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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Mitigating the noise of DESI mocks using analytic control variates

In order to address fundamental questions related to the expansion history of the Universe and its primordial nature with the next generation of galaxy experiments, we need to model reliably large-scale structure observables such as the correlation function and the power spectrum. Cosmological N-body simulations provide a reference through which we can test our models, but their output suffers from sample variance on large scales. Fortunately, this is the regime where accurate analytic approximations exist. To reduce the variance, which is key to making optimal use of these simulations, we can leverage the accuracy and precision of such analytic descriptions using Control Variates (CV). The power of control variates stems from utilizing inexpensive but highly correlated surrogates of the statistics one wishes to measure. The stronger the correlation between the surrogate and the statistic of interest, the larger the variance reduction delivered by the method. We apply two control variate formulations to mock catalogs generated in anticipation of upcoming data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) to test the robustness of its analysis pipeline. Our CV-reduced measurements offer a factor of 5-10 improvement in the measurement error compared with the raw measurements. We explore the relevant properties of the galaxy samples that dictate this reduction and comment on the improvements we find on some of the derived quantities relevant to Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Closures and Simulation for Thermal Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Nonlinear Temperature Dependence

Because of the practical challenge of rendering very complex realistic spatial structures for numerical work, it is common practice to resort to characterizing such media as stochastic mixtures of materials, ideally parametrized with low order statistics such as the mean, variance, and correlation functions of the now random material properties. This enables realizations of the medium to be repeatedly generated and radiation transport computations to, in principle, be performed for a large ensemble of these realizations to obtain a statistically well-characterized radiation field. Statistical post-processing yields desired quantities such as conditional and unconditional mean radiation flux and probability distributions of transmitted radiation. However, such computations prove expensive for all but the simplest stochastic geometries and are most suited for benchmarking approximate models. The most common approximations lead to homogenized media so that transport computations are required only on a single medium realization but by construct provide only limited statistical information on the radiation field. Almost all approximate approaches to this problem attempt to develop equations for low order moments of the radiation intensity (mean, second moment, correlation function) but inevitably encounter a closure problem: the equation for any statistical moment will contain terms depending on unknown higher-order moments. Thus, the challenge shifts to one of developing closure relations that relate the unknown moments to the lower order moments. Under very special conditions, an exact closure can be derived but in general closures are heuristically stated constitutive relations. Also, closure approaches depend on whether the mixing statistics are spatially and/or temporally continuous as in fluctuating turbulent fields, or discontinuous as in randomly mixed solid chunks of material. Thus, unconditional averaging is generally applied in the former case but conditional averaging is more appropriate when the mixing is discontinuous. In this work, the emphasis is on binary statistical mixtures of immiscible fluids as as such the quantities of interest are averages (flux, temperature) conditioned on the material type.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differential credibility assessment for statistical downscaling

Climate science is increasingly using (i) ensembles of climate projections from multiple models derived using different assumptions and/or scenarios and (ii) process-oriented diagnostics of model fidelity. Efforts to assign differential credibility to projections and/or models are also rapidly advancing. A framework to quantify and depict the credibility of statistically downscaled model output is presented and demonstrated. Here, the approach employs transfer functions in the form of robust and resilient generalized linear models applied to downscale daily minimum and maximum temperature anomalies at 10 locations using predictors drawn from ERA-Interim reanalysis and two global climate models (GCM; GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR). The downscaled time series are used to derive several impact relevant CLIMDEX temperature indices that are assigned credibility based on (1) the reproduction of relevant large-scale predictors by the GCMs (i.e. fraction of regression beta-weights derived from predictors that are well-reproduced) and (2) the degree of variance in the observations reproduced in the downscaled series following application of a new variance inflation technique. Credibility of the downscaled predictands varies across locations, between the two GCM and is generally higher for minimum temperature than maximum temperature. The differential credibility assessment framework demonstrated here is easy to use and flexible. It can be applied as is to inform decision makers regarding projection confidence, and/or extended to include other components of the transfer functions, and/or used to weight members of a statistically downscaled ensemble.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust error calibration for serial crystallography

Serial crystallography is an important technique with unique abilities to resolve enzymatic transition states, minimize radiation damage to sensitive metalloenzymes and perform de novo structure determination from micrometre-sized crystals. This technique requires the merging of data from thousands of crystals, making manual identification of errant crystals unfeasible. cctbx.xfel.merge uses filtering to remove problematic data. However, this process is imperfect, and data reduction must be robust to outliers. We add robustness to cctbx.xfel.merge at the step of uncertainty determination for reflection intensities. This step is a critical point for robustness because it is the first step where the data sets are considered as a whole, as opposed to individual lattices. Robustness is conferred by reformulating the error-calibration procedure to have fewer and less stringent statistical assumptions and incorporating the ability to down-weight low-quality lattices. We then apply this method to five macromolecular XFEL data sets and observe the improvements to each. The appropriateness of the intensity uncertainties is demonstrated through internal consistency. This is performed through theoretical CC 1/2 and I /σ relationships and by weighted second moments, which use Wilson's prior to connect intensity uncertainties with their expected distribution. This work presents new mathematical tools to analyze intensity statistics and demonstrates their effectiveness through the often underappreciated process of uncertainty analysis.

