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At least 253 records · Page 14

Projecting end-of-century climate extremes and their impacts on the hydrology of a representative California watershed

Abstract. In California, it is essential to understand the evolution of water resources in response to a changing climate to sustain its economy and agriculture and to build resilient communities. Although extreme conditions have characterized the historical hydroclimate of California, climate change will likely intensify hydroclimatic extremes by the end of the century (EoC). However, few studies have investigated the impacts of EoC extremes on watershed hydrology. We use cutting-edge global climate and integrated hydrologic models to simulate EoC extremes and their effects on the water-energy balance. We assess the impacts of projected driest, median, and wettest water years under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 on the hydrodynamics of the Cosumnes River basin. Substantial changes to annual average temperature (>+2.5 ∘C) and precipitation (>+38 %) will characterize the EoC extreme water years compared to their historical counterparts. A shift in the dominant form of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, is projected to fall earlier. These changes reduce snowpack by more than 90 %, increase peak surface water and groundwater storages up to 75 % and 23 %, respectively, and drive the timing of peak storage to occur earlier in the year. Because EoC temperatures and soil moisture are high, both potential and actual evapotranspiration (ET) increase. The latter, along with the lack of snowmelt in the warm EoC, causes surface water and groundwater storages to significantly decrease in summer, with groundwater showing the highest rates of decrease. These changes result in more ephemeral EoC streams with more focused flow and increased storage in the mainstem of the river network during the summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective

Abstract. The large spatial scale of global Earth system models (ESMs) is often cited as an obstacle to using the output by water resource managers in localized decisions. Recent advances in computing have improved the fidelity of hydrological responses in ESMs through increased connectivity between model components. However, the models are seldom evaluated for their ability to reproduce metrics that are important for and resonate with practitioners or that allow practitioners to situate higher-resolution model outputs within a cascade of uncertainty stemming from different models and scenarios. We draw on the combined experience of the author team and water manager workshop participants to identify salient water management metrics and evaluate whether they are credibly reproduced over the conterminous USA by the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble. We find that, while the exact values may not match the observations, aspects such as interannual variability can be reproduced by CESM2 for the mean wet day precipitation and length of dry spells. CESM2 also captures the proportion of total annual precipitation that derives from the heaviest rain days in watersheds that are not snow-dominated. Aggregating the 7 d mean daily runoff to two-digit Hydrological Unit Code (HUC2) watersheds also shows that rain-dominated regions capture the timing and interannual variability of annual maximum and minimum flows. We conclude that there is potential for far greater use of large-ensemble ESMs, such as CESM2, in long-range water management decisions to supplement high-resolution regional projections.

Tye, Mari R. (ORCID:0000000324911020)↗

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗

Comparing Synoptic Pattern Evolution for Flash‐Flood‐Producing and Non‐Flash‐Flood‐Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Understanding how the short-term evolution of synoptic weather patterns influence Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) is essential, as these systems are responsible for over half of central U.S. flash floods, leading to substantial socioeconomic and water resource management impacts. This study analyzes long-term MCS data, flash flood reports, and atmospheric reanalyses from 2007 to 2017 using a machine learning clustering algorithm to examine how the synoptic weather patterns evolve prior to MCS initiation. While the clusters reflect seasonal and regional differences in MCS occurrence, they do not consistently distinguish between MCSs that do and do not produce flash floods. Systems in the southern Great Plains are more flood-prone when a synoptic-scale forcing, located near the system, drives strong water vapor transport from the nearby moisture source. More generally under different synoptic weather patterns, a broader precipitating area is the most dominant factor governing MCS flash flood potential.

atmospheric dynamics↗

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Basin‐Scale Testing of Alternative Data‐Driven Approaches

