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At least 253 records · Page 14

Variational Information Planning for Sequential Decision Making

We consider the setting of sequential decision making where, at each stage, potential actions are evaluated based on expected reduction in posterior uncertainty, given by mutual information (MI). As MI typically lacks a closed form, we propose an approach which maintains variational approximations of, both, the posterior and MI utility. Our planning objective extends an established variational bound on MI to the setting of sequential planning. The result, variational information planning (VIP), is an efficient method for sequential decision making. We further establish convexity of the variational planning objective and, under conditional exponential family approximations, we show that the optimal MI bound arises from a relaxation of the well-known exponential family moment matching property. Here, we demonstrate VIP for sensor selection, experiment design, and active learning, where it meets or exceeds methods requiring more computation, or those specialized to the task.

Pacheco, Jason↗

A New Paradigm for Quality Metrics

SMA metrics have been traditionally represented as either leading and lagging indicators. Traditional ways of viewing these metrics and trending the data is via graphs which reflect one attribute in each graph. The KSC Independent Assessment Team developed a non-traditional method for expressing variation as a ratio (the deviation between the Expected and Actual). This method allows different measures to be plotted on the same graph for trending and comparison to provide a holistic view across a particular theme or discipline. Since all measurements are a ratio of variation and dimensionless, this variation-based metrics approach can be used a new analytical tool which is complimentary to existing value-added metrics tools.

Dimensionless↗

The predictive information obtained by testing multiple software versions

Multiversion programming is a redundancy approach to developing highly reliable software. In applications of this method, two or more versions of a program are developed independently by different programmers and the versions are combined to form a redundant system. One variation of this approach consists of developing a set of n program versions and testing the versions to predict the failure probability of a particular program or a system formed from a subset of the programs. The precision that might be obtained, and also the effect of programmer variability if predictions are made over repetitions of the process of generating different program versions, are examined.

Lee, Larry D.↗

A parameter robust LQG design synthesis with applications to control of flexible structures

An asymptotic LQG design synthesis technique is described which explicitly includes a class of structured plant uncertainties by viewing plant parameter variations as an internal feedback loop. A direct structural relationship between this class of parameter uncertainties and the weighting matrices in the design of the LQG compensator is exploited by an asymptotic procedure in which either the regulator or the filter become insensitive to parameter variations. This asymptotic approach represents a generalization of the LQG/LTR technique. Controllers designed by this new LQG method and LQG/LTR are compared by application to a mass-spring-damper system which approximates the dynamics of flexible structures. For both colocated and noncolocated sensors and actuators configurations, the LQG/LTR design is extremely sensitive to parameter variations whereas the new LQG design allows considerably improved parameter robustness.

Tahk, Minjea↗

An adaptive remeshing method for finite element thermal analysis

A finite element remeshing approach that makes use of quadrilateral and triangular elements is described. The approach uses the solution on a previous mesh to create a new mesh. Meshes are completely unstructured with highly refined elements in regions of steep gradients and larger elements where gradients are smaller. Studies of convergence rates for heat conduction problems with exact solutions show that for problems with highly localized solution variations, the remeshing approach gives smaller solution errors with fewer unknowns than refinement of uniform, structured meshes.

Thornton, Earl A.↗

Adaptive remeshing method for finite-element thermal analysis

A finite-element remeshing approach that makes use of quadrilateral and triangular elements is described. The approach uses the solution on a previous mesh to create a new mesh. Meshes are completely unstructured with highly refined elements in regions of steep gradients and larger elements where gradients are smaller. Studies of convergence rates for heat conduction problems with exact solutions show that for problems with highly localized solution variations, the remeshing approach gives smaller solution errors with fewer unknowns than refinement of uniform, structured meshes.

Thornton, Earl A.↗

A modernized PDL approach for Ada software development

The desire to integrate newly available, graphically-oriented Computed Aided Software Engineering (CASE) tools with existing software design approaches is changing the way Program Design Language (PDL) or Process Description Language is used for large system development. In the approach documented here, Software Engineers use graphics tools to model the problem and to describe high level software design in diagrams. An Ada-based PDL is used to document low level design. Some results are provided along with an analysis for each of three smaller General Electric (GE) Ada development projects that utilized variations on this approach. Finally some considerations are identified for larger scale implementation.

