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NASA NTRS1987

Risk analysis methodology survey

NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

Batson, Robert G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Impact response of graphite/epoxy fabric structures

The impact damage resistance and damage tolerance of graphite/epoxy fabric plate (coupon) and cylinder structures were investigated and compared in an analytical and experimental study. Hercules A370-5H/3501-6 five-harness satin weave cloth in a quasi-isotropic (0,45)(sub s) laminate configuration was utilized. Specimens were impacted with 12.7 mm diameter steel spheres at velocities ranging from 10 m/s to 100 m/s. Damage resistance of the specimens was determined through the use of dye penetrant enhanced x-radiography, sectioning, epoxy burnoff, and visual methods. Damage tolerance of the flat plate structures was assessed in a residual tensile test while damage tolerance of the cylinder structures was assessed via pressurization tests. Impacted fabric laminates exhibited matrix crushing, fiber breakage, delamination, and fiber bundle disbonds; the latter being a unique damage mode for fabric laminates. Plate delamination and bundle disbonding was found to be more extensive around the central core area of fiber damage in the coupon specimens than in the cylinder specimens which showed a cleaner damage area due to impact. Damage resistance and damage tolerance were predicted by utilizing a five-step analysis approach previously utilized for coupon configurations. Two of the five steps were adapted to account for the effects of the structural configuration of the pressurized cylinder. The damage resistance analysis provided good correlation to the fiber damage region of both the coupon and cylinder specimens. There was little difference in the size of this region in the two specimen types. However, the analysis was not able to predict the distribution of damage through-the-thickness. This was important in assessing the damage tolerance of the cylinders. The damage tolerance analysis was able to predict the residual tensile strength of the coupons. A general methodology to predict the impact damage resistance and damage tolerance of composite structures utilizing coupon data is presented.

Lagace, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Technology Candidates for Air-to-Air and Air-to-Ground Data Exchange

Technology Candidates for Air-to-Air and Air-to-Ground Data Exchange is a two-year research effort to visualize the U. S. aviation industry at a point 50 years in the future, and to define potential communication solutions to meet those future data exchange needs. The research team, led by XCELAR, was tasked with identifying future National Airspace System (NAS) scenarios, determining requirements and functions (including gaps), investigating technical and business issues for air, ground, & air-to-ground interactions, and reporting on the results. The project was conducted under technical direction from NASA and in collaboration with XCELAR's partner, National Institute of Aerospace, and NASA technical representatives. Parallel efforts were initiated to define the information exchange functional needs of the future NAS, and specific communication link technologies to potentially serve those needs. Those efforts converged with the mapping of each identified future NAS function to potential enabling communication solutions; those solutions were then compared with, and ranked relative to, each other on a technical basis in a structured analysis process. The technical solutions emerging from that process were then assessed from a business case perspective to determine their viability from a real-world adoption and deployment standpoint. The results of that analysis produced a proposed set of future solutions and most promising candidate technologies. Gap analyses were conducted at two points in the process, the first examining technical factors, and the second as part of the business case analysis. In each case, no gaps or unmet needs were identified in applying the solutions evaluated to the requirements identified. The future communication solutions identified in the research comprise both specific link technologies and two enabling technologies that apply to most or all specific links. As a result, the research resulted in a new analysis approach, viewing the underlying architecture of ground-air and air-air communications as a whole, rather than as simple "link to function" paired solutions. For the business case analysis, a number of "reference architectures" were developed for both the future technologies and the current systems, based on three typical configurations of current aircraft. Current and future costs were assigned, and various comparisons made between the current and future architectures. In general, it was assumed that if a future architecture offers lower cost than the current typical architecture, while delivering equivalent or better performance, it is likely that the future solution will gain industry acceptance. Conversely, future architectures presenting higher costs than their current counterparts must present a compelling benefit case in other areas or risk a lack of industry acceptance. The business case analysis consistently indicated lower costs for the proposed future architectures, and in most cases, significantly so. The proposed future solutions were found to offer significantly greater functionality, flexibility, and growth potential over time, at lower cost, than current systems. This was true for overall, fleet-wide equipage for domestic and oceanic air carriers, as well as for single, General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The overall research results indicate that all identified requirements can be met by the proposed solutions with significant capacity for future growth. Results also illustrate that the majority of the future communication needs can be met using currently allocated aviation RF spectrum, if used in more effective ways than it is today. A combination of such optimized aviation-specific links and commercial communication systems meets all identified needs for the 50-year future and beyond, with the caveat that a new, overall function will be needed to manage all information exchange, individual links, security, cost, and other factors. This function was labeled "Delivery Manager" (DM) within this research. DM employs a distributed client/server architecture, for both airborne and ground communications architectures. Final research results included identifying the most promising candidate technologies for the future system, conclusions and recommendations, and identifying areas where further research should be considered.

