n = 11) and 7.8 ± 0.3 ka (n = 5) show glaciers during the Little Ice Age were less extensive than during the early Holocene. This pattern of net Holocene glacier retreat is consistent with emerging data from other catchments in New Zealand and across the southern mid-latitudes. Using the physical framework of a transient global climate model simulation, we suggest that cool summers in the early Holocene were promoted by the local summer insolation minimum, together with low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, causing an early Holocene austral glacial maximum. An insolation-driven reduction in seasonality at southern mid-latitudes may reconcile differences between early Holocene temperature reconstructions where climate proxies have different seasonal sensitivities. Furthermore, we suggest that rising greenhouse gas concentrations after 7 ka caused regional-scale glacier retreat and appear to be the dominant driver of multi-millennial summer temperature trends in the southern mid-latitudes during the present interglacial.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

ISS Potable Water Sampling and Chemical Analysis Results for 2016

This paper continues the annual tradition, at this conference, of summarizing the results of chemical analyses performed on archival potable water samples returned from the International Space Station (ISS). 2016 represented a banner year for life aboard the ISS, including the successful conclusion for 2 crewmembers of a record 1-year mission. Water reclaimed from urine and/or humidity condensate remained the primary source of potable water for the crewmembers of ISS Expeditions 46-50. The year was also marked by the end of a long-standing tradition of U.S. sampling and monitoring of Russian Segment potable water sources. Two water samples, taken during Expedition 46 and returned on Soyuz 44 in March 2016, represented the final Russian Segment samples to be collected and analyzed by the U.S. side. Although anticipated for 2016, a rise in the total organic carbon (TOC) concentration of the product water from the U.S. water processor assembly due to breakthrough of organic contaminants from the system did not materialize, as evidenced by the onboard TOC analyzer and archival sample results.

Straub, John E., II↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interim report on Landsat national archive activities

The Department of the Interior (DOI) has the responsibility to preserve and to distribute most Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data that have been acquired by the five Landsat satellites operational since July 1972. Data that are still covered by exclusive marketing rights, which were granted by the U.S. Government to the commercial Landsat operator, cannot be distributed by the DOI. As the designated national archive for Landsat data, the U.S. Geological Survey's EROS Data Center (EDC) has initiated two new programs to protect and make available any of the 625,000 MSS scenes currently archived and the 200,000 TM scenes to be archived at EDC by 1995. A specially configured system has begun converting Landsat MSS data from obsolete high density tapes (HDT's) to more dense digital cassette tapes. After transcription, continuous satellite swaths are (1) divided into standard scenes defined by a world reference system, (2) geographically located by latitude and longitude, and (3) assessed for overall quality. Digital browse images are created by subsampling the full-resolution swaths. Conversion of the TM HDT's will begin in the fourth quarter of 1992 and will be conducted concurrently with MSS conversion. Although the TM archive is three times larger than the entire MSS archive, conversion of data from both sensor systems and consolidation of the entire Landsat archive at EDC will be completed by the end of 1994. Some MSS HDT's have deteriorated, primarily as a result of hydrolysis of the pigment binder. Based on a small sample of the 11 terabytes of post-1978 MSS data and the 41 terabytes of TM data to be converted, it appears that to date, less than 2 percent of the data have been lost. The data loss occurs within small portions of some scenes; few scenes are lost entirely. Approximately 10,000 pre-1979 MSS HDT's have deteriorated to such an extent, as a result of hydrolysis, that the data cannot be recovered without special treatment of the tapes. An independent consulting division of a major tape manufacturer has analyzed affected tapes and is confident that restorative procedures can be applied to the HDT's to permit one pass to reproduce the data on another recording media. A system to distribute minimally processed Landsat data will be procured in 1992 and will be operational by mid-1994. Any TM or MSS data in the national archive that are not restricted by exclusive marketing rights will be reproduced directly from the archive media onto user specified computer-compatible media. TM data will be produced either at a raw level (radiometrically and geometrically uncorrected) or at an intermediate level (radiometrically corrected and geometrically indexed). MSS data will be produced to an intermediate level or to a fully corrected level (radiometrically corrected and geometrically transformed to an Oblique Mercator projection). The system will be capable of providing ordered scenes within 48 hours of receipt of order.

