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DOE OSTI2025

Global Framework for Emulation of Nuclear Calculations

We introduce a hierarchical framework that combines ab initio many-body calculations with a Bayesian neural network, developing emulators capable of accurately predicting nuclear properties across isotopic chains simultaneously and being applicable to different regions of the nuclear chart. We benchmark our developments using the oxygen isotopic chain, achieving accurate results for ground-state energies and nuclear charge radii, while providing robust uncertainty quantification. Our framework enables global sensitivity analysis of nuclear binding energies and charge radii with respect to the low-energy constants that describe the nuclear force.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗

NASA NTRS2021

Conjugate Photoelectron Energy Spectra Derived From Coincident FUV and Radio Measurements

We present a method for estimating incident photoelectrons' energy spectra as a function of altitude by combining global scale far-ultraviolet (FUV) and radio-occultation (RO) measurements. This characterization provides timely insights important for accurate interpretation of ionospheric parameters inferred from the recently launched Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) observations. Quantification of photoelectron impact is enabled by the fact that conjugate photoelectrons (CPEs) directly affect FUV airglow emissions but not RO measurements. We demonstrate a technique for estimation of photoelectron fluxes and their spectra by combining coincident ICON and COSMIC2 measurements and show that a significant fraction of ICON-FUV measurements is affected by CPEs during the winter solstice. A comparison of estimated photoelectron fluxes with measured photoelectron spectra is used to gain further insights into the estimation method and reveals consistent values within 10–60 eV. Plain Language Summary The impact of solar radiation on the atmosphere produces highly energetic electrons, which travel freely along the magnetic Earth's field lines from one hemisphere to the other. When these electrons flow from the sunlit side into the nightside hemisphere, they interact with the neutral species and produce noticeable effects in the ionosphere such as an increase in electron temperature and enhancement of airglow emissions. This study presents a method to quantify the amount of precipitating electrons and their energy on a global scale using two recent satellite missions, ICON and COSMIC2. Our results demonstrate that coincident far-ultraviolet (ICON) and radio-occultation (COSMIC2) measurements from space are valuable resources to study precipitating electrons in the ionosphere and their impact on inferring ionospheric plasma parameters.

J M Urco↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond pinball loss: Quantile methods for calibrated uncertainty quantification

Amongthemanywaysofquantifying uncertainty in a regression setting, specifying the full quantile function is attractive, as quantiles are amenable to interpretation and evaluation. A model that predicts the true conditional quantiles for each input, at all quantile levels, presents a correct and efficient representation of the underlying uncertainty. To achieve this, many current quantile-based methods focus on optimizing the pinball loss. However, this loss restricts the scope of applicable regression models, limits the ability to target many desirable properties (e.g. calibration, sharpness, centered intervals), and may produce poor conditional quantiles. In this work, we develop new quantile methods that address these shortcomings. In particular, we propose methods that can apply to any class of regression model, select an explicit balance between calibration and sharpness, optimize for calibration of centered intervals, and produce more accurate conditional quantiles. We provide a thorough experimental evaluation of our methods, which includes a high dimensional uncertainty quantification task in nuclear fusion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electric Water Heaters for Transactive Systems: Model Evaluations and Performance Quantification

Electric water heaters (EWHs) are opportune appliances for implementing demand-side control. EWH models serve as a fundamental step toward accurately estimating EWH flexibility potential and designing proper control strategies. Existing studies have adapted numerous modeling approaches in evaluating the potential of EWHs for a variety of grid applications. This paper presents an analytical study that evaluates the performance of state-of-art EWH models in terms of accuracy and computational complexity for adaptation in evaluation studies for the transactive system. The work proposes a transactive control strategy that optimally utilizes the thermal inertia of EWHs for providing grid services. Here, the performance of the control strategy and the impact of modeling accuracy is evaluated for device-level and feeder-level use cases using the IEEE 123 node test distribution system appropriately populated with EWHs. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the control strategy in reducing the feeder demand during peak period by 13% and also quantities the impact of using simplified modeling approaches for determining the potential of EWHs for providing grid services.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Time-temperature-superposition analysis of diverse datasets by the minimum-arclength method: long-term prediction with uncertainty margins

