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Results for “Variational inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1977

Chemistry of Apollo 12 mare basalts - Magma types and fractionation processes

Major and trace element data for a large suite of petrographically diverse Apollo 12 mare basalts are presented, and magma types sampled at the Apollo 12 site are characterized. The data confirm earlier classifications of the basalts into olivine, pigeonite, ilmenite, and feldspathic basalts. The olivine and pigeonite basalts are shown to be comagnetic and related by olivine fractionation. The other types, which differ in trace element and isotopic characteristics, are derived from different sources within the lunar interior. The spatial relations between the main basalt types are discussed in terms of local cratering events, and it is suggested that the younger ilmenite basalts overlie the olivine-pigeonite basalts. The role of olivine-dominated near-surface crystal fractionation in causing chemical variation is examined, and a relation between inferred cooling rate and the position of a sample in the fractionation sequence is determined.

Rhodes, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

High-altitude atomic nitrogen densities

Theoretical calculations of the seasonal and diurnal variations of atomic nitrogen are compared with measurements made by the open source neutral mass spectrometer on the AE-C satellite. With the simultaneous measurements of molecular nitrogen and atomic oxygen densities as input, model calculations of odd nitrogen densities predict the same trends in atomic nitrogen as those observed. From these comparisons it is inferred that horizontal transport significantly reduces the diurnal variation of atomic nitrogen. Estimates are given of the sensitivity of atomic nitrogen densities to variations in the photoelectron flux, the neutral temperatures, and the neutral winds.

Oran, E. S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Spatial dependences in the distant solar wind: Pioneers 10 and 11

Pioneer 10, 11 observations of the solar wind and magnetic field between 1 and 20 AU are reviewed. Spatial dependences, which are emphasized, must be inferred in the presence of large temporal variations including solar cycle effects. The separation of spatial and temporal dependences is achieved principally through the use of multipoint observations including baseline measurements at 1 AU. Measurements of the solar wind parameters (radial speed, flux, proton temperature) and of the magnetic field magnitude and components are compared with two theories, the Parker theory which assumes radial, azimuthally symmetric flow and the Goldstein-Jokipii theory which includes effects associated with stream-stream interactions. The observed radial gradients in the proton density and velocity and the magnetic field are consistent with the Parker model. A qualitative dependence of field magnitude on heliomagnetic latitude, i.e., referred to the observed location of the heliospheric current sheet, was derived. The field strength was found to decrease with distance from the current sheet.

Smith, E. J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference of heterogeneous epidemic models: Application to COVID-19 spread accounting for long-term care facilities

Here we propose a high dimensional Bayesian inference framework for learning heterogeneous dynamics of a COVID-19 model, with a specific application to the dynamics and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside long-term care (LTC) facilities. We develop a heterogeneous compartmental model that accounts for the heterogeneity of the time-varying spread and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside LTC facilities, which is characterized by time-dependent stochastic processes and time-independent parameters in ~ 1500 dimensions after discretization. To infer these parameters, we use reported data on the number of confirmed, hospitalized, and deceased cases with suitable post-processing in both a deterministic inversion approach with appropriate regularization as a first step, followed by Bayesian inversion with proper prior distributions. To address the curse of dimensionality and the ill-posedness of the high-dimensional inference problem, we propose use of a dimension-independent projected Stein variational gradient descent method, and demonstrate the intrinsic low-dimensionality of the inverse problem. We present inference results with quantified uncertainties for both New Jersey and Texas, which experienced different epidemic phases and patterns. Moreover, we also present forecasting and validation results based on the empirical posterior samples of our inference for the future trajectory of COVID-19.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1980

Time spectral analysis of midlatitude disturbances in the Martian atmosphere

Time-spectral and cross-spectral analyses are used to investigate synoptic pressure variations in the Viking-2 pressure, wind, and temperature data for selected portions of the Mars fall, winter, and spring seasons. Estimates of the phase relationships between the highly coherent pressure, wind, and temperature oscillations are obtained, and found to be very similar to those expected for baroclinic waves and to those obtained from terrestrial surface data. Phase speeds and zonal wavenumbers are inferred by interpreting the pressure and meridional wind variations in terms of eastward-traveling quasi-geostrophic waves.