Abstract Integrated hydrological modeling is an effective method for understanding interactions between parts of the hydrologic cycle, quantifying water resources, and furthering knowledge of hydrologic processes. However, these models are dependent on robust and accurate datasets that physically represent spatial characteristics as model inputs. This study evaluates multiple data‐driven approaches for estimating hydraulic conductivity and subsurface properties at the continental‐scale, constructed from existing subsurface dataset components. Each subsurface configuration represents upper (unconfined) hydrogeology, lower (confined) hydrogeology, and the presence of a vertical flow barrier. Configurations are tested in two large‐scale U.S. watersheds using an integrated model. Model results are compared to observed streamflow and steady state water table depth (WTD). We provide model results for a range of configurations and show that both WTD and surface water partitioning are important indicators of performance. We also show that geology data source, total subsurface depth, anisotropy, and inclusion of a vertical flow barrier are the most important considerations for subsurface configurations. While a range of configurations proved viable, we provide a recommended Selected National Configuration 1 km resolution subsurface dataset for use in distributed large‐and continental‐scale hydrologic modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Myb Mayberry Wetland

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Myb Mayberry Wetland. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Myb Mayberry Wetland produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Mayberry Wetland site is a 300-acre restored wetland on Sherman Island, north of Mayberry Slough, that is on the property of Mayberry Farms and managed by the California Department of Water Resources and Ducks Unlimited. During Summer 2010, the site was restored from a pepperweed and annual grassland pasture to a wetland through a project managed by Bryan Brock (bpbrock@water.ca.gov). A flux tower equipped to analyze energy, H2O, CO2, and CH4 fluxes was installed on October 14, 2010. At the time of installation, flooding of the site had only recently begun after extensive reconstruction of the wetland bathymetry conducted during the summer. Although some small patches of tules remain within the site, the site is a patchwork of deep and shallow open water with some remaining vegetation. Currently, there is an intention to flood-to-kill the current pepperweed and upland grasses and let the wetland plants propagate naturally, so no additional plant manipulation will occur.

Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala↗

Ensemble‐Based Spatially Distributed CLM5 Hydrological Parameter Estimation for the Continental United States

Abstract One of the major challenges in large‐domain hydrological modeling efforts lies in the estimation of spatially distributed hydrological parameters while simultaneously accounting for their associated uncertainties. Addressing this challenge is particularly difficult in ungauged locations. With growing societal demands for large‐scale streamflow projections to inform water resource management and long‐term planning, evaluating and constraining hydrological parameter uncertainty is increasingly vital. This study introduces a hybrid regionalization approach to enhance hydrological predictions of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) across the Continental United States (CONUS), with a total of 50,629 1/8° grid cells. This hybrid method combines the strengths of two existing techniques: parameter regionalization and streamflow signature regionalization. It identifies ensemble behavioral parameters for each 1/8° grid cell across the CONUS domain, tailored to three distinct streamflow signatures focused on low flows, high flows, and annual water balance. Evaluating this hybrid method for 464 CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large‐sample Studies) basins demonstrates a significant improvement in CLM5 hydrological predictions, even in challenging arid regions. In CONUS applications, the derived spatially distributed parameter sets capture both spatial continuity and variation of parameters, highlighting their heterogeneous nature within specific regions. Overall, this hybrid regionalization approach offers a promising solution to the complex task of improving hydrological modeling over large domains for important hydrological applications.

CLM5↗

Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning

Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Applying Non-Energy Impacts from Other Jurisdictions in Cost-Benefit Analyses of Energy Efficiency Programs: Resources for States for Utility Customer-Funded Programs

Avoided energy and capacity costs are the primary yardstick utilities use to determine which energy efficiency programs are cost-effective for their customers. But sometimes "non-energy impacts" — not commonly recognized as directly associated with energy generation, transmission and distribution — represent substantial benefits, such as improving comfort, air quality and public health. Considering whether and how to include non-energy impacts is an important part of cost-benefit analyses for these programs. This report offers practical considerations for deciding which non-energy impacts to include and how to apply values or methods from other jurisdictions. Researchers reviewed studies quantifying non-energy impacts used in 30 states and applied a five-point system to indicate transferability of a value or method from each study for 16 categories of non-energy impacts: Water resource costs and benefits; Other fuels costs and benefits; Avoided environmental compliance costs; Environmental impacts; Productivity; Health and safety; Asset value; Energy and/or capacity price suppression effects; Avoided costs of compliance with Renewable Portfolio Standard requirements; Avoided credit and collection costs; Avoided ancillary services; Comfort; Economic development and job impacts; Public health impacts; Energy security impacts; Increased reliability. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office supported this work.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Come Hell or High-Water: Challenges for Adapting Pacific Northwest Water Law