In a recent publication, we carried out an extensive analysis of an unsupervised method of determining optimum shift factors in time-temperature-superposition of accelerated-aging data that involves minimizing the vertical arclength to obtain the master curve. For synthetic Arrhenius data with a variety of noise distributions, the work showed that, in conjunction with bootstrap-resampling, the method can produce reliable estimates of the mean activation energy along with uncertainty quantification. Here, we apply the above method to six different datasets taken from the published literature and demonstrate accurate prediction of mean activation energy from the data as-is without the need for any pre-processing or fitting. We also compare uncertainty margins computed by second-order bootstrap with that by linear regression theory and show that the former appears to provide consistent margins in the presence of common noise types in real data, including intra-isotherm measurement-errors, sample-to-sample variations, and intrinsic deviation from perfect Arrhenius behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

TransformerG2G: Adaptive time-stepping for learning temporal graph embeddings using transformers

Dynamic graph embedding has emerged as a very effective technique for addressing diverse temporal graph analytic tasks (i.e., link prediction, node classification, recommender systems, anomaly detection, and graph generation) in various applications. Such temporal graphs exhibit heterogeneous transient dynamics, varying time intervals, and highly evolving node features throughout their evolution. Hence, incorporating long-range dependencies from the historical graph context plays a crucial role in accurately learning their temporal dynamics. In this paper, we develop a graph embedding model with uncertainty quantification, TransformerG2G, by exploiting the advanced transformer encoder to first learn intermediate node representations from its current state (t) and previous context (over timestamps [t–1,t–l], l is the length of context). Moreover, we employ two projection layers to generate lower-dimensional multivariate Gaussian distributions as each node's latent embedding at timestamp t. We consider diverse benchmarks with varying levels of "novelty" as measured by the TEA (Temporal Edge Appearance) plots. Here, our experiments demonstrate that the proposed TransformerG2G model outperforms conventional multi-step methods and our prior work (DynG2G) in terms of both link prediction accuracy and computational efficiency, especially for high degree of novelty. Furthermore, the learned time-dependent attention weights across multiple graph snapshots reveal the development of an automatic adaptive time stepping enabled by the transformer. Importantly, by examining the attention weights, we can uncover temporal dependencies, identify influential elements, and gain insights into the complex interactions within the graph structure. For example, we identified a strong correlation between attention weights and node degree at the various stages of the graph topology evolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduction of Iron (III) Oxide in Microwaves Toward Gasification Studies

The purpose of this study is to reduce hematite (Fe2O3) using hydrogen (H2), carbon monoxide (CO), and methane (CH4) gases using microwave irradiation. Conventional temperature programmed reduction of iron phase transformation under H2, CO, and CH4 agree with the literature. Furthermore, the activation energy for the iron phase transformation in a conventional reactor was in the order of H2>CO>CH4, suggesting that CH4 was the best reductant to initiate the reduction at a much lower temperature than CO, and CO was significantly better than H2 atmosphere. Due to the uneven temperature distribution, the apparent activation energy of microwave reduction under H2 was approximately 1/4th when compared to the conventional reduction in H2. X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis showed a mixed oxide phase in microwave reduction as opposed to the clear phase transformation in conventional studies. To combat the temperature measurement issues in microwave studies, fiber optic sensors and Forward Looking InfraRed (FLIR) sensors were used to acquire the actual temperature distribution in the catalyst bed. Therefore, a reasonably accurate activation energy estimation was achieved in the catalyst bed. Combining these with the characterization and quantification of the different iron phases in microwave reduction will provide a blueprint for future microwave-assisted gasification studies.

Aireddy, Divakar Reddy↗

NASA NTRS2014

Test and Recommendation of Flight-forward Resistive Temperature Detector for Resource Prospector Mission

The Resource Prospector Mission (RPM) is an in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) technology demonstration mission planned to launch in 2018. The mission will use the Regolith and Environment Science & Oxygen and Lunar Volatile Extraction (RESOLVE) Payload to prospect for lunar volatiles such as water, oxygen, and carbon dioxide. These compounds will validate ISRU capability. The payload, particularly the Lunar Advanced Volatile Analysis (LAVA) subsystem, requires numerous temperature measurements to accurately control on-board heaters that keep the volatiles in the vapor phase to allow quantification and prevent the clogging of delivery lines. Previous spaceflight missions have proven that Resistive Temperature Detector (RTD) failure impedes mission success. The research resulted in a recommendation for a flight-forward RTD. The recommendation was based on accuracy, consistency, and ease of installation of RTDs procured from IST, QTI, and Honeywell.