Communications↗

NASA NTRS2024

Test and Analysis of the 8-foot Diameter Cylindrical Sandwich Composite Test Article CTA8.2B: As part of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project

The buckling response of thin-walled cylindrical structures have long been shown to be sensitive to various imperfections. That is, imperfections related to load introduction, boundary conditions, material property variation, and geometric deviations can all contribute to experimentally obtained buckling loads being lower than the buckling loads predicted for perfect representations of the same thin-walled cylindrical structure. To account for the influence of geometry-based imperfections of a thin-walled cylindrical structure on buckling response, a design factor (also known as a buckling knockdown factor) is used during the design phase. Guidelines for buckling knockdown factors are readily available in NASA SP-8007, Buckling of Thin Walled Circular Cylinders, which was updated in 2020. Prior to this recent update, NASA SP-8007 had not been updated since 1969, and since that time, computational analysis, experimental testing, and manufacturing methods have significantly improved. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project (SBKF, NESC Assessment 07-010-E) had the goal of developing buckling design recommendations for select classes of metallic and composite launch-vehicle structures [3]. Specifically, the test and analysis results from the fourth SBKF composite test article SBKF-P3-CYL-CTA8.2B, which is referred to as CTA8.2B, are described in this paper. This test was the fourth in a series of four tests on sandwich composite cylinders that will be used to experimentally validate analysis methods, which in turn can be used to develop new analysis-based shell buckling design guidelines for typical sandwich composite launch vehicle cylindrical structures. Publications describing previous test validation with analysis are available in Refs. CTA8.2B was designed to occupy one corner of the design space with approximately equal bending stiffnesses in the axial and transverse directions and have a larger ratio of radius to effective shell thickness. Each test article had a unique design and was designed to occupy a specific region of the design space. CTA8.2B was an 8-foot diameter honeycomb-core sandwich cylinder that was fabricated and tested at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The primary objectives of this test were to interrogate the structural capability of a composite test article, and to verify the test article design and analysis approach for cylinders subjected to axial compression and combined axial and bending loads. First, descriptions of the test article design and test are given in Section 2.0, and modeling and analysis methods used in support of the test article design and testing activities are described briefly in Section 3.0. Then, select test results are presented and compared to predicted results in Section 4.0, and concluding remarks are presented in Section 5.0. Finally, drawings of CTA8.2B and references used to support the test and analysis are provided in the Appendix.

Nonlinear analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Control System Development for A Zero Boil-Off Hydrogen Storage Demonstration With Two-Stage Active Cooling