Barnes, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Persistent Sub-Yearly Chromospheric Variations in Lower Main-Sequence Stars: Tau Booe and alpha Com

The recent discoveries of extrasolar planetary systems around lower main-sequence stars such as tau Booe (HD 120136) has prompted further investigation into their stellar activity. A cursory analysis of tau Booe for cyclic chromospheric activity, based on its 30-yr record of Ca 2 H and K fluxes obtained as part of the HK Project from Mount Wilson Observatory, finds an intermediate, sub-yearly period (approximately 117 d) in chromospheric activity in addition to, and separate from, both its rotation (3.3 d) and long-term variability. As a persistent subyearly period in surface magnetic activity is unprecedented, we investigate this apparent anomaly further by examining chromospheric activity levels of other stars with similar mass, searching for variability in chromospheric activity with periods of less than one year, but longer than measured or predicted rotation. An examination of the time series of 40 mid-to-late F dwarfs yielded one other star for further analysis: alpha Com (HD 114378, P approximately 132 d). The variations for these two stars were checked for persistence and coherence. Based on these determinations, we eliminate the possibilities of rotation, long-term activity cycle, and the evolution of active regions as the cause of this variation in both stars. In particular, for tau Booe we infer that the phenomenon may be chromospheric in origin; however, beyond this, it is difficult to identify anything further regarding the cause of the activity variations, or even whether the observed modulation in the two stars have the same origin.

Maulik, Davesh↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble variational Fokker-Planck methods for data assimilation

Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process. This work introduces the Variational Fokker-Planck (VFP) framework for data assimilation, a general approach that includes previously known particle flow filters as special cases. The McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process that transforms particles is defined via an optimal drift that depends on the selected diffusion term. It is established that the underlying probability density - sampled by the ensemble of particles - converges to the Bayesian posterior probability density. For a finite number of particles the optimal drift contains a regularization term that nudges particles toward becoming independent random variables. Based on this analysis, we derive computationally-feasible approximate regularization approaches that penalize the mutual information between pairs of particles, and avoid particle collapse. Moreover, the diffusion plays a role akin to a particle rejuvenation approach that aims to alleviate particle collapse. The VFP framework is very flexible. Different assumptions on prior and intermediate probability distributions can be used to implement the optimal drift, and localization and covariance shrinkage can be applied to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. A robust implicit-explicit method is discussed for the efficient integration of stiff McKean- Vlasov-Itˆo processes. Here, the effectiveness of the VFP framework is demonstrated on three progressively more challenging test problems, namely the Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 and the quasi-geostrophic equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Inferring demographic and selective histories from population genomic data using a 2-step approach in species with coding-sparse genomes: an application to human data

Abstract The demographic history of a population, and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of newly arising mutations in functional genomic regions, are fundamental factors dictating both genetic variation and evolutionary trajectories. Although both demographic and DFE inference has been performed extensively in humans, these approaches have generally either been limited to simple demographic models involving a single population, or, where a complex population history has been inferred, without accounting for the potentially confounding effects of selection at linked sites. Taking advantage of the coding-sparse nature of the genome, we propose a 2-step approach in which coalescent simulations are first used to infer a complex multi-population demographic model, utilizing large non-functional regions that are likely free from the effects of background selection. We then use forward-in-time simulations to perform DFE inference in functional regions, conditional on the complex demography inferred and utilizing expected background selection effects in the estimation procedure. Throughout, recombination and mutation rate maps were used to account for the underlying empirical rate heterogeneity across the human genome. Importantly, within this framework it is possible to utilize and fit multiple aspects of the data, and this inference scheme represents a generalized approach for such large-scale inference in species with coding-sparse genomes.

Soni, Vivak (ORCID:0000000294969562)↗

NASA NTRS1985

Curie isotherm surfaces inferred from high-altitude magnetic anomaly data

Two-dimensional Curie depth models along two sections across the western United States are derived using an equivalent layer magnetization model derived from Magsat data, and the results are used to constrain finite element thermal models developed by Mayhew and Majer (1980). Regional heat flow variations predicted by the models compare favorably with those inferred from direct measurements. The methodology is applied to upward-continued aeromagnetic data, and the results are found to be in good agreement with previous Curie depth estimates and average measured heat flow.