LAVA↗

NASA NTRS2012

Test and Recommendation of Flight-Forward Resistive Temperature Detector for Resource Prospector Mission

LAVA↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of the convolutional neural networks on permeability estimation from micro-CT scanned sandstone and carbonate rock images

Rock permeability is one of the most crucial properties affecting subsurface fluid flow behaviors. To accurately and robustly estimate the permeability, Digital Rock Physics, including micro-CT scanning technology and direct flow simulations on scanned images, has prevailed in recent years. Besides, machine learning techniques such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been widely adopted and achieved success in permeability estimations directly from rock images. However, existing ML methods used for permeability estimation from rock images lack uncertainty quantification that causes unreliable predictions and overconfident estimations on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. Here, in this work, we propose a PI3NN-CNN framework to address this problem. PI3NN-CNN consists of a CNN model for absolute permeability estimation and a PI3NN method to quantify the estimation uncertainty. It is able to quantify the uncertainty for in-distribution (InD) data with a desired confidence level, and identify OOD samples to avoid overconfident predictions. We demonstrate the method using micro-CT scanned images from two sandstone and two carbonate rocks. We found that PI3NN-CNN generates accurate predictions for InD samples, while producing high-quality prediction uncertainties regardless of the prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, PI3NN-CNN identifies OOD samples using its special network initialization scheme. The unique feature of PI3NN-CNN makes it applicable to more complex real-world image-based data for robust learning and predictions without overconfident estimations when the ground-truth information is unavailable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Water Interplays during Dysprosium Electrodeposition in Pyrrolidinium Ionic Liquid: Deconvoluting the Pros and Cons for Rare Earth Metallization

The electrochemical production of rare earth metals (REMs) in ionic liquids (ILs) has received much attention as a promising, sustainable and replacement to the molten salt electrolysis. Water additives have been recently suggested as a strategy to overcome the limitations of the ionic liquid process, but without complete assessment of its overall viability for the REMs production. In this regard, a full investigation of water impact on dysprosium (Dy) electrodeposition in pyrrolidinium triflate (BMPyOTf) ionic liquid was carried out. Water introduction was revealed to involve an interplay of implications on the electrodeposition process, including coordination, speciation, reduction pathways, interfacial dynamics, nucleation and metal stability and purity. In highly dry conditions, the reduction occurs at very negative potentials (-3.3V) in a consecutive pathway, resulting in negligible metal electrodeposition (low rate and efficiency) at the electrode surface. Initial water introduction (<30% molar fraction) leads to partitioning of the Dy complex between water and IL coordinated speciation, giving rise to an additional wave at more positive potentials (-2.4V). Probing and quantification of the heterogeneous Dy speciation by spectroscopic analyses enabled the uncovering of the reduction mechanism and accurate evaluation of the mass transport properties. While lowering the reduction thermodynamics, water addition also improved the nucleation, deposition rate and faradaic efficiency. In spite of these benefits, stripping voltammetric analysis also indicated substantial chemical reactivity of the deposited Dy metal with water additives and/or electrolyte components, under extended timescales. Surface characterization of the obtained product confirmed limited Dy metal stability (mostly oxidized/fluorinated) and purity (~60%) in the studied system. Moreover, high water introduction (>30% molar fraction) was shown to trigger a fast hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), downgrading the robustness of system efficiency. We report the overall impact of water additives seems to engender both promoting and mitigating effects on the Dy electrodeposition process, making the case for more innovative strategies to be sought.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Physics-Informed Graph Convolutional Network for Active Distribution System Voltage Prediction

Here this letter proposes a novel data-driven probabilistic physics-informed graph convolutional network (GCN) for active distribution system voltage prediction with PVs and EVs. It leverages both measurements and network topology to accurately and efficiently predict node voltages without the need for an accurate distribution system power flow model. The dropout-enabled Bayesian inference is developed to achieve uncertainty quantification of the voltage prediction. Thanks to the network model embedding, it also has robustness against topology changes, a key difference with existing machine learning-based approaches. Comparison results with other state-of-the-art machine learning methods on a realistic 759-node distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve better accuracy and robustness under different scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism

Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗

NASA NTRS2006

Accuracy Quantification of the Loci-CHEM Code for Chamber Wall Heat Transfer in a GO2/GH2 Single Element Injector Model Problem