The Pacific Northwest region of the United States has been recognized as a leader in crafting water laws that work to balance human needs and ecological considerations. However, this region is experiencing changing dynamics that test the strength of existing water policies and laws. Such dynamics include increasing populations, new and exempt uses, quantification of tribal treaty rights, species protection, renegotiation of the Columbia River Treaty, and the impacts of a changing climate. Together, these dynamics are stressing the legal framework, which remains vital to ensuring sustainable water supplies now and into the future. Here, the history behind water resources management in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana provides the foundation for the laws in place today. Although all four states share regulatory features, nuances specific to each state have tremendously affected their governance structures and ability to adapt to changing dynamics. Although a challenge to meet these changing dynamics, collaborative efforts offer creative opportunities for meeting current and future needs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Effects of Mineral Impurities and Heat on Uranium(VI) Sorption onto Bentonite (Final Report)

Most nuclear waste disposal options include compacted bentonite, consisting of montmorillonite clay, as part of a barrier system to minimize contaminant mobility. Uranium (U) is the primary element in spent nuclear fuel, and from an environmental perspective, a potential contaminant of water resources. Furthermore, uranium may control nuclear fuel degradation rates and the consequent release of other radioactive contaminants based on its diffusive transport away from waste canisters. Uranium sorption onto clay and other mineral surfaces is expected to limit U(VI) mobility in these systems. However, at this point a prediction of U(VI) sorption and transport behavior in performance assessment (PA) models is complicated by a series of factors, such as: (1) the presence of various U(VI) solution species with different charges and sorption characteristics; (2) the complex microstructure of montmorillonite clay resulting in two types of clay porosities and multiple sorption sites; (3) the largely unknown effects of bentonite mineral impurities on pore water chemistry, U(VI) sorption and diffusion behavior; and (4) the potential impacts of heat, generated by the decay of spent fuel, on mineralogical and microstructural transformations, and any subsequent effects on radionuclide sorption and mobility. In this project, we investigated the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion onto montmorillonite before and after mineral exposure to heat. Overall, our main goals were to: 1. Gain a mechanistic understanding of the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion in montmorillonite/bentonite at variable chemical conditions, and before and after mineral exposure to heat; and to 2. Work towards the development of new surface complexation and diffusion models to predict U(VI) sorption and mobility in montmorillonite/bentonite while accounting for the impacts of calcite impurities and heat. In order to achieve these goals, we pursued the following research objectives and tasks: 1. Characterize the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption onto Na-montmorillonite, and evaluate if and how these effects change due to solids’ exposure to heat (Task 1). 2. Characterize U(VI) surface speciation in solid samples from Task 1, with a particular focus on U(VI) precipitates and co-precipitates (Task 2). 3. Test the relevance of observed changes in U(VI) sorption characteristics for U(VI) diffusive transport behavior in bentonite barriers (Task 3). 4. Evaluate the exclusion of anionic U(VI) solution complexes from clay nanopores (Task 4). 5. Building on Tasks 1-4, start the development of new surface complexation and reactive transport models that can simulate and predict U(VI) sorption and diffusion in complex bentonite systems (Task 5). A detailed description of all tasks, and their specific results and conclusions is provided in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Contesting with the Ganges Water Machine in South Asia: Theory versus Reality

Recently, there has been much interest in how to manage the water resources of the Ganges River Basin (GRB), the cradle of Asian civilization, currently supporting >500 million people. This also includes cleaning up the Ganges river, regarded as one of the most polluted mega-rivers of the world. Historically, the transboundary Ganges river and its tributaries, flowing through India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, have become extensively polluted and disrupted, mostly because of river engineering and increased discharge of industrial and urban waste. Compounding the problem, in the past few decades, intense groundwater abstraction from the GRB aquifers has led to unprecedented groundwater level depletion in some locations. At present, the GRB groundwater levels are strongly influenced by depth-dependent abstraction, which is predicted to intensify in the future, given the increasing water demand. Therefore, with impending climate change, designing the coupled river water–groundwater management necessary to meet the goal for sustainable access to clean water for a huge population, has become an arduous challenge.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hydrologic Regionalization under Data Scarcity: Implications for Streamflow Prediction