Usavage, Paul, Jr.↗

Permeability and Strength Measurements on Sintered, Porous, Hollow Turbine Blades Made by the American Electro Metal Corporation under Office of Naval Research Contract N-ONR-295 (01)

An experimental investigation was made to determine the permeability and strength characteristics of a number of sintered, porous, hollow turbine rotor blades and to determine the effectiveness of the blade fabrication method on permeability control. The test blades were fabricated by the American Electro Metal Corporation under a contract with the Office of Naval Research, Department of the Navy, and were submitted to the NACA for testing. Of the 22 test blades submitted, ten were sintered but not coined, five were sintered and coined, and seven were sintered and not coined but contained perforated reinforcements integral with the blade shells. Representative samples of each group of blades were tested. Large variations in permeability in both chordwise and spanwise directions were found. Local deviations as large as 155 to -85 percent from prescribed values were found in chordwise permeability. Only one blade, an uncoined one, had a chordwise permeability variations which reasonably approached that specified. Even for this blade, local deviations exceeded 10 percent. Spanwise permeability, specified to be held constant, varied as much as 50 percent from root to tip for both an uncoined and a coined blade. Previous NACA analyses have shown that in order to maintain proper control of blade wall temperatures, permeability variations must not exceed plus or minus 10 percent. Satisfactory control of permeability in either the chordwise or the spanwise direction was not achieved in the blades tested. Spin tests made at room temperature for six blades revealed the highest material rupture strength to be 8926 pounds per square inch. This value is about one third the strength required for rotor blades in present-day turbojet engines. The lowest value of blade strength was 1436 pounds per square inch.

Richards, Hadley T.↗

Aerodynamic effects on outer ash deposition rates in second generation atmospheric pressure oxy-coal combustion systems

Recent measurements in scenarios representative of second generation atmospheric pressure oxy-coal combustion systems have shown a significant increase in ash deposition rates in comparison to combustion in air. However, the causative mechanisms behind this increase have not been well understood. To fill this void, well-characterized experiments including fuel and deposit particle size distributions (PSDs) were coupled with highly resolved numerical simulations to isolate the aerodynamic effects impacting the deposition process such that mechanisms could be hypothesized. Three combustion scenarios (AIR, OXY27, OXY70) spanning a factor of three variation in flue gas volumetric flow rates were simulated and the deposition characteristics (impaction rates, deposit PSD, temperature, residence times, capture rates) tracked/predicted using a customized deposition module. The measured deposit PSD was significantly different from the PSD of the parent fuel indicating significant physio-chemical transformations (coalescence and particle growth in particular) at play. The use of simplistic modeling approaches (swelling parameter variations) to model particle growth led to inaccurate deposit ash PSD and rate predictions. A more satisfactory agreement between the measurements and simulations was obtained when the functional form of the parent fuel PSD (spread parameter) was modified to conform closely to the deposit PSD while still ensuring the fidelity of temperature and velocity predictions. Based on the measured ash compositions, identical capture criteria were employed across all three scenarios. Here this study further supports the theory that the ash deposition rates in these systems are dominated by aerodynamic effects with the ash PSD playing a dominant role.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improved band gaps and structural properties from Wannier–Fermi–Löwdin self-interaction corrections for periodic systems

The accurate prediction of band gaps and structural properties in periodic systems continues to be one of the central goals of electronic structure theory. However, band gaps obtained from popular exchange–correlation (XC) functionals (such as LDA and PBE) are severely underestimated partly due to the spurious self-interaction error (SIE) inherent to these functionals. In this work, we present a new formulation and implementation of Wannier function-derived Fermi–Löwdin (WFL) orbitals for correcting the SIE in periodic systems. Since our approach utilizes a variational minimization of the self-interaction energy with respect to the Wannier charge centers (WCC), it is computationally more efficient than the HSE hybrid functional and other self-interaction corrections that require a large number of transformation matrix elements. Here, calculations on several (17 in total) prototypical molecular solids, semiconductors, and wide-bandgap materials show that our WFL self-interaction correction approach gives better band gaps and bulk moduli compared to semilocal functionals, largely due to the partial removal of self-interaction errors.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A variational justification of the assumed natural strain formulation of finite elements. I - Variational principles. II - The C(0) four-node plate element

The assumed natural strain formulation of finite elements is interpreted from a variational standpoint. The approach is based on hybrid extensions of the Reissner-type functional which uses the strains and displacements as independent fields. Consideration is restricted to linear elasticity. The four-node C(0) plate-bending quadrilateral is used as a specific example to illustrate the application of the present interpretation. A key finding is that any change in the strain-displacement interpolation from the variationally consistent interpolation must be associated in some way to the addition of incompatible displacement modes.