A robust rocket engine combustor design and development process must include tools which can accurately predict the multi-dimensional thermal environments imposed on solid surfaces by the hot combustion products. Currently, empirical methods used in the design process are typically one dimensional and do not adequately account for the heat flux rise rate in the near-injector region of the chamber. Computational Fluid Dynamics holds promise to meet the design tool requirement, but requires accuracy quantification, or validation, before it can be confidently applied in the design process. This effort presents the beginning of such a validation process for the Loci-CHEM CFD code. The model problem examined here is a gaseous oxygen (GO2)/gaseous hydrogen (GH2) shear coaxial single element injector operating at a chamber pressure of 5.42 MPa. The GO2/GH2 propellant combination in this geometry represents one the simplest rocket model problems and is thus foundational to subsequent validation efforts for more complex injectors. Multiple steady state solutions have been produced with Loci-CHEM employing different hybrid grids and two-equation turbulence models. Iterative convergence for each solution is demonstrated via mass conservation, flow variable monitoring at discrete flow field locations as a function of solution iteration and overall residual performance. A baseline hybrid was used and then locally refined to demonstrate grid convergence. Solutions were obtained with three variations of the k-omega turbulence model.

West, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS2006

Accuracy Quantification of the Loci-CHEM Code for Chamber Wall Heat Fluxes in a G02/GH2 Single Element Injector Model Problem

A robust rocket engine combustor design and development process must include tools which can accurately predict the multi-dimensional thermal environments imposed on solid surfaces by the hot combustion products. Currently, empirical methods used in the design process are typically one dimensional and do not adequately account for the heat flux rise rate in the near-injector region of the chamber. Computational Fluid Dynamics holds promise to meet the design tool requirement, but requires accuracy quantification, or validation, before it can be confidently applied in the design process. This effort presents the beginning of such a validation process for the Loci- CHEM CPD code. The model problem examined here is a gaseous oxygen (GO2)/gaseous hydrogen (GH2) shear coaxial single element injector operating at a chamber pressure of 5.42 MPa. The GO2/GH2 propellant combination in this geometry represents one the simplest rocket model problems and is thus foundational to subsequent validation efforts for more complex injectors. Multiple steady state solutions have been produced with Loci-CHEM employing different hybrid grids and two-equation turbulence models. Iterative convergence for each solution is demonstrated via mass conservation, flow variable monitoring at discrete flow field locations as a function of solution iteration and overall residual performance. A baseline hybrid grid was used and then locally refined to demonstrate grid convergence. Solutions were also obtained with three variations of the k-omega turbulence model.

West, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS2002

Quantification of Surface Suspended Sediments along a River Dominated Coast with NOAA AVHRR and SeaWiFS Measurements: Louisiana, USA

The ability to quantify suspended sediment concentrations accurately over both time and space using satellite data has been a goal of many environmental researchers over the past few decades This study utilizes data acquired by the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Orbview-2 Sea-viewing wide field-of-view (SeaWiFS) ocean colour sensor, coupled with field measurements to develop statistical models for the estimation of near-surface suspended sediment and suspended solids "Ground truth" water samples were obtained via helicopter, small boat and automatic water sampler within a few hours of satellite overpasses The NOAA AVHRR atmospheric correction was modified for the high levels of turbidity along the Louisiana coast. Models were developed based on the field measurements and reflectance/radiance measurements in the visible and near infrared Channels of NOAA-14 and Orbview-2 SeaWiFS. The best models for predicting surface suspended sediment concentrations were obtained with a NOAA AVHRR Channel 1 (580-680nm) cubic model, Channel 2 (725-1100 nm) linear mod$ and SeaWiFs Channel 6 (660-68Onm) power modeL The suspended sediment models developed using SeaWiFS Channel 5 (545-565 nm) were inferior, a result that we attribute mainly to the atmospheric correction technique, the shallow depth of the water samples and absorption effects from non-sediment water constituents.

Myint, S. W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field deployable trace radioisotope analysis through combined electrochemical and alpha spectroscopy methods

A method for depositing actinides directly onto a 4H-SiC Schottky barrier diode (SBD) detector as a field deployable actinides sensor was developed to enable off-site analysis, shortening the time to obtain critical information such as elements, concentration, and/or isotopic ratio related to the radiological situation. A thin film of Hg was first electrodeposited onto the Pt contact of the SiC diode, followed by chronoamperometric deposition of microgram levels of actinides under conventional control conditions. The 4H-SiC diode maintained consistent functionality through the electrodeposition process and showed resolved alpha-energy spectra that contained accurate isotopic information demonstrating the feasibility of a combined chemical and radiological sensor for field actinide detection and quantification.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