A NASA team is designing and building a test article to demonstrate the long duration storage of liquid hydrogen via active cooling (cryocoolers) while implementing a two-stage cooling approach. This activity is one of a large portfolio of NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate funded activities which focuses on the technology maturation needed for long duration storage of cryogenic liquid in-space. The current state-of-the-art for liquid hydrogen storage on-orbit is on the order of hours while NASA’s planned missions require storage for months, or even years. To enable such a long duration, Zero Boil-Off conditions must be achieved which requires passive technologies to minimize environmental heat loads, but also active cooling to intercept and reject the remaining heat to deep space. The implementation of active cooling results in a significant amount of dry mass added to the vehicle. Utilizing a Two-Stage Cooling approach, analysis and testing to date indicates the Zero Boil-Off of liquid hydrogen can be achieved with less mass and electrical power relative to a single-stage cooling approach where only one cryocooler is used. This activity will demonstrate the fully integrated suite of technologies needed to enable the Two-Stage Cooling approach which includes Multi-Layer Insulation blankets, Low Conductivity Structures, a Tube-On-Tank Heat Exchanger, Tube-On-Shield Heat Exchanger and a Two-Stage Cryogenerator (both 90 Kelvin and 20 Kelvin) with each stage having an independently controlled circulation loop. The bulk of the heat load is intercepted by the 90 Kelvin loop via a thin foil heat exchanger internal to the insulation blankets (also known as a Broad Area Cooling Shield), with the remainder removed at cryofluid temperature (20 Kelvin) by tubes directly welded to the outer tank surface. In this paper, we examine the challenges of controlling the system, and describe the development of control algorithms and software for future testing with liquid hydrogen. The interactions between the cryofans which control circulation loop mass flow rates, electrical heaters which vary the cryocooler lift to simulate the operation of variable-lift flight units, tank heaters which can vary the overall heat load, and the effects of changes in circulation loop pressure as temperatures change, can be complex and must be well understood to maintain steady-state propellant conditions and achieve Zero Boil-Off. Parallel PID loops and watchdog programs implemented on the user interface system will help bring the systems to steady state operation and keep them at selected operating points within acceptable error, while avoiding runaway feedback loops.

cryogenics↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Search for Neutron-Antineutron Oscillation in the NOvA Experiment

This dissertation presents the search for neutron-antineutron oscillation using the data collected in the Far Detector of the NOvA experiment. Searching for neutron anti-neutron oscillation is becoming an active research direction that promises immense values for the field of particle physics and cosmology. Experimental observation of the phenomenon would offer the possibility of new physics associated with anomalous $B$ and $B-L$ violating processes. This work is opening with a general introduction of the neutron-antineutron oscillation, its theoretical motivations, and recent empirical results related to the topic. The data-driven trigger that allows the NOvA experiment to collect the signal-like events constitutes a significant work of this study and will be described in detail. Following the discussion of the trigger, the thesis focuses on the development of a selection method to further classify collected events into the signal candidates and the background. This search chooses an analysis approach in which the real data is partially unblinded to assist the development and evaluation of the event selection. Because this is an ongoing work and essential aspects of the analysis have not been all finalized, this thesis closes out with a sensitivity study. By analyzing the data from 4 months of Far Detector exposure, a 90\% C.L. sensitivity limit of $4\times10^{30}$\,years is placed on the oscillation lifetime of bound neutrons inside the $^{12}$C targets. This limit is equivalent to a sensitivity of $0.57\times10^{8}$\,s placed on the oscillation lifetime of free neutrons. The NOvA's sensitivity is a factor of 5 below the most stringent limit of $2.7\times10^8$\,s set by the Super-Kamiokande experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1973

Aeroelastic effects on space shuttle dynamics

A simplified analysis procedure for determining static and dynamic aeroelastic loads for the space shuttle and space shuttle configuration is presented. A computer program, originally developed for the Atlas launch vehicle, was modified for simplifying the turbulence response analysis approach. This approach is compared with a more detailed and time consuming approach to space shuttle response to turbulence which was developed earlier. The simplification in going from interference to lumped aerodynamic data was found to give adequate results for preliminary design aeroelastic analysis. Gust loads were found to be approximately 50% of the maximum static aeroelastic loads. The autopilot became unstable when ten elastic modes were included. Elastic effects were found to be less than 3% in the static aeroelastic analysis.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2002