Continuous streamflow prediction is crucial in many applications of water resources planning and management. However, streamflow prediction is challenging, particularly in data-scarce regions. Here, we demonstrate an approach to regionalize the flow duration curve for predicting daily streamflow in the data-scare region of the central Himalayas. We developed a regression-based model to estimate streamflow at various segments of a flow duration curve by incorporating basin characteristics and climate variables. This study analyzes the sensitivities of proximity and characteristics between the donor (gauged) and receptor (ungauged) basins for time-series streamflow prediction. Our results show that regionalization techniques perform better in low to medium flows over high flows. Our findings are significant in the central Himalayan regional context to inform operational and management decisions in water sector projects like hydropower plants, which generally rely on low-to-medium streamflow information. Although the quantitative results are region-specific, the approach and insights are generalizable to the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing Drought Behavior in the Colorado River Basin Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Drought is a pressing issue for the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the social and economic value of water resources in the region and the significant uncertainty of future drought under climate change. Here, we use climate simulations from various Earth System Models (ESMs) to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model and project multiple drought indicators for the sub-watersheds within the CRB. We apply an unsupervised machine learning (ML) based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization using K-means clustering (NMFk) to synthesize the simulated historical, future, and change in drought indicators. The unsupervised ML approach can identify sub-watersheds where key changes to drought indicator behavior occur, including shifts in snowpack, snowmelt timing, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. While changes in future precipitation vary across ESMs, the results indicate that the Upper CRB will experience increasing evaporative demand and surface-water scarcity, with some locations experiencing a shift from a radiation-limited to a water-limited evaporation regime in the summer. Large shifts in peak runoff are observed in snowmelt-dominant sub-watersheds, with complete disappearance of the snowmelt signal for some sub-watersheds. The work demonstrates the utility of the NMFk algorithm to efficiently identify behavioral changes of drought indicators across space and time and to quickly analyze and interpret hydro climate model results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Field-scale estimation of soil properties from spectral induced polarization tomography

Estimates of soil properties such as Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC), water content, grain size characteristics, and permeability are important in geotechnical engineering, water resources, and agriculture. We develop a non-intrusive approach to estimate these properties in the field using spectral induced polarization (SIP) tomography. This geophysical method provides information about the frequency dependence of the complex electrical conductivity of porous media. Using 18 soil samples collected from a Bordeaux vineyard, we first conducted a laboratory study using SIP over the frequency range 10 mHz-45 kHz. The laboratory data were used to confirm the accuracy of a recently developed dynamic Stern layer petrophysical model. The results are consistent with published values from previous works using soils. A comparison was made by comparing the field complex conductivity spectra and the experimental data at two locations where core samples were obtained. The model was then used in concert with field data to image the spatial distribution of CEC, water content, permeability, and mean grain size along a vineyard transect. For clay and sandy textures found in the field, measured and estimated CEC agree rather well (from 6 to 40% discrepancy). Furthermore, our approach provides an efficient way to estimate important soil properties in a non-invasive manner, in high resolution, and over field-relevant scales of the critical zone of the Earth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monthly Sewer Monitoring Report for LLNL Livermore Site, April 2020