Mittan-Moreau, David W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real time monitoring of COVID-19 intervention effectiveness through contact tracing data

Communities worldwide have used vaccines and facemasks to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. When an individual opts to vaccinate or wear a mask, they may lower their own risk of becoming infected as well as the risk that they pose to others while infected. The first benefit–reducing susceptibility–has been established across multiple studies, while the second–reducing infectivity–is less well understood. Using a new statistical method, we estimate the efficacy of vaccines and facemasks at reducing both types of risks from contact tracing data collected in an urban setting. We find that vaccination reduced the risk of onward transmission by 40.7% [95% CI 25.8–53.2%] during the Delta wave and 31.0% [95% CI 19.4–40.9%] during the Omicron wave and that mask wearing reduced the risk of infection by 64.2% [95% CI 5.8–77.3%] during the Omicron wave. By harnessing commonly-collected contact tracing data, the approach can broadly provide timely and actionable estimates of intervention efficacy against a rapidly evolving pathogen.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic symplectic reduced-order modeling for model-form uncertainty quantification in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles

Here, this work focuses on the representation of model-form uncertainties in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles. In prior contributions, the modeling of such uncertainties was formalized and applied to quantify the impact of, and the error generated by, pair-potential selection in the microcanonical ensemble (NVE). In this work, we extend this formulation and present a linear-subspace reduced-order model for the canonical (NVT) and isobaric (NPT) ensembles. The symplectic reduced-order basis is randomized on the tangent space of the Stiefel manifold to provide topological relationships and capture model-form uncertainty. Using the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS), we assess the relevance of these stochastic reduced-order atomistic models on canonical problems involving a Lennard-Jones fluid and an argon crystal melt.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Component-Level Analysis of Heating and Cooling Loads in the U.S. Residential Building Stock

The residential building sector accounts for a substantial portion of total energy consumption in the United States and offers a significant opportunity for energy reduction and decarbonization through improvements in energy efficiency. Heating and air conditioning are the primary contributors to residential energy usage and electricity system peak demand. However, due to the diversity of the housing stock and the complexity of factors affecting heating and cooling demand, identifying the relative contributions to heating and cooling loads poses challenges. To address this, we applied the ResStock analysis tool to simulate 550,000 building energy models, providing statistical representation of residential buildings in the contiguous United States. We introduced outputs that quantified the heating and cooling influence of different components of a home, such as air leakage, envelope components (ceilings, walls, windows, foundations), internal heat gains from people, lighting, plug loads, and duct losses and gains. Leveraging the granularity of ResStock, we present a dataset to enable deeper understanding of the contributors to heating and cooling loads as a function of housing characteristics such as location, envelope efficiency, and building type. This work aims to support prioritization of research and development and informed decision-making for residential building decarbonization.

building simulation↗
DOE OSTI2023

An atomistic theory of nucleation: Self-organization via non-equilibrium work and fluctuations

For this work, insights from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, highlighting the role of work and fluctuations at the microscale, are applied toward the development of a fundamental, rigorous and purely atomistic theory of nucleation. Nanoscale fluctuations in order, density and heat influence the local nucleation rate by orders of magnitude, necessitating their inclusion through a modern approach. Coarse-graining over the underlying Hamiltonian dynamics allows derivation of a microscale expression for the nucleation rate in terms of a classical path integral over far from equilibrium trajectories and their associated work. Second law violating states at the microscale, as found from the dynamics of small critical nucleation clusters, contribute exponentially to the observable macroscale nucleation rate.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

A charge-density-based general cation insertion algorithm for generating new Li-ion cathode materials

Future lithium (Li) energy storage technologies, in particular solid-state configurations with a Li metal anode, opens up the possibility of using cathode materials that do not necessarily contain Li in its as-made state. To accelerate the discovery and design of such materials, we develop a general, chemically, and structurally agnostic methodology for identifying the optimal Li sites in any crystalline material. For a given crystal structure, we attempt multiple Li insertions at symmetrically in-equivalent positions by analyzing the electronic charge density obtained from first-principles density functional theory. In this report, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this procedure in successfully identifying the positions of the Li ion in well-known cathode materials using only the empty host (charged) material as guidance. Furthermore, applying the algorithm to over 2000 candidate cathode empty host materials we obtain statistics of Li site preferences to guide future developments of novel Li-ion cathode materials, particularly for solid-state applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microscopic calculations with noniterative finite amplitude methods and the application to neutron radiative captures and inelastic scatterings