Hubble Space Telescope Pointing Performance Due to Micro-Dynamic Disturbances from the NICMOS Cryogenic Cooler

The Vibration Admittance Test (VET) was performed to measure the emitted disturbances of the Near Infrared Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer (NICMOS) Cryogenic Cooler (NCC) in preparation for NCC installation onboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) during Servicing Mission 3B (SM3B). Details of the VET ground-test are described, including facility characteristics, sensor complement and configuration, NCC suspension, and background noise measurements. Kinematic equations used to compute NCC mass center displacements and accelerations from raw measurements are presented, and dynamic equations of motion for the NCC VET system are developed and verified using modal test data. A MIMO linear frequency-domain analysis method is used to compute NCC-induced loads and HST boresight jitter from VET measurements. These results are verified by a nonlinear time-domain analysis approach using a high-fidelity structural dynamics and pointing control simulation for HST. NCC emitted acceleration levels not exceeding 35 micro-g rms were measured in the VET and analysis methods herein predict 3.1 milli-areseconds rms jitter for HST on-orbit. Because the NCC is predicted to become the predominant disturbance source for HST, VET results indicate that HST will continue to meet the 7 milli-arcsecond pointing stability mission requirement in the post-SM3B era.

Clapp, Brian R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Optical Testing and Verification Methods for the James Webb Space Telescope Integrated Science Instrument Module Element

NASA's James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a 6.6m diameter, segmented, deployable telescope for cryogenic IR space astronomy (~40K). The JWST Observatory includes the Optical Telescope Element (OTE) and the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM) that contains four science instruments (SI) and the fine guider. The SIs are mounted to a composite metering structure. The SI and guider units were integrated to the ISIM structure and optically tested at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center as a suite using the Optical Telescope Element SIMulator (OSIM). OSIM is a full field, cryogenic JWST telescope simulator. SI performance, including alignment and wave front error, were evaluated using OSIM. We describe test and analysis methods for optical performance verification of the ISIM Element, with an emphasis on the processes used to plan and execute the test. The complexity of ISIM and OSIM drove us to develop a software tool for test planning that allows for configuration control of observations, associated scripts, and management of hardware and software limits and constraints, as well as tools for rapid data evaluation, and flexible re-planning in response to the unexpected. As examples of our test and analysis approach, we discuss how factors such as the ground test thermal environment are compensated in alignment. We describe how these innovative methods for test planning and execution and post-test analysis were instrumental in the verification program for the ISIM element, with enough information to allow the reader to consider these innovations and lessons learned in this successful effort in their future testing for other programs.

spaceborne telescopes↗

DOE OSTI2023

Final Technical Report Wireless Microsensors System for Monitoring Deep Subsurface Operations

This final technical report describes the main findings of the project Wireless Microsensors System for Monitoring Deep Subsurface Operations (FE0031850). The project was part of the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory FOA 1998 program to develop new sensor systems for direct observation of parameters associated with CO2 injection and to provide data collection without being disruptive to operations. The overall DOE program was aimed at developing and validating innovative transformational sensor systems, amenable for integration with autonomous intelligent monitoring systems, that are capable of being deployed within the casing annulus and do not have casing perforation or wires/cables in the annulus for installation, power supply, or data transmission needs. Project accomplishments included 1) design and fabrication of a wireless downhole sensor system to monitor parameters for CO2 storage, 2) field testing of the sensor system in two legacy oil & gas wells, and 3) development of an analysis approach that validates the measurements and demonstrates the application of the technology to depict CO2 movement in the subsurface. The project leveraged new sensor technologies along with specialized wellbore telemetry, deployment, and analysis methods designed to address the challenges and risks related to CO2 storage in the subsurface. Results from field testing were a mixture of successes and challenges. The temperature sensor rings, installation procedures in legacy oil & gas wells, wireless powering demonstration, automated data collection, and material compatibility were successful. The wireless data transfer through cement to the wellhead via the sensor relays was not functional beyond the first relay. Consequently, work in the last year of the project included some additional testing of data transmission through different materials along with modeling and analysis of field data for CO2 monitoring applications. This work suggested there are options like polymer cements and open hole annuli that may allow point-to-point transmission along the borehole. The techno-economic analysis suggests that the sensor system is ~40% less expensive than fiber optic distributed temperature system. Modeling of CO2 storage applications suggests temperature can provide an indicator of CO2 saturation but would be best combined with pressure sensors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2018