Boyd, John E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using pollen in turbidites for vegetation reconstructions

Turbidites, deposited by sub-aqueous gravity flows, are common in sedimentary archives worldwide and present a unique challenge and opportunity when reconstructing past vegetation through pollen analysis. When sampling pollen from a sediment core for palaeovegetation records, it is common practice to target background sediments (i.e. pelagic sediment) and avoid sampling turbidites, as they are presumed to portray a misleading picture of past vegetation. This assumption stems from our limited understanding of pollen abundance and distribution through turbidites, meaning that palynologists overlook deposits that could potentially be used to reconstruct past vegetation and climate. We present pollen assemblage and sedimentological data from four recent (<150 years) deep marine turbidite deposits from the Hikurangi Subduction Margin, Aotearoa-New Zealand, with the aim of understanding the abundance and distribution of pollen in fine-grained turbidites. We find that pollen is diluted in the bases of turbidites, but despite this dilution, the proportions of different pollen taxa remain consistent through each turbidite. These results confirm that pollen can be sampled from turbidites for palaeovegetation reconstructions and that sampling the fine-grained upper parts of turbidites will provide the best pollen recovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Antarctic Iceberg Tracking Based on Time Series of Aqua AMSRE Microwave Brightness Temperature Measurements

Observations of icebergs are identified as one of the requirements for the GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) in the area of reducing loss of life and property from natural and human-induced disasters. However, iceberg observations are not included among targets in the GEOSS 10-Year Implementation Plan, and thus there is an unfulfilled need for iceberg detection and tracking in the near future. Large Antarctic icebergs have been tracked by the National Ice Center and by the academic community using a variety of satellite sensors including both passive and active microwave imagers, such as SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) deployed on the DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) spacecraft. Improvements provided in recent years by NASA and non-NASA satellite radars, scatterometers, and radiometers resulted in an increased number of observed icebergs and even prompted a question: Is The Number of Antarctic Icebergs Really Increasing? [D.G. Long, J. Ballantyne, and C. Bertoia, Eos, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 83 (42): 469 & 474, 15 October 2002]. AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System) represents an improvement over SSM/I, its predecessor. AMSR-E has more measurement channels and higher spatial resolution than SSM/I. For example, the instantaneous field of view of the AMSR-E s 89-GHz channels is 6 km by 4 km versus 16 km by 14 km for SSM/I s comparable 85-GHz channels. AMSR-E, deployed on the Aqua satellite, scans across a 1450-km swath and provides brightness temperature measurements with nearglobal coverage every one or two days. In polar regions, overlapping swaths generate coverage up to multiple times per day and allow for creation of image time series with high temporal resolution. Despite these advantages, only incidental usage of AMSR-E data for iceberg tracking has been reported so far, none in an operational environment. Therefore, an experiment was undertaken in the RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) of NASA s (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Applied Science Program to demonstrate that passive microwave brightness temperature measurements acquired by AMSR-E can be effectively used to track iceberg movement around Antarctica. The RPC s robust computation environment enabled processing of terabytes of data products available from the NASA Distributed Active Archive Center at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Iceberg tracking based on the AMSR-E Level 2A data product was compared with records from the National Ice Center for currently existing icebergs. Some icebergs as small as roughly 10 km in size were easily observed, but tracking of many others, even larger ones, was obscured by presence of sea ice surrounding the icebergs. The best results, such as for the large iceberg A22A, were achieved when an iceberg was in open ocean.