We derive the fully self-consistent quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) equations with noniterative finite amplitude methods and calculate the transition strengths of giant resonances. Then, we apply the QRPA results to both neutron radiative capture calculations based on the statistical Hauser-Feshbach theory and inelastic scattering calculations based on distorted-wave Born approximation (DWBA). We compare the calculated results with available experimental data and demonstrate how our approach can reproduce giant resonances and various nuclear reactions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

GANplifying event samples

A critical question concerning generative networks applied to event generation in particle physics is if the generated events add statistical precision beyond the training sample. We show for a simple example with increasing dimensionality how generative networks indeed amplify the training statistics. We quantify their impact through an amplification factor or equivalent numbers of sampled events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Turbulence statistical analysis of the L-H transition and RMPs in KSTAR

Here, we investigate the turbulence statistics associated with low-to-high confinement (L-H) transitions and externally applied resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) in KSTAR. Time-series fluctuations of electron density n e , electron temperature T e , and the time derivative of the poloidal magnetic field dB θ /dt (Mirnov coils) are analysed using information-geometric measures (information rate Γ and information length $\mathcal{L}$ = ∫ Γ dt), together with kurtosis κ and variance σ 2 . In low-density upper single-null plasmas (n e ~ 1.2 x 10 19 m -3 ), a ~80 kHz magnetic mode coupling n e , T e , dB θ /dt and emerges prior to the L-H transition and persists into the edge-localised modes H-mode. Edge-localised RMPs (ERMPs) suppress this coherent mode but enhance intermittency, producing frequent bursts that abruptly reshape the time-dependent probability density functions (PDFs) and generate large spikes in Γ (with smaller changes in κ), signalling ERMP-driven departures from quasi-stationarity. The impact of ERMPs on background fluctuation levels depends on density, radial location, and the fluctuating variable itself ($\tilde{n}$, $\tilde{T}$, $\dot{B}$ θ ), whereas $\mathcal{L}$ provides a robust, regime-agnostic measure of cumulative statistical reorganisation and spatial decorrelation. In particular, at low density we observe weaker coupling between $\tilde{n}$ and $\tilde{T}$, along with a tendency toward decreased radial correlation-most clearly for $\tilde{T}$-under ERMPs. Overall, information geometry cleanly captures intermittent events, quantifies non-equilibrium PDF evolution, and offers a compact, cross-diagnostic metric for assessing resonant magnetic perturbation effects on edge transport and correlation across densities, radial locations, and confinement states.

Kim, Eun-jin [Coventry Univ. (United Kingdom); Seo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Suppressing the sample variance of DESI-like galaxy clustering with fast simulations

Ongoing and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, will observe vast regions of sky and a wide range of redshifts. In order to model the observations and address various systematic uncertainties, N-body simulations are routinely adopted, however, the number of large simulations with sufficiently high mass resolution is usually limited by available computing time. Therefore, achieving a simulation volume with the effective statistical errors significantly smaller than those of the observations becomes prohibitively expensive. In this study, we apply the Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) method to mitigate the sample variance of the DESI-like galaxy clustering in the AbacusSummit simulations, with the assistance of the quasi-N-body simulations FastPM. Based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, we construct different FastPM galaxy catalogs, including the luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars, with their number densities and two-point clustering statistics well matched to those of AbacusSummit. We also employ the same initial conditions between AbacusSummit and FastPM to achieve high cross-correlation, as it is useful in effectively suppressing the variance. Our method of reducing noise in clustering is equivalent to performing a simulation with volume larger by a factor of 5 and 4 for LRGs and ELGs, respectively. We also mitigate the standard deviation of the LRG bispectrum with the triangular configurations k 2 = 2k 1 = 0.2 h Mpc -1 by a factor of 1.6. With smaller sample variance on galaxy clustering, we are able to constrain the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale parameters to higher precision. The CARPool method will be beneficial to better constrain the theoretical systematics of BAO, redshift space distortions (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