Smap: A Hydrologist Goes Crazy with a New High-Quality Dataset

By providing global measurements of near-surface soil moisture (down to about 5 cm) with unprecedented accuracy, the Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) satellite mission has opened the door to new and (in my opinion) exciting hydrological science. In this seminar, I present the results of a recent series of analyses performed with SMAP soil moisture data, covering a wide range of topics: (a) the characterization of the dynamics of near-surface soil moisture, with implications for forecasting soil moisture days into the future; (b) the multi-faceted character of the SMAP data, in the sense that different, established analysis approaches can extract information from the data that is largely (and perhaps unexpectedly) complementary; and (c) the interpretation of the data in the context of large-scale water fluxes. This final analysis is particularly exciting to me because it shows that, once the relevant algorithms are calibrated, precipitation and streamflow rates in hydrological basins can be estimated from the SMAP data alone - a reflection of the fact that the near-surface soil is a critical gateway between the atmospheric and subsurface branches of the hydrological cycle.

SMAP↗

NASA NTRS2008

Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

Beaty, James R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Kickstarting a New Era of Lunar Industrialization via Campaign of Lunar COTS Missions

To support the goals of expanding our human presence and current economic sphere beyond LEO, a new plan was constructed for NASA to enter into partnerships with industry to foster and incentivize a new era of lunar industrialization. For NASA to finally be successful in achieving sustainable human exploration missions beyond LEO, lessons learned from our space history have shown that it is essential for current program planning to include affordable and economic development goals as well as address top national priorities to obtain much needed public support. In the last 58 years of NASA's existence, only Apollo's human exploration missions beyond LEO were successful since it was proclaimed to be a top national priority during the 1960's. However, the missions were not sustainable and ended abruptly in 1972 due to lack of funding and insufficient economic gain. Ever since Apollo, there have not been any human missions beyond LEO because none of the proposed program plans were economical or proclaimed a top national priority. The proposed plan outlines a new campaign of low-cost, commercial-enabled lunar COTS (Commercial Orbital Transfer Services) missions which is an update to the Lunar COTS plan previously described. The objectives of this new campaign of missions are to prospect for resources, determine the economic viability of extracting those resources and assess the value proposition of using these resources in future exploration architectures such as Mars. These missions would be accomplished in partnership with commercial industry using the wellproven COTS Program acquisition model. This model proved to be very beneficial to both NASA and its industry partners as NASA saved significantly in development and operational costs, as much as tenfold, while industry partners successfully expanded their market share and demonstrated substantial economic gain. Similar to COTS, the goals for this new initiative are 1) to develop and demonstrate cost-effective, cis-lunar commercial services, such as lunar transportation, lunar mining and lunar ISRU operations; 2) enable development of an affordable and economical exploration architecture for future missions to Mars and beyond; and 3) to incentivize the creation of new lunar markets through use of lunar resources for economic benefit to NASA, commercial industry and the international community. These cost-effective services would not only enable NASA to economically and sustainably achieve its human exploration missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond but it would also kickstart a new era of lunar industrialization. This paper will describe the goals, objectives and approach for implementing this new campaign of missions. It will also describe the potential benefits and progress that can be accomplished with these low-cost, Lunar COTS missions. Lastly, a preliminary economic analysis approach is proposed for understanding the cost and potential return on investment in the use of lunar resources to reach the goal of lunar industrialization and an expanded and sustainable human presence into cis-lunar space and beyond.