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collects effluent samples from its sewer outfall at the B196 Sewer Monitoring Station (SMS). Effluent flow-proportional composite samples are collected at the SMS on a daily (midnight-to-midnight), weekly (Thursday through Wednesday), and “monthly” (composited from daily) basis; effluent grab samples are also collected each month at that same location. Certified contract laboratories analyzes these compliance samples, and results (Tables 1–3) are used to establish LLNL compliance with the 2019–2020 Wastewater Discharge Permit (Permit 1250) granted by the City of Livermore Water Resources Division (WRD). Supplemental analyses for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and total suspended solids (TSS) are performed onsite and reported (Table 4) for the calculation and assessment of sewer service charges. Quarterly, effluent is sampled for metals (24-hour composite) and cyanide (grab sample) concentrations (mg/L). The results are presented in Table 5. In addition to the sampling noted above, the SMS continuously monitors LLNL sewage effluent in real-time for flow rate, pH, metals, and radioactivity. Standard measurement methods are used to monitor flow and pH to determine permit compliance. Unique nonstandard analytical methods monitor for the presence of metals and radioactivity using x-ray fluorescence (XRF) and gamma spectroscopy, respectively. If an anomalous condition is detected by the monitoring system, an alarm activates LLNL’s Sewer Diversion Facility (SDF) and Livermore Water Reclamation Plant (LWRP) operators are notified that a potential release has occurred.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drought Impacts on Hydroelectric Power Generation in the Western United States

The Western United States experiences large fluctuations in rain and snowfall from year to year, affecting river flows and reservoir levels throughout the region. This interannual variability in water resources leaves a strong signature on total annual energy generated by the region’s fleet of hydroelectric dams. In a wet year, like 2011, hydroelectric power can meet 30 percent of annual western electricity demand. That contribution can drop below 20 percent during severe drought years. Characterizing the contribution of hydroelectric power to the western generation portfolio during drought is crucial to understanding the resilience of the hydropower sector to climate-related risk, both now and in the future. This report analyzes the impacts of historical western droughts on hydroelectric power production by combining two decades’ worth of annual generation—recorded at more than 600 hydroelectric power plants—with historical climate data developed for distinct hydropower subregions of the West. The most extreme impacts of drought on hydroelectric power are found at individual dams where reservoir levels are so low that released water and thus generation becomes severely restricted. These isolated cases often receive widespread media attention, leading to a common misconception that hydroelectric power is an unreliable technology whose role will diminish over time as the western climate produces longer and more severe droughts. Yet, when aggregated to the scale of the West, the observational records of hydropower generation reveal a different story. Even during the most severe droughts experienced since the turn of the century, the western hydropower fleet sustained more than 80% of its typical annual generation. Observational data indicate that drought in 2021 led to the worst year for hydropower generation in the West since 2001, with total generation approximately 16 percent below the 21st century two-decade average. The year 2021 was particularly severe in California (second worst hydro year of last two decades, ~48 percent below average) and Oregon (worst hydro year of last two decades), while generation in Washington and Idaho was affected to a lesser degree (~12 percent below average for combined region). The year 2001 remains the year of lowest western hydropower generation of the twenty-first century so far, owing to extreme drought in the Pacific Northwest, where about two-thirds of western hydropower capacity is located. The primary reason for this relative stability is the diversity of weather across the West; drought rarely impairs hydroelectric power across all river basins at the same time.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Contrasting Capability of Single Atom Palladium for Thermocatalytic versus Electrocatalytic Nitrate Reduction Reaction

The occurrence of high concentrations of nitrate in various water resources is a significant environmental and human health threat, demanding effective removal technologies. Single atom alloys (SAAs) have emerged as a promising bimetallic material architecture in various thermocatalytic and electrocatalytic schemes including nitrate reduction reaction (NRR). This study suggests that there exists a stark contrast between thermocatalytic (T-NRR) and electrocatalytic (E-NRR) pathways that resulted in dramatic differences in SAA performances. Among Pd/Cu nanoalloys with varying Pd–Cu ratios from 1:100 to 100:1, Pd/Cu (1:100) SAA exhibited the greatest activity (TOF Pd = 2 min –1 ) and highest N 2 selectivity (94%) for E-NRR, while the same SAA performed poorly for T-NRR as compared to other nanoalloy counterparts. DFT calculations demonstrate that the improved performance and N 2 selectivity of Pd/Cu (1:100) in E-NRR compared to T-NRR originate from the higher stability of NO 3 * in electrocatalysis and a lower N 2 formation barrier than NH due to localized pH effects and the ability to extract protons from water. Here, this study establishes the performance and mechanistic differences of SAA and nanoalloys for T-NRR versus E-NRR.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