Militello, Carmelo↗

An Agnostic Approach to Building Empirical Type Ia Supernova Light Curves: Evidence for Intrinsic Chromatic Flux Variation Using Nearby Supernova Factory Data

We present a new empirical Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) model with three chromatic flux variation templates: one phase dependent and two phase independent. No underlying dust extinction model or patterns of intrinsic variability are assumed. Implemented with Stan and trained using spectrally binned Nearby Supernova Factory spectrophotometry, we examine this model's 2D, phase-independent flux variation space using two motivated basis representations. In both, the first phase-independent template captures variation that appears dust-like, while the second captures a combination of effectively intrinsic variability and second-order dust-like effects. We find that ≈13% of the modeled phase-independent flux variance is not dust-like. Previous empirical SN Ia models either assume an effective dust extinction recipe in their architecture, or only allow for a single mode of phase-independent variation. The presented results demonstrate such an approach may be insufficient, because it could "leak" noticeable intrinsic variation into phase-independent templates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimization of coupled systems: A critical overview of approaches

A unified overview is given of problem formulation approaches for the optimization of multidisciplinary coupled systems. The overview includes six fundamental approaches upon which a large number of variations may be made. Consistent approach names and a compact approach notation are given. The approaches are formulated to apply to general nonhierarchic systems. The approaches are compared both from a computational viewpoint and a managerial viewpoint. Opportunities for parallelism of both computation and manpower resources are discussed. Recommendations regarding the need for future research are advanced.

Balling, R. J.↗

Isotopologue Consistency of Semi-Empirically Computed InfraRed Line Lists and Further Improvement for Rare Isotopologues: CO2 and SO2 Case Studies.

The semi-empirical molecular rovibrational IR line lists, such as ExoMol, TheoReTs, and Ames, combine the experimental accuracy and theoretical power to reach better than 0.1 cm-1 accuracy for line positions and better than 80-90% agreement for line intensities. The quality of these existing semi-empirical IR lists allows further improvements of intensity and line positions for those unobserved minor isotopologues. This paper presents our new BTRHE (Best Theory + Reliable High-resolution Experiment) strategy implementation. For line intensity, the isotopologue consistency and the patterns of mass dependence in the Ames-296K SO2 and CO2 IR lists are quantitatively presented along the mass-inverse coordinates. The consistency and patterns are better than those in existing experimental data. The methodology proposed here can be used to identify inconsistencies, outliers, and mistakes in intensities, and help improve Effective Dipole Model (EDM) and molecular IR databases. We call for an experimental study on the 50006 and 60007 bands of CO2 628. For line position predictions, a simple approach combining the variational IR line lists with Effective Hamiltonian (EH) model may refine the effective rotational constants A0/B0/C0 and quartic centrifugal distortion constants of minor isotopologues. The prediction accuracy may be improved by two orders of magnitude, i.e. reaching 0-5 MHz prediction accuracy in the range of J<20-30, Ka<10-20, and 0.01-0.02 MHz accuracy for A0/B0/C0. Several important factors have been systematically investigated and discussed, e.g. convergence, uncertainties, higher order terms, fixing EH parameters, mass coordinates, etc. Amicrowave (MW) line set consisting of 644,636 strong transitions for all 30 isotopologues and corresponding refined EH(Ames) parameters are reported in the supplementary material. This approach may be easily extended to rovibrational bands, hot bands, and other molecular systems.

Xinchuan Huang↗

Input/output system identification - Learning from repeated experiments

The paper describes three approaches and possible variations for the determination of the Markov parameters for forced response data using general inputs. It is shown that, when the parameters in the solution procedure are bootstrapped, the results can be obtained very efficiently, but the errors propagate throughout all parameters. By arranging the data in a different form and using singular value decomposition, the resulting identified parameters are more accurate, in the least number of successive experiments, at the expense of a large matrix singular value decomposition. When a recursive procedure is employed, the calculations can be performed very efficiently, but the number of repetitions of the experiments is much greater for a given accuracy than for any of the previous approaches. An alternative formulation is proposed to combine the advantages of each of the approaches.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Investigation at supersonic speeds of the variation with Reynolds number and Mach number of the total, base, and skin-friction drag of seven boattail bodies of revolution designed for minimum wave drag

An investigation has been conducted in the Langley 9-inch supersonic tunnel to determine the effect of the variation with Reynolds number and Mach number of the total, base, and skin-friction drag at zero lift of seven boattail bodies of revolution designed for minimum wave drag according to NACA TN 2550. The tests covered a Reynolds number range from approximately 1.0 x 10(6) to 10.0 x 10(6) at Mach numbers of 1.62, 1.93, and 2.41, respectively. The results show that base drag and, in general, the total drag increase with increasing values of the ratio of base area to maximum area B/S(sub max), although the results reported in NACA TN 3054 showed that the wave drag decreased with increasing values of B/S(sub max). The laminar skin-friction drag is in agreement with the theoretical predictions used, and, within the Mach number range of these tests, the simple Blasius incompressible theory gives a satisfactory prediction. Except for values of B/S (sub max) near 1, the Reynolds number of transition increases with increasing Mach number and as this ratio approaches 1 this variation is seen to reverse. These variations in Reynolds number of transition with Mach number appear to be associated with the changes in pressure gradient over the rear of the bodies.

Bromm, August F , Jr↗