Lunar Exploration↗

NASA NTRS2010

Image Segmentation Analysis for NASA Earth Science Applications

NASA collects large volumes of imagery data from satellite-based Earth remote sensing sensors. Nearly all of the computerized image analysis of this data is performed pixel-by-pixel, in which an algorithm is applied directly to individual image pixels. While this analysis approach is satisfactory in many cases, it is usually not fully effective in extracting the full information content from the high spatial resolution image data that s now becoming increasingly available from these sensors. The field of object-based image analysis (OBIA) has arisen in recent years to address the need to move beyond pixel-based analysis. The Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation (RHSEG) software developed by the author is being used to facilitate moving from pixel-based image analysis to OBIA. The key unique aspect of RHSEG is that it tightly intertwines region growing segmentation, which produces spatially connected region objects, with region object classification, which groups sets of region objects together into region classes. No other practical, operational image segmentation approach has this tight integration of region growing object finding with region classification This integration is made possible by the recursive, divide-and-conquer implementation utilized by RHSEG, in which the input image data is recursively subdivided until the image data sections are small enough to successfully mitigat the combinatorial explosion caused by the need to compute the dissimilarity between each pair of image pixels. RHSEG's tight integration of region growing object finding and region classification is what enables the high spatial fidelity of the image segmentations produced by RHSEG. This presentation will provide an overview of the RHSEG algorithm and describe how it is currently being used to support OBIA or Earth Science applications such as snow/ice mapping and finding archaeological sites from remotely sensed data.

Tilton, James C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Big Data Analysis of Massive PMU Datasets: A Data Platform Perspective

The discovery of `event signatures' and useful insights from very large historical Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets is predicated on offline Big Data analysis approaches that rely on the generation of predictive features on a massive scale. This paper presents lessons learned from a data platform perspective towards reducing barriers to adoption of Big Data analytics against a real dataset of almost half a trillion data points drawn from over 400 PMUs distributed across the North American power grid. We demonstrate software abstractions and targeted performance optimizations that can lead to significant productivity gains for power systems researchers seeking to perform offline exploratory temporal analysis and modeling tasks, with a focus on feature generation. We describe how our optimized approach goes beyond a naive application of mainstream Big Data technologies, enabling feature generation tasks, that previously took days or even weeks, to now be completed in just a few hours.

Kumar, Vijay S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mass Spectrometry-Based High-Throughput Quantification of Bioproducts in Liquid Culture

To meet the ever-increasing need for high-throughput screening in metabolic engineering, information-rich, fast screening methods are needed. Mass spectrometry (MS) provides an efficient and general approach for metabolite screening and offers the capability of characterizing a broad range of analytes in a label-free manner, but often requires a range of sample clean-up and extraction steps. Liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA) coupled MS is an image-guided MS surface analysis approach that directly samples and introduces metabolites from a surface to MS. Here, we combined the advantages of LESA–MS and an acoustic liquid handler with stable isotope-labeled internal standards. This approach provides absolute quantitation of target chemicals from liquid culture-dried droplets and enables high-throughput quantitative screening for microbial metabolites. In this paper, LESA–MS was successfully applied to quantify several different metabolites (itaconic acid, triacetic acid lactone, and palmitic acid) from different yeast strains in different mediums, demonstrating its versatility, accuracy, and efficiency across a range of microbial engineering applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1992

A new analysis of beam waveguide antennas considering the presence of the metal enclosure

Large beam waveguide (BWG) type ground station antennas are generally designed using analysis which ignores the presence of the metallic tube enclosing the beam waveguide mirrors. The common analysis approaches are physical optics and Gaussian mode analyses. The weakness of these analyses is that they do not shed any light with regards to the effect of the metal tube. In this paper, the first known BWG analysis which considers the presence of the metal tube is presented. Numerical results of a two-mirror system using the new analysis are compared with experiments which have verified the new analysis.

Cha, Alan G.↗