Mayhew, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Geophysical inferences of thermal-chemical structures in the lower mantle

Lateral variations of the temperature field in the lower mantle have been reconstructed using new results in mineral physics and seismic tomographic data. We show that, with the application of high-pressure experimental values of thermal expansivity and of sound velocities, the slow seismic anomalies in the lower mantle under the Pacific and Africa can be converted into realistic-looking plume structures with large dimensions of 0(1000 km). The outer fringes of the plumes have an excess temperature of around 400 K. In the core of the plumes are found tonguelike structures with extremely high thermal anomalies. These values can exceed 1200 K and are too high to be explained on the basis of thermal anomalies alone. We suggest that these major plumes in the deep mantle may be driven by both thermal and chemical buoyancies or that enhanced conductive heat-transfer may be important there.

Yuen, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A first look at atmospheric dynamics and temperature variations on Titan.

Pollack (1973) has used a radiative equilibrium model to match radiometric data for Titan and infers the atmospheric mass, composition, opacity, and gross vertical thermal structure. These results are used to estimate the atmospheric temperature variations by means of scaling analysis, taking into account dynamics both for a baroclinic wave regime and for an axially symmetric circulation regime. Horizontal temperature variations of the atmosphere and surface are found to be very small, and the circulation is found to be weak and probably axially symmetric. The small temperature variations appear to preclude the storage of volatiles in polar caps, so that the present atmospheric methane content may be due to a balance between outgassing and photodissociation.

Leovy, C. B.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Through-the-thickness fatigue crack closure behavior in an aluminum alloy

The variation in fatigue crack closure behavior across the thickness of aluminum alloy specimens was investigated. The specimen geometries examined were the middle crack tension M(T) and compact tension C(T). The fatigue crack closure behavior was determined using remote displacement and strain gages, near tip strain gages, and fatigue striations. A hybrid experimental/numerical method was also used to infer the crack opening loads. The results indicate a variation in crack opening load, of 0.2 in the specimen interior to 0.4 to 0.5 at the surface.

Dawicke, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Through-the-thickness fatigue crack closure behavior in an aluminum alloy

Dawicke, D. S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

MetaPop: a pipeline for macro- and microdiversity analyses and visualization of microbial and viral metagenome-derived populations

Abstract Background Microbes and their viruses are hidden engines driving Earth’s ecosystems from the oceans and soils to humans and bioreactors. Though gene marker approaches can now be complemented by genome-resolved studies of inter-(macrodiversity) and intra-(microdiversity) population variation, analytical tools to do so remain scattered or under-developed. Results Here, we introduce MetaPop, an open-source bioinformatic pipeline that provides a single interface to analyze and visualize microbial and viral community metagenomes at both the macro - and microdiversity levels. Macrodiversity estimates include population abundances and α- and β-diversity. Microdiversity calculations include identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms, novel codon-constrained linkage of SNPs, nucleotide diversity ( π and θ ), and selective pressures (pN/pS and Tajima’s D ) within and fixation indices ( F ST ) between populations. MetaPop will also identify genes with distinct codon usage. Following rigorous validation, we applied MetaPop to the gut viromes of autistic children that underwent fecal microbiota transfers and their neurotypical peers. The macrodiversity results confirmed our prior findings for viral populations (microbial shotgun metagenomes were not available) that diversity did not significantly differ between autistic and neurotypical children. However, by also quantifying microdiversity, MetaPop revealed lower average viral nucleotide diversity ( π ) in autistic children. Analysis of the percentage of genomes detected under positive selection was also lower among autistic children, suggesting that higher viral π in neurotypical children may be beneficial because it allows populations to better “bet hedge” in changing environments. Further, comparisons of microdiversity pre- and post-FMT in autistic children revealed that the delivery FMT method (oral versus rectal) may influence viral activity and engraftment of microdiverse viral populations, with children who received their FMT rectally having higher microdiversity post-FMT. Overall, these results show that analyses at the macro level alone can miss important biological differences. Conclusions These findings suggest that standardized population and genetic variation analyses will be invaluable for maximizing biological inference, and MetaPop provides a convenient tool package to explore the dual impact of macro - and microdiversity across microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Signatures of optimal codon usage in metabolic genes inform budding yeast ecology