Blonski, Slawomir↗
NASA NTRS2016

U.S. Spacesuit Knowledge Capture Accomplishments in Fiscal Year 2015

The NASA U.S. Spacesuit Knowledge Capture (SKC) Program continues to capture, share, and archive significant spacesuit-related knowledge with engineers and other technical staff and invested entities. Since its 2007 inception, the SKC Program has hosted and recorded more than 65 events. By the end of Fiscal Year (FY) 2015, 40 of these were processed and uploaded to a publically accessible NASA Web site where viewers can expand their knowledge about the spacesuit's evolution, known capability and limitations, and lessons learned. Sharing this knowledge with entities beyond NASA can increase not only more people's understanding of the technical effort and importance involved in designing a spacesuit, it can also expand the interest and support in this valuable program that ensures significant knowledge is retained and accessible. This paper discusses the FY 2015 SKC events, the release and accessibility of the approved events, and the program's future plans.

Chullen, Cinda↗
NASA NTRS2016

U.S. Spacesuit Knowledge Capture Accomplishments in Fiscal Year 2015

The NASA U.S. Spacesuit Knowledge Capture (SKC) Program continues to capture, share, and archive significant spacesuit-related knowledge with engineers and other technical staff and invested entities. Since its 2007 inception, the SKC Program has hosted and recorded more than 75 events. By the end of Fiscal Year (FY) 2015, 40 of these were processed and uploaded to a publically accessible NASA Web site where viewers can expand their knowledge about the spacesuit's evolution, known capabilities and limitations, and lessons learned. Sharing this knowledge with entities beyond NASA can increase not only more people's understanding of the technical effort and importance involved in designing a spacesuit, it can also expand the interest and support in this valuable program that ensures significant knowledge is retained and accessible. This paper discusses the FY 2015 SKC events, the release and accessibility of the approved events, and the program's future plans.

Chullen, Cinda↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Overview of NASA’s Catalog of Archived Suborbital Earth Science Investigations (CASEI): Supporting FAIR and Open Access to Airborne and Field Data

Since 2019, NASA’s Airborne Data Management Group (ADMG) within the Interagency Implementation and Advanced Concepts Team (IMPACT) has worked to promote and ensure the discoverability and accessibility of the agency’s non-satellite Earth science observations. A primary component of this effort is the development of NASA’s Catalog of Archived Suborbital Earth Science Investigations (CASEI) and the vetting of key contextual details required to sustain this unique inventory of airborne and field metadata. CASEI provides information on the science objectives motivating data collection, key events/time periods in the observational record aligned with the science objectives, complementary simultaneous observations, programmatic details, and much more. The diverse set of data formats and disciplines served by CASEI have required the implementation of a common data model to organize suborbital observation metadata and efficiently connect appropriate campaigns, platforms, and instruments. The CASEI inventory provides a single entry point for users to search and browse NASA’s airborne and field data archives, regardless of which repository is responsible for their stewardship. This presentation will provide a summary of the motivations for and the development of the CASEI system. Particular attention will be granted to how CASEI facilitates discovery and reuse of these lesser-known NASA data, supporting the Open Science vision and enhancing the return on investments made to collect these unique and varied observations. An up-to-date summary of CASEI inventory content and initial metrics will be provided. Current and future avenues ADMG is pursuing to enhance both CASEI and specific components of suborbital data stewardship at various stages of the data life cycle will also be discussed.

Stephanie M. Wingo↗
NASA NTRS2015

Landsat-8 Sensor Characterization and Calibration

Landsat-8 was launched on 11 February 2013 with two new Earth Imaging sensors to provide a continued data record with the previous Landsats. For Landsat-8, pushbroom technology was adopted, and the reflective bands and thermal bands were split into two instruments. The Operational Land Imager (OLI) is the reflective band sensor and the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), the thermal. In addition to these fundamental changes, bands were added, spectral bandpasses were refined, dynamic range and data quantization were improved, and numerous other enhancements were implemented. As in previous Landsat missions, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) cooperated in the development, launch and operation of the Landsat- 8 mission. One key aspect of this cooperation was in the characterization and calibration of the instruments and their data. This Special Issue documents the efforts of the joint USGS and NASA calibration team and affiliates to characterize the new sensors and their data for the benefit of the scientific and application users of the Landsat archive. A key scientific use of Landsat data is to assess changes in the land-use and land cover of the Earth's surface over the now 43-year record. In order to perform these analyses and avoid confusing sensor changes with Earth surface changes, a solid understanding of the sensors' performance, consistent geolocation and radiometry are essential. Particularly with the significant changes in the Landsat-8 sensors relative to previous Landsat missions, this characterization becomes all the more important.