encore : an O ( N g2) estimator for galaxy N -point correlation functions

ABSTRACT We present a new algorithm for efficiently computing the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of a 3D density field for arbitrary N. This can be applied both to a discrete spectroscopic galaxy survey and a continuous field. By expanding the statistics in a separable basis of isotropic functions built from spherical harmonics, the NPCFs can be estimated by counting pairs of particles in space, leading to an algorithm with complexity $\mathcal {O}(N_\mathrm{g}^2)$ for Ng particles, or $\mathcal {O}(N_\mathrm{FFT}\log N_\mathrm{FFT})$ when using a Fast Fourier Transform with NFFT grid-points. In practice, the rate-limiting step for N > 3 will often be the summation of the histogrammed spherical harmonic coefficients, particularly if the number of radial and angular bins is large. In this case, the algorithm scales linearly with Ng. The approach is implemented in the encore code, which can compute the 3PCF, 4PCF, 5PCF, and 6PCF of a BOSS-like galaxy survey in ${\sim}100$ CPU-hours, including the corrections necessary for non-uniform survey geometries. We discuss the implementation in depth, along with its GPU acceleration, and provide practical demonstration on realistic galaxy catalogues. Our approach can be straightforwardly applied to current and future data sets to unlock the potential of constraining cosmology from the higher point functions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative analysis of Raman spectral parameters for carbon fibers: practical considerations and connection to mechanical properties

Although the literature on the Raman spectra of carbon fibers is vast, no consistent, robust predictive relationship between mechanical properties of carbon fibers and spectral parameters exists. This shortcoming is due to the use of numerous fitting functions to evaluate Raman spectra of carbon fibers and the inconsistencies in establishing the best fitting models in a statistically robust fashion. To address this gap, we present a comprehensive work on the Raman spectra of carbon fibers that combines a vast library of experimental data with a robust numerical analysis and a statistical evaluation of a wide range of suggested fitting models. This manuscript begins with a brief review of the commonly applied fitting models. Then, the Raman spectra of 32 commercially available polyacrylonitrile-based carbon fibers collected at excitation wavelengths 532, 633, and 785 nm are presented and the best fit for all fibers is evaluated based on several statistical criteria in conjunction with numerical calculations and physical arguments. The results suggest that high-performance fibers must be fit with at least five peaks, whereas high-tensile modulus fibers are best fit with at least six distinct peaks. Finally, we employ simultaneous fitting of the Raman spectra of specific fibers and wavelengths and demonstrate that strong correlations exist between mechanical properties and the D1 peak position and shape across the range of evaluated mechanical properties. Finally, we suggest straightforward improvements in fitting analysis procedures that can be implemented to increase coherency in the understanding of the underlying carbon fiber microstructure intuited from Raman spectroscopy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data assimilation for combustion ignition delay time simulation using schlieren image velocimetry

This study sought to improve the accuracy of simulating spray penetration and combustion ignition delay by means of data assimilation (DA). The simulations were conducted using the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations and assimilating the schlieren image data. In DA, an ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) was used to build the statistical model, making the simulation results more accurate without any change in the governing equations. Recognizing that the spray-cone injection angle has a large effect on penetration, we created ensemble members with different injection angles. And we applied the two-component velocity distribution calculated via SIV and updated both velocity and temperature by using a DA statistical model derived from RANS ensemble simulations. The ignition delay time is generally known to vary even under the same experimental conditions because it is influenced by many factors. In this study, we attempted the transient DA-assisted RANS simulation to predict the ignition delay time even when the temporal resolution and accuracy of the observation data ware insufficient. Our trials offer an example of how a combination of techniques can be effectively used to assimilate experimental data obtained under restricted conditions.

Combustion simulation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations

The information of when and where region-specific patterns in both mean and extreme temperatures leading to heat stress will emerge from the present-day climate variability is important to plan adaptation options, but to date studies on this issue still remain limited and fragmented. Here, we estimate the time of emergence (TOE) of temperature and wet-bulb temperature (Tw), a better indication of heat stress, using fine-scale, long-term regional climate model projections under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios across six different domains. Differently from previous studies, the TOE is determined using three methods applied on impact-relevant variables: two different signal-to-noise frameworks based on summer mean temperature and Tw and a statistical test to identify significant differences in daily extreme distributions. The TOE response to RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with respect to the end of 20th century variability differs significantly regardless of which TOE metric is applied. For summer mean temperature, the land fraction reaching TOE is expected to exceed 90% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5, whereas the increase rate of land exposure to TOE tends to stagnate over time under the RCP2.6 so that more than 40% of land will not experience TOE by the end of the 21st century. Compared to temperature, the TOE of Tw is reached earlier in most of the wet tropics but is delayed in hot and dry regions because of the nonlinear response of Tw to humidity. For both temperature and Tw, the TOE appears earlier in regions with low baseline variability, such as in the tropics. Despite the uncertainties arising from the choice of TOE metrics, the vast majority of regions in Africa and southeast Asia experience TOE in the early 21st century under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which stresses the urgent need for developing adequate adaptation strategies in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