Reverse ecology is the inference of ecological information from patterns of genomic variation. One rich, heretofore underutilized, source of ecologically relevant genomic information is codon optimality or adaptation. Bias toward codons that match the tRNA pool is robustly associated with high gene expression in diverse organisms, suggesting that codon optimization could be used in a reverse ecology framework to identify highly expressed, ecologically relevant genes. To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationship between optimal codon usage in the classic galactose metabolism ( GAL ) pathway and known ecological niches for 329 species of budding yeasts, a diverse subphylum of fungi. We find that optimal codon usage in the GAL pathway is positively correlated with quantitative growth on galactose, suggesting that GAL codon optimization reflects increased capacity to grow on galactose. Optimal codon usage in the GAL pathway is also positively correlated with human-associated ecological niches in yeasts of the CUG-Ser1 clade and with dairy-associated ecological niches in the family Saccharomycetaceae. For example, optimal codon usage of GAL genes is greater than 85% of all genes in the genome of the major human pathogen Candida albicans (CUG-Ser1 clade) and greater than 75% of genes in the genome of the dairy yeast Kluyveromyces lactis (family Saccharomycetaceae). We further find a correlation between optimization in the GAL actose pathway genes and several genes associated with nutrient sensing and metabolism. This work suggests that codon optimization harbors information about the metabolic ecology of microbial eukaryotes. This information may be particularly useful for studying fungal dark matter—species that have yet to be cultured in the lab or have only been identified by genomic material.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kilonova Detectability with Wide-field Instruments

Abstract Kilonovae are ultraviolet, optical, and infrared transients powered by the radioactive decay of heavy elements following a neutron star merger. Joint observations of kilonovae and gravitational waves can offer key constraints on the source of Galactic r -process enrichment, among other astrophysical topics. However, robust constraints on heavy element production require rapid kilonova detection (within ∼1 day of merger) as well as multiwavelength observations across multiple epochs. In this study, we quantify the ability of 13 wide-field-of-view instruments to detect kilonovae, leveraging a large grid of over 900 radiative transfer simulations with 54 viewing angles per simulation. We consider both current and upcoming instruments, collectively spanning the full kilonova spectrum. The Roman Space Telescope has the highest redshift reach of any instrument in the study, observing kilonovae out to z ∼ 1 within the first day post-merger. We demonstrate that BlackGEM, DECam, GOTO, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s LSST, ULTRASAT, VISTA, and WINTER can observe some kilonovae out to z ∼ 0.1 (∼475 Mpc), while DDOTI, MeerLICHT, PRIME, Swift/UVOT, and ZTF are confined to more nearby observations. Furthermore, we provide a framework to infer kilonova ejecta properties following nondetections and explore variation in detectability with these ejecta parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1971

Coronagraphic observations of an enhanced coronal region. I - Fe XIII and Ni XV emission line data.

Observation of nine coronal emission lines representing five stages of Fe ionization and one stage of Ni in an enhanced coronal region. The data from these observations are presented along with a density model of the enhanced region obtained from the Fe XIII and Ni XV emission line ratios as a function of position angle. The electron densities obtained from Fe XIII lines range from 10 to the 8th to 10 to the 9th per cu cm, and are slightly lower for Ni XV line data. Estimates of the variation of temperature over the enhanced region are inferred from the observed line intensities.

Fisher, R.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Helium abundance of the sun.

Critical review of the four methods that have been used to estimate the ratio of helium to hydrogen in the sun - the solar neutrino flux, spectral intensity of helium lines in prominences and the chromosphere, elemental abundance of solar cosmic rays, and variations of solar wind He/H. At present the measured value for the neutrino flux cannot be explained by any of the theoretical models of the sun, and thus the neutrino measurements cannot yield an estimate of He/H. Helium line intensity measurements give the most accurate values for He/H now available - i.e., 5 to 8% helium by number. However, these results refer to the chromosphere and prominences only, and questions of spatial and temporal variations of the observed quantities and of the inferred helium abundances have not yet been dealt with adequately.

Hirshberg, J.↗