Radiometry↗
DOE OSTI2026

QPatLib v1.0 — Measurement-based quantum simulation Pauli string unitary pattern collections

This Zenodo record accompanies the paper “Scalable Measurement-Based Quantum Simulation Patterns for Benchmarking” arXiv.2605.12502 and provides QPatLib v1.0 measurement-pattern datasets in human-readable JSONL together with a ZIP archive of OpenQASM 3.0 circuits used for validation and reproducibility. The patterns and circuits implement Pauli string unitaries for benchmark cases. Cases include all possible string combinations for less than 6 qubits and strings used in Hamiltonians for certain diatomic molecules for 6 or more qubits. Format: Each pattern_*.jsonl file is containins measurement patterns for all subsets for a given model/instance and subset strategy: it begins with a preamble containing model metadata, subset definitions, provenance, and (when feasible) full-pattern test results, followed by one pattern entry per subset. Each subset entry includes a required pattern_ascii field storing the measurement pattern in the measurement-calculus/Graphix standard with signal shifting, written left-to-right in the canonical order nodes → edges → measurements (with signal dependencies) → byproduct corrections (X/Z). The circuits are included as circuit_files.zip. Patterns in this record were validated against the corresponding circuits and checked for causal flow. Codes for generating these patterns can be found at QPatLib repository on Github

Graphix↗
NASA NTRS2017

ISS Potable Water Sampling and Chemical Analysis Results for 2016

This paper continues the annual tradition of summarizing at this conference the results of chemical analyses performed on archival potable water samples returned from the International Space Station (ISS). 2016 represented a banner year for life on board the ISS, including the successful conclusion for two crew members of a record one-year mission. Water reclaimed from urine and/or humidity condensate remained the primary source of potable water for the crew members of ISS Expeditions 46-50. The year 2016 was also marked by the end of a long-standing tradition of U.S. sampling and monitoring of Russian Segment potable water sources. Two water samples taken during Expedition 46 in February 2016 and returned on Soyuz 44, represented the final Russian Segment samples to be collected and analyzed by the U.S. side. Although anticipated for 2016, a rise in the total organic carbon (TOC) concentration of the product water from the U.S. water processor assembly due to breakthrough of organic contaminants from the system did not materialize, as evidenced by the onboard TOC analyzer and archive sample results.

Straub, John E., II↗
NASA NTRS1991

Corrosion of metal particle and metal evaporated tapes

Very high coercivity metal particle (MP) and metal evaporated (ME) tapes are being used in 8mm video and digital audio tape applications, and more recently in digital data recording applications. In view of the inherent susceptibility of such media to environmental corrosion, a number of recent studies have addressed their long term stability and archivability. These studies have used an accelerated corrosion test based either on elevated temperature-humidity or polluting gas atmospheres known as Battelle tests. A comparison of the Battelle test results performed at different laboratories reveals a large variation from one location to another, presumably due to incorrect replication of the Battelle condition. Furthermore, when the Battelle tests are performed on enclosed cartridges, it is quite possible that diffusion limits the penetration of the extremely low concentration polluting gaseous species to the inner layers of the tapes during the short time of the accelerated test, whereas in real life these diffusion limitations may not apply. To avoid this uncertainty, the corrosion behavior of commercial 8mm MP and ME tapes when cassettes without their external plastic cases were exposed to 50 deg C and 80 percent RH for 7.5 weeks is investigated.

Speliotis, Dennis E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